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At least 523 records · Page 29Linked to original sources
USGS2004

Integrated monitoring of hydrogeomorphic, vegetative, and edaphic conditions in riparian ecosystems of Great Basin National Park, Nevada

In semiarid regions such as the Great Basin, riparian areas function as oases of cooler and more stable microclimates, greater relative humidity, greater structural complexity, and a steady flow of water and nutrients relative to upland areas. These qualities make riparian areaʼs attractive not only to resident and migratory wildlife, but also to visitors in recreation areas such as Great Basin National Park in the Snake Range, east-central Nevada. To expand upon the system of ten permanent plots sampled in 1992 (Smith et al. 1994) and 2001 (Beever et al. in press ), we established a collection of 31 cross-sectional transects of 50-m width across the mainstems of Strawberry, Lehman, Baker, and Snake creeks. Our aims in this research were threefold: a) map riparian vegetative communities in greater detail than had been done by past efforts; b) provide a monitoring baseline of hydrogeomorphology; structure, composition, and function of upland- and riparianassociated vegetation; and edaphic properties potentially sensitive to management; and c) test whether instream conditions or physiographic variables predicted vegetation patterns across the four target streams. In each of the four watersheds, we performed walking transects from the lower-elevation boundary of the park along creek mainstems to a point well above the point at which vehicle access stopped. In these transects, we ranked, by cover, the riparian and upland woody species on each side of the creek, in 0.32-km segments. These walking transects also facilitated selection of a suite of cross-sectional transects that might serve as an early-warning signal of change for natural (e.g., aggradative) and anthropogenic changes (e.g., due to visitor impacts or climate change). At each cross-sectional transect, we used several methods: a) measurement of the number, approximate volume, and total length of instream logs greater than 10 cm in diameter that were within 5 m up- or downstream of the transect; b) counts of pebbles by size class, following Wolman (1954); c) line-point intercepts, which provided various measures of percent cover; d) gap-intercept transects, following Herrick et al. (in press), to measure susceptibility of uplands to erosion by wind or water; e) 1-m 2 quadrats, to obtain frequency of woody species; f) nested-frequency plots, to measure frequency of all plant species in quadrats of varying size; g) a field-based soil aggregate stability test following Herrick et al. (2001); and h) an impact penetrometer, to measure penetration resistance of soil horizons. We used species-accumulation curves to assess the ability of our methods to detect the majority of plant species at sites, using the most species-rich and species-poor sites as illustrations. We compared characteristics of hydrogeomorphic valley types (designated by Frissell and Liss 1993), vegetation types, and creeks individually and, using multivariate analyses for the first two ʻtypes,ʼ simultaneously. For the latter, using both the nested-frequency and 1-m 2 frequency data, we first used nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) to assess relationships of plant communities among sites. Secondly, we used multi-response permutation procedures (MRPP) to test whether plant-community differences existed among either hydrogeomophic valley types or vegetation types. To increase the value of these comparisons for management, we used indicator species analyses to quantify the indicator value of each individual plant species for separating groups. In contrast to the more incised riparian channels of central Nevada, we observed knickzones, downcutting, and incision only rarely and usually with limited extent in the walking surveys. Downcutting occurred most frequently and extensively in Strawberry and Snake creeks, due in part to their more erodible soils. According to a hydrogeomorphologist with extensive experience in Great Basin riparian systems, the sediment-delivery and hydrologic systems appeared relatively undisturbed in most reaches, with respect to grazing animals and other types of anthropogenic alteration. Site elevation of the 31 transects ranged from 1,950-2,987 m, and stream slope (i.e., gradient) was relatively steep (mean = 9.3%, range 3-16%). Strawberry Creek averaged the lowest maximum water depth, and correspondingly had greatest width/depth ratios. Baker Creek sites averaged the smallest amount of tree-canopy gaps, whereas Snake Creek sites on average had the largest proportion of gaps in understory vegetation. Sites in terrace-bound valley types averaged the lowest slope in the channel as well as the least cover of trees, litter, and vegetation overall, whereas alluviated, boulder-bed canyon sites averaged the greatest widths of the active channel. Sites in Lehman Creek averaged nearly twice as much coarse woody debris as sites from any other creek, whereas Baker Creek sites averaged greatest tree cover (mean = 67%, range 40 – 96%) and species richness (mean = 17.3 species). Multivariate ordinations suggested that sites in leveed outwash valleys and alluvial-fan-influenced valleys had the greatest inter-site heterogeneity in plant composition, whereas sites in incised moraine-filled valleys appeared most homogeneous. Differences among homogeneity of sites within vegetation types were less pronounced, but sites dominated by either aspen and Woodsʼ rose or narrow-leaved cottonwood had the most similar plant communities among sites of the same vegetation type. A number of species were faithful indicators of various valley and vegetation types, using either set of plant-frequency data. We estimate that all 31 sites could be subsequently re-sampled in 14-18 field days by individuals possessing familiarity of the riparian flora of the southern Snake Range. As with any research, monitoring-focused investigations must balance the concerns for number of ecosystem attributes measured, extensiveness in time and space of sampling periods and locations, and the time and cost of sampling.

Nevada↗
USGS2015

Pacific blue mussel (Mytilus trossulus) abundance in the Gulf of Alaska: Synthesis of Gulf Watch data (2006-2013) and a consideration of major recruitment events (1989-2013)

Pacific blue mussels ( Mytilus trossulus ) are abundant and wide-spread primary consumers in the intertidal zone throughout the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). As a component of the Gulf Watch Alaska monitoring program, they represent a key member of intertidal communities and an important prey resource to a number of nearshore vertebrate predators. Our goal is to understand variation in abundance of M. trossulus over large temporal and spatial scales and over a variety of habitats in the northern GOA to determine the bottom-up factors that influence recruitment and the top-down forces that control total biomass. This information is needed to predict consequences of variation due to incremental climate change, periodic regime shifts, and catastrophic change caused by oil spills or natural events such as severe winters.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Climate change amplifies ongoing declines in sagebrush ecological integrity

Understanding how climate change will contribute to ongoing declines in sagebrush ecological integrity is critical for informing natural resource management, yet complicated by interactions with wildfire and biological invasions. Here, we assessed potential future changes in sagebrush ecological integrity under a range of scenarios using an individual plant-based simulation model, integrated with remotely sensed estimates of current sagebrush ecological integrity. The simulation model allowed us to estimate how climate change, wildfire, and invasive annuals interact to alter the potential abundance of key plant functional types that influence sagebrush ecological integrity: sagebrush, perennial grasses, and annual grasses. Our results suggest that climate driven reductions in sagebrush ecological integrity may occur over broader areas than increases in sagebrush ecological integrity. Declines in sagebrush ecological integrity were most likely in hot and dry regions while increases were more likely in cool and wet regions. Increases in wildfire probability, largely driven by increasing invasive annual grass abundance, resulted in projected declines in sagebrush abundance and sagebrush ecological integrity in some regions, particularly the Great Basin. The most common projected transitions in sagebrush habitat classification were declines from Core Sagebrush Area to Growth Opportunity Area and from Growth Opportunity Area to Other Rangeland Area. Responses varied considerably across projections from different global climate models, highlighting the importance of climate uncertainty. However, our projections tended to be robust in areas that currently have the highest sagebrush ecological integrity. Our results provide a long-term perspective on the vulnerability of sagebrush ecosystems to climate change and may inform geographic prioritization of conservation and restoration investments. These results suggest that ongoing threats, such as the continued invasion by annual grasses and increased wildfire frequency, are likely to be amplified by climate change, and imply that the current imbalance between capacity for conservation to address threats to sagebrush will grow as the climate warms.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2019

Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) climate scenario planning pilot report

Scenario planning is a structured process that embraces uncertainty and explores plausible alternative future conditions under different assumptions to help manage risk and prioritize actions ( Schwartz 1996, Peterson et al . 2003). It has been used by a variety of organizations to explore and help prepare for the future, lends itself well to exploring the uncertainty surrounding changing environmental conditions, and is widely applicable to natural resource management issues. The conservation and management of protected resources for example, can be particularly challenging when the rate and magnitude of climate-related changes, and the response of species to those changes, are uncertain (NMFS 2016). The structured process of scenario planning can help resource managers navigate through potentially paralyzing uncertainties, manage risk, and evaluate/prioritize management actions associated with adapting to, and managing for, climate change (Moore et al . 2013). Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) is a species highly vulnerable to climate change in the Northeast Atlantic (Hare et al . 2016a). Based on this and the above reasons, a scenario planning initiative was piloted by NOAA Fisheries to explore what the agency can do to improve U.S.Atlantic salmon population resilience to changing climate conditions in riverine, estuarine(transition), and marine environments across its current range (U.S. headwaters to Greenland). Project objectives were: 1) to better understand the challenges of managing Atlantic salmon in a changing climate; 2) to identify and discuss potential management actions and research activities that can be undertaken to increase our understanding of the drivers of Atlantic salmon productivity and resilience; 3) to increase collaborations and coordination related to the speciesrecovery; and 4) to explore how scenario planning can be used to support decisions. Outcomes from this initiative included, but were not limited to, the identification of high priority research and management actions to further collaborations and efforts to recover this species. The identified high priority actions were those that could be undertaken in the near-term(1-5 years) using current resources and in consideration of potential future conditions. Examples of identified actions by habitat (not in order of priority) included: 1) synthesize and refine range-wide life stage specific quantitative environmental thresholds for temperature, flow, etc.; 2) assess watershed habitat productivity; 3) assess forage fish and survival connection and options for marine migration monitoring; and 4) reduce dam-associated indirect estuarine mortality rate. In addition, a number of high priority climate-related actions were included in the revised Atlantic Salmon Recovery Plan (USFWS and NMFS 2019, Appendix 16) and at least two newly NOAA Fisheries funded projects are now underway (1. conduct range-wide habitat analysis and synthesize life stage specific quantitative thresholds and 2. identify locations of cold water refugia under a changing climate). This is the first use of the scenario planning process (NPS 2013) by NOAA Fisheries. This report documents an important example of applying scenario planning to marine species/environments and may serve as a useful reference for other case studies.

Atlantic Ocean↗
USGS2011

Land management in the Anthropocene: Is history still relevant?

Ecological restoration, conservation, and land management are often based on comparisons with reference sites or time periods, which are assumed to represent “natural” or “properly functioning” conditions. Such reference conditions can provide a vision of the conservation or management goal and a means to measure progress toward that vision. Although historical ecology has been used successfully to guide resource management in many parts of the world, the continuing relevance of history is now being questioned. Some scientists doubt that lessons from the past can inform management in what may be a dramatically different future, given profound climate change, accelerated land use, and an onslaught of plant and animal invasions.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2006

Late Quaternary landscape evolution in the Kunlun Mountains and Qaidam Basin, Northern Tibet: A framework for examining the links between glaciation, lake level changes and alluvial fan formation

The Qaidam Basin in Northern Tibet is one of the largest hyper-arid intermontane basins on Earth. Alluvial fans, pediment surfaces, shorelines and a thick succession of sediments within the basin, coupled with moraines and associated landforms in the adjacent high mountain catchments of the Kunlun Mountains, record a complex history of Late Quaternary paleoenvironmental change and landscape evolution. The region provides an ideal natural laboratory to examine the interaction between tectonics and climate within a continent-continent collision zone, and to quantify rates of landscape evolution as controlled by climate and the associated glacial and hydrological changes in hyper-arid and adjacent high-altitude environments. Geomorphic mapping, analysis of landforms and sediments, and terrestrial cosmogenic radionuclide surface exposure and optically stimulated luminescence dating serve to define the timing of formation of Late Quaternary landforms along the southern and northwestern margins of the Qaidam Basin, and in the Burhan Budai Shan of the Kunlun Mountains adjacent to the basin on the south. These dates provide a framework that suggests links between climatic amelioration, deglaciation, lake desiccation and alluvial fan evolution. At least three glacial advances are defined in the Burham Budai Shan of the Kunlun Mountains. On the northern side of this range these occurred in the penultimate glacial cycle or early in the last glacial cycle, during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)/Lateglacial and during the Holocene. On the south side of the range, advances occurred during the penultimate glacial cycle, MIS-3, and possibly the LGM, Lateglacial or Holocene. Several distinct phases of alluvial fan sedimentation are likewise defined. Alluvial fans formed on the southern side of the Kunlun Mountains prior to 200 ka. Ice-contact alluvial fans formed during the penultimate glacial and during MIS-3. Extensive incised alluvial fans that form the main valley fills north of the Burham Budai and extend into the Qaidam Basin are dated to ???30 ka. These ages suggest that there was a period of alluvial fan aggradation and valley filling that persisted until desiccation of the large lakes in the Qaidam Basin post ???30 ka led to base level lowering and active incision of streams into the valley fills. The continued Lateglacial and Holocene desiccation likely led to further degradation of the valley fills. Ice wedge casts in the Qaidam Basin date to ???15 ka, indicating significant Lateglacial climatic amelioration, while Holocene loess deposits north of the Burham Bdudai suggest that aridity has increased in the region since the early Holocene. From these observations, we infer that the major landscape changes within high glaciated mountains and their adjacent hyper-arid intermontane basins, such as the Kunlun Mountains and Qaidam Basin, occur rapidly over millennial timescales during periods of climatic instability. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA.

Quaternary International↗
USGS2019

A multidisciplinary coastal vulnerability assessment for local government focused on ecosystems, Santa Barbara area, California

Incorporating coastal ecosystems in climate adaptation planning is needed to maintain the well-being of both natural and human systems. Our vulnerability study uses a multidisciplinary approach to evaluate climate change vulnerability of an urbanized coastal community that could serve as a model approach for communities worldwide, particularly in similar Mediterranean climates. We synthesize projected changes in climate, coastal erosion and flooding, watershed runoff and impacts to two important coastal ecosystems, sandy beaches and coastal salt marshes. Using downscaled climate models along with other regional models, we find that temperature, extreme heat events, and sea level are expected to increase in the future, along with more intense rainfall events, despite a negligible change in annual rainfall. Consequently, more droughts are expected but the magnitude of larger flood events will increase. Associated with the continuing rise of mean sea level, extreme coastal water levels will occur with increasingly greater magnitudes and frequency. Severe flooding will occur for both natural (wetlands, beaches) and built environments (airport, harbor, freeway, and residential areas). Adaptation actions can reduce the impact of rising sea level, which will cause losses of sandy beach zones and salt marsh habitats that support the highest biodiversity in these ecosystems, including regionally rare and endangered species, with substantial impacts occurring by 2050. Providing for inland transgression of coastal habitats, effective sediment management, reduced beach grooming and removal of shoreline armoring are adaptations that would help maintain coastal ecosystems and the beneficial services they provide.

California↗
USGS2018

Drought and fire in the western USA: Is climate attribution enough?

Purpose of Review I sought to review the contributions of recent literature and prior foundational papers to our understanding of drought and fire. In this review, I summarize recent literature on drought and fire in the western USA and discuss research directions that may increase the utility of that body of work for twenty-first century application. I then describe gaps in the synthetic knowledge of drought-driven fire in managed ecosystems and use concepts from use-inspired research to describe potentially useful extensions of current work. Recent Findings Fire responses to climate, and specifically various kinds of drought, are clear, but vary widely with fuel responses to surplus water and drought at different timescales. Ecological and physical factors interact with human management and ignitions to create fire regime and landscape trajectories that challenge prediction. Summary The mechanisms by which the climate system affects regional droughts and how they translate to fire in the western USA need more attention to accelerate both forecasting and adaptation. However, projections of future fire activity under climate change will require integrated advances on both fronts to achieve decision-relevant modeling. Concepts from transdisciplinary research and coupled human-natural systems can help frame strategic work to address fire in a changing world.

Current Climate Change Reports↗
USGS2023

A conceptual workflow for projecting future riverine and coastal flood hazards to support the federal flood risk management standard

In 2021, the reinstatement of the Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (FFRMS) required federally funded projects to recognize potential increases in flood hazards over their service lives due to climate change or local anthropogenic perturbations. Recognizing that the state of the science had advanced since the implementation guidelines for this standard were published in 2015 (WRC, 2015, Appendix H), an interagency state-of-the-science review committee conceptualized a workflow to guide the mapping and risk communication of projected future flood hazards in both riverine and coastal settings. This five-element workflow connects climate, hydrologic, and hydraulic models, incorporates land and water management impacts and ongoing geomorphic changes, and can be tailored to the unique nature of different agency needs and resources. These conceptual workflows also provide a basis for a Climate-Informed Science Approach (CISA) implementation roadmap that identifies incremental steps for addressing the research and data gaps elucidated in our review. Many of these incremental steps present opportunities for interagency collaboration that would facilitate the rollout of the FFRMS in diverse riverine and coastal settings of the United States. We conduct case-study thought experiments to evaluate the implementation of the riverine and coastal workflows at three different locations in the United States: central Indiana, Galveston, Texas, and a small coastal community in western Alaska (Shaktoolik). Our thought experiments consider different project horizons, data availability, failure consequences, technical training requirements, and computational resources.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2018

Executive summary. In Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report

Central to life on Earth, carbon is essential to the molecular makeup of all living things and plays a key role in regulating global climate. To understand carbon’s role in these processes, researchers measure and evaluate carbon stocks and fluxes. A stock is the quantity of carbon contained in a pool or reservoir in the Earth system (e.g., carbon in forest trees), and a flux is the direction and rate of carbon’s transfer between pools (e.g., the movement of carbon from the atmosphere into forest trees during photosynthesis). This document, the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2), examines the patterns of carbon stocks and fluxes—collectively called the “carbon cycle.” Emphasis is given to these patterns in specific sectors (e.g., agriculture and energy) and ecosystems (e.g., forests and coastal waters) and to the response of the carbon cycle to human activity. The purpose of SOCCR2 is to assess the current state of the North American carbon cycle and to present recent advances in understanding the factors that influence it. Concentrating on North America—Canada, the United States, and Mexico—the report describes carbon cycling for air, land, inland waters (streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs), and coastal waters (see Figure ES.1, p. 23). The questions framing the publication A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan (Michalak et al., 2011) inspired development of three slightly modified questions that guide SOCCR2’s content and focus on North America in a global context: How have natural processes and human actions affected the global carbon cycle on land, in the atmosphere, in the ocean and other aquatic systems, and at ecosystem interfaces (e.g., coastal, wetland, and urban-rural)? How have socioeconomic trends affected atmospheric levels of the primary carbon-containing gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)? How have species, ecosystems, natural resources, and human systems been impacted by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, associated changes in climate, and carbon management decisions and practices? SOCCR2 synthesizes the most recent understanding of carbon cycling in North America, assessing new carbon cycle findings and information, the state of knowledge regarding core methods used to study the carbon cycle, and future research needed to best inform carbon management and policy options. Focusing on scientific developments in the decade since the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR1; CCSP 2007), SOCCR2 summarizes the past, current, and projected state of carbon sources, sinks, and natural processes, as well as contributions by human activities. In addition to CO2 and CH4, the report sometimes discusses nitrous oxide (N2O), a GHG associated with activities and processes that affect fluxes of carbon gases.1 SOCCR2 also describes improvements in analysis tools; developments in decision support; and new insights into ecosystem carbon cycling, human causes of changes in the carbon cycle, and social science perspectives on carbon. Since publication of SOCCR1, coordinated research from agencies in the three North American countries has enabled innovative observational, analytical, and modeling capabilities to further advance understanding of the North American carbon cycle (see Appendix D: Carbon Measurement Approaches and Accounting Frameworks, p. 834). Some of the report’s main conclusions, based on the Key Findings of each chapter, are highlighted in Box ES.1, Main Findings of SOCCR2, p. 24.

Report↗
USGS2013

Historical methane hydrate project review

In 1995, U.S. Geological Survey made the first systematic assessment of the volume of natural gas stored in the hydrate accumulations of the United States. That study, along with numerous other studies, has shown that the amount of gas stored as methane hydrates in the world greatly exceeds the volume of known conventional gas resources. However, gas hydrates represent both a scientific and technical challenge and much remains to be learned about their characteristics and occurrence in nature. Methane hydrate research in recent years has mostly focused on: (1) documenting the geologic parameters that control the occurrence and stability of gas hydrates in nature, (2) assessing the volume of natural gas stored within various gas hydrate accumulations, (3) analyzing the production response and characteristics of methane hydrates, (4) identifying and predicting natural and induced environmental and climate impacts of natural gas hydrates, and (5) analyzing the effects of methane hydrate on drilling safety. Methane hydrates are naturally occurring crystalline substances composed of water and gas, in which a solid water-­‐lattice holds gas molecules in a cage-­‐like structure. The gas and water becomes a solid under specific temperature and pressure conditions within the Earth, called the hydrate stability zone. Other factors that control the presence of methane hydrate in nature include the source of the gas included within the hydrates, the physical and chemical controls on the migration of gas with a sedimentary basin containing methane hydrates, the availability of the water also included in the hydrate structure, and the presence of a suitable host sediment or “reservoir”. The geologic controls on the occurrence of gas hydrates have become collectively known as the “methane hydrate petroleum system”, which has become the focus of numerous hydrate research programs. Recognizing the importance of methane hydrate research and the need for a coordinated effort, the U.S. Congress enacted Public Law 106-­‐193, the Methane Hydrate Research and Development Act of 2000. This Act called for the Secretary of Energy to begin a methane hydrate research and development program in consultation with other U.S. federal agencies. At the same time a new methane hydrate research program had been launched in Japan by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry to develop plans for a methane hydrate exploratory drilling project in the Nankai Trough. Since this early start we have seen other countries including India, China, Canada, and the Republic of Korea establish large gas hydrate research and development programs. These national led efforts have also included the investment in a long list of important scientific research drilling expeditions and production test studies that have provided a wealth of information on the occurrence of methane hydrate in nature. The most notable expeditions and projects have including the following: -­‐Ocean Drilling Program Leg 164 (1995) -­‐Japan Nankai Trough Project (1999-­‐2000) -­‐Ocean Drilling Program Leg 204 (2004) -­‐Japan Tokai-­‐oki to Kumano-­‐nada Project (2004) -­‐Gulf of Mexico JIP Leg I (2005) -­‐Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 311 (2005) -­‐Malaysia Gumusut-­‐Kakap Project (2006) -­‐India NGHP Expedition 01 (2006) -­‐China GMGS Expedition 01 (2007) -­‐Republic of Korea UBGH Expedition 01 (2007) -­‐Gulf of Mexico JIP Leg II (2009) -­‐Republic of Korea UBGH Expedition 02 (2010) -­‐MH-­‐21 Nankai Trough Pre-­‐Production Expedition (2012-­‐2013) -­‐Mallik Gas Hydrate Testing Projects (1998/2002/2007-­‐2008) -­‐Alaska Mount Elbert Stratigraphic Test Well (2007) -­‐Alaska Iġnik Sikumi Methane Hydrate Production Test Well (2011-­‐2012) Research coring and seismic programs carried out by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP), starting with the ODP Leg 164 drilling of the Blake Ridge in the Atlantic Ocean in 1995, have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the geologic controls on the formation, occurrence, and stability of gas hydrates in marine environments. For the most part methane hydrate research expeditions carried out by the ODP and IODP provided the foundation for our scientific understanding of gas hydrates. The methane hydrate research efforts under ODP-­‐IODP have mostly dealt with the assessment of the geologic controls on the occurrence of gas hydrate, with a specific goal to study the role methane hydrates may play in the global carbon cycle. Over the last 10 years, national led methane hydrate research programs, along with industry interest have led to the development and execution of major methane hydrate production field test programs. Two of the most important production field testing programs have been conducted at the Mallik site in the Mackenzie River Delta of Canada and in the Eileen methane hydrate accumulation on the North Slope of Alaska. Most recently we have also seen the completion of the world’s first marine methane hydrate production test in the Nankai Trough in the offshore of Japan. Industry interest in gas hydrates has also included important projects that have dealt with the assessment of geologic hazards associated with the presence of hydrates. The scientific drilling and associated coring, logging, and borehole monitoring technologies developed in the long list of methane hydrate related field studies are one of the most important developments and contributions associated with methane hydrate research and development activities. Methane hydrate drilling has been conducted from advanced scientific drilling platforms like the JOIDES Resolution and the D/V Chikyu, which feature highly advanced integrated core laboratories and borehole logging capabilities. Hydrate research drilling has also included the use of a wide array of industry, geotechnical and multi-­‐service ships. All of which have been effectively used to collect invaluable geologic and engineering data on the occurrence of methane hydrates throughout the world. Technologies designed specifically for the collection and analysis of undisturbed methane hydrate samples have included the development of a host of pressure core systems and associated specialty laboratory apparatus. The study and use of both wireline conveyed and logging-­‐while-­‐drilling technologies have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the in-­‐situ nature of hydrate-­‐bearing sediments. Recent developments in borehole instrumentation specifically designed to monitor changes associated with hydrates in nature through time or to evaluate the response of hydrate accumulations to production have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the complex nature and evolution of methane hydrate systems. Our understanding of how methane hydrates occur and behave in nature is still growing and evolving – we do not yet know if methane hydrates can be economically produced, nor do we know fully the role of hydrates as an agent of climate change or as a geologic hazard. But it is known for certain that scientific drilling has contributed greatly to our understanding of hydrates in nature and will continue to be a critical source of the information to advance our understanding of methane hydrates.

Report↗
USGS2021

Integrated hydrology and operations modeling to evaluate climate change impacts in an agricultural valley irrigated with snowmelt runoff

Applying models to developed agricultural regions remains a difficult problem because there are no existing modeling codes that represent both the complex physics of the hydrology and anthropogenic manipulations to water distribution and consumption. We apply an integrated groundwater – surface water and hydrologic river operations model to an irrigated river valley in northwestern Nevada/northern California, United States to evaluate the impacts of climate change on snow-fed agricultural systems that use surface water and groundwater conjunctively. We explicitly represent individual surface water rights within the hydrologic model and allow the integrated code to change river diversions in response to earlier snowmelt runoff and water availability. Historically under-used supplemental groundwater rights are dynamically activated within the model to offset diminished surface water deliveries. The model accounts for feedbacks between the natural hydrology and anthropogenic stresses, which is a first-of-its-kind assessment of the impacts of climate change on individual water rights, and more broadly on river basin operations. Earlier snowmelt decreases annual surface water deliveries to all water rights, not just the junior water rights, owing to a lack of surface water storage in the upper river basin capable of capturing earlier runoff. Conversely, downstream irrigators with access to reservoir storage benefit from earlier runoff flowing past upstream points of diversion prior to the start of the irrigation season. Despite regional shifts toward greater reliance on groundwater for irrigation, crop consumption (a common surrogate for crop yield) decreases due to spatiotemporal changes in water supply that preferentially impact a subset of growers in the region.

California↗
USGS2013

Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: Salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change-induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970–2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh–mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape-scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh-to-mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2010

U.S. Geological Survey activities related to American Indians and Alaska Natives: Fiscal years 2007 and 2008

In the late 1800s, John Wesley Powell, the second director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), followed his interest in the tribes of the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau and studied their cultures, languages, and surroundings. From that early time, the USGS has recognized the importance of Native knowledge and living in harmony with nature as complements to the USGS mission to better understand the Earth. Combining traditional ecological knowledge with empirical studies allows the USGS and Native American governments, organizations, and people to increase their mutual understanding and respect for this land. The USGS is the earth and natural science bureau within the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and is not responsible for regulations or land management. Climate change is a major current issue affecting Native lives and traditions throughout the United States. Climate projections for the coming century indicate an increasing probability for more frequent and more severe droughts in the Southwest, including the Navajo Nation. Erosion has claimed Native homes in Alaska. Fish have become inedible due to diseases that turn their flesh mushy. Native people who rely on or who are culturally sustained by hunting, fishing, and using local plants are living with climate change now. The traditional knowledge of Native peoples enriches and confirms the work of USGS scientists. The results are truly synergistic-greater than the sum of their parts. Traditional ecological knowledge is respected and increasingly used in USGS studies-when the holders of that knowledge choose to share it. The USGS respects the rights of Native people to maintain their patrimony of traditional ecological knowledge. The USGS studies can help Tribes, Native organizations, and natural resource professionals manage Native lands and resources with the best available unbiased data and information that can be added to their traditional knowledge. Wise Native leaders have noted that traditional ecological knowledge includes the connections between Earth and her denizens. From this perspective, it is the connections among these ?relatives? that needs to be nurtured. This perspective on nature is finding new adherents among Natives and non-Natives as understanding of climate change and other environmental conditions deepens. Although this report uses the term ?resources,? the USGS, through its interdisciplinary research, acknowledges the interconnectedness of the Earth and the things that live upon it.

Circular↗
USGS2011

Vulnerability of high-latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance

This synthesis addresses the vulnerability of the North American high-latitude soil organic carbon (SOC) pool to climate change. Disturbances caused by climate warming in arctic, subarctic, and boreal environments can result in significant redistribution of C among major reservoirs with potential global impacts. We divide the current northern high-latitude SOC pools into (1) near-surface soils where SOC is affected by seasonal freeze-thaw processes and changes in moisture status, and (2) deeper permafrost and peatland strata down to several tens of meters depth where SOC is usually not affected by short-term changes. We address key factors (permafrost, vegetation, hydrology, paleoenvironmental history) and processes (C input, storage, decomposition, and output) responsible for the formation of the large high-latitude SOC pool in North America and highlight how climate-related disturbances could alter this pool's character and size. Press disturbances of relatively slow but persistent nature such as top-down thawing of permafrost, and changes in hydrology, microbiological communities, pedological processes, and vegetation types, as well as pulse disturbances of relatively rapid and local nature such as wildfires and thermokarst, could substantially impact SOC stocks. Ongoing climate warming in the North American high-latitude region could result in crossing environmental thresholds, thereby accelerating press disturbances and increasingly triggering pulse disturbances and eventually affecting the C source/sink net character of northern high-latitude soils. Finally, we assess postdisturbance feedbacks, models, and predictions for the northern high-latitude SOC pool, and discuss data and research gaps to be addressed by future research.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2012

Threshold effects of flood duration on the vegetation and soils of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, USA

Most large rivers have experienced major changes in hydrology and land use over the past century, with concomitant effects on sedimentation, nutrient cycling and biodiversity. To restore and/or enhance these ecosystems, managers need to know where their efforts are most likely to succeed under current hydrologic regimes as well as under potential future hydrologic regimes. We therefore examined changes in forest vegetation and soils across a hydrologic gradient, expressed as flood duration during the growing season, for 320 km of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) floodplain. Soil texture was highly variable but trended toward finer grained sediments and >5% organic matter as flood duration increased from 0% to ~40% of the growing season. Beyond 40%, soil texture was exclusively silt plus clay with >5% organic matter. The diversity of both the understory and overstory tree communities was also highly variable at sites that flooded for <40% of the growing season. However, understory diversity decreased as flood duration increased from 0% to ~25% of the growing season and overstory diversity declined as flood duration increased from 0% to ~40% of the growing season. Diversity estimates for both strata were uniformly low at sites that flooded for longer than ~40% of the growing season. Beyond this point the proportional abundance of Acer saccharinum in the overstory exceeded 70%. Our results suggest that there is a threshold along the elevation gradient of this floodplain, corresponding with flood durations lasting ~40% of the growing season. At lower elevation sites, flooding exerts primary control over forest soils and vegetation, restricting the former to silt plus clay with higher organic matter and the latter to a few highly flood tolerant species. The existence of such thresholds have implications for management of floodplain soil nutrient dynamics and plant diversity under existing hydrologic regimes, more natural hydrologic regimes and more extreme hydrologic regimes that may result from climate change.

Iowa;Minnesota;Wisconsin↗
USGS2019

To what extent is drought-induced tree mortality a natural phenomenon?

Aim Catastrophic forest mortality due to more extreme rainfall deficits and higher temperatures under future climate scenarios has been predicted. The aim of this study is to explore the magnitude of historical drought-induced tree mortality under pre-warming conditions. Location North-eastern Australia. Time period 1845–2017. Major taxa studied Trees. Methods Field survey, historical analysis and climate analysis. Results We present evidence of 18%–30% tree mortality from recent droughts across three regions of north-eastern Australia with rainfall deficits less severe than earlier historical droughts. The corrected temperature record represents modest warming at the stations with long records in the vicinity of the study areas. In terms of rainfall deficit the most severe drought on record occurred in the early 20th century, and historical evidence confirms that this drought and earlier droughts before the advent of pastoralism coincided with substantial tree mortality. Main conclusions Dramatic declines in woody biomass in response to drought historically occurred more than once a century and are a natural phenomenon in semi-arid Australia. The magnitude of drought-induced tree mortality under natural climate fluctuations requires further investigation in other continents. Widespread drought-induced tree mortality is not just a recent global change phenomenon and has been underestimated as a natural ecological process. However, even more severe forest die-off events from more extreme hotter droughts are predicted if Earth’s warming proceeds as currently projected.

Queensland↗
USGS2010

Climate change, cranes, and temperate floodplain ecosystems

Floodplain ecosystems provide important habitat to cranes globally. Lateral, longitudinal, vertical, and temporal hydrologic connectivity in rivers is essential to maintaining the functions and values of these systems. Agricultural development, flood control, water diversions, dams, and other anthropogenic activities have greatly affected hydrologic connectivity of river systems worldwide and altered the functional capacity of these systems. Although the specific effects of climate change in any given area are unknown, increased intensity and frequency of flooding and droughts and increased air and water temperatures are among many potential effects that can act synergistically with existing human modifications in these systems to create even greater challenges in maintaining ecosystem productivity. In this paper, I review basic hydrologic and geomorphic processes of river systems and use three North American rivers (Guadalupe, Platte, and Rio Grande) that are important to cranes as case studies to illustrate the challenges facing managers tasked with balancing the needs of cranes and people in the face of an uncertain climatic future. Each river system has unique natural and anthropogenic characteristics that will affect conservation strategies. Mitigating the effects of climate change on river systems necessitates an understanding of river/floodplain/landscape linkages, which include people and their laws as well as existing floodplain ecosystem conditions.

Conference Paper↗