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At least 541 records · Page 30Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Deep Arctic Ocean warming during the last glacial cycle

In the Arctic Ocean, the cold and relatively fresh water beneath the sea ice is separated from the underlying warmer and saltier Atlantic Layer by a halocline. Ongoing sea ice loss and warming in the Arctic Ocean have demonstrated the instability of the halocline, with implications for further sea ice loss. The stability of the halocline through past climate variations is unclear. Here we estimate intermediate water temperatures over the past 50,000 years from the Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca values of ostracods from 31 Arctic sediment cores. From about 50 to 11 kyr ago, the central Arctic Basin from 1,000 to 2,500 m was occupied by a water mass we call Glacial Arctic Intermediate Water. This water mass was 1–2 °C warmer than modern Arctic Intermediate Water, with temperatures peaking during or just before millennial-scale Heinrich cold events and the Younger Dryas cold interval. We use numerical modelling to show that the intermediate depth warming could result from the expected decrease in the flux of fresh water to the Arctic Ocean during glacial conditions, which would cause the halocline to deepen and push the warm Atlantic Layer into intermediate depths. Although not modelled, the reduced formation of cold, deep waters due to the exposure of the Arctic continental shelf could also contribute to the intermediate depth warming.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2014

Modeling erosion of ice-rich permafrost bluffs along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast

The Arctic climate is changing, inducing accelerating retreat of ice-rich permafrost coastal bluffs. Along Alaska’s Beaufort Sea coast, erosion rates have increased roughly threefold from 6.8 to 19 m yr −1 since 1955 while the sea ice-free season has increased roughly twofold from 45 to 100 days since 1979. We develop a numerical model of bluff retreat to assess the relative roles of the length of sea ice-free season, sea level, water temperature, nearshore wavefield, and permafrost temperature in controlling erosion rates in this setting. The model captures the processes of erosion observed in short-term monitoring experiments along the Beaufort Sea coast, including evolution of melt notches, topple of ice wedge-bounded blocks, and degradation of these blocks. Model results agree with time-lapse imagery of bluff evolution and time series of ocean-based instrumentation. Erosion is highly episodic with 40% of erosion is accomplished during less than 5% of the sea ice-free season. Among the formulations of the submarine erosion rate we assessed, we advocate those that employ both water temperature and nearshore wavefield. As high water levels are a prerequisite for erosion, any future changes that increase the frequency with which water levels exceed the base of the bluffs will increase rates of coastal erosion. The certain increases in sea level and potential changes in storminess will both contribute to this effect. As water temperature also influences erosion rates, any further expansion of the sea ice-free season into the midsummer period of greatest insolation is likely to result in an additional increase in coastal retreat rates.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Telemetry reveals migratory drivers and disparate space use across seasons and age-groups in American horseshoe crabs

Identifying mechanisms that underpin animal migration patterns and examining variability in space use within populations is crucial for understanding population dynamics and management implications. In this study, we quantified the migration rates, seasonal changes in migratory connectivity, and residency across population demographics (age and sex) to understand the proximate cues of migration timing in American horseshoe crabs ( Limulus polyphemus ). Juvenile ( n = 25) and adult ( n = 70) horseshoe crabs were tracked with acoustic telemetry techniques for a 3-yr period in Moriches Bay, NY. Connectivity metrics and residency probability were quantified through spatial network analysis and empirically derived Markov Chain models (EDMC), respectively. The migratory probability of adult horseshoe crabs between Moriches Bay and the Atlantic Ocean was estimated to be 41.0% (95% CI: 34.0–59.8); in contrast, only 8% (95% CI: 1.2–31.6) of juveniles migrated into the ocean. Migration timing was influenced by the interaction of photoperiod and temperature, revealing seasonal differences in migration timing and a 50% narrower range of photoperiod and temperature over which fall migrations occurred compared to spring. Sex-specific differences in space use and connectivity within each season were largely absent; however, centralized habitats were important for maintaining connectivity across all seasons. EDMC results revealed that when standardized to the number of horseshoe crab detections on each receiver, the centrally located habitats in Moriches Bay and Inlet accounted for >50% of the total relative residency probability within most seasons, indicating these areas may be preferred by adult horseshoe crabs. Ontogenetic differences in maximum spatial extent, space use, and connectivity were observed in the bay, as juveniles exhibited lower linkages between locations ( n = 4) relative to adults ( n = 13) during the same temporal period. Our work highlights the application of novel quantitative approaches for addressing the movement dynamics of horseshoe crabs that can be readily applied to other taxa in the context of wildlife conservation.

New York↗
USGS2009

Stratigraphic controls on seawater intrusion and implications for groundwater management, Dominguez Gap area of Los Angeles, California, USA

Groundwater pumping has led to extensive water-level declines and seawater intrusion in coastal Los Angeles, California (USA). A SUTRA-based solute-transport model was developed to test the hydraulic implications of a sequence-stratigraphic model of the Dominguez Gap area and to assess the effects of water-management scenarios. The model is two-dimensional, vertical and follows an approximate flow line extending from the Pacific Ocean through the Dominguez Gap area. Results indicate that a newly identified fault system can provide a pathway for transport of seawater and that a stratigraphic boundary located between the Bent Spring and Upper Wilmington sequences may control the vertical movement of seawater. Three 50-year water-management scenarios were considered: (1) no change in water-management practices; (2) installation of a slurry wall; and (3) raising inland water levels to 7.6 m above sea level. Scenario 3 was the most effective by reversing seawater intrusion. The effects of an instantaneous 1-m sea-level rise were also tested using water-management scenarios 1 and 3. Results from two 100-year simulations indicate that a 1-m sea-level rise may accelerate seawater intrusion for scenario 1; however, scenario 3 remains effective for controlling seawater intrusion.

Hydrogeology Journal↗
USGS2012

Lu-Hf constraints on the evolution of lunar basalts

Very low Ti basalts and green glass samples from the moon show high Lu/Hf ratios and low Hf concentrations. Low-Ti lunar basalts show high and variable Lu/Hf ratios and higher Hf concentrations, whereas high-Ti lunar basalts show low Lu/Hf ratios and high Hf concentrations. KREEP basalts have constant Lu/Hf ratios and high but variable Hf concentrations. Using the Lu-Hf behavior as a constraint, we propose a model for the mare basalts evolution. This constraint requires extensive crystallization of the primary lunar magma ocean prior to formation of the lunar mare basalt sources and the KREEP basalts. Mare basalts are produced by the melting of the cumulate rocks, and KREEP basalts represent the residual liquid of the magma ocean. Lu and Hf concentrations and the Hf isotopic data of lunar rocks suggest that assimilation cannot be accepted as a major process to explain the diversity of the lunar mare basalts. The urKREEP hypothesis is also unnecessary. Both high- and low-Ti basalts show enough iron enrichment to be regarded as melting products of the last stage cumulate rocks from the lunar magma ocean. The KREEP basalts are also rich in iron and may be regarded as the final, residual liquid left after the crystallization of the major portion of the primary lunar magma ocean.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2011

Tidal Boundary Conditions in SEAWAT

SEAWAT, a U.S. Geological Survey groundwater flow and transport code, is increasingly used to model the effects of tidal motion on coastal aquifers. Different options are available to simulate tidal boundaries but no guidelines exist nor have comparisons been made to identify the most effective approach. We test seven methods to simulate a sloping beach and a tidal flat. The ocean is represented in one of the three ways: directly using a high hydraulic conductivity (high- K ) zone and indirect simulation via specified head boundaries using either the General Head Boundary (GHB) or the new Periodic Boundary Condition (PBC) package. All beach models simulate similar water fluxes across the upland boundary and across the sediment-water interface although the ratio of intertidal to subtidal flow is different at low tide. Simulating a seepage face results in larger intertidal fluxes and influences near-shore heads and salinity. Major differences in flow occur in the tidal flat simulations. Because SEAWAT does not simulate unsaturated flow the water table only rises via flow through the saturated zone. This results in delayed propagation of the rising tidal signal inland. Inundation of the tidal flat is delayed as is flow into the aquifer across the flat. This is severe in the high- K and PBC models but mild in the GHB models. Results indicate that any of the tidal boundary options are fine if the ocean-aquifer interface is steep. However, as the slope of that interface decreases, the high- K and PBC approaches perform poorly and the GHB boundary is preferable.

Ground Water↗
USGS2013

A kinematic model for the formation of the Siletz-Crescent forearc terrane by capture of coherent fragments of the Farallon and Resurrection plates

The volcanic basement of the Oregon and Washington Coast ranges has been proposed to represent a pair of tracks of the Yellowstone hotspot formed at a mid-ocean ridge during the early Cenozoic. This interpretation has been questioned on many grounds, especially that the range of ages does not match the offshore spreading rates and that the presence of continental coarse clastic sediments is difficult to reconcile with fast convergence rates between the oceanic plates and North America. Updates to basement geochronology and plate motion history reveal that these objections are much less serious than when they were first raised. Forward plate kinematic modeling reveals that predicted basement ages can be consistent with the observed range of about 55–49 Ma, and that the entire basement terrane can form within about 300 km of continental sources for clastic sediments. This kinematic model indicates that there is no firm reason to reject the near-ridge hotspot hypothesis on the basis of plate motions. A novel element of the model is the Resurrection plate, previously proposed to exist between the Farallon and Kula plates. By including the defunct Resurrection plate in our reconstruction, we are able to model the Farallon hotspot track as docking against the Oregon subduction margin starting about 53 Ma, followed by docking of the Resurrection track to the north starting about 48 Ma. Accretion of the Farallon plate fragment and partial subduction of the Resurrection fragment complicates the three-dimensional structure of the modern Cascadia forearc. We interpret the so-called “E” layer beneath Vancouver Island to be part of the Resurrection fragment. Our new kinematic model of mobile terranes within the Paleogene North American plate boundary allows reinterpretation of the three-dimensional structure of the Cascadia forearc and its relationship to ongoing seismotectonic processes.

Washington;Oregon↗
USGS2024

Global mercury concentrations in biota: Their use as a basis for a global biomonitoring framework

An important provision of the Minamata Convention on Mercury is to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of the adopted measures and its implementation. Here, we describe for the first time currently available biotic mercury (Hg) data on a global scale to improve the understanding of global efforts to reduce the impact of Hg pollution on people and the environment. Data from the peer-reviewed literature were compiled in the Global Biotic Mercury Synthesis (GBMS) database (>550,000 data points). These data provide a foundation for establishing a biomonitoring framework needed to track Hg concentrations in biota globally. We describe Hg exposure in the taxa identified by the Minamata Convention: fish, sea turtles, birds, and marine mammals. Based on the GBMS database, Hg concentrations are presented at relevant geographic scales for continents and oceanic basins. We identify some effective regional templates for monitoring methylmercury (MeHg) availability in the environment, but overall illustrate that there is a general lack of regional biomonitoring initiatives around the world, especially in Africa, Australia, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, and South Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Temporal trend data for Hg in biota are generally limited. Ecologically sensitive sites (where biota have above average MeHg tissue concentrations) have been identified throughout the world. Efforts to model and quantify ecosystem sensitivity locally, regionally, and globally could help establish effective and efficient biomonitoring programs. We present a framework for a global Hg biomonitoring network that includes a three-step continental and oceanic approach to integrate existing biomonitoring efforts and prioritize filling regional data gaps linked with key Hg sources. We describe a standardized approach that builds on an evidence-based evaluation to assess the Minamata Convention’s progress to reduce the impact of global Hg pollution on people and the environment.

Ecotoxicology↗
USGS2005

A Cenozoic diffuse alkaline magmatic province (DAMP) in the southwest Pacific without rift or plume origin

Common geological, geochemical, and geophysical characteristics of continental fragments of East Gondwana and adjacent oceanic lithosphere define a long-lived, low-volume, diffuse alkaline magmatic province (DAMP) encompassing the easternmost part of the Indo-Australian Plate, West Antarctica, and the southwest portion of the Pacific Plate. A key to generating the Cenozoic magmatism is the combination of metasomatized lithosphere underlain by mantle at only slightly elevated temperatures, in contrast to large igneous provinces where mantle temperatures are presumed to be high. The SW Pacific DAMP magmatism has been conjecturally linked to rifting, strike-slip faulting, mantle plumes, or hundreds of hot spots, but all of these associations have flaws. We suggest instead that sudden detachment and sinking of subducted slabs in the late Cretaceous induced Rayleigh-Taylor instabilities along the former Gondwana margin that in turn triggered lateral and vertical flow of warm Pacific mantle. The interaction of the warm mantle with metasomatized subcontinental lithosphere that characterizes much of the SW Pacific DAMP concentrates magmatism along zones of weakness. The model may also provide a mechanism for warming south Pacific mantle and resulting Cenozoic alkaline magmatism, where the oceanic areas are characterized primarily, but not exclusively, by short-lived hot spot tracks not readily explained by conventional mantle plume theory. This proposed south Pacific DAMP is much larger and longer-lived than previously considered.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗
USGS2013

Understanding processes controlling sediment transports at the mouth of a highly energetic inlet system (San Francisco Bay, CA)

San Francisco Bay is one of the largest estuaries along the U.S. West Coast and is linked to the Pacific Ocean through the Golden Gate, a 100 m deep bedrock inlet. A coupled wave, flow and sediment transport model is used to quantify the sediment linkages between San Francisco Bay, the Golden Gate, and the adjacent open coast. Flow and sediment transport processes are investigated using an ensemble average of 24 climatologically derived wave cases and a 24.8 h representative tidal cycle. The model simulations show that within the inlet, flow and sediment transport is tidally dominated and driven by asymmetry of the ebb and flood tides. Peak ebb velocities exceed the peak flood velocities in the narrow Golden Gate channel as a result of flow convergence and acceleration. Persistent flow and sediment gyres at the headland tips are formed that limit sediment transfer from the ebb-tidal delta to the inlet and into the bay. The residual transport pattern in the inlet is dominated by a lateral segregation with a large ebb-dominant sediment transport (and flow) prevailing along the deeper north side of the Golden Gate channel, and smaller flood dominant transports along the shallow southern margin. The seaward edge of the ebb-tidal delta largely corresponds to the seaward extent of strong tidal flows. On the ebb-tidal delta, both waves and tidal forcing govern flow and sediment transport. Wave focusing by the ebb-tidal delta leads to strong patterns of sediment convergence and divergence along the adjacent Ocean Beach.

California↗
USGS1981

Crustal processes of the Mid-Ocean Ridge

Independent geological and geophysical investigations of the Mid-Ocean Ridge system have begun to focus on the nature of the magma chamber system underlying its central axis. Thermal models predict the existence of a steady-state chamber beneath a thin crustal lid ranging in thickness from 2 to 13 kilometers. The only aspect of the system that these models fail to account for is the extremely slow spreading rates. Seismological studies reveal the existence of a low-velocity zone beneath segments of the East Pacific Rise, which is thought to correspond to a chamber system having a half-width of approximately 5 to 10 kilometers. These estimates compare favorably with those derived separately through petrological investigations of deep-sea drilling results, various sampling programs, and field and laboratory studies of ophiolites. The chamber is thought to be wing-shaped and to remain continuously open; it is thought to be fed from the center while simultaneously solidifying at the sides as spreading carries the two halves apart. Progressive fractionation occurs by crystal settling coupled with repeated replenishment and magma mixing in an open steady-state system. Near-bottom studies reveal that the zone of extrusion above the chamber is narrow, but its eruptive history is cyclic in nature, in conflict with the predictions of a steady-state model. On-bottom gravity data at 21°N on the East Pacific Rise reveal a negative gravity anomaly that may be related to the uppermost part of the chamber. The anomaly is only 2 kilometers wide and 1 kilometer below the sea floor. This feature may be associated with a short-term upper magma reservoir. The cyclic volcanic activity is directly related to the active phase of hydrothermal circulation responsible for the observed negative thermal anomaly. The volume of water associated with this circulation is equal to the entire ocean volume passing through the accretion zone approximately every 8 million years. This is about 0.5 percent of the world's rivers, but the effective transport rates of elements are comparable to those of rivers in that anomalies for individual elements are frequently between 100 and 1000 times the average river composition. The degree of subsurface dilution determines the final exit temperature and composition of the hydrothermal fluids, ranging from manganese domination at extreme dilution to iron at intermediate levels to sulfide deposition when low dilution occurs. The discovery of massive sulfide deposits on the East Pacific Rise is destined to have a profound impact on our understanding of ore-forming processes. Whether it will have any economic significance remains to be seen.

Science↗
USGS2014

Phytoplankton primary production in the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems

Estuaries are biogeochemical hot spots because they receive large inputs of nutrients and organic carbon from land and oceans to support high rates of metabolism and primary production. We synthesize published rates of annual phytoplankton primary production (APPP) in marine ecosystems influenced by connectivity to land – estuaries, bays, lagoons, fjords and inland seas. Review of the scientific literature produced a compilation of 1148 values of APPP derived from monthly incubation assays to measure carbon assimilation or oxygen production. The median value of median APPP measurements in 131 ecosystems is 185 and the mean is 252 g C m −2 yr −1 , but the range is large: from −105 (net pelagic production in the Scheldt Estuary) to 1890 g C m −2 yr −1 (net phytoplankton production in Tamagawa Estuary). APPP varies up to 10-fold within ecosystems and 5-fold from year to year (but we only found eight APPP series longer than a decade so our knowledge of decadal-scale variability is limited). We use studies of individual places to build a conceptual model that integrates the mechanisms generating this large variability: nutrient supply, light limitation by turbidity, grazing by consumers, and physical processes (river inflow, ocean exchange, and inputs of heat, light and wind energy). We consider method as another source of variability because the compilation includes values derived from widely differing protocols. A simulation model shows that different methods reported in the literature can yield up to 3-fold variability depending on incubation protocols and methods for integrating measured rates over time and depth. Although attempts have been made to upscale measures of estuarine-coastal APPP, the empirical record is inadequate for yielding reliable global estimates. The record is deficient in three ways. First, it is highly biased by the large number of measurements made in northern Europe (particularly the Baltic region) and North America. Of the 1148 reported values of APPP, 958 come from sites between 30 and 60° N; we found only 36 for sites south of 20° N. Second, of the 131 ecosystems where APPP has been reported, 37% are based on measurements at only one location during 1 year. The accuracy of these values is unknown but probably low, given the large interannual and spatial variability within ecosystems. Finally, global assessments are confounded by measurements that are not intercomparable because they were made with different methods. Phytoplankton primary production along the continental margins is tightly linked to variability of water quality, biogeochemical processes including ocean–atmosphere CO 2 exchange, and production at higher trophic levels including species we harvest as food. The empirical record has deficiencies that preclude reliable global assessment of this key Earth system process. We face two grand challenges to resolve these deficiencies: (1) organize and fund an international effort to use a common method and measure APPP regularly across a network of coastal sites that are globally representative and sustained over time, and (2) integrate data into a unifying model to explain the wide range of variability across ecosystems and to project responses of APPP to regional manifestations of global change as it continues to unfold.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS1998

Evidence for a subsurface ocean on Europa

Ground-based spectroscopy of Jupiter's moon Europa, combined with gravity data, suggests that the satellite has an icy crust roughly 150 km thick and a rocky interior. In addition, images obtained by the Voyager spacecraft revealed that Europa's surface is crossed by numerous intersecting ridges and dark bands (called lineae) and is sparsely cratered, indicating that the terrain is probably significantly younger than that of Ganymede and Callisto. It has been suggested that Europa's thin outer ice shell might be separated from the moon's silicate interior by a liquid water layer, delayed or prevented from freezing by tidal heating; in this model, the lineae could be explained by repetitive tidal deformation of the outer ice shell. However, observational confirmation of a subsurface ocean was largely frustrated by the low resolution (>2 km per pixel) of the Voyager images. Here we present high-resolution (54 m per pixel) Galileo spacecraft images of Europa, in which we find evidence for mobile 'icebergs'. The detailed morphology of the terrain strongly supports the presence of liquid water at shallow depths below the surface, either today or at some time in the past. Moreover, lower- resolution observations of much larger regions suggest that the phenomena reported here are widespread.

Nature↗
USGS1993

Modelling the seasonality of subsurface light and primary production in the Arabian Sea

Seasonal changes in mixed-layer depth and phytoplankton biomass in the Arabian Sea are assessed with climatologies of ship-based hydrographic measurements and ocean-color observations from satellite. At the close of the intermonsoons in November and especially May, the open Arabian Sea resembles the stereotypic, unperturbed tropical ocean, with a thin oligotrophic mixed layer and a pronounced subsurface chlorophyll maximum. Both the northeast and southwest monsoons disrupt this typical tropical hydrography through mixed-layer deepening and eutrophication in the central and northern Arabian Sea. Computations using a spectral model of light penetration suggest that seasonal changes in mixed-layer thickness and phytoplankton concentration result in pronounced fluctuations through the annual cycle in the radiant flux reaching the base of the mixed layer. At the close of the fall and spring intermonsoons the base of the model euphotic zone is in the thermocline across all of the open Arabian Sea. The euphotic zone appears to rise into the mixed layer of the northern Arabian Sea during both the winter and summer monsoons. Strong seasonality in total primary production and its partitioning between the mixed layer and thermocline is predicted byb a photo-synthesis-irradiance model for a site in the western Arabian Sea (14.36 ° N, 57.38° E). Modeled mixed-layer primary production depicts an intense peak for the southwest monsoon and a secondary northeast monsoon peak separated by intermonsoon period of low production. During the fall and spring intermonsoons, in the presence of a subsurface clorophyll maximum, the model estimate of primary production in the thermocline exceeds that in the mixed layer. Our model calculations suggest that the subsurface clorophyll maximum present in the Arabian Sea during the spring intermonsoon is a precursor of the regional, summer, phytoplankton bloom.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗
USGS2020

Research, monitoring, and evaluation of emerging issues and measures to recover the Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon ESU: January 2019 - December 2019

The portion of the Snake River fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha evolutionary significant unit (ESU) that spawns upstream of Lower Granite Dam transitioned from low to high abundance during 19922019 in association with U.S. Endangered Species Act recovery efforts and other federally mandated actions. This annual report focuses on (1) numeric and habitat use responses by natural- and hatchery-origin spawners, (2) phenotypic and numeric responses by natural-origin juveniles, and (3) use of a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) to search for fall Chinook salmon redds and carcasses. Spawners have located and used most of the available spawning habitat and that habitat is gradually approaching redd capacity. Timing of spawning and fry emergence have been relatively stable, but effects of density dependence are evident in juvenile life stages. Apparent abundance of juvenile fall Chinook salmon has increased and we noted the following responses: parr dispersal from riverine rearing habitat into Lower Granite Reservoir has become earlier; growth rate (g/d) and dispersal size of parr declined; and passage timing of smolts from the two Snake River reaches has become earlier and downstream movement rate faster. These findings coupled with stock-recruitment analyses presented in this report provide evidence for density-dependence in the Snake River reaches and in Lower Granite Reservoir that was influenced by the expansion of the recovery program. The long-term goal is to use this information in a comprehensive modeling effort to conduct action-effectiveness and uncertainty research and to inform Fish Population, Hydrosystem, Harvest, Hatchery, and Predation and Invasive Species Management Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation (RM&E) progams. In 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) shifted survey efforts in the Snake River toward deepwater redd searches and fish collection for parentage-based tagging (PBT) analyses because all unmanned aerial system (UAS) activities were suspended by the Department of the Interior two weeks into the spawning season. We counted 81 deepwater redds at 17 of the 29 sites surveyed. Redd depths averaged 3.6 m. We collected a total of 123 live fall Chinook salmon from 16 unique geographic locations that spanned 55 river kilometers. Forty-six fish were recovered at Eureka Bar (rkm 307.1) and Kirby Creek (rkm 352.0), which accounted for 37% of all collected fish in 2019. Most (73 fish) post-spawned salmon were collected from early to mid-November just after peak spawning. A summary of 2019 PBT results can be found in Appendix A.1. In 2019, we PIT tagged subyearling fall Chinook salmon in both the Snake and Clearwater rivers. In the Snake River, we tagged 410 fish with 8-mm tags, 666 fish with 9-mm tags, and 1,082 fish 12-mm tags. During seining, our recapture rate of previously tagged fish was slightly higher in the lower reach at 11.4% than in the upper reach at 10.6%. In an effort to represent more of the population through tagging, we tagged fish as small as 45 mm with 8-mm tags at one site in the upper reach. This allowed us to increase the number of fish tagged in that reach by 17.7%. An additional 10.6% of collected fish could have been tagged in the lower reach had we used 8-mm tags in that reach. In the Clearwater River, we tagged 2,451 subyearlings and recaptured 260 (10.6%) fish in the river and 66 fish (48 tagged by USGS, 18 tagged by the Nez Perce Tribe) at Lower Granite Dam during October to provide information for growth estimation. Within riverine habitats, growth in both length and mass were higher for fish tagged with 8-mm tags than with 9- and 12-mm tags. Estimated growth in length and mass of subyearlings was higher in Lower Granite Reservoir than in riverine habitats. We adapted existing statistical models used to estimate abundance of steelhead and spring/summer Chinook salmon for fall Chinook salmon passing Lower Granite Dam. Run reconstruction efforts to date at Lower Granite Dam for Snake River fall Chinook salmon have provided estimates of the number of returning adults but with no measure of uncertainty about the estimates. The objective of this study was to estimate the abundance, with uncertainty, of marked (coded-wire tagged CWT or adipose clipped) and unmarked fall Chinook salmon past Lower Granite Dam for return years 20032018. Estimating uncertainty is important for informing the state-space life cycle model (Chapter 5), which incorporates both observation and process uncertainty into parameter estimates. The coefficient of variation (CV) for log- abundance was 1.0% or less in all years, whereas the CV for abundance averaged 4.2% and ranged from 1.4% to 10.4% among years. Over the past five years, we have been developing a two-stage state-space life-cycle model for naturally produced fall Chinook salmon in the Snake River basin. Initial efforts focused on generating juvenile and adult abundance estimates, with estimates of uncertainty, for informing the life-cycle model. In this report we 1) describe the statistical life-cycle model and improvements made since our last report to the Independent Scientific Advisory Board (ISAB), 2) estimate the effects of covariates on key demographic parameters, and 3) use the fitted life- cycle model to simulate population trajectories under hydrosystem actions proposed for the NOAA 2020 Biological Opinion (hereafter, the Proposed Action). Major recent advancements to the model include revised juvenile abundance estimates, the ability to estimate smolt-to-adult return rates (SAR) separately for subyearling and yearling juvenile fall Chinook salmon, and improvements in the observation model for estimating age, sex, and outmigration structure in adult returns. We examined the effect of numerous environmental, hydrosystem, and ocean covariates on key demographic parameters but only a few covariates were significant. For the adult-to-juvenile transition, we found the maximum weekly river flows during the winter egg- incubation period had a significant negative effect on the juvenile outmigrant abundance from that brood year. For subyearling outmigrants, percent spill during the summer had a significant positive effect on SAR and the mean winter PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) had a significant negative effect on SAR. For yearling outmigrants, NPGO (North Pacific Gyre Oscillation) had a significant positive effect on SAR. We used the fitted model to simulate population trajectories under the Proposed Action, and the median 10-year geometric mean abundance was 8,222 female spawners (interquartile range: 2,592 26,714). Overall, the probability of quasi- extinction (probability of falling below 50 female spawners for 4 consecutive years) was low, with only 1.6% of all simulations having a quasi-extinction probability >0.95. Although quasi-extinction probability was low, we did not assess the additional effect of climate change, which would be expected to increase quasi-extinction probability.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2010

Multi-stage origin of the Coast Range ophiolite, California: Implications for the life cycle of supra-subduction zone ophiolites

The Coast Range ophiolite of California is one of the most extensive ophiolite terranes in North America, extending over 700 km from the northernmost Sacramento Valley to the southern Transverse Ranges in central California. This ophiolite, and other ophiolite remnants with similar mid-Jurassic ages, represent a major but short-lived episode of oceanic crust formation that affected much of western North America. The history of this ophiolite is important for models of the tectonic evolution of western North America during the Mesozoic, and a range of conflicting interpretations have arisen. Current petrologic, geochemical, stratigraphic, and radiometric age data all favor the interpretation that the Coast Range ophiolite formed to a large extent by rapid extension in the forearc region of a nascent subduction zone. Closer inspection of these data, however, along with detailed studies of field relationships at several locales, show that formation of the ophiolite was more complex, and requires several stages of formation. Our work shows that exposures of the Coast Range ophiolite preserve evidence for four stages of magmatic development. The first three stages represent formation of the ophiolite above a nascent subduction zone. Rocks associated with the first stage include ophiolite layered gabbros, a sheeted complex, and volcanic rocks vith arc tholeiitic or (roore rarely) low-K calc-alkaline affinities. The second stage is characterized by intrusive wehrlite-clinopyroxenite complexes, intrusive gabbros, Cr-rich diorites, and volcanic rocks with high-Ca boninitic or tholeiitic ankaramite affinities. The third stage includes diorite and quartz diorite plutons, felsic dike and sill complexes, and calc-alkaline volcanic rocks. The first three stages of ophiolite formation were terminated by the intrusion of mid-ocean ridge basalt dikes, and the eruption of mid-ocean ridge basalt or ocean-island basalt volcanic suites. We interpret this final magmatic event (MORB dikes) to represent the collision of an active spreading ridge. Subsequent reorganization of relative plate motions led to sinistral transpression, along with renewed subduction and accretion of the Franciscan Complex. The latter event resulted in uplift and exhumation of the ophiolite by the process of accretionary uplift.

California↗
USGS2000

Parameterizing century to model cultivated and noncultivated sites in the Loess region of western Iowa

One of the main questions remaining for global science involves the cycle of carbon among the atmosphere, oceans, and land. Scientists are trying to better determine the amount of carbon stored in and transferred between these three locations. This task has become more complex because in recent decades the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere has increased due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use changes. The amount of this increase is greater than the amount of carbon accumulating in the atmosphere and oceans. Many scientists are studying different terrestrial ecosystems to find this 'missing" carbon. One such project is the Mississippi Basin Carbon Project (MBCP) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). MBCP is studying the soils and sediments of the Mississippi River Basin, with an emphasis on understanding human influences on erosion and thus the movement of carbon within a landscape. One goal of the MBCP is to understand, at the field scale, the key processes of erosion and sedimentation, and thus the movement of carbon, in upland areas. Both field measurements and modeling efforts are being used for this purpose. On the modeling front, the Century Model is being used to describe the historical carbon dynamics for two field sites, an agricultural field and uncultivated prairie, located in the loess region of western Iowa. The objective of these modeling efforts is to recreate the carbon dynamics of the upper slope in each of these watersheds. The upper slope represents the area of a hillslope with the greatest potential erosion. This report describes how Century was parameterized to represent these two sites.

Iowa↗
USGS2011

Onshore and offshore geologic map of the Coal Oil Point area, southern California

Geologic maps that span the shoreline and include both onshore and offshore areas are potentially valuable tools that can lead to a more in depth understanding of coastal environments. Such maps can contribute to the understanding of shoreline change, geologic hazards, both offshore and along-shore sediment and pollutant transport. They are also useful in assessing geologic and biologic resources. Several intermediate-scale (1:100,000) geologic maps that include both onshore and offshore areas (herein called onshore-offshore geologic maps) have been produced of areas along the California coast (see Saucedo and others, 2003; Kennedy and others, 2007; Kennedy and Tan, 2008), but few large-scale (1:24,000) maps have been produced that can address local coastal issues. A cooperative project between Federal and State agencies and universities has produced an onshore-offshore geologic map at 1:24,000 scale of the Coal Oil Point area and part of the Santa Barbara Channel, southern California (fig. 1). As part of the project, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the California Geological Survey (CGS) hosted a workshop (May 2nd and 3rd, 2007) for producers and users of coastal map products (see list of participants) to develop a consensus on the content and format of onshore-offshore geologic maps (and accompanying GIS files) so that they have relevance for coastal-zone management. The USGS and CGS are working to develop coastal maps that combine geospatial information from offshore and onshore and serve as an important tool for addressing a broad range of coastal-zone management issues. The workshop was divided into sessions for presentations and discussion of bathymetry and topography, geology, and habitat products and needs of end users. During the workshop, participants reviewed existing maps and discussed their merits and shortcomings. This report addresses a number of items discussed in the workshop and details the onshore and offshore geologic map of the Coal Oil Point area. Results from this report directly address issues raised in the California Ocean Protection Act (COPA) Five Year Strategic Plan. For example, one of the guiding principles of the COPA five-year strategic plan is to 'Recognize the interconnectedness of the land and the sea, supporting sustainable uses of the coast and ensuring the health of ecosystems.' Results from this USGS report directly connect the land and sea with the creation of both a seamless onshore and offshore digital terrain model (DTM) and geologic map. One of the priority goals (and objectives) of the COPA plan is to 'monitor and map the ocean environment to provide data about conditions and trends.' Maps within this report provide land and sea geologic information for mapping and monitoring nearshore sediment processes, pollution transport, and sea-level rise and fall.

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