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Eruptive history of northern Harrat Rahat—Volume, timing, and composition of volcanism over the past 1.2 million years

Harrat Rahat, one of several large, basalt-dominated volcanic fields in the western part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is a prime example of continental, intraplate volcanism. Excellent exposure makes this an outstanding site to investigate changing volcanic flux and composition through time. We present 93 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages and 6 36 Cl surface-exposure ages for volcanic deposits throughout northern Harrat Rahat that, integrated with a new geologic map, define 12 eruptive stages. Exposed volcanic deposits in the study area erupted less than 1.2 million years ago (Ma), and 214 of 234 identified eruptions occurred less than 570 thousand years ago (ka). Two eruptions were in the Holocene, including a historically described basaltic eruption in 1256 C.E. and a trachyte eruption newly recognized as Holocene (4.2±5.2 ka). An estimated approximately 82 cubic kilometers (km 3 ; dense rock equivalent) of volcanic products can be documented as having erupted since 1.2 Ma, though this is a lower limit because of concealment of deposits older than 570 ka. Over the last 570 thousand years (k.y.), the average eruption rate was 0.14 cubic kilometers per thousand years (km 3 /k.y.), but volcanism was episodic with periods alternating between low (0.04–0.06 km 3 /k.y.) and high (0.1–0.3 km 3 /k.y.) effusion rates. Before 180 ka, eruptions vented from the volcanic field’s dominant eastern vent axis and from a subsidiary, diffuse, western vent axis. After 180 ka, volcanism focused along the eastern vent axis, and the composition of volcanism varied systematically along its length from basalt dominated in the north to trachyte dominated in the south. We hypothesize that these compositional variations younger than 180 k.y. reflect the growth of a mafic intrusive complex beneath the southern part of the vent axis, which led to the development of evolved magmas. Lastly, these new age data allow for a reassessment of the volcanic recurrence interval at northern Harrat Rahat. Based on available data, volcanism in northern Harrat Rahat over the last 180 k.y. is poorly described using a Poisson distribution with a single recurrence interval. Instead, data for northern Harrat Rahat are better described using a mixed exponential distribution that is applicable for volcanic systems characterized by two different eruptive states, where one state with a longer recurrence interval corresponding to periods of low eruption frequency and one state with a shorter recurrence interval corresponding to periods of high eruption frequency. The preferred model for northern Harrat Rahat over the last 180 k.y. uses a long recurrence interval of 4.0 k.y. and a short recurrence interval of 0.22 k.y.

Professional Paper

Computation of regional groundwater budgets for the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system

Computation of detailed groundwater flow budgets for subdivisions of Virginia’s Coastal Plain aquifer system has enabled quantification and more thorough understanding of groundwater flow within this important water resource. A zone budget analysis conducted on previously published groundwater models of the Virginia Coastal Plain and Virginia Eastern Shore shows that groundwater conditions vary substantially throughout the Coastal Plain aquifer system due to local variations in hydrogeology and historical and ongoing variations in groundwater use and management. Decades of substantial groundwater withdrawal from the Coastal Plain aquifer system have fundamentally altered groundwater flow from pre-development conditions. Rates of sustainable withdrawal are limited because the downward groundwater flow rate into confined aquifers supplying groundwater is a relatively small portion of the total groundwater water budget for the aquifer system. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Coastal Plain model show that groundwater flow is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to rivers and coastal water bodies and downward through a series of underlying aquifers and confining units to the Potomac aquifer, which is the deepest aquifer and the source of most groundwater withdrawals. Downward flow into the Potomac aquifer currently is estimated to be only 7 percent of total net precipitation-derived net recharge at the land surface but makes up about 66 percent of inflow to the aquifer in Virginia, with much of the remaining inflow occurring laterally from areas outside of defined groundwater budget regions in Virginia. For several decades prior to 2010, high rates of withdrawal from the Potomac aquifer resulted in substantial decline in groundwater storage in the aquifer and in most overlying aquifers and confining units. From 2010 to 2025, rates of withdrawal substantially lower than the historical maximum have resulted in small net increases in groundwater storage in the confined aquifer system for most regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain. Nevertheless, for the same period, groundwater storage for the entire model domain continues to incrementally decline, indicating that storage recovery in Virginia is offset by a continued decrease in storage in areas beneath the Chesapeake Bay or in adjacent areas of Maryland and North Carolina. Withdrawals from the Potomac aquifer have induced substantial downward flow which is a large part of groundwater budgets for confined aquifers such as the Potomac. Downward groundwater flow continues under current conditions, but because vertical flow rates are a function of the difference between water pressure in the upper surficial systems and lower confined units, those rates are lower than those in earlier decades as the confined water levels partially recover from larger groundwater withdrawals in the past. Geographically, groundwater flow is generally inward from perimeter regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain toward central regions with the largest withdrawal rates. Estimated groundwater inflow from coastal regions could be contributing to saltwater intrusion, though that was not measured directly in this study. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Eastern Shore peninsula, a geographic region of the Virginia Coastal Plain, show that groundwater flow for that isolated aquifer system is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to coastal water bodies and downward into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system, which is the source of most withdrawals. Downward groundwater flow into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system is estimated to be less than 2 percent of total recharge and less than 9 percent of net recharge at the water table but makes up over 93 percent of all inflow to the confined aquifer system. Decades of substantial but relatively consistent groundwater withdrawals have induced greater downward flow rates into the confined aquifer system but also have resulted in loss of groundwater from storage. Currently, estimated storage loss accounts for slightly under 7 percent of withdrawals from the confined aquifer system. The current withdrawal rate from the confined Yorktown-Eastover system is near the highest reported rate for the Eastern Shore, which means that the storage depletion is expected to continue, even though groundwater levels appear to be relatively stable. Estimated groundwater flow rates upward from the confining unit underlying the Yorktown-Eastover system and small rates of inflow from coastal water bodies underscore ongoing concerns about up-coning and lateral intrusion of salty groundwater.

EarthArXiv

Forecast, monitor, adapt: A multi-agency strategy to protect people from postfire debris flows

In 2020, a wildfire burned across Glenwood Canyon in Colorado, USA. A history of postfire debris flows in the region and a hazard assessment for the burn area indicated that potentially life-threatening debris flows could be triggered by rainfall within months of a wildfire. As a result, four government agencies evaluated strategies to help mitigate hazards, including the loss of human life, that may be associated with debris-flow events. After the fire, 26 large debris flows occurred in the summer of 2021 and three sediment-laden flows occurred in the summer of 2023, but there were no major injuries or fatalities reported. We found that integrating hazard assessment/ forecasting, monitoring, and adaptation scenarios was a successful strategy for reducing postfire debris-flow risks to human life (including injuries and fatalities). Weather forecasts and estimates of debris-flow triggering rainfall thresholds, likelihood, and volume were used to anticipate the timing, location, and magnitude of debris-flow events. Rainfall monitoring and detailed recordkeeping of storms that triggered debris flows were used to validate and update debris-flow warning thresholds that varied with time following the wildfire. Although the governmental agencies working in this burn area had distinct and differing agency mandates, they were able to integrate information to reduce the risk of debris-flow events to human life.

Colorado

Examining 22 years of ambient seismic wavefield at Mount St. Helens

An increase in seismic activity precedes most volcanic eruptions. Whereas event-based forecasting approaches have been successful, some eruptions remain unanticipated, resulting in casualties and damage. Our study leverages the recent advancements in ambient field seismology. We explore features extracted from continuous ambient fields using traditional methods, for example, peak ground velocity, peak ground acceleration, root mean square, root median square, real-time seismic amplitude measurement, and novel methods (displacement seismic amplitude ratio and spectral width). In addition, we explore unsupervised learning of higher order wavelet features using scattering networks. We find that combining all the methods was necessary to disentangle the effects of seismic sources from structural changes at Mount St. Helens. Although the ambient wavefield-based approach does not yield additional or more significant precursory signals than event-based methods at Mount St. Helens, our study demonstrates that the ambient wavefield provides supplementary information, mainly about structural changes and complements traditional methods. The ambient seismic wavefield offers additional insights into long-lasting processes. We find enhanced wave attenuation correlating with geochemical measurements. We interpret this as ongoing structural changes, such as dome growth or the evolution of the volcanic conduit system. On annual and decadal timescales, we interpret seasonal seismic attenuation in the shallow subsurface as groundwater fluctuations, corroborated by observations at the nearby Spirit Lake level. This multimethod approach at Mount St. Helens sheds light on a volcanic system’s underlying dynamics and structure.

Washington

Geologic map of the Greater Antilles and Virgin Islands

Introduction The geologic map of the Greater Antilles and Virgin Islands is a compilation of information from the literature, integrated to provide a seamless geologic map of the region. This map was prepared to serve as a base map for a mineral resource assessment of the region. Several small-scale regional geologic maps of the region have been prepared in the past. This report supersedes an earlier version of the geologic map of the Greater Antilles and the Virgin Islands that was released as U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File Report 2019–1036. For this report, the regional geologic overview shown on sheet 1 covers Cuba; the island of Hispaniola, which includes Haiti and Dominican Republic; Jamaica; the Cayman Islands; Puerto Rico; and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Sheet 2 shows the geology of Cuba and Cayman Islands, sheet 3 the geology of Jamaica, sheet 4 the geology of Hispaniola, and sheet 5 the geology of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. Accompanying the maps are three tables: table 1 lists the map units (in alphabetical order by map-unit label), their ages, and the countries or territories in which they can be found. These are listed in alphabetical order for ease in locating unit names from the symbols on the maps. Table 2 is a list of sources for the geologic map compilation of Puerto Rico. Table 3 shows formations in the Devil’s Race Course Group of Jamaica.

Greater Antilles, Virgin Islands

Fossil diatoms in Arctic marine surface sediments

Diatoms are one of the main constituents of marine phytoplankton in the Arctic, and thanks to their siliceous skeletons, diatom fossils are relatively well preserved in sediments. Due to their species-specific sensitivity to different ocean conditions, their abundance and assemblages in sediments are routinely used by paleoceanographers to reconstruct the state of the surface ocean in the past (Koç 2007). By using statistical methods, we can obtain valuable knowledge about their ecological preferences (Oksman et al. 2019) and generate quantitative reconstructions of various parameters, such as sea-surface temperature and sea-ice concentration through time (Krawczyk et al. 2021; Sha et al. 2014). The Marine Arctic Diatoms (MARDI) working group (WG) ( pastglobalchanges.org/mardi ) aims to advance knowledge on marine-diatom ecology and diatom-based reconstructions by compiling and harmonizing data from surface-sediment samples across the Arctic.

Pages Magazine

Paleoseismology of the Sawtooth fault and implications for fault behavior in the epicentral region of the 2020 Mw 6.5 Stanley, Idaho, earthquake

The 2020 moment magnitude ( M w ⁠⁠ ) 6.5 Stanley, Idaho, earthquake raised questions about the history and extent of complex faulting in the northwestern Centennial Tectonic Belt (CTB) and its relation to the Sawtooth normal fault and Eocene Trans‐Challis fault system (TCFS). To explore faulting in this area, we excavated a paleoseismic trench across the Sawtooth fault along the western margin of the CTB, and compared an early Holocene (9.1 ± 2.1 ka, 1δ ⁠ ) rupture at the site with lacustrine paleoseismic data and fault mapping in the 2020 epicentral region. We find: (1) a history of partial to full rupture of the Sawtooth fault ( M w ⁠ 6.8–7.4), (2) that shorter ruptures ( M w ≤ ⁠⁠6.9 ) are likely along distributed and discontinuous faults in the epicentral region, (3) that this complex system that hosted the 2020 earthquake is not directly linked to the Sawtooth fault, (4) that the northeast‐trending TCFS likely plays a role in controlling fault length and rupture continuity for adjacent faults, and (5) that parts of the TCFS may facilitate displacement transfer between normal faults that accommodate crustal extension and rotation. Our results help unravel complex faulting in the CTB and imply that relict structures can help inform regional seismic hazard assessments.

Idaho

Shallow geologic framework of the Mississippi Sound and the potential for sediment resources

The Mississippi Sound, an estuarine environment located between the mainland and barrier islands bordering the northern Gulf of America (formerly the Gulf of Mexico), serves as a vital ecosystem for the States of Mississippi and Alabama. Spanning approximately 100 kilometers from east to west and covering 1,400 square kilometers, the sound is home to marine industry and ports, and its shallow and brackish waters sustain a diverse array of marine life. Barrier islands along the southern edge of the sound separate the microtidal estuary from the Gulf of America. This protection from gulf wave action mediates current flow within the sound, resulting in predominantly fine-grained sediment deposition along the seafloor. This study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, provides insight on fluvial and tidal processes spanning the past 5,000 years. The report synthesizes existing research to provide a comprehensive overview of the sound geology, from Pleistocene origins to present-day morphology, and utilizes high-resolution single channel seismic profiles and sediment data to identify and map sedimentary deposits and morphologic features at and below the seafloor. Despite its ecological significance, the Mississippi Sound faces environmental challenges, including water-quality issues, habitat degradation, storm-induced erosion, and the ongoing threats of sea-level rise and environmental changes. This study uses the present-day understanding of the sound's geology to inform coastal management decisions, hazard assessment, and potential mineral resources.

Louisiana, Mississippi

Assimilation of reduced carbon triggers platinum alloy saturation in mafic and ultramafic magmas

It is generally observed that magmatic sulfide ores have higher ratios of Pd/Pt than the mantle-like values of their parental magmas. This discrepancy has defied simple explanation because the partitioning behavior of both elements between sulfide and silicate liquids is very similar. Assimilation of sulfur- and carbon-rich country rocks by mafic and ultramafic magmas is considered a critical, if not essential, step in the formation of magmatic base metal sulfide deposits. Although there is general consensus that the assimilation of external sulfur and carbon promotes sulfide saturation, the effect of carbon assimilation on the solubilities of platinum-group elements in natural S-bearing silicate melt has been overlooked. In this study, we investigate the variations of platinum and palladium solubilities during assimilation of graphite and methane through thermodynamic modeling, in comparison with data from an array of highly distinctive magmatic sulfide ore systems representing ages from Archean to Paleozoic, melt compositions from komatiite to basalt, and magmatic settings including lavas, hypabyssal intrusions, plutonic continental arc roots, and plutonic layered intrusions, namely: Raglan, Norilsk-Talnakh, Lac des Iles, and the J-M Reef of the Stillwater Complex. We model assimilation-fractional crystallization processes to estimate the reduction of oxygen fugacity ( ⁠fO2⁠ ) of the melt due to incorporation of graphite and methane. The simulations show that although Pd remains highly soluble during the progressive assimilation of reduced carbon, Pt solubility decreases significantly as the silicate melt becomes increasingly reduced. With less than 8 % of sediment assimilation, Pt alloy may saturate and then deviate from sulfide-undersaturated silicate melts, concomitantly increasing the Pd/Pt value of the remaining melts of the Raglan and Norilsk-Talnakh systems. For the Lac des Iles and Stillwater systems, a higher extent of assimilation is needed to reach Pt saturation because of the relatively carbon-poor nature of the lower crustal rocks. The assimilation of methane volatiles is shown to be more effective than graphite assimilation, and it provides a pathway to Pt alloy fractionation in the absence of detectable amounts of bulk host-rock assimilation. High Pd/Pt values have been documented in many world-class magmatic sulfide deposits whose parental magmas have demonstrably experienced crustal contamination. Our model suggests that although anomalous Pd/Pt values may be explained by other mechanisms such as incongruent melting of preexisting sulfide or differences in the diffusivities of the metals within achieving equilibration, the assimilation of graphite or methane may play an important role in the global occurrence of magmatic sulfide ores with elevated Pd/Pt values.

Economic Geology

SUTRA— A code for simulation of saturated-unsaturated, variable-density groundwater flow with solute or energy transport—Documentation of the version 4.0 enhancements—Freeze-thaw capability, saturation and relative-permeability relations, spatially varying properties, and enhanced budget and velocity outputs

Version 4.0 of the Saturated-Unsaturated Transport (SUTRA) software code provides the capability to simulate the freezing and thawing of groundwater during energy transport simulations under saturated and unsaturated conditions. In addition to the types of hydrogeologic processes that SUTRA has been able to simulate in the past, this version can be used to study the effects of the freeze-thaw process on the flow and energy dynamics of hydrogeologic systems. The freeze-thaw simulation capability accounts for the latent heat of fusion and allows thermal property values to vary with changing total-water saturation, liquid-water saturation, and ice saturation. It allows the effective permeability of the porous medium to change as a result of freezing and thawing. This version also provides several user-selectable relations for the dependence of total-water saturation on fluid pressure, the dependence of liquid-water saturation on temperature during freezing and thawing, and the dependence of relative permeability on liquid saturation, as well as three user-selectable formulae for defining the bulk thermal conductivity of a mixture of solid grains, liquid water, ice, and air. For unsaturated simulations without freezing, the selectable total-water saturation relations eliminate the need for the user to program these and their associated relative-permeability functions, as had been required in previous SUTRA versions. Optional nonlinear dependence of fluid density on temperature, which covers the range from supercooled (about −50 degrees Celsius) to superheated (about 400 degrees Celsius), is also provided. Additionally, this version makes it possible to spatially vary parameters that, in previous versions of SUTRA, were required to be spatially uniform: solid-matrix properties, adsorption parameters, and parameters for production of solute mass or energy. Spatial variation is also allowed for the newly included freeze-thaw process parameters. Additional enhancements provide (1) output of water-mass and energy budgets that include values of all component terms in the governing balance equations, and (2) output of Darcy velocities (fluid fluxes), in addition to the velocity output provided by previous SUTRA versions. These enhanced outputs allow fuller interpretation of simulation results, especially for freeze-thaw phenomena. The set of processes simulated by this version of SUTRA are useful for studying a wide range of hydrogeologic system types, conditions, and questions. For cryohydrogeologic simulations, however, this version of the code is limited in that (1) it does not simulate thermomechanical effects of freeze-thaw, (2) pressure changes due to water density change during freezing are neglected, (3) ice saturation cannot exceed the initial porosity of the simulated medium, and (4) cryosuction, the migration of liquid water toward freezing fronts, is neglected. Furthermore, this version does not account for air flow or for water vaporization and sublimation under unsaturated conditions.

Techniques and Methods

Geologic framework and hydrostratigraphy of the Edwards and Trinity aquifers within Hays County, Texas

During 2023–24, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Edwards Aquifer Authority, revised a previous publication of the geologic framework and hydrostratigraphy of the Edwards and Trinity aquifers that was completed during 2018 within Hays County, Texas. The purpose of this report is to present the updated geologic framework and hydrostratigraphy of the rocks containing the Edwards and Trinity aquifers in Hays County from field observations of the surficial expressions of the rocks. The report includes a detailed 1:24,000-scale hydrostratigraphic map with names and descriptions of the geologic framework and hydrostratigraphic units (HSUs) in the study area. The study includes updates to the interpretation of the Kainer Formation of the Edwards Group with the addition of a burrowed unit between the basal nodular and dolomitic members. Hydrostratigraphy was also updated with the addition of the Seco Pass HSU for the burrowed member of the Kainer Formation. The study also includes updates to the interpretation of the hydrostratigraphy of the Trinity aquifer with the addition of the cavernous HSU at the top of the upper zone of the Trinity aquifer and the Herff Falls HSU between the Bulverde and Rust HSUs of the middle zone of the Trinity aquifer. This updated report provides additional information about a complex aquifer system. The complexity in the aquifer system results from a combination of the original depositional history, bioturbation, development of primary and secondary porosity, postdepositional diagenesis, fracturing, and faulting.

Texas

Chronic exposure to waterborne nickel significantly reduced growth of juvenile crayfish (Faxonius virilis)

Crayfish are critical functional components of aquatic ecosystems. Previous research has documented adverse effects of mineral extraction on crayfish. Here, we characterize potential risks of mining-derived waterborne nickel (Ni) to crayfish by documenting the effects of dissolved Ni on growth and food consumption of juvenile virile crayfish ( Faxonius virilis) in a 28-day chronic laboratory exposure. Nominal Ni concentrations ranged from 31.25 to 500 micrograms per liter (µg/L; pH = 7.96 ± 0.20, hardness = 150 ± 1 milligrams per liter as calcium carbonate). Crayfish survival, carapace length, and wet weight were measured. After 28 days of exposure, a 24-h feeding trial was performed to determine differences in food consumption. During the growth trial, 99% of crayfish survived. Change in wet weight and final wet weight were the most sensitive endpoints, with 20% effect concentrations of 24.8 and 22.6 µg/L Ni, respectively. Crayfish exposed to an average of 438 µg/L Ni consumed 41% less, and weighed 65.1% less, than control crayfish. These results suggest chronic, sublethal exposure to waterborne Ni may have negative effects on crayfish growth. Reduced growth and consumption rates in crayfish could have wide-ranging consequences throughout aquatic ecosystems since crayfish are consumers, prey, keystone trophic regulators, and ecosystem engineers. Finally, these results could inform bioenergetics and may be coupled with population models to predict potential changes in population sizes of native and invasive crayfishes.

Ecotoxicology

Hydrologic variability and groundwater age of springs in eastern Oregon and northern Nevada, USA

The ecological importance of springs in semiarid regions is far greater than their small size and sparse distribution, yet little is known about the hydrologic functioning of these systems. During 2016–22, 261 springs were visited in the volcanic terrane of eastern Oregon and northern Nevada. When conditions were suitable, measurements of discharge, water temperature, and specific conductance were made, and samples for the analysis of carbon-14, tritium, and water stable isotopes (WSI) were collected. A subset of 60 springs was revisited during different seasons in the same year and during the dry season in multiple years to evaluate variability in discharge, chemistry, and groundwater age. Specific conductance and WSI varied considerably among springs across the study area but were unexpectedly stable across seasons and years at individual springs. Seasonal and interannual variability in spring discharge was related to the residence time of the discharging groundwater. Springs discharging older groundwater (10 3 –10 4 years) had significantly less variability in their discharge compared to springs discharging younger groundwater (10 0 –10 1 years). Variability among springs discharging younger groundwater included cessation of late-summer discharge at 18 % of the repeat-visit springs. A logistic regression model predicted the age of discharging spring water with 89 % accuracy using only the spring latitude, longitude, elevation, and δ 2 H value. This study framework provides a simple, inexpensive, and robust method to provisionally assess the hydrologic behavior of springs having little or no prior information in understudied, semiarid regions across the globe.

Nevada, Oregon

Ringtail (Bassariscus astutus) survival in southwestern Oregon

The effective conservation and management of small carnivore populations requires understanding species’ life-history traits and identifying important vital rates that drive population trajectories. However, many of these species are rare or elusive and of state or federal conservation concern, and demographic information is often lacking and difficult to obtain. At the northern limit of their range in Oregon, USA, ringtail ( Bassariscus astutus ) occupy mid-elevation forests and are a species of conservation concern because of their limited distribution and suspected low density. We initiated a radio-telemetry study in 2020 to estimate monthly and annual survival of ringtail in southwest Oregon. We monitored 26 ringtail from November 2020 to October 2022 and estimated survival rates using a known-fate framework and Program MARK. Model-averaged monthly survival estimates ranged from lows of 0.963 (SE = 0.022, 95% CI = 0.887–0.988) in spring (Feb–May) of 2021 to highs of 0.980 (SE = 0.018, 95% CI = 0.889–0.997) in summer (Jun–Oct) of 2022. Model-averaged estimates of annual survival were 0.695 (SE = 0.176, 95% CI = 0.310–0.920) during 2020–2021 and 0.728 (SE = 0.168, 95% CI = 0.336–0.934) during 2021–2022. Predation was the leading cause of mortality, but notably, no mortalities could be attributed to avian predation. Survival rates were much higher within forested landscapes in Oregon than for populations in the southwestern United States, which may have implications for regional conservation and management strategies.

Oregon

Computation of regional groundwater budgets for the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system

Computation of detailed groundwater flow budgets for subdivisions of the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system has enabled quantification and more thorough understanding of groundwater flow within this important water resource. A zone budget analysis based on previously published groundwater models of the Virginia Coastal Plain and Virginia Eastern Shore indicates that groundwater conditions vary substantially throughout the Coastal Plain aquifer system because of local variations in hydrogeology and historical and ongoing variations in groundwater use and management. Decades of substantial groundwater withdrawal from the Coastal Plain aquifer system have altered groundwater flow from predevelopment conditions. Rates of sustainable withdrawal are limited because the downward groundwater flow rate into confined aquifers is a relatively small part of the total groundwater budget for the aquifer system compared to the rate of recharge at the land surface. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Coastal Plain model indicate that groundwater flow is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to rivers and coastal waterbodies and downward through a series of underlying aquifers and confining units to the Potomac aquifer, which is the deepest aquifer and the source of most groundwater withdrawals. Downward flow into the Potomac aquifer is estimated to be only 7 percent of total net precipitation-derived net recharge at the land surface but makes up about 66 percent of inflow to the aquifer in Virginia, with much of the remaining inflow occurring laterally from outside of defined groundwater budget regions in Virginia. For several decades prior to 2010, high rates of withdrawal from the Potomac aquifer resulted in substantial decline in groundwater storage in the aquifer and in most overlying aquifers and confining units. From 2010 to 2023, rates of withdrawal substantially lower than the historical maximum resulted in small net increases in groundwater storage in the confined aquifer system for most regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain. Nevertheless, for the same period, groundwater storage for the entire model domain continues to incrementally decline, indicating that storage recovery in Virginia is offset by a continued decrease in storage in areas beneath the Chesapeake Bay or adjacent areas of Maryland and North Carolina. Withdrawals from the Potomac aquifer have induced substantial downward flow which is a large part of groundwater budgets for confined aquifers such as the Potomac. For the most recent simulated conditions (2023) downward groundwater flow continues, but because vertical flow rates are a function of the difference between water pressure in the upper surficial systems and lower confined units, rates of downward flow are lower than those in earlier decades as the confined water levels partially recover from larger groundwater withdrawals in the past. Geographically, groundwater flow is generally inward from perimeter regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain toward central regions with the largest withdrawal rates. Groundwater inflow from coastal regions could be contributing to saltwater intrusion, even though that was not measured in this study. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Eastern Shore peninsula, a geographic region of the Virginia Coastal Plain, indicate that groundwater flow for that isolated aquifer system is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to coastal water bodies and downward into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system, which is the source of most withdrawals. Downward groundwater flow into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system is estimated to be less than 2 percent of total recharge and less than 9 percent of net recharge at the water table but makes up more than 93 percent of all inflow to the confined aquifer system. Decades of substantial but relatively consistent groundwater withdrawals have induced greater downward flow rates into the confined aquifer system but also have resulted in loss of groundwater from storage. For the most recent simulated period (2023), estimated storage loss accounts for slightly under 7 percent of withdrawals from the confined aquifer system. The reported withdrawal rate for this period from the confined Yorktown-Eastover system is near the highest reported rate for the Virginia Eastern Shore, which means that the storage depletion is expected to continue, even though groundwater levels appear to be relatively stable. Estimated groundwater flow rates upward from the confining unit underlying the Yorktown-Eastover system and low rates of inflow from coastal water bodies underscore ongoing concerns about up-coning and lateral intrusion of salty groundwater.

Virginia

An inset groundwater-flow model to evaluate the effects of layering configuration on model calibration and assess managed aquifer recharge near Shellmound, Mississippi

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a high-resolution inset groundwater-flow model in the Mississippi Delta as part of an interdisciplinary collaboration coordinated by the Mississippi Alluvial Plain project to provide a tool that stakeholders can use to support water-resource management decisions. Groundwater withdrawals from the Mississippi River Valley alluvial (MRVA) aquifer have been vital to support agricultural production in the region, but substantial groundwater-level declines near Shellmound, Mississippi, have caused concerns for long-term sustainability of the aquifer. To better understand the subsurface and try to mitigate the long-term groundwater-level declines, stakeholders have undertaken actions including a Groundwater Transfer and Injection Pilot (GTIP) project using a riverbank filtration-based managed aquifer recharge approach. The pilot project consisted of extracting groundwater near the Tallahatchie River and reinjecting it into the aquifer 3 kilometers west where water levels have substantially declined. A high-resolution airborne electromagnetic (AEM) survey was also completed to collect electrical resistivity data to support the GTIP project and the development of the groundwater model. The inset groundwater-flow model was developed to (1) integrate the AEM data into the optimal layering configuration of the MRVA aquifer that the available observation data can support through calibration, and (2) assess the potential effect of the GTIP project on the groundwater levels. The AEM data were processed into three different layering configurations leading to the development of model A (18 layers), model B (16 layers), and model C (8 layers), all at a 100- x 100-meter cell spatial resolution using the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference flow model 6 code with Newton-Raphson formulation. The model development process integrated recent advances in modeling, such as the incorporation of AEM data, the use of outputs from the soil-water-balance (SWB) model, and the Aquaculture and Irrigation Water-Use Model, and was facilitated by robust automation using the open-source python packages Modflow-setup and SFRmaker. Using Parameter Estimation ++ Iterative Ensemble Smoother, the three numerical groundwater-flow models (models A, B, and C) were calibrated against a set of observations, which included aquifer groundwater levels, streamflows, stream stage, and aquifer transmissivity. Results indicate that the detailed representation of MRVA aquifer layers in model A produced the best calibrated model by history matching, and the integration of data representing surficial connectivity played a key role in improving groundwater recharge and enhancing the ability of the model to match groundwater levels in the cone of depression. A forecast model simulated the managed aquifer recharge approach, and the results indicated that, given average irrigation and recharge conditions (2010–15), the GTIP project has the potential to induce groundwater-level increases of as much as 3 meters around the injection site, but a sustained increase would require repetition in subsequent years of water transfer at 2022 rates or above.

Mississippi

Core microbiomes as a potential fingerprinting method of Western USA dust sources

Introduction: Changing frequency and intensity of dust emissions impacts ecosystems and human health. Dust carries microbes, nutrients, heavy metals, and other materials that may change environmental biogeochemistry at deposition sites. Identifying dust sources provides key information on where and when mitigation strategies should be employed. However, commonly used geochemical or isotopic tracers are often not capable of distinguishing between geographic regions. Methods: We explored whether soil bacterial communities may provide distinct fingerprints of dust sources in the western United States. We identified bacterial core communities of dust from ten locations monitored by the National Wind Erosion Research Network (NWERN) with varied land use (cropland, rangeland, and playa), and compared communities to location, soil, and regional characteristics. Samples were collected monthly from Modified Wilson and Cooke (MWAC) samplers, composited by season (spring, summer, and fall), and analyzed using 16S rRNA sequencing. Results: We found distinct bacterial core communities that reflected dust source characteristics. In order of importance, precipitation levels ( p = 0.0001), location ( p = 0.0001), soil texture ( p = 0.0001), seasonality ( p = 0.0001), and elevation (p = 0.0002) were correlated with bacterial community composition. Discussion: Distinct bacterial core communities were associated with site characteristics such as biocrusts, playas, and military base proximity. Our results suggest that the use of core microbiomes may offer a fingerprinting method to identify dust source regions.

Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklaho

Latitudinal gradients of snow contamination in the Rocky Mountains associated with anthropogenic sources

Seasonal snow is an important source of drinking water and recreation, and for agriculture in the Rocky Mountain region. Monitoring snow-water quality can inform on the effects to the albedo and energy balance of the snowpack, and the sources of natural and anthropogenic aerosol and gases. This study analyzed metals in the seasonal snowpack from water year (WY) 2018 for 49 sites. Calcium, lanthanum, and cerium concentrations support the importance of mineral dust to the southern Rocky Mountains. Mercury (Hg), zinc (Zn), and cadmium (Cd) concentrations showed a similar spatial pattern to mineral dust, whereas antimony (Sb) concentrations were highest in the northern Rocky Mountains. To assess the relative contributions from dust versus anthropogenic contaminant sources, enrichment factors (EF) were calculated, with values above 10 indicating anthropogenic contamination. For Cd, Hg, Sb, and Zn, EF values exceeded 10 at northern sites. These observations were compared to spatial trends of EF values of Hg from WY2009 to WY2018, regional monitoring networks, and back trajectory analyses. The agreement between these datasets revealed temporally consistent contaminant sources and/or transport processes to the northern Rocky Mountains snowpack. Sources include current and historical mining and smelting in the region. Strategies to limit the emissions of these metals to the Northern Rockies could benefit from focusing on remediation of contaminated sites, and continued monitoring and mitigation of active mining and smelting.

Colorado , Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Utah, Wyomi