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Results for “Journal of Applied Probability”

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USGS1992

New look at regional flood-frequency relations for arid lands

A new method is proposed that combines records for several streamflow-gaging stations, as in the station-year approach, and produces regional flood-frequency relations using an iterative regression technique. This technique eliminates the need to extrapolate the flood-frequency relation to the flood probability of interest. The resulting multiparameter regional flood-frequency relation is based on all the available annual peak-flow data. The method was applied to a group of records from 42 gaging stations in Nevada with many years of no flow and with many poorly defined flood-frquency relations. One- and two-parameter models were developed in which much of the variance in peak discharge is explained by drainage area. The log-Pearson type III and Weibull probability distributions were used in the models. Part of the error is directly assessed using randomly selected subsamples of the annual peak discharges. -from Authors

Journal of Hydraulic Engineering↗

USGS2014

Inference of strata separation and gas emission paths in longwall overburden using continuous wavelet transform of well logs and geostatistical simulation

Prediction of potential methane emission pathways from various sources into active mine workings or sealed gobs from longwall overburden is important for controlling methane and for improving mining safety. The aim of this paper is to infer strata separation intervals and thus gas emission pathways from standard well log data. The proposed technique was applied to well logs acquired through the Mary Lee/Blue Creek coal seam of the Upper Pottsville Formation in the Black Warrior Basin, Alabama, using well logs from a series of boreholes aligned along a nearly linear profile. For this purpose, continuous wavelet transform (CWT) of digitized gamma well logs was performed by using Mexican hat and Morlet, as the mother wavelets, to identify potential discontinuities in the signal. Pointwise Hölder exponents (PHE) of gamma logs were also computed using the generalized quadratic variations (GQV) method to identify the location and strength of singularities of well log signals as a complementary analysis. PHEs and wavelet coefficients were analyzed to find the locations of singularities along the logs. Using the well logs in this study, locations of predicted singularities were used as indicators in single normal equation simulation (SNESIM) to generate equi-probable realizations of potential strata separation intervals. Horizontal and vertical variograms of realizations were then analyzed and compared with those of indicator data and training image (TI) data using the Kruskal–Wallis test. A sum of squared differences was employed to select the most probable realization representing the locations of potential strata separations and methane flow paths. Results indicated that singularities located in well log signals reliably correlated with strata transitions or discontinuities within the strata. Geostatistical simulation of these discontinuities provided information about the location and extents of the continuous channels that may form during mining. If there is a gas source within their zone of influence, paths may develop and allow methane movement towards sealed or active gobs under pressure differentials. Knowledge gained from this research will better prepare mine operations for potential methane inflows, thus improving mine safety.

Journal of Applied Geophysics↗

USGS2024

Physics-based forecasts of eruptive vent locations at calderas

Constraining stresses in the Earth's crust in volcanic regions is critical for understanding many mechanical processes related to eruptive activity. Dike pathways, in particular, are shaped by the orientation of principal stress axes. Therefore, accurate models of dike trajectories and future vent locations rely on accurate estimates of stresses in the subsurface. This work presents a framework for probabilistic constraint of the stress state of calderas by combining three-dimensional physics-based dike pathway models with observed past vent locations using a Monte Carlo approach. The retrieved stress state is then used to produce probability maps of future vent opening across a caldera. We test our stress inversion and vent forecast approach on synthetic scenarios, and find it successful depending on the distribution of the available vents and the complexity of the volcano's structural history. We explore the potential and limitations of the approach, show how its performance is sensitive to the assumptions in the models and available prior information, and discuss how it may be applied to real calderas.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗

USGS2020

A multi-state occupancy modelling framework for robust estimation of disease prevalence in multi-tissue disease systems

Given the public health, economic and conservation implications of zoonotic diseases, their effective surveillance is of paramount importance. The traditional approach to estimating pathogen prevalence as the proportion of infected individuals in the population is biased because it fails to account for imperfect detection. A statistically robust way to reduce bias in prevalence estimates is to obtain repeated samples (or sample many tissues in multi‐tissue disease systems) and to apply statistical methods that account for imperfect detection and permit the interdependence of the infection process across multiple tissues. We developed a multi‐state occupancy modelling framework which considers two scenarios about the infection process, one where no assumptions about the dependencies among the tissues are made (general), and another where dependence among tissues is not permitted (constrained). We applied this framework to pseudorabies virus (PrV) DNA detection data obtained from whole blood; and oral, nasal and genital mucosa of 510 feral swine Sus scrofa during the years 2014–2016 in Florida, USA. The constrained model was better supported by data. PrV prevalence estimates varied among tissues and were higher than the naïve estimates, ranging from to 0.06 (CI: 0.02–0.14) in genital to 0.54 (CI: 0.14 ‐ 0.82) in nasal tissue. Probability of PrV detection ranged from 0.11 (CI: 0.06–0.18) in nasal to 0.51 (CI: 0.21–0.81) in genital tissue. PrV prevalence was not affected by the age or sex of the animal or the year of sampling, but prevalence increased as drought severity increased. The conditional probability of detecting PrV given infection in at least one tissue type within an individual was highest for nasal tissue, suggesting that nasal is the best tissue to sample for PrV surveillance if only one tissue can be sampled, at least for systems with tissue‐specific prevalence and detection probabilities similar to ours. Synthesis and applications . We focused on inferences about pathogen prevalence in multi‐tissue disease systems, dealing with both nondetection and potential dependencies among tissues in infection status. We found strong evidence of variation in both prevalence and detection probabilities among tissues. Our results emphasize the importance of sampling multiple tissues and of applying inference methods that account for imperfect detection in the surveillance of systemic diseases. The multi‐state modelling framework is broadly applicable to the surveillance of pathogens that infect multiple tissues and can be used even when the infection status of the pathogen in one tissue may depend on the infection status of the pathogen in other tissue(s).

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2015

Increasing capture efficiency of pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus (Forbes and Richardson, 1905) and the reliability of catch rate estimates

This study evaluated the effects of environmental parameters on the probability of capturing endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) using trotlines in the lower Mississippi River. Pallid sturgeon were sampled by trotlines year round from 2008 to 2011. A logistic regression model indicated water temperature ( T ; P < 0.01) and depth ( D ; P = 0.03) had significant effects on capture probability ( Y = −1.75 − 0.06 T + 0.10 D ). Habitat type, surface current velocity, river stage, stage change and non-sturgeon bycatch were not significant predictors (P = 0.26–0.63). Although pallid sturgeon were caught throughout the year, the model predicted that sampling should focus on times when the water temperature is less than 12°C and in deeper water to maximize capture probability; these water temperature conditions commonly occur during November to March in the lower Mississippi River. Further, the significant effect of water temperature which varies widely over time, as well as water depth indicate that any efforts to use the catch rate to infer population trends will require the consideration of temperature and depth in standardized sampling efforts or adjustment of estimates.

Mississippi↗

USGS2024

Assessing the sustainability of Pacific walrus harvest in a changing environment

Harvest sustainability is a primary goal of wildlife management and conservation, and in a changing world, it is increasingly important to consider environmental drivers of population dynamics alongside harvest in cohesive management plans. This is particularly pertinent for harvested species that acutely experience effects of climate change. The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), a crucial subsistence resource for Indigenous communities, is simultaneously subject to rapid habitat loss associated with diminishing sea ice and an increasing anthropogenic footprint in the Arctic. We developed a theta-logistic population modeling-management framework to evaluate various harvest scenarios combined with 4 potential climate and disturbance scenarios (ranging from optimistic to pessimistic, based largely on sea ice projections from general circulation models) to simulate Pacific walrus population dynamics to the end of the twenty-first century, focusing on the independent-aged female subset of the population. We considered 2 types of harvest strategies: 1) state-dependent harvest scenarios wherein we calculated harvest as a percentage of the population and updated annual harvests at set intervals as the population was reassessed, and 2) annually consistent harvest scenarios wherein annual harvest levels remain consistent into the future. All climate and disturbance scenarios indicated declines of varying severity in Pacific walrus abundance to the end of the twenty-first century, even in the absence of harvest. However, we found that a state-dependent annual harvest of 1.23% of the independent-aged female subset of the population (e.g., 1,280 independent-aged females harvested in 2020, similar to contemporary harvest levels) met our criterion for sustainability under all climate and disturbance scenarios, considering a medium risk tolerance level of 25%. This indicates that the present rate of Pacific walrus harvest is sustainable and will continue to be—provided the population is assessed at regular intervals and harvest is adapted to match changes in population dynamics. Our simulations indicate that a sustainable annually-consistent harvest is also possible but only at low levels if the population declines as expected. Applying a constant annual harvest of 1,280 independent-aged females failed to meet our criterion for sustainability under 3 of the 4 climate and disturbance scenarios we evaluated and had a higher probability of quasi-extinction than an equivalent state-dependent harvest scenario (1.23%). We highlight the importance of state-dependent management strategies and suggest our modeling framework is useful for managing harvest sustainability in a changing climate.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1976

Land subsidence and aquifer-system compaction in the San Jacinto Valley, Riverside County, California - A progress report

Widespread subsidence continues in the San Jacinto structural trough as water levels continue to decline. Subsidence is due principally to the compaction of water-bearing deposits as effective stresses are increased by artesian-head decline. Other possible contributory causes of subsidence are (1) local or regional tectonic adjustments and graben downfaulting, (2) natural compaction of deep water-bearing deposits below the bottom of well casings, and (3) continuing compaction of surficial deposits due to causes other than artesian-head decline. A careful analysis of 4 yr of correlative records of waterlevel, extensometer, and land-surface changes suggests three types of vertical ground movement occurring at the 4S/1W-21N2 recorder site near the San Jacinto reservoir site. The reservoir was drained in October 1973. Listed in descending order of magnitude these are (1) an elastic undulation of the land surface of about 0.06 ft (0.02 m) per year in close response to the roughly 50 ft (15 m) of seasonal water-level fluctuations, (2) a long-term permanent compaction of the deposits in the 0-1,237-ft (0-377-m) zone of about 0.04 ft (0.01 m) per year, and (3) a deep settlement of deposits below the 1,237-ft (377-m) extensometer anchor of 0.01-0.02 ft (0.003-0.006 m) per year, probably caused by continuing downfaulting in the graben trough. The specific compaction of the aquifer system at this site from 1970 to 1974 was about 1.3x 10 -2 (units of compaction per unit of increase in applied stress). The specific, expansion during this period decreased progressively from 1.29x 10 -3 (units of expansion per unit of stress decrease) in 1970-71 to 0.95x10 -3 in 1973-74, suggesting that excess pore pressures in the slow-draining aquitards were not completely dissipated each year.

California↗

USGS2018

Effects of prescribed fire on San Francisco gartersnake survival and movement

The application of fire is prescribed for management of habitats for many plant and animal communities, but its effects on herpetofauna are diverse and remain poorly understood. To date no studies have examined the effects of prescribed fire on endangered San Francisco gartersnake ( Thamnophis sirtalis tetrataenia ) populations, despite a call for prescribed fire in the recovery plan for the species. We used multi‐state capture‐mark‐recapture models to assess whether effects of prescribed fire were ephemeral, occurring only during the year of the fire, or persisted for 3 years following the fire, and to estimate the effects of prescribed fire on demographic parameters of San Francisco gartersnakes inhabiting California coastal prairie. Ephemeral fire effects were better supported for transitions (movement) between burned and unburned areas, but persistent fire effects were better supported for apparent survival and recapture probabilities. Movement between burned and unburned areas decreased during the year of the fire, but transition rates from burned to unburned areas decreased less than transition rates from unburned to burned areas in the year of the fire. Apparent survival probabilities increased in the unburned areas following the fire but were largely unchanged, though more uncertain, in burned areas following the fire. Recapture probabilities decreased site‐wide following the fire, though the decrease was greater in burned areas than in unburned areas. Although imprecise, our estimates of the effects of prescribed fire suggest that under the conditions of this fire (low‐intensity fall burn applied to a small area within a robust population and followed by wet weather), prescribed fire is a viable management tool for maintaining open habitats where San Francisco gartersnakes occur.

California↗

USGS2013

Comparison of electrofishing techniques to detect larval lampreys in wadeable streams in the Pacific Northwest

We evaluated the probability of detecting larval lampreys using different methods of backpack electrofishing in wadeable streams in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Our primary objective was to compare capture of lampreys using electrofishing with standard settings for salmon and trout to settings specifically adapted for capture of lampreys. Field work consisted of removal sampling by means of backpack electrofishing in 19 sites in streams representing a broad range of conditions in the region. Captures of lampreys at these sites were analyzed with a modified removal-sampling model and Bayesian estimation to measure the relative odds of capture using the lamprey-specific settings compared with the standard salmonid settings. We found that the odds of capture were 2.66 (95% credible interval, 0.87–78.18) times greater for the lamprey-specific settings relative to standard salmonid settings. When estimates of capture probability were applied to estimating the probabilities of detection, we found high (>0.80) detectability when the actual number of lampreys in a site was greater than 10 individuals and effort was at least two passes of electrofishing, regardless of the settings used. Further work is needed to evaluate key assumptions in our approach, including the evaluation of individual-specific capture probabilities and population closure. For now our results suggest comparable results are possible for detection of lampreys by using backpack electrofishing with salmonid- or lamprey-specific settings.

Oregon;Washington↗

USGS2010

Design and analysis of simple choice surveys for natural resource management

We used a simple yet powerful method for judging public support for management actions from randomized surveys. We asked respondents to rank choices (representing management regulations under consideration) according to their preference, and we then used discrete choice models to estimate probability of choosing among options (conditional on the set of options presented to respondents). Because choices may share similar unmodeled characteristics, the multinomial logit model, commonly applied to discrete choice data, may not be appropriate. We introduced the nested logit model, which offers a simple approach for incorporating correlation among choices. This forced choice survey approach provides a useful method of gathering public input; it is relatively easy to apply in practice, and the data are likely to be more informative than asking constituents to rate attractiveness of each option separately.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2015

Spatial occupancy models for predicting metapopulation dynamics and viability following reintroduction

The reintroduction of a species into its historic range is a critical component of conservation programmes designed to restore extirpated metapopulations. However, many reintroduction efforts fail, and the lack of rigorous monitoring programmes and statistical models have prevented a general understanding of the factors affecting metapopulation viability following reintroduction. Spatially explicit metapopulation theory provides the basis for understanding the dynamics of fragmented populations linked by dispersal, but the theory has rarely been used to guide reintroduction programmes because most spatial metapopulation models require presence–absence data from every site in the network, and they do not allow for observation error such as imperfect detection. We develop a spatial occupancy model that relaxes these restrictive assumptions and allows for inference about metapopulation extinction risk and connectivity. We demonstrate the utility of the model using six years of data on the Chiricahua leopard frog Lithobates chiricahuensis , a threatened desert-breeding amphibian that was reintroduced to a network of sites in Arizona USA in 2003. Our results indicate that the model can generate precise predictions of extinction risk and produce connectivity maps that can guide conservation efforts following reintroduction. In the case of L. chiricahuensis , many sites were functionally isolated, and 82% of sites were characterized by intermittent water availability and high local extinction probabilities (0·84, 95% CI: 0·64–0·99). However, under the current hydrological conditions and spatial arrangement of sites, the risk of metapopulation extinction is estimated to be <3% over a 50-year time horizon. Low metapopulation extinction risk appears to result from the high dispersal capability of the species, the high density of sites in the region and the existence of predator-free permanent wetlands with low local extinction probabilities. Should management be required, extinction risk can be reduced by either increasing the hydroperiod of existing sites or by creating new sites to increase connectivity. Synthesis and applications . This work demonstrates how spatio-temporal statistical models based on ecological theory can be applied to forecast the outcomes of conservation actions such as reintroduction. Our spatial occupancy model should be particularly useful when management agencies lack the funds to collect intensive individual-level data.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2022

Combining fixed-location count data and movement data to estimate abundance of a lake sturgeon spawning run

Estimating abundance of migrating fishes is challenging. While sonars can be deployed continuously, improper assumptions about unidirectional migration and complete spatial coverage can lead to inaccurate estimates. To address these challenges, we present a framework for combining fixed-location count data from a dual-frequency identification sonar (DIDSON) with movement data from acoustic telemetry to estimate spawning run abundance of lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ). Acoustic telemetry data were used to estimate the probability of observing a lake sturgeon on the DIDSON and to determine the probability that a lake sturgeon passing the DIDSON site had passed the site previously during the season. Combining probabilities with DIDSON counts, using a Bayesian integrated model, we estimated the following abundances: 99 (42–215 credible interval, CI) in 2017, 131 (82–248 CI) in 2018, and 92 (47–184 CI) in 2019. Adding movement data generated better inferences on count data by incorporating fish behavior (e.g., multiple migrations in a single season) and its uncertainty into abundance estimates. This framework can be applied to count and movement data to estimate abundance of spawning runs of other migratory fishes in riverine systems.

Vermont↗

USGS2018

Full-range, solar-reflected hyperspectral microscopy to support earth remote sensing research

Over the past 20 years, hyperspectral microscopy has grown into a robust field of analysis for a number of applications. The visible to near-infrared (VNIR; 400 to 1000 nm) region of the spectrum has demonstrated utility for the characterization of healthy and diseased tissue and of biomolecular indicators at the cellular level. Here, we describe the development of a hyperspectral imaging (HSI) microscope that is aimed at material characterization to complement traditional stand-off, earth remote sensing with hyperspectral sensors. We combine commercial off the shelf technology to build an HSI microscope to collect spectral data with illumination provided by a tunable laser. Hyperspectral imaging microscopy (HIM) facilitates detailed examination of target materials at the subcentimeter spatial scale. The custom-built, laser illumination HSI microscope covers the NIR to shortwave infrared (NIR/SWIR; 900 to 2500 nm) solar-reflected spectral range. It is combined with a separate VNIR sensor (400 to 900 nm) that utilizes quartz–tungsten–halogen lamps for illumination. The combined sensors provide a means to collect <10,000 s of spectra in the full VNIR/SWIR spectral range from both pure substances and precisely engineered linear and nonlinear mixtures. The large abundance of spectra allows for a more detailed understanding of the variability and multivariate probability distributions of spectral signatures. This additional information aids in understanding the variability observed in ground truth spectra collected from portable spectrometers, and it greatly enhances sample description and metadata content. In addition, HIM data cubes can serve as proxies, as “microscenes,” for systems engineering applications such as trade studies for HSI acquired by air- and space-borne sensors.

Journal of Applied Remote Sensing↗

USGS2023

Eruption of stagnant lava from an inactive perched lava lake

Lava flow hazards are usually thought to end when the erupting vent becomes inactive, but this is not always the case. At Kīlauea in August 2014, a spiny ʻaʻā flow erupted from the levee of a crusted perched lava lake that had been inactive for a month, and the surface of the lava lake subsided as the flow advanced downslope over the following few days. Topography constructed from oblique aerial photographs using structure-from-motion (SfM) software shows that the volume of the flow (∼68,000 m 3 ) closely matches the volume of subsidence of the crusted lava lake (∼64,000 m 3 ). The similarity of these volumes, along with the textural characteristics of the lava, shows that the lava that fed the flow had been stored beneath the surface of the perched lava lake, and that the flow was not generated by reactivation of the vent. This extends the duration of the local lava flow hazard presented by perched lava lakes and similar flow field structures that store lava, such as rootless shields. The flow probably occurred because the density of the lava beneath the crusted surface of the perched lava lake increased through loss of gas bubbles until it was able to penetrate the less-dense levee, which was composed of relatively vesicular overflows. The flow is thus equivalent to the lava seeps described previously at Kīlauea and elsewhere. We present a simple physical model for the pressure change at the base of a densifying body of lava, which we apply to this case study, and which could be applied to similar scenarios elsewhere.

Hawaii↗

USGS2001

Impact of competitor species composition on predicting diameter growth and survival rates of Douglas-fir trees in southwestern Oregon

Mixed conifer and hardwood stands in southwestern Oregon were studied to explore the hypothesis that competition effects on individual-tree growth and survival will differ according to the species comprising the competition measure. Likewise, it was hypothesized that competition measures should extrapolate best if crown-based surrogates are given preference over diameter-based (basal area based) surrogates. Diameter growth and probability of survival were modeled for individual Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) trees growing in pure stands. Alternative models expressing one-sided and two-sided competition as a function of either basal area or crown structure were then applied to other plots in which Douglas-fir was mixed with other conifers and (or) hardwood species. Crown-based variables outperformed basal area based variables as surrogates for one-sided competition in both diameter growth and survival probability, regardless of species composition. In contrast, two-sided competition was best represented by total basal area of competing trees. Surrogates reflecting differences in crown morphology among species relate more closely to the mechanics of competition for light and, hence, facilitate extrapolation to species combinations for which no observations are available.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗

USGS1983

Effects of roads on small mammals

(1) The study was designed to determine the effects of roads on the diversity, spatial distribution, and density of small mammals. (2) Forty species of small mammal (5859 individuals) were snap-trapped in the study. Data resulted from 144 360 trap-nights of effort for an average of 4.06 captures per 100 trap-nights. (3) Small mammal community structure and density were both influenced by roads. Community structure in right-of-way (ROW) habitat was different from that in adjacent habitat. Five species did not prefer ROW habitat: the golden mouse, dusky-footed woodrat, brush mouse, pinon mouse, and California red-backed vole. However, there were more species present in ROW habitat than in adjacent habitat. Grassland species generally preferred ROW habitat and many less habitat-specific species were distributed in ROW and adjacent habitat. (4) Small mammal density (all species combined) was greater in interstate ROW habitat than in adjacent habitat. This was also true individually for the eastern harvest mouse, white-footed mouse, meadow vole, prairie vole, vagrant shrew. Townsend's vole, and California vole. Small mammal density was less in county road ROWs than in adjacent habitat, probably because of the small size of these areas. The data indicate that ROW habitat and its accompanying edge are attractive no: only to grassland species but also to many less habitat-specific species that make use of the ROW-edge-adjacent habitat complex. (5) Mortality on interstate highways was greatest for those species with highest densities in ROW habitat, and did not appear to be detrimental to populations of these species.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2008

Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on a simplified viscoelastic cycle model of fault interactions

We construct a viscoelastic cycle model of plate boundary deformation that includes the effect of time-dependent interseismic strain accumulation, coseismic strain release, and viscoelastic relaxation of the substrate beneath the seismogenic crust. For a given fault system, time-averaged stress changes at any point (not on a fault) are constrained to zero; that is, kinematic consistency is enforced for the fault system. The dates of last rupture, mean recurrence times, and the slip distributions of the (assumed) repeating ruptures are key inputs into the viscoelastic cycle model. This simple formulation allows construction of stress evolution at all points in the plate boundary zone for purposes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Stress evolution is combined with a Coulomb failure stress threshold at representative points on the fault segments to estimate the times of their respective future ruptures. In our PSHA we consider uncertainties in a four-dimensional parameter space: the rupture peridocities, slip distributions, time of last earthquake (for prehistoric ruptures) and Coulomb failure stress thresholds. We apply this methodology to the San Francisco Bay region using a recently determined fault chronology of area faults. Assuming single-segment rupture scenarios, we find that fature rupture probabilities of area faults in the coming decades are the highest for the southern Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and northern Calaveras faults. This conclusion is qualitatively similar to that of Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, but the probabilities derived here are significantly higher. Given that fault rupture probabilities are highly model-dependent, no single model should be used to assess to time-dependent rupture probabilities. We suggest that several models, including the present one, be used in a comprehensive PSHA methodology, as was done by Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2022

Density surface and excursion sets modeling as an approach to estimating population densities

Effective species management and conservation require knowledge of species distribution and status. We used point-transect distance sampling surveys of the endangered palila ( Loxioides bailleui ), a honeycreeper currently found only on the Island of Hawai'i, USA, to generate robust estimates of total abundance and simultaneously model the distribution, abundance, and spatial correlation of the species as a density surface model (DSM). Point-transect distance sampling is a widely applied method to estimate bird densities accounting for imperfect detection probability. For the DSM we used a generalized additive model framework and soap film smoothers to control the effects of boundary features. This modeling approach allowed us to account for imperfect detection and propagate detection probability uncertainty. We compared the uncertainty in palila abundance estimates using standard point-transect distance sampling to estimates from the DSM. The DSM, accounting for both distance-sampling-derived detection probability variance and the generalized additive model density estimate variance, did not improve population estimator precision; however, it provided insight into the species' distribution, density, and uncertainty. We also applied excursion sets analysis to objectively identify areas where the species occurs in high densities. The 2017 global population of <2,000 individuals was limited to an excursion area of 1,500 ha. Our findings can help management and regulatory agencies by simultaneously mapping a species' distribution and density, improving survey protocols, and providing information important to species conservation.

Hawaii↗