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Results for “Journal of Applied Probability”

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USGS1982

Evaluation of the river die-away biodegradation test

The reliability of the river die-away (RDA) test for establishing the biodegradability of chemicals was assessed. Reproducibility of biodegradation in the RDA test was analyzed under conditions in which the test is commonly done. Biodegradation results were not reproducible for di-2-ethylexyl phthalate (DEHP) and phthalic acid in replicated RDA tests using Missouri River water. Chemical and biological changes during the RDA tests probably reflected relative laboratory conditions. Initial suspended solids and subsequent DEHP biodegradation were directly related. Interpretation of RDA test results is enhanced by replicating experiments and comparing biodegradation of the test compound with a compound whose degradation properties are known. However, biodegradation measured with the RDA test is too variable and too dependent on laboratory treatment of samples to apply results directly to the aquatic environment.

Journal of the Water Pollution Control Federation↗

USGS2017

Geospatial tools effectively estimate nonexceedance probabilities of daily streamflow at ungauged and intermittently gauged locations in Ohio

Study region The state of Ohio in the United States, a humid, continental climate. Study focus The estimation of nonexceedance probabilities of daily streamflows as an alternative means of establishing the relative magnitudes of streamflows associated with hydrologic and water-quality observations. New hydrological insights for the region Several methods for estimating nonexceedance probabilities of daily mean streamflows are explored, including single-index methodologies (nearest-neighboring index) and geospatial tools (kriging and topological kriging). These methods were evaluated by conducting leave-one-out cross-validations based on analyses of nearly 7 years of daily streamflow data from 79 unregulated streamgages in Ohio and neighboring states. The pooled, ordinary kriging model, with a median Nash–Sutcliffe performance of 0.87, was superior to the single-site index methods, though there was some bias in the tails of the probability distribution. Incorporating network structure through topological kriging did not improve performance. The pooled, ordinary kriging model was applied to 118 locations without systematic streamgaging across Ohio where instantaneous streamflow measurements had been made concurrent with water-quality sampling on at least 3 separate days. Spearman rank correlations between estimated nonexceedance probabilities and measured streamflows were high, with a median value of 0.76. In consideration of application, the degree of regulation in a set of sample sites helped to specify the streamgages required to implement kriging approaches successfully.

Ohio↗

USGS2006

Fuel loads, fire regimes, and post-fire fuel dynamics in Florida Keys pine forests

In forests, the effects of different life forms on fire behavior may vary depending on their contributions to total fuel loads. We examined the distribution of fuel components before fire, their effects on fire behavior, and the effects of fire on subsequent fuel recovery in pine forests within the National Key Deer Refuge in the Florida Keys. We conducted a burning experiment in six blocks, within each of which we assigned 1-ha plots to three treatments: control, summer, and winter burn. Owing to logistical constraints, we burned only 11 plots, three in winter and eight in summer, over a 4-year period from 1998 to 2001. We used path analysis to model the effects of fuel type and char height, an indicator of fire intensity, on fuel consumption. Fire intensity increased with surface fuel loads, but was negatively related to the quantity of hardwood shrub fuels, probably because these fuels are associated with a moist microenvironment within hardwood patches, and therefore tend to resist fire. Winter fires were milder than summer fires, and were less effective at inhibiting shrub encroachment. A mixed seasonal approach is suggested for fire management, with burns applied opportunistically under a range of winter and summer conditions, but more frequently than that prevalent in the recent past. ?? IAWF 2006.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

USGS2017

Development of a robust analytical framework for assessing landbird trends, dynamics and relationships with environmental covariates in the North Coast and Cascades Network

During 2015-2016, we completed development of a new analytical framework for landbird population monitoring data from the National Park Service (NPS) North Coast and Cascades Inventory and Monitoring Network (NCCN). This new tool for analysis combines several recent advances in modeling population status and trends using point-count data and is designed to supersede the approach previously slated for analysis of trends in the NCCN and other networks, including the Sierra Nevada Network (SIEN). Advances supported by the new model-based approach include 1) the use of combined data on distance and time of detection to estimate detection probability without assuming perfect detection at zero distance, 2) seamless accommodation of variation in sampling effort and missing data, and 3) straightforward estimation of the effects of downscaled climate and other local habitat characteristics on spatial and temporal trends in landbird populations. No changes in the current field protocol are necessary to facilitate the new analyses. We applied several versions of the new model to data from each of 39 species recorded in the three mountain parks of the NCCN, estimating trends and climate relationships for each species during 2005-2014. Our methods and results are also reported in a manuscript in revision for the journal Ecosphere (hereafter, Ray et al.). Here, we summarize the methods and results outlined in depth by Ray et al., discuss benefits of the new analytical framework, and provide recommendations for its application to synthetic analyses of long-term data from the NCCN and SIEN. All code necessary for implementing the new analyses is provided within the Appendices to this report, in the form of fully annotated scripts written in the open-access programming languages R and JAGS.

Natural Resource Report↗

USGS2011

Compensatory effects of recruitment and survival when amphibian populations are perturbed by disease

The need to increase our understanding of factors that regulate animal population dynamics has been catalysed by recent, observed declines in wildlife populations worldwide. Reliable estimates of demographic parameters are critical for addressing basic and applied ecological questions and understanding the response of parameters to perturbations (e.g. disease, habitat loss, climate change). However, to fully assess the impact of perturbation on population dynamics, all parameters contributing to the response of the target population must be estimated. We applied the reverse‐time model of Pradel in Program mark to 6 years of capture–recapture data from two populations of Anaxyrus boreas (boreal toad) populations, one with disease and one without. We then assessed a priori hypotheses about differences in survival and recruitment relative to local environmental conditions and the presence of disease. We further explored the relative contribution of survival probability and recruitment rate to population growth and investigated how shifts in these parameters can alter population dynamics when a population is perturbed. High recruitment rates (0·41) are probably compensating for low survival probability (range 0·51–0·54) in the population challenged by an emerging pathogen, resulting in a relatively slow rate of decline. In contrast, the population with no evidence of disease had high survival probability (range 0·75–0·78) but lower recruitment rates (0·25). Synthesis and applications. We suggest that the relationship between survival and recruitment may be compensatory, providing evidence that populations challenged with disease are not necessarily doomed to extinction. A better understanding of these interactions may help to explain, and be used to predict, population regulation and persistence for wildlife threatened with disease. Further, reliable estimates of population parameters such as recruitment and survival can guide the formulation and implementation of conservation actions such as repatriations or habitat management aimed to improve recruitment.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2009

Bycatch of the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in a commercial fishery for shovelnose sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus)

We quantified the bycatch of pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus in Tennessee's shovelnose sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus platorynchus ) fishery by accompanying commercial fishers and monitoring their catch on five dates in spring 2007. Fishers were free to keep or discard any sturgeon they collected in their gillnets and trotlines and we were afforded the opportunity to collect meristic and morphometric data and tissue samples from discarded and harvested specimens. Fishers removed 327 live sturgeon from their gear in our presence, of which 93 were harvested; we also obtained the carcasses of 20 sturgeon that a fisher harvested out of our sight while we were on the water with another fisher. Two of the 113 harvested sturgeon were confirmed pallid sturgeon based on microsatellite DNA analyses. Additionally, fishers gave us five, live pallid sturgeon that they had removed from their gear. If the incidental harvest rate of pallid sturgeon (1.8% of all sturgeon harvested) was similar in the previous two commercial seasons, at least 169 adult pallid sturgeon were harvested by commercial fishers in the Tennessee waters of the Mississippi River in 2005-2007. If fishers altered their behavior because of our presence (i.e. if they were more conservative in what they harvested), the pallid sturgeon take was probably higher when they fished unaccompanied by observers. While retrieving a gill net set the previous day, a fisher we were accompanying retrieved a gillnet lost 2 days earlier; this ghost net caught 53 sturgeon whereby one fish was harvested but most fish were dead, including one confirmed pallid sturgeon.

Journal of Applied Ichthyology↗

USGS2014

Accounting for false-positive acoustic detections of bats using occupancy models

1. Acoustic surveys have become a common survey method for bats and other vocal taxa. Previous work shows that bat echolocation may be misidentified, but common analytic methods, such as occupancy models, assume that misidentifications do not occur. Unless rare, such misidentifications could lead to incorrect inferences with significant management implications. 2. We fit a false-positive occupancy model to data from paired bat detector and mist-net surveys to estimate probability of presence when survey data may include false positives. We compared estimated occupancy and detection rates to those obtained from a standard occupancy model. We also derived a formula to estimate the probability that bats were present at a site given its detection history. As an example, we analysed survey data for little brown bats Myotis lucifugus from 135 sites in Washington and Oregon, USA. 3. We estimated that at an unoccupied site, acoustic surveys had a 14% chance per night of producing spurious M. lucifugus detections. Estimated detection rates were higher and occupancy rates were lower under the false-positive model, relative to a standard occupancy model. Un-modelled false positives also affected inferences about occupancy at individual sites. For example, probability of occupancy at individual sites with acoustic detections but no captures ranged from 2% to 100% under the false-positive occupancy model, but was always 100% under a standard occupancy model. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest that false positives sufficient to affect inferences may be common in acoustic surveys for bats. We demonstrate an approach that can estimate occupancy, regardless of the false-positive rate, when acoustic surveys are paired with capture surveys. Applications of this approach include monitoring the spread of White-Nose Syndrome, estimating the impact of climate change and informing conservation listing decisions. We calculate a site-specific probability of occupancy, conditional on survey results, which could inform local permitting decisions, such as for wind energy projects. More generally, the magnitude of false positives suggests that false-positive occupancy models can improve accuracy in research and monitoring of bats and provide wildlife managers with more reliable information.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2020

Behavioral responses of sea lamprey to varying application rates of a synthesized pheromone in diverse trapping scenarios

Use of the first fish pheromone biopesticide, 3-keto petromyzonol sulfate (3kPZS) in sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) control requires an understanding of both how the amount 3kPZS applied to a trap relates to catch, and how that relationship varies among stream types. By conducting 3kPZS dose-response experiments over two years and across six varied trapping contexts, we conclude (1) that 3kPZS application is best standardized by how much is emitted from the trap instead of the fully mixed concentration achieved downstream, and (2) that 3kPZS is more effective in wide streams (>30 m). In wide streams, emission of 3kPZS at 50 mg hr. −1 from the trap increased capture rate by 10–15% as sea lamprey were 25–50% more likely to enter the trap after encounter. However, in narrow streams (< 15 m), 50 mg hr. −1 3kPZS generally reduced probabilities of upstream movement, trap encounter, and entrance. While 3kPZS significantly influenced upstream movement, encounter, and capture probabilities, these behaviors were also highly influenced by water temperature, stream width, sea lamprey length, and sex. This study highlights that a pheromone component in a stream environment does not ubiquitously increase trap catch in all contexts, but that where, how, and when the pheromone is applied has major impacts on whether it benefits or hinders trapping efforts.

Journal of Chemical Ecology↗

USGS2024

Physics-based forecasts of eruptive vent locations at calderas

Constraining stresses in the Earth's crust in volcanic regions is critical for understanding many mechanical processes related to eruptive activity. Dike pathways, in particular, are shaped by the orientation of principal stress axes. Therefore, accurate models of dike trajectories and future vent locations rely on accurate estimates of stresses in the subsurface. This work presents a framework for probabilistic constraint of the stress state of calderas by combining three-dimensional physics-based dike pathway models with observed past vent locations using a Monte Carlo approach. The retrieved stress state is then used to produce probability maps of future vent opening across a caldera. We test our stress inversion and vent forecast approach on synthetic scenarios, and find it successful depending on the distribution of the available vents and the complexity of the volcano's structural history. We explore the potential and limitations of the approach, show how its performance is sensitive to the assumptions in the models and available prior information, and discuss how it may be applied to real calderas.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗

USGS1992

New look at regional flood-frequency relations for arid lands

A new method is proposed that combines records for several streamflow-gaging stations, as in the station-year approach, and produces regional flood-frequency relations using an iterative regression technique. This technique eliminates the need to extrapolate the flood-frequency relation to the flood probability of interest. The resulting multiparameter regional flood-frequency relation is based on all the available annual peak-flow data. The method was applied to a group of records from 42 gaging stations in Nevada with many years of no flow and with many poorly defined flood-frquency relations. One- and two-parameter models were developed in which much of the variance in peak discharge is explained by drainage area. The log-Pearson type III and Weibull probability distributions were used in the models. Part of the error is directly assessed using randomly selected subsamples of the annual peak discharges. -from Authors

Journal of Hydraulic Engineering↗

USGS2014

Inference of strata separation and gas emission paths in longwall overburden using continuous wavelet transform of well logs and geostatistical simulation

Prediction of potential methane emission pathways from various sources into active mine workings or sealed gobs from longwall overburden is important for controlling methane and for improving mining safety. The aim of this paper is to infer strata separation intervals and thus gas emission pathways from standard well log data. The proposed technique was applied to well logs acquired through the Mary Lee/Blue Creek coal seam of the Upper Pottsville Formation in the Black Warrior Basin, Alabama, using well logs from a series of boreholes aligned along a nearly linear profile. For this purpose, continuous wavelet transform (CWT) of digitized gamma well logs was performed by using Mexican hat and Morlet, as the mother wavelets, to identify potential discontinuities in the signal. Pointwise Hölder exponents (PHE) of gamma logs were also computed using the generalized quadratic variations (GQV) method to identify the location and strength of singularities of well log signals as a complementary analysis. PHEs and wavelet coefficients were analyzed to find the locations of singularities along the logs. Using the well logs in this study, locations of predicted singularities were used as indicators in single normal equation simulation (SNESIM) to generate equi-probable realizations of potential strata separation intervals. Horizontal and vertical variograms of realizations were then analyzed and compared with those of indicator data and training image (TI) data using the Kruskal–Wallis test. A sum of squared differences was employed to select the most probable realization representing the locations of potential strata separations and methane flow paths. Results indicated that singularities located in well log signals reliably correlated with strata transitions or discontinuities within the strata. Geostatistical simulation of these discontinuities provided information about the location and extents of the continuous channels that may form during mining. If there is a gas source within their zone of influence, paths may develop and allow methane movement towards sealed or active gobs under pressure differentials. Knowledge gained from this research will better prepare mine operations for potential methane inflows, thus improving mine safety.

Journal of Applied Geophysics↗

USGS2020

A multi-state occupancy modelling framework for robust estimation of disease prevalence in multi-tissue disease systems

Given the public health, economic and conservation implications of zoonotic diseases, their effective surveillance is of paramount importance. The traditional approach to estimating pathogen prevalence as the proportion of infected individuals in the population is biased because it fails to account for imperfect detection. A statistically robust way to reduce bias in prevalence estimates is to obtain repeated samples (or sample many tissues in multi‐tissue disease systems) and to apply statistical methods that account for imperfect detection and permit the interdependence of the infection process across multiple tissues. We developed a multi‐state occupancy modelling framework which considers two scenarios about the infection process, one where no assumptions about the dependencies among the tissues are made (general), and another where dependence among tissues is not permitted (constrained). We applied this framework to pseudorabies virus (PrV) DNA detection data obtained from whole blood; and oral, nasal and genital mucosa of 510 feral swine Sus scrofa during the years 2014–2016 in Florida, USA. The constrained model was better supported by data. PrV prevalence estimates varied among tissues and were higher than the naïve estimates, ranging from to 0.06 (CI: 0.02–0.14) in genital to 0.54 (CI: 0.14 ‐ 0.82) in nasal tissue. Probability of PrV detection ranged from 0.11 (CI: 0.06–0.18) in nasal to 0.51 (CI: 0.21–0.81) in genital tissue. PrV prevalence was not affected by the age or sex of the animal or the year of sampling, but prevalence increased as drought severity increased. The conditional probability of detecting PrV given infection in at least one tissue type within an individual was highest for nasal tissue, suggesting that nasal is the best tissue to sample for PrV surveillance if only one tissue can be sampled, at least for systems with tissue‐specific prevalence and detection probabilities similar to ours. Synthesis and applications . We focused on inferences about pathogen prevalence in multi‐tissue disease systems, dealing with both nondetection and potential dependencies among tissues in infection status. We found strong evidence of variation in both prevalence and detection probabilities among tissues. Our results emphasize the importance of sampling multiple tissues and of applying inference methods that account for imperfect detection in the surveillance of systemic diseases. The multi‐state modelling framework is broadly applicable to the surveillance of pathogens that infect multiple tissues and can be used even when the infection status of the pathogen in one tissue may depend on the infection status of the pathogen in other tissue(s).

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2015

Increasing capture efficiency of pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus (Forbes and Richardson, 1905) and the reliability of catch rate estimates

This study evaluated the effects of environmental parameters on the probability of capturing endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) using trotlines in the lower Mississippi River. Pallid sturgeon were sampled by trotlines year round from 2008 to 2011. A logistic regression model indicated water temperature ( T ; P < 0.01) and depth ( D ; P = 0.03) had significant effects on capture probability ( Y = −1.75 − 0.06 T + 0.10 D ). Habitat type, surface current velocity, river stage, stage change and non-sturgeon bycatch were not significant predictors (P = 0.26–0.63). Although pallid sturgeon were caught throughout the year, the model predicted that sampling should focus on times when the water temperature is less than 12°C and in deeper water to maximize capture probability; these water temperature conditions commonly occur during November to March in the lower Mississippi River. Further, the significant effect of water temperature which varies widely over time, as well as water depth indicate that any efforts to use the catch rate to infer population trends will require the consideration of temperature and depth in standardized sampling efforts or adjustment of estimates.

Mississippi↗

USGS2024

Assessing the sustainability of Pacific walrus harvest in a changing environment

Harvest sustainability is a primary goal of wildlife management and conservation, and in a changing world, it is increasingly important to consider environmental drivers of population dynamics alongside harvest in cohesive management plans. This is particularly pertinent for harvested species that acutely experience effects of climate change. The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), a crucial subsistence resource for Indigenous communities, is simultaneously subject to rapid habitat loss associated with diminishing sea ice and an increasing anthropogenic footprint in the Arctic. We developed a theta-logistic population modeling-management framework to evaluate various harvest scenarios combined with 4 potential climate and disturbance scenarios (ranging from optimistic to pessimistic, based largely on sea ice projections from general circulation models) to simulate Pacific walrus population dynamics to the end of the twenty-first century, focusing on the independent-aged female subset of the population. We considered 2 types of harvest strategies: 1) state-dependent harvest scenarios wherein we calculated harvest as a percentage of the population and updated annual harvests at set intervals as the population was reassessed, and 2) annually consistent harvest scenarios wherein annual harvest levels remain consistent into the future. All climate and disturbance scenarios indicated declines of varying severity in Pacific walrus abundance to the end of the twenty-first century, even in the absence of harvest. However, we found that a state-dependent annual harvest of 1.23% of the independent-aged female subset of the population (e.g., 1,280 independent-aged females harvested in 2020, similar to contemporary harvest levels) met our criterion for sustainability under all climate and disturbance scenarios, considering a medium risk tolerance level of 25%. This indicates that the present rate of Pacific walrus harvest is sustainable and will continue to be—provided the population is assessed at regular intervals and harvest is adapted to match changes in population dynamics. Our simulations indicate that a sustainable annually-consistent harvest is also possible but only at low levels if the population declines as expected. Applying a constant annual harvest of 1,280 independent-aged females failed to meet our criterion for sustainability under 3 of the 4 climate and disturbance scenarios we evaluated and had a higher probability of quasi-extinction than an equivalent state-dependent harvest scenario (1.23%). We highlight the importance of state-dependent management strategies and suggest our modeling framework is useful for managing harvest sustainability in a changing climate.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1976

Land subsidence and aquifer-system compaction in the San Jacinto Valley, Riverside County, California - A progress report

Widespread subsidence continues in the San Jacinto structural trough as water levels continue to decline. Subsidence is due principally to the compaction of water-bearing deposits as effective stresses are increased by artesian-head decline. Other possible contributory causes of subsidence are (1) local or regional tectonic adjustments and graben downfaulting, (2) natural compaction of deep water-bearing deposits below the bottom of well casings, and (3) continuing compaction of surficial deposits due to causes other than artesian-head decline. A careful analysis of 4 yr of correlative records of waterlevel, extensometer, and land-surface changes suggests three types of vertical ground movement occurring at the 4S/1W-21N2 recorder site near the San Jacinto reservoir site. The reservoir was drained in October 1973. Listed in descending order of magnitude these are (1) an elastic undulation of the land surface of about 0.06 ft (0.02 m) per year in close response to the roughly 50 ft (15 m) of seasonal water-level fluctuations, (2) a long-term permanent compaction of the deposits in the 0-1,237-ft (0-377-m) zone of about 0.04 ft (0.01 m) per year, and (3) a deep settlement of deposits below the 1,237-ft (377-m) extensometer anchor of 0.01-0.02 ft (0.003-0.006 m) per year, probably caused by continuing downfaulting in the graben trough. The specific compaction of the aquifer system at this site from 1970 to 1974 was about 1.3x 10 -2 (units of compaction per unit of increase in applied stress). The specific, expansion during this period decreased progressively from 1.29x 10 -3 (units of expansion per unit of stress decrease) in 1970-71 to 0.95x10 -3 in 1973-74, suggesting that excess pore pressures in the slow-draining aquitards were not completely dissipated each year.

California↗

USGS2018

Effects of prescribed fire on San Francisco gartersnake survival and movement

The application of fire is prescribed for management of habitats for many plant and animal communities, but its effects on herpetofauna are diverse and remain poorly understood. To date no studies have examined the effects of prescribed fire on endangered San Francisco gartersnake ( Thamnophis sirtalis tetrataenia ) populations, despite a call for prescribed fire in the recovery plan for the species. We used multi‐state capture‐mark‐recapture models to assess whether effects of prescribed fire were ephemeral, occurring only during the year of the fire, or persisted for 3 years following the fire, and to estimate the effects of prescribed fire on demographic parameters of San Francisco gartersnakes inhabiting California coastal prairie. Ephemeral fire effects were better supported for transitions (movement) between burned and unburned areas, but persistent fire effects were better supported for apparent survival and recapture probabilities. Movement between burned and unburned areas decreased during the year of the fire, but transition rates from burned to unburned areas decreased less than transition rates from unburned to burned areas in the year of the fire. Apparent survival probabilities increased in the unburned areas following the fire but were largely unchanged, though more uncertain, in burned areas following the fire. Recapture probabilities decreased site‐wide following the fire, though the decrease was greater in burned areas than in unburned areas. Although imprecise, our estimates of the effects of prescribed fire suggest that under the conditions of this fire (low‐intensity fall burn applied to a small area within a robust population and followed by wet weather), prescribed fire is a viable management tool for maintaining open habitats where San Francisco gartersnakes occur.

California↗

USGS2013

Comparison of electrofishing techniques to detect larval lampreys in wadeable streams in the Pacific Northwest

We evaluated the probability of detecting larval lampreys using different methods of backpack electrofishing in wadeable streams in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Our primary objective was to compare capture of lampreys using electrofishing with standard settings for salmon and trout to settings specifically adapted for capture of lampreys. Field work consisted of removal sampling by means of backpack electrofishing in 19 sites in streams representing a broad range of conditions in the region. Captures of lampreys at these sites were analyzed with a modified removal-sampling model and Bayesian estimation to measure the relative odds of capture using the lamprey-specific settings compared with the standard salmonid settings. We found that the odds of capture were 2.66 (95% credible interval, 0.87–78.18) times greater for the lamprey-specific settings relative to standard salmonid settings. When estimates of capture probability were applied to estimating the probabilities of detection, we found high (>0.80) detectability when the actual number of lampreys in a site was greater than 10 individuals and effort was at least two passes of electrofishing, regardless of the settings used. Further work is needed to evaluate key assumptions in our approach, including the evaluation of individual-specific capture probabilities and population closure. For now our results suggest comparable results are possible for detection of lampreys by using backpack electrofishing with salmonid- or lamprey-specific settings.

Oregon;Washington↗

USGS2010

Design and analysis of simple choice surveys for natural resource management

We used a simple yet powerful method for judging public support for management actions from randomized surveys. We asked respondents to rank choices (representing management regulations under consideration) according to their preference, and we then used discrete choice models to estimate probability of choosing among options (conditional on the set of options presented to respondents). Because choices may share similar unmodeled characteristics, the multinomial logit model, commonly applied to discrete choice data, may not be appropriate. We introduced the nested logit model, which offers a simple approach for incorporating correlation among choices. This forced choice survey approach provides a useful method of gathering public input; it is relatively easy to apply in practice, and the data are likely to be more informative than asking constituents to rate attractiveness of each option separately.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗