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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Counterfactuals to assess effects to species and systems from renewable energy development

Renewable energy production, mostly via wind, solar, and biofuels, is central to goals worldwide to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate anthropogenic climate change (IPCC, 2014; Pörtner et al., 2021). Nevertheless, adverse impacts to natural systems, especially fatalities of wildlife and alteration of habitat, are key challenges for renewable energy production (Allison et al., 2019; Katzner et al., 2019). Because of the magnitude of these challenges, extensive effort has been invested in surveys and science to understand the environmental effects of renewable energy on species and systems. Nevertheless, these impacts have not been formally compared relative to counterfactual conditions (Bull et al., 2021; Coetzee and Gaston, 2021), i.e., those occurring in the absence of renewable energy. As such, cumulative ecological impact assessments required by many regulating agencies typically only consider the adverse impacts of renewables, without evaluating whether mitigative effects of current and planned build-out (e.g., Larson et al., 2020) will offset their adverse impacts to species and natural systems (Allison et al., 2014). Accordingly, these critical decision processes have an insufficient perspective to foster fully informed decisions, and, for some species or systems, renewable energy could lead to more profound impacts than those it is intended to prevent. Furthermore, because of this approach and, despite the well-studied benefits to society of renewable energy development (IPCC, 2014), the ecological value of renewable energy is often premised on the plausible but untested assumption that its negative effects to natural populations and systems are less consequential than the negative effects in alternative scenarios with less renewable energy and greater climate change. A more comprehensive framing of the counterfactual in cumulative ecological impact assessments would evaluate, for each species or system, the incremental effects of renewables over their full life cycle against the incremental effects they provide by mitigating climate change. This framing is important because a given species or system may see net positive or net negative effects from either renewables or climate change. Furthermore, cumulative impact assessments could identify optimized tradeoffs that balance, for each species or system, the effects of both climate change and renewable energy.

Frontiers in Conservation Science↗
USGS2020

Bellwether sites for evaluating changes in landslide frequency and magnitude in cryospheric mountainous terrain: A call for systematic, long-term observations to decipher the impact of climate change

Permafrost and glaciers are being degraded by the warming effects of climate change. The impact that this degradation has on slope stability in mountainous terrain is the subject of ongoing research efforts. The relatively new availability of high-resolution (≤ 10 m) imagery with worldwide coverage and short (≤ 30 days) repeat acquisition times, as well as the emerging field of environmental seismology, presents opportunities for making remote, systematic observations of landslides in cryospheric mountainous terrain. I reviewed the literature and evaluated landslide activity in existing imagery to select five ~ 5000-km 2 sites where long-term, systematic observations could take place. The five proposed sites are the northern and eastern flanks of the Northern Patagonia Ice Field, the Western European Alps, the eastern Karakoram Range in the Himalayan Mountains, the Southern Alps of New Zealand, and the Fairweather Range in Southeast Alaska. Systematic observations of landslide occurrence, triggers, size, and travel distance at these sites, especially if coupled with observations from in situ instrumental monitoring, could lead to a better understanding of changes in slope stability induced by climate change. The suggested sites are not meant to be absolute and unalterable. Rather, they are intended as a starting point and discussion starter for new work in this expanding landslide research frontier.

Landslides↗
USGS2020

Organic matter integration, overprinting, and the relative fraction of optically active organic carbon in a human-impacted watershed

Rivers continually integrate terrestrial organic matter (OM) into their waters, in a process that transfers 1.9 Pg C yr –1 as the primary linkage between oceanic and terrestrial carbon cycles. Yet rivers are not simple, conservative OM integrators. Patchy local land uses (wetlands, bogs, agriculture) release OM that can disproportionately alter river biogeochemistry and overprint upstream carbon. These releases are quantifiable at the plot scale but remain unpredictable across river reaches and watersheds, critically inhibiting our ability to scale up terrestrial-aquatic linkages to regional/global carbon cycling models. We evaluated OM overprinting distance along a human-influenced watershed to quantify river integration of terrestrial OM and to bridge the quantification gap between habitats and waterway biogeochemistry. We investigated changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition (lignin phenols, fluorescence excitation-emission spectra using parallel factor analysis [PARAFAC], and the relative fraction of optically active DOM [EEM DOC ]). DOC concentrations increased continually ( p < 0.001) downstream, from median 1.0 mg L –1 at 30 km (headwaters) to 3.3 mg L –1 at the river mouth. This rate of increase corresponded to a DOC overprinting distance—the longitudinal distance over which DOC concentrations double—of 13 km. Mainstem DOC overprinting distance ranged from 8 km (winter, rainy season) to 21 km (summer, dry season with irrigation), highlighting stronger overprinting during increased hydraulic connectivity. Stronger overprinting also correlated to higher EEM DOC ( p < 0.001). Overprinting distance effectively quantifies river integration of DOM along the terrestrial-aquatic interface, helping to refine bottom-up carbon cycle estimates, inform upscaling of site-specific fluxes, and to track land use and climate influence on river biogeochemistry.

California↗
USGS2023

Mortality thresholds of juvenile trees to drought and heatwaves: Implications for forest regeneration across a landscape gradient

Tree loss is increasing rapidly due to drought- and heat-related mortality and intensifying fire activity. Consequently, the fate of many forests depends on the ability of juvenile trees to withstand heightened climate and disturbance anomalies. Extreme climatic events, such as droughts and heatwaves, are increasing in frequency and severity, and trees in mountainous regions must contend with these landscape-level climate episodes. Recent research focuses on how mortality of individual tree species may be driven by drought and heatwaves, but how juvenile mortality under these conditions would vary among species spanning an elevational gradient—given concurrent variation in climate, ecohydrology, and physiology–remains unclear. We address this knowledge gap by implementing a growth chamber study, imposing extreme drought with and without a compounding heatwave, for juveniles of five species that span a forested life zones in the Southwestern United States. Overall, the length of a progressive drought required to trigger mortality differed by up to 20 weeks among species. Inclusion of a heatwave hastened mean time to mortality for all species by about 1 week. Lower-elevation species that grow in warmer ambient conditions died earlier ( Pinus ponderosa in 10 weeks, Pinus edulis in 14 weeks) than did higher-elevation species from cooler ambient conditions ( Picea engelmannii and Pseudotsuga menziesii in 19 weeks, and Pinus flexilis in 30 weeks). When exposed to a heatwave in conjunction with drought, mortality advanced significantly only for species from cooler ambient conditions ( Pinus flexilis : 2.7 weeks earlier; Pseudotsuga menziesii : 2.0 weeks earlier). Cooler ambient temperatures may have buffered against moisture loss during drought, resulting in longer survival of higher-elevation species despite expected drought tolerance of lower-elevation species due to tree physiology. Our study suggests that droughts will play a leading role in juvenile tree mortality and will most directly impact species at warmer climate thresholds, with heatwaves in tandem with drought potentially exacerbating mortality especially of high elevation species. These responses are relevant for assessing the potential success of both natural and managed reforestation, as differential juvenile survival following episodic extreme events will determine future landscape-scale vegetation trajectories under changing climate.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change↗
USGS2020

Accounting for temporal variability of streamflow in estimates of travel time

Retention, processing, and transport of solutes and particulates in stream corridors are influenced by the travel time of streamflow through stream channels, which varies dynamically with discharge. The effects of streamflow variability across sites and over time cannot be addressed by time-averaged models if parameters are based solely on the characteristics of mean streamflow. We develop methods to account for the effects of streamflow variability on travel time and compare our estimates to flow-weighted (“effective”) travel time at 100 streams in the southeastern United States. Velocity time series were generated for each stream from multiple-year (median 15.5 years), high-frequency (15 min interval) records of instantaneous streamflow and field measurements of velocity and inverted to produce time series of specific travel time [T/L]. The effective travel times for streams are 60–90% of the specific travel time of mean streamflow because a large fraction of the total streamflow volume is discharged during higher flows with higher velocities. We find that adjusting the specific travel time of mean streamflow at a site by a factor of 0.81 generally accounts for the effect of a skewed streamflow distribution, but at-site estimates of the coefficient of variation of streamflow are necessary to resolve differences in streamflow variability between streams or changes in variability over time. For example, the effective travel time of urban streams is less than the effective travel of forested streams in the southeastern United States as a result of increased streamflow variability in urban streams. Effective travel time accounts for both the variation in velocity with streamflow and the large fraction of streamflow discharged during high flows in most streams and provides time-averaged models with limited capability to account for effects of streamflow variability that otherwise they lack. This capability is needed for continental-scale modeling where streamflow variability is not uniform because of heterogeneous surficial geology, hydro-climatology, and vegetation and for applications where streamflow variability is not stationary as a response to climate change or hydrologic alteration.

Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, South ↗
USGS2020

Components and predictors of biological soil crusts vary at the regional vs. plant community scales

Although biological soil crusts (biocrusts) occur globally in arid and semi-arid environments, most of our knowledge of biocrust cover and ecology is from a relatively small number of locations worldwide. Some plant communities are known to have high cover of biocrusts, but the abundance of biocrusts is largely undocumented in most plant communities. Using a data driven approach, we identified 16 plant communities based on plant cover from the Assessment, Inventory, and Monitoring Strategy data from the Bureau of Land Management (AIM, 5,200 plots). We found that abundance of lichens and mosses varies among communities, but that both components of biocrusts are present in all plant communities. Biocrusts are indicators of two of these communities: one that is defined by high cover of mosses and basin big sagebrush and one that is defined by high cover of lichens and shadscale saltbush. Using non-parametric multiplicative regression, we evaluated a suite of abiotic and disturbance variables to assess the degree to which climate and soils are associated with the abundance of lichens and mosses at the regional scale. At the regional scale, soil depth and maximum vapor pressure deficit were found to be strongly associated with the abundance of lichens and January minimum temperature dictated the abundance of mosses. At the scale of plant communities, community specific metrics of soils and climate were better able to explain the abundance of biocrusts. Our demonstration of the presence of biocrusts across the western US suggests that studies on ecosystem function could include these organisms because they are present in all plant communities, maintain arguably stronger associations with climatic variation, are directly associated with soils, and contribute to ecosystem functions that are not solely maintained by vascular plants.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2020

Validating climate‐change refugia: Empirical bottom‐up approaches to support management actions

Efforts to conserve biodiversity increasingly focus on identifying climate‐change refugia – areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable species persistence. Identification of refugia typically includes modeling the distribution of a species’ current habitat and then extrapolating that distribution given projected changes in temperature and precipitation, or by mapping topographic features that buffer species from regional climate extremes. However, the function of those hypothesized refugia must be validated (or challenged) with independent data not used in the initial identification of the refugia. Although doing so would facilitate the incorporation of climate‐change refugia into conservation and management decision making, a synthesis of validation methods is currently lacking. We reviewed the literature and defined four methods to test refugia predictions. We propose that such bottom‐up approaches can lead to improved protected‐area designations and on‐the‐ground management actions to reduce influences from non‐climate stressors within potential refugia.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2020

Genetic and environmental indicators of climate change vulnerability for desert bighorn sheep

Assessments of organisms’ vulnerability to potential climatic shifts are increasingly common. Such assessments are often conducted at the species level and focused primarily on the magnitude of anticipated climate change (i.e., climate exposure). However, wildlife management would benefit from population-level assessments that also incorporate measures of local or regional potential for organismal adaptation to change. Estimates of genetic diversity, gene flow, and landscape connectivity can address this need and complement climate exposure estimates to establish management priorities at broad to local scales. We provide an example of this holistic approach for desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis nelsoni ) within and surrounding lands administered by the U.S. National Park Service. We used genetic and environmental data from 62 populations across the southwestern U.S. to delineate genetic structure, evaluate relationships between genetic diversity and isolation, and estimate relative climate vulnerability for populations as a function of five variables associated with species’ responses to climate change: genetic diversity, genetic isolation, geographic isolation, forward climate velocity within a population’s habitat patch (a measure of geographic movement rate required for an organism to maintain constant climate conditions), and maximum elevation within the habitat patch (a measure of current climate stress, as lower maximum elevation is associated with higher temperature, lower precipitation, and lower population persistence). Genetic structure analyses revealed a high-level division between populations in southeastern Utah and populations in the remainder of the study area, which were further differentiated into four lower-level genetic clusters. Genetic diversity decreased with population isolation, whereas genetic differentiation increased, but these patterns were stronger for native populations than for translocated populations. Populations exhibited large variation in predicted vulnerability across the study area with respect to all variables, but native populations occupying relatively intact landscapes, such as Death Valley and Grand Canyon national parks, had the lowest overall vulnerability. These results provide local and regional context for conservation and management decisions regarding bighorn populations in a changing climate. Our study further demonstrates how assessments combining multiple factors could allow a more integrated response, such as increasing efforts to maintain connectivity and thus potential for adaptation in areas experiencing rapid climate change.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2022

Temporal coherence patterns of prairie pothole wetlands indicate the importance of landscape linkages and wetland heterogeneity in maintaining biodiversity

Wetland ecosystems are diverse, productive habitats that are essential reservoirs of biodiversity. Not only are they home to numerous wetland-specialist species, but they also provide food, water, and shelter that support terrestrial wildlife populations. However, like observed patterns of biodiversity loss, wetland habitats have experienced widespread loss and degradation. In order to conserve and restore wetlands, and thereby the biodiversity they support, it is important to understand how biodiversity in wetland habitats is maintained. Habitat heterogeneity and connectivity are thought to be predominate drivers of wetland biodiversity. We quantified temporal coherence (i.e., spatial synchrony) of wetland invertebrate communities using intra-class correlations among 16 wetlands sampled continuously over 24 years to better understand the relative influences wetland heterogeneity (i.e., internal processes specific to individual wetlands and spatial connectivity and external processes occurring on the landscape) on wetland biodiversity. We found that while wetlands with different ponded-water regimes (temporarily ponded or permanently ponded) often hosted different invertebrate communities, temporal shifts in invertebrate composition were synchronous. We also found the relative importance of internal versus external forces in determining community assembly vary depending on a wetland’s hydrologic function and climate influences. Our results confirm that heterogeneity and spatial connectivity of wetland landscapes are important drivers of wetland biodiversity.

North Dakota↗
USGS2025

Biologging to identify nesting and non-nesting emergences for four species of imperiled sea turtles

Quantifying sea turtle nesting behavior is essential for recovery planning and evaluating management actions. Traditional monitoring approaches, based on nest counts from beach surveys, can misclassify non-nesting emergences, obscure true fecundity, and underestimate clutch frequency, metrics that directly influence population models and regulatory decisions. Here, we demonstrate that high-resolution acceleration data loggers (ADLs) can reliably discriminate nesting from non-nesting emergences across four imperiled species of sea turtles at sites in the Gulf of America, southeast USA, and Caribbean. From 60 recovered ADL deployments on green ( Chelonia mydas ; N = 10), hawksbill ( Eretmochelys imbricata ; N = 7), Kemp’s ridley ( Lepidochelys kempii ; N = 21), and loggerhead sea turtles ( Caretta caretta ; N = 22) lasting on average 17.5 ± 8.7 days (range 2–43 days), we identified 54 nesting events and 76 non-nesting emergences, with >97% accuracy when compared to direct observations. These data provide the first observer-validated, species-specific behavioral signatures of nesting phases and reveal correlations between egg-laying duration and clutch size. All non-nesting emergences occurred within 72 hours of subsequent nesting, allowing managers to anticipate nest deposition windows. By refining inter-nesting intervals and fecundity estimates, ADLs offer a practical path to reduce error in clutch frequency estimates. The integration of ADL-derived algorithms with satellite-transmitting tags would enable the remote, real-time monitoring of nesting activity, creating a system for the remote monitoring of inter-nesting intervals and nest fecundity that are crucial to quantify the impacts of climate change and other threats to sea turtle nesting habitat.

Alabama, Florida, North Carolina, Texas↗
USGS2021

A Next Generation Lunar Orbiter mission

The Moon is the scientific foundation for our knowledge of the early evolution and impact history of the terrestrial planets. Over the last decades the lunar science community has made significant progress in addressing key lunar science and exploration goals, while defining many new high-priority scientific questions regarding the formation and evolution of the Moon. On a broad scale, the last Planetary Decadal Survey defined three scientific objectives to guide studies of the inner planets and Moon. These objectives address the origins and diversity of terrestrial planets, the evolution of life on terrestrial planets, and climate processes on Earth-like planets [1]. Many of these objectives carry forward into exploration goals of a renewed lunar human exploration program, and urgently addressing these objectives will enable the rapid development of exploration plans. A large (Flagship or New Frontiers class) Next Generation Lunar Orbiter (NGLO) mission would address the last Planetary Decadal Survey objective of understanding the origin and diversity of terrestrial planets by studying the geochemistry and geology of the Moon at an unparalleled resolution compared to other lunar mission datasets. Also, NGLO would address the objective of studying the evolution of life on terrestrial planets by furthering knowledge about the composition and distribution of volatile elements on the lunar surface and better characterizing the past and present-day impact rates in the inner Solar System in order to better understand the original delivery of water to Earth. Key exploration goals, including identifying the nature and distribution of lunar volatiles (i.e., water, ice), mapping and characterizing potentially valuable lunar resources, and establishing a human presence on the Moon, also would be addressed by NGLO.

Bulletin of the AAS↗
USGS2014

Adélie penguins coping with environmental change: Results from a natural experiment at the edge of their breeding range

We investigated life history responses to extreme variation in physical environmental conditions during a long-term demographic study of Adélie penguins at 3 colonies representing 9% of the world population and the full range of breeding colony sizes. Five years into the 14-year study (1997–2010) two very large icebergs (spanning 1.5 latitude degrees in length) grounded in waters adjacent to breeding colonies, dramatically altering environmental conditions during 2001–2005. This natural experiment allowed us to evaluate the relative impacts of expected long-term, but also extreme, short-term climate perturbations on important natural history parameters that can regulate populations. The icebergs presented physical barriers, not just to the penguins but to polynya formation, which profoundly increased foraging effort and movement rates, while reducing breeding propensity and productivity, especially at the smallest colony. We evaluated the effect of a variety of environmental parameters during breeding, molt, migration and wintering periods during years with and without icebergs on penguin breeding productivity, chick mass, and nesting chronology. The icebergs had far more influence on the natural history parameters of penguins than any of the other environmental variables measured, resulting in population level changes to metrics of reproductive performance, including delays in nesting chronology, depressed breeding productivity, and lower chick mass. These effects were strongest at the smallest, southern-most colony, which was most affected by alteration of the Ross Sea Polynya during years the iceberg was present. Additionally, chick mass was negatively correlated with colony size, supporting previous findings indicating density-dependent energetic constraints at the largest colony. Understanding the negative effects of the icebergs on the short-term natural history of Adélie penguins, as well as their response to long-term environmental variation, are important to our overall understanding of climate change effects in this and other species facing both rapid and persistent environmental change.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2020

Persist in place or shift in space? Evaluating the adaptive capacity of species to climate change

Assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change serves as the basis for climate‐adaptation planning and climate‐smart conservation, and typically involves an evaluation of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (AC). AC is a species’ ability to cope with or adjust to changing climatic conditions, and is the least understood and most inconsistently applied of these three factors. We propose an attribute‐based framework for evaluating the AC of species, identifying two general classes of adaptive responses: “persist in place” and “shift in space”. Persist‐in‐place attributes enable species to survive in situ, whereas the shift‐in‐space response emphasizes attributes that facilitate tracking of suitable bioclimatic conditions. We provide guidance for assessing AC attributes and demonstrate the framework's application for species with disparate life histories. Results illustrate the broad utility of this generalized framework for informing adaptation planning and guiding species conservation in a rapidly changing climate.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2026

Pliocene (Piacenzian) planktic foraminiferal biogeography: Insights into how planktic biogeography is linked to climate and socioeconomic impacts on marine ecosystems

The Piacenzian Age (3.60–2.58 Ma) of the Pliocene Epoch was characterized by globally warmer climates, higher sea levels, and atmospheric CO 2 similar to present. Utilizing a robust dataset of 2,101 samples and over 637,000 foraminifer specimens from 77 deep-sea core sites worldwide, we document planktic foraminifer biogeography and biodiversity during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP). Cluster analysis and multidimensional scaling reveal five major bioregions: tropical, warm subtropical, transitional, polar, and a distinct North Atlantic polar bioregion. Each bioregion was dominated by characteristic species with well-established temperature preferences. Analyses demonstrate higher species richness and evenness in low and mid-latitudes, with increased diversity associated with periods of climatic warming and poleward expansion of warm water assemblages. The long-term stability of biogeographic patterns underscores ecological conservatism but also highlights potential vulnerability to rapid anthropogenic climate change. Our findings emphasize the critical role of planktic foraminifers in reconstructing past ocean conditions and offer valuable insights into links between planktic biogeography, climate, and socioeconomic impacts on marine ecosystems. This work advances our understanding of marine ecosystem responses to climate extremes and provides a foundation for future regional and temporal analyses of planktic foraminifer biogeography under global change scenarios.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2023

Spatio-temporal variability in the strength, directionality, and relative importance of climate on occupancy and population densities in a philopatric mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps)

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely employed to evaluate species–environment relationships. However, when extrapolated over broad spatial scales or through time, these models decline in their predictive ability due to variation in how species respond to their environment. Many models assume species–environment relationships remain constant over space and time, hindering their ability to accurately forecast distributions. Therefore, there is growing recognition that models could be improved by accounting for spatio-temporal nonstationarity – a phenomenon wherein the factors governing ecological processes change over space or time. Here, we investigated nonstationarity in American pika ( Ochotona princeps ) relationships with climatic variables in the Rocky Mountains (USA). We first compared broad-scale differences in pika–climate patterns for occupancy and population density across the Southern, Central, and Northern Rockies. Next, we investigated within-ecoregion variation across four mountain ranges nested within the Northern Rockies. Lastly, we tested whether species–climate relationships changed over time within the Central Rockies ecoregion. Across all analyses, we found varying levels of nonstationarity among the climate metrics for both occupancy and density. Although we found general congruence in temperature metrics, which consistently had negative coefficients, and moisture metrics (e.g., relative humidity), which had positive coefficients, nonstationarity was greatest for summer and winter precipitation over both space and time. These results suggest that interpretations from one ecoregion should not be applied to other regions universally – especially when using precipitation metrics. The within-ecoregion analysis found much greater variation in the strength-of-relationship coefficients among the four mountain ranges, relative to the inter-regional analysis, possibly attributable to smaller sample sizes per mountain range. Lastly, the importance of several variables shifted through time from significant to insignificant in the temporal analysis. Our results collectively reveal the overall complexity underlying species–environment relationships. With rapidly shifting conditions globally, this work adds to the growing body of literature highlighting how issues of spatio-temporal nonstationarity can limit the accuracy, transferability, and reliability of models and that interpretations will likely be most robust at local to regional scales. Diagnosing, describing, and incorporating nonstationarity of species–climate relationships into models over space and time could serve as a pivotal step in creating more informative models.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS1917

A fossil flora from the Frontier formation of southwestern Wyoming

This paper deals with a small but important fossil flora, now known to be of Colorado age, from the vicinity of Cumberland, Lincoln County, Wyo. It was for many years thought to be of Jurassic age, and only within the last decade has its stratigraphic position been established. Although small in number of species, this flora offers information bearing on the physical and climatic conditions that prevailed during early Upper Cretaceous time in this region, and, moreover, it furnishes a series of stratigraphic marks that may be used in the recognition of this horizon elsewhere.

Wyoming↗
USGS2013

The added complications of climate change: Understanding and managing biodiversity and ecosystems

Ecosystems around the world are already threatened by land-use and land-cover change, extraction of natural resources, biological disturbances, and pollution. These environmental stressors have been the primary source of ecosystem degradation to date, and climate change is now exacerbating some of their effects. Ecosystems already under stress are likely to have more rapid and acute reactions to climate change; it is therefore useful to understand how multiple stresses will interact, especially as the magnitude of climate change increases. Understanding these interactions could be critically important in the design of climate adaptation strategies, especially because actions taken by other sectors (eg energy, agriculture, transportation) to address climate change may create new ecosystem stresses.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2020

Oases of the future? Evaluating springs as potential hydrologic refugia in drying climates

Springs in water-limited landscapes are biodiversity hotspots and keystone ecosystems, disproportionately influencing surrounding landscapes despite their often small areas. Some springs served as evolutionary refugia during previous climate drying, supporting relict species in isolated habitats. Understanding whether springs will provide hydrologic refugia from future climate change is important to biodiversity conservation but complicated by hydrologic variability among springs, data limitations, and multiple non-climate threats to groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Here, we present a conceptual framework for categorizing springs as potentially stable, relative, or transient hydrologic refugia in a drying climate. Clues about refugial capacity of springs can be assembled from diverse approaches, including citizen-science-powered ecohydrologic monitoring, remote sensing, landowner interviews, and environmental tracer analysis. Managers can integrate multiple lines of evidence to predict which springs may become future refugia for species of concern, strengthening the long-term effectiveness of springs conservation and restoration and informing climate adaptation for terrestrial and freshwater species.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗