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At least 523 records · Page 29Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Spatially referenced models of streamflow and nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads in streams of the midwestern United States

In this report, SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models developed to describe long-term (2000–14) mean-annual streamflow, total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended-sediment (SS) transport in streams of the Midwestern part of the United States (the Mississippi River, Great Lakes, and Red River of the North Basins) are described. The nutrient and suspended-sediment models have a base year of 2012, which means they were developed based on source inputs and management practices similar to those existing during or near 2012 and average hydrological conditions detrended to 2012 (2000–14), whereas the streamflow model has base years of 2000–14, which means it was developed based on the average input precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration from 2000 to 2014. In developing the models, several updates and improvements were made to the data inputs and statistical approaches used to calibrate/develop the models from those used in the previous 2002 SPARROW models. The 2012 SPARROW models were constructed using a higher resolution stream network, which resulted in a mean catchment size of 2.7 square kilometers compared to 480 square kilometers in the 2002 models; more detailed and updated wastewater treatment plant contribution estimates; inputs from background phosphorus sources that were not included in the 2002 model; and more accurate loads for calibration that were computed using a modified Beale ratio-estimator technique whenever no trend in load was determined. Statistical approaches were added to compensate for the unequal effect of each monitoring site during the calibration process by adjusting for the fraction of the basin included in other upstream monitored sites (nested share) and thinning the calibration sites if a negative statistical correlation between nearby sites was determined. Results from 2012 SPARROW models describe how much of each water, TN, TP, and SS source was delivered to the stream network, and the major landscape factors that affected their delivery. Atmospheric deposition and natural (background) sources of TN and TP, respectively, were the dominant sources in anthropogenically unaffected areas (especially in the Rocky Mountains and north-central areas of the Midwest), whereas fertilizers, manure, and fixation were dominant sources in agricultural areas, especially in the Corn Belt and near the Mississippi River. Urban sources of TN and TP were typically localized, but they were still important for some large areas, especially the Lake Erie Basin. All of the land-to-water delivery variables in the nutrient and sediment SPARROW models, such as runoff, soil erodibility, basin slope, and the amount of tile drains, are commonly included in process-driven models. In the SPARROW TN and TP models, best management practices (BMPs) reduced the delivery of these nutrients to streams. Long-term mean-annual flows and nutrient and sediment loads were simulated in streams throughout the Midwest. The simulated flows from the SPARROW flow model were used in the SPARROW TN, TP, and SS models to help describe nutrient and sediment transport from the watershed and through the stream network. Outputs from the TN, TP, and SS models describe loads and yields of these constituents throughout the Midwest, and from major drainage basins throughout the Midwest. Highest TN, TP, and SS yields and delivered yields were from the Lake Erie, Ohio River, Upper Mississippi River, and Lower Mississippi River Basins, whereas lowest yields were spread over most other areas. Losses during downstream delivery resulted in part of the TN, TP, and SS that reach the stream network not reaching the downstream receiving bodies: 14, 15, and 28 percent of the TN, TP, and SS, respectively, are lost during delivery to the Great Lakes and 19, 23, and 52 percent of the TN, TP, and SS, respectively, are lost during delivery to the Gulf of Mexico. The largest losses of nutrients and sediments during transport were in the Missouri and Arkansas River Basins. Information from these SPARROW models can help guide nutrient and sediment reduction strategies throughout the Midwest. Model results provide information on what may be the most appropriate general type of actions to reduce total loading by describing the relative importance of each source, and where to most efficiently place the efforts to reduce loading by describing the distribution of nutrient and sediment loading. By implementing management efforts addressing the major sources of the loads in areas contributing the highest loads, it may be possible to reduce nutrient loading throughout the Mississippi River Basin and thus reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico; reduce nutrient loading into lakes, and thus reduce the occurrence of harmful algal blooms; and reduce sediment losses, and thus improve the benthic habitat in streams and rivers throughout the Midwest.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2016

Simulation of groundwater storage changes in the eastern Pasco Basin, Washington

The Miocene Columbia River Basalt Group and younger sedimentary deposits of lacustrine, fluvial, eolian, and cataclysmic-flood origins compose the aquifer system of the Pasco Basin in eastern Washington. Irrigation return flow and canal leakage from the Columbia Basin Project have caused groundwater levels to rise substantially in some areas, contributing to landslides along the Columbia River. Water resource managers are considering extraction of additional stored groundwater to supply increasing demand and possibly mitigate problems caused by the increased water levels. To help address these concerns, the transient groundwater model of the Pasco Basin documented in this report was developed to quantify the changes in groundwater flow and storage. The MODFLOW model uses a 1-kilometer finite-difference grid and is constrained by logs and water levels from 846 wells in the study area. Eight model layers represent five sedimentary hydrogeologic units and underlying basalt formations. Head‑dependent flux boundaries represent the Columbia and Snake Rivers to the west and south, respectively, underflow to and (or) from adjacent areas to the northeast, and discharge to agricultural drains, springs, and groundwater withdrawal wells. Specified flux boundaries represent recharge from infiltrated precipitation and anthropogenic sources, including irrigation return flow and leakage from water-distribution canals. The model was calibrated with the parameter ‑ estimation code PEST++ to groundwater levels measured from 1907 through 2013 and measured discharge to springs and estimated discharge to agricultural drains. Increased recharge since pre-development resulted in a 6.8 million acre-feet increase in storage in the 508-14 administrative area of the Pasco Basin. Four groundwater-management scenarios simulate the 7-year drawdown resulting from withdrawals in different locations. Withdrawals of 2 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) from a hypothetical well field in the upper Ringold Formation along the Columbia River could generate 30–70 feet of drawdown, which may reduce landslide susceptibility along the White Bluffs. Drawdowns resulting from a 1 Mgal/d withdrawal from wells screened in either Pasco gravels, upper Ringold Formation, or both Ringold Formation and underlying basalt are simulated in the other three scenarios, and differ because of the contrasting hydraulic conductivities within the screened intervals.

Washington↗
USGS2014

A precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow conditions in the Smith River watershed, Montana, water years 1996-2008

This report documents the construction of a precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow in the Smith River watershed, Montana. This Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, constructed in cooperation with the Meagher County Conservation District, can be used to examine the general hydrologic framework of the Smith River watershed, including quantification of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow; partitioning of streamflow between surface runoff and subsurface flow; and quantifying contributions to streamflow from several parts of the watershed. The model was constructed by using spatial datasets describing watershed topography, the streams, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. Time-series data (daily total precipitation, and daily minimum and maximum temperature) were input to the model to simulate daily streamflow. The model was calibrated for water years 2002–2007 and evaluated for water years 1996–2001. Though water year 2008 was included in the study period to evaluate water-budget components, calibration and evaluation data were unavailable for that year. During the calibration and evaluation periods, simulated-natural flow values were compared to reconstructed-natural streamflow data. These reconstructed-natural streamflow data were calculated by adding Bureau of Reclamation’s depletions data to the observed streamflows. Reconstructed-natural streamflows represent estimates of streamflows for water years 1996–2007 assuming there was no agricultural water-resources development in the watershed. Additional calibration targets were basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration. The model estimated the hydrologic processes in the Smith River watershed during the calibration and evaluation periods. Simulated-natural mean annual and mean monthly flows generally were the same or higher than the reconstructed-natural streamflow values during the calibration period, whereas they were lower during the evaluation period. The shape of the annual hydrographs for the simulated-natural daily streamflow values matched the shape of the hydrographs for the reconstructed-natural values for most of the calibration period, but daily streamflow values were underestimated during the evaluation period for water years 1996–1998. The model enabled a detailed evaluation of the components of the water budget within the Smith River watershed during the water year 1996–2008 study period. During this study period, simulated mean annual precipitation across the Smith River watershed was 16 inches, out of which 14 inches evaporated or transpired and 2 inches left the basin as streamflow. Per the precipitation-runoff model simulations, during most of the year, surface runoff rarely (less than 2 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008) makes up more than 10 percent of the total streamflow. Subsurface flow (the combination of interflow and groundwater flow) makes up most of the total streamflow (99 or more percent of total streamflow for 71 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008).

Montana↗
USGS2013

Geospace environment modeling 2008--2009 challenge: D st index

This paper reports the metrics-based results of the D st index part of the 2008–2009 GEM Metrics Challenge. The 2008–2009 GEM Metrics Challenge asked modelers to submit results for four geomagnetic storm events and five different types of observations that can be modeled by statistical, climatological or physics-based models of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. We present the results of 30 model settings that were run at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center and at the institutions of various modelers for these events. To measure the performance of each of the models against the observations, we use comparisons of 1 hour averaged model data with the D st index issued by the World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto, Japan, and direct comparison of 1 minute model data with the 1 minute D st index calculated by the United States Geological Survey. The latter index can be used to calculate spectral variability of model outputs in comparison to the index. We find that model rankings vary widely by skill score used. None of the models consistently perform best for all events. We find that empirical models perform well in general. Magnetohydrodynamics-based models of the global magnetosphere with inner magnetosphere physics (ring current model) included and stand-alone ring current models with properly defined boundary conditions perform well and are able to match or surpass results from empirical models. Unlike in similar studies, the statistical models used in this study found their challenge in the weakest events rather than the strongest events.

Space Weather↗
USGS2014

"Report a Landslide” A website to engage the public in identifying geologic hazards

Direct observation by people is the most practical way of identifying, locating, and describing most damaging landslides. In an effort to increase public awareness of landslide hazards and encourage public participation in collecting basic data about landslides, the USGS recently launched a website called “Report a landslide.” The website is modeled in part after the highly successful USGS website “Did you feel it?” which has been used for several years to gather data from the public about intensity of felt earthquakes. The new “Report a landslide” website encourages visitors to report where and when they observed a landslide and to classify the landslide by movement type. Interested users also can report information about damage and casualties, dimensions, and simple geological observations, and can submit photographs of the landslide. Once a user submits a report, the location of the reported landslide appears on a map, and the location is linked to a summary of submitted data. Photos are reviewed prior to posting on the event page. By adding existing USGS data from historical landslides and promoting the website in the wake of large, regional landslide events, we hope to generate widespread awareness and interest in the website. The “Report a landslide” site has great potential for eventually creating a nationwide source of basic landslide data.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1988

The Geology and Remarkable Thermal Activity of Norris Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming

Norris Geyser Basin, normally shortened to Norris Basin, is adjacent to the north rim of the Yellowstone caldera at the common intersection of the caldera rim and the Norris-Mammoth Corridor, a zone of faults, volcanic vents, and thermal activity that strikes north from the caldera rim to Mammoth Hot Springs. An east-west fault zone terminates the Gallatin Range at its southern end and extends from Hebgen Lake, west of the park, to Norris Basin. No local evidence exists at the surface in Norris Basin for the two oldest Yellowstone volcanic caldera cycles (~2.0 and 1.3 m.y.B.P.). The third and youngest cycle formed the Yellowstone caldera, which erupted the 600,000-year-old Lava Creek Tuff. No evidence is preserved of hydrothermal activity near Norris Basin during the first 300,000.years after the caldera collapse. Glaciation probably removed most of the early evidence, but erratics of hot-spring sinter that had been converted diagenetically to extremely hard, resistant chalcedonic sinter are present as cobbles in and on some moraines and till from the last two glacial stages, here correlated with the early and late stages of the Pinedale glaciation <150,000 years B.P.). Indirect evidence for the oldest hydrothermal system at Norris Basin indicates an age probably older than both stages of Pinedale glaciation. Stream deposits consisting mainly of rounded quartz phenocrysts of the Lava Creek Tuff were subaerial, perhaps in part windblown and redeposited by streams. A few small rounded pebbles are interpreted as chalcedonic sinter of a still older cycle. None of these are precisely dated but are unlikely to be more than 150,000 to 200,000 years old. ...Most studies of active hydrothermal areas have noted chemical differences in fluids and alteration products but have given little attention to differences and models to explain evolution in types. This report, in contrast, emphasizes the kinds of changes in vents and their changing chemical types of waters and then provides models for explaining these differences. Norris Basin is probably not an independent volcanic-hydrothermal system. The basin and nearby acid-leached areas (from oxidation of H2S-enriched vapor) are best considered as parts of the same system, extending from Norris Basin to Roaring Mountain and possibly to Mammoth. If so, are they parts of a single large system centered within the Yellowstone caldera, or are Norris Basin and the nearby altered areas both parts of one or more young independent corridor systems confined, at least in the shallow crust, to the Norris-Mammoth Corridor? Tentatively, we favor the latter relation, probably having evolved in the past ~300,000 years. A model for large, long-lived, volcanic-hydrothermal activity is also suggested, involving all of the crust and upper mantle and using much recent geophysical data bearing on crust-mantle interrelations. Our model for large systems is much superior to previous suggestions for explaining continuing hydrothermal activity over hundreds of thousands of years, but is less attractive for the smaller nonhomogenized volcanic system actually favored here for the Norris-Mammoth Corridor.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2011

Simulation of specific conductance and chloride concentration in Abercorn Creek, Georgia, 2000-2009

The City of Savannah operates an industrial and domestic water-supply intake on Abercorn Creek approximately 2 miles from the confluence with the Savannah River upstream from the Interstate 95 bridge. Chloride concentrations are a major concern for the city because industrial customers require water with low chloride concentrations, and elevated chloride concentrations require additional water treatment in order to meet those needs. The proposed deepening of Savannah Harbor could increase chloride concentrations (the major ion in seawater) in the upper reaches of the lower Savannah River estuary, including Abercorn Creek. To address this concern, mechanistic and empirical modeling approaches were used to simulate chloride concentrations at the city's intake to evaluate potential effects from deepening the Savannah Harbor. The first approach modified the mechanistic Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model developed by Tetra Tech and used for evaluating proposed harbor deepening effects for the Environmental Impact Statement. Chloride concentrations were modeled directly with the EFDC model as a conservative tracer. This effort was done by Tetra Tech under a separate funding agreement with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and documented in a separate report. The second approach, described in this report, was to simulate chloride concentrations by developing empirical models from the available data using artificial neural network (ANN) and linear regression models. The empirical models used daily streamflow, specific conductance (field measurement for salinity), water temperature, and water color time series for inputs. Because there are only a few data points that describe the relation between high specific conductance values at the Savannah River at Interstate 95 and the water plant intake, there was a concern that these few data points would determine the extrapolation of the empirical model and potentially underestimate the effect of deepening the harbor on chloride concentrations at the intake. To accommodate these concerns, two ANN chloride models were developed for the intake. The first model (ANN M1e) used all the data. The second model (ANN M2e) only used data when specific conductance at Interstate 95 was less than 175 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius. Deleting the conductivity data greater than 175 microsiemens per centimeter removed the "plateau" effect observed in the data. The chloride simulations with the ANN M1 model have a low sensitivity to specific conductance (salinity) at Interstate 95, whereas the chloride simulations with the ANN M2 model have a high sensitivity to salinity at Interstate 95. The two modeling approaches (Tetra Tech's EFDC model and the one described in this report) were integrated into a decision support system (DSS) that combines the historical database, output from EFDC, ANN models, ANN model simulation controls, streaming graphics, and model output. The DSS was developed as a Microsoft ExcelTM/Visual Basic for Applications program, which allowed the DSS to be prototyped, easily modified, and distributed in a familiar spreadsheet format. The EFDC and ANN models were used to simulate various harbor deepening scenarios. To accommodate the geometry changes in the harbor, the ANN models used the EFDC model-simulated salinity changes for a historical condition as input. The DSS uses a graphical user interface and allows the user to interrogate the ANN models and EFDC output. Two scenarios were simulated using the Savannah Chloride Model DSS to demonstrate different input options. One scenario decreased winter streamflows to a constant streamflow for 45 days. Streamflows during the period January 1 to February 15 were set to a constant 3,600 cubic feet per second for the simulation period of October 1, 2006, to October 1, 2009. The decreased winter streamflow resulted in predictions of increased specific conductance by as much as 50 microsiemens per centimeter and chlorid

Georgia↗
USGS2025

Climate change impacts on plant communities in the sagebrush region—A science synthesis to inform Bureau of Land Management resource management

This report synthesizes current (2024) science-based knowledge related to the impacts of climate change on big sagebrush vegetation in Western North America. This effort was conducted through the U.S. Geological Survey working with the Bureau of Land Management as part of multiple science syntheses to aid management agencies developing environmental impacts assessments in response to human-related or caused events. This report reviews the potential impacts climate change may have on sagebrush vegetation and related management decisions. The body of the synthesis introduces the diverse impacts of climate change across the region by first focusing directly on what climate change may entail in terms of altered temperature and precipitation patterns. The report then discusses how these changes could likely affect individual plant species based on experimental results and scale the impacts to species distributions and community composition. The synthesis section ends by surveying efforts to model potential future changes in habitat. The report goes on to link the synthesis conclusions to individual land uses or land management decisions, such as forage resources, restoration or fuel treatment. Finally, the report provides a section that discusses the pros and cons of available datasets that model the potential future of vegetation in the sagebrush region.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗
USGS2018

Simulation of potential groundwater recharge for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, 1980–2011, using the Soil-Water-Balance Model

An understanding of the spatial and temporal extent of groundwater recharge is critical for many types of hydrologic assessments involving water quality, contaminant transport, ecosystem health, and sustainable use of groundwater. Annual potential groundwater recharge was simulated at a 1-kilometer resolution with the Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, from central Montana east to Maine, for calendar years 1980–2011. The SWB model used high resolution meteorological, land cover, and soil hydrology datasets that are nationally consistent and publicly available. The SWB model computed daily potential groundwater recharge as precipitation in excess of interception, runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil-water storage capacity. Daily potential recharge values within each year of the simulation were summed to produce annual potential recharge rates. Potential recharge as described in this report is water that infiltrates vertically below the plant rooting zone and is assumed to reach the water table. The calibrated SWB model in this report is called the glacial SWB model. Model calibration assumed that the area contributing to groundwater discharge equaled the surface watershed. The model was calibrated to stream base flows from 39 watersheds throughout the model domain that had hydrologic conditions appropriate for hydrograph separation. Base flows were calculated from daily streamflow records with the HYSEP local minimum hydrograph separation method The glacial SWB model reproduced the mean annual base-flow calibration targets well; the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient was 0.94, and the root mean squared error was 1.28 inches per year. The glacial SWB model provides insight into the spatial and temporal variability in potential annual recharge across the glacial aquifer system. About 20 percent of the active model area had an average potential recharge rate of less than 1 inch per year. Total precipitation, total recharge, and recharge as a percentage of precipitation increased from west to east. A substantial amount of the recharge water (39 percent) entering the glacial aquifer system travels through developed (urbanized) and agricultural landscapes, which are known to cause water-quality impairments. Regional climatic events, such as the 1988 to 1989 drought, are apparent in the potential recharge time series. Potential recharge generally increased across the glacial aquifer system between 2001 and 2011. A comparison of the potential recharge from the glacial SWB model to previous broad-scale recharge estimates reveals several important considerations for future SWB modeling applications. Shifts in the overall distribution of potential recharge between separate models can be explained by methods used to generate base-flow calibration target datasets. Spatial patterns in potential recharge simulated by SWB models are strongly dependent on the data and assumptions used to assign model cells to hydrologic soil groups. A review of several SWB models used to estimate groundwater recharge (and not surface runoff) revealed that model results are most sensitive to input climatic data, followed by surface runoff (curve number) and root-zone depth parameters.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2000

Documentation of a computer program to simulate lake-aquifer interaction using the MODFLOW ground water flow model and the MOC3D solute-transport model

Heads and flow patterns in surficial aquifers can be strongly influenced by the presence of stationary surface-water bodies (lakes) that are in direct contact, vertically and laterally, with the aquifer. Conversely, lake stages can be significantly affected by the volume of water that seeps through the lakebed that separates the lake from the aquifer. For these reasons, a set of computer subroutines called the Lake Package (LAK3) was developed to represent lake/aquifer interaction in numerical simulations using the U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional, finite-difference, modular ground-water flow model MODFLOW and the U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional method-of-characteristics solute-transport model MOC3D. In the Lake Package described in this report, a lake is represented as a volume of space within the model grid which consists of inactive cells extending downward from the upper surface of the grid. Active model grid cells bordering this space, representing the adjacent aquifer, exchange water with the lake at a rate determined by the relative heads and by conductances that are based on grid cell dimensions, hydraulic conductivities of the aquifer material, and user-specified leakance distributions that represent the resistance to flow through the material of the lakebed. Parts of the lake may become "dry" as upper layers of the model are dewatered, with a concomitant reduction in lake surface area, and may subsequently rewet when aquifer heads rise. An empirical approximation has been encoded to simulate the rewetting of a lake that becomes completely dry. The variations of lake stages are determined by independent water budgets computed for each lake in the model grid. This lake budget process makes the package a simulator of the response of lake stage to hydraulic stresses applied to the aquifer. Implementation of a lake water budget requires input of parameters including those representing the rate of lake atmospheric recharge and evaporation, overland runoff, and the rate of any direct withdrawal from, or augmentation of, the lake volume. The lake/aquifer interaction may be simulated in both transient and steady-state flow conditions, and the user may specify that lake stages be computed explicitly, semi-implicitly, or fully-implicitly in transient simulations. The lakes, and all sources of water entering the lakes, may have solute concentrations associated with them for use in solute-transport simulations using MOC3D. The Stream Package of MODFLOW-2000 and MOC3D represents stream connections to lakes, either as inflows or outflows. Because lakes with irregular bathymetry can exist as separate pools of water at lower stages, that coalesce to become a single body of water at higher stages, logic was added to the Lake Package to allow the representation of this process as a user option. If this option is selected, a system of linked pools (sublakes) is identified in each time step and stages are equalized based on current relative sublake surface areas.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2005

Hydrogeologic setting and conceptual hydrologic model of the Spring Creek Basin, Centre County, Pennsylvania, June 2005

The Spring Creek Basin, Centre County, Pa., is experiencing some of the most rapid growth and development within the Commonwealth. This trend has resulted in land-use changes and increased water use, which will affect the quantity and quality of stormwater runoff, surface water, ground water, and aquatic resources within the basin. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the ClearWater Conservancy (CWC), Spring Creek Watershed Community (SCWC), and Spring Creek Watershed Commission (SCWCm), has developed a Watershed Plan (Plan) to assist decision makers in water-resources planning. One element of the Plan is to provide a summary of the basin characteristics and a conceptual model that incorporates the hydrogeologic characteristics of the basin. The report presents hydrogeologic data for the basin and presents a conceptual model that can be used as the basis for simulating surface-water and ground-water flow within the basin. Basin characteristics; sources of data referenced in this text; physical characteristics such as climate, physiography, topography, and land use; hydrogeologic characteristics; and water-quality characteristics are discussed. A conceptual model is a simplified description of the physical components and interaction of the surface- and ground-water systems. The purpose for constructing a conceptual model is to simplify the problem and to organize the available data so that the system can be analyzed accurately. Simplification is necessary, because a complete accounting of a system, such as Spring Creek, is not possible. The data and the conceptual model could be used in development of a fully coupled numerical model that dynamically links surface water, ground water, and land-use changes. The model could be used by decision makers to manage water resources within the basin and as a prototype that is transferable to other watersheds.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2013

An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model

Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS1986

Hydrologic characteristics of soils in parts of Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas

Certain physical characteristics of soils, including permeability, available water capacity, thickness, and topographic position, have a definite effect on the hydrology of an area. They control the rate at which precipitation infiltrates or is transmitted through the soil, and thus they have a significant role in determining the rates both of ground-water recharge and surface runoff. In studies of ground-water hydrology, it commonly is useful to differentiate soils areally according to their physical characteristics and to assign values indicating the hydrologic responses of soils in the different areas. In 1980 the U.S. Geologic Surey began a study termed the “Central Midwest Region Aquifer System Analysis,” Jorgensen and Signor, 1981). The regional aquifer system is defined as including all aquifers of Cretaceous age or older in all or parts of nine States included in this report. For part of this analysis, use of a soil-moisture model is planned to obtain estimates of actual evapotranspiraion and recharge to the regional aquifer system. Data for the hydrologic characteristics of the soils in the study area are required as input to this soil-moisture model.

Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Ne↗
USGS2009

Volcanogenic Massive Sulfide Deposits of the World - Database and Grade and Tonnage Models

Grade and tonnage models are useful in quantitative mineral-resource assessments. The models and database presented in this report are an update of earlier publications about volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposits. These VMS deposits include what were formerly classified as kuroko, Cyprus, and Besshi deposits. The update was necessary because of new information about some deposits, changes in information in some deposits, such as grades, tonnages, or ages, revised locations of some deposits, and reclassification of subtypes. In this report we have added new VMS deposits and removed a few incorrectly classified deposits. This global compilation of VMS deposits contains 1,090 deposits; however, it was not our intent to include every known deposit in the world. The data was recently used for mineral-deposit density models (Mosier and others, 2007; Singer, 2008). In this paper, 867 deposits were used to construct revised grade and tonnage models. Our new models are based on a reclassification of deposits based on host lithologies: Felsic, Bimodal-Mafic, and Mafic volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits. Mineral-deposit models are important in exploration planning and quantitative resource assessments for two reasons: (1) grades and tonnages among deposit types vary significantly, and (2) deposits of different types occur in distinct geologic settings that can be identified from geologic maps. Mineral-deposit models combine the diverse geoscience information on geology, mineral occurrences, geophysics, and geochemistry used in resource assessments and mineral exploration. Globally based deposit models allow recognition of important features and demonstrate how common different features are. Well-designed deposit models allow geologists to deduce possible mineral-deposit types in a given geologic environment and economists to determine the possible economic viability of these resources. Thus, mineral-deposit models play a central role in presenting geoscience information in a useful form to policy makers. The foundation of mineral-deposit models is information about known deposits. The purpose of this publication is to present the latest geologic information and newly developed grade and tonnage models for VMS deposits in digital form. This publication contains computer files with information on VMS deposits from around the world. It also presents new grade and tonnage models for three subtypes of VMS deposits and a text file allowing locations of all deposits to be plotted in geographic information system (GIS) programs. The data are presented in FileMaker Pro and text files to make the information available to a wider audience. The value of this information and any derived analyses depends critically on the consistent manner of data gathering. For this reason, we first discuss the rules used in this compilation. Next, we provide new grade and tonnage models and analysis of the information in the file. Finally, the fields of the data file are explained. Appendix A gives the summary statistics for the new grade-tonnage models and Appendix B displays the country codes used in the database.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2010

Simulated effects of groundwater pumping and artificial recharge on surface-water resources and riparian vegetation in the Verde Valley sub-basin, Central Arizona

In the Verde Valley sub-basin, groundwater use has increased in recent decades. Residents and stakeholders in the area have established several groups to help in planning for sustainability of water and other resources of the area. One of the issues of concern is the effect of groundwater pumping in the sub-basin on surface water and on groundwater-dependent riparian vegetation. The Northern Arizona Regional Groundwater-Flow Model by Pool and others (in press) is the most comprehensive and up-to-date tool available to understand the effects of groundwater pumping in the sub-basin. Using a procedure by Leake and others (2008), this model was modified and used to calculate effects of groundwater pumping on surface-water flow and evapotranspiration for areas in the sub-basin. This report presents results for the upper two model layers for pumping durations of 10 and 50 years. Results are in the form of maps that indicate the fraction of the well pumping rate that can be accounted for as the combined effect of reduced surface-water flow and evapotranspiration. In general, the highest and most rapid responses to pumping were computed to occur near surface-water features simulated in the modified model, but results are not uniform along these features. The results are intended to indicate general patterns of model-computed response over large areas. For site-specific projects, improved results may require detailed studies of the local hydrologic conditions and a refinement of the modified model in the area of interest.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2015

Web based visualization of large climate data sets

We have implemented the USGS National Climate Change Viewer (NCCV), which is an easy-to-use web application that displays future projections from global climate models over the United States at the state, county and watershed scales. We incorporate the NASA NEX-DCP30 statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation for 30 global climate models being used in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and hydrologic variables we simulated using a simple water-balance model. Our application summarizes very large, complex data sets at scales relevant to resource managers and citizens and makes climate-change projection information accessible to users of varying skill levels. Tens of terabytes of high-resolution climate and water-balance data are distilled to compact binary format summary files that are used in the application. To alleviate slow response times under high loads, we developed a map caching technique that reduces the time it takes to generate maps by several orders of magnitude. The reduced access time scales to >500 concurrent users. We provide code examples that demonstrate key aspects of data processing, data exporting/importing and the caching technique used in the NCCV.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS1980

Research on interactive genetic-geological models to evaluate favourability for undiscovered uranium resources

Current methods of evaluating favourability for undiscovered uranium resources are unduly subjective, quite possibly inconsistent and, as a consequence, of questionable reliability. This research is aimed at reducing the subjectivity and increasing the reliability by designing an improved method that depends largely on geological data and their statistical frequency of occurrence. This progress report outlines a genetic approach to modelling the geological factors that controlled uranium mineralization in order to evaluate the favourability for the occurrence of undiscovered uranium deposits of the type modeled. A genetic model is constructed from all the factors that describe the processes, in chronological sequence, that formed uranium deposits thought to have a common origin. The field and laboratory evidence for the processes constitute a geologic occurrence base that parallels the chronological sequence of events. The genetic model and the geologic-occurrence base are portrayed as two columns of an interactive matrix called the "genetic-geologic model". For each column, eight chronological stages are used to describe the overall formation of the uranium deposits. These stages consist of (1) precursor processes; (2) host-rock formation; (3) preparation of host-rock; (4) uranium-source development; (5) transport of uranium; (6) primary uranium deposition; (7) post-deposition modification; and (8) preservation. To apply the genetic-geological model to evaluate favourability, a question is posed that determines the presence or absence of each attribute listed under the geologic-occurrence base. By building a logic circuit of the attributes according to either their essential or non-essential nature, the resultant match between a well-documented control area and the test area may be determined. The degree of match is a measure of favourability for uranium occurrence as hypothesized in the genetic model. This process of geological decision analysis results in a series of favourability maps that can be combined into a final composite favourability map.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1996

Progress report on daily flow-routing simulation for the Carson River, California and Nevada

A physically based flow-routing model using Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) was constructed for modeling streamflow in the Carson River at daily time intervals as part of the Truckee-Carson Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Daily streamflow data for water years 1978-92 for the mainstem river, tributaries, and irrigation ditches from the East Fork Carson River near Markleeville and West Fork Carson River at Woodfords down to the mainstem Carson River at Fort Churchill upstream from Lahontan Reservoir were obtained from several agencies and were compiled into a comprehensive data base. No previous physically based flow-routing model of the Carson River has incorporated multi-agency streamflow data into a single data base and simulated flow at a daily time interval. Where streamflow data were unavailable or incomplete, hydrologic techniques were used to estimate some flows. For modeling purposes, the Carson River was divided into six segments, which correspond to those used in the Alpine Decree that governs water rights along the river. Hydraulic characteristics were defined for 48 individual stream reaches based on cross-sectional survey data obtained from field surveys and previous studies. Simulation results from the model were compared with available observed and estimated streamflow data. Model testing demonstrated that hydraulic characteristics of the Carson River are adequately represented in the models for a range of flow regimes. Differences between simulated and observed streamflow result mostly from inadequate data characterizing inflow and outflow from the river. Because irrigation return flows are largely unknown, irrigation return flow percentages were used as a calibration parameter to minimize differences between observed and simulated streamflows. Observed and simulated streamflow were compared for daily periods for the full modeled length of the Carson River and for two major subreaches modeled with more detailed input data. Hydrographs and statistics presented in this report describe these differences. A sensitivity analysis of four estimated components of the hydrologic system evaluated which components were significant in the model. Estimated ungaged tributary streamflow is not a significant component of the model during low runoff, but is significant during high runoff. The sensitivity analysis indicates that changes in the estimated irrigation diversion and estimated return flow creates a noticeable change in the statistics. The modeling for this study is preliminary. Results of the model are constrained by current availability and accuracy of observed hydrologic data. Several inflows and outflows of the Carson River are not described by time-series data and therefore are not represented in the model.

Open-File Report↗