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At least 523 records · Page 29Linked to original sources
USGS2007

Waveform inversion of volcano-seismic signals for an extended source

[1] We propose a method to investigate the dimensions and oscillation characteristics of the source of volcano-seismic signals based on waveform inversion for an extended source. An extended source is realized by a set of point sources distributed on a grid surrounding the centroid of the source in accordance with the source geometry and orientation. The source-time functions for all point sources are estimated simultaneously by waveform inversion carried out in the frequency domain. We apply a smoothing constraint to suppress short-scale noisy fluctuations of source-time functions between adjacent sources. The strength of the smoothing constraint we select is that which minimizes the Akaike Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC). We perform a series of numerical tests to investigate the capability of our method to recover the dimensions of the source and reconstruct its oscillation characteristics. First, we use synthesized waveforms radiated by a kinematic source model that mimics the radiation from an oscillating crack. Our results demonstrate almost complete recovery of the input source dimensions and source-time function of each point source, but also point to a weaker resolution of the higher modes of crack oscillation. Second, we use synthetic waveforms generated by the acoustic resonance of a fluid-filled crack, and consider two sets of waveforms dominated by the modes with wavelengths 2 L /3 and 2 W /3, or L and 2 L /5, where W and L are the crack width and length, respectively. Results from these tests indicate that the oscillating signature of the 2 L /3 and 2 W /3 modes are successfully reconstructed. The oscillating signature of the L mode is also well recovered, in contrast to results obtained for a point source for which the moment tensor description is inadequate. However, the oscillating signature of the 2 L /5 mode is poorly recovered owing to weaker resolution of short-scale crack wall motions. The triggering excitations of the oscillating cracks are successfully reconstructed.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Postseismic relaxation and aftershocks

[1] Perfettini et al. (2005) suggested that the temporal dependence of surface displacements u ( t ) measured in the epicentral area following an earthquake is related to N ( t ), the cumulative number of aftershocks, by the equation u ( t ) = a + bt + cN ( t ) + d (1 − e − αt ), where a , b , c , d , and α are constants chosen to fit the data and t is the postearthquake time. N ( t ) appears in the expression for u ( t ) because both the aftershocks and a portion of u ( t ) are thought to be driven by the same source, postseismic fault creep at subseismogenic depths on the downdip extension of the coseismic rupture. We show that this equation with the actually observed N ( t ) fits the postseismic displacements recorded on several baselines following each of five earthquakes: 1999 M7.6 Chi-Chi (Taiwan), 1999 M7.1 Hector Mine (southern California), 2002 M7.9 Denali (central Alaska), 2003 M6.5 San Simeon (central California), and 2004 M6.0 Parkfield (central California) earthquakes. Although there are plausible physical interpretations for each of the terms in the expression for u ( t ), the large number of adjustable constants ( a , b , c , d , and α ) involved in fitting the rather simple postseismic displacements diminishes the significance of the fit. Because the observed N ( t ) is well fit by the modified Omori's law, fault creep at depth presumably exhibits the same temporal dependence. That dependence could be explained if the rheology of the fault downdip from the coseismic rupture is consistent with ordinary transient creep. Montesi (2004) demonstrated that power law creep across a shear zone at depth would also produce that temporal signal.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Structure of the California Coast Ranges and San Andreas Fault at SAFOD from seismic waveform inversion and reflection imaging

[1] A seismic reflection and refraction survey across the San Andreas Fault (SAF) near Parkfield provides a detailed characterization of crustal structure across the location of the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD). Steep-dip prestack migration and frequency domain acoustic waveform tomography were applied to obtain highly resolved images of the upper 5 km of the crust for 15 km on either side of the SAF. The resulting velocity model constrains the top of the Salinian granite with great detail. Steep-dip reflection seismic images show several strong-amplitude vertical reflectors in the uppermost crust near SAFOD that define an ∼2-km-wide zone comprising the main SAF and two or more local faults. Another prominent subvertical reflector at 2–4 km depth ∼9 km to the northeast of the SAF marks the boundary between the Franciscan terrane and the Great Valley Sequence. A deep seismic section of low resolution shows several reflectors in the Salinian crust west of the SAF. Two horizontal reflectors around 10 km depth correlate with strains of seismicity observed along-strike of the SAF. They represent midcrustal shear zones partially decoupling the ductile lower crust from the brittle upper crust. The deepest reflections from ∼25 km depth are interpreted as crust-mantle boundary.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Forecast experiment: do temporal and spatial b value variations along the Calaveras fault portend M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes?

The power law distribution of earthquake magnitudes and frequencies is a fundamental scaling relationship used for forecasting. However, can its slope (b value) be used on individual faults as a stress indicator? Some have concluded that b values drop just before large shocks. Others suggested that temporally stable low b value zones identify future large-earthquake locations. This study assesses the frequency of b value anomalies portending M ≥ 4.0 shocks versus how often they do not. I investigated M ≥ 4.0 Calaveras fault earthquakes because there have been 25 over the 37-year duration of the instrumental catalog on the most active southern half of the fault. With that relatively large sample, I conducted retrospective time and space earthquake forecasts. I calculated temporal b value changes in 5-km-radius cylindrical volumes of crust that were significant at 90% confidence, but these changes were poor forecasters of M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes. M ≥ 4.0 events were as likely to happen at times of high b values as they were at low ones. However, I could not rule out a hypothesis that spatial b value anomalies portend M ≥ 4.0 events; of 20 M ≥ 4 shocks that could be studied, 6 to 8 (depending on calculation method) occurred where b values were significantly less than the spatial mean, 1 to 2 happened above the mean, and 10 to 13 occurred within 90% confidence intervals of the mean and were thus inconclusive. Thus spatial b value variation might be a useful forecast tool, but resolution is poor, even on seismically active faults.

California↗
USGS2007

Three-dimensional P wave velocity model for the San Francisco Bay region, California

[1] A new three-dimensional P wave velocity model for the greater San Francisco Bay region has been derived using the double-difference seismic tomography method, using data from about 5,500 chemical explosions or air gun blasts and approximately 6,000 earthquakes. The model region covers 140 km NE-SW by 240 km NW-SE, extending from 20 km south of Monterey to Santa Rosa and reaching from the Pacific coast to the edge of the Great Valley. Our model provides the first regional view of a number of basement highs that are imaged in the uppermost few kilometers of the model, and images a number of velocity anomaly lows associated with known Mesozoic and Cenozoic basins in the study area. High velocity ( V p > 6.5 km/s) features at ∼15-km depth beneath part of the edge of the Great Valley and along the San Francisco peninsula are interpreted as ophiolite bodies. The relocated earthquakes provide a clear picture of the geometry of the major faults in the region, illuminating fault dips that are generally consistent with previous studies. Ninety-five percent of the earthquakes have depths between 2.3 and 15.2 km, and the corresponding seismic velocities at the hypocenters range from 4.8 km/s (presumably corresponding to Franciscan basement or Mesozoic sedimentary rocks of the Great Valley Sequence) to 6.8 km/s. The top of the seismogenic zone is thus largely controlled by basement depth, but the base of the seismogenic zone is not restricted to seismic velocities of ≤6.3 km/s in this region, as had been previously proposed.

California↗
USGS2007

Postseismic relaxation associated with transient creep rheology

[1] Perfettini and Avouac (2004) postulated that both the aftershock rate (assumed proportional to the local stressing rate) and the postseismic relaxation are driven by the loading imposed by postseismic slip on the brittle creep fault zone (BCFZ), the downdip extension of the fault zone below the coseismic rupture. I explore the consequences of that hypothesis for a long, strike-slip fault in the case where the BCFZ rheology is compatible with ordinary transient creep (creep strain proportional to log e (1 + t / τ 2 )). Because the important relaxation occurs near the bottom of the coseismic rupture, I calculate the postearthquake response with a model in which the BCFZ is represented by a viscoelastic half-space below the coseismic rupture. I find that both the predicted postseismic relaxation and the cumulative number of aftershocks can be approximated by the same temporal dependence N MO ( t ) = a MO (1−(1 + t / τ ) 1− p )/( p − 1), where t is the time after the earthquake and a MO , τ , and p are the constants chosen to fit either data set. Notice that d N MO ( t )/d t = ( a MO / τ )/(1 + t / τ ) p is the modified Omori law used to describe the rate of aftershock occurrence. Thus, the modified Omori law can be understood as a consequence of the Perfettini–Avouac hypothesis (aftershocks driven by slip on the BCFZ) and a BCFZ rheology compatible with ordinary transient creep. Moreover, the temporal dependence N MO ( t ) has been shown to fit postseismic surface deformation following at least 9 earthquakes. I also show that the conventional, one-dimensional, spring-block model of a BFCZ with a rheology compatible with ordinary transient creep leads to the same temporal dependence ( N MO ( t )).

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Hydrothermal fluid flow and deformation in large calderas: Inferences from numerical simulations

[1] Inflation and deflation of large calderas is traditionally interpreted as being induced by volume change of a discrete source embedded in an elastic or viscoelastic half-space, though it has also been suggested that hydrothermal fluids may play a role. To test the latter hypothesis, we carry out numerical simulations of hydrothermal fluid flow and poroelastic deformation in calderas by coupling two numerical codes: (1) TOUGH2 [Pruess et al., 1999], which simulates flow in porous or fractured media, and (2) BIOT2 [Hsieh, 1996], which simulates fluid flow and deformation in a linearly elastic porous medium. In the simulations, high-temperature water (350°C) is injected at variable rates into a cylinder (radius 50 km, height 3–5 km). A sensitivity analysis indicates that small differences in the values of permeability and its anisotropy, the depth and rate of hydrothermal injection, and the values of the shear modulus may lead to significant variations in the magnitude, rate, and geometry of ground surface displacement, or uplift. Some of the simulated uplift rates are similar to observed uplift rates in large calderas, suggesting that the injection of aqueous fluids into the shallow crust may explain some of the deformation observed in calderas.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Three-dimensional geophysical mapping of rock alteration and water content at Mount Adams, Washington: Implications for lahar hazards

[1] Hydrothermally altered rocks, particularly if water saturated, can weaken stratovolcanoes, thereby increasing the potential for catastrophic sector collapses that can lead to far-traveled, destructive debris flows. Evaluating the hazards associated with such alteration is difficult because alteration has been mapped on few active volcanoes and the distribution and intensity of subsurface alteration are largely unknown on any active volcano. At Mount Adams, some Holocene debris flows contain abundant hydrothermal minerals derived from collapse of the altered edifice. Intense hydrothermal alteration significantly reduces the resistivity and magnetization of volcanic rock, and therefore hydrothermally altered rocks can be identified with helicopter electromagnetic and magnetic measurements. Electromagnetic and magnetic data, combined with geological mapping and rock property measurements, indicate the presence of appreciable thicknesses of hydrothermally altered rock in the central core of Mount Adams north of the summit. We identify steep cliffs at the western edge of this zone as the likely source for future large debris flows. In addition, the electromagnetic data identified water in the brecciated core of the upper 100–200 m of the volcano. Water helps alter the rocks, reduces the effective stress, thereby increasing the potential for slope failure, and acts, with entrained melting ice, as a lubricant to transform debris avalanches into lahars. Therefore knowing the distribution of water is also important for hazard assessments. Our results demonstrate that high-resolution geophysical and geological observations can yield unprecedented views of the three-dimensional distribution of altered rock and shallow pore water aiding evaluation of the debris avalanche hazard.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Integrating laboratory creep compaction data with numerical fault models: A Bayesian framework

[1] We developed a robust Bayesian inversion scheme to plan and analyze laboratory creep compaction experiments. We chose a simple creep law that features the main parameters of interest when trying to identify rate-controlling mechanisms from experimental data. By integrating the chosen creep law or an approximation thereof, one can use all the data, either simultaneously or in overlapping subsets, thus making more complete use of the experiment data and propagating statistical variations in the data through to the final rate constants. Despite the nonlinearity of the problem, with this technique one can retrieve accurate estimates of both the stress exponent and the activation energy, even when the porosity time series data are noisy. Whereas adding observation points and/or experiments reduces the uncertainty on all parameters, enlarging the range of temperature or effective stress significantly reduces the covariance between stress exponent and activation energy. We apply this methodology to hydrothermal creep compaction data on quartz to obtain a quantitative, semiempirical law for fault zone compaction in the interseismic period. Incorporating this law into a simple direct rupture model, we find marginal distributions of the time to failure that are robust with respect to errors in the initial fault zone porosity.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

Constraining fault constitutive behavior with slip and stress heterogeneity

We study how enforcing self-consistency in the statistical properties of the preshear and postshear stress on a fault can be used to constrain fault constitutive behavior beyond that required to produce a desired spatial and temporal evolution of slip in a single event. We explore features of rupture dynamics that (1) lead to slip heterogeneity in earthquake ruptures and (2) maintain these conditions following rupture, so that the stress field is compatible with the generation of aftershocks and facilitates heterogeneous slip in subsequent events. Our three-dimensional fmite element simulations of magnitude 7 events on a vertical, planar strike-slip fault show that the conditions that lead to slip heterogeneity remain in place after large events when the dynamic stress drop (initial shear stress) and breakdown work (fracture energy) are spatially heterogeneous. In these models the breakdown work is on the order of MJ/m2, which is comparable to the radiated energy. These conditions producing slip heterogeneity also tend to produce narrower slip pulses independent of a slip rate dependence in the fault constitutive model. An alternative mechanism for generating these confined slip pulses appears to be fault constitutive models that have a stronger rate dependence, which also makes them difficult to implement in numerical models. We hypothesize that self-consistent ruptures could also be produced by very narrow slip pulses propagating in a self-sustaining heterogeneous stress field with breakdown work comparable to fracture energy estimates of kJ/M2. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

Constitutive relationships and physical basis of fault strength due to flash heating

We develop a model of fault strength loss resulting from phase change at asperity contacts due to flash heating that considers a distribution of contact sizes and nonsteady state evolution of fault strength with displacement. Laboratory faulting experiments conducted at high sliding velocities, which show dramatic strength reduction below the threshold for bulk melting, are well fit by the model. The predicted slip speed for the onset of weakening is in the range of 0.05 to 2 m/s, qualitatively consistent with the limited published observations. For this model, earthquake stress drops and effective shear fracture energy should be linearly pressure-dependent, whereas the onset speed may be pressure-independent or weakly pressure-dependent. On the basis of the theory, flash weakening is expected to produce large dynamic stress drops, small effective shear fracture energy, and undershoot. Estimates of the threshold slip speed, stress drop, and fracture energy are uncertain due to poor knowledge of the average ontact dimension, shear zone thickness and gouge particle size at seismogenic depths. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: Example calculations for California

Paleoearthquake observations often lack enough events at a given site to directly define a probability density function (PDF) for earthquake recurrence. Sites with fewer than 10-15 intervals do not provide enough information to reliably determine the shape of the PDF using standard maximum-likelihood techniques (e.g., Ellsworth et al., 1999). In this paper I present a method that attempts to fit wide ranges of distribution parameters to short paleoseismic series. From repeated Monte Carlo draws, it becomes possible to quantitatively estimate most likely recurrence PDF parameters, and a ranked distribution of parameters is returned that can be used to assess uncertainties in hazard calculations. In tests on short synthetic earthquake series, the method gives results that cluster around the mean of the input distribution, whereas maximum likelihood methods return the sample means (e.g., NIST/SEMATECH, 2006). For short series (fewer than 10 intervals), sample means tend to reflect the median of an asymmetric recurrence distribution, possibly leading to an overestimate of the hazard should they be used in probability calculations. Therefore a Monte Carlo approach may be useful for assessing recurrence from limited paleoearthquake records. Further, the degree of functional dependence among parameters like mean recurrence interval and coefficient of variation can be established. The method is described for use with time-independent and time-dependent PDFs, and results from 19 paleoseismic sequences on strike-slip faults throughout the state of California are given.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

Finding concealed active faults: Extending the southern Whidbey Island fault across the Puget Lowland, Washington

The southern Whidbey Island fault zone (SWIF), as previously mapped using borehole data, potential field anomalies, and marine seismic reflection surveys, consists of three subparallel, northwest trending strands extending ∼100 km from near Vancouver Island to the northern Puget Lowland. East of Puget Sound, the SWIF makes landfall between the cities of Seattle and Everett but is concealed beneath a thick mantle of young glacial deposits and vegetation. A ∼20‐km‐wide, northwest trending swath of subparallel, low‐amplitude aeromagnetic anomalies crosses this region of the Puget Lowland and is on strike with the SWIF. The most prominent aeromagnetic anomaly, the Cottage Lake lineament, extends at least 18 km and lies approximately on strike with the SWIF on Whidbey Island. Subtle scarps and topographic lineaments on Pleistocene surfaces, visible on high‐resolution lidar topography at a number of locations along the SWIF, lie on or near these magnetic anomalies. In the field, scarps exhibit northeast‐side‐up and vertical relief of 1 to 5 m. Excavations across several lidar scarps lying on or near magnetic anomalies show evidence for multiple folding and faulting events since deglaciation, most likely above buried reverse/oblique faults. Excavations in areas away from magnetic anomalies do not show evidence of tectonic deformation. In total, paleoseismological evidence suggests that the SWIF produced at least four earthquakes since deglaciation about 16,400 years ago, the most recent less than 2700 years ago.

Washington↗
USGS2008

Variability of passive gas emissions, seismicity, and deformation during crater lake growth at White Island Volcano, New Zealand, 2002-2006

We report on 4 years of airborne measurements of CO2, SO2, and H2S emission rates during a quiescent period at White Island volcano, New Zealand, beginning in 2003. During this time a significant crater lake emerged, allowing scrubbig processes to be investigated. CO2 emissions varied from a baseline of 250 to >2000 t d-1 and demonstrated clear annual cycling that was consistent with numbers of earthquake detections and annual changes in sea level. The annual variability was found to be most likely related to increases in the strain on the volcano during sea level highs, temporarily causing fractures to reduce in size in the upper conduit. SO2 emissions varied from 0 to >400 t d-1 and were clearly affected by scrubbing processes within the first year of take development. Scrubbing caused increases of SO42- and Cl- in lake waters, and the ratio of carbon to total sulphur suggested that elemental sulphur deposition was also significant in the lake during the first year. Careful measurements of the lake level and chemistry allowed estimates of the rate of H2O(g) and HCl(g) input into the lake and suggested that the molar abundances of major gas species (H2O, CO2, SO2, and HCl) during this quiescent phase were similar to fumarolic ratios observed between earlier eruptive periods. The volume of magma estimated from CO2 emissions (0.0 15-0.04 km3) was validated by Cl- increases in the lake, suggesting that the gas and magma are transported from deep to shallow depths as a closed system and likely become open in the upper conduit region. The absence of surface deformation further leads to a necessity of magma convection to supply and remove magma from the degassing depths. Two models of convection configurations are discussed. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

Dislocation models of interseismic deformation in the western United States

The GPS-derived crustal velocity field of the western United States is used to construct dislocation models in a viscoelastic medium of interseismic crustal deformation. The interseismic velocity field is constrained by 1052 GPS velocity vectors spanning the ???2500-km-long plate boundary zone adjacent to the San Andreas fault and Cascadia subduction zone and extending ???1000 km into the plate interior. The GPS data set is compiled from U.S. Geological Survey campaign data, Plate Boundary Observatory data, and the Western U.S. Cordillera velocity field of Bennett et al. (1999). In the context of viscoelastic cycle models of postearthquake deformation, the interseismic velocity field is modeled with a combination of earthquake sources on ???100 known faults plus broadly distributed sources. Models that best explain the observed interseismic velocity field include the contributions of viscoelastic relaxation from faulting near the major plate margins, viscoelastic relaxation from distributed faulting in the plate interior, as well as lateral variations in depth-averaged rigidity in the elastic lithosphere. Resulting rigidity variations are consistent with reduced effective elastic plate thickness in a zone a few tens of kilometers wide surrounding the San Andreas fault (SAF) system. Primary deformation characteristics are captured along the entire SAF system, Eastern California Shear Zone, Walker Lane, the Mendocino triple junction, the Cascadia margin, and the plate interior up to ???1000 km from the major plate boundaries.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

In situ Raman spectroscopic investigation of the structure of subduction-zone fluids

In situ Raman spectra of synthetic subduction-zone fluids (KAlSi3O8-H2O system) were measured to 900?? and 2.3 GPa using a hydrothermal diamond-anvil cell. The structures of aqueous fluid and hydrous melt become closer when conditions approach the second critical endpoint. Almost no three-dimensional network was observed in the supercritical fluid above 2 GPa although a large amount of silicate component is dissolved, suggesting that the physical and chemical properties of these phases change drastically at around the second critical endpoint. Our experimental results indicate that the fluids released from a subducting slab change from aqueous fluid to supercritical fluid with increasing depth under the volcanic arcs. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

A model of earthquake triggering probabilities and application to dynamic deformations constrained by ground motion observations

We have used observations from Felzer and Brodsky (2006) of the variation of linear aftershock densities (i.e., aftershocks per unit length) with the magnitude of and distance from the main shock fault to derive constraints on how the probability of a main shock triggering a single aftershock at a point, P(r, D), varies as a function of distance, r, and main shock rupture dimension, D. We find that P(r, D) becomes independent of D as the triggering fault is approached. When r ??? D P(r, D) scales as Dm where m-2 and decays with distance approximately as r-n with n = 2, with a possible change to r-(n-1) at r > h, where h is the closest distance between the fault and the boundaries of the seismogenic zone. These constraints may be used to test hypotheses about the types of deformations and mechanisms that trigger aftershocks. We illustrate this using dynamic deformations (i.e., radiated seismic waves) and a posited proportionality with P(r, D). Deformation characteristics examined include peak displacements, peak accelerations and velocities (proportional to strain rates and strains, respectively), and two measures that account for cumulative deformations. Our model indicates that either peak strains alone or strain rates averaged over the duration of rupture may be responsible for aftershock triggering.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on a simplified viscoelastic cycle model of fault interactions

We construct a viscoelastic cycle model of plate boundary deformation that includes the effect of time-dependent interseismic strain accumulation, coseismic strain release, and viscoelastic relaxation of the substrate beneath the seismogenic crust. For a given fault system, time-averaged stress changes at any point (not on a fault) are constrained to zero; that is, kinematic consistency is enforced for the fault system. The dates of last rupture, mean recurrence times, and the slip distributions of the (assumed) repeating ruptures are key inputs into the viscoelastic cycle model. This simple formulation allows construction of stress evolution at all points in the plate boundary zone for purposes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Stress evolution is combined with a Coulomb failure stress threshold at representative points on the fault segments to estimate the times of their respective future ruptures. In our PSHA we consider uncertainties in a four-dimensional parameter space: the rupture peridocities, slip distributions, time of last earthquake (for prehistoric ruptures) and Coulomb failure stress thresholds. We apply this methodology to the San Francisco Bay region using a recently determined fault chronology of area faults. Assuming single-segment rupture scenarios, we find that fature rupture probabilities of area faults in the coming decades are the highest for the southern Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and northern Calaveras faults. This conclusion is qualitatively similar to that of Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, but the probabilities derived here are significantly higher. Given that fault rupture probabilities are highly model-dependent, no single model should be used to assess to time-dependent rupture probabilities. We suggest that several models, including the present one, be used in a comprehensive PSHA methodology, as was done by Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗