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Ground-motion prediction equations for the western Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for the western Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are developed by employing a mixed-effects regression model to modify the Boore and others (2014) Next Generation Attenuation-West2 (NGA-West2) project GMPEs. NGA-West2 addressed several key issues concerning GMPEs for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. However, the NGA-West2 input data do not include many earthquakes in extensional regimes, such as those occurring in Saudi Arabia. This deficiency is redressed by calculating a magnitude scaling of the new Saudi Arabia-specific GMPEs compared to those of Boore and others (2014). Furthermore, there is a clear difference in distance scaling for the Saudi Arabian GMPEs in comparison with the NGA-West2 GMPEs. This difference is especially significant at large distances and is mainly due to lower anelastic attenuation in the crystalline crust of western Saudi Arabia. Our empirical data demonstrate that the GMPEs presented here are in good agreement with observed earthquake ground motions in western Saudi Arabia.

Professional Paper↗

Diatoms.org: Supporting taxonomists, connecting communities

Consistent identification of diatoms is a prerequisite for studying their ecology, biogeography, and successful application as environmental indicators. However, taxonomic consistency among observers has been difficult to achieve because taxonomic information is scattered across numerous literature sources, presenting challenges to the diatomist. Firstly, literature is often inaccessible because of cost or its location in journals that are not widely circulated. Secondly, taxonomic revisions of diatoms are taking place faster than floras can be updated. Finally, taxonomic information is often contradictory across literature sources. These issues can be addressed by developing a content creation community dedicated to making taxonomic, ecological, and image-based data freely available for diatom researchers. Diatoms.org represents such a content curation community, providing open, online access to a vast amount of recent and historical information on North American diatom taxonomy and ecology. The content curation community aggregates existing taxonomic information, creates new content, and provides feedback in the form of corrections and notices of literature with nomenclatural changes. The website not only addresses the needs of experienced diatom scientists for consistent identification but is also designed to meet users at their level of expertise, including engaging the lay public in the importance of diatom science. The website now contains over 1000 species pages contributed by over 100 content contributors, from students to established scientists. The project began with the intent to provide accurate information on diatom identification, ecology, and distribution using an approach that incorporates engaging design, user feedback, and advanced data access technology. In retrospect, the project that began as an ‘extended electronic book’ has emerged not only as a means to support taxonomists, but for practitioners to communicate and collaborate, expanding the size of and benefits to the content curation community. In this paper, we outline the development of diatoms.org , document key elements of the project, examine ongoing challenges and consider the unexpected emergent properties, including the value of diatoms.org as a source of data. Ultimately, if the field of diatom taxonomy, ecology, and biodiversity is to be relevant, a new generation of taxonomists needs to be trained and employed using new tools. We propose that diatoms.org is in a key position to serve as a hub of training and continuity for the study of diatom biodiversity and aquatic conditions.

Diatom Research↗

Circumpolar biodiversity monitoring program (CBMP): Coastal expert workshop meeting report

The Coastal Expert Workshop, which took place in Ottawa, Canada from March 1 to 3, 2016, initiated the development of the Arctic Coastal Biodiversity Monitoring Plan (Coastal Plan). Meeting participants, including northern residents, representatives from industry, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), academia, and government regulators and agencies from across the circumpolar Arctic, discussed current biodiversity monitoring efforts, key issues facing biodiversity in Arctic coastal areas, and collectively identified monitoring indicators, or Focal Ecosystem Components (FECs). On February 29, the day before the workshop, a full day was allocated to Traditional Knowledge (TK) holders to meet and elucidate how this important knowledge can be included in the process of building the Coastal Plan and monitoring biodiversity in Arctic coastal areas, along with scientific data and variables. This document provides 1) background information about the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Programme and the Coastal Expert Monitoring Group, 2) overviews on workshop presentations and breakout sessions, and 3) details regarding outcomes of the workshop that will inform the drafting of the Coastal Plan.

Conference Paper↗

Outstanding issues for new geothermal resource assessments

A critical question for the future energy policy of the United States is the extent to which geothermal resources can contribute to an ever-increasing demand for electricity. Electric power production from geothermal sources exceeds that from wind and solar combined, yet the installed capacity falls far short of the geothermal resource base characterized in past assessments, even though the estimated size of the resource in six assessments completed in the past 35 years varies by thousands of Megawatts-electrical (MWe). The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working closely with the Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Research Program and other geothermal organizations on a three-year effort to produce an updated assessment of available geothermal resources. The new assessment will introduce significant changes in the models for geothermal energy recovery factors, estimates of reservoir permeability, limits to temperatures and depths for electric power production, and include the potential impact of evolving Enhanced (or Engineered) Geothermal Systems (EGS) technology.

Conference Paper↗

Vision for a worldwide fluvial-sediment information network

The nations of the world suffer both from the deleterious effects of some natural and human-altered fluxes of fluvial sediment and a lack of consistent and reliable information on the temporal and spatial occurrence of fluvial sediments. Decades ago, this difficulty was unavoidable due to a lack of understanding of the magnitude and scope of environmental influences exerted by fluvial sediment coupled with a dearth of tools for monitoring and studying the data. Such is no longer the case. Fluvial sediment has a broad influence on the environment and humanity. Data needs that were once limited primarily to reservoir and channel maintenance now include issues associated with public water supply; contaminated sediment management; productivity of agricultural lands; stream restoration and watershed health; in-stream biotic stability; post-wildfire channel morphology; dam decommissioning, rehabilitation, or removal; and legal requirements for sediment management (Gray and Glysson, 2005). The adverse effects of poorly managed or unmanaged sediment movement related to these and other issues are well-known qualitatively, and in some cases quantitatively. For example, physical, chemical, and biological damages attributable to fluvial sediment in North America alone are now estimated to range between $20 billion and $50 billion annually (Pimental and others, 1995; Osterkamp and others, 1998; 2004). Capabilities for monitoring, analyzing, storing, and sharing fluvial-sediment data have been developed and, in many cases, are sufficiently mature for consideration for global utilization. Hence, there is not only a strong and expanding need for a global effort to gauge and understand fluvial-sediment characteristics and processes better, but the knowledge and tools to achieve these ends are largely available and ready for their applicability to be evaluated. Given the increasing importance of erosion and sediment processes for water-resources management, an International Sedimentation Initiative (ISI, 2007a), under the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization’s International Hydrologic Programme (IHP, 2007) was adopted in 2004. The ISI, the focus of which is on sustainable water-resources management on the global scale, features six major activities and projects, which are listed as part of the section entitled, “Relation of the WoFSIN concept to the thrusts of the International Sedimentation Initiative,” that precedes the “Conclusions” section of this paper. Based on the need for more, and more consistent and reliable fluvial-sediment information and on the existence of the ISI and other international and national sediment programs, we envision the need for a Worldwide Fluvial Sediment-Information Network (WoFSIN) with a focus on data acquisition, storage, and dissemination globally. Envisioned components of a WoFSIN, administered largely via the Internet and relying mostly on the benefits derived from existing resources and programs, follow that summary. The goal of the WoFSIN is to maximize the availability and usefulness of the world’s historical and current fluvial-sediment and ancillary data through collaboration with existing programs so as to require few additional resources in the long-term. Thus, the WoFSIN concept was developed recognizing that informed resource management is predicated on the availability of adequate and reliable information. The WoFSIN is described in the ensuing sections in stand-alone fashion, followed by a section that describes the complementary aspects of the WoFSIN and the International Sediment Initiative. Thus, our first objective is to describe the fundamental components of a WoFSIN. Our second objective is to identify overlap or gaps between the WoFSIN and ISI concepts that might be useful in refining the ISI’s ability to meet its global mission to develop decision support for sediment management at the global scale more fully, cost-effectively, and (or) with enhanced quality.

Conference Paper↗

Integration of seafloor point data in usSEABED

Sediments of the beach, nearshore, and continental shelves record a complex interplay of processes including wave energy and direction , currents, beach erosion or accretion, bluff or cliff retreat, fluvial input, sediment longshore and cross-shelf transport processes, contaminant content and transport, sediment sources and sinks, and others. In turn, sediments and rocks modify wave patterns, affect recreation and tourism, and provide habitat for fish, epifauna, and infauna. Character of the surficial seafloor also influences navigation, commercial and recreational fishing and gathering of other food sources, communication, piplines, national defense, and provides geologic resources including sand and gravel aggregates, minerals, and real or potential energy sources. The beaches, nearshore, and continental margins fall under overlapping levels of managerial responsibility between Federal, State, regional, and local government agencies and consortia. In addition, universities and other academic institutions investigate these places for pure or applied scientific reasons. Mapping is usually the first step in understanding any issue and is often comprised of remotely gathered geophysical data such as bathymetry and backscatter imagery, and groundtruthing; that is, the collection of physical and virtual samples to tie the remotely gathered data to reality. The physical samples are described and (or) carefully analyzed for grain-size information -- which records both the site's physical conditions and geologic past -- and commonly, for constituent components such as mineral and rock types (to determine onland sources and in situ chemical processes), carbonate and organic content and microfossils (for biological and oceanographic influences), and structure such as layering and bioturbation (for physical influences). The samples may also be subjected to physical tests such as comp[action analyses, liquefaction or plasticity limits, ans other parameters important when considering construction of offshore structures. In recent years, virtual sampling of the seafloor has become popular, through the use of towed video or photographic equipment and the addition of camera to oceanographic equipment such as corers and tripods. Before about ten years ago, most maps were made by hand. Recently, with the advent of desktop GIS packages, map making and resource analysis can be done nearly "on-the-fly" if geographically located data exist. While the problems of projection, scale, and resolution of digitized paper maps are commonly known amongst GIS-users, access to the original underlying point data allows for maps to be regenerated for digital use using statistically proven methods, provides increasing data density by including multiple studies, as well as allows the point data to be used in other ways than just mapping. These point data may be available in raw or refined or in worded descriptions. Raw data such as granulometric analyses can be manipulated through the use of known equations or empirical relationships to provide information about other parameters of the sediment, such as mean grainsize, sorting, erodability, or rugosity. If refined data are presented such as gravel, sand, and mud percentages, the parameter noted earlier may be estimated. In the case of worded descriptions, values for geologic terms can be assigned, for example, "fine sand" equate to 0.2 mm sized particles, to provide numeric terms for GIS or modeling purposes.

Conference Paper↗

Modeling of soil erosion and sediment transport in the East River Basin in southern China

Soil erosion is a major global environmental problem that has caused many issues involving land degradation, sedimentation of waterways, ecological degradation, and nonpoint source pollution. Therefore, it is significant to understand the processes of soil erosion and sediment transport along rivers, and this can help identify the erosion prone areas and find potential measures to alleviate the environmental effects. In this study, we investigated soil erosion and identified the most seriously eroded areas in the East River Basin in southern China using a physically-based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). We also introduced a classical sediment transport method (Zhang) into SWAT and compared it with the built-in Bagnold method in simulating sediment transport process along the river. The derived spatial soil erosion map and land use based erosion levels can explicitly illustrate the identification and prioritization of the critical soil erosion areas in this basin. Our results also indicate that erosion is quite sensitive to soil properties and slope. Comparison of Bagnold and Zhang methods shows that the latter can give an overall better performance especially in tracking the peak and low sediment concentrations along the river. We also found that the East River is mainly characterized by sediment deposition in most of the segments and at most times of a year. Overall, the results presented in this paper can provide decision support for watershed managers about where the best management practices (conservation measures) can be implemented effectively and at low cost. The methods we used in this study can also be of interest in sediment modeling for other basins worldwide.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Determining the hydraulic properties of saturated, low-permeability geological materials in the laboratory: Advances in theory and practice

The accurate hydraulic characterization of low-permeability subsurface environments has important practical significance. In order to examine this issue from the perspective of laboratory-based approaches, we review some recent advancements in the theoretical analyses of three different laboratory techniques specifically applied to low-permeability geologic materials: constant-head, constant flow-rate and transient-pulse permeability tests. Some potential strategies for effectively decreasing the time required to confidently estimate the permeability of these materials are presented. In addition, a new and versatile laboratory system is introduced that can implement any of these three test methods while simultaneously subjecting a specimen to high confining pressures and pore pressures, thereby simulating in situ conditions at great depths. The capabilities and advantages of this innovative system are demonstrated using experimental data derived from Shirahama sandstone and Inada granite, two rock types widely encountered in Japan.

Conference Paper↗

Potential for increased mercury accumulation in the estuary food web

Present concentrations of mercury in large portions of San Francisco Bay (Bay), the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta), and the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers are high enough to warrant concern for the health of humans and wildlife. Large scale tidal wetland restoration is currently under consideration as a means of increasing populations of fish species of concern. Tidal wetland restoration activities may lead to increased concentrations of mercury in the estuarine food web and exacerbate the existing mercury problem. This paper evaluates our present ability to predict the local and regional effects of restoration actions on mercury accumulation in aquatic food webs. A sport fish consumption advisory is in place for the Bay, and an advisory is under consideration for the Delta and lower Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers. Mercury concentrations in eggs of several water bird species from the Bay have exceeded the lowest observed effect level. A variety of mercury sources, largely related to historic mercury and gold mining, is present in the watershed and has created a spatially heterogeneous distribution of mercury in the Bay-Delta Estuary. Mercury exists in the environment in a variety of forms and has a complex biogeochemical cycle. The most hazardous form, methylmercury, is produced at a relatively high rate in wetlands and newly flooded aquatic habitats. It is likely that distinct spatial variation on multiple spatial scales exists in net methylmercury production in Bay-Delta tidal wetlands, including variation within each tidal wetland, among tidal wetlands in the same region, and among tidal wetlands in different regions. Understanding this spatial variation and its underlying causes will allow environmental managers to minimize the negative effects of mercury bioaccumulation as a result of restoration activities. Actions needed to reduce the uncertainty associated with this issue include a long term, multifaceted research effort, long term monitoring on local and regional scales, and careful evaluation of individual restoration projects with regard to potential increase of food web mercury.

California↗

From field data to volumes: Constraining uncertainties in pyroclastic eruption parameters

In this study, we aim to understand the variability in eruption volume estimates derived from field studies of pyroclastic deposits. We distributed paper maps of the 1959 Kīlauea Iki tephra to 101 volcanologists worldwide, who produced hand-drawn isopachs. Across the returned maps, uncertainty in isopach areas is 7 % across the well-sampled deposit but increases to over 30 % for isopachs that are governed by the largest and smallest thickness measurements. We fit the exponential, power-law, and Weibull functions through the isopach thickness versus area 1/2 values and find volume estimate variations up to a factor of 4.9 for a single map. Across all maps and methodologies, we find an average standard deviation for a total volume of s  = 29 %. The volume uncertainties are largest for the most proximal ( s  = 62 %) and distal field ( s  = 53 %) and small for the densely sampled intermediate deposit ( s  = 8 %). For the Kīlauea Iki 1959 eruption, we find that the deposit beyond the 5-cm isopach contains only 2 % of the total erupted volume, whereas the near-source deposit contains 48 % and the intermediate deposit 50 % of the total volume. Thus, the relative uncertainty within each zone impacts the total volume estimates differently. The observed uncertainties for the different deposit regions in this study illustrate a fundamental problem of estimating eruption volumes: while some methodologies may provide better fits to the isopach data or rely on fewer free parameters, the main issue remains the predictive capabilities of the empirical functions for the regions where measurements are missing.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

Reports and maps of the Military Geology Unit, 1942-1975

Included here are reports and maps which were prepared in the Military Geology Unit of the U. S. Geological Survey from 1942 through 1975. In addition to the references prepared primarily for military use and listed here, more than 200 reports of more general geologic interest were prepared for publication as Survey bulletins and professional papers and in outside journals. These reports are listed in "Publications of the Geological Survey" and other bibliographies. Military Geology reports generally include basic subjects such as rock types, soils, water resources, landforms and vegetation, as well as interpretive subjects such as suitability of terrain for cross-country movement and for construction of roads and airfields in areas throughout the world. Reports on specific areas range from generalized texts with small scab maps derived from published sources to detailed texts with large-scale maps commonly based on photo-interpretation and, especially for Alaska and western Pacific islands, involving field mapping. Other reports treat topics of interest in military geology without reference to specific areas. A number of reports covering the moon include the first photogeologic map of the near side. Authors are cited for some kinds of reports; however, many intelligence reports were published anonymously. Most of the reports were prepared by teams made up mainly of geologists but commonly including soils scientists, botanists, climatologists and geographers. Nearly all the soil scientists and climatologists were members of the World Soil Geography Unit, Soil Survey, Soil Conservation Service, U. S. Department of Agriculture. Manuscripts from this Unit were passed through a common review and other processing, as were the manuscripts originating in the Military Geology office, to be issued under the aegis of the latter. In some instances where it has not been possible to list all authors, names of project supervisors are given. File copies of many of the Military Geology reports prepared since 1975 are kept in the Special Geologic Studies Group, U.S. Geological Survey, National Center, Reston, and may be examined there by appropriately cleared persons. Additionally, copies of many of the unclassified studies are in the U.S. Geological Survey Library. Some of the older reports are in the files of the Terrain Analysis Center, Fort Belvoir, Virginia, and other offices within the Corps of Engineers. Most of the reports are out of print and many of the other studies are no longer available.

Open-File Report↗

USGS high resolution topo-mapping of Mars with Mars Orbiter Camera Narrow-Angle images

We describe our initial experiences producing controlled digital elevation models (DEMs) of Mars with horizontal resolutions of ≤10 m and vertical precisions of ≤2 m. Such models are of intense interest at all phases of Mars exploration and scientific investigation, from the selection of safe landing sites to the quantitative analysis of the morphologic record of surface processes. Topomapping with a resolution adequate to address many of these issues has only become possible with the success of the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) mission. The Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) on MGS mapped the planet globally with absolute accuracies <10 m vertically and ~100 m horizontally but relatively sparse sampling (300 m along track, with gaps of >1 km between tracks common at low latitudes). We rely on the MOLA data as the best available source of control and process images from the narrow-angle Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC-NA) with stereo and photoclinometric (shape-from-shading) techniques to produce DEMs with significantly better horizontal resolution. The techniques described here enable mapping not only with MOC but also with the high-resolution cameras (Mars Express HRSC, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter HiRISE) that will orbit Mars in the next several years.

Conference Paper↗

W(h)ither the Oracle? Cognitive biases and other human challenges of integrated environmental modeling

Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) can organize and increase our knowledge of the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control the quality of our environments. Human behavior, however, must be taken into account. Human biases/heuristics reflect adaptation over our evolutionary past to frequently experienced situations that affected our survival and that provided sharply distinguished feedbacks at the level of the individual. Unfortunately, human behavior is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced, less frequently encountered, problems and issues that IEM typically seeks to address in the simulation of natural resources and environments. While seeking inspiration from the prophetic traditions of the Oracle of Delphi, several human biases are identified that may affect how the science base of IEM is assembled, and how IEM results are interpreted and used. These biases are supported by personal observations, and by the findings of behavioral scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that solicits explicit accounting and cognizance of potential human biases. A number of suggestions are made to address the human challenges of IEM, in addition to maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty, and transparent accountability. These include creating a new area of study in the behavioral biogeosciences, using structured processes for engaging the modeling and stakeholder community in IEM, and using “red teams” to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

Conference Paper↗

Characterizing and simulating sediment loads and transport in the lower part of the San Antonio River Basin

This extended abstract is based on the U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Reports by Crow et al. (2013) and Banta and Ockerman (2014). Suspended sediment in rivers and streams can play an important role in ecological health of rivers and estuaries and consequently is an important issue for water-resource managers. The quantity and type of suspended sediment can affect the biological communities (Wood and Armitage, 1997), the concentration and movement of natural constituents and anthropogenic contaminants (Moran and others, 2012), and the amount of sediment deposition in coastal environments (Milliman and Meade, 1983). To better understand suspended-sediment characteristics in the San Antonio River Basin, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the San Antonio River Authority and Texas Water Development Board, conducted a two-phase study to (1) collect and analyze sediment data to characterize sediment conditions in the San Antonio River downstream of San Antonio, Texas, and (2) develop and calibrate a watershed model to simulate hydrologic conditions and suspended-sediment loads for four watersheds in the San Antonio River Basin, downstream from San Antonio, Texas.

Texas↗

Strontium isotope evolution of pore water and calcite in the Topopah Spring Tuff, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Yucca Mountain, a ridge of Miocene volcanic rocks in southwest Nevada, is being characterized as a site for a potential high-level radioactive waste repository. One issue of concern for the future performance of the potential repository is the movement of water in and around the potential repository horizon. Past water movement in this unsaturated zone is indicated by fluid inclusions trapped in calcite coatings on fracture footwall surfaces and in some lithophysal cavities. Some of the fluid inclusions have homogenization temperatures above the present-day geotherm (J.F. Whelan, written communication), so determining the ages of the calcite associated with those fluid inclusions is important in understanding the thermal history of the potential repository site. Calcite ages have been constrained by uranium-lead dating of silica polymorphs (opal and chalcedony) that are present in most coatings. The opal and chalcedony ages indicate that deposition of the calcite and opal coatings in the welded part of the Topopah Spring Tuff (TSw hydrogeologic unit) spanned nearly the entire history of the 12.8-million-year-old rock mass at fairly uniform overall long-term rates of deposition (within a factor of five). Constraining the age of a layer of calcite associated with specific fluid inclusions is complicated. Calcite is commonly bladed with complex textural relations, and datable opal or chalcedony may be millions of years older or younger than the calcite layer or may be absent from the coating entirely. Therefore, a more direct method of dating the calcite is presented in this paper by developing a model for strontium evolution in pore water in the TSw as recorded by the strontium coprecipitated with calcium in the calcite. Although the water that precipitated the calcite in fractures and cavities may not have been in local isotopic equilibrium with the pore water, the strontium isotope composition of all water in the TSw is primarily controlled by water-rock interaction in the overlying nonwelded and essentially unfractured Paintbrush Group tuffs (PTn). The method of dating secondary minerals from known strontium evolution rates in rocks cannot be used in this study because it assumes the water that deposited the minerals was in isotopic equilibrium with the rock, which is not the case for the pore water in the TSw. Therefore, the evolution of the strontium isotope composition of the water that deposited the calcite, as recorded by the strontium coprecipitated with calcium in the calcite, was used to develop a model for determining the age of the calcite.

Nevada↗

Issues in characterizing phenology from satellite observations

Over the past decade, many investigators have published techniques for deriving phenological parameters, especially the start of the growing season (SOS), from time-series satellite imagery. The principal satellite sensor for these studies is the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR). This study investigates the characteristics of four of the primary methods for identifying SOS; maximum curvature, delayed moving average, time of greatest NDVI increase and time of half-maximum NDVI. Comparisons between the methods illustrate biases for earlier or later SOS in the various methods and a relatively low statistical relationship among all four methods (r 2 =.10 to .35). Our analysis indicates that each of the methods is detecting fundamentally different stages of the start of season. These stages include snow melt, initial growth of herbaceous plants and understory, and first leaf; each of which is important in determining differences in land/atmosphere interactions. Users of these types of datasets need to be aware of the different environmental conditions being measured by the various approaches and use careful judgment in selecting the proper method.

Conference Paper↗

Examining terrestrial and subterranean sediment sources and transport processes in an urban sewershed with an entirely buried stream network, Washington, D.C., United States

Excessive fine-grained sediment runoff due to anthropogenic activities is a major environmental concern for watersheds worldwide, especially so for urban areas such as Washington, D.C. Dated grey infrastructure, i.e., the network of buried pipes and reservoirs managing water resources, can amplify existing issues with sediment runoff and associated pollutants. This infrastructure, which is generally designed to quickly transport stormwaters away from urban areas, contributes to urban stream syndrome. Recent studies have suggested aging subterranean infrastructure may be an unaccounted-for source of sediments. The composition of this possible sediment source, and the extent to which it contributes to urban sediment runoff, is poorly understood. Our study seeks to examine sediment sources and transport processes in an urban watershed with an entirely buried drainage network using sediment fingerprinting, with specific attention paid to differentiating between terrestrial and subterranean sources. We demonstrate here multiple novel approaches to sampling subterranean sources including augering and entering the buried drainage network itself. The results of this study may inform sediment managers and infrastructure engineers and allow for targeted sediment reduction responses.

District of Columbia↗

Risk management in a large-scale CO2 geosequestration pilot project, Illinois, USA

Like most large-scale infrastructure projects, carbon dioxide (CO 2) geological sequestration (GS) projects have multiple success criteria and multiple stakeholders. In this context "risk evaluation" encompasses multiple scales. Yet a risk management program aims to maximize the chance of project success by assessing, monitoring, minimizing all risks in a consistent framework. The 150,000-km2 Illinois Basin underlies much of the state of Illinois, USA, and parts of adjacent Kentucky and Indiana. Its potential for CO2 storage is first-rate among basins in North America, an impression that has been strengthened by early testing of the injection well of the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium's (MGSC's) Phase III large scale demonstration project, the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP). The IBDP, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), represents a key trial of GS technologies and project-management techniques. Though risks are specific to each site and project, IBDP risk management methodologies provide valuable experience for future GS projects. IBDP views risk as the potential for negative impact to any of these five values: health and safety, environment, financial, advancing the viability and public acceptability of a GS industry, and research. Research goals include monitoring one million metric tonnes of injected CO2 in the subsurface. Risk management responds to the ways in which any values are at risk: for example, monitoring is designed to reduce uncertainties in parameter values that are important for research and system control, and is also designed to provide public assurance. Identified risks are the primary basis for risk-reduction measures: risks linked to uncertainty in geologic parameters guide further characterization work and guide simulations applied to performance evaluation. Formally, industry defines risk (more precisely risk criticality) as the product L*S, the Likelihood multiplied by the Severity of negative impact. L and S are each evaluated on five-point scales, yielding a theoretical spread in risk values of 1 through 25. So defined, these judgment-based values are categorical and ordinal - they do not represent physically measurable quantities, but are nonetheless useful for comparison and therefore decision support. The "risk entities" first evaluated are FEPs - conceptual Features, Events, and Processes based on the list published by Quintessa Ltd. After concrete scenarios are generated based on selected FEPs, scenarios become the critical entities whose associated risks are evaluated and tracked. In IBDP workshops, L and S values for 123 FEPs were generated through expert elicitation. About 30 experts in the project or in GS in general were assigned among six facilitated working groups, and each group was charged to envision risks within a sphere of project operations. Working groups covered FEPs with strong spatial characteristics - such as those related to the injection wellbore and simulated plume footprint - and "nonspatial" FEPs related to finance, regulations, legal, and stakeholder issues. Within these working groups, experts shared information, examined assumptions, refined and extended the FEP list, calibrated responses, and provided initial L and S values by consensus. Individual rankings were collected in a follow-up process via emailed spreadsheets. For each of L and S, three values were collected: Lower Bound, Best Guess, and Upper Bound. The Lower-Upper Bound ranges and the spreads among experts can be interpreted to yield rough confidence measures. Based on experts' responses, FEPs were ranked in terms of their L*S risk levels. FEP rankings were determined from individual (not consensus or averaged) results, thus no high-risk responses were damped out. The higher-risk FEPs were used to generate one or more concrete, well defined risk-bearing scenarios for each FEP. Any FEP scored by any expert as having associated risk of

Conference Paper↗