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Suitability of river delta sediment as proppant, Missouri and Niobrara Rivers, Nebraska and South Dakota, 2015

Sediment management is a challenge faced by reservoir managers who have several potential options, including dredging, for mitigation of storage capacity lost to sedimentation. As sediment is removed from reservoir storage, potential use of the sediment for socioeconomic or ecological benefit could potentially defray some costs of its removal. Rivers that transport a sandy sediment load will deposit the sand load along a reservoir-headwaters reach where the current of the river slackens progressively as its bed approaches and then descends below the reservoir water level. Given a rare combination of factors, a reservoir deposit of alluvial sand has potential to be suitable for use as proppant for hydraulic fracturing in unconventional oil and gas development. In 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey began a program of researching potential sources of proppant sand from reservoirs, with an initial focus on the Missouri River subbasins that receive sand loads from the Nebraska Sand Hills. This report documents the methods and results of assessments of the suitability of river delta sediment as proppant for a pilot study area in the delta headwaters of Lewis and Clark Lake, Nebraska and South Dakota. Results from surface-geophysical surveys of electrical resistivity guided borings to collect 3.7-meter long cores at 25 sites on delta sandbars using the direct-push method to recover duplicate, 3.8-centimeter-diameter cores in April 2015. In addition, the U.S. Geological Survey collected samples of upstream sand sources in the lower Niobrara River valley. At the laboratory, samples were dried, weighed, washed, dried, and weighed again. Exploratory analysis of natural sand for determining its suitability as a proppant involved application of a modified subset of the standard protocols known as American Petroleum Institute (API) Recommended Practice (RP) 19C. The RP19C methods were not intended for exploration-stage evaluation of raw materials. Results for the washed samples are not directly applicable to evaluations of suitability for use as fracture sand because, except for particle-size distribution, the API-recommended practices for assessing proppant properties (sphericity, roundness, bulk density, and crush resistance) require testing of specific proppant size classes. An optical imaging particle-size analyzer was used to make measurements of particle-size distribution and particle shape. Measured samples were sieved to separate the dominant-size fraction, and the separated subsample was further tested for roundness, sphericity, bulk density, and crush resistance. For the bulk washed samples collected from the Missouri River delta, the geometric mean size averaged 0.27 millimeters (mm), 80 percent of the samples were predominantly sand in the API 40/70 size class, and 17 percent were predominantly sand in the API 70/140 size class. Distributions of geometric mean size among the four sandbar complexes were similar, but samples collected from sandbar complex B were slightly coarser sand than those from the other three complexes. The average geometric mean sizes among the four sandbar complexes ranged only from 0.26 to 0.30 mm. For 22 main-stem sampling locations along the lower Niobrara River, geometric mean size averaged 0.26 mm, an average of 61 percent was sand in the API 40/70 size class, and 28 percent was sand in the API 70/140 size class. Average composition for lower Niobrara River samples was 48 percent medium sand, 37 percent fine sand, and about 7 percent each very fine sand and coarse sand fractions. On average, samples were moderately well sorted. Particle shape and strength were assessed for the dominant-size class of each sample. For proppant strength, crush resistance was tested at a predetermined level of stress (34.5 megapascals [MPa], or 5,000 pounds-force per square inch). To meet the API minimum requirement for proppant, after the crush test not more than 10 percent of the tested sample should be finer than the precrush dominant-size class. For particle shape, all samples surpassed the recommended minimum criteria for sphericity and roundness, with most samples being well-rounded. For proppant strength, of 57 crush-resistance tested Missouri River delta samples of 40/70-sized sand, 23 (40 percent) were interpreted as meeting the minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa, or 5,000 pounds-force per square inch. Of 12 tested samples of 70/140-sized sand, 9 (75 percent) of the Missouri River delta samples had less than 10 percent fines by volume following crush testing, achieving the minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa. Crush resistance for delta samples was strongest at sandbar complex A, where 67 percent of tested samples met the 10-percent fines criterion at the 34.5-MPa threshold. This frequency was higher than was indicated by samples from sandbar complexes B, C, and D that had rates of 50, 46, and 42 percent, respectively. The group of sandbar complex A samples also contained the largest percentages of samples dominated by the API 70/140 size class, which overall had a higher percentage of samples meeting the minimum criterion compared to samples dominated by coarser size classes; however, samples from sandbar complex A that had the API 40/70 size class tested also had a higher rate for meeting the minimum criterion (57 percent) than did samples from sandbar complexes B, C, and D (50, 43, and 40 percent, respectively). For samples collected along the lower Niobrara River, of the 25 tested samples of 40/70-sized sand, 9 samples passed the API minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa, but only 3 samples passed the more-stringent criterion of 8 percent postcrush fines. All four tested samples of 70/140 sand passed the minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa, with postcrush fines percentage of at most 4.1 percent. For two reaches of the lower Niobrara River, where hydraulic sorting was energized artificially by the hydraulic head drop at and immediately downstream from Spencer Dam, suitability of channel deposits for potential use as fracture sand was confirmed by test results. All reach A washed samples were well-rounded and had sphericity scores above 0.65, and samples for 80 percent of sampled locations met the crush-resistance criterion at the 34.5-MPa stress level. A conservative lower-bound estimate of sand volume in the reach A deposits was about 86,000 cubic meters. All reach B samples were well-rounded but sphericity averaged 0.63, a little less than the average for upstream reaches A and SP. All four samples tested passed the crush-resistance test at 34.5 MPa. Of three reach B sandbars, two had no more than 3 percent fines after the crush test, surpassing more stringent criteria for crush resistance that accept a maximum of 6 percent fines following the crush test for the API 70/140 size class. Relative to the crush-resistance test results for the API 40/70 size fraction of two samples of mine output from Loup River settling-basin dredge spoils near Genoa, Nebr., four of five reach A sample locations compared favorably. The four samples had increases in fines composition of 1.6–5.9 percentage points, whereas fines in the two mine-output samples increased by an average 6.8 percentage points.

Nebraska, South Dakota

Characterizing operational signatures of reservoirs with the SWOT satellite by comparing natural lake and reservoir dynamics

Due to a lack of management operations data, hydrological models may represent reservoirs as natural lakes, leading to poor discharge predictions in regulated basins. To parse seasonal operational signatures, we compare the dynamics of natural lake and reservoir systems across North America using Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite observations and derived discharge estimates. Overall, reservoirs and their adjacent river reaches exhibit significantly greater variability (in standard deviation) than their natural counterparts across almost all SWOT observed (e.g. water surface elevation) and inferred (e.g. discharge) variables. Natural lakes show strong same-day correlations between inflow and outflow discharge (median Spearman R = 0.8), whereas 76% of reservoirs exhibit maximum correlation when outflow is lagged, suggesting operations buffer seasonal flow variability. Our findings indicate operations not only affect reservoir dynamics themselves but also have upstream and downstream consequences, which, when integrated into models, will offer more realistic hydrologic conditions.

Environmental Research Letters

Watershed influences and in-lake processes - A regional-scale approach to monitoring a water-supply reservoir, Lake Houston near Houston, Texas

Created in 1954 by an impoundment on the San Jacinto River, Lake Houston currently (2008) supplies about 20 percent of the total source water for the city of Houston. Houston historically has relied on ground water as the major source of supply. As a result of regulations to limit ground-water withdrawals because of associated land subsidence (effective in 2010), the lake will become the primary source of water supply for the city in the future. Since 1983 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the City of Houston, has collected water-quality and lake-level data at Lake Houston, as well as discharge and intermittent water-quality data at its major inflowing tributaries. Previous studies indicate that Lake Houston is shallow, eutrophic, light limited and has a variable hydrologic regime with water residence times ranging from 12 hours to 400 days. Spring Creek, a tributary that drains the western, more urban, part of the Lake Houston watershed, contributes more sediment and nutrients than East Fork San Jacinto River, a tributary that drains the more rural, eastern part of the watershed. This fact sheet explains the importance of monitoring for management of the resource and describes ongoing research in the Lake Houston watershed by the USGS and the City.

Texas

Hydrologic and human aspects of the 1976-77 drought

The drought of 1976-77 was the most severe in at least 50 years in many parts of the United States. Record low amounts of rainfall, snowfall, and runoff, and increased withdrawals of ground water were prevalent. The use of carry-over storage in reservoirs during 1976 maintained streamflow at near normal levels, but some reservoirs went dry or dropped below the outlet works in 1977. Carry-over storage in the fall of 1977 was very low. Ground-water levels were at or near record low levels in many aquifers, hundreds of wells went dry, and thousands of wells were drilled. Yet no wide-spread deterioration of ground-water quality was reported. Water-quality problems arose in some streams and lakes, but most were localized and of short duration. Water rationing became a way of life in numerous areas , and water was hauled in many rural areas and to a few towns. Water use was affected by legal agreements or decisions, some of which were modified for the duration of the drought, and by the inability of water managers to efficiently manage surface and ground waters as one resource under existing law. There are still many drought related problems to solve and many challenges to be met before the next drought occurs. The advancement of techniques in many fields of endeavor in recent years plus ongoing, planned, and proposed research on drought and the risks involved are promising thrusts that should make it easier to cope with the next drought. (Kosco-USGS)

Professional Paper

Migrated hydrocarbons in exposure of Maastrichtian nonmarine strata near Saddle Mountain, lower Cook Inlet, Alaska

Magoon and others (1980) described an 83-meter- (272-foot-) thick succession of Maastrichtian (Upper Cretaceous) conglomerate, sandstone, mudstone, and coal exposed on the south side of an unnamed drainage, approximately 3 kilometers (1.8 miles) east of Saddle Mountain in lower Cook Inlet (figs. 1 and 2). The initial significance of this exposure was that it was the first reported occurrence of nonmarine rocks of this age in outcrop in lower Cook Inlet, which helped constrain the Late Cretaceous paleogeography of the area and provided important information on the composition of latest Mesozoic sandstones in the basin. The Saddle Mountain section is thought to be an outcrop analog for Upper Cretaceous nonmarine strata penetrated in the OCS Y-0097 #1 (Raven) well, located approximately 40 kilometers (25 miles) to the south–southeast in Federal waters (fig. 1). Atlantic Richfield Company (ARCO) drilled the Raven well in 1980 and encountered oil-stained rocks and moveable liquid hydrocarbons between the depths of 1,760 and 3,700 feet. Completion reports on file with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM; formerly Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, and prior to 2010, U.S. Minerals Management Service) either show flow rates of zero or do not mention flow rates. A fluid analysis report on file with BOEM suggests that a wireline tool sampled some oil beneath a 2,010-foot diesel cushion during the fl ow test of the 3,145–3,175 foot interval, but the recorded fl ow rate was still zero (Kirk Sherwood, written commun., January 9, 2012). Further delineation and evaluation of the apparent accumulation was never performed and the well was plugged and abandoned. As part of a 5-year comprehensive evaluation of the geology and petroleum systems of the Cook Inlet forearc basin, the Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys obtained a research permit from the National Park Service to access the relatively poorly understood ‘Saddle Mountain exposure’ that is located in the Lake Clark National Park and Preserve. This work was done in cooperation with the Alaska Division of Oil & Gas and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research geologists. This report expands on Magoon and others’ (1980) description of the exposure, presents new data on sandstone composition and reservoir quality, presents new geochemical data on petroleum extracted from the outcropping sandstone, and describes oil-bearing correlative strata penetrated by the Raven well. Although the exposure is more than a kilometer (0.6 mile) east of Saddle Mountain (fig. 2), in this report we variously refer to it as the Saddle Mountain succession, Saddle Mountain section, or the rocks at Saddle Mountain underlain by Upper Jurassic strata of the Naknek Formation.

Alaska

Assessing risk for enhanced cyanobacteria, phytoplankton, and pathogens with changes in water level regime with potential application to Lake Powell and Lake Mead: A mixed methods literature review

Water levels in freshwater reservoirs worldwide are changing due to altered climate, management practices, and increasing human demand for water. In the desert southwestern USA, managers are considering significant changes to reservoir operation strategies and water management in response to consumptive use and ongoing drought. To inform reservoir management decision-making, we reviewed current peer-reviewed literature to identify the effects of decreasing or increasing water level on phytoplankton, cyanobacteria, Escherichia coli , and Naegleria spp. We identified 34 studies containing 42 individual waterbodies that investigated the effects of water level increases or decreases on phytoplankton or cyanobacteria. We found that water level decreases resulted in a higher likelihood of increased cyanobacteria, and that phytoplankton were more likely to decrease in response to water level increases. Most of the waterbodies included in the literature review were eutrophic or hypereutrophic, underscoring the need to explore the effects of water level fluctuations on oligotrophic systems. We only identified five studies on E. coli through our review, and no studies on Naegleria spp. We supplemented our review with regional white papers and case studies within the Colorado River Basin and the Rio Grande River Basin to highlight relevant research. Prior and ongoing research highlights the need to explore impacts of water level fluctuations on phytoplankton and cyanobacteria to guide future management decision-making.

Arizona, Utah, Nevada

Effects of climate and irrigation on GRACE-based estimates of water storage changes in major US aquifers

Understanding climate and human impacts on water storage is critical for sustainable water-resources management. Here we assessed climate and human drivers of total water storage (TWS) variability from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites compared with drought severity and irrigation water use in 14 major aquifers in the United States. Results show that long-term variability in TWS tracked by GRACE satellites is dominated by interannual variability in most of the 14 major US aquifers. Low TWS trends in the humid eastern U.S. are linked to low drought intensity. Although irrigation pumpage in the humid Mississippi Embayment aquifer exceeded that in the semi-arid California Central Valley, a surprising lack of TWS depletion in the Mississippi Embayment aquifer is attributed to extensive streamflow capture. Marked storage depletion in the semi-arid southwestern Central Valley and south-central High Plains totaled ∼90 km 3 , about three times greater than the capacity of Lake Mead, the largest U.S. reservoir. Depletion in the Central Valley was driven by long-term droughts (⩽5 yr) amplified by switching from mostly surface water to groundwater irrigation. Low or slightly rising TWS trends in the northwestern (Columbia and Snake Basins) US are attributed to dampening drought impacts by mostly surface water irrigation. GRACE satellite data highlight synergies between climate and irrigation, resulting in little impact on TWS in the humid east, amplified TWS depletion in the semi-arid southwest and southcentral US, and dampened TWS deletion in the northwest and north central US Sustainable groundwater management benefits from conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater, inefficient surface water irrigation promoting groundwater recharge, efficient groundwater irrigation minimizing depletion, and increasing managed aquifer recharge. This study has important implications for sustainable water development in many regions globally.

Environmental Research Letters

Science needs for determining the effects of climate change on harmful algal blooms in the southeastern United States

The Southeastern United States has many lakes, streams, and reservoirs that serve as important drinking water sources with recreational, agricultural, and ecological uses. However, harmful algal blooms (HABs) are becoming more common in these waters, causing health issues for humans and animals. HABs have been listed as a contaminant of emerging concern, and the magnitude, frequency, and duration of HABs appear to be increasing at the global scale. While it is well known that nutrients stimulate algae growth, it is not clear how climate change and other parameters stimulate the development of toxin production by HABs. The scientific literature describes parameters, such as storm occurrence, temperature, dissolved metals, erosion of soils, increasing length of growing season, discharge, and hydroperiod, that may affect algae growth and toxin production. Climate and hydrologic models address many of the physical and environmental parameters that influence HABs, but no climate models directly address HABs. This report compiles information from the existing literature pertaining to HABs and the modeling and forecasting of HABS. This compilation is done through the incorporation of climate change models. HAB research that involves climate change will require multiple disciplines that bring together ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists, engineers, economists, and new technology. Resource managers could use geographic data about the occurrence and distribution of HABs to develop models that identify waterbodies more vulnerable to HAB events. Development of such models will require teams capable of integrating biological, chemical, and physical factors. Model development will require additional research that can resolve anthropogenic and climate-related environmental factors to identify trends in freshwater HABs. The complexity and interconnectedness of the parameters that influence HAB occurrences will make model development challenging and require rigorous regional calibration.

Open-File Report

A simplified water temperature model for the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam

Glen Canyon Dam, located on the Colorado River in northern Arizona, has affected the physical, biological and cultural resources of the river downstream in Grand Canyon. One of the impacts to the downstream physical environment that has important implications for the aquatic ecosystem is the transformation of the thermal regime from highly variable seasonally to relatively constant year-round, owing to hypolimnetic releases from the upstream reservoir, Lake Powell. Because of the perceived impacts on the downstream aquatic ecosystem and native fish communities, the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program has considered modifications to flow releases and release temperatures designed to increase downstream temperatures. Here, we present a new model of monthly average water temperatures below Glen Canyon Dam designed for first-order, relatively simple evaluation of various alternative dam operations. The model is based on a simplified heat-exchange equation, and model parameters are estimated empirically. The model predicts monthly average temperatures at locations up to 421 km downstream from the dam with average absolute errors less than 0.58C for the dataset considered. The modelling approach used here may also prove useful for other systems, particularly below large dams where release temperatures are substantially out of equilibrium with meteorological conditions. We also present some examples of how the model can be used to evaluate scenarios for the operation of Glen Canyon Dam.

River Research and Applications

Distribution of adult Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in relation to water temperatures, Lake Scanewa, Cowlitz River, Washington, 2012

A trap-and-haul program is operated to move anadromous Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) around dams and reservoirs in the Cowlitz River basin, Washington. The primary release site for adult fish is in Lake Scanewa, a small reservoir created by Cowlitz Falls Dam, the uppermost dam in the basin. Releases in the reservoir are terminated when reservoir water temperature is 16 degrees Celsius (°C) or greater to reduce the risk of exposing adult salmon and steelhead ( O. mykiss ) to thermal conditions known to be stressful for these species. When the water temperature limit is reached, fish are released into the Cowlitz and Cispus Rivers upstream of the reservoir. Concerns have been raised about fish presence in the reservoir during warm conditions, so an empirical evaluation of water temperatures selected by spring Chinook salmon ( O. tshawytscha ) in Lake Scanewa was requested by resource managers. We conducted the evaluation during June–October 2012. Water temperature in the reservoir was measured using a series of thermographs combined with daily measurements at the Cowlitz Falls Fish Facility. Temperature-use data were collected from 50 adult hatchery-origin spring Chinook salmon tagged with temperature-sensing radio transmitters and released into the reservoir. This approach yielded a total of 930,056 individual temperature-use records in the reservoir during the study. Tagged fish occupied water temperatures less than 16 °C during most of the study period. Water temperatures ranged from 5 to 18.5 °C during the study, peaking in mid-August. Overall, about 25 percent of the detections of tagged fish were in water temperatures in the 16–20 °C range. In August, tagged fish detections in the 18–20 °C range comprised 13 percent of the total detections, and the remainder of the detections were in water less than or equal to 17 °C. Results from the study indicate that adult hatchery-origin spring Chinook salmon were able to locate and use water temperatures in the reservoir less than levels associated with stress. However, we also observed that thermal conditions in the reservoir were cool relative to most other years during 2008–16. Additional research may be warranted to better understand thermal exposure of adult spring Chinook salmon during warmer years.

Washington

Characterization of the genetic structure of four sucker species in the Klamath River. Final Report

Four species of suckers (family Catostomidae) inhabit the Klamath River Basin of Oregon and California: Lost River suckers (LRS; Deltistes luxatus), shortnose suckers (SNS; Chasmistes brevirostris), Klamath largescale suckers (KLS; Catostomus snyderi), and Klamath smallscale suckers (KSS; Catostomus rimiculus). All but Klamath smallscale suckers are endemic and restricted to the Klamath River Basin where they occur sympatrically in large lakes and reservoirs, including the Lost River and Klamath Lake subbasins (Figure 1; USFWS 2012). Population declines, primarily due to loss or degradation of spawning, rearing, and adult habitat, have resulted in Lost River and shortnose suckers being listed as endangered throughout their entire range under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (USFWS 1988). Continued population declines coupled with failed adult recruitment prompted the USFWS to initiate an assisted rearing program in 2015 as a part of their recovery strategy (Childress et al. 2019). The program was designed to maintain as much genetic diversity as possible while improving recruitment by averting high early life stage mortality (Day et al. 2017). However, while assisted rearing efforts are targeted towards endangered LRS and SNS, species differentiation of larval and juvenile suckers is problematic in the Klamath River Basin. This, in turn, complicates the management of these species as well as the population modeling used to evaluate recovery efforts. Maintaining as much as possible of the genetic resources, or “evolutionary legacy” of a species is a goal common to conservation and endangered species recovery strategies. Inappropriate assumptions regarding species’ evolutionary lineages, and genetic characteristics may lead to the mismanagement of an endangered species through a failure to recognize and appropriately manage species boundaries and genetic population structure. Despite a considerable amount of research, the partitioning of genetic diversity within and among the four species of suckers in the Klamath River Basin remains unclear. Previously developed genetic markers are effective at differentiating some species, but fail to effectively differentiate all four species of suckers in the basin (Tranah et al. 2001; Wagman 2003; Tranah and May 2006; Hoy and Ostberg 2015; Dowling et al. 2016). Peer-reviewed publications describing the morphological characteristics of (Markle et al. 2005) and genetic relationships among (Dowling et al. 2016; Tranah and May 2006) Klamath River Basin suckers have not resolved uncertainties regarding the systematic relationships among the four currently recognized taxa. Specifically, genetic and morphological data generally support LRS and KSS as being distinct entities, but genetic evidence does not support a distinction between KLS and SNS. All three publications above refer to unpublished information regarding ecological differences between KLS and SNS as evidence to support the existence of two entities. However, the authors also acknowledge that overlap in morphological characters (Markle et al. 2005) and a lack of genetic differentiation (Dowling et al. 2016; Tranah and May 2006) between KLS and SNS raises the question of their specific identity. This is particularly problematic in the Lost River subbasin, where overlap in morphological characters between KLS and SNS is greatest. In our opinion, the basis of the strong genetic similarity between KLS and SNS has not been resolved. Morphological characters mostly support the existence of two distinct species, while genetic characters do not (i.e., genetic divergence between KLS and SNS is less than divergence among populations of each species; (Smith et al. 2015). Some have suggested that introgressive hybridization may have resulted in a lack of genetic differentiation between KLS and SNS and a breakdown of monophyletic species (Dowling et al. 2016; Tranah and May 2006), and that this hybridization may be an important process in

California, Oregon

Inland waters

1. The total flux of carbon—which includes gaseous emissions, lateral flux, and burial—from inland waters across the conterminous United States (CONUS) and Alaska is 193 teragrams of carbon (Tg C) per year. The dominant pathway for carbon movement out of inland waters is the emission of carbon dioxide gas across water surfaces of streams, rivers, and lakes (110.1 Tg C per year), a flux not identified in the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR1; CCSP 2007). Second to gaseous emissions are the lateral fluxes of carbon through rivers to coastal environments (59.8 Tg C per year). Total carbon burial in lakes and reservoirs represents the smallest flux for CONUS and Alaska (22.5 Tg C per year) (medium confidence). 2. Based on estimates presented herein, the carbon flux from inland waters is now understood to be four times larger than estimates presented in SOCCR1. The total flux of carbon from inland waters across North America is estimated to be 507 Tg C per year based on a modeling approach that integrates high-resolution U.S. data and continental-scale estimates of water area, discharge, and carbon emissions. This estimate represents a weighted average of 24 grams of carbon per m2 per year of continental area exported and removed through inland waters in North America (low confidence). 3. Future research can address critical knowledge gaps and uncertainties related to inland water carbon fluxes. This chapter, for example, does not include methane emissions, which cannot be calculated as precisely as other carbon fluxes because of significant data gaps. Key to reducing uncertainties in estimated carbon fluxes is increased temporal resolution of carbon concentration and discharge sampling to provide better representations of storms and other extreme events for estimates of total inland water carbon fluxes. Improved spatial resolution of sampling also could potentially highlight anthropogenic influences on the quantity and quality of carbon fluxes in inland waters and provide information for land-use planning and management of water resources. Finally, uncertainties could likely be reduced if the community of scientists working in inland waters establishes and adopts standard measurement techniques and protocols similar to those maintained through collaborative efforts of the International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project and relevant governmental agencies from participating nations.

Book chapter

Impact of wildfire on levels of mercury in forested watershed systems: Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

Atmospheric deposition of mercury to remote lakes in mid-continental and eastern North America has increased approximately threefold since the mid-1800s (Swain and others, 1992; Fitzgerald and others, 1998; Engstrom and others, 2007). As a result, concerns for human and wildlife health related to mercury contamination have become widespread. Despite an apparent recent decline in atmospheric deposition of mercury in many areas of the Upper Midwest (Engstrom and Swain, 1997; Engstrom and others, 2007), lakes in which fish contain levels of mercury deemed unacceptable for human consumption and possibly unacceptable for fish-consuming wildlife are being detected with increasing frequency. In northern Minnesota, Voyageurs National Park (VNP) (fig. 1) protects a series of southern boreal lakes and wetlands situated on bedrock of the Precambrian Canadian Shield. Mercury contamination has become a significant resource issue within VNP as high concentrations of mercury in loons, bald eagle eaglets, grebes, northern pike, and other species of wildlife and fish have been found. The two most mercury-contaminated lakes in Minnesota, measured as methylmercury in northern pike ( Esox lucius ), are in VNP. Recent multidisciplinary U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research demonstrated that the bulk of the mercury in lake waters, soils, and fish in VNP results from atmospheric deposition (Wiener and others, 2006). The study by Wiener and others (2006) showed that the spatial distribution of mercury in watershed soils, lake waters, and age-1 yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) within the Park was highly variable. The majority of factors correlated for this earlier study suggested that mercury concentrations in lake waters and age-1 yellow perch reflected the influence of ecosystem processes that affected within-lake microbial production and abundance of methylmercury (Wiener and others, 2006), while the distribution of mercury in watershed soils seemed to be partially dependent on forest disturbance, especially the historic forest fire pattern (Woodruff and Cannon, 2002). Forest fire has an essential role in the forest ecosystems of VNP (Heinselman, 1996). Because resource and land managers need to integrate both natural wildfire and prescribed fire in management plans, the potential influence of fire on an element as sensitive to the environment as mercury becomes a critical part of their decisionmaking. A number of recent studies have shown that while fire does have a significant impact on mercury at the landscape level, the observed effects of fire on aquatic environments are highly variable and unpredictable (Caldwell and others, 2000; Garcia and Carrigan, 2000; Kelly and others, 2006; Nelson and others, 2007). Caldwell and others (2000) described an increase in methylmercury in reservoir sediments resulting from mobilization and transport of charred vegetative matter following a fire in New Mexico. Krabbenhoft and Fink (2000) attributed increases in total mercury concentrations in young-of-the-year fish in the Florida Everglades to release of mercury resulting from peat oxidation following fires. A fivefold increase in whole-body mercury accumulation by rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) following a fire in Alberta, Canada, apparently resulted from increased nutrient concentrations that enhanced productivity and restructured the food web of a lake within the fire’s burn footprint (Kelly and others, 2006). For this study, we determined the short-term effects of forest fire on mercury concentrations in terrestrial and aquatic environments in VNP by comparing and contrasting mercury concentrations in forest soils, lake waters, and age-1 yellow perch for a burned watershed and an adjacent lake, with similar samples from watersheds and lakes with no fire activity (control watersheds and lakes). The concentration of total mercury in whole, 1-year-old yellow perch serves as a good biological indicator for monitoring trends in methylmercury concentrations in food webs of lakes in North America (Wiener and others, 2007). With a limited gape, age-1 yellow perch that hatched the previous year and resided in a lake for 1 year feed largely on zooplankton and small benthic invertebrates. Thus, age-1 yellow perch provide a baseline for methylmercury concentrations for individual lakes that can be compared across spatial areas. The nine appendixes that accompany this report contain the complete datasets for soils, lake waters, and age-1 yellow perch collected for this study. This report uses data from these three media to provide a framework for evaluating short-term effects of fire on mercury in forested soils and possible effects of the mobilization of mercury from soils on lake water quality and aquatic health.

Minnesota

Successful water quality monitoring: The right combination of intent, measurement, interpretation, and a cooperating ecosystem

Water quality monitoring is invaluable to ensure compliance with regulations, detect trends or patterns, and advance ecological understanding. However, monitoring typically measures only a few characteristics in a small fraction of a large and complex system, and thus the information contained in monitoring data depends upon which features of the ecosystem are actually captured by the measurements. Difficulties arise when these data contain something other than intended, but this can be minimized if the purpose of the sampling is clear, and the sampling design, measurements, and data interpretations are all compatible with this purpose. The monitoring program and data interpretation must also be properly matched to the structure and functioning of the system. Obtaining this match is sometimes an iterative process that demands a close link between research and monitoring. This paper focuses on water quality monitoring that is intended to track trends in aquatic resources and advance ecological understanding. It includes examples from three monitoring programs and a simulation exercise that illustrate problems that arise when the information content of monitoring data differs from expectation. The examples show (1) how inconsistencies among, or lack of information about, the basic elements of a monitoring program (intent, design, measurement, interpretation, and the monitored system) can produce a systematic difference (bias) between monitoring measurements and sampling intent or interpretation, and (2) that bias is not just a statistical consideration, but an insidious problem that can undermine the scientific integrity of a monitoring program. Some general suggestions are provided and hopefully these examples will help those engaged in water quality monitoring to enhance and protect the value of their monitoring investment.

Lake and Reservoir Management

Trends in water quality of selected streams and reservoirs used for water supply in the Triangle area of North Carolina, 1989–2013

As the population of the Triangle area in central North Carolina increases, the demand for good quality drinking water from streams and lakes within the upper Neuse and upper Cape Fear River Basins also increases. The Triangle area includes Raleigh, Cary, Research Triangle Park, Durham, Chapel Hill, and the surrounding communities. The U.S. Geological Survey examined temporal trends in water quality for 13 stream and 8 reservoir sites in the two basins on the basis of data collected during 1989–2013. Trends were analyzed using a fitted time-series model that accommodated for shifting trends and variations in streamflow at multiple time scales. Seventeen water-quality properties and constituents were evaluated, including specific conductance and major ions, nutrients, and organic carbon. Suspended solids and suspended sediment were examined at stream sites; chlorophyll a and Secchi transparency were examined at lake sites. The investigation identified considerable changes in population, land cover, streamflow, and selected water-quality characteristics in the study area over the 25-year period. Specific conductance and concentrations of calcium, magnesium, potassium, sodium, and chloride tended to increase throughout the study area. Area-wide increases were also observed for organic nitrogen. Trends for other water-quality constituents varied on a more site-specific basis because of local watershed influences such as changes to wastewater-treatment processes and substantial shifts from rural to urban land use. Water quality is influenced by multiple, often confounding factors, and thus may change in a non-uniform manner over time. Long-term monitoring is critical for tracking these trends and ensuring resiliency of water supplies for the future. Results from this study may promote the understanding of water-quality response to a growing population and land-cover changes and can assist water-resource managers in the Triangle area in tracking progress toward water-quality goals.

North Carolina

Simulation of Ground-Water Flow in the Middle Rio Grande Basin Between Cochiti and San Acacia, New Mexico

This report describes a three-dimensional, finite difference, ground-water-flow model of the Santa Fe Group aquifer system within the Middle Rio Grande Basin between Cochiti and San Acacia, New Mexico. The aquifer system is composed of the Santa Fe Group of middle Tertiary to Quaternary age and post-Santa Fe Group valley and basin-fill deposits of Quaternary age. Population increases in the basin since the 1940's have caused dramatic increases in ground-water withdrawals from the aquifer system, resulting in large ground-water-level declines. Because the Rio Grande is hydraulically connected to the aquifer system, these ground-water withdrawals have also decreased flow in the Rio Grande. Concern about water resources in the basin led to the development of a research plan for the basin focused on the hydrologic interaction of ground water and surface water (McAda, D.P., 1996, Plan of study to quantify the hydrologic relation between the Rio Grande and the Santa Fe Group aquifer system near Albuquerque, central New Mexico: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 96-4006, 58 p.). A multiyear research effort followed, funded and conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies (Bartolino, J.R., and Cole, J.C., 2002, Ground-water resources of the Middle Rio Grande Basin, New Mexico: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1222, 132 p.). The modeling work described in this report incorporates the results of much of this work and is the culmination of this multiyear study. The purpose of the model is (1) to integrate the components of the ground-water-flow system, including the hydrologic interaction between the surface-water systems in the basin, to better understand the geohydrology of the basin and (2) to provide a tool to help water managers plan for and administer the use of basin water resources. The aquifer system is represented by nine model layers extending from the water table to the pre-Santa Fe Group basement rocks, as much as 9,000 feet below the NGVD 29. The horizontal grid contains 156 rows and 80 columns, each spaced 3,281 feet (1 kilometer) apart. The model simulates predevelopment steady-state conditions and historical transient conditions from 1900 to March 2000 in 1 steady-state and 52 historical stress periods. Average annual conditions are simulated prior to 1990, and seasonal (winter and irrigation season) conditions are simulated from 1990 to March 2000. The model simulates mountain-front, tributary, and subsurface recharge; canal, irrigation, and septic-field seepage; and ground-water withdrawal as specified-flow boundaries. The model simulates the Rio Grande, riverside drains, Jemez River, Jemez Canyon Reservoir, Cochiti Lake, riparian evapotranspiration, and interior drains as head-dependent flow boundaries. Hydrologic properties representing the Santa Fe Group aquifer system in the ground-water-flow model are horizontal hydraulic conductivity, vertical hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, and specific yield. Variable horizontal anisotropy is applied to the model so that hydraulic conductivity in the north-south direction (along model columns) is greater than hydraulic conductivity in the east-west direction (along model rows) over much of the model. This pattern of horizontal anisotropy was simulated to reflect the generally north-south orientation of faulting over much of the modeled area. With variable horizontal anisotropy, horizontal hydraulic conductivities in the model range from 0.05 to 60 feet per day. Vertical hydraulic conductivity is specified in the model as a horizontal to vertical anisotropy ratio (calculated to be 150:1 in the model) multiplied by the horizontal hydraulic conductivity along rows. Specific storage was estimated to be 2 x 10-6 per foot in the model. Specific yield was estimated to be 0.2 (dimensionless). A ground-water-flow model is a tool that can integrate the complex interactions of hydrologic boundary conditions, aquifer materials

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Water quality-based risk assessment for zebra mussel establishment: A case study of single- and multiple-factor methods in northern temperate lakes

Most previous research has used an individual water quality parameter, such as calcium, to predict likelihood of zebra mussel establishment in lakes; we employed two multiple-factor methods, our own susceptibility index for zebra mussels in lakes (SIZL) and aragonite saturation state, to evaluate the risk of mussel establishment. Thirty sites in Voyageurs National Park (VNP) were sampled in 2023 for water quality conditions, including those that play a key role in mussel survivability. These results were combined with existing data sets to determine which lakes, and which locations within the larger lakes, are at greatest risk for zebra mussel establishment. Results for VNP indicate that physical lake characteristics and water quality conditions (both single- and multiple-factor methods) put the large, interconnected lakes in VNP at greater risk of zebra mussel establishment than the smaller interior lakes. All sampled interior lakes had alkalinity and calcium concentrations below thresholds conducive to zebra mussel establishment, although Mukooda and O’Leary lakes were identified as the most at-risk interior lakes. The area in the large lakes most at risk was Sullivan Bay in Kabetogama Lake, where water quality conditions were found to be conducive to zebra mussel establishment. Results from this study could be used by resource managers to focus additional inspections, decontaminations, and regulations to protect the most at-risk lakes. These multiple-factor methods may be useful in determining the risk of zebra mussel infestation in other water bodies.

Minnesota

Updates to CE-QUAL-W2 models for select U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoirs in the Willamette Valley Project and an inter-reservoir reach of the Middle Fork Willamette River, northwestern Oregon

Mechanistic models capable of simulating hydrodynamics and water temperature in rivers and reservoirs are valuable tools for investigating thermal conditions and their relation to dam operations and streamflow in river basins where upstream water storage and management decisions have an important influence on river reaches with threatened fish populations. In particular, models allow managers to investigate how new, untried operations or hypothetical structures might influence streamflow and temperature conditions downstream. CE-QUAL-W2 is a two-dimensional (laterally averaged) hydrodynamic water-quality model that has previously been used to investigate the downstream effects of dam operations and other anthropogenic influences on stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin in northwestern Oregon, a region with two populations of fish species designated as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. By linking CE-QUAL-W2 river models to models of upstream, large Willamette Valley Project dams and reservoirs, these models can be used to investigate how dam operations at individual dams can influence streamflow and thermal conditions in downstream river reaches as an integrated system. Integrated model simulations that include the large dams and reservoirs linked to downstream river reaches can help managers develop a better understanding of tradeoffs associated with potential retrofits or operational changes across the multipurpose dams in the Willamette Valley Project, the effect of dam management on downstream tributaries and the Willamette River, and the resulting potential effect on threatened fish populations and habitat conditions. River models capable of simulating river corridors downstream from U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams were previously updated and integrated to simulate conditions that occurred from March through October of 2011 (a cool and wet year), 2015 (a hot and dry year), and 2016 (a moderately hot and dry year) using CE-QUAL-W2 version 4.2. These river models encompass the following: Coast Fork Willamette and Middle Fork Willamette Rivers, the Row River, and Fall Creek downstream from Cottage Grove, Dexter, Dorena, and Fall Creek Dams, respectively; South Fork McKenzie River downstream from Cougar Dam; McKenzie River downstream from its confluence with the South Fork McKenzie River; South Santiam River downstream from Foster Dam; North Santiam River downstream from Big Cliff Dam; and Willamette River from its start at the confluence of the Middle Fork Willamette and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.0; near West Linn, Oregon). This report documents model modifications, boundary condition data sources or estimation methods, and goodness-of-fit statistics for six CE-QUAL-W2 reservoir models and one river model upstream from the existing river models. These models simulate (1) Hills Creek Lake; (2) Lookout Point Lake and Dexter Reservoir on the Middle Fork Willamette River; (3) the Middle Fork Willamette River reach between Hills Creek Dam upstream and Lookout Point Lake downstream; (4) Cougar Reservoir on the South Fork McKenzie River; (5) Green Peter Lake on the Middle Santiam River and Foster Lake on the South Santiam River; and (6) Detroit Lake and (7) Big Cliff Reservoir on the North Santiam River. These CE-QUAL-W2 models were built by a variety of researchers to simulate a range of conditions in past years; this report documents their upgrade to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) edition 7 of version 4.2 of CE-QUAL-W2 and updates each model to simulate conditions from January through December of 2011, 2015, and 2016. Also included in this report is an explanation of modifications to the CE-QUAL-W2 source code that constitute USGS edition 7 of CE-QUAL-W2 version 4.2. Each of the models described in this report can be run in isolation or linked to downstream models as a “system model” to simulate conditions in tributaries and (or) in the Willamette Valley Project as a whole. As part of the model updates described in this report, some model parameters were adjusted to improve stability or decrease model error, and boundary conditions including meteorological, hydrologic, and temperature inputs were developed and updated for model years 2011, 2015, and 2016, as necessary. In some cases, the data sources used to drive previous model versions were no longer available, which required the development and checking of new data sources or estimation techniques. Goodness-of-fit statistics for outflow from the dams and in simulated river reaches generally show a good model fit, with the models simulating subdaily water temperatures at most comparable locations with a mean absolute error of generally less than 1 degree Celsius (°C) and a reasonably low bias. Model simulation of the thermal vertical profiles in each reservoir also produced an overall mean absolute error of generally less than 1 °C for all 3 years, with the exception of the Hills Creek Lake Model and the Cougar Reservoir Model in years when the reservoirs did not fill (2015 and 2016). Both of these models have known calibration issues and tend to be sensitive to the choice of certain structural parameters in the model. Overall, the calibration process was focused on obtaining model settings that led to realistic water temperature predictions in all 3 years (2011, 2015, and 2016) without over-calibrating specifically to any single year. A complete investigation of model error for these reservoir submodels was beyond the scope of this investigation but could be undertaken in the future if better model performance for these two reservoirs is desired.

Oregon