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At least 523 records · Page 29Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Benthic and planktonic inorganic nutrient processing rates at the interface between a river and lake

The interface between lotic and lentic ecosystems is often a zone of intense metabolic activity, as primary production in streams and rivers can be light limited whereas nutrients often limit primary production in lake ecosystems. Our objective was to model the influence that rivermouths (the lotic-lentic interface) could have on the loads of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (N) passing from the tributary to the nearshore zone of a lake. To achieve this objective, we modeled the combined role of water column nutrient transformation rates with sediment nutrient flux rates. For sensitivity analysis, we picked plausible parameter ranges based on values previously measured in the Fox rivermouth (a tributary to Lake Michigan). Sensitivity analysis of the model demonstrated that overall the importance of water column processing rates increases with increasing nutrient concentration and discharge. We then applied the model to the Fox rivermouth, simulating the change in nutrients on four dates where all of the necessary parameters had been estimated. This modeling suggests that the Fox rivermouth is often a net sink for SRP and source for ammonia (NH 4 ), with water column processing driving SRP removal and both water column and sediment flux driving NH 4 dynamics. Removal of SRP in the water column means conversion to particulate and/or organic P, and those P pools are generally considered to be less bioavailable than SRP, so it may be that rivermouths disconnect upstream sources of nutrients from nearshore food webs. These results demonstrate that the interface zone between lotic and lentic systems has the potential to substantially alter the load and character of nutrients as river waters pass through rivermouths to adjacent nearshore areas.

Biogeochemistry↗
USGS2021

Anthropogenic landcover impacts fluvial dissolved organic matter composition in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Landcover changes have altered the natural carbon cycle; however, most landcover studies focus on either forest conversion to agriculture or urban, rarely both. We present differences in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and dissolved organic matter (DOM) molecular composition within Upper Mississippi River Basin low order streams and rivers draining one of three dominant landcovers (forest, agriculture, and urban). Streams draining forest and urban landcovers have greater DOC concentrations, likely driven by differences in carbon sourcing, microbial processing, and soil disturbance. Using Fourier transform-ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry, 24% of assigned molecular formulae are common across all landcovers. Relative abundances of N-,S- heteroatomic formulae (CHON, CHOS, CHONS) are higher for agricultural and urban streams, with agricultural stream DOM having more N-containing formulae compared to urban stream DOM, which has more S-containing formulae. Higher N-,S- heteroatomic formulae abundance, along with enrichment in aliphatic, N-aliphatic, and highly unsaturated and phenolic (low O/C) compound categories within agricultural and urban stream DOM are likely to result from increased anthropogenic inputs, autochthonous production, and microbial processing associated with agricultural and urban impacts. Reduced N-,S- heteroatomic formulae abundances in forested stream DOM, along with enrichments in condensed aromatics, polyphenolics, and highly unsaturated phenolic (high O/C) compound categories, likely reflect greater contributions from surrounding organic-rich forest soil and vegetation. Overall, landcover change from forested to agriculture lowers DOC concentrations and changes from forested to agriculture or urban increases autochthonous, and presumably more biolabile, DOM contributions with ramifications for stream biogeochemical cycling.

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia: Examining subseasonal climate impacts on crops and pasture conditions

Ethiopia experiences significant climate-induced drought and stress on crop and livestock productivity, contributing to widespread food insecurity. Here, we present subseasonal crop water stress analyses that indicate degrading, growing conditions along Ethiopia’s eastern highlands, including productive and populated highland regions. These seasonally shifting areas of increasing water stress stretch from the north to south across eastern Ethiopia, intersecting regions of acute food insecurity and/or high population. Crop model simulations indicate that between 1982 and 2014, parts of eastern Amhara and eastern Oromia experienced increasing water deficits during the critical sowing, flowering, and ripening periods of crop growth. These trends occurred while population in these regions increased by 143% between 2000 and 2015. These areas of enhanced crop water stress in south-central Ethiopia coincide with regions of high population growth and ongoing crop extensification. Conversely, large regions of relatively unpopulated western Ethiopia are becoming wetter. These areas may therefore be good targets for agricultural development.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2017

Assessing the impact of stocking northern-origin hatchery brook trout on the genetics of wild populations in North Carolina

The release of hatchery-origin fish into streams with endemics can degrade the genetics of wild populations if interbreeding occurs. Starting in the 1800s, brook trout descendent from wild populations in the northeastern United States were stocked from hatcheries into streams across broad areas of North America to create and enhance fishery resources. Across the southeastern United States, many millions of hatchery-origin brook trout have been released into hundreds of streams, but the extent of introgression with native populations is not well resolved despite large phylogeographic distances between these groups. We used three assessment approaches based on 12 microsatellite loci to examine the extent of hatchery introgression in 406 wild brook trout populations in North Carolina. We found high levels of differentiation among most collections (mean F ′ ST = 0.718), and among most wild collections and hatchery strains (mean F ′ ST = 0.732). Our assessment of hatchery introgression was consistent across the three metrics, and indicated that most wild populations have not been strongly influenced by supplemental stocking. However, a small proportion of wild populations in North Carolina appear to have been strongly influenced by stocked conspecifics, or in some cases, may have been founded entirely by hatchery lineages. In addition, we found significant differences in the apparent extent of hatchery introgression among major watersheds, with the Savannah River being the most strongly impacted. Conversely, populations in the Pee Dee River watershed showed little to no evidence of hatchery introgression. Our study represents the first large-scale effort to quantify the extent of hatchery introgression across brook trout populations in the southern Appalachians using highly polymorphic microsatellite markers.

North Carolina↗
USGS2024

DNA-based studies and genetic diversity indicator assessments are complementary approaches to conserving evolutionary potential

Genetic diversity is essential for maintaining healthy populations and ecosystems. Several approaches have recently been developed to evaluate population genetic trends without necessarily collecting new genetic data. Such “genetic diversity indicators” enable rapid, large-scale evaluation across dozens to thousands of species. Empirical genetic studies, when available, provide detailed information that is important for management, such as estimates of gene flow, inbreeding, genetic erosion and adaptation. In this article, we argue that the development and advancement of genetic diversity indicators is a complementary approach to genetic studies in conservation biology, but not a substitute. Genetic diversity indicators and empirical genetic data can provide different information for conserving genetic diversity. Genetic diversity indicators enable affordable tracking, reporting, prioritization and communication, although, being proxies, do not provide comprehensive evaluation of the genetic status of a species. Conversely, genetic methods offer detailed analysis of the genetic status of a given species or population, although they remain challenging to implement for most species globally, given current capacity and resourcing. We conclude that indicators and genetic studies are both important for genetic conservation actions and recommend they be used in combination for conserving and monitoring genetic diversity.

Conservation Genetics↗
USGS2014

The role of depth in regulating water quality and fish assemblages in oxbow lakes

We evaluated water quality and fish assemblages in deep (> 3.0 m; N = 7) and shallow (< 1.5 m; N = 6) floodplain lakes in the intensively cultivated Yazoo River Basin (Mississippi, USA) using indirect gradient multivariate procedures. Shallow lakes displayed wide diel oxygen fluctuations, some reaching hypoxic/anoxic conditions for extended periods of time, high suspended solids, and extreme water temperatures. Conversely, deeper lakes were represented by higher visibility, stable oxygen levels, and cooler water temperatures. Fish assemblages in shallow lakes were dominated by tolerant, small-bodied fishes and those able to breathe atmospheric oxygen. Deeper lakes had a greater representation of predators and other large-bodied fishes. Our evaluation suggests fish assemblages are reflective of oxbow lakes water quality, which is shaped by depth. Understanding the interactions between depth, water quality, and fish assemblages may facilitate development of effective management plans for improving conditions necessary to sustain diverse fish assemblages in agriculturally dominated basins.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗
USGS2018

Warm water temperatures and shifts in seasonality increase trout recruitment but only moderately decrease adult size in western North American tailwaters

Dams throughout western North America have altered thermal regimes in rivers, creating cold, clear “tailwaters” in which trout populations thrive. Ongoing drought in the region has led to highly publicized reductions in reservoir storage and raised concerns about potential reductions in downstream flows. Large changes in riverine thermal regimes may also occur as reservoir water levels drop, yet this potential impact has received far less attention. We analyzed historic water temperature and fish population data to anticipate how trout may respond to future changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river temperatures. We found that summer temperatures were inversely related to reservoir water level, with warm temperatures associated with reduced storage and with dams operated as run-of-river units. Variation in rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) recruitment was linked to water temperature variation, with a 5-fold increase in recruitment occurring at peak summer temperatures (18 °C vs. 7 °C) and a 2.5-fold increase in recruitment when peak temperatures occurred in summer rather than fall. Conversely, adult trout size was only moderately related to temperature. Rainbow and brown trout ( Salmo trutta ) size decreased by ~24 mm and 20 mm, respectively, as mean annual and peak summer temperatures increased. Further, rainbow trout size decreased by ~29 mm with an earlier onset of cold winter temperatures. While increased recruitment may be the more likely outcome of a warmer and drier climate, density-dependent growth constraints could exacerbate temperature-dependent growth reductions. As such, managers may consider implementing flows to reduce recruitment or altering infrastructure to maintain coldwater reservoir releases.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗
USGS2020

Methylmercury-Total mercury ratios in predator and primary consumer insects from Adirondack streams (New York, USA)

Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant that affects biota in remote settings due to atmospheric deposition of inorganic Hg, and its conversion to methylmercury (MeHg), the bioaccumulating and toxic form. Characterizing biotic MeHg is important for evaluating aquatic ecosystem responses to changes in Hg inputs. Aquatic insects possess many qualities desired for MeHg biomonitoring, but are not widely used, largely because of limited information regarding percentages of total mercury (THg) composed of MeHg (i.e., MeHg%) in various taxa. Here, we examine taxonomic, spatial, and seasonal variation in MeHg% of stream-dwelling predator and primary-consumer insects from nine streams in the Adirondack region (NY, USA). Predator MeHg% was high (median 94%) and did not differ significantly among five taxa. MeHg% in selected dragonflies (the most abundant predators, Odonata: Aeshnidae and Libellulidae) exhibited little seasonal and spatial variation, and THg concentration was strongly correlated with aqueous (filtered) MeHg (FMeHg; r s = 0.76). In contrast, MeHg% in primary consumers—shredders (northern caddisflies [Trichoptera: Limnephilidae]) and scrapers (flathead mayflies [Ephemeroptera: Heptageniidae]), were lower (medians 52% and 35%, respectively), and differed significantly between taxa, among sites, and seasonally. Correlations of THg with FMeHg were weak (shredders, r s = 0.45, p = 0.09) or not significant (scrapers, p = 0.89). The higher MeHg% of predators corresponded with their higher trophic positions (indicated by nitrogen stable isotopes). Results suggest obligate predators hold the most promise for the use of THg as a surrogate for MeHg biomonitoring with aquatic insects within the Adirondack region.

Adirondack Mountains↗
USGS2020

A synthesis of patterns of environmental mercury inputs, exposure and effects in New York State

Mercury (Hg) pollution is an environmental problem that adversely affects human and ecosystem health at local, regional, and global scales—including within New York State. More than two-thirds of the Hg currently released to the environment originates, either directly or indirectly, from human activities. Since the early 1800s, global atmospheric Hg concentrations have increased by three- to eight-fold over natural levels. In the U.S., atmospheric emissions and point-source releases to waterways increased following industrialization into the mid-1980s. Since then, water discharges have largely been curtailed. As a result, Hg emissions, atmospheric concentrations, and deposition over the past few decades have declined across the eastern U.S. Despite these decreases, Hg pollution persists. To inform policy efforts and to advance public understanding, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) sponsored a scientific synthesis of information on Hg in New York State. This effort includes 23 papers focused on Hg in atmospheric deposition, water, fish, and wildlife published in Ecotoxicology . New York State experiences Hg contamination largely due to atmospheric deposition. Some landscapes are inherently sensitive to Hg inputs driven by the transport of inorganic Hg to zones of methylation, the conversion of inorganic Hg to methylmercury, and the bioaccumulation and biomagnification along food webs. Mercury concentrations exceed human and ecological risk thresholds in many areas of New York State, particularly the Adirondacks, Catskills, and parts of Long Island. Mercury concentrations in some biota have declined in the Eastern Great Lakes Lowlands and the Northeastern Highlands over the last four decades, concurrent with decreases in water releases and air emissions from regional and U.S. sources. However, widespread changes have not occurred in other ecoregions of New York State. While the timing and magnitude of the response of Hg levels in biota varies, policies expected to further diminish Hg emissions should continue to decrease Hg concentrations in food webs, yielding benefits to the fish, wildlife, and people of New York State. Anticipated improvements in the Hg status of aquatic ecosystems are likely to be greatest for inland surface waters and should be roughly proportional to declines in atmospheric Hg deposition. Efforts that advance recovery from Hg pollution in recent years have yielded significant progress, but Hg remains a pollutant of concern. Indeed, due to this extensive compilation of Hg observations in biota, it appears that the extent and intensity of the contamination on the New York landscape and waterscape is greater than previously recognized. Understanding the extent of Hg contamination and recovery following decreases in atmospheric Hg deposition will require further study, underscoring the need to continue existing monitoring efforts.

New York↗
USGS2013

Effect of power plant emission reductions on a nearby wilderness area: a case study in northwestern Colorado

This study evaluates the effect of emission reductions at two coal-fired power plants in northwestern Colorado on a nearby wilderness area. Control equipment was installed at both plants during 1999–2004 to reduce SO 2 and NOx emissions. One challenge was separating the effects of local from regional emissions, which also declined during the study period. The long-term datasets examined confirm that emission reductions had a beneficial effect on air and water quality in the wilderness. Despite a 75 % reduction in SO 2 emissions, sulfate aerosols measured in the wilderness decreased by only 20 %. Because the site is relatively close to the power plants (<75 km), the slow rate of conversion of SO 2 to sulfate, particularly under conditions of low relative humidity, might account for this less than one-to-one response. On the clearest days, emissions controls appeared to improve visibility by about 1 deciview, which is a small but perceptible improvement. On the haziest days, however, there was little improvement perhaps reflecting the dominance of regional haze and other components of visibility degradation particularly organic carbon and dust. Sulfate and acidity in atmospheric deposition decreased by 50 % near the southern end of the wilderness of which 60 % was attributed to power plant controls and the remainder to reductions in regional sources. Lake water sulfate responded rapidly to trends in deposition declining at 28 lakes monitored in and near the wilderness. Although no change in the acid–base status was observed, few of the lakes appear to be at risk from chronic or episodic acidification.

Colorado↗
USGS2020

Minnesota landowners’ trust in their department of natural resources, salient values similarity and wildlife value orientations

Due to extensive land conversion over the last century, much of the native prairie pothole ecosystem has been converted to agricultural or other human uses. The prairie pothole ecosystem is found in the northern plains of Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana. Because most of the land in this region is privately owned and used for agricultural production, most impacts to wildlife habitat are the result of decisions by individual landowners. Landowner trust in natural resource management agencies is important for agencies to effectively accomplish their mission. We measured the nature (competence and fairness) and level of trust that western Minnesota landowners have in the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MnDNR) and landowners’ wildlife value orientations (WVO). Landowners rated MnDNR slightly higher in competence than fairness; however, these two dimensions were strongly correlated. We developed a MnDNR trust scale (six items) and a three-cluster model dividing landowners along the MnDNR trust scale, which we named Negative (28%), Neutral (43%), and Positive (29%). We provide evidence supporting the salient values similarity (SVS) model that states people have trust in agencies holding similar values; landowners reporting greater importance for wildlife consideration when making land-use decisions also reported greater trust in the MnDNR. In addition, mutualist landowners had the highest trust in the MnDNR and utilitarian landowners the lowest level of trust, which is opposite of the trust relationship reported for the general public with state wildlife agencies. Based on the SVS model, our results suggest that mutualist landowners perceive greater congruence with MnDNR goals related to wildlife habitat compared to utilitarian landowners.

Minnesota↗
USGS2016

Patch occupancy of stream fauna across a land cover gradient in the southern Appalachians, USA

We modeled patch occupancy to examine factors that best predicted the prevalence of four functionally important focal stream consumers ( Tallaperla spp., Cambarus spp., Pleurocera proxima , and Cottus bairdi ) among 37 reaches within the Little Tennessee River basin of the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. We compared 34 models of patch occupancy to examine the association of catchment and reach scale factors that varied as a result of converting forest to agricultural or urban land use. Occupancy of our taxa was linked to parameters reflecting both catchment and reach extent characteristics. At the catchment level, forest cover or its conversion to agriculture was a major determinant of occupancy for all four taxa. Patch occupancies of Tallaperla, Cambarus, and C. bairdi were positively, and Pleurocera negatively, correlated with forest cover. Secondarily at the reach level, local availability of large woody debris was important for Cambarus , availability of large cobble substrate was important for C. bairdi , and stream calcium concentration was important for P. proxima . Our results show the abundance of stream organisms was determined by the taxon-dependent interplay between catchment- and reach-level factors.

Georgia, North Carolina↗
USGS2020

Soil surface elevation dynamics in a mangrove-to-marsh ecotone characterized by vegetation shifts

Mangrove forest encroachment into coastal marsh habitats has been described in subtropical regions worldwide in recent decades. To better understand how soil processes may influence vegetation change, we studied soil surface elevation change, accretion rates, and soil subsurface change across a coastal salinity gradient in Florida, USA, an area with documented mangrove encroachment into saline marshes. Our aim was to identify if variations in the soil variables studied exist and to document any associated vegetation shifts. We used surface elevation tables and marker horizons to document the soil variables over 5 years in a mangrove-to-marsh transition zone or ecotone. Study sites were located in three marsh types (brackish, salt, and transition) and in riverine mangrove forests. Mangrove forest sites had significantly higher accretion rates than marsh sites and were the only locations where elevation gain occurred. Significant loss in surface elevation occurred at transition and salt marsh sites. Transition marshes, which had a significantly higher rate of shallow subsidence compared to other wetland types, appear to be most vulnerable to submergence or to a shift to mangrove forest. Submergence can result in herbaceous vegetation mortality and conversion to open water, with severe implications to the quantity and quality of wetland services provided.

Florida↗
USGS2017

Sampling bees in tropical forests and agroecosystems: A review

Bees are the predominant pollinating taxa, providing a critical ecosystem service upon which many angiosperms rely for successful reproduction. Available data suggests that bee populations worldwide are declining, but scarce data in tropical regions precludes assessing their status and distribution, impact on ecological services, and response to management actions. Herein, we reviewed >150 papers that used six common sampling methods (pan traps, baits, Malaise traps, sweep nets, timed observations and aspirators) to better understand their strengths and weaknesses, and help guide method selection to meet research objectives and development of multi-species monitoring approaches. Several studies evaluated the effectiveness of sweep nets, pan traps, and malaise traps, but only one evaluated timed observations, and none evaluated aspirators. Only five studies compared two or more of the remaining four sampling methods to each other. There was little consensus regarding which method would be most reliable for sampling multiple species. However, we recommend that if the objective of the study is to estimate abundance or species richness, malaise traps, pan traps and sweep nets are the most effective sampling protocols in open tropical systems; conversely, malaise traps, nets and baits may be the most effective in forests. Declining bee populations emphasize the critical need in method standardization and reporting precision. Moreover, we recommend reporting a catchability coefficient, a measure of the interaction between the resource (bee) abundance and catching effort. Melittologists could also consider existing methods, such as occupancy models, to quantify changes in distribution and abundance after modeling heterogeneity in trapping probability, and consider the possibility of developing monitoring frameworks that draw from multiple sources of data.

Journal of Insect Conservation↗
USGS2005

Landscape structure and plague occurrence in black-tailed prairie dogs on grasslands of the western USA

Landscape structure influences the abundance and distribution of many species, including pathogens that cause infectious diseases. Black-tailed prairie dogs in the western USA have declined precipitously over the past 100 years, most recently due to grassland conversion and their susceptibility to sylvatic plague. We assembled and analyzed two long-term data sets on plague occurrence in black-tailed prairie dogs to explore the hypotheses that plague occurrence is associated with colony characteristics and landscape context. Our two study areas (Boulder County, Colorado, and Phillips County, Montana) differed markedly in degree of urbanization and other landscape characteristics. In both study areas, we found associations between plague occurrence and landscape and colony characteristics such as the amount of roads, streams and lakes surrounding a prairie dog colony, the area covered by the colony and its neighbors, and the distance to the nearest plague-positive colony. Logistic regression models were similar between the two study areas, with the best models predicting positive effects of proximity to plague-positive colonies and negative effects of road, stream and lake cover on plague occurrence. Taken together, these results suggest that roads, streams and lakes may serve as barriers to plague in black-tailed prairie dog colonies by affecting movement of or habitat quality for plague hosts or for fleas that serve as vectors for the pathogen. The similarity in plague correlates between urban and rural study areas suggests that the correlates of plague are not altered by uniquely urban stressors. ?? Springer 2005.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2019

Influence of fire refugia spatial pattern on post-fire forest recovery in Oregon’s Blue Mountains

Context Fire regimes in many dry forests of western North America are substantially different from historical conditions, and there is concern about the ability of these forests to recover following severe wildfire. Fire refugia, unburned or low-severity burned patches where trees survived fire, may serve as essential propagule sources that enable forest regeneration. Objectives To quantify the influence of fire refugia spatial pattern and other biophysical factors on the process of post-fire tree regeneration; in particular examining both the proximity and density of surrounding refugia to characterize the landscape of refugial seed sources. Methods We surveyed regeneration at 135 sites in stand-replacement patches across a gradient of fire refugia density in eastern Oregon, USA. We characterized the influence of refugial seed source pattern and other environmental factors on the abundance of regenerating seedlings, and examined the relationship between post-fire climate and the temporal pattern of ponderosa pine seedling establishment. Results Tree seedlings were present in 83% of plots 12–17 years post-fire, and densities varied substantially (0–67800 stems ha −1 , median = 1100). Variation in seedling abundance was driven by the spatial patterns of refugial seed sources. Despite widespread post-fire shrub cover, high-severity burned forests have not undergone a persistent type conversion to shrublands. Ponderosa pine seedling establishment peaked 5–11 years after fire and was not closely associated with post-fire climate. Conclusions Fire refugia and the seed sources they contain fostered tree regeneration in severely burned patches. Management practices that reduce refugia within post-fire landscapes may negatively influence essential forest recovery processes.

Oregon↗
USGS2022

Over the hills and through the farms: Land use and topography influence genetic connectivity of northern leopard frog (Rana pipiens) in the Prairie Pothole Region

Context Agricultural land-use conversion has fragmented prairie wetland habitats in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), an area with one of the most wetland dense regions in the world. This fragmentation can lead to negative consequences for wetland obligate organisms, heightening risk of local extinction and reducing evolutionary potential for populations to adapt to changing environments. Objectives This study models biotic connectivity of prairie-pothole wetlands using landscape genetic analyses of the northern leopard frog ( Rana pipiens ) to (1) identify population structure and (2) determine landscape factors driving genetic differentiation and possibly leading to population fragmentation. Methods Frogs from 22 sites in the James River and Lake Oahe river basins in North Dakota were genotyped using Best-RAD sequencing at 2868 bi-allelic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Population structure was assessed using STRUCTURE, DAPC, and fineSTRUCTURE. Circuitscape was used to model resistance values for ten landscape variables that could affect habitat connectivity. Results STRUCTURE results suggested a panmictic population, but other more sensitive clustering methods identified six spatially organized clusters. Circuit theory-based landscape resistance analysis suggested land use, including cultivated crop agriculture, and topography were the primary influences on genetic differentiation. Conclusion While the R. pipiens populations appear to have high gene flow, we found a difference in the patterns of connectivity between the eastern portion of our study area which was dominated by cultivated crop agriculture, versus the western portion where topographic roughness played a greater role. This information can help identify amphibian dispersal corridors and prioritize lands for conservation or restoration.

North Dakota↗
USGS2026

Local, regional, and coastwide effects of interactions between storms and relative position in tidal frame on Louisiana coastal marshes

Context In coastal wetlands, land area is dynamic in both space and time, and it is crucial to understand the factors that may tip the balance between wetland area loss and gain. Flooding has been shown to be a key regulator of wetland resilience to land loss through effects on vegetation health and productivity. However, the relationship between elevation and land change is complex, likely interacting with lateral processes such as edge erosion to influence land change rates. Objectives We sought to determine the role of storms, major drivers of lateral erosion, to help explain the complex relationships between elevation and land change at multiple spatial scales and improve predictions of wetland loss. Methods We used long-term records of elevation change, water elevation, and surface wind stress together with remotely sensed land-area change datasets to determine the factors that contribute to land loss in Louisiana (USA) coastal wetlands. Results Our results illustrate that wetland elevation alone cannot be used as a predictor of land change. Annual time-integrated wind stress, which we used as an indicator of storminess, is an important predictor of land change and interacts with elevation to impact wetland gain or loss. The data showed high site-level variation, indicating that local factors strongly determine land change. Nonetheless, we were able to identify broad generalities at the larger scales. We found that the interaction of flooding and storminess varied among geographic regions along the coast. In the Delta Plain region of the coast, sites that are frequently flooded (low elevation) were more likely to experience land gain in stormy years and land loss in calm years. Conversely, sites that were frequently drained (high elevation) had greater land loss during stormy years, presumably due to wind-wave erosion. This trend was not observed in the heavily managed Chenier Plain region, where perpetually flooded wetlands gained land during stormy years, likely due to wind-driven drainage of the marsh. Conclusion Together, these results illustrate that models of wetland vulnerability based upon elevation change or storm effects alone are too simple and will not capture observed trends in land change. Incorporating additional factors such as wind stress and management status can improve predictions of coastal wetland loss and our understanding of the mechanisms controlling resilience of these ecosystems.

Louisiana↗