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45 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood. We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future. Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants. Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect. Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response experiments indicated that variation in germination has the same potential as the seeds produced per germinant to drive variation in population growth rates, but only the former was clearly related to rainfall. Synthesis . Our work suggests that future changes in the timing and temperatures associated with the first major rains, acting through germination, may more strongly affect population persistence than changes in season-long rainfall.

Journal of Ecology

Unravelling spatial heterogeneity of inundation pattern domains for 2D analysis of fluvial landscapes and drainage networks

Fluvial landscape analysis is an essential part of geomorphology, hydrology, ecology, and cartography. It is traditionally focused on the transition between hillslopes and channel domain, in which the network drainage is represented by static flow lines. However, the natural fluctuations of the processes occurring in the watershed induce lateral and longitudinal expansions and contractions in the drainage patterns and variations of stream surface area. These dynamics can be better understood by introducing a two-dimensional (2D) view of catchment hydrography, in which river width and floodplain are included in the analysis. The novelty introduced in this work is the development of a hydrodynamic hierarchical framework (HHF) to analyse the transitions among geomorphic and hydrographic features of the fluvial landscape, distinguishing hillslope, unchanneled valleys, floodplains, and single/multithreads channels. HHF is based on the estimation of nested inundation pattern domains (IPDs) from digital elevation models and 2D hydrodynamic modeling. IPDs are defined by scaling laws that characterize log–log relations between watershed drainage density and unit discharge thresholds extracted from a 2D direct rainfall method (DRM) under steady state solutions. The physical significance of the IPDs is analysed within the context of both the physiographic features of the fluvial landscape and the rainfall rates employed as input for the modeling approach. Initially, the spatial heterogeneity of the IPDs is used to derive stream width metrics as a function of the rainfall rate. Then, a spatial index, representative of the IPDs' heterogeneity, is introduced as a measure of the susceptibility of the drainage network surface area to expansion and contraction. Finally, the consistency of the results is assessed in comparison to another hydrodynamic-based method for fluvial landscape analysis recently proposed in the literature. The proposed approach is analysed using challenging mountain and low-relief environments, characterized by multithread channels, meander cut-offs, oxbow lakes, and extreme landscapes that feature glacial outwash, permafrost, and peatlands.

Alaska

Support for management actions to protect night sky quality: Insights from visitors to state and national park units in the U.S.

Light pollution is a global phenomenon where anthropogenic light sources continue to grow unabated, affecting both social and ecological systems. This is leaving parks and protected areas as some of the last vestiges of naturally dark environments for protecting views of the night sky. Yet, even parks and protected areas have outdoor lighting. Alternative lighting practices are needed to reduce or prevent light pollution from within parks. However, making parks darker may not be desirable for some visitors if they believe it will reduce navigability, safety, or restrict how they recreate (e.g., requiring the use of red-light flashlights after dark and before dawn). How visitors will respond to alternative lighting practices that park managers can implement is still unknown. We used an on-site intercept survey at nine state and national park units in Utah, U.S. , to investigate nighttime visitors' support or opposition to management actions to protect night sky quality and their interest in learning about topics related to night skies. Further, this study also segmented visitors into two groups: those ‘dependent’ on the dark sky as a resource and those whose activities did not depend on a dark sky. Defining what a ‘dark sky dependent’ visitor is, which has yet to be done in the literature, is a fundamental step to furthering night sky research and management efforts. Across nine parks and protected areas, 62% of nighttime visitors participated in dark sky dependent activities. Findings indicate broad support for management actions designed to improve night sky quality, with between 74% and 89% of all visitors supporting seven different management actions. There was stronger support from dark sky dependent visitors for some elements of alternative lighting practices, but there was still strong support for those who do not participate in dark sky dependent outdoor recreation. Additionally, between 57% and 75% of visitors were interested in learning more about topics related to night skies. This research indicates most visitors would welcome actions to preserve the quality of the rapidly dwindling naturally dark experiences offered by parks and protected areas.

Utah

Latitudinal and photic effects on diel foraging and predation risk in freshwater pelagic ecosystems

1. Clark & Levy ( American Naturalist , 131 , 1988, 271–290) described an antipredation window for smaller planktivorous fish during crepuscular periods when light permits feeding on zooplankton, but limits visual detection by piscivores. Yet, how the window is influenced by the interaction between light regime, turbidity and cloud cover over a broad latitudinal gradi- ent remains unexplored. 2. We evaluated how latitudinal and seasonal shifts in diel light regimes alter the foraging- risk environment for visually feeding planktivores and piscivores across a natural range of turbidities and cloud covers. Pairing a model of aquatic visual feeding with a model of sun and moon illuminance, we estimated foraging rates of an idealized planktivore and piscivore over depth and time across factorial combinations of latitude (0 – 70 ° ), turbidity (0  1 – 5 NTU) and cloud cover (clear to overcast skies) during the summer solstice and autumnal equinox. We evaluated the foraging-risk environment based on changes in the magnitude, duration and peak timing of the antipredation window. 3. The model scenarios generated up to 10-fold shifts in magnitude, 24-fold shifts in duration and 5  5-h shifts in timing of the peak antipredation window. The size of the window increased with latitude. This pattern was strongest during the solstice. In clear water at low turbidity (0  1 – 0  5 NTU), peaks in the magnitude and duration of the window formed at 57 – 60 ° latitude, before falling to near zero as surface waters became saturated with light under a midnight sun and clear skies at latitudes near 70 ° . Overcast dampened the midnight sun enough to allow larger windows to form in clear water at high latitudes. Conversely, at turbidities ≥ 2 NTU, greater reductions in the visual range of piscivores than planktivores created a window for long periods at high latitudes. Latitudinal dependencies were essentially lost during the equinox, indicating a progressive compression of the window from early summer into autumn. 4. Model results show that diel-seasonal foraging and predation risk in freshwater pelagic ecosystems changes considerably with latitude, turbidity and cloud cover. These changes alter the structure of pelagic predator – prey interactions, and in turn, the broader role of pelagic consumers in habitat coupling in lakes.

Journal of Animal Ecology

Broad‐scale occurrence of a subsidized avian predator: reducing impacts of ravens on sage‐grouse and other sensitive prey

Expanding human enterprise across remote environments impacts numerous wildlife species. Anthropogenic resources provide subsidies for generalist predators that can lead to cascading effects on prey species at lower trophic levels. A fundamental challenge for applied ecologists is to disentangle natural and anthropogenic influences on species occurrence, and subsequently develop spatially explicit models to help inform management and conservation decisions. Using Bayesian hierarchical occupancy models, we mapped the broad‐scale occurrence of common ravens Corvus corax as a function of natural and anthropogenic landscape covariates using >15,000 point count surveys performed during 2007–2016 within the Great Basin region, USA. Raven abundance and distribution is substantially increasing across the American west due to unintended anthropogenic resource subsidies. Importantly, ravens prey on eggs and chicks of numerous species including greater sage‐grouse Centrocercus urophasianus , an indicator species whose decline is at the centre of national conservation strategies and land use policies.Anthropogenic factors that contributed to greater raven occurrence were: increased road density, presence of transmission lines, agricultural activity, and presence of roadside rest areas. Natural landscape characteristics included lower elevations with greener vegetation (NDVI), greater stream and habitat edge densities, and lower percentages of big sagebrush A. tridentata spp . Interactions between anthropogenic sources of nesting substrate and food subsidies suggested that raven occurrence increased multiplicatively when these resource subsidies co‐occurred. Overall, the average probability of raven occurrence estimated within sagebrush ecosystems of the study area was ~0.83. Synthesis and applications . We demonstrate how anthropogenic factors can be disentangled from natural effects when making spatially‐explicit predictions of subsidized predators occurring across expansive landscapes. This approach can guide management decisions where subsidized predators overlap sensitive prey habitats. For example, we identify areas where elevated raven occurrence coincides with breeding sage‐grouse concentration areas and appears to be largely driven by anthropogenic factors. Management applications could focus on reducing raven access to anthropogenic subsidies in these areas, while prioritizing habitat improvements for sage‐grouse elsewhere. Our approach is applicable to other species where widespread survey data are available.

Journal of Applied Ecology

The western pond turtle (Clemmys marmorata) in the Mojave River, California, USA: Highly adapted survivor or tenuous relict?

Aspects of the ecology of populations of the western pond turtle Clemmys marmorata were investigated in the Mojave River of the central Mojave Desert, California, U.S.A. One population occupied man-made ponds and the other occurred in natural ponds in the flood plain of the Mojave River. Both habitats are severely degraded as a result of ground water depletion from human activities along the river and one is infested with the exotic shrub saltcedar Tamarix ramosissima . Mean female carapace length (CL) was significantly greater (14.4 cm) than that of males (13.7 cm). Live juveniles were not detected during the period of study. Shelled eggs were visible in X-radiographs from 26 May to 14 July. Mean clutch size was 4.46 and ranged from 3 to 6 eggs. Clutch size did not vary between 1998 and 1999 but was significantly correlated with CL for both years combined, increasing at the rate of 0.548 eggs/cm CL. Gravid female CL ranged from 13.3–16.0 cm. Some females nested in both years. Mean X-ray egg width (21.8 mm) was not significantly correlated with CL or clutch size. X-ray egg width differed more among clutches than within, whether including CL as a co-variate or not. Nesting migrations occurred from 6 June to 8 July with minimum round trip distances ranging from 17.5–585 m with a mean of 195 m. Mean estimated time of departure as measured at the drift fence was 18:13. Most females returned to the ponds in the early morning. Nesting migrations required females to be out of the water for estimated periods of 0.83 to 86 h. The destination of nesting females was typically fluvial sand bars in the channel of the dry riverbed. Overall, the ecology of C. marmorata in the Mojave River is very similar to that reported for populations in less severe habitats along the west coast of the United States. Notable exceptions include long nesting migrations to sandbars in the dry river channel, a possible result of human modifications to the environment, and an apparent lack of terrestrial overwintering behaviour in Mojave River populations. The general similarity of desert and coastal populations is possibly a reflection of their recent geographic separation. Overall, populations in the Mojave River exhibit few obvious adaptations to living in the desert and are considered to be tenuous relicts of the Pleistocene. The small size and tenuous status of these populations suggests that immediate conservation action is needed, including establishment of satellite populations as a hedge against extirpation.

California

Feline immunodeficiency virus cross-species transmission: Implications for emergence of new lentiviral infections

Owing to a complex history of host-parasite coevolution, lentiviruses exhibit a high degree of species specificity. Given the well-documented viral archeology of HIV emergence following human exposures to SIV, understanding processes that promote successful cross-species lentiviral transmissions is highly relevant. We have previously reported natural cross-species transmission of a subtype of feline immunodeficiency virus, puma lentivirus A (PLVA), between bobcats ( Lynx rufus ) and mountain lions ( Puma concolor ) in a small number of animals in California and Florida. In this study we investigate host-specific selection pressures, within-host viral fitness, and inter- vs. intra-species transmission patterns among a larger collection of PLV isolates from free-ranging bobcats and mountain lions. Analysis of proviral and viral RNA levels demonstrates that PLVA fitness is severely restricted in mountain lions compared to bobcats. We document evidence of diversifying selection in three of six PLVA genomes from mountain lions, but did not detect selection among twenty PLVA isolates from bobcats. These findings support that PLVA is a bobcat-adapted virus, which is less fit in mountain lions and under intense selection pressure in the novel host. Ancestral reconstruction of transmission events reveals intraspecific PLVA transmission has occurred among panthers ( Puma concolor coryi ) in Florida following initial cross-species infection from bobcats. In contrast, interspecific transmission from bobcats to mountain lions predominates in California. These findings document outcomes of cross-species lentiviral transmission events among felids that compare to emergence of HIV from nonhuman primates. IMPORTANCE Cross-species transmission episodes can be singular, dead-end events or can result in viral replication and spread in the new species. The factors that determine which outcome will occur are complex, and the risk of new virus emergence is therefore difficult to predict. Here we use molecular techniques to evaluate transmission, fitness, and adaptation of puma lentivirus A (PLVA) between bobcats and mountain lions in two geographic regions. Our findings illustrate that mountain lion exposure to PLVA is relatively common, but does not routinely result in infections communicable in the new host. This is attributed to efficient species barriers that largely prevent lentiviral adaptation. However, the evolutionary capacity for lentiviruses to adapt to novel environments may ultimately overcome host restriction mechanisms over time and under certain ecological circumstances. This phenomenon provides a unique opportunity to examine cross-species transmission events leading to new lentiviral emergence.

California, Florida

Occam's shadow: levels of analysis in evolutionary ecology - where to next?

Evolutionary ecology is the study of evolutionary processes, and the ecological conditions that influence them. A fundamental paradigm underlying the study of evolution is natural selection. Although there are a variety of operational definitions for natural selection in the literature, perhaps the most general one is that which characterizes selection as the process whereby heritable variation in fitness associated with variation in one or more phenotypic traits leads to intergenerational change in the frequency distribution of those traits. The past 20 years have witnessed a marked increase in the precision and reliability of our ability to estimate one or more components of fitness and characterize natural selection in wild populations, owing particularly to significant advances in methods for analysis of data from marked individuals. In this paper, we focus on several issues that we believe are important considerations for the application and development of these methods in the context of addressing questions in evolutionary ecology. First, our traditional approach to estimation often rests upon analysis of aggregates of individuals, which in the wild may reflect increasingly non-random (selected) samples with respect to the trait(s) of interest. In some cases, analysis at the aggregate level, rather than the individual level, may obscure important patterns. While there are a growing number of analytical tools available to estimate parameters at the individual level, and which can cope (to varying degrees) with progressive selection of the sample, the advent of new methods does not reduce the need to consider carefully the appropriate level of analysis in the first place. Estimation should be motivated a priori by strong theoretical analysis. Doing so provides clear guidance, in terms of both (i) assisting in the identification of realistic and meaningful models to include in the candidate model set, and (ii) providing the appropriate context under which the results are interpreted. Second, while it is true that selection (as defined) operates at the level of the individual, the selection gradient is often (if not generally) conditional on the abundance of the population. As such, it may be important to consider estimating transition rates conditional on both the parameter values of the other individuals in the population (or at least their distribution), and population abundance. This will undoubtedly pose a considerable challenge, for both single- and multi-strata applications. It will also require renewed consideration of the estimation of abundance, especially for open populations. Thirdly, selection typically operates on dynamic, individually varying traits. Such estimation may require characterizing fitness in terms of individual plasticity in one or more state variables, constituting analysis of the norms of reaction of individuals to variable environments. This can be quite complex, especially for traits that are under facultative control. Recent work has indicated that the pattern of selection on such traits is conditional on the relative rates of movement among and frequency of spatially heterogeneous habitats, suggesting analyses of evolution of life histories in open populations can be misleading in some cases.

Journal of Applied Statistics

Mapping cropland extent of Southeast and Northeast Asia using multi-year time-series Landsat 30-m data using Random Forest classifier on Google Earth Engine

Cropland extent maps are useful components for assessing food security. Ideally, such products are a useful addition to countrywide agricultural statistics since they are not politically biased and can be used to calculate cropland area for any spatial unit from an individual farm to various administrative unites (e.g., state, county, district) within and across nations, which in turn can be used to estimate agricultural productivity as well as degree of disturbance on food security from natural disasters and political conflict. However, existing cropland extent maps over large areas (e.g., Country, region, continent, world) are derived from coarse resolution imagery (250 m to 1 km pixels) and have many limitations such as missing fragmented and\or small farms with mixed signatures from different crop types and\or farming practices that can be, confused with other land cover. As a result, the coarse resolution maps have limited useflness in areas where fields are small (<1 ha), such as in Southeast Asia. Furthermore, coarse resolution cropland maps have known uncertainties in both geo-precision of cropland location as well as accuracies of the product. To overcome these limitations, this research was conducted using multi-date, multi-year 30-m Landsat time-series data for 3 years chosen from 2013 to 2016 for all Southeast and Northeast Asian Countries (SNACs), which included 7 refined agro-ecological zones (RAEZ) and 12 countries (Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Cambodia, Japan, North Korea, Laos, South Korea, and Brunei). The 30-m (1 pixel = 0.09 ha) data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) were used in the study. Ten Landsat bands were used in the analysis (blue, green, red, NIR, SWIR1, SWIR2, Thermal, NDVI, NDWI, LSWI) along with additional layers of standard deviation of these 10 bands across 1 year, and global digital elevation model (GDEM)-derived slope and elevation bands. To reduce the impact of clouds, the Landsat imagery was time-composited over four time-periods (Period 1: January- April, Period 2: May-August, and Period 3: September-December) over 3-years. Period 4 was the standard deviation of all 10 bands taken over all images acquired during the 2015 calendar year. These four period composites, totaling 42 band data-cube, were generated for each of the 7 RAEZs. The reference training data (N = 7849) generated for the 7 RAEZ using sub-meter to 5-m very high spatial resolution imagery (VHRI) helped generate the knowledge-base to separate croplands from non-croplands. This knowledge-base was used to code and run a pixel-based random forest (RF) supervised machine learning algorithm on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing environment to separate croplands from non-croplands. The resulting cropland extent products were evaluated using an independent reference validation dataset (N = 1750) in each of the 7 RAEZs as well as for the entire SNAC area. For the entire SNAC area, the overall accuracy was 88.1% with a producer’s accuracy of 81.6% (errors of omissions = 18.4%) and user’s accuracy of 76.7% (errors of commissions = 23.3%). For each of the 7 RAEZs overall accuracies varied from 83.2 to 96.4%. Cropland areas calculated for the 12 countries were compared with country areas reported by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and other national cropland statistics resulting in an R 2 value of 0.93. The cropland areas of provinces were compared with the province statistics that showed an R 2 = 0.95 for South Korea and R 2 = 0.94 for Thailand. The cropland products are made available on an interactive viewer at www.croplands.org and for download at National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC): https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/node/1281 .

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation