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Coastal impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities: a technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

The coast has long provided communities with a multitude of benefits including an abundance of natural resources that sustain economies, societies, and ecosystems. Coasts provide natural harbors for commerce, trade, and transportation; beaches and shorelines that attract residents and tourists; and wetlands and estuaries that are critical for fisheries and water resources. Coastal ecosystems provide critical functions to cycle and move nutrients, store carbon, detoxify wastes, and purify air and water. These areas also mitigate floods and buffer against coastal storms that bring high winds and salt water inland and erode the shore. Coastal regions are critical in the development, transportation, and processing of oil and natural gas resources and, more recently, are being explored as a source of energy captured from wind and waves. The many benefits and opportunities provided in coastal areas have strengthened our economic reliance on coastal resources. Consequently, the high demands placed on the coastal environment will increase commensurately with human activity. Because 35 U.S. states, commonwealths, and territories have coastlines that border the oceans or Great Lakes, impacts to coastline systems will reverberate through social, economic, and natural systems across the U.S. Impacts on coastal systems are among the most costly and most certain consequences of a warming climate (Nicholls et al., 2007). The warming atmosphere is expected to accelerate sea-level rise as a result of the decline of glaciers and ice sheets and the thermal expansion of sea water. As mean sea level rises, coastal shorelines will retreat and low-lying areas will tend to be inundated more frequently, if not permanently, by the advancing sea. As atmospheric temperature increases and rainfall patterns change, soil moisture and runoff to the coast are likely to be altered. An increase in the intensity of climatic extremes such as storms and heat spells, coupled with other impacts of climate change and the effects of human development, could affect the sustainability of many existing coastal communities and natural resources. This report, one of a series of technical inputs for the third NCA conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, examines the known effects and relationships of climate change variables on the coasts of the U.S. It describes the impacts on natural and human systems, including several major sectors of the U.S. economy, and the progress and challenges to planning and implementing adaptation options. Below we present the key findings from each chapter of the report, beginning with the following key findings from Chapter 1: Introduction and Context.

Book

Global terrestrial nitrogen fixation and its modification by agriculture

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the largest natural source of new nitrogen (N) that supports terrestrial productivity 1,2 , yet estimates of global terrestrial BNF remain highly uncertain 3,4 . Here we show that this uncertainty is partly because of sampling bias, as field BNF measurements in natural terrestrial ecosystems occur where N fixers are 17 times more prevalent than their mean abundances worldwide. To correct this bias, we develop new estimates of global terrestrial BNF by upscaling field BNF measurements using spatially explicit abundances of all major biogeochemical N-fixing niches. We find that natural biomes sustain lower BNF, 65 (52–77) Tg N yr −1 , than previous empirical bottom-up estimates 3,4 , with most BNF occurring in tropical forests and drylands. We also find high agricultural BNF in croplands and cultivated pastures, 56 (54–58) Tg N yr −1 . Agricultural BNF has increased terrestrial BNF by 64% and total terrestrial N inputs from all sources by 60% over pre-industrial levels. Our results indicate that BNF may impose stronger constraints on the carbon sink in natural terrestrial biomes and represent a larger source of agricultural N than is generally considered in analyses of the global N cycle 5,6 , with implications for proposed safe operating limits for N use 7,8 .

Nature

How to identify win–win interventions that benefit human health and conservation

To reach the Sustainable Development Goals, we may need to act on synergies between some targets while mediating trade-offs between other targets. But what, exactly, are synergies and trade-offs, and how are they related to other outcomes, such as ‘win–win’ solutions? Finding limited guidance in the existing literature, we developed an operational method for distinguishing win–wins from eight other possible dual outcomes (lose–lose, lose–neutral and so on). Using examples related to human health and conservation, we illustrate how interdisciplinary problem-solvers can use this framework to assess relationships among targets and compare multi-target interventions that affect people and nature.

Nature Sustainability

Visioning ecologically diverse and harmonious futures of Korea in Good Anthropocene

1.The Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), a buffer between North and South Korea, holds profound historical, cultural and ecological significance, as well as exceptional potential for conservation and transformation. This study explores ecologically diverse and peaceful futures for the Korean Peninsula by envisioning the DMZ as a landscape for harmonious human–nature co-existence. 2.Using the Nature Futures Framework ( NFF ) and the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes ( SoGA ) approach, we co-developed four ‘Living in Harmony with Nature’ visions that reflect diverse values and meanings of nature for sustainable and well-being oriented futures in Korea. 3.These visions emphasize balancing human activities with ecological integrity, reimagining the DMZ as a space for peace, restoration and shared stewardship. They express citizens' perspectives on aspirational and inclusive futures, highlighting existing initiatives as levers for change and intersectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration as key enabling conditions. 4.This visioning process demonstrates the role of the science-policy-society interface, diverse stakeholder engagement and integration of history, culture and social cohesion. This paper reflects on the lessons from this process and discusses implications for future scenario development—particularly how a whole-of-society approach can help identify policy options and societal transformations that advance nature–people-positive futures in Korea and beyond.

Korean Peninsula

Inland fish and fisheries integral to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

Inland fish provide food for billions and livelihoods for millions of people worldwide and are integral to effective freshwater ecosystem function, yet the recognition of these services is notably absent in development discussions and policies, such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). How might the SDGs be enhanced if inland fishery services were integrated into policies and development schemes? Here, we examine the relationships between inland fish, sustainable fisheries, and functioning freshwater systems and the targets of the SDGs. Our goal is to highlight synergies across the SDGs, particularly No Poverty (SDG 1), Zero Hunger (SDG 2), Clean Water and Sanitation (SDG 6), Responsible Consumption and Production (SDG 12) and Life on Land (SDG 15), that can be achieved with the inclusion of these overlooked inland fishery services.

Nature Sustainability

Supplying ecosystem services on US rangelands

Rangelands comprise 40% of the conterminous United States and they supply essential ecosystem services to society. A scenario assessment was conducted to determine how accelerating biophysical and societal drivers may modify their future availability. Four scenarios emerged: two may maintain rural communities by sustaining the prevailing ecosystem service of beef cattle production, and two may transform rural communities through expansion of renewable energy technologies and infusion of external capital from amenity land sales. Collaborative organizations representing diverse societal sectors may most effectively identify and manage trade-offs among ecosystem service availability, and equitably prioritize food and energy security, environmental quality and cultural identity.

Nature Sustainability

Water scarcity and infrastructure risk of amplified seasonal sediment transport

Climate warming and deglaciation are reshaping hydrological seasonality in cold–dry regions, threatening the long-term sustainability of agriculture, ecosystems and local communities. However, existing evidence is limited to runoff seasonality. Changing sediment-transport seasonality, a more sensitive component, is emerging as a substantial yet under-recognized threat to water infrastructure. Leveraging monthly observations from the upper Tarim River from the 1960s to 2000s, we show that a warmer and wetter climate has intensified sediment-transport seasonality, with a 43% increase in summer sediment fluxes. Over half of this amplification stems from more frequent extreme sediment transport, particularly events triggered by high sediment supply rather than high discharge. Supported by a state-of-the-art river change dataset, we show that enhanced sediment seasonality and extreme sediment transport have largely contributed to increased river mobility since 2000. Sediment-driven changes are pushing riverine processes towards greater unpredictability and pose growing threats to water infrastructure and water security in vulnerable cold–dry regions.

Nature Sustainability

Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.

Arizona;Sonora

Building back bigger in hurricane strike zones

Despite decades of regulatory efforts in the United States to decrease vulnerability in developed coastal zones, exposure of residential assets to hurricane damage is increasing — even in places where hurricanes have struck before. Comparing plan-view footprints of individual residential buildings before and long after major hurricane strikes, we find a systematic pattern of ‘building back bigger’ among renovated and new properties.

Nature Sustainability

The value of US coral reefs for flood risk reduction

Habitats, such as coral reefs, can mitigate increasing flood damages through coastal protection services. We provide a fine-scale, national valuation of the flood risk reduction benefits of coral habitats to people, property, economies and infrastructure. Across 3,100 km of US coastline, the top-most 1 m of coral reefs prevents the 100-yr flood from growing by 23% (113 km 2 ), avoiding flooding to 53,800 (62%) people, US\$2.7 billion (90%) damage to buildings and US\$2.6 billion (49%) in indirect economic effects. We estimate the hazard risk reduction benefits of US coral reefs to exceed US$1.8 billion annually. Many highly developed coastlines in Florida and Hawaii receive annual benefits of over US\$10 million km –1 , whereas US reefs critically reduce flooding of vulnerable populations. This quantification of spatial risk reduction can help to prioritize joint actions in flood management and environmental conservation, opening new opportunities to support reef management with hazard mitigation funding.

Nature Sustainability

Assessing placement bias of the global river gauge network

Knowing where and when rivers flow is paramount to managing freshwater ecosystems. Yet stream gauging stations are distributed sparsely across rivers globally and may not capture the diversity of fluvial network properties and anthropogenic influences. Here we evaluate the placement bias of a global stream gauge dataset on its representation of socioecological, hydrologic, climatic and physiographic diversity of rivers. We find that gauges are located disproportionally in large, perennial rivers draining more human-occupied watersheds. Gauges are sparsely distributed in protected areas and rivers characterized by non-perennial flow regimes, both of which are critical to freshwater conservation and water security concerns. Disparities between the geography of the global gauging network and the broad diversity of streams and rivers weakens our ability to understand critical hydrologic processes and make informed water-management and policy decisions. Our findings underscore the need to address current gauge placement biases by investing in and prioritizing the installation of new gauging stations, embracing alternative water-monitoring strategies, advancing innovation in hydrologic modelling, and increasing accessibility of local and regional gauging data to support human responses to water challenges, both today and in the future.

Nature Sustainability

Human and infrastructure exposure to large wildfires in the United States

An increasing number of wildfire disasters have occurred in recent years in the United States. Here we demonstrate that cumulative primary human exposure—the population residing within the perimeters of large wildfires—was 594,850 people from 2000 to 2019 across the contiguous United States (CONUS), 82% of which occurred in the western United States. Primary population exposure increased by 125% in the CONUS in the past two decades; it was noted that there were large statistical uncertainties in the trend analysis due to the short study timeline. Population dynamics from 2000 to 2019 alone accounted for 24% of the observed increase rate in human exposure, and an increased wildfire extent drove the majority of the observed trends. In addition, we document the widespread exposure of roads (412,155 km) and transmission powerlines (14,835 km) to large wildfires in the CONUS, with a relative increase of 58% and 70% in the past two decades, respectively. Our results highlight that deliberate mitigation and adaptation efforts to help societies cope with wildfires are ever more needed.

Nature Sustainability

Enduring cultural legacies affect Euro-American wildlife values

Social values shape biodiversity conservation success. Yet information is lacking on how values form, change and adapt people to their environment. Our 33-nation survey in 2021–2023 ( n = 18,477) explored the effect of the institutions of European colonization on present-day values towards wildlife in the Americas. Here we found mutualism values (seeing wildlife as part of one’s social community) prevail in Iberian-origin Latin American countries, whereas domination values (seeing wildlife as a resource for human use) are more prevalent in British-origin North American countries. Multilevel analysis showed significant country-level effects of colonial institution (for example, colonial origin, Protestant versus Catholic religious cultures) and endowment (for example, pre-colonial population density, Indigenous ancestry, settler mortality) factors on wildlife values in the Americas. The strong mutualism emphasis in Latin America appears to be consistent with acculturation between the compatible ideologies of Indigenous peoples and the Iberian colonizers. The effectiveness of wildlife institutions and policies will depend on their congruence with the social values of publics being served.

Nature Sustainability

The North American strain of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus is highly pathogenic for laboratory-reared Pacific herring ( Clupea pallasi )

Specific-pathogen-free Pacific herring Clupea pallasi were reared in the laboratory from eggs and then challenged at 5, 9, and 13 months of age by waterborne exposure to low (10 1.5–2.5 plaque-forming units [PFU] per milliliter), medium (10 3.5–4.5 PFU/mL), or high (10 5.5–6.5 PFU/mL) levels of a North American isolate of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV). The fish were extremely susceptible to the virus, showing clinical disease, mortality approaching 100%, and only a limited increase in resistance with age. Mortality began 4–6 d after exposure and peaked at approximately day 7 in fish exposed to high levels of virus. Whereas the mean time to death showed a significant dose response ( P < 0.001), the percent mortality and virus titers in dead fish were generally high in all groups regardless of initial challenge dose. External signs of disease were usually limited to 1–2-mm hemorrhagic areas on the lower jaw and isthmus and around the eye, but 2 of 130 infected fish exhibited extensive cutaneous hemorrhaging. Histopathologic examination of tissues from moribund fish sampled at 2–8 d after exposure revealed multifocal coagulative necrosis of hepatocytes, diffuse necrosis of interstitial hematopoietic tissues in the kidney, diffuse necrosis of the spleen, epidermis, and subcutis, and occasional necrosis of pancreatic acinar cells. Virus titers in tissues of experimentally infected herring were first detected 48 h after exposure and peaked 6-8 d after exposure at 10 7.7 PFU/g. Fish began shedding virus at 48 h after exposure with titers in the flow-through aquaria reaching 10 2.5 PFU/mL at 4–5 d after exposure, just before peak mortality. When the water flow was turned off for 3 h, titers in the water rose to 10 3.5 PFU/mL, and the amount of virus shed by infected fish (on average, greater than 10 6.5 PFU/h per fish) appeared sufficient to sustain a natural epizootic among schooling herring. Taken together, these data suggest that VHSV could be a significant limiting factor for populations of Pacific herring.

Journal of Aquatic Animal Health

Host and geographic range extensions of the North American strain of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus

Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) was isolated from populations of Pacific sardine Sardinops sagax from the coastal waters of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, and central and southern California, USA. The virus was also isolated from Pacific mackerel Scomber japonicus in southern California, from eulachon or smelt Thaleichthys pacificus , and surf smelt Hypomesus pretiosus pretiosus from Oregon, USA. Mortality and skin lesions typical of viral hemorrhagic septicemia in other marine fish species were observed among sardine in Canada and in a few surf smelt from Oregon, but the remaining isolates of VHSV were obtained from healthy appearing fish. The prevalence of VHSV among groups of apparently healthy sardine, mackerel and smelt ranged from 4 to 8% in California and Oregon. A greater prevalence of infection (58%) occurred in groups of sardine sampled in Canada that sustained a naturally occurring epidemic during 1998-99. A captive group of surf smelt in Oregon exhibited an 81% prevalence of infection with clinical signs in only a few fish. The new isolates were confirmed as North American VHSV and were closely related based on comparisons of the partial nucleotide sequence of the glycoprotein (G) gene. The VHSV isolates from sardine in Canada and California were the most closely related, differing from isolates obtained from other marine fish species and salmonids in British Columbia, Canada, Alaska and Washington, USA. These new virus isolations extend both the known hosts (sardine, mackerel and 2 species of smelt) and geographic range (Oregon and California, USA) of VHSV.

Diseases of Aquatic Organisms

Status of Cisco in Lake Superior in 2017

This report describes the status of fish species and their habitat in Lake Superior during the reporting period of 2012-2016 in response to achievement of fish community objectives (FCOs) established by fishery managers for the lake. The overarching goal for the FCOs continued to be met as the fish community remained diverse, self-regulating, dominated by indigenous species, and able to support sustainable fisheries, although further rehabilitation of certain fish is required. The Lake Superior Lakewide Action and Management Plan classified all habitat indicators for Lake Superior as good. Primary production and zooplankton abundance were stable during the reporting period and unchanged from the two previous reporting periods, indicating the lower food web is healthy. Abundance of the invertebrates Mysis diluviana and Diporeia spp. were stable during the reporting period, and Diporeia spp. density exceeded target levels defined in the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) abundance was lower than during the previous reporting period but was within the FCO target. Abundance of lean, siscowet, and humper forms of Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush) remained stable at levels seen in previous reporting periods. The FCO for non-indigenous salmonids was met as Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), Coho Salmon (O. kisutch), and steelhead/Rainbow Trout (O. mykiss) were being sustained by natural reproduction, and their abundance remained stable or increased from previous reporting periods. The FCO for Walleye (Sander vitreus) was not met, although populations showed signs of improvement since the previous reporting period. The fish community in littoral areas and embayments continued to be diverse and composed mostly of indigenous species. No new invasive species were found in Lake Superior during the reporting period. Degraded embayment and tributary habitats continued to prevent achievement of the FCOs for Brook Trout (S. fontinalis) and Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens). Barriers created for hydroelectric generation either blocked Lake Sturgeon from historically important spawning grounds or reduced stream flows necessary for its reproduction. In tributaries without man-made barriers, Lake Sturgeon was relatively abundant and appeared healthy. Attainment of the FCOs for Brook Trout and Lake Sturgeon will be challenging and can only be attained through development of large-scale management actions like those implemented for Lake Trout rehabilitation and Sea Lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control. Sea Lamprey-control expenditures doubled in 2016 from past levels and should result in suppression of the population closer to its FCO after 2016. The prey-fish FCO appears to have been met, but biomass of nearly all prey-fish species declined from that reported for the previous reporting period and has been on a downward trajectory since 2000. Predation by Lake Trout is probably to blame for the declining biomass of prey fish. Poor recruitment by Cisco (C. artedi) over the last 15 years is exacerbating the declines in prey-fish biomass because Lake Trout must compensate for the loss of Cisco by consuming other, less-abundant prey fish.

Lake Superior

State of Lake Superior ecosystem in 2017

This report describes the status of fish species and their habitat in Lake Superior during the reporting period of 2012-2016 in response to achievement of fish community objectives (FCOs) established by fishery managers for the lake. The overarching goal for the FCOs continued to be met as the fish community remained diverse, self-regulating, dominated by indigenous species, and able to support sustainable fisheries, although further rehabilitation of certain fish is required. The Lake Superior Lakewide Action and Management Plan classified all habitat indicators for Lake Superior as good. Primary production and zooplankton abundance were stable during the reporting period and unchanged from the two previous reporting periods, indicating the lower food web is healthy. Abundance of the invertebrates Mysis diluviana and Diporeia spp. were stable during the reporting period, and Diporeia spp. density exceeded target levels defined in the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) abundance was lower than during the previous reporting period but was within the FCO target. Abundance of lean, siscowet, and humper forms of Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush) remained stable at levels seen in previous reporting periods. The FCO for non-indigenous salmonids was met as Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), Coho Salmon (O. kisutch), and steelhead/Rainbow Trout (O. mykiss) were being sustained by natural reproduction, and their abundance remained stable or increased from previous reporting periods. The FCO for Walleye (Sander vitreus) was not met, although populations showed signs of improvement since the previous reporting period. The fish community in littoral areas and embayments continued to be diverse and composed mostly of indigenous species. No new invasive species were found in Lake Superior during the reporting period. Degraded embayment and tributary habitats continued to prevent achievement of the FCOs for Brook Trout (S. fontinalis) and Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens). Barriers created for hydroelectric generation either blocked Lake Sturgeon from historically important spawning grounds or reduced stream flows necessary for its reproduction. In tributaries without man-made barriers, Lake Sturgeon was relatively abundant and appeared healthy. Attainment of the FCOs for Brook Trout and Lake Sturgeon will be challenging and can only be attained through development of large-scale management actions like those implemented for Lake Trout rehabilitation and Sea Lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control. Sea Lamprey-control expenditures doubled in 2016 from past levels and should result in suppression of the population closer to its FCO after 2016. The prey-fish FCO appears to have been met, but biomass of nearly all prey-fish species declined from that reported for the previous reporting period and has been on a downward trajectory since 2000. Predation by Lake Trout is probably to blame for the declining biomass of prey fish. Poor recruitment by Cisco (C. artedi) over the last 15 years is exacerbating the declines in prey-fish biomass because Lake Trout must compensate for the loss of Cisco by consuming other, less-abundant prey fish.

Lake Superior

Monitoring and Evaluation of Environmental Flow Prescriptions for Five Demonstration Sites of the Sustainable Rivers Project

The Nature Conservancy has been working with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) through the Sustainable Rivers Project (SRP) to modify operations of dams to achieve ecological objectives in addition to meeting the authorized purposes of the dams. Modifications to dam operations are specified in terms of environmental flow prescriptions that quantify the magnitude, duration, frequency, and seasonal timing of releases to achieve specific ecological outcomes. Outcomes of environmental flow prescriptions implemented from 2002 to 2008 have been monitored and evaluated at demonstration sites in five rivers: Green River, Kentucky; Savannah River, Georgia/South Carolina; Bill Williams River, Arizona; Big Cypress Creek, Texas; and Middle Fork Willamette River, Oregon. Monitoring and evaluation have been accomplished through collaborative partnerships of federal and state agencies, universities, and nongovernmental organizations.

Open-File Report