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USGS2022

Science mission requirements for a globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel for U.S. Scientific Ocean Drilling

Through the collection and analysis of shallow and deep subseafloor sediments, rocks, fluids, and life, scientific ocean drilling has enriched our understanding of the complex Earth system. Among other achievements, scientific ocean drilling has documented the history of Earth’s climate, the waxing and waning of polar ice sheets, the past changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation, the existence and function of microbial life in the subseafloor, the compositional variations in Earth’s crust and underlying mantle, and the physical and chemical processes acting at subduction zones, including those associated with tsunamigenic earthquakes. Over the decades, more than 12,000 articles that depend on analyses of scientific ocean drilling samples and geophysical data have been published, many detailing breakthrough contributions to global knowledge about the Earth system. Approximately 45% of these publications were led by U.S.-affiliated authors (International Ocean Discovery Program Publication Services, 2021). Since the mid-1980s, the workhorse of this multidisciplinary, international research effort has been the riserless D/V JOIDES Resolution, operated by Texas A&M University with funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). D/V JOIDES Resolution has conducted the vast majority of scientific ocean drilling expeditions and collected most of the scientific cores over that period, including 82% of the expeditions and 93% of the cores in the last decade alone, despite being one of three platforms that is operated within the International Ocean Discovery Program. However, D/V JOIDES Resolution is approaching the end of its useful life. With a strong commitment to continue scientific ocean drilling beyond the end of the current phase, the community developed a document outlining the research frontiers that should be pursued. Exploring Earth by Scientific Ocean Drilling: 2050 Science Framework (Koppers and Coggon, 2020) describes seven scientific strategic objectives that focus on understanding interconnections within the Earth system and five flagship initiatives that integrate these objectives into long-term research efforts that address issues facing society. Additional elements in the 2050 Science Framework, including STEM education, workforce development, technology development, and innovative applications of data analytics, will advance the goals of scientific ocean drilling. Addressing the 2050 Science Framework also requires building partnerships with allied U.S. and international science programs and strengthening existing ones. To implement a significant portion of the 2050 Science Framework, the U.S. scientific community seeks to lease or acquire a newly built, globally ranging, state-of-the art, riserless drilling vessel. The many and varied technical and human resources requirements for successful accomplishment of scientific and educational goals summarized in this document and described in detail in the 2050 Science Framework require broad community input and careful consideration. Following receipt of NSF’s formal Request for Assistance to the United States Science Support Program (USSSP), the U.S. scientific ocean drilling community conducted a one-year exercise to identify its national scientific needs and priorities in order to determine the Science Mission Requirements (SMRs) presented here. This community effort included: (1) a U.S. community-wide survey to identify the specific operational and technical capabilities critical to addressing science in the 2050 Science Framework; (2) a series of online workshops focusing on critical capabilities identified by the survey; and (3) a large in-person workshop to synthesize the results of the survey and the virtual workshops (Appendix 1). The approach was designed to reach as many participants as possible. Overall, 278 survey responses were received from U.S. community members, representing 104 unique institutions from 39 states and the District of Columbia, and 137 unique individuals participated in the workshops (Appendix 2). The results of this effort comprise two classes of SMRs: Foundational Science Mission Requirements and Primary Science Mission Requirements. Foundational SMRs define minimum criteria for a new riserless drilling vessel that can address significant portions of the 2050 Science Framework. Primary SMRs build upon the Foundational SMRs and will create more robust science opportunities and data collection capabilities, will increase progress in addressing the 2050 Science Framework objectives, and will provide more real-time ship-to-shore interaction to improve science productivity, engagement, and outreach. Modern safety and environmental standards, including meeting standards to access protected waters such as exclusive economic zones, extended continental shelves, or high latitudes, while being cognizant of the vessel’s environmental footprint. Safe and efficient operations in global locations and in water depths from 70 m to 6000+ m, with total drill string length of at least 7000 m. High-quality core and data collection from a range of key subseafloor environments. Advanced heave compensation, dynamic positioning, and drill pipe stability. Modern mud and cement/casing systems. Critical onboard measurements for safety, operational decision-making, documentation of ephemeral properties, mission-specific science, and long-term science goals that extend beyond a single expedition. Designated and appropriate space for sample and data preservation. Highly skilled onboard personnel, including technical staff for curation and core handling; support for safety, time-sensitive, and critical shipboard measurements; computer support; equipment and instrument repair; application support; and data assurance. Primary Science Mission Requirements include: Flexible shipboard space for laboratories and on deck to ensure safe, successful implementation of diverse science objectives and operations. Minimizing contamination of recovered samples. Over-the-side capabilities for science-supporting technology (e.g., remotely operated vehicles, water- column sampling, sediment-water interface sampling). Downhole logging and measurements. Expanded borehole observatory capabilities. Reliable and consistent ship-to-shore communications. NSF’s investment in a new globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will have a powerful economic multiplier effect, including the infusion of additional science support funds in the United States for training and research, the development of new technologies and tools, and the associated scientific and technical workforce development. The skills and knowledge gained through scientific ocean drilling are translatable to careers in fields such as sustainable energy development (e.g., geothermal and offshore wind), carbon sequestration, data management and cyberinfrastructure, biotechnology, communications, science education, policy, hazard mitigation, and environmental management. The United States is a leader in a well-established and internationally collaborative scientific ocean drilling community. A modern, globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will allow the United States to expand its leadership position, address broad scientific questions that current capabilities preclude, and cultivate equitable international, multidisciplinary collaborations that will ensure scientific ocean drilling’s future success.

Report↗
USGS2017

Fish Bioenergetics 4.0: An R-based modeling application

Bioenergetics modeling is a widely used tool in fisheries management and research. Although popular, currently available software (i.e., Fish Bioenergetics 3.0) has not been updated in over 20 years and is incompatible with newer operating systems (i.e., 64‐bit). Moreover, since the release of Fish Bioenergetics 3.0 in 1997, the number of published bioenergetics models has increased appreciably from 56 to 105 models representing 73 species. In this article, we provide an overview of Fish Bioenergetics 4.0 (FB4), a newly developed modeling application that consists of a graphical user interface (Shiny by RStudio) combined with a modeling package used in the R computing environment. While including the same capabilities as previous versions, Fish Bioenergetics 4.0 allows for timely updates and bug fixes and can be continuously improved based on feedback from users. In addition, users can add new or modified parameter sets for additional species and formulate and incorporate modifications such as habitat‐dependent functions (e.g., dissolved oxygen, salinity) that are not part of the default package. We hope that advances in the new modeling platform will attract a broad range of users while facilitating continued application of bioenergetics modeling to a wide spectrum of questions in fish biology, ecology, and management.

Fisheries Magazine↗
USGS2020

Spatial conservation planning under uncertainty using modern portfolio theory and nash bargaining solution

In recent years, researchers from interdisciplinary teams involving ecologists, economists and operations re- searchers collaborated to provide decision support tools to address the challenges of preserving biodiversity by optimizing the design of reserves. The goal of this paper is to further advance this area of research and provide new solutions to solve complex Spatial Conservation Planning (SCP) problems under uncertainty that consider risk preferences of decision makers. Our approach employs modern portfolio theory to address uncertainties in SCP problems, and involves two conflicting objectives: maximizing return and minimizing risk. We apply concepts from game theory such as the Nash bargaining solution to directly compute a desirable Pareto-optimal solution for the proposed bi-objective optimization formulation in natural resource management problems. We demonstrate with numerical examples that by directly computing a Nash bar- gaining solution, a Binary Quadratically Constrained Quadratic Program (BQCQP) can be solved. We show that our approach (implementable with commercial solvers such as CPLEX) can effectively solve the proposed BQCQP for much larger problems than previous approaches published in the ecological literature. Optimal solutions for problems with less than 400 parcels can be computed within a minute. Near optimal solutions (within at most 0.2% gap from an optimal solution) for high-dimensional problems involving up to 800 parcels can be computed within 8 hours on a standard computer. We have presented a new approach to solve SCP optimization problems while considering uncertainty and risk tolerance of decision makers. Our new approach expands considerably the applicability of such SCP optimization methods to address real conservation problems.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2020

Improving geospatial query performance of an interoperable geographic situation-awareness system (IGSAS) for disaster response

Disaster response operations require fast and coordinated actions based on the real-time disaster situation information. Although Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) or crowdsourced geospatial data applications have demonstrated to be valuable tools for gathering real-time disaster situation information, they only provide limited utility for disaster response coordination because of the lack of compatibility and interoperability. VGI based on Geospatial Semantic Web (GSW) technologies has the potential to overcome the incompatibility and heterogeneity problems. However, GSW-based VGI often has poor performance due to complex geometric computation. The objective of this research is to explore how to use optimization techniques to improve performance of an interoperable geographic situation-awareness system (IGSAS) based on GSW technologies for disaster response. We conducted experiments to evaluate various client-side optimization techniques for improving performance of an IGSAS prototype for flooding disaster response in New Haven, Connecticut. Our experimental results show that the developed prototype can greatly reduce the runtime costs of geospatial semantic queries through on-the-fly spatial indexing, tile-based rendering, efficient algorithms for spatial join, and caching, especially for those spatial-join geospatial queries that involve a large number of spatial features and heavy geometric computation.

Transactions in GIS↗
USGS2018

A suite of exercises for verifying dynamic earthquake rupture codes

We describe a set of benchmark exercises that are designed to test if computer codes that simulate dynamic earthquake rupture are working as intended. These types of computer codes are often used to understand how earthquakes operate, and they produce simulation results that include earthquake size, amounts of fault slip, and the patterns of ground shaking and crustal deformation. The benchmark exercises examine a range of features that scientists incorporate in their dynamic earthquake rupture simulations. These include implementations of simple or complex fault geometry, off‐fault rock response to an earthquake, stress conditions, and a variety of formulations for fault friction. Many of the benchmarks were designed to investigate scientific problems at the forefronts of earthquake physics and strong ground motions research. The exercises are freely available on our website for use by the scientific community.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS1983

Geotherm: the U.S. geological survey geothermal information system

GEOTHERM is a comprehensive system of public databases and software used to store, locate, and evaluate information on the geology, geochemistry, and hydrology of geothermal systems. Three main databases address the general characteristics of geothermal wells and fields, and the chemical properties of geothermal fluids; the last database is currently the most active. System tasks are divided into four areas: (1) data acquisition and entry, involving data entry via word processors and magnetic tape; (2) quality assurance, including the criteria and standards handbook and front-end data-screening programs; (3) operation, involving database backups and information extraction; and (4) user assistance, preparation of such items as application programs, and a quarterly newsletter. The principal task of GEOTHERM is to provide information and research support for the conduct of national geothermal-resource assessments. The principal users of GEOTHERM are those involved with the Geothermal Research Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. Information in the system is available to the public on request. ?? 1983.

Computers & Geosciences↗
USGS2012

Science in support of the Deepwater Horizon response

This introduction to the Special Feature presents the context for science during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill response, summarizes how scientific knowledge was integrated across disciplines and statutory responsibilities, identifies areas where scientific information was accurate and where it was not, and considers lessons learned and recommendations for future research and response. Scientific information was integrated within and across federal and state agencies, with input from nongovernmental scientists, across a diverse portfolio of needs—stopping the flow of oil, estimating the amount of oil, capturing and recovering the oil, tracking and forecasting surface oil, protecting coastal and oceanic wildlife and habitat, managing fisheries, and protecting the safety of seafood. Disciplines involved included atmospheric, oceanographic, biogeochemical, ecological, health, biological, and chemical sciences, physics, geology, and mechanical and chemical engineering. Platforms ranged from satellites and planes to ships, buoys, gliders, and remotely operated vehicles to laboratories and computer simulations. The unprecedented response effort depended directly on intense and extensive scientific and engineering data, information, and advice. Many valuable lessons were learned that should be applied to future events.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗
USGS2005

Global land cover mapping and characterization: present situation and future research priorities

The availability and accessibility of global land cover data sets plays an important role in many global change studies. The importance of such science‐based information is also reflected in a number of international, regional, and national projects and programs. Recent developments in earth observing satellite technology, information technology, computer hardware and software, and infrastructure development have helped developed better quality land cover data sets. As a result, such data sets are increasingly becoming available, the user‐base is ever widening, application areas have been expanding, and the potential of many other applications are enormous. Yet, we are far from producing high quality global land cover data sets. This paper examines the progress in the development of digital global land cover data, their availability, and current applications. Problems and opportunities are also explained. The overview sets the stage for identifying future research priorities needed for operational land cover assessment and monitoring.

Geocarto International↗
USGS2015

Evaluating unsupervised methods to size and classify suspended particles using digital in-line holography

Substantial information can be gained from digital in-line holography of marine particles, eliminating depth-of-field and focusing errors associated with standard lens-based imaging methods. However, for the technique to reach its full potential in oceanographic research, fully unsupervised (automated) methods are required for focusing, segmentation, sizing and classification of particles. These computational challenges are the subject of this paper, in which we draw upon data collected using a variety of holographic systems developed at Plymouth University, UK, from a significant range of particle types, sizes and shapes. A new method for noise reduction in reconstructed planes is found to be successful in aiding particle segmentation and sizing. The performance of an automated routine for deriving particle characteristics (and subsequent size distributions) is evaluated against equivalent size metrics obtained by a trained operative measuring grain axes on screen. The unsupervised method is found to be reliable, despite some errors resulting from over-segmentation of particles. A simple unsupervised particle classification system is developed, and is capable of successfully differentiating sand grains, bubbles and diatoms from within the surf-zone. Avoiding miscounting bubbles and biological particles as sand grains enables more accurate estimates of sand concentrations, and is especially important in deployments of particle monitoring instrumentation in aerated water. Perhaps the greatest potential for further development in the computational aspects of particle holography is in the area of unsupervised particle classification. The simple method proposed here provides a foundation upon which further development could lead to reliable identification of more complex particle populations, such as those containing phytoplankton, zooplankton, flocculated cohesive sediments and oil droplets.

Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology↗
USGS2021

Implications of aggregating and smoothing daily production data on estimates of the transition time between flow regimes in horizontal hydraulically fractured Bakken oil wells

The level to which data are aggregated or smoothed can impact analytical and predictive modeling results. This paper discusses findings regarding such impacts on estimating change points in production flow regimes of horizontal hydraulically fractured shale oil wells producing from the middle member of the Bakken Formation. Change points that signal transitions in flow regimes are important because they subsequently affect estimates of ultimate recovery from wells producing from shale plays. Extending our earlier work, we employ two different statistical approaches, Bacon–Watts Bayesian regression and nonlinear constrained least squares regression, and a designed computational experiment to estimate the time of transition from the transient to the boundary-dominated flow regime for 14 different wells using daily production data rather than aggregated monthly data, as previously considered. The daily data were also smoothed to reduce noise. Computational experiments suggest that both statistical approaches can lead to plausible estimates of the transition point under different data aggregation or smoothing regimes, but that daily data are likely too granular to produce credible estimates. Although the expected value of transition points using smoothed daily data and monthly disaggregated data are generally comparable, the confidence intervals bounding the estimates based on smoothed daily data are generally wider. Our results not only inform the operational practices of oil producers engaged in economic evaluation of their shale resources and additional play development activities, but also the activities of petroleum research groups, government agencies, and financial organizations seeking to improve the trustworthiness of resource projections.

Mathematical Geosciences↗
USGS1995

Use of modern infrared thermography for wildlife population surveys

A commercially available thermal-infrared scanning system was used to survey populations of several wildlife species. The system's ability to detect species of different sizes in varying habitats relative to conventional survey methods, to differentiate between species in the same habitat, and the influence of environmental factors on operational aspects of employing this technology in the field were evaluated. Total costs for the surveys were approximately $0.36/ha. There were marked discrepancies in the counts of untrained observers and those from trained analysis. Computer-assisted analysis of infrared imagery recorded 52% fewer deer than were estimated from drive counts, and densities of moose were five times those estimated from conventional aerial methods. By flying concentric circles and using telephoto, detailed counts of turkeys and deer were possible. With the aid of computer-assisted analysis, infrared thermography may become a useful wildlife population survey tool. More research is needed to verify the actual efficiency of detection by combining aerial scans with ground truthing for a variely of species and habitals.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2024

Simulation of groundwater flow and brine discharge to the Dolores River in the Paradox Valley, Montrose County, Colorado

Salinity, or total dissolved solids (TDS), of the Colorado River affects agricultural, municipal, and industrial water users and is an important concern in the Western United States. In the Paradox Valley of southwestern Colorado, natural discharge of sodium-chloride brine to the Dolores River from the underlying core of a salt-valley anticline accounts for about 6 percent of the salinity load to the Colorado River. Formation of the Paradox Valley began during the Miocene, and subsequent erosion exposed the Pennsylvania Paradox Formation in the core of the anticline where a cap rock, collapse features, breccia, and sodium-chloride saturated brine developed at the top of the exposed salt diapir. The discharge of brine to the Dolores River is affected by these dissolution features, along with seasonal hydrologic conditions and density-dependent flow between older dense brine and the younger fresh groundwater in the overlying alluvial aquifer. To reduce TDS concentrations in the Dolores River through the Paradox Valley, the Bureau of Reclamation has pumped brine from a series of shallow wells adjacent to the river since July 1996. The pumped brine is collected and piped to a deep disposal well where it is injected into the Mississippian Leadville Limestone at a depth of about 4,570-meters below land surface. The pumping and injection operation is collectively known as the Paradox Valley Unit (PVU), and by 2015, the PVU had substantially reduced TDS concentrations in the Dolores River by about 70 percent. Since 2019, injection-pressure limits and related seismic activity have constrained deep-well injection and thus brine pumping at the PVU. In cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a MODFLOW-6 three-dimensional, variable-density groundwater flow and TDS transport model of the Paradox Valley to evaluate the effects of PVU pumping operations on brine discharge to the Dolores River and to guide additional research. The finite-difference model grid consists of 76 rows and 48 columns oriented from northwest to southeast in alignment with valley topography and groundwater-flow directions in the near-surface freshwater alluvial aquifer. A 7-layer hydrogeologic framework was developed from existing datasets to represent the alluvial aquifer, cap rock, collapse breccia, and groundwater flow and TDS transport from the underlying Paradox Formation salt to the Dolores River. The model represents a 33-year transient calibration period from 1987 through 2020 that includes pre-PVU conditions from 1987 through June 1996 and post-PVU conditions from July 1996 through 2020. A 1,000-year simulation of groundwater flow and coupled TDS transport computed the initial conditions for the subsequent 33-year transient simulation. Observations of precipitation, streamflow, evaporation, agricultural land use, and PVU brine pumping rates were used to specify appropriate boundary conditions to the model representing time-varying recharge, tributary streamflow, groundwater underflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and PVU pumping. Values for average monthly streamflow and TDS concentration at the upstream streamgage, the Dolores River at Bedrock (USGS streamgage 09169500), were specified as model input where the Dolores River enters Paradox Valley. Observed pumping from the PVU, water levels and TDS concentrations in groundwater, and streamflow and estimated TDS concentrations at the downstream streamgage, the Dolores River near Bedrock (USGS streamgage 09171100), were calibration targets that constrained the manual calibration of model parameters representing aquifer hydraulic conductivity, storage, streambed conductance, recharge, and (ET). Two primary model-calibration targets were the match between observed and simulated TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells and the match between estimated and simulated TDS mass flux to the Dolores River. The simulated TDS mass withdrawn by pumping wells is calculated by the model as the product of the assigned pumping rate and simulated groundwater TDS concentrations. Because actual pumping rates were assigned as simulated values, the total simulated PVU pumping for the 33-year calibration is within 0.5 percent of the observed values. However, simulated concentrations and thus mass flux of TDS withdrawn by the PVU pumping wells were consistently about 26 percent less than observed values for all the simulated time periods (33-year simulation, pre-PVU, and post-PVU). The representation of brine inflow was explored through additional modeling to evaluate the effect of the simulated brine source on groundwater TDS concentrations. Results indicated that a saturated-salt constant-flux brine source best replicated the magnitude and transient pattern observed for TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells. The simulated TDS mass flux to the Dolores River is compared to estimates based on observed streamflow and specific conductance (SC) data for the downstream streamgage. The calibrated model provided a close fit of simulated to measured streamflow at the downstream streamgage, and the calibrated model fit to estimated TDS concentrations at the downstream streamgage was reasonable. The greatest differences between simulated and estimated values occurred during drought periods from June 2000 to March 2003, May 2012 to June 2013, and October 2013 to October 2014, when simulated TDS concentrations in the river were greater than estimated concentrations. In general, simulated TDS mass flux to the river for the pre-PVU period is in good agreement with estimated values (2-percent difference), but the model overestimated TDS mass flux to the river by about 41 percent during the post-PVU period. The model uncertainty with respect to TDS mass flux to the river indicates other processes or model parameters not well represented by the model are affecting the system, especially during drought. During model calibration, the most sensitive parameters were identified as vertical hydraulic conductivity of the alluvial aquifer, conductance of the Dolores River streambed, ET extinction depth and rate, and recharge rate. Five 5-year scenarios of conditions for 2021–25 were simulated to assist evaluation of alternative strategies to manage the discharge of brine into the Dolores River. The first scenario simulates no PVU pumping and serves as a base case for comparison to the other scenarios. Two scenarios simulate the effects of varying withdrawal timing at an annual rate about one-third less than during 2010 through 2018. During high-flow spring snowmelt runoff periods when brine discharge is naturally minimized, PVU pumping does not substantially affect salinity in the Dolores River, and comparison of these two scenarios indicates that scheduling brine withdrawals during times of low river stage is nearly as effective at reducing TDS mass flux to the river as pumping brine year-round. Cessation of pumping during periods of high river stage may be advantageous for system maintenance, brine injection, and seismic-risk reduction. The fourth scenario tested the effect of reducing irrigation-return flow on brine discharge and predicted a slight reduction of TDS mass flux to the Dolores River, but not as great a reduction as that of using the PVU to remove brine. The fifth scenario simulated 5 years of drought conditions without PVU pumping and indicates brine discharge during drought about 15 percent greater than during average hydrologic conditions. Results from scenario 5 are consistent with the calibrated model results and indicate that aquifer properties and ET processes and parameters may be affecting simulation results during drought. The Paradox Valley groundwater model provides a reasonable overall match to observed conditions in the Dolores River. The model is useful for evaluating relative differences between brine management scenarios to inform PVU operational decisions and to identify gaps in data and process understanding. Representation of the brine source, hydraulic-conductivity parameters, and recharge and ET processes were identified as potential areas for additional field and modeling research. Additional research in the Paradox Valley might include field-data collection that provides additional information on the hydrogeologic framework, groundwater levels, groundwater TDS concentrations, stream characteristics, and aquifer properties. Additional modeling efforts could benefit from applying advanced tools for model development, calibration, and visualization including parameter-estimation and sensitivity analysis. Statistical evaluation of known model uncertainties such as hydraulic conductivity, streambed conductance, representations of the brine source, recharge, and ET could improve the match between simulated and estimated TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells and to the Dolores River further informing model predictions and system understanding for the Paradox Valley.

Colorado↗
USGS1975

Earthquake shaking and damage to buildings

Ground shaking close to the causative fault of an earthquake is more intense than it was previously believed to be. This raises the possibility that large numbers of buildings and other structures are not sufficiently resistant for the intense levels of shaking that can occur close to the fault. Many structures were built before earthquake codes were adopted; others were built according to codes formulated when less was known about the intensity of near-fault shaking. Although many building types are more resistant than conventional design analyses imply, the margin of safety is difficult to quantify. Many modern structures, such as freeways, have not been subjected to and tested by near-fault shaking in major earthquakes (magnitude 7 or greater). Damage patterns in recent moderate-sized earthquakes occurring in or adjacent to urbanized areas, however, indicate that many structures, including some modern ones designed to meet earthquake code requirements, cannot withstand the severe shaking that can occur close to a fault. It is necessary to review the ground motion assumed and the methods utilized in the design of important existing structures and, if necessary, to strengthen or modify the use of structures that are found to be weak. New structures situated close to active faults should be designed on the basis of ground motion estimates greater than those used in the past. The ultimate balance between risk of earthquake losses and cost for both remedial strengthening and improved earthquake-resistant construction must be decided by the public. Scientists and engineers must inform the public about earthquake shaking and its effect on structures. The exposure to damage from seismic shaking is steadily increasing because of continuing urbanization and the increasing complexity of lifeline systems, such as power, water, transportation, and communication systems. In the near future we should expect additional painful examples of the damage potential of moderate-sized earthquakes in urban areas. Over a longer time span, however, we can significantly reduce the risk to life and property from seismic shaking through better land utilization, improved building codes and construction practices, and at least the gradual replacement of poor buildings by more resistant buildings. Progress toward reducing risk from seismic shaking through better building design is slowed by deficiencies in our knowledge about the nature of damaging ground motion and the failure mechanisms in structures. For example, lacking observational data, seismologists must rely on simplified theoretical and numerical models of the earthquake process to estimate near-fault ground motion, especially for earthquakes as large as magnitude 7 and 8. Because such models have not been adequately tested against data, their reliability is unknown. Engineers lack detailed information about failure processes in structures during an earthquake. Although many structures have been instrumented to measure their response to an earthquake, few records have been obtained from buildings that actually sustained significant structural damage and few structures are properly instrumented to measure all the modes of deformation that are likely to contribute to failure. Moreover, the fact that many structures have withstood ground motion more intense than that assumed in their design indicates that conventional methods of design do not take into account important contributions to earthquake resistance by nonstructural elements and by the ability of structural elements to deform inelastically without necessarily causing failure of the structure. It is fortunate when such reserve resistance exists, but better understanding of the sources of reserve strength is needed to determine how large a margin of safety they confer and how they might be affected by changes in construction practices and materials with time. In the next few years we look forward to significant advances in knowledge and to more effective application of what is already known, largely because of substantial funding of research related to seismic engineering by the National Science Foundation . The increasing number of strong-motion seismographs operating in seismically active regions will likely provide for the first time a number of records of damaging levels of ground motion. Significant effort is being directed toward obtaining near-fault records, although many probable sites of future large earthquakes remain inadequately instrumented, especially outside the conterminous United States. New and more complete information on building response and damage mechanisms will be obtained by improved instrumentation of structures and through laboratory investigations of failure in structures and structural elements. Further developments in computer technology and in computer modeling techniques will permit more realistic simulations of the seismic response of soils and structures that take into account their inelastic behavior and their strain-dependent properties. Earthquake design codes will continually be revised to better utilize existing knowledge concerning the nature of strong ground motion and the dynamic behavior of buildings during earthquakes and to incorporate new knowledge and also experiences gained from future earthquakes. We believe that application of new knowledge, improvements in earthquake-resistant design and construction, and remedial strengthening or replacement of weak existing structures can significantly reduce our current level of exposure to earthquake hazards.

Science↗
USGS1981

Decentralized shared computers in the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program

The needs for computer analysis in the National Earthquake Program are varied, complex, and rapidly growing. Major sources of frustration have been the difficulty of keeping up with the required analysis, and the difficulties of sharing a wide variety of data and computer programs among several hundred researchers at dozens of institutions located throughout the U.S. A major effort is underway to create a similar computer environment running on many PDP 11/70 minicomputers located across the country that encourages widespread sharing of data and "software tools" without impeding the free flow of creative ideas in this research program. Large libraries of high-level tools are provided in a well documented manner. The tools can be readily combined into programs using a new interactive language, any compiled language, or, in many cases, the Shell command language of the UNIX** Timesharing System. New tools are easily written by any user. Major system tools provided include advanced general plotting programs and a relational indexed database. Extensions to the operating system include text overlays and an 830,000 baud graphics interface.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

Operational evapotranspiration mapping using remote sensing and weather datasets: A new parameterization for the SSEB approach

The increasing availability of multi-scale remotely sensed data and global weather datasets is allowing the estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) at multiple scales. We present a simple but robust method that uses remotely sensed thermal data and model-assimilated weather fields to produce ET for the contiguous United States (CONUS) at monthly and seasonal time scales. The method is based on the Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) model, which is now parameterized for operational applications, renamed as SSEBop. The innovative aspect of the SSEBop is that it uses predefined boundary conditions that are unique to each pixel for the "hot" and "cold" reference conditions. The SSEBop model was used for computing ET for 12 years (2000-2011) using the MODIS and Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data streams. SSEBop ET results compared reasonably well with monthly eddy covariance ET data explaining 64% of the observed variability across diverse ecosystems in the CONUS during 2005. Twelve annual ET anomalies (2000-2011) depicted the spatial extent and severity of the commonly known drought years in the CONUS. More research is required to improve the representation of the predefined boundary conditions in complex terrain at small spatial scales. SSEBop model was found to be a promising approach to conduct water use studies in the CONUS, with a similar opportunity in other parts of the world. The approach can also be applied with other thermal sensors such as Landsat.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2006

USGS science in Menlo Park -- a science strategy for the U.S. Geological Survey Menlo Park Science Center, 2005-2015

In the spring of 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Menlo Park Center Council commissioned an interdisciplinary working group to develop a forward-looking science strategy for the USGS Menlo Park Science Center in California (hereafter also referred to as "the Center"). The Center has been the flagship research center for the USGS in the western United States for more than 50 years, and the Council recognizes that science priorities must be the primary consideration guiding critical decisions made about the future evolution of the Center. In developing this strategy, the working group consulted widely within the USGS and with external clients and collaborators, so that most stakeholders had an opportunity to influence the science goals and operational objectives. The Science Goals are to: Natural Hazards: Conduct natural-hazard research and assessments critical to effective mitigation planning, short-term forecasting, and event response. Ecosystem Change: Develop a predictive understanding of ecosystem change that advances ecosystem restoration and adaptive management. Natural Resources: Advance the understanding of natural resources in a geologic, hydrologic, economic, environmental, and global context. Modeling Earth System Processes: Increase and improve capabilities for quantitative simulation, prediction, and assessment of Earth system processes. The strategy presents seven key Operational Objectives with specific actions to achieve the scientific goals. These Operational Objectives are to: Provide a hub for technology, laboratories, and library services to support science in the Western Region. Increase advanced computing capabilities and promote sharing of these resources. Enhance the intellectual diversity, vibrancy, and capacity of the work force through improved recruitment and retention. Strengthen client and collaborative relationships in the community at an institutional level. Expand monitoring capability by increasing density, sensitivity, and efficiency and reducing costs of instruments and networks. Encourage a breadth of scientific capabilities in Menlo Park to foster interdisciplinary science. Communicate USGS science to a diverse audience.

Circular↗
USGS2025

Machine learning provides reconnaissance-type estimates of carbon dioxide storage resources in oil and gas reservoirs

Oil and gas reservoirs represent suitable containers to sequester carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in a supercritical state because they are accessible, reservoir properties are known, and they previously contained stored buoyant fluids. However, planners must quantify the relative magnitude of the CO 2 storage resource in these reservoirs to formulate a comprehensive strategy for CO 2 mitigation. Even reconnaissance-type estimates of CO 2 storage resources of known oil and gas reservoirs may require complicated calculations involving 1) estimates of recoverable oil and gas, 2) reservoir properties (depth, temperature, pressure, etc.), and 3) the physical qualities of the retained fluids. We demonstrate the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms to bypass these computations to yield more rapid estimates of CO 2 storage resources in reservoirs capable of hosting CO 2 in a supercritical state. ML algorithms are computationally efficient because they do not impose the strong assumptions on the data-generating process that standard statistical or engineering procedures require. Further, ML algorithms can capture highly complex, particularly nonlinear, relationships among predictor variables. We demonstrate the application of four different ML algorithms using data from onshore and offshore oil and gas reservoirs in Europe, and show they perform well when predictions are compared to engineering estimates. The proposed methods and models provide an effective and novel way to more rapidly and directly determine the subsurface CO 2 storage capacity of oil and gas reservoirs around the world, information that operators, researchers, and policymakers alike require to meet energy transition and decarbonization goals.

Frontiers in Enviornmental Science↗
USGS2024

Real-time invasive sea lamprey detection using machine learning classifier models on embedded systems

Invasive sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) has historically inflicted considerable economic and ecological damage in the Great Lakes and continues to be a major threat. Accurately monitoring sea lampreys are critical to enabling the deployment of more targeted and effective control measures to minimize the impact associated with this species. This paper presents the first stand-alone system for real-time detection of sea lamprey attachment on underwater surfaces through the use of classifier models deployed on a microcontroller system. A range of low-complexity models was explored: single-layer artificial neural networks, logistic regression, Gaussian Naive-Bayes, decision trees, random forest, and Scalable, Efficient, and Fast classifieR (SEFR). Threshold models tuned using a multi-objective optimization formulation were also considered. Classifier models were trained with a dataset generated through live animal testing and presented accuracies between 80 and 86%. The models were deployed on an Arduino microcontroller platform and compared in classification accuracy, detection performance, time complexity, and memory size using real-time detection testing. Classification accuracies between 65 and 75% were observed during validation. Models demonstrated good capture rates for lamprey attachments (63–85%), and average detection delays ranging from 9 to 36 s. A video demonstrating the operation of the system during a real-time validation test is also included in this work. While there is room for improving the accuracy of the system, this research presents the first step toward an electronic sea lamprey monitoring system that can provide a detailed view of sea lamprey activity enhancing control and conservation efforts across its entire range.

Neural Computing and Applications↗