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307 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2024

How does the onset of offset influence geologic slip rates?

Geologic slip rates are typically based on the displacement accrued by a geomorphic or stratigraphic feature and the age of the offset feature. Because slip rates are commonly calculated by dividing the displacement of a faulted marker by its age, they contain two open time intervals: the elapsed time between the age of an offset feature and the age of the earthquake that displaced the feature, and the time between the present‐day and the most recent earthquake. Here, we explore the influence of including unconstrained open intervals in geologic slip rate calculations. We test the degree to which these open intervals affect geologic slip rates and their uncertainties, and we find that their influence depends primarily on mean earthquake recurrence intervals (RIs). Slip rates on faults with longer RIs, such as the Wasatch fault, can be greatly influenced by an increase of up to 20% when accounting for open intervals. In contrast, slip rates on faults with shorter RIs, such as the San Andreas fault, are only slightly influenced by the assumption that slip rates calculated over open intervals approximate those calculated over closed intervals. Our analyses indicate that faults with moderate slip rates (∼0.2–5 mm/yr) are sensitive to both open interval effects themselves, as well as methods to quantify and account for these effects. We re‐evaluate how slip rates are calculated and defined in displacement–time space using published deformation records. We explore the utility of assigning a probability distribution to the initiation of offset of the oldest faulted feature and the timing of the most recent earthquake (MRE). We find that calculating geologic slip rates without using probability distributions that capture the timing of the MRE and the onset of offset of the oldest faulted feature, especially on slow‐to‐moderate slip rate faults, can lead to systematic underestimation of average geologic slip rates.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2025

A newly identified creeping strand of the Concord fault, San Francisco Bay Area

The Concord fault constitutes a major branch of the Pacific–North America transform plate boundary in Northern California, bridging the strike‐slip Bartlett Springs ‐ Green Valley Fault system to the north with the Greenville and Calaveras Faults to the south. Like many faults in the San Francisco Bay Area its long‐term slip is partially accommodated by aseismic slip (creep). Although creep has been recognized and monitored on the northern half of the fault for decades, the precise location of the southern half of the fault and its slip rate—whether accommodated seismically or aseismically—has remained enigmatic. How slip transfers between the Concord and Greenville or Calaveras faults to the south remains an outstanding question. New field observations presented here indicate that the active trace of the fault south of downtown Concord is not where previously interpreted and is indeed actively creeping. We report observations of shallow creep continuing >7 km farther south along the Concord fault than previously reported, along a fault strand not previously recognized for most of its length. This is evident as right‐laterally deflected concrete curbs and sidewalk slabs on both sides of every street that crosses the fault at a high angle in southeast Concord and northeast Walnut Creek. We document the magnitude and location of these deflections to estimate accumulated right‐lateral aseismic slip expressed in engineered structures. Offsets of these piercing lines range from 8 to 18 cm, over widths varying from narrow breaks along centimeter‐scale concrete joints to 10‐m‐wide zones of deflection. Significantly, this active trace is ∼400 m west of where the Quaternary active trace has previously been inferred, placing it within—rather than bounding—the built area of suburban Concord. Slip along the fault has already caused infrastructure damage. These results revise our understanding of the southern Concord fault and help constrain its seismic potential.

California↗
USGS2025

SURF: An automated method for building nonplanar 3D fault models from earthquake hypocenters

Accurately characterizing 3D fault geometry is vital for improving our understanding of earthquake behavior and informing the development of seismic hazard models. Despite their importance, subsurface fault structures tend to be poorly constrained because of limitations in observational data. Improvements to the seismic networks and earthquake detection algorithms have increased the precision and volume of earthquake catalogs, which help illuminate detailed subsurface fault structure and provide the most direct information available about fault geometries at depth. We present a Python package to automate generating 3D fault geometries directly from hypocentral seismicity patterns. This method begins with clustering events based on their spatial density, identifying coherent patterns. Nearby clusters are then merged based on the similarity of their orientations. We fit nonplanar surfaces using support vector regression to balance surface accuracy with minimal deviations from planarity. The fault models are output as quadrilateral meshes at user‐defined resolution. In the process of generating the 3D fault surfaces, we compute the spatial density of seismicity around the surface and the planarity as quantitative metrics of the model outputs. As a proof of concept, we apply this approach to the San Andreas–Calaveras fault junction region and the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, both in California, which contain complex subparallel faults well defined at the Earth’s surface and abundant microseismicity. These case studies demonstrate the method’s ability to model complex fault structures, including long continuous fault surfaces, crossing faults, variably dipping segments, and subparallel faults. We test the method on both standard network catalogs and double‐difference relocated catalogs. We find that our seismicity‐based fault model results align with published 3D models that incorporate additional constraints and interpretations ( Plesch et al. , 2020 ; Aagaard and Hirakawa, 2021 ). This workflow provides a low‐user‐input solution for estimating fault geometries at depth from earthquake catalogs.

California↗
USGS2025

Deterministic physics-based earthquake sequence simulators match empirical ground-motion models and enable extrapolation to data poor regimes: Application to multifault multimechanism ruptures

We use the deterministic earthquake simulator RSQSim to generate complex sequences of ruptures on fault systems used for hazard assessment. We show that the source motions combined with a wave propagation code create surface ground motions that fall within the range of epistemic uncertainties for the Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 set of empirical models. We show the model is well calibrated where there are good data constraints, and has good correspondence in regions with fewer data constraints. We show magnitude, distance, and mechanism dependence all arising naturally from the same underlying friction. The deterministic physics‐based approach provides an opportunity for better understanding the physical origins of ground motions. For example, we find that reduced stress drops in shallow layers relative to constant stress drop with depth lead to peak ground velocities in the near field that better match empirical models. The simulators may also provide better extrapolations into regimes that are poorly empirically constrained by data because physics, rather than surface shaking data parameterizations, is underlying the extrapolations. Having shown the model is credible, we apply it to a problem where observations are lacking. We examine the case of crustal faults above a shallow subduction interface seen to break coseismically in simulations of the New Zealand fault system. These types of events were left out of consideration in the most recent New Zealand national seismic hazard model due to the modeling complexity and lack of observational data to constrain ground‐motion models (GMMs). Here, we show that in the model, by breaking up the coseismic crustal and interface rupturing fault motions into two separate subevents, and then recombining the resulting ground‐motion measures in a square‐root‐of‐sum‐of‐squares incoherent manner, we reproduce well the ground‐motion measures from the full event rupture. This provides a new method for extrapolating GMMs to more complex multifault ruptures.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2025

The GorDAS Distributed Acoustic Sensing experiment above the Cascadia locked zone and subducted Gorda Slab

The southernmost portion of the Cascadia Subduction zone in Northern California produces high rates of moderate and large earthquakes owing to subduction of the Gorda slab and deformation associated with the Mendocino Triple Junction. Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is rapidly advancing as a method for detecting earthquakes and imaging crustal structure. We have begun a long-term DAS monitoring experiment on buried telecom fiber in Arcata, California, with the goal of increasing the available recordings of moderate to large earthquakes as well as imaging seismogenic structures. We have recorded over a year's worth of data, including most aftershocks of the 2022 M w 6.4 Ferndale earthquake, though not the mainshock itself. The dataset includes numerous magnitude 3.5 and larger earthquakes including the 2023/01/01 M w 5.4 Rio Dell earthquake. Here we present initial results comparing an earthquake detection algorithm, run in real-time on the processing unit of the interrogator system, with both the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system as well as a post-processed earthquake catalog developed with deep-learning phase-picker algorithms. The rapid onboard processing of the detector demonstrates the potential utility of DAS-based edge computing for earthquake early warning. We also verify the quality of the strain waveforms both in terms of peak amplitudes and waveform similarity using about five months of nodal seismometer data. These instruments were deployed roughly every 300 m along the ~15km long cable and validate large variations in peak strain over short distances that are seen in the DAS data. All data from time windows surrounding both the local and teleseismic earthquakes are publicly available, which will improve our understanding of both the performance of DAS systems in moderate earthquakes and earthquake hazards associated with the Gorda subduction zone.

California↗
USGS2026

A ground-motion model derived using a generalized mean rupture distance for large slab interface earthquakes

Source–station distance is a central input to ground‐motion models (GMMs) for predicting seismic shaking. GMM development uses distance metrics including the Joyner–Boore distance, which is the shortest distance from an observation point to the surface projection of the earthquake rupture, and R rup the shortest distance to the rupture in three dimensions. Thompson and Baltay (2018) proposed the generalized mean rupture distance R p to address observed near‐fault ground‐motion saturation. R p accounts for the contribution to the shaking of all parts of the rupture and provides a simple method for incorporating spatially variable slip. They used R p to develop a GMM for shallow crustal earthquakes, assuming uniform slip. Here, we investigate the improvement offered by an R p ‐based GMM for large subduction interface earthquakes by recalibrating the path term for a published GMM ( Parker et al. , 2022 ) using R p derived from distributed slip models (DSMs). Inspection of within‐event and total residuals indicates that the recalibrated model fits the data at least as well as an alternative in which the path term was recalibrated using R rup and the same dataset. Incorporating slip information in its entirety or trimming the DSM geometry is preferable to assuming uniform moment release on a prescribed model fault that extends beyond the actual ruptured area. R p tuned to minimize model uncertainty is closer to the maximum distance to rupture for peak ground velocity (PGV) than acceleration, possibly reflecting the contribution to high‐frequency shaking of slip on local asperities. However, when the moment is concentrated far from stations, PGV is fit adequately with R p closer to R rup ⁠ . Our results suggest incorporating slip‐derived moment release through R p could improve GMMs for slab interface events, especially if the implementation of R p ‐based models is refined using a larger dataset of earthquakes with greater geographic diversity to account for regional ground‐motion variations.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2026

Ground-motion simulations for the 2024 Mw 4.8 Tewksbury, New Jersey, earthquake

Ground-motion simulations of notable earthquakes in the central and eastern United States are limited and typically assume one-dimensional (1D) Earth structure. In this study, we use a three-dimensional (3D) seismic velocity model to better constrain the depth and focal mechanism of the April 5th, 2024, moment magnitude 4.8 Tewksbury earthquake and investigate the spatial variability of earthquake ground motions and the effects of nearby sedimentary basins. We perform earthquake ground-motion simulations up to 0.5 Hz using the 3D spectral-element wave-propagation solver SPECFEM3D over a region 280-km wide by 260-km long by 77-km deep. Topography and subsurface geophysical structure are assigned using the U.S. Geological Survey National Crustal Model with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 200 m/s. We use earthquake time series from 13 broadband seismic stations in the region that have a uniform azimuthal distribution and epicentral distances ranging from 76 to 131 km to compare with synthetics and explore the effects of 1D versus 3D seismic structure on focal mechanism and depth solutions. Ground-motion intensity metrics are also presented relative to the NGA-East ground-motion models (GMMs) currently used in seismic hazard assessments for the region. We find that the 3D model, which reveals a wide spatial variability of period-dependent ground motions, yields better predictions of earthquake ground motions relative to the 1D model and the NGA-East ergodic ground-motion model, with 76 percent reduction of residual variance in observed ground motions averaged over 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-second periods. Use of the 3D model to solve for a focal mechanism yields a shallower focal depth at 4 km and a shallower east-dipping focal plane relative to the U.S. Geological Survey regional moment tensor and Global Centroid Moment Tensor. Our study demonstrates that use of 3D seismic velocity models can improve estimates of earthquake focal mechanisms, ground motions, and seismic hazard.

New Jersey↗
USGS2024

Evidence for low effective stress within the crust of the subducted Gorda plate from the 2022 December Mw 6.4 Ferndale earthquake sequence

Stress levels on and adjacent to megathrust faults at seismogenic depths remain a key but difficult to constrain parameter for assessing seismic hazard in subduction zones. Although strong ground motions have been observed to be generated from distinct, high-stress regions on the downdip end of the megathrust rupture areas in many great earthquakes, we lack direct constraints on the stress level in the lower seismogenic portion of the Cascadia megathrust. On 2022 December 20, a M w 6.4 strike-slip earthquake occurred near Ferndale, California in southern Cascadia and likely ruptured the Gorda slab crust in the lower seismogenic portion, providing an opportunity to assess the stress level in this region. Here, we relocate the Ferndale mainshock and the first two weeks of aftershocks using a high-resolution 3-D velocity model and estimate rupture dimensions, directivity, and stress drop for several M w 4-5 aftershocks and recent earthquakes. The aftershocks define a strike-slip fault in the slab crust striking ENE, consistent with the mainshock focal mechanism. The orientation of this fault is about 45 ° off the ideally oriented fault plane given the stress state in the slab. The aftershock zone is extensive and broad in the forward direction of the mainshock rupture but still constrained within the volume of high Vp/Vs within the slab crust. Our stress drop estimates are generally lower for M w 4-5 earthquakes located within the slab crust compared to those a few km deeper in the slab mantle. Combined, our results support a relatively low effective stress level in the vicinity of the megathrust in the lower portion of the seismogenic zone in southern Cascadia, likely due to elevated fluid pressures. Consequently, the ground motion in the onshore region above this low-stress seismogenic portion in southern Cascadia may not be as intense as that observed during great earthquakes in other subduction zones.

California↗
USGS2026

Distributed faulting of the northern West Napa Fault Zone in Napa Valley, California

Mapped surface ruptures from the 24 August 2014 M w 6.0 South Napa earthquake in the Napa Valley, California, show a 2‐km‐wide zone of distributed faulting in the southern and central West Napa fault zone (WNFZ). In the northern WNFZ at Hendry Winery (HW), however, the mapped 2014 surface ruptures encompass an ∼100‐m‐wide zone, implying significant narrowing of the near‐surface fault zone to the north. We present a tomographic shear‐wave velocity ( ⁠⁠ V S ) model and guided‐wave data that indicate the northern WNFZ is at least 400‐m wide, with multiple near‐surface fault traces. Our V S model shows that the 2014 surface ruptures are underlain by discrete low‐velocity zones (LVZs), and coincident guided‐wave data show that the LVZs carry fault‐zone guided waves. If nearby (<500 m) mapped faults to the east of HW are part of the WNFZ, the entire WNFZ is more than 1 km wide in the northern Napa Valley. WNFZ guided waves travel up to 38% slower than S body waves, and low‐strain guided‐wave shaking is up to five times stronger than the associated body‐wave shaking. Our data suggest that guided waves, traveling along distributed faults, may result in an increased shaking hazard over a 1‐km‐wide area of the northern Napa Valley during future significant earthquakes. In places, the 2014 surface ruptures were difficult to find one year after the earthquake, and paleoseismic trenching showed only weak evidence for faulting, which may not have been identified in trenches if the locations of the 2014 surface ruptures had not been previously mapped ( Prentice et al. , 2015 ). Guided‐wave and V S tomography data, however, show strong evidence for faulting beneath the 2014 surface ruptures and at locations to the east. Although paleoseismic trenching is the gold standard for identifying near‐surface faulting, methods such as peak ground velocities of guided waves may better identify immature near‐surface fault traces.

California↗
USGS2024

Geologic input databases for the 2025 Puerto Rico – U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model update: Crustal faults component

The last National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) was published in 2003. In advance of the 2025 PRVI NSHM update, we created three geologic input databases to summarize new onshore and offshore fault source information in the northern Caribbean region between 62°–70° W and 16°–21° N. These databases, of fault sections, fault‐zone polygons, and geologic estimates of fault activity (fault‐slip rate and earthquake recurrence intervals) at specific sites, document updates to fault parameters used in prior seismic hazard models in PRVI. Fault sources were reviewed from published studies since 2003, which document substantial changes to the understanding of fault location, geometry, or activity. New fault section sources were added for features that meet the criteria of (1) length ≥7 km, (2) unequivocal evidence of recurrent tectonic Quaternary activity, and (3) documentation that is publicly available in a peer‐reviewed source. In addition, we revised several broad areal sources, such as the Mona and Anegada extensional zones. The 2003 model included three fault sections and two fault‐zone polygons (areal sources). These databases include 35 fault sections, 6 fault‐zone polygons, and 51 earthquake geology sites. To characterize fault activity rates, slip‐rate bins were assigned based on landscape expression and paleoseismic trench observations for faults without published slip‐rate sites. Additional fault sources were evaluated but not included in these databases due to a lack of published information about fault location, geometry, or recurrent Quaternary activity. The PRVI NSHM 2025 geologic input databases describe crustal faulting; the geometries and coupling of Puerto Rico subduction zone and Muertos Trough models are considered in a separate database. Updates to the fault sections, fault‐zone polygons, and earthquake geology databases can help inform the location and recurrence rate of damaging earthquakes in the PRVI NSHM implementation.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗
USGS2026

Surface rupture and slip distribution of the 2025 Mw7.7 Mandalay earthquake and updated length scaling of supershear earthquakes

The 2025 M w 7.7 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar), earthquake ruptured 475 km of the central Sagaing fault and is the longest continental strike-slip rupture on record. The observed rupture length is 1.6–4.7 times the value expected (100–300 km) from existing length-magnitude scaling relations for strike-slip earthquakes. The earthquake resulted from shallow dextral faulting and ruptured bilaterally with supershear speeds south of the epicenter, rupturing close to three major cities in Myanmar and exposing over six million people to violent or extreme shaking. We report on the surface rupture character, length, and slip distribution based on sub-pixel correlation of Sentinel-2 (10 m) and Planet Dove (3 m) optical images and visual analysis of SkySat and WorldView (0.3–0.5 m) optical images. The earthquake had moderate surface slip (average = 3.3 m, maximum = 5.6 m, 25–75% range = 3.0–4.0 m), narrow deformation zone width (1–10 pixels in sub-pixel correlation and up to 190 meters for the detailed surface rupture mapping), and simple fault geometry (no stepovers or large changes in strike, 87% of the rupture that was mapped in detail is single-stranded). We attribute the extreme length of the Mandalay earthquake to supershear rupture speed, simple fault geometry, narrow down-dip width, and moderate surface slip. Based on a compilation of 25 supershear strike-slip earthquakes ( M w 6.5–8.6; 1979–2025), we find that the rupture length of supershear earthquakes does not fit empirical scaling relationships for strike-slip earthquakes that predict length from magnitude. A length-magnitude scaling relationship based on supershear earthquakes has a best fit of log 10 (surface rupture length) = 0.89 M w – 4.44, indicating that supershear earthquakes tend to be longer than their subshear counterparts for any given magnitude and thus may expose a greater population to shaking.

Mandalay↗
USGS2026

Emergent headwater types for watershed monitoring, research, and planning

Headwaters—that is headwater streams and the watersheds they drain—strongly influence water quality, ecosystem services, and hydrologic connectivity, yet remain poorly mapped, monitored, and understood at large spatial scales. Using available spatial data to classify headwater “types” could therefore enhance the utility of sparse monitoring data to advance research and watershed planning—and help update literature-based perceptual models of headwaters as steep, forested, and minimally disturbed watersheds. Here, we analyze headwaters across the contiguous United States to quantify how their attributes (climate, topography, land cover, soils) vary regionally and differ from their downstream watersheds. Our analysis (a) identified seven dominant headwater types with distinct combinations of biophysical and climatic attributes and (b) revealed systematic contrasts with downstream watersheds, with strongest differences in attributes representing potential flowpath depth. Our findings offer a transferable framework for classifying, modeling, and managing these critical yet understudied components of the hydrologic network.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2025

Mechanics and statistics of postseismic shaking

Analysis of two weeks of continuous post-seismic shaking after the 2019 M7.1 Ridgecrest, CA earthquake sequence using 4 nearby borehole seismometers reveals that continuous ground motions decay as Omori’s law in time and follow the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in logarithmic amplitude. The measured temporal decay in amplitudes agrees with predictions of the rate-and-state framework and indicates shaking amplitudes are proportional to the velocity of afterslip. Our ground motion-based statistical framework provides a basis to forecast shaking intensity in the minutes to hours after a large earthquake.

California↗
USGS2025

S/P amplitude ratios with Distributed Acoustic Sensing and application to earthquake focal mechanisms

Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), which transforms a fiber optic cable into an array of high frequency strainmeters, has the potential to help us characterize earthquakes with a dense sampling of measurements. While earthquake focal mechanisms are frequently determined using P -wave polarities and S / P amplitude ratios with inertial seismometers, the dense sampling of DAS over potentially large portions of the focal sphere can aid our solutions. Here, we consider ∼200 regional earthquakes and thousands of S / P measurements on a DAS cable colocated with a network of inertial seismometers near Arcata, California. We demonstrate the S / P ratio measurements made on DAS are similar to those made on the inertial seismometers and can be used to constrain focal mechanism solutions.

California↗
USGS2024

GRAPES: Earthquake early warning by passing seismic vectors through the grapevine

Estimating an earthquake's magnitude and location may not be necessary to predict shaking in real time; instead, wavefield-based approaches predict shaking with few assumptions about the seismic source. Here, we introduce GRAph Prediction of Earthquake Shaking (GRAPES), a deep learning model trained to characterize and propagate earthquake shaking across a seismic network. We show that GRAPES’ internal activations, which we call “seismic vectors”, correspond to the arrival of distinct seismic phases. GRAPES builds upon recent deep learning models applied to earthquake early warning by allowing for continuous ground motion prediction with seismic networks of all sizes. While trained on earthquakes recorded in Japan, we show that GRAPES, without modification, outperforms the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system on the 2019 M7.1 Ridgecrest, CA earthquake.

Shimane/HiroshimaPrefectures↗
USGS2025

The role of bedrock circulation depth and porosity in mountain streamflow response to prolonged drought

Quantitative understanding is lacking on how the depth of active groundwater circulation in bedrock affects mountain streamflow response to a multi‐year drought. We use an integrated hydrological model to explore the sensitivity of a variety of streamflow metrics to bedrock circulation depth and porosity under a plausible extreme drought scenario lasting up to 5 years. Endmember depth versus hydraulic conductivity relationships and porosity values for fractured crystalline rock are simulated. With drought, a deeper circulation system with higher drainable porosity more effectively buffers minimum flow and significantly limits perennial stream loss in comparison to a shallow circulation system. Streamflow buffering is accomplished through extensive groundwater storage loss. However, deeper circulation systems experience prolonged recovery from drought in comparison to storage‐limited shallow systems. Research highlights the importance of characterizing the deeper bedrock hydrogeology in mountainous watersheds to better understand and predict drought impacts on stream ecosystem health and water resource sustainability.

Colorado↗
USGS2025

Anomalous shear stress variation in wet granular medium: Implications for landslide lateral faults

Landslide assessments typically focus on the mechanical properties of the basal shear zone, but lateral faults are frequently overlooked, possibly due to their lower normal stresses and variably saturated conditions. Using double-cylinder shear experiments on wet granular systems as analogs for landslide lateral faults, we observe anomalous shear stress variations with fluid volume fractions, defying an expected unimodal relationship associated with capillary cohesion. At low fluid volume fractions, shear strength weakens as the wet grain assembly experiences reduced lateral pressure and increased boundary slip. This boundary slip subsequently vanishes, with an abrupt strengthening due to the dilation of the grain assembly against fluid surface tension as saturation approaches. Strike-slip motion and confinement in this system explain the strength anomaly, highlighting a critical role of lateral faults in landslide stability, particularly in cases where dynamics cannot be adequately explained by monitored pore-water pressure or basal friction.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2026

Decadal shifts in groundwater age detected by environmental tracers across California, USA

Groundwater age offers important insight into recharge, storage, and contamination risk. Although models predict age changes can be driven by pumping and climate variability, direct observational evidence remains limited. Here, we analyzed paired environmental tracer suites (tritium, carbon-14, and tritiogenic helium-3) collected a decade apart from 268 wells across California to assess the prevalence of groundwater age transience. Travel-time distribution models and statistical tests indicated age transience at 29% of sites, occurring most often in agricultural regions, such as the San Joaquin Valley and Southern Coast Ranges, where large carbon-14 changes coincided with substantial nitrate and chloride shifts. Sites with tritiogenic helium-3 data showed more frequent age transience, underscoring the value of multi-tracer data sets. These results provide the first regional evidence of widespread groundwater age change and a method for detecting changing water balances with implications for groundwater sustainability and water quality.

California↗