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Seismic hazard assessment: Honing the debate, testing the models

Four workshops held in 2013–2014 at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis brought together university, government, and insurance industry scientists from countries that straddle plate boundaries and those in plate interiors. Participants were invited; the workshops’ goals involved developing tests of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and other earthquake hazard assessment strategies and seeking viable alternatives to overcome weaknesses to these strategies.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Monitoring gas emissions can help forecast volcanic eruptions

As magma ascends in active volcanoes, dissolved volatiles partition from melt into a gas phase, rise, and are released into the atmosphere from volcanic vents. The major components of high-temperature volcanic gas are typically water vapor, carbon dioxide, and sulfur dioxide. Volcanologists have long recognized that measuring the chemical composition and emission rates of these discharged volatiles can help them understand the physical and chemical processes occurring within volcanic systems. However, in the past, continuous monitoring of gas emissions has been difficult because of the remote locations of many active volcanoes and the harsh environmental conditions at these sites. In late April, 40 scientists collaborating in the Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change (NOVAC) gathered for the first time in 5 years. The meeting, held on Turrialba Volcano in Costa Rica, was intended to provide a platform for the exchange of experiences with NOVAC instrumentation, spectral evaluation, and data interpretation.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

The importance of dunes on a variety of planetary surfaces

Scientists observe aeolian bed forms, or dune-like structures, throughout the solar system in a range of locations, from bodies with only transient atmospheres, such as comets, to places with thick atmospheres, such as Venus and the Earth’s ocean floor. Determining the source of sand and the different dune formations that result are thus important to understanding solar system and planetary evolution.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

What lies deep in the mantle below?

For decades, scientists have probed Earth's remote mantle by analyzing how seismic waves of distant earthquakes pass through it. But we are still challenged by the technique's limitations.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Setting the stage for a global science of atmospheric rivers

Atmospheric rivers are important mechanisms for transporting water vapor through the atmosphere outside the tropics. These long, narrow, transient corridors occur at low altitudes just ahead of the cold front in midlatitude cyclone systems. These rivers in the sky stitch together the components of the extratropical water cycle by providing large-scale horizontal water vapor transport.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Agencies collaborate, develop a cyanobacteria assessment network

Cyanobacteria are a genetically diverse group of photosynthetic microorganisms that occupy a broad range of habitats on land and water all over the world. They release toxins that can cause lung and skin irritation, alter the taste and odor of potable water, and cause human and animal illness. Cyanobacteria blooms occur worldwide, and climate change may increase the frequency, duration, and extent of these bloom events. Rapid detection of potentially harmful blooms is essential to protect humans and animals from exposure. Information about potential for exposure, such as bloom duration, frequency, and extent, is especially critical for developing environmental management decisions during periods of limited resources and funding. The National Research Council (NRC) report Exposure Science in the 21st Century suggested that effectively assessing and mitigating exposures requires techniques for rapid measurement of a stressor, such as an algal bloom, across diverse geographic, temporal, and biologic scales (e.g., various bloom concentrations) and an enhanced infrastructure to address threats [ NRC , 2012]. The report specifically calls for approaches that use diverse information, such as satellite remote sensing, to identify and understand exposures that may pose a threat to ecosystems or human health. A collaborative effort integrates the work of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide an approach for using satellite ocean color capabilities in U.S. fresh and brackish water quality management decisions. The overarching goal of this collaborative project is to detect and quantify cyanobacteria blooms using satellite data records in order to support the environmental management and public use of U.S. lakes and reservoirs. Satellite remote sensing tools may enable policy makers and environmental managers to assess the sustainability of watershed ecosystems and the services they provide, now and in the future. Satellite technology allows us to develop early-warning indicators of cyanobacteria blooms at the local scale while maintaining continuous national coverage.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

What is the Anthropocene?

Since Paul Crutzen and Eugene Stoermer introduced the word “Anthropocene” in 2000, scientists and nonscientists alike have used the word to highlight the concept that we are now living in a time when the global environment, at some level, is shaped by humankind rather than vice versa. Humans have significantly altered Earth’s land surface, oceans, rivers, atmosphere, flora, and fauna. By its emphasis on the here and now and on what humans have done and can do in the future, the word “Anthropocene” has served as a call to action for environmental sustainability and responsibility [ Crutzen and Stoermer , 2000; Waters et al. , 2014; Ruddiman et al. , 2015]. So far, however, the term “Anthropocene” has not been integrated into the official Geologic Time Scale, which geologists use to divide the past into named blocks based on the rock record. In 2016 or thereabouts, the International Commission on Stratigraphy—the scientific body that maintains the official Geologic Time Scale—will consider a proposal to formalize a definition of this term. It’s a decision that has both semantic and scientific implications and may have legal implications as well.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Planetary caves’ role in astronaut bases and the search for life

Planetary caves are practically everywhere. Scientists have identified more than 200 lunar and more than 2000 Martian cave-related features. They’ve also found vents and fissures associated with water ice plumes on Saturnian, Jovian, and Neptunian moons. Recently, primary vents of two possible cryovolcanoes were identified on Pluto.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Building a subduction zone observatory

Subduction zones contain many of Earth’s most remarkable geologic structures, from the deepest oceanic trenches to glacier-covered mountains and steaming volcanoes. These environments formed through spectacular events: Nature’s largest earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions are born here.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

The geomagnetic blitz of September 1941

Seventy-five years ago, on 18–19 September 1941, the Earth experienced a great magnetic storm, one of the most intense ever recorded. It arrived at a poignant moment in history, when radio and electrical technology was emerging as a central part of daily life and when much of the world was embroiled in World War II, which the United States had not yet officially entered. Auroras danced across the night sky as voltage surged in power grid lines. A radio blackout interrupted fan enjoyment of a baseball game, while another radio program was interrupted by private phone conversations. Citizens, already on edge, wondered if neon lights were some sort of antiaircraft signal. And far away in the North Atlantic, the illuminated night sky exposed an Allied convoy to German attack. These effects raised awareness within the scientific community and among the public of the societal significance of the effects that the Sun and outer space can have on the Earth—what we now call space weather .

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Using strain rates to forecast seismic hazards

One essential component in forecasting seismic hazards is observing the gradual accumulation of tectonic strain accumulation along faults before this strain is suddenly released as earthquakes. Typically, seismic hazard models are based on geologic estimates of slip rates along faults and historical records of seismic activity, neither of which records actively accumulating strain. But this strain can be estimated by geodesy: the precise measurement of tiny position changes of Earth’s surface, obtained from GPS , interferometric synthetic aperture radar ( InSAR ), or a variety of other instruments.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Defining snow drought and why it matters

On 12 February, water resource managers at the Oroville Dam issued an evacuation warning that forced some 180,000 Californians to relocate to higher ground. The story of how conditions got to this point involves several factors, but two clearly stand out: the need to prevent water shortages during a record drought, followed by one of the wettest October–February periods in California history. The situation at Oroville Dam highlights difficulties that many reservoir managers face in managing flood risks while simultaneously storing water to mitigate severe droughts and smaller snowpacks. Central to this difficulty is the idea of “snow drought,” a term that’s gaining traction in both scientific and lay literature.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Aquatic ecosystems in a changing climate

Extreme climate events (ECEs) such as tropical storms and hurricanes, thunderstorms, heat waves, droughts, ice storms, and snow storms have increased and are projected to further increase in intensity and frequency across the world. These events are expected to have significant consequences for aquatic ecosystems with the potential for large changes in ecosystem processes, responses, and functions.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Probing magma reservoirs to improve volcano forecasts

When it comes to forecasting eruptions, volcano observatories rely mostly on real-time signals from earthquakes, ground deformation, and gas discharge, combined with probabilistic assessments based on past behavior [Sparks and Cashman, 2017] . There is comparatively less reliance on geophysical and petrological understanding of subsurface magma reservoirs.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Planetary dune workshop expands to include subaqueous processes

Dune-like structures appear in the depths of Earth’s oceans, across its landscapes, and in the extremities of the solar system beyond. Dunes rise up under the thick dense atmosphere of Venus, and they have been found under the almost unimaginably ephemeral atmosphere of a comet.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Challenges of forecasting flooding on coral reef–lined coasts

Understanding wave-driven coastal flooding is a challenging scientific problem; the need for forecasts is becoming more urgent because of sea level rise, climate change, and ever-growing coastal populations. The tools developed for sandy shorelines are generally not applicable to coral reef–lined coasts with their complex bathymetry, hydrodynamically rough reef platforms, steep and poorly sorted beaches, and low coastal elevations. Advances in understanding and predicting flooding on coral reef–lined coasts thus require concerted efforts from a number of disciplines, including climatology, oceanography, geology, and ecology.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Seismic sensors record a hurricane’s roar

The instruments installed at Global Seismographic Network (GSN) stations were designed to record Earth’s vibrations, but they sometimes pick up sound waves from unexpected sources. For example, newly installed infrasound sensors at a station on Puerto Rico recorded the passage of Hurricane Maria on 20 September 2017.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News