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Liquefaction-induced lateral spreading in Oceano, California, during the 2003 San Simeon Earthquake

The December 22, 2003, San Simeon, California, (M6.5) earthquake caused damage to houses, road surfaces, and underground utilities in Oceano, California. The community of Oceano is approximately 50 miles (80 km) from the earthquake epicenter. Damage at this distance from a M6.5 earthquake is unusual. To understand the causes of this damage, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted extensive subsurface exploration and monitoring of aftershocks in the months after the earthquake. The investigation included 37 seismic cone penetration tests, 5 soil borings, and aftershock monitoring from January 28 to March 7, 2004. The USGS investigation identified two earthquake hazards in Oceano that explain the San Simeon earthquake damage?site amplification and liquefaction. Site amplification is a phenomenon observed in many earthquakes where the strength of the shaking increases abnormally in areas where the seismic-wave velocity of shallow geologic layers is low. As a result, earthquake shaking is felt more strongly than in surrounding areas without similar geologic conditions. Site amplification in Oceano is indicated by the physical properties of the geologic layers beneath Oceano and was confirmed by monitoring aftershocks. Liquefaction, which is also commonly observed during earthquakes, is a phenomenon where saturated sands lose their strength during an earthquake and become fluid-like and mobile. As a result, the ground may undergo large permanent displacements that can damage underground utilities and well-built surface structures. The type of displacement of major concern associated with liquefaction is lateral spreading because it involves displacement of large blocks of ground down gentle slopes or towards stream channels. The USGS investigation indicates that the shallow geologic units beneath Oceano are very susceptible to liquefaction. They include young sand dunes and clean sandy artificial fill that was used to bury and convert marshes into developable lots. Most of the 2003 damage was caused by lateral spreading in two separate areas, one near Norswing Drive and the other near Juanita Avenue. The areas coincided with areas with the highest liquefaction potential found in Oceano. Areas with site amplification conditions similar to those in Oceano are particularly vulnerable to earthquakes. Site amplification may cause shaking from distant earthquakes, which normally would not cause damage, to increase locally to damaging levels. The vulnerability in Oceano is compounded by the widespread distribution of highly liquefiable soils that will reliquefy when ground shaking is amplified as it was during the San Simeon earthquake. The experience in Oceano can be expected to repeat because the region has many active faults capable of generating large earthquakes. In addition, liquefaction and lateral spreading will be more extensive for moderate-size earthquakes that are closer to Oceano than was the 2003 San Simeon earthquake. Site amplification and liquefaction can be mitigated. Shaking is typically mitigated in California by adopting and enforcing up-to-date building codes. Although not a guarantee of safety, application of these codes ensures that the best practice is used in construction. Building codes, however, do not always require the upgrading of older structures to new code requirements. Consequently, many older structures may not be as resistant to earthquake shaking as new ones. For older structures, retrofitting is required to bring them up to code. Seismic provisions in codes also generally do not apply to nonstructural elements such as drywall, heating systems, and shelving. Frequently, nonstructural damage dominates the earthquake loss. Mitigation of potential liquefaction in Oceano presently is voluntary for existing buildings, but required by San Luis Obispo County for new construction. Multiple mitigation procedures are available to individual property owners. These procedures typically involve either

Open-File Report

Regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach to assess extreme flood potential

In the past decade, there has been a growing interest of dam safety officials to incorporate a risk‐based analysis for design‐flood hydrology. Extreme or rare floods, with probabilities in the range of about 10 −3 to 10 −7 chance of occurrence per year, are of continuing interest to the hydrologic and engineering communities for purposes of planning and design of structures such as dams [ National Research Council , 1988]. The National Research Council stresses that as much information as possible about floods needs to be used for evaluation of the risk and consequences of any decision. A regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach was developed to assist dam safety officials and floodplain managers in their assessments of the risk of large floods. The interdisciplinary components included documenting maximum paleofloods and a regional analyses of contemporary extreme rainfall and flood data to complement a site‐specific probable maximum precipitation study [ Tomlinson and Solak , 1997]. The cost‐effective approach, which can be used in many other hydrometeorologic settings, was applied to Elkhead Reservoir in Elkhead Creek (531 km 2 ) in northwestern Colorado; the regional study area was 10,900 km 2 . Paleoflood data using bouldery flood deposits and noninundation surfaces for 88 streams were used to document maximum flood discharges that have occurred during the Holocene. Several relative dating methods were used to determine the age of paleoflood deposits and noninundation surfaces. No evidence of substantial flooding was found in the study area. The maximum paleoflood of 135 m 3 s −1 for Elkhead Creek is about 13% of the site‐specific probable maximum flood of 1020 m 3 s −1 . Flood‐frequency relations using the expected moments algorithm, which better incorporates paleoflood data, were developed to assess the risk of extreme floods. Envelope curves encompassing maximum rainfall (181 sites) and floods (218 sites) were developed for northwestern Colorado to help define maximum contemporary and Holocene flooding in Elkhead Creek and in a regional frequency context. Study results for Elkhead Reservoir were accepted by the Colorado State Engineer for dam safety certification.

Water Resources Research

Monitoring of levees, bridges, pipelines, and other critical infrastructure during the 2011 flooding in the Mississippi River Basin

During the 2011 Mississippi River Basin flood, the U.S. Geological Survey evaluated aspects of critical river infrastructure at the request of and in support of local, State, and Federal Agencies. Geotechnical and hydrographic data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey at numerous locations were able to provide needed information about 2011 flood effects to those managing the critical infrastructure. These data were collected and processed in a short time frame to provide managers the ability to make a timely evaluation of the safety of the infrastructure and, when needed, to take action to secure and protect critical infrastructure. Critical infrastructure surveyed by the U.S. Geological Survey included levees, bridges, pipeline crossings, power plant intakes and outlets, and an electrical transmission tower. Capacitively coupled resistivity data collected along the flood-protection levees surrounding the Omaha Public Power District Nebraska City power plant (Missouri River Levee Unit R573), mapped the near-subsurface electrical properties of the levee and the materials immediately below it. The near-subsurface maps provided a better understanding of the levee construction and the nature of the lithology beneath the levee. Comparison of the capacitively coupled resistivity surveys and soil borings indicated that low-resistivity value material composing the levee generally is associated with lean clay and silt to about 2 to 4 meters below the surface, overlying a more resistive layer associated with sand deposits. In general, the resistivity structure becomes more resistive to the south and the southern survey sections correlate well with the borehole data that indicate thinner clay and silt at the surface and thicker sand sequences at depth in these sections. With the resistivity data Omaha Public Power District could focus monitoring efforts on areas with higher resistivity values (coarser-grained deposits or more loosely compacted section), which typically are more prone to erosion or scour. Data collected from multibeam echosounder hydrographic surveys at selected bridges aided State agencies in evaluating the structural integrity of the bridges during the flood, by assessing the amount of scour present around piers and abutments. Hydrographic surveys of the riverbed detected scour depths ranging from zero (no scour) to approximately 5.8 meters in some areas adjacent to North Dakota bridge piers, zero to approximately 6 meters near bridge piers in Nebraska, and zero to approximately 10.4 meters near bridge piers in Missouri. Substructural support elements of some bridge piers in North Dakota, Nebraska, and Missouri that usually are buried were exposed to moving water and sediment. At five Missouri bridge piers the depth of scour left less than 1.8 meters of bed material between the bottom of the scour hole and bedrock. State agencies used this information along with bridge design and construction information to determine if reported scour depths would have a substantial effect on the stability of the structure. Multibeam echosounder hydrographic surveys of the riverbed near pipeline crossings did not detect exposed pipelines. However, analysis of the USGS survey data by pipeline companies aided in their evaluation of pipeline safety and led one company to further investigate the safety of their line and assisted another company in getting one offline pipeline back into operation. Multibeam echosounder hydrographic surveys of the banks, riverbed, and underwater infrastructure at Omaha Public Power District power plants documented the bed and scour conditions. These datasets were used by Omaha Public Power District to evaluate the effects that the flood had on operation, specifically to evaluate if scour during the peak of the flood or sediment deposition during the flood recession would affect the water intake structures. Hydrographic surveys at an Omaha Public Power District electrical transmission tower documented scour so that they could evaluate the structural integrity of the tower as well as have the information needed to make proper repairs after flood waters receded.

Missouri River Basin, Mississippi River Basin

Updates to building-code maps for the 2015 NEHRP recommended seismic provisions

With the 2014 update of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) as a basis, the Building Seismic Safety Council (BSSC) has updated the earthquake ground motion maps in the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures , with partial funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Anticipated adoption of the updated maps into the American Society of Civil Engineers Minimum Design Loads for Building and Other Structures and the International Building and Residential Codes is underway. Relative to the ground motions in the prior edition of each of these documents, most of the updated values are within a ±20% change. The larger changes are, in most cases, due to the USGS NSHM updates, reasons for which are given in companion publications. In some cases, the larger changes are partly due to a BSSC update of the slope of the fragility curve that is used to calculate the risk-targeted ground motions, and/or the introduction by BSSC of a quantitative definition of “active faults” used to calculate deterministic ground motions.

Earthquake Spectra

Historical methane hydrate project review

In 1995, U.S. Geological Survey made the first systematic assessment of the volume of natural gas stored in the hydrate accumulations of the United States. That study, along with numerous other studies, has shown that the amount of gas stored as methane hydrates in the world greatly exceeds the volume of known conventional gas resources. However, gas hydrates represent both a scientific and technical challenge and much remains to be learned about their characteristics and occurrence in nature. Methane hydrate research in recent years has mostly focused on: (1) documenting the geologic parameters that control the occurrence and stability of gas hydrates in nature, (2) assessing the volume of natural gas stored within various gas hydrate accumulations, (3) analyzing the production response and characteristics of methane hydrates, (4) identifying and predicting natural and induced environmental and climate impacts of natural gas hydrates, and (5) analyzing the effects of methane hydrate on drilling safety. Methane hydrates are naturally occurring crystalline substances composed of water and gas, in which a solid water-­‐lattice holds gas molecules in a cage-­‐like structure. The gas and water becomes a solid under specific temperature and pressure conditions within the Earth, called the hydrate stability zone. Other factors that control the presence of methane hydrate in nature include the source of the gas included within the hydrates, the physical and chemical controls on the migration of gas with a sedimentary basin containing methane hydrates, the availability of the water also included in the hydrate structure, and the presence of a suitable host sediment or “reservoir”. The geologic controls on the occurrence of gas hydrates have become collectively known as the “methane hydrate petroleum system”, which has become the focus of numerous hydrate research programs. Recognizing the importance of methane hydrate research and the need for a coordinated effort, the U.S. Congress enacted Public Law 106-­‐193, the Methane Hydrate Research and Development Act of 2000. This Act called for the Secretary of Energy to begin a methane hydrate research and development program in consultation with other U.S. federal agencies. At the same time a new methane hydrate research program had been launched in Japan by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry to develop plans for a methane hydrate exploratory drilling project in the Nankai Trough. Since this early start we have seen other countries including India, China, Canada, and the Republic of Korea establish large gas hydrate research and development programs. These national led efforts have also included the investment in a long list of important scientific research drilling expeditions and production test studies that have provided a wealth of information on the occurrence of methane hydrate in nature. The most notable expeditions and projects have including the following: -­‐Ocean Drilling Program Leg 164 (1995) -­‐Japan Nankai Trough Project (1999-­‐2000) -­‐Ocean Drilling Program Leg 204 (2004) -­‐Japan Tokai-­‐oki to Kumano-­‐nada Project (2004) -­‐Gulf of Mexico JIP Leg I (2005) -­‐Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 311 (2005) -­‐Malaysia Gumusut-­‐Kakap Project (2006) -­‐India NGHP Expedition 01 (2006) -­‐China GMGS Expedition 01 (2007) -­‐Republic of Korea UBGH Expedition 01 (2007) -­‐Gulf of Mexico JIP Leg II (2009) -­‐Republic of Korea UBGH Expedition 02 (2010) -­‐MH-­‐21 Nankai Trough Pre-­‐Production Expedition (2012-­‐2013) -­‐Mallik Gas Hydrate Testing Projects (1998/2002/2007-­‐2008) -­‐Alaska Mount Elbert Stratigraphic Test Well (2007) -­‐Alaska Iġnik Sikumi Methane Hydrate Production Test Well (2011-­‐2012) Research coring and seismic programs carried out by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP), starting with the ODP Leg 164 drilling of the Blake Ridge in the Atlantic Ocean in 1995, have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the geologic controls on the formation, occurrence, and stability of gas hydrates in marine environments. For the most part methane hydrate research expeditions carried out by the ODP and IODP provided the foundation for our scientific understanding of gas hydrates. The methane hydrate research efforts under ODP-­‐IODP have mostly dealt with the assessment of the geologic controls on the occurrence of gas hydrate, with a specific goal to study the role methane hydrates may play in the global carbon cycle. Over the last 10 years, national led methane hydrate research programs, along with industry interest have led to the development and execution of major methane hydrate production field test programs. Two of the most important production field testing programs have been conducted at the Mallik site in the Mackenzie River Delta of Canada and in the Eileen methane hydrate accumulation on the North Slope of Alaska. Most recently we have also seen the completion of the world’s first marine methane hydrate production test in the Nankai Trough in the offshore of Japan. Industry interest in gas hydrates has also included important projects that have dealt with the assessment of geologic hazards associated with the presence of hydrates. The scientific drilling and associated coring, logging, and borehole monitoring technologies developed in the long list of methane hydrate related field studies are one of the most important developments and contributions associated with methane hydrate research and development activities. Methane hydrate drilling has been conducted from advanced scientific drilling platforms like the JOIDES Resolution and the D/V Chikyu, which feature highly advanced integrated core laboratories and borehole logging capabilities. Hydrate research drilling has also included the use of a wide array of industry, geotechnical and multi-­‐service ships. All of which have been effectively used to collect invaluable geologic and engineering data on the occurrence of methane hydrates throughout the world. Technologies designed specifically for the collection and analysis of undisturbed methane hydrate samples have included the development of a host of pressure core systems and associated specialty laboratory apparatus. The study and use of both wireline conveyed and logging-­‐while-­‐drilling technologies have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the in-­‐situ nature of hydrate-­‐bearing sediments. Recent developments in borehole instrumentation specifically designed to monitor changes associated with hydrates in nature through time or to evaluate the response of hydrate accumulations to production have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the complex nature and evolution of methane hydrate systems. Our understanding of how methane hydrates occur and behave in nature is still growing and evolving – we do not yet know if methane hydrates can be economically produced, nor do we know fully the role of hydrates as an agent of climate change or as a geologic hazard. But it is known for certain that scientific drilling has contributed greatly to our understanding of hydrates in nature and will continue to be a critical source of the information to advance our understanding of methane hydrates.

Report

Proposed multi-period response spectra and ground motion requirements of the 2020 Recommended Provisions and ASCE 7-22

This paper summarizes a comprehensive set of proposals to the Provisions Update Committee of the Building Seismic Safety Council that would incorporate multi-period response spectra (MPRS) in the 2020 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures (2020 NEHRP Provisions) and related proposals to the ASCE 7-22 Seismic Subcommittee of the American Society of Civil Engineers for incorporation of MPRS in the ASCE Standard, ASCE/SEI 7-22, Minimum Design Loads and Associated Criteria for Buildings and Other Structures (ASCE 7-22). Ultimately, the intent is that the proposed MPRS and related design requirements of ASCE 7-22 would be adopted, by reference, as part of the 2024 International Building Code.

Conference Paper

Procedures for developing multi-period response spectra at non-conterminous United States sites

This study complements proposals to the Provisions Update Committee of the Building Seismic Safety Council that would incorporate multi-period response spectra (MPRS) in the 2020 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures (2020 NEHRP Provisions) and related proposals to the ASCE 7-22 Seismic Subcommittee of the American Society of Civil Engineers for incorporation of MPRS in ASCE Standard, ASCE/SEI 7-22, Minimum Design Loads and Associated Criteria for Buildings and Other Structures (ASCE 7-22). Ultimately, the intent is that the proposed MPRS and related design requirements of ASCE 7-22 would be adopted, by reference, as part of the 2024 International Building Code. The technical basis and associated methods herein enable the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop MPRS for sites in non-conterminous U.S. regions for which seismic hazard analyses have not yet been updated by the USGS to fully define all 22 periods and eight site classes of interest in the MPRS related proposals for the 2020 NEHRP Provisions and ASCE 7-22. These regions include Alaska, Hawaii, Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and American Samoa. The methods developed can be used to derive MPRS using only the three currently available ground motion parameters S S , S 1 , and T L for all nonconterminous United States regions of interest. The methods include models that characterize generic shapes of Risk-Targeted Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE R ) ground motions as a function of these three parameters. For deriving MPRS that represent probabilistic MCE R ground motions, models are based on statistical analyses of large sample sets of probabilistic MCE R response spectra for Western United States (WUS) and Cascadia sites in California, Oregon, Washington (including Puget Sound), Idaho, and Nevada. For deriving MPRS that represent deterministic MCE R ground motions, models are based on sets of deterministic MCE R response spectra calculated using WUS shallow crustal ground motion models for earthquake magnitudes and shaking levels typical of sites governed by deterministic MCE R ground motions.

Alaska, American Samoa, Hawaii, Guam and the North

Applying radar technology to migratory bird conservation and management: Strengthening and expanding a collaborative

Executive Summary Understanding the factors affecting migratory bird and bat populations during all three phases of their life cycle—breeding, nonbreeding, and migration—is critical to species conservation planning. This includes the need for information about these species’ responses to natural challenges, as well as information about the effects of human activities and structures. Habitats and other resources critical to migrants during passage and stopover are being destroyed, degraded, and threatened by human activities. Birds and bats are also uniquely susceptible to human use of the airspace. Wind turbines, communication and power transmission towers, and other tall structures, known to cause bird and bat mortality, are being erected or proposed in increasing numbers across the country. In addition, the potential for bird/aircraft collisions poses human safety threats. Management and regulatory agencies, conservation organizations, and industry currently lack the information they need to meet their missions and statutory responsibilities. The biological data available from various radar technologies offer a unique opportunity to learn more about the spatiotemporal distribution patterns, flight characteristics, and habitat use of “aero-fauna.” Recognizing the opportunities presented by radar technologies, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), and university partners collaborated first on individual projects and then in a broader, informal “collaborative” to coordinate their radar-related research and work together to develop the suite of products needed for conservation of birds and bats. Having produced two summary documents (Sojda and others, 2005; Ruth and others, 2005), the next objective was to convene a workshop for researchers, management and regulatory agencies, and other interested parties. The focus of this initial workshop was on strengthening the existing USGS-USFWS-university partnership and expanding the “collaborative” to include new Federal agency partners. The subject matter was centered on discussing available technologies, appropriate applications, management-related needs, and ways to strengthen collaborative research and conservation efforts. The workshop opened with presentations about the history of the “radar collaborative,” a description of the workshop objectives and focuses, and a summary of resource management and regulatory needs. Scientific presentations describing current research projects or subjects followed, given by USGS scientists, as well as scientists from other Federal agencies, academia, conservation and ornithological organizations, and a private contracting firm. Presenters addressed a wide variety of management issues including siting of wind-power facilities, bird/aircraft collisions, effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita on bird migration, bird use of Conservation Reserve Program land, defining bird migration patterns at a broad regional scale, and associating migrant birds with their stopover habitats. Presentations described a variety of radar technologies including NEXRAD weather surveillance radar, modified mobile marine radar, military tracking radar, pencil beam radar, and dual polarization radar, as well as complementary techniques and analysis methods such as acoustic monitoring, thermal imaging, artificial intelligence, and individual-based modeling. Key issues, themes, and questions identified during the open discussions that followed fell into five main categories: (1) agency needs and challenges; (2) radar technology and applications—technical questions and issues; (3) tools and resources for managers and researchers; (4) standardization of protocols; and (5) collaborative opportunities. Participants identified the following management, regulatory, or business issues facing them which may be addressed with radar technologies: tall structures; wind turbines; identification and protection of key habitats; assessment of management activities; and bird/aircraft strikes. Participants frequently expressed the need for specific information about which radar technologies are best used for answering particular questions. User groups emphasized the importance of clear, defensible scientific information on which they can base their activities. In turn, researchers emphasized their need for clearly defined, specific questions from managers so that they can design and conduct the required research. Discussions about technical issues requiring further research and collaboration included target identity, ground-truthing, linking migrants to habitat, and standardized protocols for applied research. Workshop participants identified and endorsed a series of seven action items that would promote collaboration and begin to address key issues identified at the workshop: Action Item #1 : Establish a working subgroup to address large-scale surveillance radar standardization issues. Action Item #2 : Establish a working subgroup to address small-scale radar standardization issues. Action Item #3 : Bring management and regulatory agencies together to identify the three most important information needs for each key management issue relating to radar technologies. Action Item #4 : Develop Fact Sheet(s) to provide information about radar technology applications to migratory bird and bat conservation issues. Action Item #5 : Create a “radar collaborative” Website to provide information about radar biology applications, contacts, publications, and so forth. Action Item #6 : Formalize and expand the USGS-USFWS “radar collaborative.” Action Item #7 : Advance basic research, such as target identity and validation, which will support and improve our abilities to apply radar technologies to conservation objectives. There was considerable interest in expanding the “radar collaborative” to include those agencies, organizations, and industries represented at the workshop. It was felt that the publication of the workshop proceedings, implementation of action items, and additional future meetings or workshops will be crucial in strengthening the “radar collaborative” effort and promoting the use of these valuable technologies for conserving migratory species.

Open-File Report

Simulation of Water-Surface Elevations and Velocity Distributions at the U.S. Highway 13 Bridge over the Tar River at Greenville, North Carolina, Using One- and Two-Dimensional Steady-State Hydraulic Models

The use of one-dimensional hydraulic models currently is the standard method for estimating velocity fields through a bridge opening for scour computations and habitat assessment. Flood-flow contraction through bridge openings, however, is hydrodynamically two dimensional and often three dimensional. Although there is awareness of the utility of two-dimensional models to predict the complex hydraulic conditions at bridge structures, little guidance is available to indicate whether a one- or two-dimensional model will accurately estimate the hydraulic conditions at a bridge site. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Carolina Department of Transportation, initiated a study in 2004 to compare one- and two-dimensional model results with field measurements at complex riverine and tidal bridges in North Carolina to evaluate the ability of each model to represent field conditions. The field data consisted of discharge and depth-averaged velocity profiles measured with an acoustic Doppler current profiler and surveyed water-surface profiles for two high-flow conditions. For the initial study site (U.S. Highway 13 over the Tar River at Greenville, North Carolina), the water-surface elevations and velocity distributions simulated by the one- and two-dimensional models showed appreciable disparity in the highly sinuous reach upstream from the U.S. Highway 13 bridge. Based on the available data from U.S. Geological Survey streamgaging stations and acoustic Doppler current profiler velocity data, the two-dimensional model more accurately simulated the water-surface elevations and the velocity distributions in the study reach, and contracted-flow magnitudes and direction through the bridge opening. To further compare the results of the one- and two-dimensional models, estimated hydraulic parameters (flow depths, velocities, attack angles, blocked flow width) for measured high-flow conditions were used to predict scour depths at the U.S. Highway 13 bridge by using established methods. Comparisons of pier-scour estimates from both models indicated that the scour estimates from the two-dimensional model were as much as twice the depth of the estimates from the one-dimensional model. These results can be attributed to higher approach velocities and the appreciable flow angles at the piers simulated by the two-dimensional model and verified in the field. Computed flood-frequency estimates of the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year return-period floods on the Tar River at Greenville were also simulated with both the one- and two-dimensional models. The simulated water-surface profiles and velocity fields of the various return-period floods were used to compare the modeling approaches and provide information on what return-period discharges would result in road over-topping and(or) pressure flow. This information is essential in the design of new and replacement structures. The ability to accurately simulate water-surface elevations and velocity magnitudes and distributions at bridge crossings is essential in assuring that bridge plans balance public safety with the most cost-effective design. By compiling pertinent bridge-site characteristics and relating them to the results of several model-comparison studies, the framework for developing guidelines for selecting the most appropriate model for a given bridge site can be accomplished.

North Carolina

Relaxation response of critically stressed macroscale surficial rock sheets

Rock environments both underground and on Earth’s surface show indications of energetic macroscale fracture. In tunnels and excavations, these manifest as rockbursts—energetic explosions of rock that can damage engineering projects, and may pose ongoing financial and safety risk as rock stresses adjust during post-failure relaxation. In natural settings at the surface, evidence for rockbursts exist in the form of tent-like structures of ruptured exfoliation sheets, but few direct observations of such events exist, precluding the analysis of how natural rock formations may evolve after rupture. Here we investigate the post-failure evolution of a granitic rock dome following rapid fracture events (i.e., surficial rockbursts) that occurred in California, USA during 2014–2016. Building upon previous work that showed a thermal stress origin for the observed fracturing, we investigate the return to background stress conditions (i.e., stress relaxation) observed in both short- (week, month) and long-term (multi-year) rock deformation trends. Acoustic emissions, deformation, and environmental monitoring data indicate that partially detached rock sheets forming the surface of the dome undergo fracture aperture closing during cooling periods, concurrent with reduction of rock stress by the source of forcing (i.e., thermal stress). However, with sufficient critical and/or subcritical fracture, our observations also show that rock sheets can become decoupled from the source of stress, resulting in a long-term return to background stress conditions. Our results provide insight into the cyclic and likely ephemeral nature of rock fracture in surficial rock domes, as well as in underground rockburst environments.

Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering

K-12 trade books’ representation of earthquake safety and protective actions: A content analysis

Meaningful learning resources for earthquake safety and survival have become an increasingly important topic among geoscientists, especially educators and researchers. Various members of the public, especially K-12 (ages 5–18) learners, continue to depend on scientific trade books available at their local public and school libraries for information about earthquake concepts. To our knowledge, no research has empirically examined how trade books represent earthquake safety and survival actions. In this research, we combine an iterative qualitative inductive and deductive analysis to explore the representation of earthquake safety and protective actions in 50 trade books. We categorize these actions into time-based practices related to preparedness before an earthquake, protective actions during an earthquake, and recovery after an earthquake. These trade books emphasize preparedness by means of building earthquake-resistant structures and urban planning, and efforts toward community resilience and keeping home supplies. The recommended personal protective action during an earthquake in the United States (“Drop, Cover, and Hold On”) is emphasized in the majority of the trade books, as well as other protective actions related to emotional actions and current technological automated actions such as earthquake early warning systems. Finally, the books highlight actions such as damage evaluation and support as ways to recover after an earthquake. Our findings highlight the issues between accepted earthquake safety and survival actions and the limited and/or inaccurate knowledge represented in some trade books. We provide interpretations of how presentation of limited or inaccurate information may increase confusion about appropriate protective actions. The inclusion of accepted and recommended protective actions in future trade books and the use of earthquake drills in public libraries as a supplement for trade book users may improve understanding and implementation of appropriate actions. We further demonstrate the potential of trade book contents in fostering earthquake education through library-community partnerships.

Journal of Geoscience Education

Post-earthquake building safety assessments for the Canterbury Earthquakes

This paper explores the post-earthquake building assessment program that was utilized in Christchurch, New Zealand following the Canterbury Sequence of earthquakes beginning with the Magnitude (M w .) 7.1 Darfield event in September 2010. The aftershocks or triggered events, two of which exceeded M w 6.0, continued with events in February and June 2011 causing the greatest amount of damage. More than 70,000 building safety assessments were completed following the February event. The timeline and assessment procedures will be discussed including the use of rapid response teams, selection of indicator buildings to monitor damage following aftershocks, risk assessments for demolition of red-tagged buildings, the use of task forces to address management of the heavily damaged downtown area and the process of demolition. Through the post-event safety assessment program that occurred throughout the Canterbury Sequence of earthquakes, many important lessons can be learned that will benefit future response to natural hazards that have potential to damage structures.

Conference Paper

Methods for noninvasive bathymetric and velocity surveys for impoundment safety--A case study of Herrington Lake at Dix Dam near Burgin, Kentucky

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) created bathymetric-contour and water-velocity vector maps for portions of Lake Herrington within 600 feet of the face of Dix Dam near Burgin, Kentucky. The mapping was in support of a study of noninvasive acoustic technology for assessing structural integrity of dams, both as a routine inspection tool or as an emergency tool during hydrologic events, such as high water or flooding. In April 2010, scientists from the USGS used a boat-mounted transducer and echo sounder to obtain bathymetric data to characterize lakebed relief and sediment distribution under a closed-intake condition. Also in April 2010, an acoustic Doppler current profiler was employed to measure water velocity and flow direction in the lake to locate velocities moving toward the dam face and, possibly, dam leakage. The bathymetric survey showed the present condition of fill in the reservoir since the dam was completed, as well as provided an outline of the lake floor. The velocity survey indicated no discernible flow pattern or direction within the study area; only one transect had shown a difference from the others that was noticeable. The noninvasive acoustic bathymetric and velocity surveys used during the case study showed promise in locating potential dam or intake maintenance areas. Additional case studies throughout the Nation are needed to more clearly define whether the methods for noninvasive bathymetric and velocity surveys for dam safety will be successful in a variety of settings.

Kentucky

Spatial extent of forested avalanche terrain impacted by wildfire across the Sawtooth National Forest

Forest structure is a major driver of mountain snowpacks and avalanche occurrence. Healthy forests can reduce the incidence of dangerous slab avalanches, slow avalanches when in motion, shorten their runout distances, and act as a safety buffer for backcountry users, infrastructure, and transportation corridors. Since 1984, wildfire area in the seasonal snow zone of the western United States has increased by 70% throughout the seasonal snow zone, creating significant changes to avalanche prone mountains and their connected communities. A major unknown is the impact a reduction of forested area due to forest fires will have on avalanche occurrence. We hypothesize increased potential for avalanching in forested areas impacted by wildfire. Reduced tree cover may make previously heavily forested terrain more susceptible to avalanching. Increases in the size of avalanche start zones, paths, and runouts due to forest fires may increase the destructive size of avalanches and create cascading ecological effects within the adjacent forested terrain. Forest fires may therefore increase the likelihood of avalanche release, resulting in further loss of tree cover and increased avalanche area as well as decreased protection for human infrastructure. In this study, we quantify avalanche area changes before and after the Ross Fork wildfire (2022) in Sawtooth National Forest, Idaho, USA. We utilized satellite imagery, a digital elevation model and historical fire spatial data to quantify and characterize avalanche area changes within the fire perimeter using the Auto-ATES workflow (Sykes et al., 2022). We found decreases in forest coverage that contributed to widespread increases in potential avalanche release areas, avalanche tracks, and potential runout zones throughout the study area as well as the creation of new potential avalanche release areas and a substantial decrease in non-avalanche connected terrain within the fire perimeter. These preliminary findings help inform avalanche and snow safety professionals as well as land managers working in wildfire-prone forested areas about potential post-wildfire changes in avalanche terrain.

Idaho

Toxicity of 6PPD alternatives to salmonid cell lines

Stormwater runoff in urban areas introduces numerous anthropogenic chemicals into surrounding aquatic environments. One such chemical is 6PPD ( N -(1,3-Dimethylbutyl)- N ’-phenyl- p- phenylenediamine), the primary antidegradant responsible for protecting tire rubber from ozone-induced degradation and cracking. When exposed to ozone on the road surface 6PPD is transformed into the toxic transformation product 6PPD-quinone (6PPDQ). This compound is highly lethal to coho salmon ( O ncorhynchus kisutch ), and 24 hour 50% lethal concentrations (LC 50 ; 41-95 ng/L) are frequently detected in urban streams during stormwater runoff events 1-5 . The highest stream concentrations of 6PPDQ and most extensive coho salmon mortality occur in high-traffic urban areas, where tire wear particles accumulate due to the frequent braking and acceleration of cars 6 . In the Seattle area, some coho salmon-bearing streams can lose over 90% of returning females prior to spawning due to 6PPDQ-containing runoff 7 . Prespawn loss of this magnitude could result in the extinction of some urban spawning populations 8 . Importantly, the lethal effects of 6PPDQ have been observed in several other salmonid species, indicating that its impact may threaten fish health for urban aquatic environments globally 9-11 . The ubiquity of 6PPD in automobile tires, high toxicity of the transformation product 6PPDQ, and prevalence of 6PPD and 6PPDQ in environmental matrices has spurred investigations into alternative rubber antiozonants to replace 6PPD that retain tire performance while reducing ecological harm. A technical memorandum provided to the legislature by the Washington State Department of Ecology summarized a list of potential 6PPD alternatives requiring further study, including several structurally similar p-phenylenediamines (PPDs) 12 . However, the structural similarity of other PPDs to 6PPD and their known production of quinone transformation products 13 raises concerns that they may elicit similar toxic effects as 6PPDQ. Currently, investigations into the toxicity of proposed PPD alternatives or their ozonated transformation products in coho salmon are limited, representing a significant data gap in evaluating whether they offer improved environmental safety over 6PPD. This project investigated the toxicity of proposed alternative rubber antiozonants in vitro using immortalized cell lines derived from three salmonid species with known differences in sensitivity to 6PPDQ (coho salmon, Chinook salmon ( O. tshawytscha ), rainbow trout ( O. mykiss )) 1 . These immortalized cell lines replicate toxic responses observed in in vivo studies, while enabling higher-throughput testing and reducing the need for animal use and other resource-intensive procedures. The antiozonants and their transformation products selected for testing were chosen based on multiple criteria, including their inclusion in the Ecology technical memorandum, structural substitutions (e.g., branched/cyclic alkyl vs aryl substitutions), commercial availability, and input from the Washington State Department of Ecology and other industry experts.

Report

Evaluation of the flood hydrology in the Colorado Front Range using precipitation, streamflow, and paleoflood data for the Big Thompson River basin

A multidisciplinary study of precipitation and streamflow data and paleohydrologic studies of channel features was made to analyze the flood hydrology of foothill and mountain streams in the Front Range of Colorado, with emphasis on the Big Thompson River basin, because conventional hydrologic analyses do not adequately characterize the flood hydrology. In the foothills of Colorado, annual floodflows are derived from snowmelt at high elevations in the mountain regions, from rainfall at low elevation in the plains or plateau regions, or from a combination of rain falling on snow or mixed population hydrology. Above approximately 7,500 ft, snowmelt dominates; rain does not contribute to the flood potential. Regional flood-frequency relations were developed and compared with conventional flood-estimating technique results, including an evaluation of the magnitude and frequency of the probable maximum flood. Evaluation of streamflow data and paleoflood investigations provide an alternative for evaluating flood hydrology and the safety of dams. The study indicates the need for additional data collection and research to understand the complexities of the flood hydrology in mountainous regions, especially its effects on flood-plain management and the design of structures in the flood plain. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Surface fire to Crown Fire: Fire history in the Taos Valley watersheds, New Mexico, USA

Tree-ring fire scars, tree ages, historical photographs, and historical surveys indicate that, for centuries, fire played different ecological roles across gradients of elevation, forest, and fire regimes in the Taos Valley Watersheds. Historical fire regimes collapsed across the three watersheds by 1899, leaving all sites without fire for at least 119 years. Historical photographs and quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) ages indicate that a high-severity fire historically burned at multiple high-elevation subalpine plots in today’s Village of Taos Ski Valley, with large high-severity patches (>640 ha). Low-severity, frequent (9–29-year median interval) surface fires burned on the south aspects in nearby lower elevation dry conifer forests in all watersheds. Fires were associated with drought during the fire year. Widespread fires commonly burned synchronously in multiple watersheds during more severe drought years, preceded by wet years, including fire in all three watersheds in 1664, 1715, and 1842. In contrast, recent local “large” wildfires have only burned within single watersheds and may not be considered large in a historical context. Management to promote repeated low-severity fires and the associated open stand structures is within the historical range of variability in the dry conifer forests of these watersheds. In the high-elevation, subalpine forests, different management approaches are needed, which balance ecological and socioeconomic values while providing public safety.

New Mexico

The USGS role in mapping the nation's submerged lands

The seabed provides habitat for a diverse marine life having commercial, recreational, and intrinsic value. The habitat value of the seabed is largely a function of the geological structure and related geological, biological, oceanologic, and geochemical processes. Of equal importance, the nation's submerged lands contain energy and mineral resources and are utilized for the siting of offshore infrastructure and waste disposal. Seabed character and processes influence the safety and viability of offshore operations. Seabed and subseabed characterization is a prerequisite for the assessment, protection, and utilization of both living and non-living marine resources. A comprehensive program to characterize and understand the nation's submerged lands requires scientific expertise in the fields of geology, biology, hydrography, and oceanography. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has long experience as the Federal agency charged with conducting geologic research and mapping in both coastal and offshore regions. The USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program (CMGP) leads the nation in expertise related to characterization of seabed and subseabed geology, geological processes, seabed dynamics, and (in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and international partners) habitat geoscience. Numerous USGS studies show that sea-floor geology and processes determine the character and distribution of biological habitats, control coastal evolution, influence the coastal response to storm events and human alterations, and determine the occurrence and concentration of natural resources.

Fact Sheet