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Results for “Journal of Avian Biology”

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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Experimental evidence of long-term reproductive costs in a colonial nesting seabird

Trade-offs between current and future reproduction are central to the evolution of life histories. Experiments that manipulate brood size provide an effective approach to investigating future costs of current reproduction. Most manipulative studies to date, however, have addressed only the short-term effects of brood size manipulation. Our goal was to determine whether survival or breeding costs of reproduction in a long-lived species manifest beyond the subsequent breeding season. To this end, we investigated long-term survival and breeding effects of a multi-year reproductive cost experiment conducted on black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla , a long-lived colonial nesting seabird. We used multi-state capture–recapture modeling to assess hypotheses regarding the role of experimentally reduced breeding effort and other factors, including climate phase and colony size and productivity, on future survival and breeding probabilities during the 16-yr period following the experiment. We found that forced nest failures had a positive effect on breeding probability over time, but had no effect on long-term survival. This apparent canalization of survival suggests that adult survival is the most important parameter influencing fitness in this long-lived species, and that adults should pay reproductive costs in ways that do not compromise this critical life history parameter. When declines in adult survival rate are observed, they may indicate populations of conservation concern.

Alaska

A red knot as a black swan: How a single bird shows navigational abilities during repeat crossings of the Greenland Icecap

Despite the wealth of studies on seasonal movements of birds between southern nonbreeding locations and High Arctic breeding locations, the key mechanisms of navigation during these migrations remain elusive. A flight along the shortest possible route between pairs of points on a sphere (‘orthodrome’) requires a bird to be able to assess its current location in relation to its migration goal and to make continuous adjustment of heading to reach that goal. Alternatively, birds may navigate along a vector with a fixed orientation (‘loxodrome’) based on magnetic and/or celestial compass mechanisms. Compass navigation is considered especially challenging for summer migrations in Polar regions, as continuous daylight and complexity in the geomagnetic field may complicate the use of both celestial and magnetic compasses here. We examine the possible use of orientation mechanisms during migratory flights across the Greenland Icecap. Using a novel 2 g solar-powered satellite transmitter, we documented the flight paths travelled by a female red knot ( Calidris canutus islandica ) during two northward and two southward migrations. The geometry of the paths suggests that red knots can migrate across the Greenland Icecap along the shortest-, orthodrome-like, path instead of the previously suggested loxodrome path. This particular bird’s ability to return to locations visited in a previous year, together with its sudden course changes (which would be appropriate responses to ambient wind fields), suggest a map sense that enables red knots to determine location, so that they can tailor their route depending on local conditions.

Journal of Avian Biology

High site fidelity does not equate to population genetic structure for common goldeneye and Barrow's goldeneye in North America

Delineation of population structure provides valuable information for conservation and management of species, as levels of demographic and genetic connectivity not only affect population dynamics but also have important implications for adaptability and resiliency of populations and species. Here, we measure population genetic structure and connectivity across the ranges of two sister species of sea ducks: Barrow's goldeneye Bucephala islandica and common goldeneye B. clangula . We use two different marker types: 7–8 nuclear microsatellite loci assayed across 229 samples and 3678 double digest restriction‐site associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD‐seq) loci assayed across 61 samples. First, both datasets found no evidence of genetic structure within common or Barrow's goldeneye, including between North American and European samples of common goldeneye. These results are in contrast with previous mitochondrial DNA, band recovery and telemetry data which suggest that goldeneyes are structured across their range. We posit that the discordance between autosomal genetic markers and other data types suggests that males, possibly subadult males, may be maintaining genetic connectivity across each species' respective ranges. Next, although mate choice consequences resulting from inter‐specific brood parasitism was hypothesized to cause some level of gene flow between goldeneye species, we only identified a single F1 hybrid with no further evidence of contemporary or historical gene flow. Despite ddRAD‐seq demographic analyses which recovered an optimum evolutionary model of split‐with‐migration (i.e. secondary contact), estimates of gene flow were <<1 migrant per generation in both directions. Together, we conclude that either strong ecological barriers or assortative mating are likely playing a role in preventing further backcrossing. Finally, demographic analyses estimated a relatively deep divergence time between Barrow's goldeneye and common goldeneye of ~1.6 million years before present and suggests that the genomes of both species have been under similar evolutionary constraints.

Journal of Avian Biology

Migration patterns and wintering distribution of common loons breeding in the Upper Midwest

Identification of geographic linkages among breeding, migratory and wintering common loon Gavia immer populations is needed to inform regional and national conservation planning efforts and compensation of loons lost during marine oil spill events. Satellite telemetry and archival geolocator tags were used to determine the migration patterns and wintering locations of breeding adult and young of the year juvenile common loons captured and marked on lakes in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Adult loons typically traveled from breeding lakes, often via larger staging lakes, to the Great Lakes (primarily Lake Michigan) and then on to wintering areas. Most radiomarked juvenile common loons utilized natal lakes or local lakes through mid-November. Subsequently, the first fall migration of juvenile loons was generally initiated later, and more direct and quicker to wintering areas relative to adults. Among adult (n = 103) and juvenile (n = 23) loons that completed fall migration, most wintered in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with smaller proportions wintering off the southern Atlantic Coast or impoundments in the southeastern United States. Spring migration of adults to breeding lakes was less prolonged than fall migration, with adult male loons tending to depart wintering areas earlier than adult females. Juvenile common loons migrated during their first spring from wintering sites in the GOM to summer in the Gulf of St Lawrence/Nova Scotia Coastal region. Juvenile mortality was largely linked to parasitic infection and emaciation; spring appeared to be a survival bottleneck among juvenile loons monitored in our study. Our results identify several areas where common loon conservation efforts could be directed to protect key habitats and minimize stressors during the non-breeding period.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin

Diurnal timing of nonmigratory movement by birds: The importance of foraging spatial scales

Timing of activity can reveal an organism's efforts to optimize foraging either by minimizing energy loss through passive movement or by maximizing energetic gain through foraging. Here, we assess whether signals of either of these strategies are detectable in the timing of activity of daily, local movements by birds. We compare the similarities of timing of movement activity among species using six temporal variables: start of activity relative to sunrise, end of activity relative to sunset, relative speed at midday, number of movement bouts, bout duration, and proportion of active daytime hours. We test for the influence of flight mode and foraging habitat on the timing of movement activity across avian guilds. We used 64570 days of GPS movement data collected between 2002 and 2019 for local (non‐migratory) movements of 991 birds from 49 species, representing 14 orders. Dissimilarity among daily activity patterns was best explained by flight mode. Terrestrial soaring birds began activity later and stopped activity earlier than pelagic soaring or flapping birds. Broad‐scale foraging habitat explained less of the clustering patterns because of divergent timing of active periods of pelagic surface and diving foragers. Among pelagic birds, surface foragers were active throughout the day while diving foragers matched their active hours more closely to daylight hours. Pelagic surface foragers also had the greatest daily foraging distances, which was consistent with their daytime activity patterns. This study demonstrates that flight mode and foraging habitat influence temporal patterns of daily movement activity of birds.

Journal of Avian Biology

Activity patterns of Hawaiian forest birds in a fragmented and continuous landscape

Activity patterns are a key component of avian life history and behavior, and decisions about how activity periods are structured can have important fitness implications. Despite the importance of activity patterns, individual variability in activity is poorly studied in small birds. We used automated radio telemetry to track Hawaiian forest birds from three dietary guilds in a continuous forest, and in a similar forest that was naturally fragmented in the 1800s by lava flows but supports stable populations of native birds. We generated kernel density profiles of activity (KDEs) over the full tracking period of each bird and used the KDEs to derive seven activity metrics that characterized daily activity patterns. We identified three distinct activity strategies using a cluster analysis of the activity metrics and assessed day-to-day variability in activity strategy to understand intraindividual consistency in activity behavior. We also evaluated the influence of landscape structure, dietary guild and sex on the suite of activity metrics using constrained ordination. Most birds (61%) exhibited high levels of sustained activity throughout the day, while 23% showed irregular activity most of the day followed by a peak in the late afternoon, and 16% were mainly active in the morning. Though activity patterns varied by sex and dietary guild, landscape structure had the strongest influence on activity patterns. Birds sustained high levels of activity throughout the day in the fragmented landscape regardless of dietary guild, suggesting they needed to be more active to obtain necessary resources. However, activity patterns of birds in the fragmented landscape varied more day-to-day, indicating they retained a method for adjusting behavior to match internal and external conditions. This study reveals how a diverse suite of tropical birds has adapted to long-term fragmentation in Hawaiʻi and demonstrates the utility of automated radio telemetry for studying the activity strategies of birds.

Hawaii

Patterns of parental care and movement in divided broods of golden-winged warblers

Post-fledging brood division is a poorly understood, yet widespread suite of avian behaviours that includes both division of parental care and spatial division of a brood. For most species, the differences in parental care between adult males and females and the behavioural mechanisms explaining spatial patterns of brood division are unknown. We studied brood division in golden-winged warblers Vermivora chrysoptera to describe the spatial and behavioural characteristics of brood division and assess hypotheses describing the potential benefits of brood division. Female golden-winged warblers are known to travel farther from their nests than males within the post-fledging period, although the mechanism resulting in this spatial pattern is unknown. From 2010 to 2012, we monitored radio-marked golden-winged warbler fledglings from fledging until independence from adult care at three sites in the western Great Lakes region of North America. We observed no significant differences in provisioning, parental attendance, daily distance traveled and fledgling begging between male- and female-reared sub-broods. We also did not observe a relationship between parental sex and fledgling sex or mass. However, female-reared sub-broods exhibited a unique period of relatively consistent directional movement on days 8–10 after fledging, which resulted in females traveling farther from the nests than males. Our observations were not fully consistent with any previously proposed hypotheses about the benefits of brood division. Brood division is a complex behaviour that may have a suite of benefits, including predation defense and provisioning efficiency, that are not fully understood.

Journal of Avian Biology

Hidden in plain sight: Migration routes of the elusive Anadyr bar-tailed godwit revealed by satellite tracking

Satellite and GPS tracking technology continues to reveal new migration patterns of birds which enables comparative studies of migration strategies and distributional information useful in conservation. Bar-tailed godwits in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway Limosa lapponica baueri and L. l. menzbieri are known for their long non-stop flights, however these populations are in steep decline. A third subspecies in this flyway, L. l. anadyrensis , breeds in the Anadyr River basin, Chukotka, Russia, and is morphologically distinct from menzbieri and baueri based on comparison of museum specimens collected from breeding areas. However, the non-breeding distribution, migration route and population size of anadyrensis are entirely unknown. Among 24 female bar-tailed godwits tracked in 2015–2018 from northwest Australia, the main non-breeding area for menzbieri , two birds migrated further east than the rest to breed in the Anadyr River basin, i.e. they belonged to the anadyrensis subspecies. During pre-breeding migration, all birds staged in the Yellow Sea and then flew to the breeding grounds in the eastern Russian Arctic. After breeding, these two birds migrated southwestward to stage in Russia on the Kamchatka Peninsula and on Sakhalin Island en route to the Yellow Sea. This contrasts with the other 22 tracked godwits that followed the previously described route of menzbieri , i.e. they all migrated northwards to stage in the New Siberian Islands before turning south towards the Yellow Sea, and onwards to northwest Australia. Since the Kamchatka Peninsula was not used by any of the tracked menzbieri birds, the 4500 godwits counted in the Khairusova–Belogolovaya estuary in western Kamchatka may well be anadyrensis . Comparing migration patterns across the three bar-tailed godwits subspecies, the migration strategy of anadyrensis lies between that of menzbieri and baueri . Future investigations combining migration tracks with genomic data could reveal how differences in migration routines are evolved and maintained.

Journal of Avian Biology

Local weather and endogenous factors affect the initiation of migration in short- and medium-distance songbird migrants

Migratory birds employ a variety of mechanisms to ensure appropriate timing of migration based on integration of endogenous and exogenous information. The cues to fatten and depart from the non-breeding area are often linked to exogenous cues such as temperature or precipitation and the endogenous program. Shorter distance migrants should rely heavily on environmental information when initiating migration given relatively close proximity to the breeding area. However, the ability to fatten and subsequently depart may be linked to individual circumstances, including current fuel load and body size. For early and late departing migrants, we investigate effects of temperature, precipitation, lean body mass, fuel load and day of year on the initiation of migration (i.e. fuel load and departure timing) from the non-breeding region by analyzing 21 years of banding data for four species of short- and medium-distance migrants. Temperatures at the non-breeding area were related to temperatures at potential stopover areas. Despite local cues being predictive of conditions further north, the amount variation explained by local weather conditions in our models differed by species and temporal period but was low overall (< 33% variation explained). For each species, we also compared lean body mass and fuel load between early and late departing migrants, which showed mixed results. Our combined results suggest that most individuals migrating short or medium distances in our study did not time the initiation of migration with local predictive cues alone, but rather other factors such as lean body mass, fuel load, day of year, which may be a proxy for the endogenous program, and those beyond the scope of our study also influenced the initiation of migration. Our study contributes to understanding which factors influence departure decisions of short- and medium-distance migrants as they transition from the non-breeding to the migratory phase of the annual cycle.

Louisiana

Landscape configuration alters movement behavior and space-use of a Hawaiian forest bird community

Habitat loss and fragmentation are considered the greatest threats to ecosystems worldwide. Movement reveals how individuals meet their habitat requirements and respond to environmental heterogeneity, and thus can provide a powerful tool for investigating how animals respond to changes in landscape configuration. In our study, we examined the effects of landscape configuration on the space use and movement strategies of four endemic Hawaiian forest bird species spanning a range of foraging guilds (i.e. frugivore, nectivore, generalist). We used a landscape-level automated radio tracking system to measure location data of 127 individuals tracked on Hawaiʻi Island in a naturally fragmented landscape created by volcanic activity in the mid- to late-1800s and a nearby continuous landscape. We found that landscape configuration had a strong effect on movement patterns and space-use of all four species. In the fragmented landscape, all species predominately occupied a single forest patch, displayed a high degree of area-restricted search behavior, with few long-distance movements away from their primary forest patch. These patterns contrasted significantly with those of conspecifics in the continuous landscape which exhibited relatively unconstrained movements across the forested landscape and had 3- to 12-fold larger home ranges. Our findings indicate that landscape structure plays a strong role in shaping movement behavior of a tropical bird community and provides valuable insights into the behavioral mechanisms that may be important for species to persist within fragmented landscapes.

Journal of Avian Biology

Examining inter-regional and intra-seasonal differences in wintering waterfowl landscape associations among Pacific and Atlantic flyways

The Central Valley of California (CVC) and Mid-Atlantic (MA) in the U.S. are both critical sites for nationwide food security, and many waterfowl species annually, especially during the winter, providing feeding and roosting locations for a variety of species. Mapping waterfowl distributions, using NEXRAD, may aid in the adaptive management of important waterfowl habitat and allow various government agencies to better understand the interface between wild and domestic birds and commercial agricultural practices. We used 9 years (2014–2023) of data from the US NEXRAD network to model winter waterfowl relative abundance in the CVC and MA as a function of weather, temporal period, environmental conditions, and landcover characteristics using boosted regression tree modelling. We were able to quantify the variability in effect size of 28 different covariates across space and time within two geographic regions which are critical to nationwide waterfowl management and host a high density of nationally important commercial agriculture. In general, weather, geographic (distance to features), and landcover condition (wetness index) predictors had the strongest relative effect on predicting wintering waterfowl relative abundance in both regions, while effects of land cover composition were more regionally and temporally specific. Increased daily mean temperature was a major predictor of increasing relative waterfowl abundance in both regions throughout the winter. Increasing precipitation had differing effects within regions, increasing relative waterfowl abundance in the MA, while decreasing in general within the CVC. Increasing relative waterfowl abundance in the CVC are strongly tied to the flooding of the landscape and rice availability, whereas waterfowl in the MA, where water is less limiting, are generally governed by waste grain availability and emergent wetland on the landscape. Waterfowl relative abundance in the MA was generally higher nearer to the Atlantic coast and lakes, while in the CVC they were higher nearer to lakes. Our findings promote a better understanding of spatial associations of waterfowl to landscape features and may aid in conservation and biosecurity management protocols.

California, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, North

Routes and travel rates of migrating Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus and Swainson's Hawks Buteo swainsoni in the Western Hemisphere

We describe and compare the migration routes, length of migration, and duration of migration of Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus tundrius and Swainson's Hawks Buteo swainsoni in the Western Hemisphere. We radio tracked migrants using the Argos satellite system. Our initial samples were 34 Swainson's Hawks from representative areas of their breeding range, and 61 Peregrine Falcons captured at nest sites across the North American boreal forest and low Arctic or on the migration routes along the mid-Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts. The average distance of migration for Peregrines was 8,624 km southward, and 8,247 km northward. Peregrines travelled at an average rate of 172 km/d southward and 198 km/d going north. Peregrine Falcons used at least three broad, general routes south from the breeding areas, and individuals stopped migrating as far north as the U.S.A. mid-Atlantic coast and as far south as central Argentina. The radiomarked Peregrine Falcons used coastal routes, mid-continental routes, and water-crossing routes: the Davis Strait and Caribbean Sea. During northward migration, Peregrines migrating through at Padre Island, Texas diverged for destinations from central Alaska across the continent to central West Greenland. Swainson's Hawks migrated an average of about 13,504 km southward and 11,952 km northward, and travelled 188 km/d southward and 150 km/d northward. Swainson's Hawks converged in eastern Mexico on the Gulf of Mexico coast. Southward, these hawks followed a narrow, well-defined path through Central America, across the Andes Mountains in Columbia, and east of the Andes to central Argentina where they all spent the austral summer. Swainson's Hawks northward migration largely retraced their southward route.

Journal of Avian Biology

Falcon versus grouse: flight adaptations of a predator and its prey

Several falcons were trained to fly along a 500 m course to a lure. The air speeds of the more consistent performers averaged about 1.5 times their calculated minimum power speeds, and occasionally reached 2.1 times the minimum power speed. Wing beat frequencies of all the falcons were above those estimated from earlier field observations, and the same was true of wild Sage Grouse Centrocercus urophasianus, a regular falconer's quarry in the study area. Measurements of grouse killed by falcons showed that their wings were short, with broad slotted tips, whereas the falcons' wings were longer in relation to their body mass, and tapered. The short wings of grouse result in fast flight, high power requirements, and reduced capacity for aerobic flight. Calculations indicated that the grouse should fly faster than the falcons, and had the large amount of flight muscle needed to do so, but that the falcons would be capable of prolonged aerobic flight, whereas the grouse probably would not. We surmise that Sage Grouse cannot fly continuously without incurring an oxygen debt, and are therefore not long-distance migrants, although this limitation is partly due to their large size, and would not apply to smaller galliform birds such as ptarmigan Lagopus spp. The wing action seen in video recordings of the falcons was not consistent with the maintenance of constant circulation. We call it 'chase mode' because it appears to be associated with a high level of muscular exertion, without special regard to fuel economy. It shows features in common with the 'bounding' flight of passerines.

Journal of Avian Biology

Changes in total body calcium and diet of breeding house sparrows

We collected House Sparrows Passer domesticus around London, Ontario, estimated their total body calcium masses, food habits and egg production to test for the effects of endogenous calcium levels on control of clutch size. Before egg production began, calcium levels increased significantly and remained high through the end of egg laying, and then declined significantly after egg laying. We found no evidence that clutch size was related to endogenous calcium levels. Upon first ovulation, House Sparrows greatly increased consumption of calciferous materials such as snail shells, bird eggshells and calciferous grit. Their diet returned to normal after the final egg was ovulated. Daily calcium intake was sufficient to meet eggshell calcium needs.

Journal of Avian Biology

Short-term oscillations in avian molt intensity: evidence from the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos

From a year-long study of molt in the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos, we recorded 2069 contour feathers replaced in 137 d (6 May-19 September). Very few contour feathers were lost outside this period. From precise daily counts of feathers lost, and using time series analysis, we identified short-term fluctuations (i.e., 19-d subcycles) around a midsummer peak (i.e., a left-skewed normal distribution). Because these subcycles have never before been reported and because the physiological basis for many aspects of avian molt is poorly known, we offer only hypothetical explanations for the controls responsible for the subcycles.

Journal of Avian Biology

Geographic variation in the plumage coloration of willow flycatchers Empidonax traillii

The ability to identify distinct taxonomic groups of birds (species, subspecies, geographic races) can advance ecological research efforts by determining connectivity between the non-breeding and breeding grounds for migrant species, identifying the origin of migrants, and helping to refine boundaries between subspecies or geographic races. Multiple methods are available to identify taxonomic groups (e.g., morphology, genetics), and one that has played an important role for avian taxonomists over the years is plumage coloration. With the advent of electronic devices that can quickly and accurately quantify plumage coloration, the potential of using coloration as an identifier for distinct taxonomic groups, even when differences are subtle, becomes possible. In this study, we evaluated the degree to which plumage coloration differs among the four subspecies of the willow flycatcher Empidonax traillii, evaluated sources of variation, and considered the utility of plumage coloration to assign subspecies membership for individuals of unknown origin. We used a colorimeter to measure plumage coloration of 374 adult willow flycatchers from 29 locations across their breeding range in 2004 and 2005. We found strong statistical differences among the mean plumage coloration values of the four subspecies; however, while individuals tended to group around their respective subspecies' mean color value, the dispersion of individuals around such means overlapped. Mean color values for each breeding site of the three western subspecies clustered together, but the eastern subspecies' color values were dispersed among the other subspecies, rather than distinctly clustered. Additionally, sites along boundaries showed evidence of intergradation and intermediate coloration patterns. We evaluated the predictive power of colorimeter measurements on flycatchers by constructing a canonical discriminant model to predict subspecies origin of migrants passing through the southwestern U.S. Considering only western subspecies, we found that individuals can be assigned with reasonable certainty. Applying the model to migrants sampled along the Colorado River in Mexico and the U.S. suggests different migration patterns for the three western subspecies. We believe that the use of plumage coloration, as measured by electronic devices, can provide a powerful tool to look at ecological questions in a wide range of avian species.

Journal of Avian Biology

Components of productivity in black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla: Response to supplemental feeding

In contrast to the high productivity of black‐legged kittiwakes in Britain, kittiwakes at many colonies in Alaska have failed chronically to reproduce since the mid 1970s. To determine if food is limiting productivity and, if so, at what stages of nesting food shortages are most severe, in 1996 and 1997 we supplementally fed kittiwakes nesting on an abandoned building. The effects of feeding were stronger in 1997 than in 1996, possibly because naturally occurring prey were of poorer quality in 1997. Consumption of supplemental herring declined as egg laying approached then increased slowly during incubation and more rapidly after hatching. All of the six components of productivity we studied were improved by supplemental feeding to some degree. Supplemental food did not significantly alter laying success in either year, although fed pairs bred at slightly higher rates than unfed pairs in 1997, the poorer food year. In 1996 and 1997, extra food noticeably increased clutch size and hatching success, but significantly so only in 1997. Fledging success and productivity were substantially augmented by feeding in both years. Fed pairs fledged twice as many chicks per nest as did unfed pairs in 1996 and three times as many in 1997. Fed and unfed pairs lost most of their potential productivity through the inability to hatch eggs, and secondarily because of their poor success at raising chicks. The benefits of supplemental feeding did not carry over from one stage of breeding to another. Pairs cut off from supplemental food after laying or hatching performed similarly to pairs that had not been previously fed. This study provides benchmark values of breeding performance attainable by kittiwakes in Alaska under optimal conditions. These values are comparable to highly productive colonies in Britain and suggest that differences in life‐history characteristics between Pacific and Atlantic breeding populations are primarily controlled by food supply.

Alaska

Hierarchical models of animal abundance and occurrence

Much of animal ecology is devoted to studies of abundance and occurrence of species, based on surveys of spatially referenced sample units. These surveys frequently yield sparse counts that are contaminated by imperfect detection, making direct inference about abundance or occurrence based on observational data infeasible. This article describes a flexible hierarchical modeling framework for estimation and inference about animal abundance and occurrence from survey data that are subject to imperfect detection. Within this framework, we specify models of abundance and detectability of animals at the level of the local populations defined by the sample units. Information at the level of the local population is aggregated by specifying models that describe variation in abundance and detection among sites. We describe likelihood-based and Bayesian methods for estimation and inference under the resulting hierarchical model. We provide two examples of the application of hierarchical models to animal survey data, the first based on removal counts of stream fish and the second based on avian quadrat counts. For both examples, we provide a Bayesian analysis of the models using the software WinBUGS.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme