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At least 541 records · Page 30Linked to original sources

Predicting wading bird and aquatic faunal responses to ecosystem restoration scenarios

In large-scale conservation decisions, scenario planning identifies key uncertainties of ecosystem function linked to ecological drivers affected by management, incorporates ecological feedbacks, and scales up to answer questions robust to alternative futures. Wetland restoration planning requires an understanding of how proposed changes in surface hydrology, water storage, and landscape connectivity affect aquatic animal composition, productivity, and food-web function. In the Florida Everglades, reintroduction of historical hydrologic patterns is expected to increase productivity of all trophic levels. Highly mobile indicator species such as wading birds integrate secondary productivity from aquatic prey (small fishes and crayfish) over the landscape. To evaluate how fish, crayfish, and wading birds may respond to alternative hydrologic restoration plans, we compared predicted small fish density, crayfish density and biomass, and wading bird occurrence for existing conditions to four restoration scenarios that varied water storage and removal of levees and canals (i.e. decompartmentalization). Densities of small fish and occurrence of wading birds are predicted to increase throughout most of the Everglades under all restoration options because of increased flows and connectivity. Full decompartmentalization goes furthest toward recreating hypothesized historical patterns of fish density by draining excess water ponded by levees and hydrating areas that are currently drier than in the past. In contrast, crayfish density declined and species composition shifted under all restoration options because of lengthened hydroperiods (i.e. time of inundation). Under full decompartmentalization, the distribution of increased prey available for wading birds shifted south, closer to historical locations of nesting activity in Everglades National Park.

Restoration Ecology↗

Checklists: An under-used tool for the inventory and monitoring of plants and animals

Checklists are widely used to catalog field observations of plants and animals. We used 25 years of bird checklist data from the Études des Populations d’Oiseaux du Quebec program to examine the ability of checklists to produce reliable conservation, management, and ecological information. We found that checklists can provide reliable information on changes in bird populations, phenology, and geographic and climate abundance patterns at local, regional, and continental scales. Professional and amateur conservation groups that need to develop extensive monitoring programs should take advantage of the fact that checklists, unlike other time-consuming and expensive techniques, can be used to detect large-scale changes in an entire community of species.

Quebec↗

Control of avian influenza: Philosophy and perspectives on behalf of migratory birds

Aquatic birds are considered the primary reservoir for influenza A viruses (Nettles et al., 1987). However, there is little concern about avian influenza among conservation agencies responsible for the welfare of those species. IN contrast, the poultry industry has great concern about avian influenza and view aquatic birds as a source for infection of poultry flocks. In some instances, differences in these perspectives created conflict between conservation agencies and the poultry industry. I speak on behalf of migratory birds, but philosophy and perspectives offered are intended to be helpful to the poultry industry in their efforts to combat avian influenza.

Avian Diseases↗

Using urban forest assessment tools to model bird habitat potential

The alteration of forest cover and the replacement of native vegetation with buildings, roads, exotic vegetation, and other urban features pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. As more land becomes slated for urban development, identifying effective urban forest wildlife management tools becomes paramount to ensure the urban forest provides habitat to sustain bird and other wildlife populations. The primary goal of this study was to integrate wildlife suitability indices to an existing national urban forest assessment tool, i-Tree. We quantified available habitat characteristics of urban forests for ten northeastern U.S. cities, and summarized bird habitat relationships from the literature in terms of variables that were represented in the i-Tree datasets. With these data, we generated habitat suitability equations for nine bird species representing a range of life history traits and conservation status that predicts the habitat suitability based on i-Tree data. We applied these equations to the urban forest datasets to calculate the overall habitat suitability for each city and the habitat suitability for different types of land-use (e.g., residential, commercial, parkland) for each bird species. The proposed habitat models will help guide wildlife managers, urban planners, and landscape designers who require specific information such as desirable habitat conditions within an urban management project to help improve the suitability of urban forests for birds.

Landscape and Urban Planning↗

Role of banding in forest conservation strategy in eastern Guatemala

In response to a request from FUNDAECO, a Guatemalan non-government organization, we worked with them to develop a conservation strategy for the Cerro San Gil Protected Area and surrounding private lands. Volunteer banders from a dozen states and Canadian provinces assisted in long-term monitoring of populations of resident and migratory species through banding and point counts. Guatemalan students were trained to continue the research and initiate other conservation projects. Banding data helped demonstrate habitat and elevational affiliations, effects of habitat fragmentation, site fidelity, survival rates, local movements, and presence of rare species not otherwise detected. Banding was also an excellent teaching tool and provided videos for conservation programs on Guatemala national television. Roadside and off-road Breeding Bird Survey transects were used to map distribution of breeding species on habitat maps derived from satellite imagery, and point count surveys on private lands were used to identify prime habitats that warrant protection through conservation easements--a new concept for Central America.

North American Bird Bander↗

Avian foods, foraging and habitat conservation in world rice fields

Worldwide, rice (Oryza sativa) agriculture typically involves seasonal flooding and soil tillage, which provides a variety of microhabitats and potential food for birds. Water management in rice fields creates conditions ranging from saturated mud flats to shallow (<30 cm) water, thereby attracting different guilds of birds. Grain not collected during harvest (i.e. waste rice) is typically the most abundant potential food of birds in rice fields, with estimates of seed mass from North America ranging from 66672 kg/ha. Although initially abundant after harvest, waste rice availability can be temporally limited. Few abundance estimates for other foods, such as vertebrate prey or forage vegetation, exist for rice fields. Outside North America, Europe and Japan, little is known about abundance and importance of any avian food in rice fields. Currently, flooding rice fields after harvest is the best known management practice to attract and benefit birds. Studies from North America indicate specific agricultural practices (e.g. burning stubble) may increase use and improve access to food resources. Evaluating and implementing management practices that are ecologically sustainable, increase food for birds and are agronomically beneficial should be global priorities to integrate rice production and avian conservation. Finally, land area devoted to rice agriculture appears to be stable in the USA, declining in China, and largely unquantified in many regions. Monitoring trends in riceland area may provide information to guide avian conservation planning in rice-agriculture ecosystems.

Waterbirds↗

Forest Bird Distribution, Density and Trends in the Ka'u Region of Hawai'i Island

An accurate and current measure of population status and trend is necessary for conservation and management efforts. Scott and Kepler (1985) provided a comprehensive review of the status of native Hawaiian birds based on the extensive Hawaii Forest Bird Survey (HFBS) of the main islands (Scott et al. 1986). At that time, they documented declining populations and decreasing ranges for most species, and the extinction of several species over the previous 50 years. Many native bird species continue to decline throughout Hawai`i (Camp et al. In review, Gorresen et al. In prep.). The focus of this study is the mid-to-high elevation rainforest on the southeast windward slopes of Mauna Loa Volcano (Figure 1). Known as Ka`u, the region encompasses forest lands protected by Kamehameha Schools, The Nature Conservancy, Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park (HVNP), and the State of Hawai'i's Ka`u Forest Reserve, Kapapala Forest Reserve and Kapapala Cooperative Game Management Area,. Together these lands support one of three main concentrations of native forest birds on the Hawai`i Island (the other two being centered on the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge and Kulani-Keauhou area in the north and central windward part of the island, respectively.) Because this region harbors important populations of native and endangered forest birds in some of the best remaining forest habitat on the island, it has been a focus of forest bird surveys since the 1970s. The Ka`u region was first quantitatively surveyed in 1976 by the Hawaii Forest Bird Survey (Scott et al. 1986). Surveys were conducted by State of Hawai`i Division of Forestry and Wildlife in 1993 and 2002 and by the U.S. National Park Service and the U.S. Geological Survey in 2004 and 2005. In this report, we present analyses of the density, distribution and trends of native and introduced forest bird within the Ka`u region of Hawai`i Island. The analyses cover only those species with sufficient detections to model detection probability and calculate density. These include three endangered native passerines: `Akiapola`au (Hemignathus munroi), Hawai`i Creeper (Oreomystis mana), and Hawai`i `Akepa (Loxops coccineus); five more common native passerines: the Hawai`i `Elepaio (Chasiempis sandwichensis), `Oma`o (Myadestes obscurus), Hawai`i `Amakihi (Hemignathus virens), `I`iwi (Vestiaria coccinea) and `Apapane (Himatione sanguinea); and three non-native species: Red-billed Leiothrix (Leiothrix lutea), Japanese White-eye (Zosterops japonicus), and Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis).

Open-File Report↗

Homes for Birds

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Conservation Bulletin↗

Inventory of montane-nesting birds in Katmai and Lake Clark national parks and preserves

As part of the National Park Service&rsquo;s Inventory and Monitoring Program, biologists from the U. S. Geological Survey&rsquo;s Alaska Science Center conducted an inventory of birds in montane regions of Katmai and Lake Clark National Parks and Preserves during 2004&ndash;2006. We used a stratified random survey design to allocate samples by ecological subsection. To survey for birds, we conducted counts at 468 points across 29, 10-km x 10-km (6.2-mi x 6.2-mi) sample plots in Katmai and 417 points across 25, 10-km x 10-km sample plots in Lake Clark. We detected 92 and 104 species in Katmai and Lake Clark, respectively, including 40 species of conservation concern. We detected three species not previously recorded in Katmai (Ring-necked Duck [ Aythya collaris ], Lesser Scaup [ Aythya affinis ], and White-tailed Ptarmigan [ Lagopus leucurus ]) and two species not previously recorded in Lake Clark (Northern Flicker [ Colaptes auratus ] and Olive-sided Flycatcher [ Contopus cooperi ]). The most commonly detected species in both parks was Golden-crowned Sparrow ( Zonotrichia atricapilla ); Fox Sparrow ( Passerella iliaca ) and American Pipit ( Anthus rubescens ) were abundant and widely-distributed as well. We defined sites as low (100&ndash;350 m), middle (351&ndash;600 m), or high (601&ndash;1,620 m) elevation based on the distribution of vegetation cover, and similarly categorized the 34 most-commonly detected species based on the mean elevation of sample points at which they were detected. High elevation (i.e., alpine) sites were characterized by high percent cover of dwarf shrub and bare ground habitat and supported species like Rock Ptarmigan ( L. mutus ), American Golden-Plover ( Pluvialis dominica ), Wandering Tattler ( Tringa incana ), Surfbird ( Aphriza virgata ), and Snow Bunting ( Plectrophenax nivalis ), all species of conservation concern. This inventory represents the first systematic survey of birds nesting in montane regions of both parks. Results from this inventory can form the foundation of subsequent monitoring efforts

Alaska↗

Mapping migratory flyways in Asia using dynamic Brownian bridge movement models

Background Identifying movement routes and stopover sites is necessary for developing effective management and conservation strategies for migratory animals. In the case of migratory birds, a collection of migration routes, known as a flyway, is often hundreds to thousands of kilometers long and can extend across political boundaries. Flyways encompass the entire geographic range between the breeding and non-breeding areas of a population, species, or a group of species, and they provide spatial frameworks for management and conservation across international borders. Existing flyway maps are largely qualitative accounts based on band returns and survey data rather than observed movement routes. In this study, we use satellite and GPS telemetry data and dynamic Brownian bridge movement models to build upon existing maps and describe waterfowl space use probabilistically in the Central Asian and East Asian-Australasian Flyways. Results Our approach provided new information on migratory routes that was not easily attainable with existing methods to describe flyways. Utilization distributions from dynamic Brownian bridge movement models identified key staging and stopover sites, migration corridors and general flyway outlines in the Central Asian and East Asian-Australasian Flyways. A map of space use from ruddy shelducks depicted two separate movement corridors within the Central Asian Flyway, likely representing two distinct populations that show relatively strong connectivity between breeding and wintering areas. Bar-headed geese marked at seven locations in the Central Asian Flyway showed heaviest use at several stopover sites in the same general region of high-elevation lakes along the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our analysis of data from multiple Anatidae species marked at sites throughout Asia highlighted major movement corridors across species and confirmed that the Central Asian and East Asian-Australasian Flyways were spatially distinct. Conclusions The dynamic Brownian bridge movement model improves our understanding of flyways by estimating relative use of regions in the flyway while providing detailed, quantitative information on migration timing and population connectivity including uncertainty between locations. This model effectively quantifies the relative importance of different migration corridors and stopover sites and may help prioritize specific areas in flyways for conservation of waterbird populations.

Movement Ecology↗

Solar energy development selectively filters avian taxonomic and functional diversity across a perennial agricultural landscape

Solar energy is rapidly expanding across agricultural landscapes, yet its consequences for avian communities remain poorly understood, particularly among heterogeneous land-use matrices. In 2024 and 2025, we surveyed birds across 107 sites in New York State, including conventional solar arrays with mowing or sheep grazing to manage vegetation, solar-adjacent working lands (e.g. hayfields, pastures) and reference working lands independently located from solar arrays. We integrated diversity metrics across four trait dimensions—taxonomic, morphological, ecological and conservation status—and examined interactions between species-level abundance and traits to understand avian community responses to solar energy development. Avian species in solar sites tended to be common, non-migratory (in behaviour and wing morphology) and associated with shrubland or forest. Compared to reference working lands, bird communities in solar and solar-adjacent sites were less taxonomically diverse and were composed of fewer declining and range-restricted species. However, solar and solar-adjacent sites retained comparable diversity of intrinsic traits, suggesting that ecological function may persist despite apparent species filtering and functional reshuffling. While solar energy development can support avian communities with unique functional signatures, our findings suggest that conventional solar arrays sited on agricultural working lands in New York maintain low bird diversity and are unlikely to support conservation-priority species—such as grassland birds characterized by declining populations, migratory tendencies and open-habitat dependence. Synthesis and applications . Our study provides a pathway to leverage functional diversity to quantitatively characterize solar-associated avian communities and the ecological mechanisms that shape them. Our results suggest that meeting biodiversity conservation goals while achieving solar energy targets requires ecologically informed siting and processes, particularly across regions in which co-prioritization of conservation, agriculture and energy presents sustainability trade-offs.

New York↗

Genetic analyses reveal cryptic introgression in secretive marsh bird populations

Hybridization is common in bird populations but can be challenging for management, especially if one of the two parent species is of greater conservation concern than the other. King rails (Rallus elegans) and clapper rails (R. crepitans) are two marsh bird species with similar morphologies, behaviors, and overlapping distributions. The two species are found along a salinity gradient with the king rail in freshwater marshes and the clapper in estuarine marshes. However, this separation is not absolute; they are occasionally sympatric, and there are reports of interbreeding. In Virginia, USA, both king and clapper rails are identified by the state as Species of Greater Conservation Need, although clappers are thought to be more abundant and king rails have a higher priority ranking. We used a mitochondrial DNA marker and 13 diagnostic nuclear single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to identify species, classify the degree of introgression, and explore the evolutionary history of introgression in two putative clapper rail focal populations along a salinity gradient in coastal Virginia. Genetic analyses revealed cryptic introgression with site-specific rates of admixture. We identified a pattern of introgression where clapper rail alleles predominate in brackish marshes. These results suggest clapper rails may be displacing king rails in Virginia coastal waterways, most likely as a result of ecological selection. As introgression can result in various outcomes from outbreeding depression to local adaptation, continued monitoring of these populations would allow further exploration of hybrid fitness and inform conservation management.

Georgia, New Jersey, North Carolina, Rhode Island,↗

Introduced mammalian predators induce behavioural changes in parental care in an endemic New Zealand bird

The introduction of predatory mammals to oceanic islands has led to the extension of many birds. Although introduced predators should favour changes that reduce predation risk in surviving bird species, the ability of island birds to respond to such novel changes remains unstudied. We tested whether novel predation risk imposed by introduced mammalian predators has altered the parental behaviour of the endemic New Zealand bellbird (Anthomis melanura). We examined parental behaviour of billbnirds at three woodlands sites in New Zealand that differed in predation risk: 1) a mainland site with exotic predators present (high predation risk), 2) a mainland site with exotic predators experimentally removed (low risk recently) and, 3) an off-shore island where exotic predators were never introduced (low risk always). We also compared parental behavior of bellbirds with two closely related Tasmanian honeyeaters (Phylidonyris spp) that evolved with native nest predators (high risk always). Increased nest predation risk has been postulated to favour reduced parental activity, and we tested whether island bellbirds responded to variation in predation risk. We found that females spent more time on the nest per incubating bout with increased risk of predation, a strategy that minimised activity at the nest during incubation. Parental activity during the nestling period, measured as number of feeding visits/hr, also decreased with increasing nest predation risk across sites, and was lowest among the honeyeaters in Tasmania that evolved with native predators. These results demonstrates that some island birds are able to respond to increased risk of predation by novel predators in ways that appear adaptive. We suggest that conservation efforts may be more effective if they take advantage of the ability of island birds to respond to novel predators, especially when the elimination of exotic predators is not possible.

PLoS ONE↗

The effects of management practices on grassland birds — An introduction to North American grasslands and the practices used to manage grasslands and grassland birds

The Great Plains of North America is defined as the land mass that encompasses the entire central portion of the North American continent that, at the time of European settlement, was an unbroken expanse of primarily herbaceous vegetation. The Great Plains extend from central Saskatchewan and Alberta to central Mexico and from Indiana to the Rocky Mountains. The expanses of herbaceous vegetation are often referred to as native prairie or native grasslands. Native grasslands share the characteristics of a general uniformity in vegetation structure, dominance by grasses and forbs, a near absence of trees and shrubs, annual precipitation ranging from 25 to 100 centimeters, extreme intra-annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, and a flat to rolling topography over which fires can spread. To the west of the Great Plains lie the sagebrush communities of the Great Basin, which extend from British Columbia and Saskatchewan to northern Arizona and New Mexico and from the eastern slopes of the Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountain ranges to western South Dakota. Sagebrush communities share similar characteristics to native grasslands, but their location east of the Rocky Mountains creates a more moderating influence from prevailing westerly winds that affect timing of peak precipitation and growth form of dominant vegetation. Native grasslands and sagebrush communities harbor a diverse array of grassland, wetland, and woodland plant and animal communities that are uniquely adapted to the natural forces of the Great Plains and Great Basin, namely the interactive forces of climate, fire, and grazing. The arrival of European settlers to North America brought profound change to native grassland and sagebrush communities, including the establishment of permanent towns and cities, the proliferation of cropland-based agricultural systems, and the suppression of wildfires. The near extirpation of bison by the 1860s paved the way for dramatic changes in the dominant grazers and a shift in the disturbance patterns that historically influenced vegetation structure. The greatest threat to native grasslands and sagebrush communities in modern times is their loss due to conversion to rowcrop agriculture and to urbanization. Concomitant with habitat loss is a precipitous decline in populations of bird species that evolved with, and are uniquely adapted to, the native grassland and sagebrush habitats. Avian population trends are linked strongly to agricultural land use. Besides outright loss of suitable breeding habitat, agricultural practices affect birds through factors such as pesticide exposure, habitat fragmentation, shifts in predator community composition, and occurrence of brood parasites. Bird populations face other stressors, such as loss of habitat to and behavioral avoidance of urbanized areas, roads, and infrastructure associated with energy production. Despite the many anthropogenic changes to North American grassland and sagebrush communities, some bird species are adaptable and opportunistic in their habitat selection and now utilize one or more human-created habitats. Human-created habitats include pastures, hayfields, agricultural terraces, crop buffer strips, field borders, grassed waterways, fencerows, road rights-of-way, airports, reclaimed coal mines, and planted wildlife cover. Fields of seeded grasslands enrolled in Federal long-term set-aside programs, such as the Conservation Reserve Program in the United States and the Permanent Cover Program in Canada, provide important nesting habitat for grassland bird species. The array of habitats used by birds makes habitat and avian management a complex undertaking, and the scale (for example, local, regional, international) at which management actions can be implemented are such that a universal approach to managing grasslands for the conservation of the entire suite of bird species does not exist. Experienced land managers recognize that it is impossible to manage for all bird species simultaneously, and thus, prioritization is necessary towards those habitats or bird species that the manager or management agency ranks highest for a specific region or management unit. The primary tools available for management are burning, grazing, mowing, herbicide application, and idling, but before choosing a particular practice, a manager will want to consider issues of seasonality, intensity, and frequency. Despite the thousands of studies that are cited in this compendium, much remains unknown about the effects of management practices on bird species. The series of species accounts in this compendium review the current state of knowledge regarding management of grassland and sagebrush bird species and summarize information on the effects of management practices on individual species. The accounts do not give definitive statements on the effects of management practices for any particular species, primarily because there are very few replicated studies in which identical management practices have been applied in the same geographical area with consistent results, which are elements necessary to provide concrete recommendations for the management of a particular species in a particular area. Documentation of the effects of management treatments on individual species through statistically sound methods that incorporate multiple years and locations will further scientists’ and land managers’ knowledge far more than 1–2-year studies that are limited in scope as well as time, but studies of that scope and breadth are rare.

Professional Paper↗

The collective application of shorebird tracking data to conservation

Addressing urgent conservation issues, such as the drastic declines of North American migratory birds, requires creative, evidence-based, efficient, and collaborative approaches. The abundance of over 50% of monitored North American shorebird populations has declined by over 50% since 1980. To address these declines, we developed a partnership of scientists and practitioners called the Shorebird Science and Conservation Collective (hereafter the collective ). The collective was founded to translate the combined findings of shorebird tracking data into on-the-ground conservation action. With advice from an advisory group, the collective acts as an intermediary whereby dedicated staff collate and analyze data contributions from scientists to support knowledge requests from conservation practitioners. In its first three years, data contributions from 75 organizations include over 7.1 million shorebird observations forming movement paths of 3420 individuals representing 36 species tracked across the Americas and have informed 18 conservation projects spanning education, land and species management, land conservation, and policy requests. Others engaged in translational science from big data could consider similar knowledge-sharing models that prioritize usable data products, foster collaborative engagement between science experts and practitioners, build focused communities around topics or taxonomic groups, and employ a proof-of-concept phase to develop scalable solutions while making progress toward long-term funding to sustain impact. As the volume of scientific data continues to grow, intermediaries, such as the collective, can be vital liaisons to rapidly integrate and interpret research to support conservation action. Dedicated to the memory of Shiloh Schulte and his conservation achievements for shorebirds.

Conservation Biology↗

Prioritizing landscapes for longleaf pine conservation

We developed a spatially explicit model and map, as a decision support tool (DST), to aid conservation agencies creating or maintaining open pine ecosystems. The tool identified areas that are likely to provide the greatest benefit to focal bird populations based on a comprehensive landscape analysis. We used NLCD 2011, SSURGO, and SEGAP data to map the density of desired resources for open pine ecosystems and six focal species of birds and 2 reptiles within the historic range of longleaf pine east of the Mississippi River. Binary rasters were created of sites with desired characteristics such as land form, hydrology, land use and land cover, soils, potential habitat for focal species, and putative source populations of focal species. Each raster was smoothed using a kernel density estimator. Rasters were combined and scaled to map priority locations for the management of each focal species. Species’ rasters were combined and scaled to provide maps of overall priority for birds and for birds and reptiles. The spatial data can be used to identify high priority areas for conservation or to compare areas under consideration for maintenance or creation of open pine ecosystems.

Cooperator Science Series↗

Estimating apparent survival of songbirds crossing the Gulf of Mexico during autumn migration

Many migratory bird species are declining, and the migratory period may limit populations because of the risk in traversing large geographical features during passage. Using automated radio-telemetry, we tracked 139 Swainson's thrushes ( Catharus ustulatus ) departing coastal Alabama, USA and crossing the Gulf of Mexico to arrive in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico during autumn. We estimated apparent survival and examined how extrinsic (weather variables and day of year) and intrinsic (fat load, sex and age) factors influenced survival using a mark-recapture approach. We also examined how favourability of winds for crossing the Gulf varied over the past 25 years. Fat load, day of year and wind profit were important factors in predicting which individuals survived crossing the Gulf. Survival estimates varied with wind profit and fat, but generally, fat birds departing on days with favourable wind profits had an apparent survival probability of greater than 0.90, while lean individuals with no or negative wind profits had less than 0.33. The proportion of favourable nights varied within and among years, but has increased over the last 25 years. While conservation strategies cannot improve extrinsic factors, they can provide opportunities for birds to refuel before crossing large geographical features through protecting and creating high-quality stopover sites.

Gulf of Mexico↗

Multistate models for estimation of survival and reproduction in the Grey-headed Albatross ( Thalassarche chrysostoma )

Reliable information on demography is necessary for conservation of albatrosses, the most threatened family of pelagic birds. Albatross survival has been estimated using mark-recapture data and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model. However, albatross exhibit skipped breeding, violating assumptions of the CJS model. Multistate modeling integrating unobservable states is a promising tool for such situations. We applied multistate models to data on Grey-headed Albatross ( Talassarche chrysostoma ) to evaluate model performance and describe demographic patterns. These included a multistate equivalent of the CJS model (MS-2), including successful and failed breeding states and ignoring temporary emigration, and three versions of a four-state multistate model that accounts for temporary emigration by integrating unobservable states: a model (MS-4) with one sample per breeding season, a robust design model (RDMS-4) with multiple samples per season and geographic closure within the season, and an open robust design model (ORDMS-4) with multiple samples per season and staggered entry and exit of animals within the season. Survival estimates from the MS-2 model were higher than those from the MS-4 model, which resulted in apparent percent relative bias averaging 2.2%. The ORDMS-4 model was more appropriate than the RDMS-4 model, given that staggered entry and exit occurred. Annual survival probability for Greyheaded Albatross at Marion Island was 0.951 ± 0.006 (SE), and the probability of skipped breeding in a subsequent year averaged 0.938 for successful and 0.163 for failed breeders. We recommend that multistate models with unobservable states, combined with robust-design sampling, be used in studies of species that exhibit temporary emigration.

The Auk↗