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External quality assurance project report for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program’s National Trends Network and Mercury Deposition Network, 2017–18

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation Chemistry Quality Assurance project (PCQA) operated five distinct programs to provide external quality-assurance monitoring for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program’s (NADP) National Trends Network and Mercury Deposition Network during 2017–18. The National Trends Network programs included (1) a field audit program to evaluate sample contamination and stability, (2) an interlaboratory comparison program to evaluate analytical laboratory performance, and (3) a colocated sampler program to evaluate variability attributed to automated precipitation samplers. The Mercury Deposition Network programs include the (4) system blank program and (5) an interlaboratory comparison program. The results indicate consistently low levels of sample contamination, generally strong analytical laboratory performance, and low overall variability in concentration data imparted by field equipment. The NADP operations moved from its 40-year home at the Illinois State Water Survey to the Wisconsin State Laboratory of Hygiene in June 2018. The PCQA programs were modified and (or) temporarily curtailed during the transition in 2018. Bias and variability of sample analysis results were evaluated for the two Central Analytical Laboratories, and ongoing monitoring will be helpful to differentiate true environmental signals from the effects of changing laboratory conditions and performance. Results of quality assurance sample analyses are provided to document that NADP data continue to be of sufficient quality for the analysis of spatial distributions and time trends for chemical constituents in wet deposition.

Scientific Investigations Report

Multilevel Hierarchical Modeling of Benthic Macroinvertebrate Responses to Urbanization in Nine Metropolitan Regions across the Conterminous United States

Multilevel hierarchical modeling methodology has been developed for use in ecological data analysis. The effect of urbanization on stream macroinvertebrate communities was measured across a gradient of basins in each of nine metropolitan regions across the conterminous United States. The hierarchical nature of this dataset was harnessed in a multi-tiered model structure, predicting both invertebrate response at the basin scale and differences in invertebrate response at the region scale. Ordination site scores, total taxa richness, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) taxa richness, and richness-weighted mean tolerance of organisms at a site were used to describe invertebrate responses. Percentage of urban land cover was used as a basin-level predictor variable. Regional mean precipitation, air temperature, and antecedent agriculture were used as region-level predictor variables. Multilevel hierarchical models were fit to both levels of data simultaneously, borrowing statistical strength from the complete dataset to reduce uncertainty in regional coefficient estimates. Additionally, whereas non-hierarchical regressions were only able to show differing relations between invertebrate responses and urban intensity separately for each region, the multilevel hierarchical regressions were able to explain and quantify those differences within a single model. In this way, this modeling approach directly establishes the importance of antecedent agricultural conditions in masking the response of invertebrates to urbanization in metropolitan regions such as Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; Denver, Colorado; and Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas. Also, these models show that regions with high precipitation, such as Atlanta, Georgia; Birmingham, Alabama; and Portland, Oregon, start out with better regional background conditions of invertebrates prior to urbanization but experience faster negative rates of change with urbanization. Ultimately, this urbanization-invertebrate response example is used to detail the multilevel hierarchical construction methodology, showing how the result is a set of models that are both statistically more rigorous and ecologically more interpretable than simple linear regression models.

Scientific Investigations Report

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979–2015) and future (2020–2040 and 2080–2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin

Groundwater/surface-water interactions in the Bad River Watershed, Wisconsin

A groundwater-flow model was developed for the Bad River Watershed and surrounding area by using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) finite-difference code MODFLOW-NWT. The model simulates steady-state groundwater-flow and base flow in streams by using the streamflow routing (SFR) package. The objectives of this study were to: (1) develop an improved understanding of the groundwater-flow system in the Bad River Watershed at the regional scale, including the sources of water to the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Reservation (Reservation) and groundwater/surface-water interactions; (2) provide a quantitative platform for evaluating future impacts to the watershed, which can be used as a starting point for more detailed investigations at the local scale; and (3) identify areas where more data are needed. This report describes the construction and calibration of the groundwater-flow model that was subsequently used for analyzing potential locations for the collection of additional field data, including new observations of water-table elevation for refining the conceptualization and corresponding numerical model of the hydrogeologic system. The study area can be conceptually divided into three primary hydrogeologic environments. The first encompasses the southern uplands with relatively low topographic relief, where groundwater-flow is unconfined and occurs primarily in sandy till and glacial outwash overlying Archean-aged crystalline bedrock. The second includes a transitional area of higher topographic relief and shallow depth to bedrock, in the vicinity of ridges formed by steeply dipping, early-Proterozoic aged metasedimentary units of the Marquette Range Supergroup (including the Ironwood Formation), and late-Proterozoic igneous units associated with the Midcontinent Rift System (MRS). Groundwater-flow in this area likely occurs primarily through connected networks of bedrock fractures that are not well characterized, and also in isolated pockets of Quaternary deposits. The third and last hydrogeologic environment includes lowlands along Lake Superior where a deep sandstone aquifer is confined by thick deposits of clay-rich till. Model input was compiled by using both published and unpublished data. Constant flux boundary conditions for the model perimeter were developed from a regional analytic element model described in appendix 1 of this report. Pumping from 26 high-capacity wells within the model area was included. The SFR stream network was developed from the National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus Version 2) and hydrography from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR). Hydraulic conductivity values were determined for each model cell by interpolation from a network of pilot points, within zones representing major hydrogeologic units. Recharge to the groundwater system was estimated on a cell-by-cell basis by using the Soil Water Balance code (SWB), with gridded daily temperature and precipitation data for the period 1980–2011, and GIS coverages of soil and land-surface conditions. Estimated recharge varies considerably, following spatial patterns in the precipitation and soil hydrologic group inputs. The lowest recharge values occur in the Superior lowlands, whereas the highest values occur in the upland areas, especially those underlain by sandy soils, and in the vicinity of bedrock hills. The model was calibrated to groundwater-levels and base flows obtained from the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) database, and groundwater-levels obtained from the WDNR and Band River Band well-construction databases. Calibration was performed via nonlinear regression by using the parameter-estimation software suite PEST. Groundwater levels and base-flow observations in the calibration dataset were well simulated by the calibrated model, with reasonable values of hydraulic conductivity. The pilot-point parameters that were most constrained by observations during model calibration coincided with the locations containing the most wells (head observations)—especially the population centers of Ashland, Mellen, and other communities along the major highway corridors. Results from the calibrated model illustrate differences in the nature of groundwater-flow within the watershed. In the southern part of the watershed, where bedrock is shallow, groundwater flow paths are relatively short, extending from local recharge areas to adjacent first and second-order streams. In contrast, laterally continuous deposits of clay-rich till covering the Superior Lowlands isolate most smaller streams from the sandstone aquifer, allowing for longer flow paths toward larger streams such as the Bad, Marengo, and White Rivers. Approximately three-quarters of all first-order stream cells were dry in the Superior Lowlands, compared to only half of first-order stream cells in the southern bedrock uplands. The model was used to delineate the groundwatershed for the Bad and Kakagon Rivers. “Groundwatershed” is defined as the area contributing groundwater discharge to one of these streams and their tributaries. The groundwatershed was found to align closely with the surface-watershed, with the most notable exception occurring along the southwestern half of Birch Hill, where surface water drains southwest towards the Potato River, and groundwater flows north and east towards Lake Superior. Similarly, the contributing area of groundwater-flow to the Reservation was delineated. Results indicate the off-Reservation groundwater contributing area to be limited in comparison to the extent of the watershed, extending southward into the highlands underlain by MRS igneous rock units, but not further into the area underlain by the Marquette Range Supergroup. Stable isotope samples were collected from 54 wells within the watershed, to investigate sources of groundwater. Oxygen-18 (δ 18 O) values lower than -13.0 per mil were documented in the sampling, and likely indicate the presence of recharge water from the last glacial period (>9,500 years old) beneath the northern portion of the Reservation, in the vicinity of Odanah, Wisconsin. Finally, a new data-worth analysis of potential new monitoring-well locations was performed by using the model. The relative worth of new measurements was evaluated based on their ability to increase confidence in model predictions of groundwater levels and base flows at 35 locations, under the condition of a proposed open-pit iron mine. Results of the new data-worth analysis, and other inputs and outputs from the Bad River model, are available through an online dynamic web mapping service at ( http://wim.usgs.gov/badriver/ ).

Wisconsin

Peak streamflow trends in Wisconsin and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

This study characterizes hydroclimatic variability and change in peak streamflow and daily streamflow in Wisconsin from water years 1921 through 2020. Nonstationarity in peak streamflow in Wisconsin can include monotonic trends, change points, and autocorrelation. Spatial patterns of nonstationarity in peak streamflow, daily streamflow, and monthly precipitation, temperature, and snowfall were examined using four temporal periods. Upward trends in peak streamflow and daily streamflow were detected across the State, from around 1990 to 2020 and were likely predominantly driven by concurrent increases in precipitation and temperatures during this time. Earlier decreases in peak streamflow between the 1920s to the 1980s in the southern parts of the State were likely affected by nonclimate-related factors such as urbanization, water use, and land-use changes associated with agriculture.

Wisconsin

Predicting water quality by relating secchi-disk transparency and chlorophyll a measurements to satellite imagery for Michigan inland lakes, August 2002

Inland lakes are an important economic and environmental resource for Michigan. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality have been cooperatively monitoring the quality of selected lakes in Michigan through the Lake Water Quality Assessment program. Through this program, approximately 730 of Michigan's 11,000 inland lakes will be monitored once during this 15-year study. Targeted lakes will be sampled during spring turnover and again in late summer to characterize water quality. Because more extensive and more frequent sampling is not economically feasible in the Lake Water Quality Assessment program, the U.S. Geological Survey and Michigan Department of Environmental Quality investigate the use of satellite imagery as a means of estimating water quality in unsampled lakes. Satellite imagery has been successfully used in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and elsewhere to compute the trophic state of inland lakes from predicted secchi-disk measurements. Previous attempts of this kind in Michigan resulted in a poorer fit between observed and predicted data than was found for Minnesota or Wisconsin. This study tested whether estimates could be improved by using atmospherically corrected satellite imagery, whether a more appropriate regression model could be obtained for Michigan, and whether chlorophyll a concentrations could be reliably predicted from satellite imagery in order to compute trophic state of inland lakes. Although the atmospheric-correction did not significantly improve estimates of lake-water quality, a new regression equation was identified that consistently yielded better results than an equation obtained from the literature. A stepwise regression was used to determine an equation that accurately predicts chlorophyll a concentrations in northern Lower Michigan.

Michigan

Invertebrate response to changes in streamflow hydraulics in two urban areas in the United States

Stream hydrology is foundational to aquatic ecosystems and has been shown to be a structuring element for fish and invertebrates. The relations among urbanization, hydraulics, and invertebrate communities were investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey, National Water-Quality Assessment Program by using measures of stream hydraulics in two areas of the United States. Specifically, the hypothesis that the effects of urbanization on streamflow and aquatic biota are transferable across geographic regions was tested. Data from sites in Raleigh, North Carolina, and Milwaukee–Green Bay, Wisconsin, were compared and indicate that increasing urbanization has an effect on hydraulic characteristics (Reynolds number, shear stress, and stream power for example) in each metropolitan area, though limited commonality of significant correlations was noted between areas. Correspondence of significant correlations between invertebrate and hydraulic metrics between study areas also was limited. The links between urbanization, hydraulics, and invertebrates could be seen only in the Raleigh data. Connections among these three elements in the Milwaukee–Green Bay data were not clear and likely were obscured by antecedent land cover. Observed biotic differences due to hydrology and urbanization characteristics are not similar between geographic regions.

Scientific Investigations Report

Flood of July 2016 in northern Wisconsin and the Bad River Reservation

Heavy rain fell across northern Wisconsin and the Bad River Reservation on July 11, 2016, as a result of several rounds of thunderstorms. The storms caused major flooding in the Bad River Basin and nearby tributaries along the south shore of Lake Superior. Rainfall totals were 8–10 inches or more and most of the rain fell in an 8-hour period. A streamgage on the Bad River near Odanah, Wisconsin, rose from 300 cubic feet per second to a record peak streamflow of 40,000 cubic feet per second in only 15 hours. Following the storms and through September 2016, personnel from the U.S. Geological Survey and Bad River Tribe Natural Resources Department recovered and documented 108 high-water marks near the Bad River Reservation. Many of these high-water marks were used to create three flood-inundation maps for the Bad River, Beartrap Creek, and Denomie Creek for the Bad River Reservation in the vicinity of the community of Odanah.

Wisconsin

Estimating flood magnitude and frequency for unregulated streams in Wisconsin

Flood frequency characteristics and estimated flood discharges for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities were computed at 299 streamgaged locations in Wisconsin. The State was divided into four flood frequency regions using a cluster analysis to produce regions which are homogeneous with respect to physical basin characteristics. Regression equations relating flood discharges to basin characteristics within each region were developed and can be used to estimate flood discharges at ungaged locations in Wisconsin. Basin characteristics included in the final regression equations include drainage area, saturated hydraulic conductivity, percent forest, percent herbaceous upland, percent open water, and the maximum 24-hour precipitation with a 10-year recurrence interval. The standard error of prediction for regression equations ranges between 40 and 71 percent, and the pseudo coefficient of determination ranges between 0.8 and 0.95. Nonmonotonic trends in the annual peak flow time series in the southwest part of the State are producing bias in some flood discharge estimates at streamgages with shorter (less than 20 years) periods of record. This bias increases the uncertainty in regression equations in this flood frequency region.

Wisconsin

Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for the Katmai volcanic cluster, Alaska

The world’s largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century broke out at Novarupta (fig. 1) in June 1912, filling with hot ash what came to be called the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes and spreading downwind more fallout than all other historical Alaskan eruptions combined. Although almost all the magma vented at Novarupta, most of it had been stored beneath Mount Katmai 10 km away, which collapsed during the eruption. Airborne ash from the 3-day event blanketed all of southern Alaska, and its gritty fallout was reported as far away as Dawson, Ketchikan, and Puget Sound (fig. 21). Volcanic dust and sulfurous aerosol were detected within days over Wisconsin and Virginia; within 2 weeks over California, Europe, and North Africa; and in latter-day ice cores recently drilled on the Greenland ice cap. There were no aircraft in Alaska in 1912—fortunately! Corrosive acid aerosols damage aircraft, and ingestion of volcanic ash can cause abrupt jet-engine failure. Today, more than 200 flights a day transport 20,000 people and a fortune in cargo within range of dozens of restless volcanoes in the North Pacific. Air routes from the Far East to Europe and North America pass over and near Alaska, many flights refueling in Anchorage. Had this been so in 1912, every airport from Dillingham to Dawson and from Fairbanks to Seattle would have been enveloped in ash, leaving pilots no safe option but to turn back or find refuge at an Aleutian airstrip west of the ash cloud. Downwind dust and aerosol could have disrupted air traffic anywhere within a broad swath across Canada and the Midwest, perhaps even to the Atlantic coast. The great eruption of 1912 focused scientific attention on Novarupta, and subsequent research there has taught us much about the processes and hazards associated with such large explosive events (Fierstein and Hildreth, 1992). Moreover, work in the last decade has identified no fewer than 20 discrete volcanic vents within 15 km of Novarupta (Hildreth and others, 1999, 2000, 2001; Hildreth and Fierstein, 2000), only half of which had been named previously—the four stratovolcanoes Mounts Katmai, Mageik, Martin, and Griggs; the cone cluster called Trident Volcano; Snowy Mountain; and the three lava domes Novarupta, Mount Cerberus, and Falling Mountain. The most recent eruptions were from Trident Volcano (1953–74), but there have been at least eight other, probably larger, explosive events from the volcanoes of this area in the past 10,000 years. This report summarizes what has been learned about the volcanic histories and styles of eruption of all these volcanoes. Many large earthquakes occurred before and during the 1912 eruption, and the cluster of Katmai volcanoes remains seismically active. Because we expect an increase in seismicity before eruptions, seismic monitoring efforts to detect volcanic unrest and procedures for eruption notification and dissemination of information are included in this report. Most at risk from future eruptions of the Katmai volcanic cluster are (1) air-traffic corridors of the North Pacific, including those approaching Anchorage, one of the Pacific’s busiest international airports, (2) several regional airports and military air bases, (3) fisheries and navigation on the Naknek Lake system and Shelikof Strait, (4) pristine wildlife habitat, particularly that of the Alaskan brown bear, and (5) tourist facilities in and near Katmai National Park.

Alaska

Ground-water flow direction, water quality, recharge sources, and age, Great Sand Dunes National Monument, south-central Colorado

Great Sand Dunes National Monument is located in south-central Colorado along the eastern edge of the San Luis Valley. The Great Sand Dunes National Monument contains the tallest sand dunes in North America; some rise up to750 feet. Important ecological features of the Great Sand Dunes National Monument are palustrine wetlands associated with interdunal ponds and depressions along the western edge of the dune field. The existence and natural maintenance of the dune field and the interdunal ponds are dependent on maintaining ground-water levels at historic elevations. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study, in collaboration with the National Park Service, of ground-water flow direction, water quality, recharge sources, and age at the Great Sand Dunes National Monument. A shallow unconfined aquifer and a deeper confined aquifer are the two principal aquifers at the Great Sand Dunes National Monument. Ground water in the unconfined aquifer is recharged from Medano and Sand Creeks near the Sangre de Cristo Mountain front, flows underneath the main dune field, and discharges to Big and Little Spring Creeks. The percentage of calcium in ground water in the unconfined aquifer decreases and the percentage of sodium increases because of ionic exchange with clay minerals as the ground water flows underneath the dune field. It takes more than 60 years for the ground water to flow from Medano and Sand Creeks to Big and Little Spring Creeks. During this time, ground water in the upper part of the unconfined aquifer is recharged by numerous precipitation events. Evaporation of precipitation during recharge prior to reaching the water table causes enrichment in deuterium (2H) and oxygen-18 (18O) relative to waters that are not evaporated. This recharge from precipitation events causes the apparent ages determined using chlorofluorocarbons and tritium to become younger, because relatively young precipitation water is mixing with older waters derived from Medano and Sand Creeks. Major ion chemistry of water from sites completed in the confined aquifer is different than water from sites completed in the unconfined aquifer, but insufficient data exist to quantify if the two aquifers are hydrologically disconnected. Radiocarbon dating of ground water in the confined aquifer indicates it is about 30,000 years old (plus or minus 3,000 years). The peak of the last major ice advance (Wisconsin) during the ice age occurred about 20,000 years before present; ground water from the confined aquifer is much older than that. Water quality and water levels of the interdunal ponds are not affected by waters from the confined aquifer. Instead, the interdunal ponds are affected directly by fluctuations in the water table of the unconfined aquifer. Any lowering of the water table of the unconfined aquifer would result in an immediate decrease in water levels of the interdunal ponds. The water quality of the interdunal ponds probably results from several factors, including the water quality of the unconfined aquifer, evaporation of the pond water, and biologic activity within the ponds.

Colorado

Multi-decade mortality and a novel homolog of hepatitis C virus in bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ), the national bird of the USA

The bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) once experienced near-extinction but has since rebounded. For decades, bald eagles near the Wisconsin River, USA, have experienced a lethal syndrome with characteristic clinical and pathological features but unknown etiology. Here, we describe a novel hepacivirus-like virus (Flaviviridae: Hepacivirus) identified during an investigation of Wisconsin River eagle syndrome (WRES). Bald eagle hepacivirus (BeHV) belongs to a divergent clade of avian viruses that share features with members of the genera Hepacivirus and Pegivirus. BeHV infected 31.9% of eagles spanning 4,254 km of the coterminous USA, with negative strand viral RNA demonstrating active replication in liver tissues. Eagles from Wisconsin were approximately 10-fold more likely to be infected than eagles from elsewhere. Eagle mitochondrial DNA sequences were homogeneous and geographically unstructured, likely reflecting a recent population bottleneck, whereas BeHV envelope gene sequences showed strong population genetic substructure and isolation by distance, suggesting localized transmission. Cophylogenetic analyses showed no congruity between eagles and their viruses, supporting horizontal rather than vertical transmission. These results expand our knowledge of the Flaviviridae, reveal a striking pattern of decoupled host/virus coevolution on a continental scale, and highlight knowledge gaps about health and conservation in even the most iconic of wildlife species.

Scientific Reports

Distribution and variation of arsenic in Wisconsin surface soils, with data on other trace elements

A total of 664 soil samples distributed among different geographic regions and soil types were collected across Wisconsin to describe the distribution of arsenic relative to parent material, soil texture, and drainage class. Soils from 6 inches in depth were composited, digested in aqua regia, and analyzed for 17 trace elements. Observed soil arsenic concentrations range from a high of 39 milligrams per kilogram (mg/kg) to less than the laboratory detection limit of 1 mg/kg. Ten samples with soil arsenic concentrations greater than 8.5 mg/kg were determined to be significantly separate from the main cluster of the dataset. With these outliers removed, overall soil arsenic concentrations in Wisconsin have a median value of 1.8 mg/kg, and the 95-percent upper confidence limit of the mean is 2.4 mg/kg. Soils with sandy glacial outwash as a parent material have a lower median arsenic concentration (1.0 mg/kg) than soils forming in other parent materials (1.5 to 3.0 mg/kg). Soil texture and drainage category also influence median arsenic concentration. Finer grained soils have a higher observed range of concentrations. For loamy and loess-dominated soil groups, drainage category influences the median arsenic concentration and observed range of values, but a consistent relationship within the data is not apparent. Statistical analysis of the 16 other elements are presented in this report, but the relationships of concentrations to soil properties or geographic areas were not examined.

Wisconsin

Trends in Streamflow and Nutrient and Suspended-Sediment Concentrations and Loads in the Upper Mississippi, Ohio, Red, and Great Lakes River Basins, 1975-2004

Many actions have been taken to reduce nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations and the amount of nutrients and sediment transported in streams as a result of the Clean Water Act and subsequent regulations. This report assesses how nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in selected streams have changed during recent years to determine if these actions have been successful. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in concentrations and trends in loads from 1993 to 2004 were computed for total nitrogen, dissolved ammonia, total organic nitrogen plus ammonia, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, dissolved phosphorus, total suspended material (total suspended solids or suspended sediment), and total suspended sediment for 49 sites in the Upper Mississippi, Ohio, Red, and Great Lakes Basins. Changes in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total suspended-material loads were examined from 1975 to 2003 at six sites to provide a longer term context for the data examined from 1993 to 2004. Flow-adjusted trends in total nitrogen concentrations at 19 of 24 sites showed tendency toward increasing concentrations, and overall trends in total nitrogen concentrations at 16 of the 24 sites showed a general tendency toward increasing concentrations. The trends in these flow-adjusted total nitrogen concentrations are related to the changes in fertilizer nitrogen applications. Flow-adjusted trends in dissolved ammonia concentrations from 1993 to 2004 showed a widespread tendency toward decreasing concentrations. The widespread, downward trends in dissolved ammonia concentrations indicate that some of the ammonia reduction goals of the Clean Water Act are being met. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in total organic plus ammonia nitrogen concentrations from 1993 to 2004 did not show a distinct spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations from 1993 to 2004 also did not show a distinct spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus concentrations were upward at 24 of 40 sites. Overall trends in total phosphorus concentrations were mixed and showed no spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in dissolved phosphorus concentrations were consistently downward at all of the sites in the eastern part of the basins studied. The reduction in phosphorus fertilizer use and manure production east of the Mississippi River could explain most of the observed trends in dissolved phosphorus. Flow-adjusted trends in total suspended-material concentrations showed distinct spatial patterns of increasing tendencies throughout the western part of the basins studied and in Illinois and decreasing concentrations throughout most of Wisconsin, Iowa, and in the eastern part of the basins studied. Flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus were strongly related to the flow-adjusted trends in suspended materials. The trends in the flow-adjusted suspended-sediment concentrations from 1993 to 2004 resembled those for suspended materials. The long-term, nonmonotonic trends in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended-material loads for 1975 to 2003 were described by local regression, LOESS, smoothing for six sites. The statistical significance of those trends cannot be determined; however, the long-term changes found for annual streamflow and load data indicate that the monotonic trends from 1993 to 2004 should not be extrapolated backward in time.

Scientific Investigations Report

The role of street cleaning on the water-quality performance of a stormwater treatment pond in Madison, Wisconsin

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources and the City of Madison, evaluated how street cleaning frequency influences the pollutant removal efficiency of a stormwater treatment pond in Madison, Wisconsin (2020–24). Paired influent and effluent samples were analyzed for nutrients, sediment, and chloride under a weekly and monthly street cleaning scenario. Results showed that less frequent cleaning (monthly frequency) led to higher pollutant accumulation on streets, increasing influent concentrations of nitrogen and sediment. This, in turn, allowed the pond to achieve higher overall load-reduction percentage compared to weekly cleaning, particularly for total suspended sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus. Dissolved phosphorus was an exception where removal was significantly greater under weekly cleaning. One explanation could be related to internal phosphorus release from pond sediments under anoxic conditions. Nearly all events showed net export of chloride from the pond, with effluent loads exceeding influent loads for both street cleaning frequencies.

Wisconsin

Analysis of sensitivity of simulated recharge to selected parameters for seven watersheds modeled using the precipitation-runoff modeling system

Recharge is a vital component of the ground-water budget and methods for estimating it range from extremely complex to relatively simple. The most commonly used techniques, however, are limited by the scale of application. One method that can be used to estimate ground-water recharge includes process-based models that compute distributed water budgets on a watershed scale. These models should be evaluated to determine which model parameters are the dominant controls in determining ground-water recharge. Seven existing watershed models from different humid regions of the United States were chosen to analyze the sensitivity of simulated recharge to model parameters. Parameter sensitivities were determined using a nonlinear regression computer program to generate a suite of diagnostic statistics. The statistics identify model parameters that have the greatest effect on simulated ground-water recharge and that compare and contrast the hydrologic system responses to those parameters. Simulated recharge in the Lost River and Big Creek watersheds in Washington State was sensitive to small changes in air temperature. The Hamden watershed model in west-central Minnesota was developed to investigate the relations that wetlands and other landscape features have with runoff processes. Excess soil moisture in the Hamden watershed simulation was preferentially routed to wetlands, instead of to the ground-water system, resulting in little sensitivity of any parameters to recharge. Simulated recharge in the North Fork Pheasant Branch watershed, Wisconsin, demonstrated the greatest sensitivity to parameters related to evapotranspiration. Three watersheds were simulated as part of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). Parameter sensitivities for the MOPEX watersheds, Amite River, Louisiana and Mississippi, English River, Iowa, and South Branch Potomac River, West Virginia, were similar and most sensitive to small changes in air temperature and a user-defined flow routing parameter. Although the primary objective of this study was to identify, by geographic region, the importance of the parameter value to the simulation of ground-water recharge, the secondary objectives proved valuable for future modeling efforts. The value of a rigorous sensitivity analysis can (1) make the calibration process more efficient, (2) guide additional data collection, (3) identify model limitations, and (4) explain simulated results.

Scientific Investigations Report

Workflow for using unmanned aircraft systems and traditional geospatial data to delineate agricultural drainage tiles at edge-of-field sites

Managing nutrient and sediment runoff from fields that drain to the Great Lakes is key to mitigating harmful algal blooms. Implementation of best management practices on agricultural land is considered a critical step to improving water quality in these streams, however the effect of these best management practices is difficult to quantify. The purpose of this study was to use a suite of high-resolution imagery acquired with unmanned aircraft systems (including a combination of visible, multispectral, and thermal cameras) to better characterize edge-of-field (EOF) sites in Michigan and Wisconsin that are monitored in cooperation with the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative. This high-resolution imagery (2.5–12-centimeter ground resolution) was used to delineate artificial subsurface drainage (tile-drain) networks and surface water flow paths that indicate contributing areas (that is, all area that drains to a monitored point) at these EOF sites, providing better characterization of each study site. Contributing areas for these sites ranged from 2.86 to 5.07 hectares and, among the sites, tile drains were identified as those that followed soil properties and those that were more densely patterned networks. These surveys also indicated that the contributing area monitored at the EOF sites may cross field boundaries and is not always coincident with the area underlain by subsurface drainage.

Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin

Variations in Withdrawal, Return Flow, and Consumptive Use of Water in Ohio and Indiana, with Selected Data from Wisconsin, 1999-2004

This report contains an analysis of water withdrawal and return-flow data for Ohio and withdrawal data for Indiana and Wisconsin to compute consumptive-use coefficients and to describe monthly variability of withdrawals and consumptive use. Concurrent data were available for most water-use categories from 1999 through 2004. Average monthly water withdrawals are discussed for a variety of water-use categories, and average water use per month is depicted graphically for Ohio, Indiana, and Wisconsin (public supply only). For most water-use categories, the summer months were those of highest withdrawal and highest consumptive use. For public supply, average monthly withdrawals ranged from 1,380 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) (November) to 1,620 Mgal/d (July) in Ohio, 621 Mgal/d (December) to 816 Mgal/d (July) in Indiana, and 515 Mgal/d (December) to 694 Mgal/d (July) in Wisconsin. Ohio and Indiana thermoelectric facilities had large increases in average monthly withdrawals in the summer months (5,520 Mgal/d in March to 7,510 Mgal/d in August for Indiana; 7,380 Mgal/d in February to 10,040 Mgal/d in July for Ohio), possibly because of increased electricity production in the summer, a need for additional cooling-water withdrawals when intake-water temperature is high, or use of different types of cooling methods during different times of the year. Average industrial withdrawals ranged from 2,220 Mgal/d (December) to 2,620 Mgal/d (August) in Indiana and from 707 Mgal/d (January) to 787 Mgal/d (August) in Ohio. The Ohio and Indiana irrigation data showed that most withdrawals were in May through October for golf courses, nurseries, and crop irrigation. Commercial water withdrawals ranged from 30.4 Mgal/d (January) to 65.0 Mgal/d (September) in Indiana and from 23.2 Mgal/d (November) to 49.5 Mgal/d (August) in Ohio; commercial facilities that have high water demand in Ohio and Indiana are medical facilities, schools, amusement facilities, wildlife facilities, large stores, colleges, correctional institutions, and national security facilities. Monthly livestock withdrawals were constant for Ohio but were more variable in Indiana and depended on whether the livestock facility operated on a seasonal schedule. Aquaculture withdrawals appeared to correlate with growing seasons and with aeration of ponds during the winter months. Mining withdrawals - specifically, those for nonmetallic mining - tended to be highest in April and may be related to dewatering. Consumptive use and consumptive-use coefficients were computed by two principal methods in this study: the return-flow and withdrawal method (RW; Ohio only) and the winter-base-rate method (WBR; Ohio, Indiana and Wisconsin). The WBR method was not suitable for the thermoelectric, industrial, irrigation, livestock, aquaculture, and mining water-use categories. The RW method was not used for public-supply facilities. A third method, the Standard Industrial Classification code method (SIC), was used only for certain industrial facilities. The public-supply annual average consumptive-use coefficient derived by use of the WBR methods ranged from 6 to 8 percent among Ohio, Indiana, and Wisconsin; the summer average consumptive-use coefficient was considerably higher, ranging from 16 to 20 percent. The commercial annual consumptive-use coefficient for both Ohio and Indiana was 30 percent by the WBR method, which fell within the Ohio annual median (17 percent) and annual average (42 percent) by the RW method. Thermoelectric consumptive use differs greatly by the type of cooling the facility uses; the Ohio annual median consumptive-use coefficient (RW method) was 2 percent for all thermoelectric facilities and facilities with multiple types of cooling, but exclusively once-through-cooling facilities had a median of 0 percent and exclusively closed-loop-cooling facilities had a median of 25 percent. Industrial consumptive-use coefficients varied by type of industry, as reflected by SIC code

Scientific Investigations Report