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USGS2019

Social–ecological mismatches create conservation challenges in introduced species management

Introduced species can have important effects on the component species and processes of native ecosystems. However, effective introduced species management can be complicated by technical and social challenges. We identify “social–ecological mismatches” (that is, differences between the scales and functioning of interacting social and ecological systems) as one such challenge. We present three case studies in which mismatches between the organization and functioning of key social and ecological systems have contributed to controversies and debates surrounding introduced species management and policy. We identify three common issues: social systems and cultures may adapt to a new species’ arrival at a different rate than ecosystems; ecological impacts can arise at one spatial scale while social impacts occur at another; and the effects of introduced species can spread widely, whereas management actions are constrained by organizational and/or political boundaries. We propose strategies for collaborative knowledge building and adaptive management that may help address these challenges.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2013

Geospace environment modeling 2008--2009 challenge: D st index

This paper reports the metrics-based results of the D st index part of the 2008–2009 GEM Metrics Challenge. The 2008–2009 GEM Metrics Challenge asked modelers to submit results for four geomagnetic storm events and five different types of observations that can be modeled by statistical, climatological or physics-based models of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. We present the results of 30 model settings that were run at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center and at the institutions of various modelers for these events. To measure the performance of each of the models against the observations, we use comparisons of 1 hour averaged model data with the D st index issued by the World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto, Japan, and direct comparison of 1 minute model data with the 1 minute D st index calculated by the United States Geological Survey. The latter index can be used to calculate spectral variability of model outputs in comparison to the index. We find that model rankings vary widely by skill score used. None of the models consistently perform best for all events. We find that empirical models perform well in general. Magnetohydrodynamics-based models of the global magnetosphere with inner magnetosphere physics (ring current model) included and stand-alone ring current models with properly defined boundary conditions perform well and are able to match or surpass results from empirical models. Unlike in similar studies, the statistical models used in this study found their challenge in the weakest events rather than the strongest events.

Space Weather↗

USGS2026

Abundance, trends, and challenges facing mountain goats throughout their North American distribution

Recent declines among some mountain goat ( Oreamnos americanus ) populations have heightened concern about their current status and ability to cope with future challenges. We conducted a range-wide assessment of the status of mountain goats across their distribution to understand the extent and patterns of change in recent years. We queried states, provinces, National Parks, and Indigenous governments with territories and reserves containing local wild populations, requesting updates on estimated mountain goat abundance and trends over time, as well as qualitative assessments of conservation challenges. We supplemented the questionnaires with existing literature (both published and available from agency websites). We subjected a subset of mountain goat population time−series to exploratory meta-analyses, examining covariates associated with rates of change. Respondents identified 203 units within which estimates were documented, a majority of which were raw counts from aircraft; fewer jurisdictions used site-specific sightability models, mark-recapture statistics, or other approaches to account for imperfect detection. Jurisdictions updated unit-specific estimates on average every 4.0 years (SD = 2.9, Min–Max = 1–24 years). Among 152 qualitative estimates of trends of native populations, 3% were reported as having increased substantially, 10% as having increased slightly, 24% as having declined slightly, and 14% as having declined substantially (49% reported either no detectable trend or insufficient data to identify a trend). Among 133 estimates of trends of introduced or pioneering populations, 5% increased substantially, 24% increased slightly, 20% declined slightly, and 11% declined substantially (40% reported no detectable trend). Jurisdiction-wide abundance estimates were lower than those previously published in all jurisdictions except Colorado and Oregon, and in Alaska, where trends were unclear. Intrinsic rates of increase ( r ) were positively associated with the population being introduced or pioneering, negatively associated with heavy snow and, to a lesser extent, with drought, but were not associated with abundance or presence of hunter harvest. Existing evidence suggested that many local populations, especially native populations, have declined, but understanding of specific causes has been constrained by limited monitoring capacity. Greater spatiotemporal monitoring effort and detailed studies would inform appropriate strategies to address threats and future challenges to mountain goats.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2010

Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others (‘ reinventing the wheel ’). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available (‘ having tunnel vision ’). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its ‘leading principle’, there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single ‘right’ approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models.

Aquatic Ecology↗

USGS2005

Suburban wildlife: Lessons, challenges, and opportunities

The United States, as well as most developed and many developing nations worldwide, is becoming increasingly urban and suburban.Although urban, suburban, and commercial development account for less than one percent to just over 20% of land use among states, 50-90% of the residents of those states can be classified as urban or suburban dwellers. The population of the U.S. as a whole has risen from being > 95% rural in the 1790s to about 80% urban-suburban today. With these changes in land use and demographic patterns come changes in values and attitudes; many urbanites and suburbanites view wildlife and nature differently than rural residents. These are among the challenges faced by wildlife biologists and natural resource managers in a rapidly urbanizing world. In 2003, we convened a symposium to discuss issues related to suburban wildlife. The papers presented in this special issue of Urban Ecosystems address the lessons learned from the early and recently rapidly expanding literature, the challenges we face today, and the opportunities that can help deal with what is one of the biggest challenges to conservation in a modernizing world. ?? 2005 Springer Science + Business Media, Inc.

Urban Ecosystems↗

USGS2016

The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

Environmental Impact Assessment Review↗

USGS2022

Africa’s drylands in a changing world: Challenges for wildlife conservation under climate and land-use changes in the Greater Etosha Landscape

Proclaimed in 1907, Etosha National Park in northern Namibia is an iconic dryland system with a rich history of wildlife conservation and research. A recent research symposium on wildlife conservation in the Greater Etosha Landscape (GEL) highlighted increased concern of how intensification of global change will affect wildlife conservation based on participant responses to a questionnaire. The GEL includes Etosha and surrounding areas, the latter divided by a veterinary fence into large, private farms to the south and communal areas of residential and farming land to the north. Here, we leverage our knowledge of this ecosystem to provide insight into the broader challenges facing wildlife conservation in this vulnerable dryland environment. We first look backward, summarizing the history of wildlife conservation and research trends in the GEL based on a literature review, providing a broad-scale understanding of the socioecological processes that drive dryland system dynamics. We then look forward, focusing on eight key areas of challenge and opportunity for this ecosystem: climate change, water availability and quality, vegetation and fire management, adaptability of wildlife populations, disease risk, human-wildlife conflict, wildlife crime, and human dimensions of wildlife conservation. Using this model system, we summarize key lessons and identify critical threats highlighting future research needs to support wildlife management. Research in the GEL has followed a trajectory seen elsewhere reflecting an increase in complexity and integration across biological scales over time. Yet, despite these trends, a gap exists between the scope of recent research efforts and the needs of wildlife conservation to adapt to climate and land-use changes. Given the complex nature of climate change, in addition to locally existing system stressors, a framework of forward-thinking adaptive management to address these challenges, supported by integrative and multidisciplinary research could be beneficial. One critical area for growth is to better integrate research and wildlife management across land-use types. Such efforts have the potential to support wildlife conservation efforts and human development goals, while building resilience against the impacts of climate change. While our conclusions reflect the specifics of the GEL ecosystem, they have direct relevance for other African dryland systems impacted by global change.

Africa, Greater Etosha Landscape↗

USGS2016

Challenges for mapping cyanotoxin patterns from remote sensing of cyanobacteria

Using satellite imagery to quantify the spatial patterns of cyanobacterial toxins has several challenges. These challenges include the need for surrogate pigments – since cyanotoxins cannot be directly detected by remote sensing, the variability in the relationship between the pigments and cyanotoxins – especially microcystins (MC), and the lack of standardization of the various measurement methods. A dual-model strategy can provide an approach to address these challenges. One model uses either chlorophyll -a (Chl -a ) or phycocyanin (PC) collected in situ as a surrogate to estimate the MC concentration. The other uses a remote sensing algorithm to estimate the concentration of the surrogate pigment. Where blooms are mixtures of cyanobacteria and eukaryotic algae, PC should be the preferred surrogate to Chl -a . Where cyanobacteria dominate, Chl -a is a better surrogate than PC for remote sensing. Phycocyanin is less sensitive to detection by optical remote sensing, it is less frequently measured, PC laboratory methods are still not standardized, and PC has greater intracellular variability. Either pigment should not be presumed to have a fixed relationship with MC for any water body. The MC-pigment relationship can be valid over weeks, but have considerable intra- and inter-annual variability due to changes in the amount of MC produced relative to cyanobacterial biomass. To detect pigments by satellite, three classes of algorithms (analytic, semi-analytic, and derivative) have been used. Analytical and semi-analytical algorithms are more sensitive but less robust than derivatives because they depend on accurate atmospheric correction; as a result derivatives are more commonly used. Derivatives can estimate Chl -a concentration, and research suggests they can detect and possibly quantify PC. Derivative algorithms, however, need to be standardized in order to evaluate the reproducibility of parameterizations between lakes. A strategy for producing useful estimates of microcystins from cyanobacterial biomass is described, provided cyanotoxin variability is addressed.

Harmful Algae↗

USGS2024

Grand challenges in anticipating and responding to critical materials supply risks

Critical materials are resources that are vulnerable to supply disruptions, where those disruptions can have significant adverse impacts on society. In the coming years, materials supply risks associated with the energy transition and geopolitics are likely to intensify and new risks are expected to emerge. This perspective identifies three “Grand Challenges” that represent frontier areas for critical materials research and highlights some promising new directions for each area: (1) extending visibility downstream to value-added materials beyond elemental forms; (2) quantifying the risks associated with market dynamics; and (3) developing tools to inform policy interventions. Emerging digital capabilities have the potential to play a significant role addressing long-standing limitations in data quality and access to unlock progress on these challenges. Progress in these areas can equip decision-makers across industry, government, and finance with tools to understand the complexity and uncertainty introduced by these real-world challenges.

Joule↗

USGS2020

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at regional and national scale: State of the art and future challenges

Seismic hazard modelling is a multi-disciplinary science that aims to forecast earthquake occurrence and its resultant ground shaking. Such models consist of a probabilistic framework that quantifies uncertainty across a complex system; typically, this includes at least two model components developed from Earth science: seismic-source and ground-motion models. Although there is no scientific prescription for the forecast length, the most common probabilistic seismic hazard analyses consider forecasting windows of 30 to 50 years, which are typically an engineering demand for building code purposes. These types of analyses are the topic of this review paper. Although the core methods and assumptions of seismic hazard modelling have largely remained unchanged for more than 50 years, we review the most recent initiatives which face the difficult task of meeting both the increasingly sophisticated demands of society and keeping pace with advances in scientific understanding. A need for more accurate and spatially precise hazard forecasting must be balanced with increased quantification of uncertainty and new challenges such as moving from time-independent hazard to forecasts that are time-dependent and specific to the time-period of interest. Meeting these challenges requires the development of science-driven models which integrate all information available, the adoption of proper mathematical frameworks to quantify the different types of uncertainties in the hazard model, and the development of a proper testing phase of the model to quantify its consistency and skill. We review the state-of-the-art of the national seismic hazard modeling, and how the most innovative approaches try to address future challenges.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

USGS2024

Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change

Climate change is an existential threat to the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of the coastal zone and impacts will be complex and widespread. Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would sustain California’s coastal ecosystems and communities. In this perspective, we highlight the main threat to coastal sustainability: the compound effects of episodic events amplified with ongoing climate change, which will present unprecedented challenges to the state. We present two key challenges for California’s sustainability in the coastal zone: 1) accelerating sea-level rise combined with storm impacts, and 2) continued warming of the oceans and marine heatwaves. Cascading effects from these types of compounding events will occur within the context of an already stressed system that has experienced extensive alterations due to intensive development, resource extraction and harvesting, spatial containment, and other human use pressures. There are critical components that could be used to address these immediate concerns, including comanagement strategies that include diverse groups and organizations, strategic planning integrated across large areas, rapid implementation of solutions, and a cohesive and policy relevant research agenda for the California coast. Much of this has been started in the state, but the scale could be increased, and timelines accelerated. The ideas and information presented here are intended to help expand discussions to sharpen the focus on how to encourage sustainability of California’s iconic coastal region.

California↗

USGS2010

Hydrological connectivity for riverine fish: measurement challenges and research opportunities

In this review, we first summarize how hydrologic connectivity has been studied for riverine fish capable of moving long distances, and then identify research opportunities that have clear conservation significance. Migratory species, such as anadromous salmonids, are good model organisms for understanding ecological connectivity in rivers because the spatial scale over which movements occur among freshwater habitats is large enough to be easily observed with available techniques; they are often economically or culturally valuable with habitats that can be easily fragmented by human activities; and they integrate landscape conditions from multiple surrounding catchment(s) with in‐river conditions. Studies have focussed on three themes: (i) relatively stable connections (connections controlled by processes that act over broad spatio‐temporal scales >1000 km 2 and >100 years); (ii) dynamic connections (connections controlled by processes acting over fine to moderate spatio‐temporal scales ∼1–1000 km 2 and <1–100 years); and (iii) anthropogenic influences on hydrologic connectivity, including actions that disrupt or enhance natural connections experienced by fish. We outline eight challenges to understanding the role of connectivity in riverine fish ecology, organized under three foci: (i) addressing the constraints of river structure; (ii) embracing temporal complexity in hydrologic connectivity; and (iii) managing connectivity for riverine fishes. Challenges include the spatial structure of stream networks, the force and direction of flow, scale‐dependence of connectivity, shifting boundaries, complexity of behaviour and life histories and quantifying anthropogenic influence on connectivity and aligning management goals. As we discuss each challenge, we summarize relevant approaches in the literature and provide additional suggestions for improving research and management of connectivity for riverine fishes. Specifically, we suggest that rapid advances are possible in the following arenas: (i) incorporating network structure and river discharge into analyses; (ii) increasing explicit consideration of temporal complexity and fish behaviour in the scope of analyses; and (iii) parsing degrees of human and natural influences on connectivity and defining acceptable alterations. Multiscale analyses are most likely to identify dominant patterns of connections and disconnections, and the appropriate scale at which to focus conservation activities.

Freshwater Biology↗

USGS2022

Perspectives on challenges and opportunities at the restoration-policy interface in the U.S.A.

As we advance into the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration, understanding the relationship between science, management, and policy is increasingly important given the paucity of research evaluating the ability of existing policy to address contemporary environmental challenges. Despite their inherent interdependence, restoration ecology as a scientific discipline, ecological restoration as a practice, and the policies driving restoration efforts do not always represent a unified force. Accenting the policies and practices within the United States, we present our perspective on challenges associated with this disunion, including those linked to social dimensions of restoration and limitations associated with existing policy. We provide a review of existing federal policy in the United States and synthesize suggestions that have emerged in the literature to fortify connections between restoration science and policy. We also describe social challenges to meeting restoration goals, including barriers surrounding power dynamics, trust, and communication, as well as divergent incentives, perspectives, and values. We propose potential solutions that exist in transdisciplinary collaboration and knowledge sharing, and evidence-based, balanced decision-making that equally considers varying perspectives. With the understanding that current conservation practices are not enough to mitigate environmental degradation, we focus on streamlining problem-solving strategies to support restoration and face the widespread ecological issues of today.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2013

An opportunity and an imperative: Chapter 11 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

Along the nearly 3,200 kilometers (almost 2,000 miles) of the United States–Mexican border, we are witnessing the expression of the challenges of the 21st century. The Borderlands have become a microcosm for the entire United States and Mexico; the issues faced in that region are felt throughout both nations—water availability and quality, ecosystem health, natural resource needs, safety from natural hazards, and human socioeconomic well-being. If these issues were not challenging enough, we now recognize that the difficulties of addressing them are exacerbated by the onset of climate change, and as we come to better understand the complexities of the components of these challenge themes, we discover that each part is inextricably intertwined with other overarching issues. Further, because we are a creative and progressive society, we all seek to understand and appreciate the natural environments associated with the Borderlands while at the same time benefitting from the region’s many social and economic values. It is little wonder that we as a society find it increasingly difficult to ask the right questions, much less find suitable answers to the questions we do ask. For the many scientists who have worked in the Borderlands and contributed to the preceding chapters, this circular is a way to describe to the two nations of the region the capabilities the U.S. Geological Survey can provide to assist in that quest for knowledge and understanding in preparation for the future.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗

USGS2018

Integrating adaptive management and ecosystem services concepts to improve natural resource management: Challenges and opportunities

Executive Summary—Overview Natural resource managers must make decisions that affect broad-scale ecosystem processes involving large spatial areas, complex biophysical interactions, numerous competing stakeholder interests, and highly uncertain outcomes. Natural and social science information and analyses are widely recognized as important for informing effective management. Chief among the systematic approaches for improving the integration of science into natural resource management are two emergent science concepts, adaptive management and ecosystem services. Adaptive management (also referred to as “adaptive decision making”) is a deliberate process of learning by doing that focuses on reducing uncertainties about management outcomes and system responses to improve management over time. Ecosystem services is a conceptual framework that refers to the attributes and outputs of ecosystems (and their components and functions) that have value for humans. This report explores how ecosystem services can be moved from concept into practice through connection to a decision framework—adaptive management—that accounts for inherent uncertainties. Simultaneously, the report examines the value of incorporating ecosystem services framing and concepts into adaptive management efforts. Adaptive management and ecosystem services analyses have not typically been used jointly in decision making. However, as frameworks, they have a natural—but to date underexplored—affinity. Both are policy and decision oriented in that they attempt to represent the consequences of resource management choices on outcomes of interest to stakeholders. Both adaptive management and ecosystem services analysis take an empirical approach to the analysis of ecological systems. This systems orientation is a byproduct of the fact that natural resource actions affect ecosystems—and corresponding societal outcomes—often across large geographic scales. Moreover, because both frameworks focus on resource systems, both must confront the analytical challenges of systems modeling—in terms of complexity, dynamics, and uncertainty. Given this affinity, the integration of ecosystem services analysis and adaptive management poses few conceptual hurdles. In this report, we synthesize discussions from two workshops that considered ways in which adaptive management approaches and ecosystem service concepts may be complementary, such that integrating them into a common framework may lead to improved natural resource management outcomes. Although the literature on adaptive management and ecosystem services is vast and growing, the report focuses specifically on the integration of these two concepts rather than aiming to provide new definitions or an indepth review or primer of the concepts individually. Key issues considered include the bidirectional links between adaptive decision making and ecosystem services, as well as the potential benefits and inevitable challenges arising in the development and use of an integrated framework. Specifically, the workshops addressed the following questions: How can application of ecosystem service analysis within an adaptive decision process improve the outcomes of management and advance understanding of ecosystem service identification, production, and valuation? How can these concepts be integrated in concept and practice? What are the constraints and challenges to integrating adaptive management and ecosystem services? And, should the integration of these concepts be moved forward to wider application—and if so, how?

Circular↗

USGS2012

Development of computational fluid dynamics--habitat suitability (CFD-HSI) models to identify potential passage--Challenge zones for migratory fishes in the Penobscot River

A two-dimensional computational fluid dynamics-habitat suitability (CFD–HSI) model was developed to identify potential zones of shallow depth and high water velocity that may present passage challenges for five anadromous fish species in the Penobscot River, Maine, upstream from two existing dams and as a result of the proposed future removal of the dams. Potential depth-challenge zones were predicted for larger species at the lowest flow modeled in the dam-removal scenario. Increasing flows under both scenarios increased the number and size of potential velocity-challenge zones, especially for smaller species. This application of the two-dimensional CFD–HSI model demonstrated its capabilities to estimate the potential effects of flow and hydraulic alteration on the passage of migratory fish.

Maine↗

USGS2020

Meeting the challenge: U.S. Geological Survey North Atlantic and Appalachian Region fiscal year 2020 in review

The utilization, preservation, and conservation of the Nation’s resources requires well-informed management decisions. The North Atlantic and Appalachian Region (NAAR) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) supports science-based decision making for Federal, State, and local policymakers to meet the challenges of today and into the future. The science centers in the NAAR have well-deserved reputations as world leaders in delivering unbiased science. We help protect the lives and property of our families, friends, neighbors, and the Nation by providing the data and scientific interpretation that decision makers need to make informed choices on a myriad of topics. Many of our jobs include inherent risk. When others are moving themselves and their families to higher ground during storms, NAAR employees can be found heading toward high water to ensure that accurate streamflow and storm-tide data continue to be collected and delivered to the public and first responders. In March 2020, the world changed, and the NAAR staff adapted to it. Despite the challenges, the NAAR has had an incredibly productive year. I am not just citing publications (with our labs and field offices closed in the spring, centers increased annual publications by 10 to 40 percent compared with 2019) or partnerships (new science initiatives and partnerships are up significantly as well). Leaders at the center level created the right environments for their teams to be safe but still meet and exceed their program goals. Our vast data collection networks were maintained and enhanced. Our laboratories met holding times and quality-control objectives. When folks asked for help, our staff provided. Some solutions were not perfect at first, but they just kept trying. What started as a short-term inconvenience may now have become the new normal, but in quickly adapting, the NAAR staff showed dedication and wisdom, made the region a little safer, and just might change the world. This general information product highlights just a few of the many accomplishments of the NAAR staff during these challenging times and offers a taste of all the great work being done by the USGS community.

Connecticut, Delaware, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, ↗

USGS2013

Population vulnerability and evacuation challenges in California for the SAFRR tsunami scenario

The SAFRR tsunami scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical yet plausible tsunami associated with a magnitude 9.1 megathrust earthquake east of the Alaska Peninsula. This report summarizes community variations in population vulnerability and potential evacuation challenges to the tsunami. The most significant public-health concern for California coastal communities during a distant-source tsunami is the ability to evacuate people out of potential inundation zones. Fatalities from the SAFRR tsunami scenario could be low if emergency managers can implement an effective evacuation in the time between tsunami generation and arrival, as well as keep people from entering tsunami-prone areas until all-clear messages can be delivered. This will be challenging given the estimated 91,956 residents, 81,277 employees, as well as numerous public venues, dependent-population facilities, community-support businesses, and high-volume beaches that are in the 79 incorporated communities and 17 counties that have land in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone. Although all coastal communities face some level of threat from this scenario, the highest concentrations of people in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone are in Long Beach, San Diego, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, and San Francisco. Communities also vary in the prevalent categories of populations that are in scenario tsunami-inundation zones, such as residents in Long Beach, employees in San Francisco, tourists at public venues in Santa Cruz, and beach or park visitors in unincorporated Los Angeles County. Certain communities have higher percentages of groups that may need targeted outreach and preparedness training, such as renters, the very young and very old, and individuals with limited English-language skills or no English-language skills at all. Sustained education and targeted evacuation messaging is also important at several high-occupancy public venues in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone (for example, city and county beaches, State or national parks, and amusement parks). Evacuations will be challenging, particularly for certain dependent-care populations, such as patients at hospitals and children at schools and daycare centers. We estimate that approximately 8,678 of the 91,956 residents in the scenario inundation zone are likely to need publicly provided shelters in the short term. Information presented in this report could be used to support emergency managers in their efforts to identify where additional preparedness and outreach activities may be needed to manage risks associated with California tsunamis.

California↗