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USGS2026

SlideDetect: Spatio-temporal landslide detection using a three-dimensional convolutional neural network

Landslides pose a serious and ongoing threat to both human lives and infrastructure worldwide; therefore, it is of interest to predict where and when landslides are likely to occur. Advances in machine learning techniques have spurred numerous studies aimed at estimating relative landslide propensity, but are limited to spatial (as opposed to temporal) prediction due to the sparsity of landslide timing data. We address this data gap by training SlideDetect, a 3-dimensional convolutional neural network (3D CNN), to identify landslides based on their spatial and temporal occurrence within multitemporal image stacks. We use an inventory of landsides triggered by the 2018 Hokkaido earthquake and two years of monthly composite optical imagery spanning this event. The model can identify not only landslide location but also landslide date with an area under the precision-recall curve (PR-AUC) of 0.84. We further present a new standard for presenting PR curve results that explicitly compares model performance at different confidence thresholds, allowing for clearer model evaluation and comparison. Our new approach to constraining landslide timing paired with this more consistent and objective method for evaluating model performance shows considerable promise, and with further application and testing, SlideDetect could enhance the data availability and tools needed to advance landslide hazard and risk assessments.

JGR Machine Learning and Computation↗

USGS2026

Ductile and brittle Rio Grande Rift deformation in Oligocene granite records a two-stage rift history in southern Colorado

The timing and nature of early deformation in the Rio Grande Rift remains poorly constrained. We present evidence for the earliest structural signature of rift extension in the Sangre de Cristo Range, southern Colorado, based on new geologic mapping, structural analysis, rock magnetic data, and thermochronology. These analyses focus on the ~30.0 Ma granite of Chokecherry Canyon, which hosts discrete low-angle mylonitic shear zones and a distributed, gently SW-dipping protomylonitic fabric. Incremental stretching axes, stretching lineations, and Kmax magnetic lineations plunge gently WSW. Quartz microstructures and crystallographic orientations indicate dominantly coaxial strain in the protomylonite and general shear in the discrete shear zones. Quartz c-axis opening-angle thermometry suggests deformation at ~420–540°C. Thermal modeling of ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar K-feldspar data indicates rapid post magmatic cooling below the brittle–plastic transition, supporting shear-zone formation immediately after emplacement. Slow cooling from ~20–13 Ma was followed by renewed rapid cooling at ~13 Ma, interpreted as the onset of extensional exhumation along the Sangre de Cristo Fault System. These results show that extension in the northern Rio Grande Rift was active by ~30 Ma, earlier than previously recognized. We propose a two-stage model for northern Rio Grande Rift evolution: Stage I (30–23 Ma) records ENE–WSW extension localized in low-angle mylonitic shear zones associated with mid-crustal intrusions; Stage II (≤18 Ma) reflects brittle high-angle normal faulting, focused exhumation, and rift narrowing. Stage I magmatism and deformation along the western range front likely established crustal weaknesses that guided later fault development.

Colorado↗

USGS2026

A case study of maximum depositional ages from terrestrial sandstones near the Cretaceous—Paleogene transition, western Williston Basin, USA

We present a new Bayesian method for deriving maximum depositional ages from detrital K-feldspar using total-fusion 40 Ar/ 39 Ar data. Individual analyses weighted by K/Ca ratio, age uncertainty, and percent radiogenic argon prioritize a result to come from accurately measured volcanic sources. Results from this method applied to sandstones from the Hell Creek region of northeastern Montana show that detrital K-feldspar maximum depositional ages align closely with detrital U-Pb zircon ages as well as tephra based chronostratigraphic constraints from both 40 Ar/ 39 Ar and U-Pb data. An age model informed by maximum depositional ages and available tephra data provides an estimate of 1.74 ± 1.04 Ma for the duration of deposition for the Hell Creek Formation. Combined age model and maximum depositional age data suggest ≤ 1.84 Ma of missing time is represented by the Hell Creek and Fox Hills formational disconformity, coinciding with the final regression of the Western Interior seaway.

Montana↗

USGS2026

Key minerals in energy transmission

The electrical grid relies on minerals with unique properties to transform, transmit, and convert electricity. Transmission needs are growing—to support the expansion of data centers and link diverse energy resources into the grid. This expansion will require greater quantities of minerals. Although some minerals are produced in the United States, the United States relies on imports for others. This infographic shows the key minerals that support energy transmission, and how reliant the United States is on imports for these minerals.

General Information Product↗

USGS2026

Morphodynamics of snow barchans at Concordia Station, Antarctica

Barchans are crescent-shaped dunes that form and migrate under unimodal wind regimes in areas of low sediment availability. While sand barchan morphodynamics has been extensively studied, snow barchans remain poorly documented. Here, using hourly time-series images taken near Concordia Station, Antarctica, we measure the sizes (lengths 0.3 m to 13 m, widths 0.4 m to 7.5 m) and migration rates (0.13 m h −1 to 3.5 m h −1 ) of 44 populations of snow barchans during 2017–2022. We compare this dataset with established height–velocity and length-width relationships for sand barchans in both air and water. Our results show that snow barchans follow the same scaling as sand barchans, allowing us to estimate a characteristic sintering (bonding of snow particles) time of about one day. This sintering process limits the size of snow barchans when active, reduces their aspect ratios, and, once wind falls below the transport threshold, explains their preservation over a few years. During wind events, migrating barchans are too small to maintain their shape and orientation, making them highly responsive to fluctuations in wind direction. Thus, studying snow barchans improves understanding of an elementary bedform encountered in multiple environments and also of the surface properties of snow on different timescales, offering insights into snow accumulation and wind-blown snow in ice cores.

Geomorphica↗

USGS2026

Black rails in Baja California

Summarizing records from 1905 to 2025, we document the presence and distribution of the California black rail ( Laterallus jamaicensis coturniculus ) in northwestern México, particularly Baja California and the Colorado River Delta. This subspecies has a restricted distribution in the western U.S. and northwestern México. We found few records over the past century: sparse detections in the early 1900s and an increase in reported records after 2000. Over 120 years, we compiled 35 documented records of California black rail occurrence in Baja California with a minimum reported count of 56 rails. Our call-broadcast survey methods reconfirmed previously occupied sites and documented the species at a previously unreported site. Surveys in the Baja California portion of the Colorado River Delta yielded 20 detections across nine survey events between 2000 and 2022. In April 2003, standardized surveys detected 12 California black rails: 7 in Bahía de San Quintín, 3 in Arroyo San Telmo, and 2 in Arroyo El Rosario. Our recent survey work (2022–2025) recorded maximum monthly counts of 31 detections at Bahía de San Quintín and 15 detections at Estero de Punta Banda, the latter representing a previously undocumented location for the subspecies. These surveys also yielded the first photographic and acoustic documentation of California black rail in México. The contribution of spatial and temporal data provided by citizen science platforms increased our understanding of the subspecies’ distribution. Enforceable protection of this subspecies’ habitat is needed to safeguard its persistence.

Baja California↗

USGS2026

Bathymetric survey and storage capacity of Upper Lake Mary near Flagstaff, Arizona in 2024

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the city of Flagstaff, collected bathymetric, light detection and ranging (lidar), and land-survey data of Upper Lake Mary in Arizona during the months of April and October 2024. The city of Flagstaff uses a combination of groundwater from well fields throughout the Flagstaff area and surface water, mainly from Upper Lake Mary, for its potable water supply. The purpose of the survey is to update previous surveys using new technology and compare the results to previous surveys to determine if there was a decrease in storage capacity that could affect the city’s water supply. The lakebed was mapped in April 2024 using a vessel equipped with a multibeam echosounder (MBES) and mobile lidar scanner with positioning captured using a real-time kinematic global navigation satellite system (RTK GNSS) base and receivers. In October 2024, areas of the reservoir that were too shallow for the boat and shoreline that were not captured by the vessel-based lidar were surveyed on foot using hand-held RTK GNSS receivers. At full pool (spillway elevation of 6,831.82 feet above NAVD 88 [2,082.34 meters (m)], Upper Lake Mary has a storage capacity of 16,449.80 acre-feet (20,290,611.73 cubic meters) and a surface area of 953.57 acres (3,860,926.075 square meters). The reservoir is 5.7 miles (9.7 kilometers) long and varies in width from 326 feet (99.36 m) near the central, narrow portion of the reservoir to 2,613 feet (796.44 m) in the upper portion. Comparisons between this survey and the previous two surveys from the 1950s and 2006 indicate no apparent decrease in reservoir area or storage capacity. Results of the 2024 survey indicate that Upper Lake Mary’s storage capacity increased by 0.9 percent from the 2006 survey and a 1.6 percent increase in surface area from the 2006 survey.

Arizona↗

USGS2026

Family life is critical for migration and survival in a long-lived social bird

Extended parental care is common among birds and particularly well known among long-lived migratory species. Yet, factors influencing the duration of parental care are poorly understood, and empirical evidence for the functional importance of family life for offspring development is scarce. Using unique tracking and genetic data of 55 adult and juvenile migratory Bewick’s swans, among which 18 parent-offspring pairs and 13 sibling pairs, we quantify variation in family bond duration and identify the cause and consequences of their dissolution. Families generally broke up during the second half of the first northward migration of the offspring, when offspring were nearly one year old. Earlier separation occurred on the wintering grounds in response to disturbance ( n = 10 juveniles) and led to delayed migration and, critically, lower survival (40 vs. 86%). Our results provide rare empirical evidence that family bonds, as a pathway for social learning, are not just important, but vital to the migration and survival of young family-living birds.

Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology↗

USGS2026

Ringtail (Bassariscus astutus) survival in southwestern Oregon

The effective conservation and management of small carnivore populations requires understanding species’ life-history traits and identifying important vital rates that drive population trajectories. However, many of these species are rare or elusive and of state or federal conservation concern, and demographic information is often lacking and difficult to obtain. At the northern limit of their range in Oregon, USA, ringtail ( Bassariscus astutus ) occupy mid-elevation forests and are a species of conservation concern because of their limited distribution and suspected low density. We initiated a radio-telemetry study in 2020 to estimate monthly and annual survival of ringtail in southwest Oregon. We monitored 26 ringtail from November 2020 to October 2022 and estimated survival rates using a known-fate framework and Program MARK. Model-averaged monthly survival estimates ranged from lows of 0.963 (SE = 0.022, 95% CI = 0.887–0.988) in spring (Feb–May) of 2021 to highs of 0.980 (SE = 0.018, 95% CI = 0.889–0.997) in summer (Jun–Oct) of 2022. Model-averaged estimates of annual survival were 0.695 (SE = 0.176, 95% CI = 0.310–0.920) during 2020–2021 and 0.728 (SE = 0.168, 95% CI = 0.336–0.934) during 2021–2022. Predation was the leading cause of mortality, but notably, no mortalities could be attributed to avian predation. Survival rates were much higher within forested landscapes in Oregon than for populations in the southwestern United States, which may have implications for regional conservation and management strategies.

Oregon↗

USGS2026

Evaluation of submersible pressure transducers for streamflow monitoring in small streams

Compact streamgages requiring minimal infrastructure and equipped with submersible pressure transducers (PTs) are increasingly used to monitor small streams, yet disparate implementations obscure their accuracy under real-world conditions. This study isolated instrumentation-derived uncertainty in stage monitoring by co-locating various combinations of commercial vented and unvented PTs with seven U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reference streamgages on small streams. Multi-year PT stage records from compact streamgages, collected and corrected following USGS protocols, were compared to concurrent reference observations. Vented PTs demonstrated an average measurement uncertainty of ±0.005 m and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of ±0.2%. Unvented PTs exhibited higher uncertainty, averaging ±0.009 m and ±0.4% MAPE. Although both sensor types had stage errors up to ±0.3 m, 95% of vented PT and unvented PT observations were within 0.01 and 0.02 m of reference stage, respectively. Analysis of additional unvented PTs revealed stage errors of up to ±1.2% when using barometric sensors within 15 km of the in-water sensor. Propagation of stage error to discharge using reference rating models resulted in cumulative discharge MAPEs of ±4.5% for vented and ±5.5% for unvented PTs. These findings highlight PTs as practical alternatives to reference instrumentation when deployed with standardized procedures, potentially expanding access to reliable streamflow data.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2026

Hydrothermal manganese-oxide mineralization of a carbonate ooze, Samoan hotspot region, South Pacific Ocean

Low-temperature hydrothermal manganese oxides occur throughout the global oceans. However, the hydrothermal replacement of a carbonate ooze by manganese oxides is described here for the first time. The 24 samples dredged from three locations around the Territory of American Samoa in the South Pacific Ocean include six samples with remnant carbonate and volcaniclastic sediments, which we refer to as “low Mn,” and 18 samples in which the mineralization is pervasive and has replaced most original sediment, termed “high Mn.” The 18 high-Mn samples exhibit a mean Mn content of 51 wt.%. Higher Li and Mn contents and lower Fe contents in the high-Mn samples indicate a hydrothermal origin and distinguish these samples from hydrogenetic ferromanganese crusts. Mn-oxide layers are up to 90 mm thick, some with columns to 44 mm long and 10 mm wide, the magnitude of which has not been described previously. Samples are composed of birnessite and 10 Å phyllomanganate minerals. Textures of the thickest Mn layers indicate mineralization below the seabed from ascending fluids during multiple hydrothermal pulses. Mineralization took place by complete to partial replacement and cementation of foraminiferal sediments intermixed with volcaniclastic sediments in varying amounts. Our results highlight the production of carbonate sediment-hosted hydrothermal Mn oxides from multiple hydrothermal sources within the Samoan volcanic chain. The potential extensive distribution on the regional scale of this newly described mineralization process and unique element enrichments raise questions about its broader distribution globally and potential importance to hydrothermal processes, element mass balance, and seabed mineral resources.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗

USGS2026

Polystyrene microplastics alter the accumulation and elimination dynamics of silver nanoparticles in Daphnia magna

Rationale Microplastics (MPs) can interact with engineered nanomaterials and alter their environmental fate and bioavailability. However, their influence on the bioaccumulation dynamics of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) in aquatic filter feeders under environmentally relevant conditions remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that polystyrene microplastics (PS-MPs) alter the uptake, elimination and overall bioaccumulation dynamics of AgNPs in Daphnia magna . Methodology Adult D. magna were exposed to isotopically labeled citrate-coated 109 AgNPs in the presence and absence of PS-MPs. Waterborne uptake, dietary uptake, assimilation efficiency, food ingestion and elimination were quantified experimentally and incorporated into a biodynamic model to predict steady-state silver (Ag) concentrations under environmentally relevant exposure scenarios. Results PS-MPs increased waterborne Ag accumulation by approximately eightfold compared with AgNPs exposure alone. However, Ag elimination was substantially faster, with 98% of accumulated Ag eliminated after five days of depuration compared with 66% without PS-MPs. PS-MPs also reduced food ingestion rates (IRs), while assimilation efficiency remained largely unchanged. Biodynamic modeling predicted that steady-state Ag accumulation was approximately fivefold greater in the presence of PS-MPs, with waterborne exposure becoming the dominant accumulation pathway. Discussion These findings suggest that PS-MPs alter bioaccumulation dynamics of AgNPs in filter-feeding organisms by enhancing organism-associated Ag during waterborne exposure while accelerating Ag elimination, likely through particle-associated transport and gut egestion. Collectively, these results underscore the complexity of Ag bioaccumulation processes when MPs and AgNPs interact and highlight the importance of studies conducted under environmentally relevant conditions.

Environmental Chemistry↗

USGS2026

Evolution of arsenic speciation during thermal treatment simulating wildfire heating in arsenic-rich sediments

Understanding arsenic transformations during wildfires can help better constrain the environmental impacts of increased wildfire intensity, frequency, and burned area. Previous studies have monitored the evolution of metal(loid) speciation at specific time/temperature endpoints, hampering the comprehension of the dynamic transformations of metal(loid)s during wildfires. Here, a novel approach, namely in situ time-resolved X-ray absorption near edge structure (TR-XANES) spectroscopy, was used for the first time to monitor the heat-induced redox transformations of arsenic (As) in two As-rich sediments with different characteristics. No arsenic transformations were observed in either sediment at room temperature or when the sediments were heated to a maximum temperature of 400 ºC. When heated to a maximum temperature of 600 or 700 ºC, As underwent complex, dynamic, and partially reversible redox transformations, the extent of which varied with sediment properties, initial As speciation, and heating temperature and duration. In the case of sediments initially containing As(V) and a low sulfide/sulfate ratio, the As(V) was reduced to As(III) over a short period of time, followed by immediate reoxidation of As(III) to As(V). The extent of the transient As reduction increased with increasing maximum temperature. The final As speciation at the end of the heating experiment was not substantially different from that at the beginning of the experiment. In contrast, in sediments that were best described by a more complex combination of reference compounds (As(V) coprecipitated with or adsorbed on iron oxide, arseniosiderite, arsenopyrite) with a high sulfide/sulfate ratio, As(V) phases were reduced to As(III) and As(III) was further reduced to As(-I) (at 700 ºC, only), followed by delayed reoxidation of As(-I) to As(III) (at 700 ºC, only) and reoxidation of As(III) to As(V). Approximately 9% and 26% of all As remained as As(III) ( i.e., was not reoxidized to As(V)) at the end of the experiment when heated to a maximum temperature of 600 and 700 ºC, respectively, which is higher than the relative abundance of As(III) in the native sediment. These fire-induced As transformations can potentially enhance As mobilization to surface water and groundwater, posing risks to environmental and human health.

California↗

USGS2026

Synthesizing a twelve-year sediment trap time series of planktic foraminiferal flux in the Gulf of America (Mexico)

Sediment trap time series provide powerful frameworks for testing hypotheses about planktic foraminiferal assemblage composition, seasonality, and geochemical responses to environmental variability, all of which are central to improving paleoceanographic reconstructions. We present high resolution foraminiferal assemblage data from a long-running sediment trap (2008–2020) in the northern Gulf of America (Mexico). This study summarizes the species composition, seasonality, and size distribution of the fifteen most abundant species of planktic foraminifera, which account for 98% of total flux. Foraminiferal flux peaks in winter and reaches a minimum in summer, following the seasonal pattern of primary production in the northern Gulf. Winter assemblages are dominated by non-spinose taxa, whereas spinose taxa prevail during summer. Across nearly all species, average monthly test size covaries with temperature, independent of seasonal flux trends. Notably, Trilobatus sacculifer and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei show a significant decline in relative abundance and flux during 2017–2020, nearly disappearing from the assemblage.

Journal of Foraminiferal Research↗

USGS2026

Widespread landslide activity in an extreme wet season and implications for regional sediment management, eastern San Francisco Bay area, California

Watershed sediment production is expected to increase in a warmer future with more extreme rain, with cascading effects throughout drainage and sediment-transport networks. This study investigated landscape-scale sediment movement in the eastern San Francisco Bay area, California, USA, during the extreme 2016–2017 wet season that brought major rainfall, landslides, and flooding. Mapping 8,928 landslides across a 1,050-km 2 study area revealed new sediment yield of 510–956 t/km 2 , equivalent to denudation of 193–361 mm/ky. These results correspond closely to long-term denudation rates in the northern and central California Coast Ranges, indicating that mass wasting in very wet years dominates long-term sediment mobilization. However, due to long residence times in drainage networks, the 2017 landslides contributed at most ∼1%–2% of the estimated locally derived fluvial sediment transport to San Francisco Bay. Although the amount of sediment mobilized did not threaten municipal water supplies, small rangeland impoundments in this mixed-use landscape lost storage capacity to new sedimentation. Considering regional sediment supply and demand, even the exceptionally large sediment delivery in an extreme wet year cannot meet the need for sediment to accrete tidal wetlands in the bay. To keep pace with rising sea levels, this abnormally high terrestrial sediment input would need to occur in 50 of the next 75 years, an unlikely occurrence due to the prevalence of recent drought years. Shoreline protection and restoration in the bay would need additional sources of sediment, such as through management of dredged sediment through beneficial-reuse programs.

California↗

USGS2026

A roadmap for identifying and interpreting physical processes and national water model prediction bias associated with baseflow index regimes across the contiguous United States

Understanding how groundwater–surface water interactions shape streamflow variability is critical for diagnosing low flow behavior and prediction bias in continental scale hydrologic models. We present a process informed framework that links observed baseflow (BF) dynamics, watershed attributes, and National Water Model (NWM) performance across the contiguous United States. Using daily observed streamflow from 797 reference quality streamgages, we developed monthly baseflow index (BFI) signatures using a streamgage specific, calibrated digital filter. Hierarchical clustering of these signatures identified seven distinct BFI regimes capturing regional and seasonal variability. We evaluated NWM v3.0 retrospective streamflow performance within each regime using multiple hydrograph and flow duration curve-based metrics. Model skill varied systematically across regimes: mixed flow systems were simulated most accurately, while predominantly BF dominated and quickflow dominated regimes exhibited substantially poorer performance. Across nearly all regimes, the NWM underestimated observed BFI magnitude and frequently failed to reproduce seasonal BF patterns, indicating systematic biases in simulated low flow contributions. To relate these regimes to potential process controls, we trained a Random Forest classifier using static watershed attributes and applied Shapley Additive Explanations to identify features most strongly associated with each regime. Results highlight regionally varying influences, including the dominant role of snow fraction and seasonal runoff timing in snow dominated basins and the importance of evapotranspiration and aridity in quickflow dominated systems. Collectively, these findings demonstrate how hydrologic signatures combined with interpretable machine learning can diagnose regime specific model biases and generate process-based hypotheses about limitations in large scale hydrologic prediction systems.

contiguous United States↗

USGS2026

Microclimate mediates the strength and direction of avian biotic interactions

Theory predicts that that the strength and direction of species interactions can shift from being competitive in benign environments toward being facilitative in stressful environments. However, the environmental context dependency of species interactions has rarely been tested in animal communities. We capitalized on a 15-year, landscape-scale dataset, collected annually in a relatively stable old-growth forest environment to test the long-held hypothesis that the strength and direction of species interactions might be mediated by climatic conditions. It is generally accepted that competitive and facilitative interactions drive the distributions of many species. Using multi-species dynamic occupancy models applied to long-term data, we tested whether annual settlement by bird species could affect either the persistence or settlement by other phylogenetically related species, and whether these interactions are mediated by microclimate. We found that species interactions were influenced by microclimate for some, but not all avian species pairs. Related species pairs more often showed settlement dynamics that were indicative of attraction rather than repulsion. In some cases, competitive interactions at warmer microclimates flipped to become facilitative in colder ones. However, the reverse was also true: facilitative interactions amplified for some species under warm conditions. Furthermore, species pairs that were closely related were more likely to exhibit competitive relationships along at least part of the microclimatic gradient. Our results highlight the importance of using long-term data to incorporate competitive and facilitative interactions into species distribution models and support the notion that the strength and direction of species interactions can be dependent on microclimatic environmental conditions.

Oregon↗

USGS2026

Postglacial ecosystem development of a hydrothermal landscape in Yellowstone National Park

The Yellowstone geo-ecosystem has been the subject of much research, but the ecological history of the Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field and its iconic geyser basins is less known. In this investigation, paleoenvironmental analyses of sediment cores from lakes in Lower Geyser Basin were compared with regional records and paleoclimate model simulations to reconstruct the vegetation, wildfire, limnology, hydrothermal dynamics, and climate drivers since deglaciation, 15,000 to 14,000 years ago. Pollen data from Lower Geyser Basin lakes reveal the strong influence of infertile rhyolitic soils on vegetation history: an initial late-glacial steppe was replaced by lodgepole pine forest from 12.8 to 11.0 ka, with little change in forest composition or cover thereafter despite changing climate. This stability contrasts with the more dynamic vegetation response on nonrhyolite substrates in the Yellowstone region where nutrient and moisture availability is greater. Highest wildfire activity and low lake nutrient levels in Lower Geyser Basin occurred from 12 to 4 ka, when summers were substantially warmer and drier and fire-inducing vapor pressure deficits were 29 to 56% higher. The hydrothermal history, inferred from sedimentary arsenic and cesium abundances, was spatially and temporally variable but lake-forming hydrothermal events align with periods of abundant moisture. Thus, long-term changes in wildfire, limnology, and, to some extent, hydrothermal activity were governed by insolation-driven climate variations, whereas the vegetation response was muted and constrained by geologic processes. These findings suggest that warmer, drier conditions in the future could result in less hydrothermal activity yet little change in forest cover across the Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field despite more wildfires.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗