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USGS2012

Distributional changes of American martens and fishers in eastern North America, 1699-2001: Chapter 4

Contractions in the geographic distributions of the American marten ( Martes americana) and fi sher ( M. pennanti) in eastern North America south of the St. Lawrence River between Colonial times (ca. 1650–1800) and the fi sher’s recent range expansion (ca. 1930–present) are well documented, but causal factors in these range contractions have only partially been studied. Traditional explanations for range contractions by both species are forest clearing and unregulated trapping; little consideration has been given to alternative explanations. It has been hypothesized that deep snow limits the distribution of fi shers, and that high fi sher populations limit the distribution of martens. I assessed the potential contributions of these factors to observed range contractions for these species by evaluating expected patterns of change in their historical distributions since Colonial times. Using published data on the distribution of martens and fi shers in eastern North America, including early and contemporary fur-harvest records ( n = 60,702), I found that broad-scale changes in their geographic distributions in eastern North America were consistent with 3 of those expectations, and partially so with a 4th. I recognize that retrospective analyses cannot establish the relative importance of land clearing, unregulated trapping, and changing climatic conditions on observed range contractions; nevertheless, when historical data from eastern North America are viewed in the context of long-term climate warming and the results of recent ecological studies, they suggest that traditional arguments may only partially explain historical range contractions for both species. This study further suggests that under a warming climate, northern range boundaries for the fi sher will expand, and southern range boundaries for the American marten will continue to contract.

Book chapter↗

USGS2013

Seismic structure of the crust and uppermost mantle of South America and surrounding oceanic basins

We present a new set of contour maps of the seismic structure of South America and the surrounding ocean basins. These maps include new data, helping to constrain crustal thickness, whole-crustal average P-wave and S-wave velocity, and the seismic velocity of the uppermost mantle ( P n and S n ). We find that: (1) The weighted average thickness of the crust under South America is 38.17 km (standard deviation, s.d. ±8.7 km), which is ∼1 km thinner than the global average of 39.2 km (s.d. ±8.5 km) for continental crust. (2) Histograms of whole-crustal P-wave velocities for the South American crust are bi-modal, with the lower peak occurring for crust that appears to be missing a high-velocity (6.9–7.3 km/s) lower crustal layer. (3) The average P-wave velocity of the crystalline crust ( P cc ) is 6.47 km/s (s.d. ±0.25 km/s). This is essentially identical to the global average of 6.45 km/s. (4) The average P n velocity beneath South America is 8.00 km/s (s.d. ±0.23 km/s), slightly lower than the global average of 8.07 km/s. (5) A region across northern Chile and northeast Argentina has anomalously low P- and S-wave velocities in the crust. Geographically, this corresponds to the shallowly-subducted portion of the Nazca plate (the Pampean flat slab first described by Isacks et al., 1968), which is also a region of crustal extension. (6) The thick crust of the Brazilian craton appears to extend into Venezuela and Colombia. (7) The crust in the Amazon basin and along the western edge of the Brazilian craton may be thinned by extension. (8) The average crustal P-wave velocity under the eastern Pacific seafloor is higher than under the western Atlantic seafloor, most likely due to the thicker sediment layer on the older Atlantic seafloor.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2002

Seismic structure of the crust and uppermost mantle of North America and adjacent oceanic basins: A synthesis

We present a new set of contour maps of the seismic structure of North America and the surrounding ocean basins. These maps include the crustal thickness, whole-crustal average P -wave and S -wave velocity, and seismic velocity of the uppermost mantle, that is, Pn and Sn . We found the following: (1) The average thickness of the crust under North America is 36.7 km (standard deviation [s.d.] ±8.4 km), which is 2.5 km thinner than the world average of 39.2 km (s.d. ± 8.5) for continental crust; (2) Histograms of whole-crustal P - and S -wave velocities for the North American crust are bimodal, with the lower peak occurring for crust without a high-velocity (6.9–7.3 km/sec) lower crustal layer; (3) Regions with anomalously high average crustal P -wave velocities correlate with Precambrian and Paleozoic orogens; low average crustal velocities are correlated with modern extensional regimes; (4) The average Pn velocity beneath North America is 8.03 km/sec (s.d. ± 0.19 km/sec); (5) the well-known thin crust beneath the western United States extends into north-west Canada; (6) the average P -wave velocity of layer 3 of oceanic crust is 6.61 km/sec (s.d. ± 0.47 km/sec). However, the average crustal P -wave velocity under the eastern Pacific seafloor is higher than the western Atlantic seafloor due to the thicker sediment layer on the older Atlantic seafloor.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2011

Monitoring the Earthquake source process in North America

With the implementation of the USGS National Earthquake Information Center Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response system (PAGER), rapid determination of earthquake moment magnitude is essential, especially for earthquakes that are felt within the contiguous United States. We report an implementation of moment tensor processing for application to broad, seismically active areas of North America. This effort focuses on the selection of regional crustal velocity models, codification of data quality tests, and the development of procedures for rapid computation of the seismic moment tensor. We systematically apply these techniques to earthquakes with reported magnitude greater than 3.5 in continental North America that are not associated with a tectonic plate boundary. Using the 0.02-0.10 Hz passband, we can usually determine, with few exceptions, moment tensor solutions for earthquakes with M w as small as 3.7. The threshold is significantly influenced by the density of stations, the location of the earthquake relative to the seismic stations and, of course, the signal-to-noise ratio. With the existing permanent broadband stations in North America operated for rapid earthquake response, the seismic moment tensor of most earthquakes that are M w 4 or larger can be routinely computed. As expected the nonuniform spatial pattern of these solutions reflects the seismicity pattern. However, the orientation of the direction of maximum compressive stress and the predominant style of faulting is spatially coherent across large regions of the continent.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2017

Contributions of wildland fire to terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in North America from 1990 to 2012

Burn area and the frequency of extreme fire events have been increasing during recent decades in North America, and this trend is expected to continue over the 21st century. While many aspects of the North American carbon budget have been intensively studied, the net contribution of fire disturbance to the overall net carbon flux at the continental scale remains uncertain. Based on national scale, spatially explicit and long-term fire data, along with the improved model parameterization in a process-based ecosystem model, we simulated the impact of fire disturbance on both direct carbon emissions and net terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance in North America. Fire-caused direct carbon emissions were 106.55 ± 15.98 Tg C/yr during 1990–2012; however, the net ecosystem carbon balance associated with fire was −26.09 ± 5.22 Tg C/yr, indicating that most of the emitted carbon was resequestered by the terrestrial ecosystem. Direct carbon emissions showed an increase in Alaska and Canada during 1990–2012 as compared to prior periods due to more extreme fire events, resulting in a large carbon source from these two regions. Among biomes, the largest carbon source was found to be from the boreal forest, primarily due to large reductions in soil organic matter during, and with slower recovery after, fire events. The interactions between fire and environmental factors reduced the fire-caused ecosystem carbon source. Fire disturbance only caused a weak carbon source as compared to the best estimate terrestrial carbon sink in North America owing to the long-term legacy effects of historical burn area coupled with fast ecosystem recovery during 1990–2012.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2017

Vectors, hosts, and control measures for Zika virus in the Americas

We examine Zika virus (ZIKV) from an ecological perspective and with a focus on the Americas. We assess (1) the role of wildlife in ZIKV disease ecology, (2) how mosquito behavior and biology influence disease dynamics, and (3) how nontarget species and ecosystems may be impacted by vector control programs. Our review suggests that free-ranging, non-human primates may be involved in ZIKV transmission in the Old World; however, other wildlife species likely play a limited role in maintaining or transmitting ZIKV. In the Americas, a zoonotic cycle has not yet been definitively established. Understanding behaviors and habitat tolerances of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus , two ZIKV competent vectors in the Americas, will allow more accurate modeling of disease spread and facilitate targeted and effective control efforts. Vector control efforts may have direct and indirect impacts to wildlife, particularly invertebrate feeding species; however, strategies could be implemented to limit detrimental ecological effects.

EcoHealth↗

USGS2023

Contemporary distribution of non-native Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in South America

Chinook salmon represent one of the most successful salmonid introductions in South America, and today multiple naturalized populations exist across Patagonia. Here, we present an updated regional distribution of Chinook salmon that includes new records of occurrences collected between 2006 and 2022. We found a significant range expansion in terms of occurrences for adult (18 new basins; 2,854,108 km 2 ) and adult spawners or juvenile (12 new basins; 53,262 km 2 ) salmon extending both to the north and south of the previously known colonized range in South America. This range expansion (38% of the area considering only occurrences indicating reproduction via adult spawners or juvenile salmon) included major basins draining to both the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean coasts of the continent. Adult Chinook salmon are currently reported from 48 large basins (33.62°–54.97° S) covering a total drainage area of 3,047,197 km 2 . The observed expansion we document here has been likely driven by the dispersal of straying adults from historically naturalized populations. Our findings provide evidence that the invasion of Chinook salmon in South America is ongoing and updated information relevant to the management of this invasive and socio-ecologically important fish.

Biological Invasions↗

USGS2023

The changing dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: Next steps for management & science in North America

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 was introduced in North America in late 2021 through trans-Atlantic pathways via migratory birds. These introductions have resulted in an unprecedented epizootic, a widespread disease event in animals, heavily affecting poultry, wild birds, and recently mammals. The North American incursions occurred during the largest epidemic season (2021–2022) in Europe where H5N1 may now be endemic (i.e., continuously present). The continuing outbreak includes expansion into Mexico, Central and South America beginning in late 2022. Here, we provide an overview of the Eurasian origin H5N1 introduction to the Americas, including a significant shift in virus dynamics and severe disease in wild birds. Then, to investigate the global changes in confirmed detections in wild birds and poultry across time and geographic regions, we analyzed FAO's EMPRES-i + database. To examine the 2021 introduction and spread in North American wild birds and poultry, we collated publicly available data across USA and Canadian federal sources. Based on our assessment, the unique magnitude of the North American H5N1 spread indicates the need for effective decision framing to prioritize management needs and scientific inquiry, particularly for species at risk and interface areas for wildlife, poultry, and humans. We illustrate the rapidly occurring and likely increasing detrimental effects that this One Health issue has on wildlife, agriculture, and potentially human health, and we offer a reframing of HPAIV disease response towards a decision analytical context to guide scientific prioritization as a potentially valuable change in focus.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2011

Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration

Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt postglacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2016

Avian mercury exposure and toxicological risk across western North America: A synthesis

Methylmercury contamination of the environment is an important issue globally, and birds are useful bioindicators for mercury monitoring programs. The available data on mercury contamination of birds in western North America were synthesized. Original data from multiple databases were obtained and a literature review was conducted to obtain additional mercury concentrations. In total, 29219 original bird mercury concentrations from 225 species were compiled, and an additional 1712 mean mercury concentrations, representing 19998 individuals and 176 species, from 200 publications were obtained. To make mercury data comparable across bird tissues, published equations of tissue mercury correlations were used to convert all mercury concentrations into blood-equivalent mercury concentrations. Blood-equivalent mercury concentrations differed among species, foraging guilds, habitat types, locations, and ecoregions. Piscivores and carnivores exhibited the greatest mercury concentrations, whereas herbivores and granivores exhibited the lowest mercury concentrations. Bird mercury concentrations were greatest in ocean and salt marsh habitats and lowest in terrestrial habitats. Bird mercury concentrations were above toxicity benchmarks in many areas throughout western North America, and multiple hotspots were identified. Additionally, published toxicity benchmarks established in multiple tissues were summarized and translated into a common blood-equivalent mercury concentration. Overall, 66% of birds sampled in western North American exceeded a blood-equivalent mercury concentration of 0.2 μg/g wet weight (ww; above background levels), which is the lowest-observed effect level, 28% exceeded 1.0 μg/g ww (moderate risk), 8% exceeded 3.0 μg/g ww (high risk), and 4% exceeded 4.0 μg/g ww (severe risk). Mercury monitoring programs should sample bird tissues, such as adult blood and eggs, that are most-easily translated into tissues with well-developed toxicity benchmarks and that are directly relevant to bird reproduction. Results indicate that mercury contamination of birds is prevalent in many areas throughout western North America, and large-scale ecological attributes are important factors influencing bird mercury concentrations.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2020

Biological nitrogen fixation across major biomes in Latin America: Patterns and global change effects

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) supports terrestrial primary productivity and plays key roles in mediating human-induced changes in global nitrogen (N) and carbon cycling. However, there are still critical uncertainties in our understanding of the amount of BNF occurring across terrestrial ecosystems, and of how terrestrial BNF will respond to global change. We synthesized BNF data from Latin America, a region reported to sustain some of the highest BNF rates on Earth, but that is underrepresented in previous data syntheses. We used meta-analysis and modeling approaches to estimate BNF rates across Latin America's major biomes and to evaluate the potential effects of increased N deposition and land-use change on these rates. Unmanaged tropical and subtropical moist forests sustained observed and predicted total BNF rates of 10 ± 1 and 14 ± 1 kg N ha −1 y −1 , respectively, supporting the hypothesis that these forests sustain lower BNF rates than previously thought. Free-living BNF accounted for two-thirds of the total BNF in these forests. Despite an average 30% reduction of free-living BNF in response to experimental N-addition, our results suggest free-living BNF rate responses to current and projected N deposition across tropical and subtropical moist forests are small. In contrast, the conversion of unmanaged ecosystems to crop and pasture lands increased BNF rates across all terrestrial biomes, mostly in savannas, grasslands, and dry forests, increasing BNF rates 2-fold. The information obtained here provides a more comprehensive understanding of BNF patterns for Latin America.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2004

Seismic hazard maps of Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America

The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard and/or economic constraints. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. We have produced a suite of seismic hazard estimates for Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America. One of the preliminary maps in this suite served as the basis for the Caribbean and Central and South America portion of the Global Seismic Hazard Map (GSHM) published in 1999, which depicted peak ground acceleration (pga) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for rock sites. Herein we present maps depicting pga and 0.2 and 1.0 s spectral accelerations (SA) with 50%, 10%, and 2% chances of exceedance in 50 years for rock sites. The seismicity catalog used in the generation of these maps adds 3 more years of data to those used to calculate the GSH Map. Different attenuation functions (consistent with those used to calculate the U.S. and Canadian maps) were used as well. These nine maps are designed to assist in global risk mitigation by providing a general seismic hazard framework and serving as a resource for any national or regional agency to help focus further detailed studies required for regional/local needs. The largest seismic hazard values in Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes. High hazard values occur in areas where shallow-to-intermediate seismicity occurs frequently. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tectonophysics↗

USGS2005

Implications of volcanism in coastal California for the Neogene deformation history of western North America

The geologic record of coastal California includes evidence of numerous volcanic centers younger than 30 Ma that do not appear to have erupted in an arc setting. By correlating these volcanic centers with specific slab windows predicted from analysis of magnetic anomalies on the Pacific plate, we add new constraints to tectonic reconstructions since 30 Ma. Our correlations, such as erupting the Morro Rock–Islay Hill complex south of the Pioneer fracture zone and the Iversen Basalt south of the Mendocino fracture zone, require larger displacements within western North America than advocated by most previous authors. Specifically, we infer at least 315 km of motion between the Sierra Nevada and rigid North America at an azimuth of about N60°W and at least 515 km between Baja California and rigid North America in a similar direction. A consequence of inferring a large displacement of Baja California is that the Pacific–North American plate boundary must have developed most of its current form prior to 10 Ma. We interpret a slab window developing between Cocos and Monterey plates after 19 Ma that reconstructs under nearly all of the southern California volcanic centers dated at 18–14 Ma. Most of the sedimentary basins associated with volcanic rocks show brief periods of rapid subsidence synchronous with volcanism, followed by slow subsidence of variable but often extended duration, consistent with rapid extension of cold lithosphere over recently introduced hot asthenosphere.

California↗

USGS1996

Shear wave velocity structure in North America from large-scale waveform inversions of surface waves

A two-step nonlinear and linear inversion is carried out to map the lateral heterogeneity beneath North America using surface wave data. The lateral resolution for most areas of the model is of the order of several hundred kilometers. The most obvious feature in the tomographic images is the rapid transition between low velocities in the tectonically active region west of the Rocky Mountains and high velocities in the stable central and eastern shield of North America. The model also reveals smaller-scale heterogeneous velocity structures. A high-velocity anomaly is imaged beneath the state of Washington that could be explained as the subducting Juan de Fuca plate beneath the Cascades. A large low-velocity structure extends along the coast from the Mendocino to the Rivera triple junction and to the continental interior across the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. Its shape changes notably with depth. This anomaly largely coincides with the part of the margin where no lithosphere is consumed since the subduction has been replaced by a transform fault. Evidence for a discontinuous subduction of the Cocos plate along the Middle American Trench is found. In central Mexico a transition is visible from low velocities across the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) to high velocities beneath the Yucatan Peninsula. Two elongated low-velocity anomalies beneath the Yellowstone Plateau and the eastern Snake River Plain volcanic system and beneath central Mexico and the TMVB seem to be associated with magmatism and partial melting. Another low-velocity feature is seen at depths of approximately 200 km beneath Florida and the Atlantic Coastal Plain. The inversion technique used is based on a linear surface wave scattering theory, which gives tomographic images of the relative phase velocity perturbations in four period bands ranging from 40 to 150 s. In order to find a smooth reference model a nonlinear inversion based on ray theory is first performed. After correcting for the crustal thickness the phase velocity perturbations obtained from the subsequent linear waveform inversion for the different period bands are converted to a three-layer model of S velocity perturbations (layer 1, 25–100 km; layer 2, 100–200 km; layer 3, 200–300 km). We have applied this method on 275 high-quality Rayleigh waves recorded by a variety of instruments in North America (IRIS/USGS, IRIS/IDA, TERRAscope, RSTN). Sensitivity tests indicate that the lateral resolution is especially good in the densely sampled western continental United States, Mexico, and the Gulf of Mexico.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2007

The kelp highway hypothesis: Marine ecology, the coastal migration theory, and the peopling of the Americas

In this article, a collaborative effort between archaeologists and marine ecologists, we discuss the role kelp forest ecosystems may have played in facilitating the movement of maritime peoples from Asia to the Americas near the end of the Pleistocene. Growing in cool nearshore waters along rocky coastlines, kelp forests offer some of the most productive habitats on earth, with high primary productivity, magnified secondary productivity, and three-dimensional habitat supporting a diverse array of marine organisms. Today, extensive kelp forests are found around the North Pacific from Japan to Baja California. After a break in the tropics—where nearshore mangrove forests and coral reefs are highly productive—kelp forests are also found along the Andean Coast of South America. These Pacific Rim kelp forests support or shelter a wealth of shellfish, fish, marine mammals, seabirds, and seaweeds, resources heavily used historically by coastal peoples. By about 16,000 years ago, the North Pacific Coast offered a linear migration route, essentially unobstructed and entirely at sea level, from northeast Asia into the Americas. Recent reconstructions suggest that rising sea levels early in the postglacial created a highly convoluted and island-rich coast along Beringia's southern shore, conditions highly favorable to maritime hunter-gatherers. Along with the terrestrial resources available in adjacent landscapes, kelp forests and other nearshore habitats sheltered similar suites of food resources that required minimal adaptive adjustments for migrating coastal peoples. With reduced wave energy, holdfasts for boats, and productive fishing, these linear kelp forest ecosystems may have provided a kind of “kelp highway” for early maritime peoples colonizing the New World.

Journal of Island and Coastal Archaeology↗

USGS1996

Zebra mussel infestation of unionid bivalves (Unionidae) in North America

In 1989, zebra mussels received national attention in North America when they reached densities exceeding 750,000/m2 in a water withdrawal facility along the shore of western Lake Erie of the Laurentian Great Lakes. Although water withdrawal problems caused by zebra mussels have been of immediate concern, ecological impacts attributed to mussels are likely to be the more important long-term issue for surface waters in North America. To date, the epizoic colonization (i.e., infestation) of unionid bivalve mollusks by zebra mussels has caused the most direct and severe ecological impact. Infestation of and resulting impacts caused by zebra mussels on unionids in the Great Lakes began in 1988. By 1990, mortality of unionids was occurring at some locations; by 1991, extant populations of unionids in western Lake Erie were nearly extirpated; by 1992, unionid populations in the southern half of Lake St. Clair were extirpated; by 1993, unionids in widely separated geographic areas of the Great Lakes and the Mississippi River showed high mortality due to mussel infestation. All infested unionid species in the Great Lakes (23) have become infested and exhibited mortality within two to four years after heavy infestation began. Data indicate that mean zebra mussel densities >5,000–6,000/m 2 and infestation intensities >100-200/unionid in the presence of heavy zebra mussel recruitment results in near total mortality of unionids. At present, all unionid species in rivers, streams, and akes that sympatrically occur with zebra mussels have been infested and, in many locations, negatively impacted by zebra mussels. We do not know the potential consequences of infestation on the 297 unionid species found in North America, but believe zebra mussels pose an immediate threat to the abundance and diversity of unionids.

American Zoologist↗

USGS2023

Springing forward: Migrating songbirds catch up with the start of spring in North America

In temperate regions, the annual pattern of spring onset can be envisioned as a ‘green wave’ of emerging vegetation that moves across continents from low to high latitudes, signifying increasing food availability for consumers. Many herbivorous migrants ‘surf’ such resource waves, timing their movements to exploit peak vegetation resources in early spring. Although less well studied at the individual level, secondary consumers such as insectivorous songbirds can track vegetation phenology during migration as well. We hypothesized that four species of ground-foraging songbirds in eastern North America—two warblers and two thrushes—time their spring migrations to coincide with later phases of vegetation phenology, corresponding to increased arthropod prey, and predicted they would match their migration rate to the green wave but trail behind it rather than surfing its leading edge. We further hypothesized that the rate at which spring onset progresses across the continent influences bird migration rates, such that individuals adjust migration timing within North America to phenological conditions they experience en route . To test our hypotheses, we used a continent-wide automated radio telemetry network to track individual songbirds on spring migration between the U.S. Gulf Coast region and northern locations closer to their breeding grounds. We measured vegetation phenology using two metrics of spring onset, the spring index first leaf date and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), then calculated the rate and timing of spring onset relative to bird detections. All individuals arrived in the southeastern United States well after local spring onset. Counter to our expectations, we found that songbirds exhibited a ‘catching up’ pattern: Individuals migrated faster than the green wave of spring onset, effectively closing in on the start of spring as they approached breeding areas. While surfing of resource waves is a well-documented migration strategy for herbivorous waterfowl and ungulates, individual songbirds in our study migrated faster than the green wave and increasingly caught up to its leading edge en route . Consequently, songbirds experience a range of vegetation phenophases while migrating through North America, suggesting flexibility in their capacity to exploit variable resources in spring.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2019

Temperature thresholds for black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) freeze damage, mortality, and recovery in North America: Refining tipping points for range expansion in a warming climate

Near the tropical‐temperate transition zone, warming winter temperatures are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of freeze‐sensitive tropical organisms. In coastal wetlands of eastern and central North America, freeze‐sensitive woody plants (mangroves) are expected to expand northward into regions currently dominated by freeze‐tolerant herbaceous salt marsh plants. To advance understanding of mangrove range expansion, there is a need to refine temperature thresholds for mangrove freeze damage, mortality, and recovery. We integrated data from 38 sites spread across the mangrove range edge in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of North America, including data from a regional collaborative network — the Mangrove Migration Network. In 2018, an extreme freeze event affected 60% of these sites, with minimum temperatures ranging from 0 to ‐7°C. We used temperature and vegetation data from before and after the freeze to quantify temperature thresholds for leaf damage, mortality, and biomass recovery of the black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) — the most freeze‐tolerant mangrove species in North America. For A. germinans individuals near their northern range limit, our results indicate that temperature thresholds for leaf damage are close to ‐4°C, but temperature thresholds for mortality are closer to ‐7°C. Thresholds are expected to be warmer for more southern A. germinans individuals and for the other two common mangrove species in the region (Laguncularia racemosa and Rhizophora mangle). Regenerative buds allowed A. germinans to resprout and recover quickly from aboveground freeze damage. Hence, biomass recovery levels during the first post‐freeze growing season were 90, 78, 62, and 45% for temperatures of ‐4, ‐5, ‐6, and ‐7°C, respectively. Due to a combination of vigorous resprouting and new recruitment from propagules, we expect full recovery at most sites within 1‐3 years, assuming no further freeze events. Synthesis To improve predictions of tropical range expansion in response to climate change, there is a need to better understand tropical species’ responses to winter temperature extremes. Collectively, our results refine temperature thresholds for A. germinans freeze damage, mortality, and recovery, which can improve predictions of mangrove range expansion and coastal wetland ecological transformations in a warming climate.

Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas↗