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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Mercury accumulation in periphyton of eight river ecosystems

In 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency studied total mercury (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations in periphyton at eight rivers in the United States in coordination with a larger USGS study on mercury cycling in rivers. Periphyton samples were collected using trace element clean techniques and NAWQA sampling protocols in spring and fall from targeted habitats (streambed surface-sediment, cobble, or woody snags) at each river site. A positive correlation was observed between concentrations of THg and MeHg in periphyton (r2 = 0.88, in log-log space). Mean MeHg and THg concentrations in surface-sediment periphyton were significantly higher (1,333 ng/m2 for MeHg and 53,980 ng/m2 for THg) than cobble (64 ng/m2 for MeHg and 1,192 ng/m2 for THg) or woody snag (71 ng/m2 for MeHg and 1,089 ng/m2 for THg) periphyton. Concentrations of THg in surface-sediment periphyton had a strong positive correlation with concentrations of THg in sediment (dry weight). The ratio of MeHg:THg in surface-sediment periphyton increased with the ratio of MeHg:THg in sediment. These data suggest periphyton may play a key role in mercury bioaccumulation in river ecosystems. ?? 2007 American Water Resources Association.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Data synthesis for environmental management: A case study of Chesapeake Bay

Synthesizing large, complex data sets to inform resource managers towards effective environmental stewardship is a universal challenge. In Chesapeake Bay, a well-studied and intensively monitored estuary in North America, the challenge of synthesizing data on water quality and land use as factors related to a key habitat, submerged aquatic vegetation, was tackled by a team of scientists and resource managers operating at multiple levels of governance (state, federal). The synthesis effort took place over a two-year period (2016–2018), and the results were communicated widely to a) scientists via peer review publications and conference presentations; b) resource managers via web materials and workshop presentations; and c) the public through newspaper articles, radio interviews, and podcasts. The synthesis effort was initiated by resource managers at the United States Environmental Protection Agencys’ Chesapeake Bay Program and 16 scientist participants were recruited from a diversity of organizations. Multiple short, immersive workshops were conducted regularly to conceptualize the problem, followed by data analysis and interpretation that supported the preparation of the synthetic products that were communicated widely. Reflections on the process indicate that there are a variety of structural and functional requirements, as well as enabling conditions, that need to be considered to achieve successful outcomes from synthesis efforts.

Chesapeake Bay

Temperature-mediated differences in bacterial kidney disease expression and survival in Renibacterium salmoninarum-challenged bull trout and other salmonids

Resource managers considering restoration and reconnection of watersheds to protect and enhance threatened populations of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus have little information about the consequences of bacterial kidney disease (BKD) caused by Renibacterium salmoninarum. To better understand the response of bull trout to R. salmoninarum challenge, we conducted several laboratory experiments at two water temperatures. The extent, severity, and lethality of BKD in bull trout were compared with those of similarly challenged lake trout S. namaycush, Arctic char S. alpinus, Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, and rainbow trout O. mykiss. The lethal dose of bacterial cells necessary to induce 50% mortality (LD50) was 10-fold lower at the 15??C challenge than at the 9??C challenge. Of the species tested, bull trout were relatively resistant to BKD, Arctic char were the most susceptible among Salvelinus species, and Chinook salmon were the most susceptible among Oncorhynchus species tested. Mean time to death was more rapid for all fish tested at 15??C than for fish challenged at 9??C. These results suggest that infection of bull trout with BKD likely poses a low risk to successful restoration of threatened populations. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Coal quality controls of the Danville coal in Indiana (Illinois Basin, Central USA)

The Danville Coal Member (Dugger Formation, upper Desmoinesian, Pennsylvanian) is a significant economic coal resource in the Illinois Basin, central USA. Deposition of the Danville Coal (peat) was in coastal environments, varying distances from the coastline and, in turn, variable influences from saline waters. The purpose of this study is to examine the coal quality and petrography of the Danville Coal; and to discuss their relationship with depositional environment as it relates to the final coal product. A medium sulfur (1.0-1.5 wt.%) Danville Coal reserve area (northern Indiana coalfield) was compared to a low sulfur (<1.0 wt.%) Danville Coal (central Indiana coalfield) reserve area, the two being approximately 70 km apart. The medium sulfur coal resulted from the peat being deposited in a near-marine environment less protected from the influence of saline waters, whereas the low sulfur coal resulted from fine-grained, clay-dominated sediment protecting the peat from the direct influence of saline waters. Within both areas, the coal quality, coal composition, and trace element concentrations vary as a function of the proximity of the coal to the overlying Busseron Sandstone Member (Pennsylvanian). Where the Busseron Sandstone rests near or directly on the coal, the sulfur content is significantly higher in the top third of the seam. Conversely, where there is a thick section (>3 m) of finer-grained clastic sediments atop the Danville, the sulfur and trace elements contents are significantly lower. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

International Journal of Coal Geology

Predicting pup-rearing habitat for Mexican wolves

Population monitoring is essential to document recovery efforts for threatened and endangered species. Mexican wolves ( Canis lupus baileyi ) are an endangered subspecies of gray wolves that historically occupied large portions of the American Southwest and Mexico. Recently, the Mexican wolf population in the United States has been growing rapidly and traditional approaches for population monitoring (e.g., capture and radio collaring) are becoming difficult and expensive as wolves expand into new areas. We developed predictive models of pup-rearing habitat (i.e., den and rendezvous sites) that could help guide future population monitoring efforts. We located 255 den sites and 129 rendezvous sites in Arizona and New Mexico, USA (1998–2023) using tracking collars and site visits. We sampled habitat conditions in wolf-occupied regions of Arizona and New Mexico and fit logistic regressions to these data following a use–available study design to estimate resource selection functions (RSF) for den and rendezvous sites. We hypothesized wolves would select areas that offered greater physical protection, lower human-disturbance, and access to reliable water sources for pup-rearing but that the relative importance of these features would differ between the denning and rendezvous site seasons. Mexican wolves selected den sites at higher elevations in steeper and rougher terrain that were closer to permanent waterbodies but farther from rural roads. Selection of rendezvous sites was also associated with higher elevations and proximity to waterbodies but varied with availability of green leaf biomass on the landscape. While still highly predictive, our rendezvous site model was less predictive than our den model (Spearman's correlation averaged 0.81 [SE = 0.05] vs. 0.90 [SE = 0.03], respectively), possibly because water and green leaf biomass are more spatially diffuse and variable because of monsoonal rains during the rendezvous site season. Our results suggest that terrain features associated with physical protection and access to reliable water were most important in characterizing suitable pup-rearing habitat for Mexican wolves. By predicting suitable den and rendezvous site habitat across portions of the Mexican Wolf Experimental Population Area, our models can help guide future population monitoring by reducing the total search area when surveying for wolves and increase the probability of detecting all members of a pack.

Arizona, New Mexico

Real-time water quality monitoring at a Great Lakes National Park

Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was used by the USEPA to establish new recreational water quality criteria in 2012 using the indicator bacteria enterococci. The application of this method has been limited, but resource managers are interested in more timely monitoring results. In this study, we evaluated the efficacy of qPCR as a rapid, alternative method to the time-consuming membrane filtration (MF) method for monitoring water at select beaches and rivers of Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore in Empire, MI. Water samples were collected from four locations (Esch Road Beach, Otter Creek, Platte Point Bay, and Platte River outlet) in 2014 and analyzed for culture-based (MF) and non-culture-based (i.e., qPCR) endpoints using Escherichia coli and enterococci bacteria. The MF and qPCR enterococci results were significantly, positively correlated overall (r = 0.686, p < 0.0001, n = 98) and at individual locations as well, except at the Platte River outlet location: Esch Road Beach (r = 0.441, p = 0.031, n = 24), Otter Creek (r = 0.592, p = 0.002, n = 24), and Platte Point Bay (r = 0.571, p = 0.004, n = 24). Similarly, E. coli MF and qPCR results were significantly, positively correlated (r = 0.469, p < 0.0001, n = 95), overall but not at individual locations. Water quality standard exceedances based on enterococci levels by qPCR were lower than by MF method: 3 and 16, respectively. Based on our findings, we conclude that qPCR may be a viable alternative to the culture-based method for monitoring water quality on public lands. Rapid, same-day results are achievable by the qPCR method, which greatly improves protection of the public from water-related illnesses.

Journal of Environmental Quality

Where the waters meet: sharing ideas and experiences between inland and marine realms to promote sustainable fisheries management

Although inland and marine environments, their fisheries, fishery managers, and the realm-specific management approaches are often different, there are a surprising number of similarities that frequently go unrecognized. We contend that there is much to be gained by greater cross-fertilization and exchange of ideas and strategies between realms and the people who manage them. The purpose of this paper is to provide examples of the potential or demonstrated benefits of working across aquatic boundaries for enhanced sustainable management of the world&rsquo;s fisheries resources. Examples include the need to (1) engage in habitat management and protection as the foundation for fisheries, (2) rethink institutional arrangements and management for open-access fisheries systems, (3) establish &ldquo;reference points&rdquo; and harvest control rules, (4) engage in integrated management approaches, (5) reap conservation benefits from the link to fish as food, and (6) reframe conservation and management of fish to better engage the public and industry. Cross-fertilization and knowledge transfer between realms could be realized using environment-independent curricula and symposia, joint scientific advisory councils for management, integrated development projects, and cross-realm policy dialogue. Given the interdependence of marine and inland fisheries, promoting discussion between the realms has the potential to promote meaningful advances in managing global fisheries.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Instream water use in the United States: water laws and methods for determining flow requirements

Water use generally is divided into two primary classes - offstream use and instream use. In offstream use, sometimes called out-of-stream or diversionary use, water is withdrawn (diverted) from a stream or aquifer and transported to the place of use. Examples are irrigated agriculture, municipal water supply, and industrial use. Each of these offstream uses, which decreases the volume of water available downstream from the point of diversion, is discussed in previous articles in this volume. Instream use, which generally does not diminish the flow downstream from its point of use, and its importance are described in this article. One of the earliest instream uses of water in the United States was to turn the water wheels that powered much of the Nation's industry in the 18th and 19th centuries. Although a small volume of water might have been diverted to a mill near streamside, that water usually was returned to the stream near the point of diversion and, thus, the flow was not diminished downstream from the mill. Over time, the generation of hydroelectric power replaced mill wheels as a means of converting water flow into energy. Since the 1920's, the generation of hydroelectric power increasingly has become a major instream use of water. By 1985, more than 3 billion acre-feet of water (3,050,000 million gallons per day) was used annually for hydropower generation (Solley and others, 1988, p. 45)-enough water to cover the State of Colorado to a depth of 51 feet. Navigation is another instream use with a long history. The Lewis and Clark expedition journals and many of Mark Twain's novels illustrate the extent to which the Nation originally depended on adequate streamfiows for basic transportation. Navigation in the 1980's is still considered to be an instream use; however, it often is based upon a stream system that has been modified greatly through channelization, diking, and construction of dams and locks. The present (1987) inland water navigation system in the conterminous United States consists of about 12,000 miles of maintained waterways, over which about 500 million tons of cargo is carried each year (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1988, p. 16). Although not so widely practiced in recent years, streams have been used to dispose of raw waste products from homes, communities, and factories. This use has been discouraged by law and public policy because of public health concerns and the damage it causes to the environment. Beginning in the mid-1960's, other instream uses gained new prominence in the water-resources arena-the assertion of a legal right to a free-flowing stream for biological, recreational, and esthetic purposes. These uses themselves, however, are not new. Riverine habitat always has produced fish, and the beauty of flowing water always has evoked a strong sense of esthetic appreciation. What is new is the emerging legitimacy and awareness of these noneconomic uses under State and Federal laws and regulations. In the past, environmental uses of flowing water were ignored, for the most part, under a long-standing legal tradition that favored offstream uses and certain instream uses that had a strong economic basis. The history of instream-flow policy debate really concerns those recently recognized types of interim uses. Although the more transitional water uses have been protected by law, the recognition of other in stream uses has resulted in substantial changes in State water laws. Although methods for determining the volume of water needed for most traditional water uses are relatively straight-forward and well-established, methods for determining water requirements for the in stream uses have been developed only recently and are continuing to evolve. Water laws that have favored the more traditional water uses, the inherent nature of conflict between instream and offstream water uses, and the special kinds of technological and philosophical problems posed by the "newer" types of instream uses are described below. Water laws that have been passed to accommodate the more recently recognized instream uses are summarized.

Report

A database of natural monthly streamflow estimates from 1950 to 2015 for the conterminous United States

Quantifying and understanding the natural streamflow regime, defined as expected streamflow that would occur in the absence of anthropogenic modification to the hydrologic system, is critically important for the development of management strategies aimed at protecting aquatic ecosystems. Water balance models have been applied frequently to estimate natural flows, but are limited in the number of predictor variables that can be included. Here, a statistical machine learning technique — random forest modeling — was applied to estimate natural flows at a monthly time‐step from 1950 to 2015 for >2.5 million stream reaches in the conterminous United States (U.S.) using 200 potential predictor variables. We describe the development and documentation of this dataset and assess model performance. Model fit statistics (mean Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency = 0.85; observed/expected ratio = 0.94) indicate good correspondence between predicted and observed flows at nearly 2,000 streamgages. As an example application of the dataset, the observed streamflow record at a site prior to and after the construction of an upstream reservoir was compared with estimated natural flows to demonstrate the magnitude of seasonal depletions in streamflow due to the reservoir. This dataset can be applied to quantify natural and anthropogenic processes contributing to streamflow depletion or augmentation, and assess associated ecological effects.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Modeling the effects of tile drain placement on the hydrologic function of farmed prairie wetlands

The early 2000s saw large increases in agricultural tile drainage in the eastern Dakotas of North America. Agricultural practices that drain wetlands directly are sometimes limited by wetland protection programs. Little is known about the impacts of tile drainage beyond the delineated boundaries of wetlands in upland catchments that may be in agricultural production. A series of experiments were conducted using the well-published model WETLANDSCAPE that revealed the potential for wetlands to have significantly shortened surface water inundation periods and lower mean depths when tile is placed in certain locations beyond the wetland boundary. Under the soil conditions found in agricultural areas of South Dakota in North America, wetland hydroperiod was found to be more sensitive to the depth that drain tile is installed relative to the bottom of the wetland basin than to distance-based setbacks. Because tile drainage can change the hydrologic conditions of wetlands, even when deployed in upland catchments, tile drainage plans should be evaluated more closely for the potential impacts they might have on the ecological services that these wetlands currently provide. Future research should investigate further how drainage impacts are affected by climate variability and change.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Sampling strategies for estimating acute and chronic exposures of pesticides in streams

The Food Quality Protection Act of 1996 requires that human exposure to pesticides through drinking water be considered when establishing pesticide tolerances in food. Several systematic and seasonally weighted systematic sampling strategies for estimating pesticide concentrations in surface water were evaluated through Monte Carlo simulation, using intensive datasets from four sites in northwestern Ohio. The number of samples for the strategies ranged from 4 to 120 per year. Sampling strategies with a minimal sampling frequency outside the growing season can be used for estimating time weighted mean and percentile concentrations of pesticides with little loss of accuracy and precision, compared to strategies with the same sampling frequency year round. Less frequent sampling strategies can be used at large sites. A sampling frequency of 10 times monthly during the pesticide runoff period at a 90 km 2 basin and four times monthly at a 16,400 km2 basin provided estimates of the time weighted mean, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentile concentrations that fell within 50 percent of the true value virtually all of the time. By taking into account basin size and the periodic nature of pesticide runoff, costs of obtaining estimates of time weighted mean and percentile pesticide concentrations can be minimized.

Indiana, Michigan, Ohio

Development of a SWAT+ model to improve conservation practice efficacy for protecting stream health in karst pasturelands

Placing appropriate conservation practices in critical source areas of pollutants can benefit stream health in karst environments susceptible to agricultural pollution. Watershed models, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool+ (SWAT+), can optimize both practice selection and placement across the landscape, but to our knowledge no studies have tested this model in karst pasturelands. Our goal was to understand pollutant dynamics in pasturelands with karst topography in southwest Virginia, United States. We built a SWAT+ model to predict streamflow and pollutant loads for four watersheds. SWAT+ predicted that streamflow estimates were most affected by setting the available water capacity to zero and increasing the hydraulic conductivity of the soil, revealing that water, and associated pollutants, move primarily through subsurface pathways. Predicted sediment yield was negatively associated with agricultural land cover and was strongly influenced by channel erodibility—indicating that the predominant sediment source may be streambanks. Therefore, practices that stabilize stream banks (e.g., fencing cattle out of streams) may be most effective at reducing sediment loads. The model unsatisfactorily predicted total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads. The utility of SWAT+ for cattle grazing operations in karst regions could be improved by more accurately representing the effects of cattle grazing on streambank erosion and the dynamic subsurface movement of pollutants.

Virginia

A review of environmental impacts of salts from produced waters on aquatic resources

Salts are frequently a major constituent of waste waters produced during oil and gas production. These produced waters or brines must be treated and/or disposed and provide a daily challenge for operators and resource managers. Some elements of salts are regulated with water quality criteria established for the protection of aquatic wildlife, e.g. chloride (Cl − ), which has an acute standard of 860 mg/L and a chronic standard of 230 mg/L. However, data for establishing such standards has only recently been studied for other components of produced water, such as bicarbonate (HCO 3 − ), which has acute median lethal concentrations (LC50s) ranging from 699 to > 8000 mg/L and effects on chronic toxicity from 430 to 657 mg/L. While Cl− is an ion of considerable importance in multiple geographical regions, knowledge about the effects of hardness (calcium and magnesium) on its toxicity and about mechanisms of toxicity is not well understood. A multiple-approach design that combines studies of both individuals and populations, conducted both in the laboratory and the field, was used to study toxic effects of bicarbonate (as NaHCO 3 ). This approach allowed interpretations about mechanisms related to growth effects at the individual level that could affect populations in the wild. However, additional mechanistic data for HCO 3 − , related to the interactions of calcium (Ca 2 + ) precipitation at the microenvironment of the gill would dramatically increase the scientific knowledge base about how NaHCO 3 might affect aquatic life. Studies of the effects of mixtures of multiple salts present in produced waters and more chronic effect studies would give a better picture of the overall potential toxicity of these ions. Organic constituents in hydraulic fracturing fluids, flowback waters, etc. are a concern because of their carcinogenic properties and this paper is not meant to minimize the importance of maintaining vigilance with respect to potential organic contamination.

International Journal of Coal Geology

Nowcasting methods for determining microbiological water quality at recreational beaches and drinking-water source waters

Nowcasts are tools used to provide timely and accurate water-quality assessments of threats to drinking-water and recreational resources from fecal contamination or cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms. They use mathematical models and techniques to provide near-real-time estimates of fecal-indicator bacteria (FIB) and cyanotoxin concentrations. Techniques include logic-based thresholds, decision trees (built with machine learning), multiple linear and binary logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and process-based deterministic models. The type of site (freshwater, marine, or river) and dependent variable (FIB or cyanotoxin) dictate which explanatory variables are used in models. Nowcast systems notify the public of associated public-health risks and can also be used to manage data for FIB models; work is ongoing to incorporate cyanotoxin models into some nowcasts. The Great Lakes NowCast in the USA has been operational since 2010 and includes 25 lake beaches and one recreational river site. Examples of other operational FIB nowcasts are described for locations in the USA and around the world. In many cases, models predicted exceedances of FIB standards with accuracies as good as or better than using the previous measured FIB concentration (persistence method). Accuracy and timeliness are vital to beach management decisions that protect public health and support the local recreation-driven economy. Nowcasts benefit the public by providing estimates of water-quality conditions in near-real-time. Managers can use nowcasts at recreational and drinking-water treatment plant sites when FIB or cyanotoxins are projected to be elevated to target sample collection, to provide near-real-time recreational advisories to the public, or to preemptively optimize drinking-water treatments or change intake options to mitigate possible adverse effects on drinking-water quality.

Journal of Microbiological Methods

Effects of impervious area and BMP implementation and design on storm runoff and water quality in eight small watersheds

The effects of increases in effective impervious area (EIA) and the implementation of water quality protection designed detention pond best management practices (BMPs) on storm runoff and stormwater quality were assessed in Gwinnett County, Georgia, for the period 2001-2008. Trends among eight small watersheds were compared, using a time trend study design. Significant trends were detected in three storm hydrologic metrics and in five water quality constituents that were adjusted for variability in storm characteristics and climate. Trends in EIA ranged from 0.10 to 1.35, and changes in EIA treated by BMPs ranged from 0.19 to 1.32; both expressed in units of percentage of drainage area per year. Trend relations indicated that for every 1% increase in watershed EIA, about 2.6, 1.1, and 1.5% increases in EIA treated by BMPs would be required to counteract the effects of EIA added to the watersheds on peak streamflow, stormwater yield, and storm streamflow runoff, respectively. Relations between trends in EIA, BMP implementation, and water quality were counterintuitive. This may be the result of (1) changes in constituent inputs in the watersheds, especially downstream of areas treated by BMPs; (2) BMPs may have increased the duration of stormflow that results in downstream channel erosion; and/or (3) spurious relationships between increases in EIA, BMP implementation, and constituent inputs with development rates.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Cumulative spring discharge and survey effort influence occupancy and detection of a threatened freshwater mussel, the Suwannee Moccasinshell

Freshwater mussels (Unionidae) are among the most imperiled groups of organisms in the world, and the lack of information regarding species distributions, life-history characteristics, and ecological and biological requirements may limit the protection of remaining mussel populations. We examined the influence of hydrologic factors on the occurrence of the Suwannee Moccasinshell Medionidus walkeri, a federally threatened freshwater mussel species, endemic to the Suwannee River Basin in Georgia and Florida. We also evaluated the influence of survey effort on detection of Suwannee Moccasinshell during field surveys. We compiled all recent (2013–2016) mussel survey records in the Suwannee River Basin. We calculated cumulative discharge contributed by upstream springs for each of 220 survey locations. We combined the spring discharge predictor variable with Suwannee Moccasinshell detection and nondetection data from each survey location to develop a suite of occupancy models. Modeling results indicated that detection of Suwannee Moccasinshell during surveys was strongly and positively related to survey effort. Modeling results also indicated that sites with cumulative spring discharge inputs exceeding ∼28 cubic meters per second were most likely (i.e., predicted occupancy probabilities >0.5) to support Suwannee Moccasinshell populations. However, occupancy declined in the lowermost reaches of the Suwannee mainstem despite high spring discharge inputs, presumably due to greater tidal influences and differences in physicochemical habitat conditions. Historical localities where Suwannee Moccasinshell has presumably been extirpated are all devoid of springs in their upstream watersheds. We hypothesize that springs may buffer extremely tannic, and at times polluted, surface waters, in addition to maintaining adequate flows during periods of drought, thereby promoting the persistence of Suwannee Moccasinshell populations. Our study suggests that springs are a critical resource for Suwannee Moccasinshell and may be more important for conservation planning than was previously recognized.

Florida

Nutrient loadings to streams of the continental United States from municipal and industrial effluent?

Data from the United States Environmental Protection Agency Permit Compliance System national database were used to calculate annual total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads to surface waters from municipal and industrial facilities in six major regions of the United States for 1992, 1997, and 2002. Concentration and effluent flow data were examined for approximately 118,250 facilities in 45 states and the District of Columbia. Inconsistent and incomplete discharge locations, effluent flows, and effluent nutrient concentrations limited the use of these data for calculating nutrient loads. More concentrations were reported for major facilities, those discharging more than 1 million gallons per day, than for minor facilities, and more concentrations were reported for TP than for TN. Analytical methods to check and improve the quality of the Permit Compliance System data were used. Annual loads were calculated using "typical pollutant concentrations" to supplement missing concentrations based on the type and size of facilities. Annual nutrient loads for over 26,600 facilities were calculated for at least one of the three years. Sewage systems represented 74% of all TN loads and 58% of all TP loads. This work represents an initial set of data to develop a comprehensive and consistent national database of point-source nutrient loads. These loads can be used to inform a wide range of water-quality management, watershed modeling, and research efforts at multiple scales.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Evaluating seawater intrusion forecast uncertainty under climate change in the Pajaro Valley, California

Climate change and climate variability impacts such as rising sea levels have the potential to exacerbate seawater intrusion and the strain on coastal freshwater resources in already stressed groundwater basins such as those in the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin, California. Regional hydrologic models are often coupled with climate projections to forecast future hydrologic conditions and inform adaptive resources management strategies. However, there is high uncertainty in the future projections of water resources due to uncertainties from downscaling global general circulation models (GCMs) to local scale climate change projections, future land use changes, and the inherent uncertainty of developed hydrologic models. Future climate projections and the magnitude of their influence on modeled hydrologic drivers are highly variable. Therefore, to develop a forecast model, an ensemble of different projections can be used to capture a wider range of basin responses and the associated uncertainties in the modeled forecasts. Understanding the reliability and uncertainty of forecasts is important for developing climate adaptation strategies such as developing protective thresholds, particularly at the basin scale where the impacts are felt, and adaptation is implemented. To demonstrate this, an uncertainty analysis of groundwater level and seawater intrusion forecasts for the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin was performed using an ensemble of three future climate projections with the Pajaro Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (PVIHM) and the first-order second moment (FOSM) method. FOSM uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasts across a multi-GCM climate ensemble provides an upper and lower bound of potential impacts of climate change on sustainability targets related to mitigating seawater intrusion. The groundwater level forecasts’ narrow range of variability can help policymakers in adaptation planning by constraining possible outcomes to a focused range for risk-management decisions. However, less than one-third of groundwater level forecasts met the current protection thresholds to prevent chronic lowering of groundwater. Therefore, sustainability targets may need to be reassessed. Relative to groundwater level changes, the seawater intrusion forecasts had larger uncertainty due to the GCM climate projections and the simulated hydrologic response that were compounded by the propagation of scaling and bias from the GCMs and model simplifications in simulating the coastal boundary.

California