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At least 541 records · Page 30Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Early treatment of white-nose syndrome is necessary to stop population decline

Since its introduction to North America, white-nose syndrome has been associated with declines greater than 90% in several bat species, prompting the development of treatments to reduce disease-related mortality. As treatment application is scaled up, predicting responses at the population level will help in the development of management plans. We develop a model allowing for the implementation of multiple treatment scenarios in bat populations at risk of severe mortality from white-nose syndrome. Our model allows for variation in over 10 parameters, including effectiveness of treatment, treatment-related disturbance, number of individuals treated, number of hibernacula treated, herd immunity and movement among hibernacula. Additionally, the model allows treatments to be applied to individuals, the hibernaculum or a combination of the two. We simulated treatments for populations of 1000, 10,000 and 100,000 individuals, with the distribution of individuals within hibernacula based on field surveys of Myotis lucifugus . When treatments are applied to individuals, we found that treatment success was most influenced by the number of bats effectively treated, the magnitude of disturbance and the year of first treatment relative to initial mortality. For treatments applied to hibernacula, we found year of first treatment relative to initial mortality, magnitude of disturbance and effectiveness of treatment to be the best predictors of success. Treatments have the potential to mitigate white-nose syndrome-related mortality, but application of treatments after initial mass mortality seems to be of limited benefit. Unknowns surrounding influential treatment parameters, such as disturbance to hibernating bats, created substantial variation across outcomes and highlight the importance of obtaining field estimates of parameters associated with treatments. Synthesis and applications : While treatment applications can increase survival from white-nose syndrome, their potential is strongly diminished when not applied before or during the early epidemic stages. Once the disease is established, increasing survival and reproduction through methods other than disease treatments could be a better option. In the United States, most areas yet to reach the late epidemic or established stage are in the west where bats do not aggregate in large colonies and treating a substantial number of individuals will be difficult.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2022

Herbaceous production lost to tree encroachment in United States rangelands

Rangelands of the United States provide ecosystem services that benefit society and rural economies. Native tree encroachment is often overlooked as a primary threat to rangelands due to the slow pace of tree cover expansion and the positive public perception of trees. Still, tree encroachment fragments these landscapes and reduces herbaceous production, thereby threatening habitat quality for grassland wildlife and the economic sustainability of animal agriculture. Recent innovations in satellite remote sensing permit the tracking of tree encroachment and the corresponding impact on herbaceous production. We analysed tree cover change and herbaceous production across the western United States from 1990 to 2019. We show that tree encroachment is widespread in US rangelands; absolute tree cover has increased by 50% (77,323 km 2 ) over 30 years, with more than 25% (684,852 km 2 ) of US rangeland area experiencing tree cover expansion. Since 1990, 302 ± 30 Tg of herbaceous biomass have been lost. Accounting for variability in livestock biomass utilization and forage value reveals that this lost production is valued at between $4.1–$5.6 billion US dollars. Synthesis and applications . The magnitude of impact of tree encroachment on rangeland loss is similar to conversion to cropland, another well-known and primary mechanism of rangeland loss in the US Prioritizing conservation efforts to prevent tree encroachment can bolster ecosystem and economic sustainability, particularly among privately-owned lands threatened by land-use conversion.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2022

The effects of cheatgrass invasion on US Great Basin carbon storage depend on interactions between plant community composition, precipitation seasonality, and soil climate regime

Annual-grass invasions are transforming desert ecosystems in ways that affect ecosystem carbon (C) balance, but previous studies do not agree on the pattern, magnitude and direction of changes. A recent meta-analysis of 41 articles and 386 sites concludes that invasion by annual grasses such as cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum L) reduces C in biomass across the Great Basin (Nagy et al., 2021). Reanalysis reveals that whether cheatgrass affects biomass C stocks is not generalizable, but rather depends on the considerable variation in climate across the subject sites. Our analysis suggests that accurate Great Basin-scale estimates of cheatgrass effects on C balance are not yet possible. Addition of climate variables to the meta-analysis reveals that cheatgrass invasion (a) reduced C in above-ground biomass in relatively summer-wet sites but not in summer-dry sites, (b) increased surface soil C in sites with intermediate resistance and resilience classifications (R&R) but not in low R&R sites—that is, mesic/aridic soil climates and (c) did not affect deep soil C. Considering that cheatgrass has expanded most in relatively summer-dry sites and mesic/aridic sites, omission of climate factors leads to model overestimates of cheatgrass effects on C when extrapolating to larger areas. Estimates of cheatgrass effects on C would also be improved if the analysis considered that (a) perennial grasslands are a common community state in the Great Basin that have intermediary C relative to annual grasslands and sagebrush stands, that is the omission of perennial grasslands from analysis inflates the baseline C storage of uninvaded Great Basin ecosystems, and( b) cheatgrass does not often exist in stable monocultures and soil carbon can reflect current or recent presence of other species. Synthesis and applications . Invasions often reveal heterogeneity in ecosystem structure and function that is not otherwise evident, and the heterogeneity can influence estimation of the net impacts of the invaders. For cheatgrass and other invaders, we propose that formally accounting for the spatial variability of invasion on ecosystem functions will improve the estimation of their net effect on ecosystem C, and thus improve prospects for adjusting management practices to optimize C sequestration.

western United States↗
USGS2022

Compensatory recruitment unlikely in high-elevation amphibian populations challenged with disease

Understanding the causes of population variation in host response to disease, and the mechanisms of persistence, can serve as vital information for species conservation. One such mechanism of population persistence that has gained support is the demographic process of compensatory recruitment. Host populations may persist by increasing recruitment to compensate for reduced survival due to infection, thus limiting the negative effects of the disease on population trajectories. However, high-elevation populations are inherently vulnerable to stochastic processes and may be limited in their ability to exhibit compensatory recruitment relative to lower elevation populations. We use long-term mark–recapture data from five populations of boreal toads Anaxyrus boreas boreas , across an elevational gradient in Colorado, before and after pathogen arrival to assess whether populations can persist with Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ) via compensatory recruitment. Prior to pathogen arrival, we found a life-history trade-off between survival and recruitment across elevations, where high-elevation toads have high survival but lower recruitment and vice versa at lower elevations. Pathogen arrival had a strong negative effect on apparent annual survival and recruitment leading to negative population growth rates and dramatically reduced host abundances. The data did not support the occurrence of compensatory recruitment. Synthesis and applications . Our unique dataset indicates that demographic responses to pathogens may be environmentally (i.e. elevationally) context dependent and highlights the value of long-term monitoring. We recommend that practitioners verify that potential persistence mechanisms occur across multiple populations and relevant environmental gradients to counter any assumptions of the mechanism existing species-wide. Quantifying variation in population responses to disease will aid in understanding the bounds of such persistence mechanisms and identify particularly vulnerable populations where mechanisms are nonexistent.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2023

Plant water-use strategies predict restoration success across degraded drylands

Plant strategies for coping with water limitation are likely to mediate restoration outcomes in degraded dryland ecosystems. Trade-offs in traits related to water acquisition and use can intensify in more arid environments, making their effects on dryland restoration success even more salient. However, isolating the effects of drought responses from those of other environmental factors, as well as identifying the specific drought resistance traits that influence restoration success, can be difficult. In the present study, we couple a controlled dry-down experiment with a cross-site restoration field trial of out-planted seedlings (RestoreNet) using a suite of dryland herbaceous plant species from the same seed sources. We quantified interspecific variation in physiological responses to drought, specifically reductions in stomatal conductance ( g s ) and stem water potential (SWP), by comparing well-watered control plants to those experiencing decreasing soil moisture. Drought responses of SWP and g s varied independently among species, but both were related to survival in the cross-site restoration field trial when effect sizes were aggregated across all sites. Responses were consistent with acquisitive water-use strategies resulting in greater success, where species with greater declines in SWP or weaker declines in g s under drought had greater survival. The correlation between SWP drought response and survival also intensified in sites with lower accumulated precipitation following restoration. Differences among functional groups revealed two different paths to restoration success: forbs that maintain high g s and narrow safety margins to maximize exploitation of moisture pulses before going into drought dormancy, or C 4 grasses that maintain efficient water uptake in drying soils while risking cavitation. C 3 grass species varied between these two strategies. Synthesis and applications . Taken together, the results of this study and others conducted at RestoreNet sites indicate that while a diversity of physiological responses to drought may exist in dryland plant communities, successfully restoring herbaceous species through out-planting in degraded conditions is likely to be achieved with species that maximize water uptake via one of two strategies, with tolerance of low SWP being particularly important in the most arid settings.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2023

Multi-level thresholds of residential and agricultural land use for elk avoidance across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

1. Conversion of land for settlements and agriculture is increasing globally and can influence wildlife space use. However, there is limited research to identify the thresholds of land-use change that incur wildlife avoidance and how these thresh-olds might vary across levels of selection. 2. We evaluated multi-level avoidance thresholds of elk Cervus canadensis impacted by residential development and irrigated agriculture across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Using GPS data from765 elk in 21 herds, we estimated habitat selection in relation to development and agriculture at three levels (home range selection, within home range selection and movement path selection). Next, using individual selection covariates and as-sociated measures of land-use availability, we used functional-response models to evaluate how selection varied based on availability, and in turn, to estimate avoidance thresholds. 3. We found individual and level-specific variation in elk responses to environmental factors. Elk exhibited stronger responses (either selection or avoidance) when selecting home range locations (i.e. second-order selection) than when selecting areas within home ranges (i.e. third-order selection) or selecting movement paths (i.e. fourth-order selection). Importantly, elk avoidance of development and agriculture changed as the amount of land in these categories changed. Across all levels of selection elk exhibited neutral selection for human development at low levels of availability (<1.1%–2.2% developed) but avoided areas that were >1.1%–2.2% developed. Conversely, elk selected positively for irrigated agriculture at low to moderate levels of availability (<52.0%–66.2% agriculture) but exhibited neutral selection in areas that were >52.0%–66.2% agriculture. 4. Synthesis and applications . Elk avoidance of low levels of human development suggests conservation efforts such as restrictions on future development or conservation easements could focus on areas that are still below 2% developed. Additionally, because elk selection was strongest at the landscape scale, conservation actions that are based on information about the overall landscape structure may be most impactful. Our results highlight the importance of under-standing variability in wildlife habitat selection at multiple levels, particularly in relation to land-use change, and highlight how functional response modelling can help inform landscape conservation.

Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Abiotic and biotic factors reduce the viability of a high-elevation salamander in its native range

Amphibian populations are undergoing worldwide declines, and high-elevation, range-restricted amphibian species may be particularly vulnerable to environmental stressors. In particular, future climate change may have disproportional impacts to these ecosystems. Evaluating the combined effects of abiotic changes and biotic interactions simultaneously is important for forecasting the range of future outcomes. This information is necessary to aid conservation decision-making. We use field data to estimate population demographic parameters for an exemplary high-elevation amphibian species, the federally endangered Shenandoah salamander Plethodon shenandoah . These parameters were entered into a Markov projection model which we used to forecast the future population status of the Shenandoah salamander. We found that if the population maintains its current site colonization and persistence rates, it is at the risk of extinction that could be exacerbated by both climate and interspecific competition. Synthesis and applications. Managers have a fundamental objective directed by official policy of maintaining the species ‘for the foreseeable future’. Our evaluation of multiple hypotheses about population drivers reveals that extinction is projected for this species. Our analysis suggests that considering active management need not depend on resolving the uncertainty.

Virginia↗
USGS2023

Incorporating metapopulation dynamics to inform invasive species management: Evaluating bighead and silver carp control strategies in the Illinois River

1. Invasive species management can benefit from predictive models that incorporate spatially explicit demographics and dispersal to guide resource allocation decisions. 2. We used invasive bigheaded carps ( Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in the Illinois River, USA as a case study to create a spatially explicit model to evaluate the allocation of future management efforts. Specifically, we compared additional harvest (e.g. near the invasion front vs. source populations) and enhanced movement deterrents to meet the management goal of reducing abundance at the invasion front. 3. We found additional harvest in lower river pools (i.e. targeting source populations) more effectively limited population sizes upriver at the invasion front compared to allocating the same harvest levels near the invasion front. Likewise, decreasing passage (i.e. lock and dam structures) at the farthest, feasible downriver location limited invasion front population size more than placing movement deterrents farther upriver. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our work highlights the benefits of adopting a multipronged approach for invasive species management, combining suppression of source populations with disrupting movement between source and sink populations thereby producing compounding benefits for control. Our results also demonstrate the importance of considering metapopulation dynamics for invasive species control programs when achieving long-term management goals.

Illinois↗
USGS2023

Conserving habitat for migratory ungulates: How wide is a migration corridor?

Conserving migratory ungulates relies on the analysis of GPS collar data and associated maps of migration corridors to inform management and policy actions. Current methods for identifying migratory corridors use complex statistical models designed to account for movement uncertainty rather than estimating the amount of space required by animals to migrate. Furthermore, such methods can complicate conservation efforts by producing highly variable corridor widths and non-contiguous corridors that do not fully connect seasonal ranges. To remedy, we propose an intuitive line buffer approach for delineating individual migration corridors that is simple to implement and focuses on the functional corridor widths needed by migratory ungulates. By buffering a line that connects successive GPS locations, we can delineate individual migration corridors with consistent widths that are robust to variable parameters (GPS fix rate, travel speed, tortuosity) and provide contiguous connection between seasonal ranges. Using a combination of expert knowledge, simulation and 10-min GPS collar data collected from mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ), we suggest 400–600 m are reasonable estimates of functional migration corridor widths for individuals of those species. Synthesis and applications . Our line buffer approach is intended to simplify migration corridor delineation, improve transparency and encourage a broader discussion of functional corridor widths. These considerations help advance efforts to conserve habitat within migration corridors and prioritize conservation efforts within a single corridor or across multiple corridors.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2023

Leveraging the strengths of citizen science and structured surveys to achieve scalable inference on population size

Population size is a key metric for management and policy decisions, yet wildlife monitoring programmes are often limited by the spatial and temporal scope of surveys. In these cases, citizen science data may provide complementary information at higher resolution and greater extent. We present a case study demonstrating how data from the eBird citizen science programme can be combined with regional monitoring efforts by the US Fish and Wildlife Service to produce high-resolution estimates of golden eagle abundance. We developed a model that uses aerial survey data from the western United States to calibrate high-resolution annual estimates of relative abundance from eBird. Using this model, we compared regional population size estimates based on the calibrated eBird information with those based on aerial survey data alone. Population size estimates based on the calibrated eBird information had strong correspondence to estimates from aerial survey data in two out of four regions, and population trajectories based on the two approaches showed high correlations. We demonstrate how the combination of citizen science data and targeted surveys can be used to (a) increase the spatial resolution of population size estimates, (b) extend the spatial extent of inference and (c) predict population size beyond the temporal period of surveys. Findings based on this case study can be used to refine policy metrics used by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and inform permitting regulations (e.g. mortality/harm associated with wind energy development). Policy implications : Our results demonstrate the ability of citizen science data to complement targeted monitoring programmes and improve the efficacy of decision frameworks that require information on population size or trajectory. After validating citizen science data against survey-based benchmarks, agencies can harness strengths of citizen science data to supplement information needs and increase the resolution and extent of population size predictions.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2023

Accounting for spatiotemporal sampling variation in joint species distribution models

Estimating relative abundance is critical for informing conservation and management efforts and for making inferences about the effects of environmental change on populations. Freshwater fisheries span large geographic regions, occupy diverse habitats and consist of varying species assemblages. Monitoring schemes used to sample these diverse populations often result in populations being sampled at different times and under different environmental conditions. Varying sampling conditions can bias estimates of abundance when compared across time, location and species, and properly accounting for these biases is critical for making inferences. We develop a joint species distribution model (JSDM) that accounts for varying sampling conditions due to the environment and time of sampling when estimating relative abundance. The novelty of our JSDM is that we explicitly model sampling effort as the product of known quantities based on time and gear type and an unknown functional relationship to capture seasonal variation in species life history. We use the model to study relative abundance of six freshwater fish species across the state of Minnesota, USA. Our model enables estimates of relative abundance to be compared both within and across species and lakes, and captures the inconsistent sampling present in the data. We discuss how gear type, water temperature and day of the year impact catchability for each species at the lake level and throughout a year. We compare our estimates of relative abundance to those obtained from a model that assumes constant catchability to highlight important differences within and across lakes and species. Synthesis and applications : Our method illustrates that assumptions relating indices of abundance to observed catch data can greatly impact model inferences derived from JSDMs. Specifically, not accounting for varying sampling conditions can bias inference of relative abundance, restricting our ability to detect responses to management interventions and environmental change. While our focus is on freshwater fisheries, this model architecture can be adopted to other systems where catchability may vary as a function of space, time and species.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2024

Adaptive resource management: Achieving functional eradication of invasive snakes to benefit avian conservation

Natural resource management often co-occurs with considerable uncertainty. One approach to mitigating uncertainty is through adaptive resource management (ARM), a specialized form of structured decision-making that modifies management decisions or actions through monitoring and implementation. Here, we present a case study on the attempted eradication of an invasive brown treesnake ( Boiga irregularis ) in a 5-ha enclosure on Guam with uncertainty in approach. We applied an ARM process across three field phases of snake removal and evaluated whether (1) eradication was achievable and (2) eradication was necessary to achieve an avian response. Field phases included the application of aerial toxic baits, toxicant baiting large mouse and birds, trapping with live mouse and bird lures and hand capture. We found that each removal technique improved control by either removing many individuals or targeting a subset of individuals that resisted prior control approaches. Although the effort did not result in eradication, the evaluation of identified indicators allowed for timely adjustments to removal using the ARM process. The snake removal efforts yielded an avian response in the treatment area after integrating live birds as snake lures, suggesting functional eradication of snakes may be possible. We also, however, observed a release of invasive rodents following snake control, with birds being more sensitive to the presence of snakes than rodents. Synthesis and applications . We suggest that using adaptive resource management to evaluate each phase of action in relation to established goals allowed us to measure outcomes and was successful in eliminating uncertainty in the application of control tools for wildlife conservation. We were able to create a documented and successful approach towards removing snakes inside a snake-exclusion barrier by following the ARM process.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2024

Geese migrating over the Pacific Ocean select altitudes coinciding with offshore wind turbine blades

Renewable energy facilities are a key part of mitigating climate change, but can pose threats to wild birds and bats, most often through collisions with infrastructure. Understanding collision risk and the factors affecting it can help minimize impacts on wild populations. For wind turbines, flight altitude is a major factor influencing collision risk, and altitude-selection analyses can evaluate when and why animals fly at certain altitudes under certain conditions. We used GPS tags to track Pacific Flyway geese (Pacific greater white-fronted goose, tule greater white-fronted goose and lesser snow goose) on transoceanic migrations between Alaska and the Pacific Coast of the contiguous United States, an area where offshore windfarm development is beginning. We evaluated how geographic and environmental covariates affected (1) whether birds were at rest on the water versus in flight (binomial model) and (2) altitude selection when in flight (similar to a step-selection framework). We then used a Monte Carlo simulation to predict the probability of flying at each altitude under various conditions, considering both the fly/rest decision and altitude selection. In both spring and fall, geese showed strong selection for altitudes within the expected rotor-swept zone (20–200 m asl), with 56% of locations expected to be within the rotor-swept zone under mean daylight conditions and 28% at night. This indicates a high possibility that migrating geese may be at risk of collision when passing through windfarms. Although there was some variation across subspecies, geese were most likely to be within the rotor-swept zone with little wind or light tailwinds, low clouds, little to no precipitation and moderate to cool air temperatures. Geese were unlikely to be in the rotor-swept zone at night, when most individuals were at rest on the water. Synthesis and applications . These results could be used to inform windfarm management, including decisions to shut down turbines when collision risk is high. The altitude-selection framework we demonstrate could facilitate further study of other bird species to develop a holistic view of how windfarms in this area could affect the migratory bird community as a whole.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2024

Integrating presence-only and detection/non-detection data to estimate distributions and expected abundance of difficult-to-monitor species on a landscape-scale

Estimating species distribution and abundance is foundational to effective management and conservation. Using an integrated species distribution model that combines presence-only data from various sources with detection/non-detection data from structured surveys, we estimated the distribution and expected abundance of three difficult-to-monitor mammals of management concern across New York State, namely, coyotes ( Canis latrans ), bobcats ( Lynx rufus ) and black bears ( Ursus americanus ). Three distinct landscape-scale camera trap surveys provided detection/non-detection data over 9 years between 2013 and 2021, and we augmented those data with incidental records of our focal species from public repositories. We used an inhomogeneous Poisson point process to construct an integrated model that fit both data types simultaneously. We demonstrate a simple application of spatial point density of all species records in the accessed public databases to inform the thinning process to account for unknown spatial sampling in the presence-only data, often referred to as the ‘magic covariate’. Using this approach, we examine habitat associations and provide spatially explicit estimates in expected abundance across the entirety of New York State for all three focal species. As expected, coyotes were the most widely distributed and abundant species, with a strong positive association with agricultural land uses. Bobcats exhibited low expected abundance throughout the state and showed positive associations with deciduous forest and forest edge, and a negative association with road density. Finally, we observed considerable spatial variation in abundance of black bears with expected abundance increasing in association with various forest cover and composition covariates and decreasing with crop cover. We present insights into habitat associations and spatial variation in abundance, and provide management implications for each of the species of interest. Synthesis and applications . Our integrated modelling method allows for managers to use citizen sightings combined with detection/non-detection surveys to estimate robust indices of abundance for both high- and low-density, and wide-spread versus patchily distributed species. Through comparison with previous studies, we highlight how broad-scale programmes, such as the statewide efforts to estimate species distributions undertaken here, can benefit substantively from integrated models that leverage additional data (here, incidental records) from a larger region of space, and thus capture more landscape heterogeneity than is plausible within formalized surveys alone.

New York↗
USGS2024

Propensity score matching mitigates risk of faulty inferences in observational studies of effectiveness of restoration trials

Determining effectiveness of restoration treatments is an important requirement of adaptive management, but it can be non-trivial where only portions of large and heterogeneous landscapes of concern can be treated and sampled. Bias and non-randomness in the spatial deployment of treatment and thus sampling is nearly unavoidable in the data available for large-scale management trials, and the biophysical landscape characteristics underlying the bias are key but rare considerations in analyses of treatment effects. Treatment effects from large-scale management trials are typically estimated with multivariable regression (MVR) models. However, this method is unsuited to reliable estimations of treatment effects when treated and untreated areas differ in their underlying biophysical variability. An alternative to conventional regression is to use propensity score (PS) matching, which can limit the differences in confounding variables among treatment groups and assure the data collected or selected for analysis are more consistent with a randomized and unconfounded experiment. Thus, PS is expected to identify treatment effects more accurately. We used data from a large-scale monitoring effort of a megafire to evaluate the efficacy of PS matching in making inferences on treatment effects when treatments are applied non-randomly over a large heterogeneous area. We compared the resulting inference to both traditional MVR methods and to “naïve” methods that do not consider treatment allocation bias. Treatment effects varied between the different statistical methods for controlling selection bias and confounding biophysical factors. The PS-matched model revealed a weaker treatment effect of drill seeding and a greater effect of herbicide spraying on the cover of perennial bunchgrasses when compared to MVR or naïve modelled estimates. The inferences from the PS-matched model are considered more reliable because the treated and untreated plots are more similar in their underlying biophysical characteristics. Synthesis and applications . Failure to consider the non-random and selective deployment of restoration treatments by managers leads to faulty inference on their effectiveness. However, tools such as propensity-score matching can be used to remove the bias from analyses of the outcomes of management trials or to devise sampling plans that efficiently protect against the bias.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2024

Leveraging relationships between species abundances to improve predictions and inform conservation

Many management and conservation contexts can benefit from understanding relationships between species abundances, which can be used to improve predictions of species occurrence and abundance. We present conditional prediction as a tool to capture information about species abundances via residual covariance between species. From a fitted joint species distribution model, this framework produces a species coefficient matrix that contains relationships between species abundances. The species coefficients allow co-observed species to be treated as a second set of predictors supplementing covariates in the model to improve prediction. We use simulations to demonstrate the potential benefits and limitations of conditional prediction across data types and species covariance before applying conditional prediction to two management contexts with real data. Simulations demonstrate that conditional prediction provides the largest benefits to continuous data and when there is residual covariance between many species. In our first application, we show that conditioning on other species improves in-sample and out-of-sample predictions of fish and invertebrate species, including Atlantic cod. In our second application, we show that the species coefficient matrix can be used to identify bird species at risk of nest parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds. Synthesis and applications . We present guidelines for using conditional prediction, which can help understand relationships between species abundances, improve predictions and inform conservation in a variety of contexts.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2025

Site-level connectivity identified from multiple sources of movement data to inform conservation of a migratory bird

Migratory birds depend on a suite of sites across their annual cycles, making them vulnerable to a wide variety of anthropogenic pressures. Current area-based conservation measures have been found inadequate to safeguard migratory birds, in part due to a lack of consideration for the connectivity between sites mediated by the movements of individuals. To address this issue, we develop a network analysis integrating different types of individual movement data for a migratory shorebird, the Black-tailed Godwit ( Limosa limosa ), across the East Atlantic Flyway. Leveraging metal-ring recoveries, colour-ring re-sightings and satellite tracking from over 10,000 individual godwits, we quantify variation in connectivity between sites across the migratory range, using two weighted metrics to address sampling biases. Colour-ring re-sightings provided the largest number of sites (70%) and links (60% and 43% per season) overall, followed by tracking data (50% of sites, 49% and 63% of links per season) and ring recoveries (25% of sites, <1% of links per season), with clear regional variation in datatype contributions. Sampling completeness of the network structure varied with longitude, with information particularly lacking in central and eastern countries of both Europe and Africa. We identified 49 sites playing a disproportionate role in the site network, each with direct connections to 48 (interquartile range 32–84) other sites, on average. Just 23 (47%) top sites are formally recognized for their international importance for Black-tailed Godwits, and 33 (67%) were robust to sampling incompleteness. Across all 1058 sites, 20% lacked protected area coverage, and per site, 44% (44% ± SD) of bird relocations fell within protected areas. Integrating multiple sources of data improved geographical coverage and completeness of the site network, allowing us to quantify the importance of sites in terms of connectivity across the flyway. Our results highlight shortcomings of existing area-based conservation measures and add value to ongoing efforts to identify important sites for migratory birds. Policy implications . The increasing availability of individual movement data provides valuable opportunities to reveal the inter-dependence of sites used by migratory species, which can help identify priority areas and facilitate flyway-scale management.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2025

The relative influence of geographic and environmental factors on rare plant translocation outcomes

Conservation translocations are an established method for reducing the extinction risk of plant species through intentional movement within or outside the indigenous range. Unsuitable environmental conditions at translocation recipient sites and a lack of understanding of species–environment relationships are often identified as critical barriers to translocation success. However, previous syntheses have drawn these inferences from analyses of qualitative feedback rather than quantitative environmental data. In this study, we use a data set of 235 translocations conducted in the US to understand the influences of geographic and environmental factors on three metrics of translocation success: population persistence, next-generation recruitment and next-generation maturity. We use random forest models to quantify the relative importance of geographic and environmental factors that characterize dissimilarity between source and recipient locations, the position of recipient sites relative to species' ranges and niche metrics derived from these ranges. We also compare the importance of these variables with more conventional predictors (e.g. founder population size). Our results indicate that geographic and environmental variables can be as insightful as conventional variables for predicting plant translocation outcomes. The climate suitability of recipient sites, estimated using species distribution models, was the strongest relative predictor of whether a population persisted, with populations situated in more suitable climates displaying greater persistence. Next-generation recruitment and maturity were best predicted by niche metrics; species in more biotically limiting environments, including tropical regions and soils with high relative nutrient retention, as well as species with the broadest precipitation niches, were the least likely to attain these next-generation benchmarks. Synthesis and applications . Our study is one of the first to quantify the important role of spatial and climatic factors in rare plant translocation outcomes. We provide a novel geographic and environmental perspective on outcomes in plant translocations and demonstrate opportunities to improve translocation success not only by adhering to established best practice guidelines but also by integrating spatial modelling approaches into planning and management processes.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗