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Coastal effects

The Coasts chapter of the Third National Climate Assessment, published in 2014, focused on coastal lifelines at risk, economic disruption, uneven social vulnerability, and vulnerable ecosystems. This Coastal Effects chapter of the Fourth National Climate Assessment updates those themes, with a focus on integrating the socioeconomic and environmental impacts and consequences of a changing climate. Specifically, the chapter builds on the threat of rising sea levels exacerbating tidal and storm surge flooding, the state of coastal ecosystems, and the treatment of social vulnerability by introducing the implications for social equity. U.S. coasts are dynamic environments and economically vibrant places to live and work. As of 2013, coastal shoreline counties were home to 133.2 million people, or 42% of the population. The coasts are economic engines that support jobs in defense, fishing, transportation, and tourism industries; contribute substantially to the U.S. gross domestic product; and serve as hubs of commerce, with seaports connecting the country with global trading partners. Coasts are home to diverse ecosystems such as beaches, intertidal zones, reefs, seagrasses, salt marshes, estuaries, and deltas that support a range of important services including fisheries, recreation, and coastal storm protection. U.S. coasts span three oceans, as well as the Gulf of Mexico, the Great Lakes, and Pacific and Caribbean islands. The social, economic, and environmental systems along the coasts are being affected by climate change. Threats from sea level rise (SLR) are exacerbated by dynamic processes such as high tide and storm surge flooding (Ch. 19: Southeast, KM 2) , erosion (Ch. 26: Alaska, KM 2) , waves and their effects, saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers and elevated groundwater tables (Ch. 27: Hawaiʻi & Pacific Islands, KM 1; Ch. 3: Water, KM 1) , local rainfall (Ch. 3: Water, KM 1) , river runoff (Ch. 3: Water, KM 1) , increasing water and surface air temperatures (Ch. 9: Oceans, KM 3) , and ocean acidification (see Ch. 2: Climate, KM 3 and Ch. 9: Oceans, KM 1, 2, and 3 for more information on ocean acidification, hypoxia, and ocean warming) . Although storms, floods, and erosion have always been hazards, in combination with rising sea levels they now threaten approximately $1 trillion in national wealth held in coastal real estate and the continued viability of coastal communities that depend on coastal water, land, and other resources for economic health and cultural integrity (Ch. 15: Tribes, KM 1 and 2) .

Report

Southern California Bight 2003 Regional Monitoring Program: V. water quality

More than $30 million is expended annually on environmental monitoring in the Southern California Bight (SCB), yet only 5% of the Bight is monitored on an ongoing basis. Therefore, environmental managers in the SCB decided to expand their monitoring program and, starting in 1994, decided to conduct periodic regional assessments of ecosystem condition and assess the overall health of the SCB. Sixty-five different organizations collaborated in 2003 to create the third SCB Regional Monitoring Program (Bight '03). Bight '03 was designed to be integrated regional monitoring program that encompasses regulatory, academic, and non-governmental agencies. Bight '03 had three components: Coastal Ecology, Shoreline Microbiology, and Water Quality. This report addresses the purpose, approach, findings, and recommendations from the Water Quality component, which focused on contamination-laden stormwater runoff, in particularly its variability in time and space as well as its short-term ecological impacts. Specifically, the Bight '03 Water Quality component had three primary goals, the first of which was to described the temporal evolution of stormwater plumes produced by the major southern California rivers. Specifically, the study was intended to determine how far offshore the plumes extended, how rapidly they advected, how long before the plumes dispersed and how these properties differed among storms and river systems. The second goal was to describe how the physical properties (e.g., turbidity, temperature, salinity) of the plume related to biogeochemical and ecological properties that are of more direct concern to the water quality management community. Accomplished primarily through ship-based sampling of water quality parameters, this second goal was to describe how far offshore, and for how ;long after the storm, elevated bacterial concentrations, toxicity, and nutrients could be detected. Similar to the fist goal, the study also addressed how these answers differed among storms and river systems. The final goal was to determine whether relationships between environmental indicators derived from coincident satellite remote sensing and in situ data sets are sufficiently robust for remote sensing to become a routine water quality monitoring programs. Remote sensing data potentially provide coastal managers with synoptic near-real time regional information about prevailing ocean conditions and hazards that would complement existing field-based sampling protocols, but only if there is a thorough understanding of how to interpret and utilize the proxy measures, such as ocean color. The understanding of these priorities through Bight '03 sampling is intended to provide the basis for developing more efficient, widespread and coast-effective coastal ocean monitoring techniques. Water quality data were collected across eight major river systems within four geographic regions of southern California. Field measurements included the primary contaminants of interest, i.e., bacterial concentrations, water toxicity, and nutrients, as well as related parameters such as temperatures, salinity, total suspended solids, transmissivity, chlorophyll, and colored dissolved organic material (CDOM) concentrations. For each of the four major regions, i.e., Santa Clara/Ventura Rivers, Ballona Creek/Santa Monica Bay, San Pedro Shelf, and the San Diego, Tijuana Rivers, two stormwater events were sampled for up to three days by ship resulting in 574 water column CTD+ profiles and 705 discrete water samples during 36 ship-days. These data were analyzed in combination with MODIS ocean color satellite remote sensing, buoy meteorological observations, drifters, and HF radar current measurements to evaluate the dispersal patterns, dynamics, and impacts of the freshwater runoff plumes. Based on these data and resulting analyses, the principal conclusions were as follow: - Stormwater runoff turbidity plumes were found to be spatially extensive, covering up to 2500 km 2 within the Southern California Bight nearshore zone, and persisting over the entire duration of the post-storm sampling period (at least 3 days). - The spatial and temporal extent of the portion of the plume with contaminants was far less than that of the turbidity plume, typically representing <10% of its area (30-70% off Tijuana); however, with contaminant impacts generally greatly reduced or absent by the third or fourth day of sampling - Pseudo-nitzschia , a harmful algae that produces domoic acid, was found to be more abundant than previously reported. - Accurately describing stormwater runoff plumes requires a combination of in situ and remote sensing assessment tools, with satellite data providing valuable synoptic information. From these conclusions, the following recommendations are provided: - Future studies designed to describe stormwater plumes should include a combination of ship - and remote sensing-based methods. - CDOM is a good proxy of the freshwater runoff plume and should be added as a standard measurement parameter on water quality instrument packages. - Investigations are needed that assess on a local basis the spatial extent of ecological effects of stormwater plumes early in the storm, ideally accompanied by airborne imagery to provide improved temporal & spatial resolution, to fill in knowledge gaps. The next Bight regional monitoring program should focus on quantifying nutrient loadings and dynamics in association with stormwater runoff and other sources, and characterize their attendant ecosystem impacts such as phytoplankton blooms.

California

Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume III”

Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume III of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 and Volume II as PAGEOPH, vol. 174, No. 8, 2017. Two papers in Volume III focus on specific details of the 2009 Samoa and the 1923 northern Kamchatka tsunamis; they are followed by three papers related to tsunami hazard assessment for three different regions of the world oceans: South Africa, Pacific coast of Mexico and the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean. The next six papers are on various aspects of tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling, including tsunami edge waves, resonant behaviour of compressible water layer during tsunamigenic earthquakes, dispersive properties of seismic and volcanically generated tsunami waves, tsunami runup on a vertical wall and influence of earthquake rupture velocity on maximum tsunami runup. Four papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting for Central America, the Mediterranean coast of France, the coast of Peru, and some general problems regarding the optimum use of the DART buoy network for effective real-time tsunami warning in the Pacific Ocean. Two papers describe historical and paleotsunami studies in the Russian Far East. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: asteroid airburst and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Pure and Applied Geophysics

NOAA/West coast and Alaska Tsunami warning center Atlantic Ocean response criteria

West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakesoccurring in the Atlantic and Caribbean basins are presented. Initial warning center decisions are based on an earthquake's location, magnitude, depth, distance from coastal locations, and precomputed threat estimates based on tsunami models computed from similar events. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of sub-sea landslides).The new criteria require development of a threat data base which sets warning or advisory zones based on location, magnitude, and pre-computed tsunami models. The models determine coastal tsunami amplitudes based on likely tsunami source parameters for a given event. Based on the computed amplitude, warning and advisory zones are pre-set.

Science of Tsunami Hazards

Wave driven cross shore and alongshore transport reveal more extreme projections of shoreline change in island environments

Coastal erosion, intensified by sea level rise, poses significant threats to coastal communities in Hawaiʻi and similar island communities. This study projects long-term shoreline change on the Hawaiian Island of O‘ahu using the data-assimilated CoSMoS-COAST shoreline change model. CoSMoS-COAST models four key shoreline processes: (1) Alongshore transport, (2) Recession due to sea level rise, (3) Cross-shore transport due to waves, and (4) Residual processes represented by a linear trend term. This study marks the first application of CoSMoS-COAST for an oceanic equatorial island with narrow beaches and a dynamic wave climate. The model is informed with a novel combination of shoreline data derived from high-resolution imagery from Planet, Sentinel-2, and Landsat satellites, wave-climate hindcasts specific to Hawai‘i, and regional beach-slope surveys. On a dynamic northern Oʻahu beach, the model achieved a root mean square error of 9.4 m between observations and model output. CoSMoS-COAST predicts that 81% of O‘ahu’s sandy beach coastline could experience beach loss by 2100; with 39.8% of this loss happening by 2030. This represents an increase, 43.3%, in net landward shoreline change compared to previous erosion forecasts, for 0.3 m of sea level rise (2050). Additionally, dynamic processes such as cross-shore equilibrium processes and alongshore sediment transport, play a large contribution to gross shoreline change within the next decade, particularly on O ‘ahu’s north and west shores. In the long term, we find that recession due to sea level rise and residual processes dominate, but dynamic, wave-driven processes (longshore and cross-shore transport) still account for 34% of shoreline change between present and 2100. We assert dynamic, wave-driven processes are a crucial addition for accurate modeling of island sandy beach environments. These findings have implications for O‘ahu’s coastal planning and development, suggesting updates to shoreline policies that rely upon erosion forecasting, and highlights the importance of incorporating wave and alongshore transport in erosion models for other Pacific islands.

Hawaii

USGS science for the Nation's changing coasts; shoreline change assessment

The coastline of the United States features some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations in the world and is the site of intense residential, commercial, and industrial development. The coastal zone also has extensive and pristine natural areas, with diverse ecosystems providing essential habitat and resources that support wildlife, fish, and human use. Coastal erosion is a widespread process along most open-ocean shores of the United States that affects both developed and natural coastlines. As the coast changes, there are a wide range of ways that change can affect coastal communities, habitats, and the physical characteristics of the coast?including beach erosion, shoreline retreat, land loss, and damage to infrastructure. Global climate change will likely increase the rate of coastal change. A recent study of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, for example, found that it is virtually certain that sandy beaches will erode faster in the future as sea level rises because of climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for conducting research on coastal change hazards, understanding the processes that cause coastal change, and developing models to predict future change. To understand and adapt to shoreline change, accurate information regarding the past and present configurations of the shoreline is essential. A comprehensive, nationally consistent analysis of shoreline movement is needed. To meet this national need, the USGS is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean coasts of the conterminous United States and parts of Alaska and Hawaii, as well as the coasts of the Great Lakes.

Fact Sheet

Environmental Assessment for a Marine Geophysical Survey of Parts of the Arctic Ocean, August-September 2010

According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), individual nations? sovereign rights extend to 200 nautical miles (n.mi.) (370 km) offshore or to a maritime boundary in an area called the continental shelf. These rights include jurisdiction over all resources in the water column and on and beneath the seabed. Article 76 of UNCLOS also establishes the criteria to determine areas beyond the 200 n.mi. (370 km) limit that could be defined as ?extended continental shelf,? where a nation could extend its sovereign rights over the seafloor and sub-seafloor (As used in UNCLOS, ?continental shelf? refers to a legally defined region of the sea floor rather than a morphological shallow-water area adjacent to continents commonly used by geologists and hydrographers.). This jurisdiction provided in Article 76 includes resources on and below the seafloor but not in the water column. The United States has been acquiring data to determine the outer limits of its extended continental shelf in the Arctic and has a vested interest in declaring and receiving international recognition of the reach of its extended continental shelf. The U.S. collaborated with Canada in 2008 and 2009 on extended continental shelf studies in the Arctic Ocean. The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) Cutter Healy worked with the Canadian Coast Guard ship Louis S. St. Laurent to map the continental shelf beyond 200 n.mi. (370 km) in the Arctic. Each icebreaking vessel contributed different capabilities in order to collect data needed by both nations more efficiently in order to save money, avoid redundancy, and foster cooperation. Generally, the Healy collects bathymetric (sea-floor topography) data and the Louis S. St. Laurent collects seismic reflection profile data. The vessels work in concert when ice conditions are heavy, with one vessel breaking ice for the ship collecting data. The Canadian Environmental Assessments for these projects are available on line at http://www.ceaa.gc.ca/052/details-eng.cfm?pid=38185 (2008) and http://www.ceaa.gc.ca/052/details-eng.cfm?pid=46518 (2009). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) are undertaking a similar partnership again for 2010 in a limited area of U.S. waters during the period between ~10 and 16 August. The survey vessels will then proceed to international or Canadian waters where surveying will proceed until ~3 September, when the two icebreakers will separate to conduct independent work. The survey area of the joint work will be bounded approximately by 145? to 158? W longitude and 71? to 84? N latitude in water depths ranging from ~2,000 to 4,000 m (fig. 1). Ice conditions are expected to range from open water to 10/10 ice cover. The Louis S. St. Laurent will join accompanying vessel Healy in or near the survey area around 10 August to begin the joint survey work. As its energy source, the seismic system aboard Louis S. St. Laurent will employ a 3-airgun array consisting of three Sercel G-airguns. Two guns will have a discharge volume of 500 in3 and the third a discharge volume of 150 in3 for a total array discharge volume of 1,150 in3. The seismic survey will take place in water depths 2,000?4,000 m. This airgun array is identical to the system used in the 2008 and 2009 field programs by the Geological Survey of Canada. The USGS requested that the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) issue an Incidental Harassment Authorization (IHA) to authorize the incidental, that is, not intentional, harassment of small numbers of cetaceans and seals should this occur during the seismic survey in U.S. waters. USGS is also consulting with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) regarding concerns about disturbance to walruses and polar bears. Through informal consultation with the Office of Protected Resources with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS proposes that no ESA-listed marine species?bowhead, fin, humpback or sperm whale?w

Open-File Report

The geology, botany and chemistry of selected peat-forming environments from temperate and tropical latitudes

Peat has been studied in several geologic settings: (1) glaciated terrain in cold temperate Maine and Minnesota, U.S.A.; (2) an island in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Maine, where sea level is rising; (3) the warm temperate U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, where sea level has changed often; and (4) the tropical coast of Sarawak, Malaysia, and the tropical delta of the Batang Hari River, Sumatra, Indonesia. Most of these deposits are domed (ombrotrophic or partly ombrotrophic) bogs in which peat accumulation continued above the surface of the surrounding soil. However, the bogs of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains are comparatively not as domed, and many have almost level surfaces. In some bogs, aquatic or semi-aquatic plant materials accumulated, replaced water in the depressions, and formed a surface on which marsh or swamp vegetation could subsequently live, die, and accumulate. In others, the plant materials accumulated initially on level silt or sand surfaces supporting marshes or swamps. As the peat dome formed, plants growing on it changed from luxuriant ones near the base of the dome, where nutrients were brought into the bog by surface and ground water, to stunted ones at the top of the dome, where the raised bogs are fed by nutrient-poor precipitation. The physical and chemical changes that take place in the sequence of environments from the pond stage of deposit development, through the grassy marsh stage, through the forested swamp stage, and finally through the heath dome stage can be measured in terms of acidity and ash, volatile matter, carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, sulfur and oxygen contents, as well as in the kind and distribution of trace elements. The organic and inorganic contents of the deposits relate to geomorphology, and geomorphology relates to their settings. As models of coal formation, some domed peat deposits may help in solving problems of distribution and character of ancient coal beds. But clearly not all peat deposits are precursors of coal. Most Holocene peat deposits are subject to destruction by erosion, fire and decomposition through microbial and chemical oxidation before burial. The best environments for coal precursors have biomass accumulation, a continuously rising water table within the mass, and minimum influx of clay and silt until preservation by burial. The most suitable settings for future economic coal deposits are domed bogs that accumulate thick, widespread peat having low ash and low sulfur contents. The ombrotrophic peat deposits of tropical Sarawak and Sumatra are thick and extensive, contain low-ash and low-sulfur peat, and have high heating values. They are considered to be the best tropical coal analogs because of their extent and chances of preservation; the base of the peat is below adjacent river levels, and chemical and structural conditions are favorable for accumulation.

International Journal of Coal Geology

The geology of selected peat-forming environments in temperate and tropical latitudes

We studied peat in several geologic and climatic settings: (1) a glaciated terrain in cold-temperate Maine and Minnesota, U.S.A.; (2) an island in a temperate maritime climate in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Maine, U.S.A., where sea level is rising rapidly and changing the environment of peat accumulation; (3) swamps along the warm-temperate U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, where sea level has changed often, thus creating sites for accumulation; and (4) in a tropical climate along the coast of Sarawak, Malaysia, and the delta of the Batang Hari River, Sumatra, Indonesia (Figs. 1 and 2). With the exception of the deposits on the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, most of the deposits described are domed bogs in which peat accumulation continued above the surface of the surrounding soil. The bogs of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains have almost level surfaces. All domed bogs are not entirely ombrotrophic (watered only from precipitation); multidomed bogs that rise from irregular or hilly surfaces may be crossed by streams that supply water to the bogs. The geologic processes or organic sedimentation, namely terrestrialization and paludification, are similar in all peat deposits considered here. Differences in geomorphology affecting the quantity and that quality of peat that has ash contents of less than 25%, which are desirable for commercial purposes, depend chiefly on: (1) high humidity, which is favorable to luxuriant growth of peat-forming vegetation; (2) a depositional setting that permits extensive accumulation relatively free from inorganic contamination from sea water and streams and from dust and volcanic ash; and (3) a stable regional water table that controls the rate of decomposition under aerobic conditions and protects the deposit against the ravages of fire. Differences in peat textures are due to the type of vegetation and to the degree of decomposition. The rate of decomposition is largely the result of the amount of oxidation and aerobic microbial activity. Stratigraphic distribution of various textures and amounts of inorganic components within a peat deposit is largely determined by the vertical positions occupied by peat-forming environments, such as pond, marsh, swamp and heath where vegetation accumulated, and the depth to zones of unoxygenated water. Peat also differs in the rate of accumulation. On the basis of carbon-14 dating, an estimated 8 m of peat in the tropical Batang Hari River deposit in Sumatra has been accumulating at the rate of about 1.5 m/1,000 yr, whereas peat in the cold-temperate deposit in Maine has been accumulating at the rate of 0.66 m/1,000 yr. Accumulation rates in domed deposits such as these are affected not only by factors controlling volume of biomass and aerobic decay but also by stream erosion and fires that remove peat. Such disconformities (see Fig. 2) within the deposit may be recognized by sudden vertical changes in degree of decomposition and/or the presence of charcoal. The trace-element content of peat deposits is affected by the environments of their settings. Samples of peat that have an ash content of less than 25% dry weight and that are from small, almost level swamp deposits along the Atlantic Coastal Plain of North Carolina were compared with similar samples from small domed bogs in Maine, a glaciated area. Samples from Nort Carolina, which are from deposits in thick fluvial and nearshore marine sediments far from the bedrock source, are generally higher in Ti, Cr and Pb. The Maine samples from deposits in glacial drift close to the bedrock source contain more Zn, Mn, P, Ca, Na and Fe. The kind and amount of trace elements within the deposits appear to relate largely to depositional setting, to kinds of bedrock source, and to the modes of transportation from source to peat swamp. Trace-element concentrations in the extensive Sumatra peat deposit, which represents a potentially commercial coal bed, are similar to those found in Appalachian coals except for As and Au, which are higher in the former. This similarity most likely implies that geochemical controls on mineral matter controlled the concentrations in both. Most peat deposits found in the world today are not precursors of economic coal beds because they are too local in extent, lack beds of commercial-quality peat greater than 6 m thick, and/or are too far from sea level to be rapidly by marine or marginal marine sediments before destruction by erosion and decomposition. However, the two domed deposits in Sarawak and Sumatra described above are parts of extensive, thick, low-sulfur, fuel-quality peat deposits, which have bases below the levels of rivers on coastal deltas. These are likely to be preserved in their lower part and to become precursors of tropical coal seams of potential economic importance. The lenticular and tabular peat deposits of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, which have little chance of survival, have features resembling those in Tertiary peat deposits in alluvial settings of western North America. The quality, shape, and extent of modern and ancient peat deposits are controlled by the same factors - humidity, vegetation type, ground- and surface-water regimes, and physiographic and geologic setting. Thus, a study of modern peat deposits may help in studies of the areal distribution and the thickness and quality of ancient coal beds.

International Journal of Coal Geology

Effects of earthquakes, trains tides, winds, and atmospheric pressure changes on water in the geologic formations of southern Florida

Determination of such fundamental hydrologic factors as the coefficients of permeability, transmissibility, and storage; areas of recharge and discharge; direction of ground-water movement; the safe yield; and other pertinent, related factors are based in part upon water-level measurements in wells. But these water-level readings, if not properly understood or weighted, may be entirely misleading. This is because water levels are neither stationary nor steadily rising (with recharge) or falling (with discharge). Water levels fluctuate as a result of several factors other than those of changes in recharge or discharge, chief among which are: (1) tides; (2) atmospheric pressure; (3) winds; (4) earthquakes; and (5) passing trains. Characteristically, artesian aquifers respond to these forces in a manner different from that of nonartesian aquifers, but in some places local geologic conditions in a nonartesian aquifer may cause water-level fluctuations ordinarily found only in artesian wells. Among the unusual features observed is a 4.5-foot fluctuation of water level in a Miami well caused by earthquake waves originating 750 miles away in the Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of the Dominican Republic. Quakes from all over the world are responsible for water-level fluctuations in this and other wells in the Miami area.

Florida

The ecological condition of estuaries in the Gulf of Mexico

The Gulf of Mexico is a vast natural resource encompassing the coastal areas of western Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas, as well as a portion of Mexico. Many estuaries flow into the Gulf of Mexico and serve as nursery grounds for fish, habitat for a wide variety of wildlife, shipping routes, and a source of recreation. Estuarine-dependent species constitute more than 95 percent of the commercial fishery harvests from the Gulf of Mexico, and many important recreational fishery species depend on estuaries during some part of their life cycle. Gulf estuaries are diverse and productive ecosystems that provide a variety of valuable resources, including fish and shellfish, recreation, transportation, and water supply. Assessing the overall condition of Gulf of Mexico estuaries required incorporating data from other federal, state, and local monitoring programs to augment the information on ecological indicators collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). The resulting document would provide a synthesis of the available knowledge about the condition of Gulf of Mexico estuaries. This document is intended for use by scientists and other citizens concerned with the ecological condition of estuaries, as well as by managers and lawmakers interested in the sustained use of estuaries for commercial and recreational purposes. It also addresses public concerns about the aesthetic quality of coastal areas vital to tourism and recreation. By producing this report on the ecological condition of estuaries in the Gulf of Mexico, we have taken one step in assessing the health of this environmental resource. We have produced an environmental “report card” to be used as a guide in the evaluation of management decisions and research directions. This report is organized in three parts: (1) an introduction that gives background information on the Gulf of Mexico, estuarine ecology, and the factors that impact estuaries in the gulf, (2) the main section on priority ecological indicators used to measure the condition of estuaries in the gulf and (3) an ecological report card that summarizes the data on ecological indicators and provides a rating of the condition of estuaries in each gulf state and for gulf estuaries overall. Many of the ratings were based on the percent area of estuaries in each state exhibiting degraded or adverse levels of an indicator. Eutrophication, a condition of high nutrients often resulting in low oxygen levels and other adverse effects, is an important water quality concern for estuaries along the gulf coast. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has compared the Gulf of Mexico to other coastal regions like the middle Atlantic and has ranked the Gulf of Mexico as having the highest number of point sources of nutrients and the highest percentage of land use devoted to agriculture. We evaluated monitoring data for nitrogen, chlorophyll, and dissolved oxygen as indicators of eutrophication. Although most of the estuaries exhibited high nitrogen or chlorophyll or low dissolved oxygen concentrations at least once during a survey, many times these conditions were observed in small rivers or bayous rather than in the entire estuary. Often, the percent area affected was low. The gulf estuaries had moderate conditions overall for nutrients and dissolved oxygen. Definite nutrient problems were observed in >25% of the estuarine area in Louisiana and Texas and definite dissolved oxygen problems were observed in Alabama. Contaminants in estuarine sediments provide evidence of the accumulation of chemicals from anthropogenic sources. We compared the concentrations of sediment contaminants to established guideline values to determine the proportion of estuarine area that could have potential adverse effects on living organisms. Although detectable levels of contaminants were measured in almost every estuary in the Gulf of Mexico, <25% of the estuarine area in all states had contaminant concentrations that exceeded these guidelines. Wetlands are integral parts of estuarine systems. Declining acreage means habitat loss that may be the result of commercial and residential development, hydrologic alterations, or dredge and fill operations. The Gulf of Mexico region contains more than 50% of the coastal wetland acreage in the U.S. and yet it also has the highest rate of coastal wetland loss. Nine of the top ten estuarine drainage areas ranked by total wetland area are in the Gulf of Mexico region. The most current estimates of total wetland loss over the past 200 years range from 41% to 54% for the gulf states. Although coastal wetlands continue to be altered or destroyed, some estimates indicate that the rate of loss has slowed. All gulf states were rated as having severe problems with wetland loss. The condition of benthic (bottom-dwelling) invertebrates, fish and shellfish, birds, and threatened and endangered species was used to evaluate the health of estuarine fauna. Degraded benthic communities inhabited <25% of the estuarine area in all gulf states except for Texas. Commercial fish and shellfish landings may be used as an indicator of population stability while fish biomarkers are used to measure the health of individuals in the population. Commercial landings of the top four fisheries (shrimp, menhaden, blue crab, and oyster) are stable in the gulf states while fish biomarkers indicate fair to poor fish health in Alabama and Texas and good fish health elsewhere. Coastal and marine bird populations appear to be in good condition throughout the gulf. Four threatened or endangered species inhabit coastal areas in the Gulf of Mexico: brown pelican, Gulf sturgeon, manatee, and Kemp’s ridley sea turtle. In general, populations of these species are in good to fair condition in the gulf states. Public health indicators include shellfish bed closures and chemicals found in edible fish tissue. Harvest of shellfish (primarily oyster in the Gulf of Mexico) is restricted or prohibited when concentrations of bacteria or other pathogens reach levels that could impair human health. The gulf states contain the most acreage of shellfish-growing waters in the U.S. but also have the most acreage restricted for harvest. All gulf states except Mississippi have >25% of their shellfish-growing waters restricted for harvest, mostly due to pollution from wastewater treatment plants or other upstream sources. Advisories may be issued that limit consumption when the concentrations of chemicals in fish tissue exceed levels known to be harmful to humans. Although seafood consumption advisories have been issued in all gulf states, the percent of the fish population with high concentrations of contaminants is relatively low in the gulf overall.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas

Estimated average annualized tsunami losses for the United States

Tsunami hazards are substantial threats to coastal communities across the United States (U.S.) and its territories. U.S. states and territories collaborate through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to develop their own tsunami-hazard information for outreach and evacuation planning. An effort to curate this tsunami-hazard information to support comprehensive risk analysis at the national level has not yet been completed. In support of this effort, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) collaborated with the NTHMP, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) starting in 2023. This collaboration included the collection and analysis of existing tsunami hazard data and methods in the U.S. Tsunami subject matter experts identified and selected scientifically defensible methods for estimating the risks to buildings and populations in coastal communities. These efforts may support decision making regarding resilience policies, priorities, strategies and funding levels. Tsunamis can be triggered by earthquakes, subaerial or submarine landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather or other events. These events can cause severe destruction, injuries, and loss of life due to powerful currents and flooding. Tsunamis pose a substantial threat to the western United States and all U.S. territories, as described below. ■ Hawaii is threatened by distant tsunamis due to its central location in the Pacific Ocean basin and has a history of local events. ■ Alaska, particularly the Aleutian Islands, faces local tsunami threats due to proximity to the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone, as well as distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin. ■ The western coast of the U.S. is threatened by distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin and local source tsunamis from earthquakes generated within the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest. ■ American Samoa faces local tsunami threats from earthquakes generated in the nearby Tonga Trench, as well as distant tsunami threats. ■ Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands are threatened by local tsunamis from the nearby Mariana Subduction Zone, as well as distant sources from around the Pacific Ocean Basin. ■ Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands are threatened by multiple local and distant tsunami sources, such as the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT), given their location in the complex seismic region of the Caribbean Sea. Several historical events stand out because of their catastrophic impacts. ■ In the Pacific Northwest, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake caused a tsunami that affected coastal Native American communities, though the extent of the damage is not fully documented (Ludwin, et al., 2005). ■ In Puerto Rico, the 1918 earthquake triggered a tsunami that caused $77 million in damage in 2022 dollars and 116 fatalities, primarily along the western coast (Coffman et al., 1982). ■ The 1946 Aleutian Islands earthquake triggered a massive tsunami that devastated Hilo, Hawaii, killing 158 people and resulting in approximately $375 million in damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Fisher et al., 2023). ■ The 1964 Alaska earthquake (M 9.2) generated tsunamis that caused severe destruction in some communities across Alaska, Oregon, and California. This disaster led to a total of 124 fatalities and approximately $2.9 billion in property damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Brocher et al., 2014) (Alaska Science Center, 2024). ■ In American Samoa, a tsunami generated by the 2009 Samoa earthquake (Mw 8.1) caused widespread devastation, resulting in 34 confirmed fatalities (Apatu et al., 2013) and economic losses exceeding $160 million (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (DHS, 2011). More recent events, including the 2010 Chile earthquake, the 2011 Japan earthquake, and the 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption, resulted in millions of dollars in damage to numerous ports and harbors in the U.S. South Pacific territories, Hawaii, and along the west coast of the U.S. (Lynett, et al., 2022) (Wilson, et al., 2013). Since these events, the expansion of the built environment in lowlying areas along the coast has increased the exposure of buildings and people, thereby further escalating community risk from tsunamis. This report provides a comprehensive national assessment of earthquake-generated tsunami risk. It does not include impacts from tsunamis generated by landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather, or other events. This study is based on the best available hazard data from the U.S. Pacific Coast (California, Oregon and Washington), Alaska, Hawaii, U.S. Pacific Territories (American Samoa, Guam and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands) and Caribbean Territories (Puerto Rico and United States Virgin Islands). Tsunami risks associated with states along the East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Great Lakes are not included in this study because Hazus 6.1 software (FEMA 2024a) does not currently include the ability to analyze tsunami risk in those states. Once modeling capabilities and tsunami hazard data become available for additional states, FEMA may incorporate these data into future editions of this study.

Alaska, California, Hawaii Oregon, Washington

Rare earth element behavior during groundwater – seawater mixing along the Kona Coast of Hawaii

Groundwater and seawater samples were collected from nearshore wells and offshore along the Kona Coast of the Big Island of Hawaii to investigate rare earth element (REE) behavior in local subterranean estuaries. Previous investigations showed that submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is the predominant flux of terrestrial waters to the coastal ocean along the arid Kona Coast of Hawaii. Groundwater and seawater samples were filtered through 0.45 μm and 0.02 μm pore-size filters to evaluate the importance of colloidal and soluble (i.e., truly dissolved ionic species and/or low molecular weight [LMW] colloids) fractions of the REEs in the local subterranean estuaries. Mixing experiments using groundwater collected immediately down gradient from a wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) proximal to the Kaloko-Hanokohau National Historic Park, and more “pristine” groundwater from a well constructed in a lava tube at Kiholo Bay, were mixed with local seawater to study the effect of solution composition (i.e., pH, salinity) on the concentrations and fractionation behavior of the REEs as groundwater mixes with seawater in Kona Coast subterranean estuaries. The mixed waters were also filtered through 0.45 or 0.02 μm filters to ascertain the behavior of colloidal and soluble fractions of the REEs across the salinity gradient in each mixing experiment. Concentrations of the REEs were statistically identical (two-tailed Student t -test, 95% confidence) between the sequentially filtered sample aliquots, indicating that the REEs occur as dissolved ionic species and/or LMW colloids in Kona Coast groundwaters. The mixing experiments revealed that the REEs are released to solution from suspended particles or colloids when Kona Coast groundwater waters mix with local seawater. The order of release that accompanies increasing pH and salinity follows light REE (LREE) > middle REE (MREE) > heavy REE (HREE). Release of REEs in the mixing experiments is driven by decreases in the free metal ion activity in solution and the concomitant increase in the amount of each REE that occurs in solution as dicarbonato complexes [i.e., Ln(CO 3 ) 2 - ] as pH increases across the salinity gradient. Input-normalized REE patterns of Kona Coast groundwater and coastal seawater are nearly identical and relatively flat compared to North Pacific seawater, indicating that SGD is the chief source of these trace elements to the ocean along the Kona Coast. Additionally, REE concentrations of the coastal seawater are between 10 and 50 times higher than previously reported open-ocean seawater values from the North Pacific, further demonstrating the importance of SGD fluxes of REEs to these coastal waters. Taken together, these observations indicate that large-scale removal of REEs, which characterizes the behavior of REEs in the low salinity reaches of many surface estuaries, is not a feature of the subterranean estuary along the Kona Coast. A large positive gadolinium (Gd) anomaly characterizes groundwater from the vicinity of the WWTF. The positive Gd anomaly can be traced to the coastal ocean, providing further evidence of the impact of SGD on the coastal waters. Estimates of the SGD fluxes of the REEs to the coastal ocean along the Kona Coast (i.e., 1.3 – 2.6 mmol Nd day -1 ) are similar to recent estimates of SGD fluxes of REEs along Florida’s east coast and to Rhode Island Sound, all of which points to the importance of SGD as significant flux of REEs to the coastal ocean.

Hawaii

2010 Joint United States-Canadian Program to explore the limits of the Extended Continental Shelf aboard U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy--Cruise HLY1002

In August and September 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada, conducted bathymetric and geophysical surveys in the Beaufort Sea and eastern Arctic Ocean aboard the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy. The principal objective of this mission to the high Arctic was to acquire data in support of a delineation of the outer limits of the U.S. and Canadian Extended Continental Shelf in the Arctic Ocean, in accordance with the provisions of Article 76 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The Healy was accompanied by the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Louis S. St-Laurent. The scientific parties on board the two vessels consisted principally of staff from the U.S. Geological Survey (Healy), and the Geological Survey of Canada and the Canadian Hydrographic Service (Louis). The crew also included marine-mammal observers, Native-community observers, ice observers, and biologists conducting research of opportunity in the Arctic Ocean. Despite interruptions necessitated by three medical emergencies, the joint survey proved largely successful. The Healy collected 7,201 trackline-kilometers of swath (multibeam) bathymetry (47,663 square kilometers) and CHIRP subbottom data, with accompanying marine gravity measurements, and expendable bathythermograph data. The Louis acquired 3,673 trackline-kilometers of multichannel seismic (airgun) deep-penetration reflection data along 25 continuous profiles, as well as 34 sonobuoy refraction stations and 9,500 trackline-kilometers of single-beam bathymetry. The coordinated efforts of the two vessels resulted in seismic-reflection-profile data that were of much higher quality and continuity than if the data had been acquired with a single vessel alone. The equipment-failure rate of the seismic equipment aboard the Louis was greatly reduced when the Healy led as the ice breaker. When ice conditions proved too severe to deploy the seismic system, the Louis led the Healy, resulting in much improved quality of the swath bathymetric and CHIRP subbottom data in comparison with data collected either by the Healy in the lead or the Healy working alone. During periods when the Healy was operating alone (principally when the Louis was diverted for emergency medical evacuations or ship repairs), the Healy was able to deploy a piston-core-sampler (10 meters maximum potential recovery depending on configuration). The coring operations resulted in recovery of cores at five locations ranging from 2.4 to 5.7 meters in length from water depths ranging from 1,157 to 3,700 meters. One of these cores sited on the Alaskan margin recovered the first reported occurrence of methane hydrate from the Arctic Ocean. Ancillary science objectives, including ice observations and deployment of ice-monitoring buoys and water-column sampling to measure acidification of Arctic waters were successfully conducted. The water-column sampling included using 10 full-ocean-depth, water-sampling casts with accompanying conductivity-temperature-depth measurements. Except for the data deemed proprietary, data from the cruise have been archived and are available for download at the National Geophysical Data Center and at cooperating organizations. Outreach staff and guest teachers aboard the two vessels provided near-real-time connection between the research activities and the public through online blogs, web pages, and other media.

Open-File Report

Black Scoter habitat use along the southeastern coast of the United States

While the Atlantic Coast of the United States and Canada is a major wintering area for sea ducks, knowledge about their wintering habitat use is relatively limited. Black Scoters have a broad wintering distribution and are the only open water species of sea duck that is abundant along the southeastern coast of the United States. Our study identified variables that affected Black Scoter ( Melanitta americana ) distribution and abundance in the Atlantic Ocean along the southeastern coast of the United States. We used aerial survey data from 2009 to 2012 provided by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service to identify variables that influenced Black Scoter distribution. We used indicator variable selection to evaluate relationships between Black Scoter habitat use and a variety of broad- and fine-scale oceanographic and weather variables. Average time between waves, ocean floor slope, and the interaction of bathymetry and distance to shore had the strongest association with southeastern Black Scoter distribution.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina,

Regional acidification trends in Florida shellfish estuaries: A 20+ year look at pH, oxygen, temperature, and salinity

Increasing global CO 2 and local land use changes coupled with increased nutrient pollution are threatening estuaries worldwide. Local changes of estuarine chemistry have been documented, but regional associations and trends comparing multiple estuaries latitudinally have not been evaluated. Rapid climate change has impacted the annual and decadal chemical trends in estuaries, with local ecosystem processes enhancing or mitigating the responses. Here, we compare pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity data from 10 Florida shellfish estuaries and hundreds of shellfish bed stations. Over 80,000 measurements, spanning from 1980 to 2008, taken on Atlantic Ocean and West Florida coast showed significant regional trends of consistent pH decreases in 8 out of the 10 estuaries, with an average rate of decrease on the Gulf of Mexico side estuaries of Florida of 7.3 × 10 −4 pH units year −1 , and average decrease on the Atlantic Coast estuaries of 5.0 × 10 −4 pH units year −1 . The rates are approximately 2–3.4 times slower than observed in pH decreases associated with ocean acidification in the Atlantic and Pacific. Other significant trends observed include decreasing dissolved oxygen in 9 out of the 10 estuaries, increasing salinity in 6 out of the 10, and temperature increases in 3 out of the 10 estuaries. The data provide a synoptic regional view of Florida estuary trends which reflect the complexity of changing climate and coastal ocean acidification superimposed on local conditions. These data provide context for understanding, and interpreting the past and predicting future of regional water quality health of shellfish and other organisms of commercial and ecological significance along Florida’s coasts.

Estuaries and Coasts

Preliminary study of methods for upgrading USGS Antarctic seismological capability

The purpose of this study is to evaluate potential methods for obtaining higher quality seismic data from Antarctica. Currently, USGS-sponsored WWSSN stations are located at Scott Base, Sanae Base, and at South Pole Station. Scott and Sanae Stations are located near the coast; data obtained from coastal installations are normally degraded by noise generated by ocean wave action on the coast. Operations at South Pole are rather difficult because of the severe environmental characteristics and the extended logistics which are required to provide supplies and operating personnel to its remote location. Short-period data quality from Pole Station has been moderately high with a short-period magnification of 100K at 1Hz.

Open-File Report

Establishing the foundation for the global observing system for marine life

Maintaining healthy, productive ecosystems in the face of pervasive and accelerating human impacts including climate change requires globally coordinated and sustained observations of marine biodiversity. Global coordination is predicated on an understanding of the scope and capacity of existing monitoring programs, and the extent to which they use standardized, interoperable practices for data management. Global coordination also requires identification of gaps in spatial and ecosystem coverage, and how these gaps correspond to management priorities and information needs. We undertook such an assessment by conducting an audit and gap analysis from global databases and structured surveys of experts. Of 371 survey respondents, 203 active, long-term (>5 years) observing programs systematically sampled marine life. These programs spanned about 7% of the ocean surface area, mostly concentrated in coastal regions of the United States, Canada, Europe, and Australia. Seagrasses, mangroves, hard corals, and macroalgae were sampled in 6% of the entire global coastal zone. Two-thirds of all observing programs offered accessible data, but methods and conditions for access were highly variable. Our assessment indicates that the global observing system is largely uncoordinated which results in a failure to deliver critical information required for informed decision-making such as, status and trends, for the conservation and sustainability of marine ecosystems and provision of ecosystem services. Based on our study, we suggest four key steps that can increase the sustainability, connectivity and spatial coverage of biological Essential Ocean Variables in the global ocean: (1) sustaining existing observing programs and encouraging coordination among these; (2) continuing to strive for data strategies that follow FAIR principles (findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable); (3) utilizing existing ocean observing platforms and enhancing support to expand observing along coasts of developing countries, in deep ocean basins, and near the poles; and (4) targeting capacity building efforts. Following these suggestions could help create a coordinated marine biodiversity observing system enabling ecological forecasting and better planning for a sustainable use of ocean resources.

Frontiers in Marine Science