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At least 523 records · Page 29Linked to original sources
USGS1998

Limits of retrospective power analysis

Power analysis after study completion has been suggested to interpret study results. We present 3 methods of estimating power and discuss their limitations. We use simulation studies to show that estimated power can be biased, extremely variable, and severely bounded. We endorse the practice of computing power to detect a biologically meaningful difference as a tool for study planning but suggest that calculation of confidence intervals on the parameter of interest is the appropriate way to gauge the strength and biological meaning of study results.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2018

Stream piracy in the Black Hills: A geomorphology lab exercise

The Black Hills of South Dakota exhibits many fine examples of stream piracy that are very suitable for teaching geomorphology lab exercises. This lab goes beyond standard topographic map interpretation by using geologic maps, well logs, gravel provenance and other types of data to teach students about stream piracy. Using a step-by-step method in which the lab exercises ramp up in difficulty, students hone their skills in deductive reasoning and data assimilation. The first exercises deal with the identification of stream piracy at a variety of spatial scales and the lab culminates with an exercise on landscape evolution and drainage rearrangement.

South Dakota↗
USGS2007

The blind men and the elephant: Concerns about the use of juvenile proportion data

Juvenile proportion data in shorebirds are being used with increasing frequency to estimate recruitment and even breeding success. Although this area of investigation holds great promise, flaws in current study designs preclude great confidence in the broad-scale inferences being drawn. We present data from our own investigations on juvenile proportions in Bar-tailed Godwits Limosa lapponica in Alaska to illustrate the significance of some of these problems. We then explore issues of study design, specifically bias, precision, untested assumptions and the use of correlations for interpreting juvenile proportion data. The issue of bias is particularly important, because inferences about shorebird productivity are being expanded to geographic areas well beyond what the data legitimately allow. Until studies of juvenile proportions are more rigorously designed and implemented, we suggest that many of the inferences about shorebird productivity based on such data are premature and may lead to management decisions that are detrimental to the conservation of shorebirds.

Stilt - The journal for the East Asian-Australasia↗
USGS2006

New insights into the history and origin of the southern Maya block, SE Mexico: U-Pb-SHRIMP zircon geochronology from metamorphic rocks of the Chiapas massif

The histories of the pre-Mesozoic landmasses in southern México and their connections with Laurentia, Gondwana, and among themselves are crucial for the understanding of the Late Paleozoic assembly of Pangea . The Permian igneous and metamorphic rocks from the Chiapas massif as part of the southern Maya block, México, were dated by U–Pb zircon geochronology employing the SHRIMP (sensitive high resolution ion microprobe) facility at Stanford University. The Chiapas massif is composed of deformed granitoids and orthogneisses with inliers of metasedimentary rocks. SHRIMP data from an anatectic orthogneiss demonstrate that the Chiapas massif was part of a Permian (∼ 272 Ma) active continental margin established on the Pacific margin of Gondwana after the Ouachita orogeny. Latest Permian (252–254 Ma) medium- to high-grade metamorphism and deformation affected the entire Chiapas massif, resulting in anatexis and intrusion of syntectonic granitoids. This unique orogenic event is interpreted as the result of compression due to flat subduction and accretionary tectonics. SHRIMP data of zircon cores from a metapelite from the NE Chiapas massif yielded a single Grenvillian source for sediments. The majority of the zircon cores from a para-amphibolite from the SE part of the massif yielded either 1.0–1.2 or 1.4–1.5 Ga sources, indicating provenance from South American Sunsás and Rondonian-San Ignacio provinces.

Maya block↗
USGS2005

Inorganic chemistry, petrography and palaeobotany of Permian coals in the Prince Charles Mountains, East Antarctica

Sampled outcrops of Permian coal seams of the Bainmedart Coal Measures in the Lambert Graben, eastern Antarctica, have been analysed for their proximates, ultimates, ash constituents and trace elements. A similar series of samples has been analysed for their principle maceral and microlithotype components and vitrinite reflectance. The coals are sub-bituminous to high volatile bituminous in rank; maturity increases markedly in southern exposures around Radok Lake where the oldest part of the succession is exposed and some strata have been intruded by mafic dykes and ultramafic sills. The coal ash is mostly silica and aluminium oxides, indicating that the mineral ash component is mostly quartz and various clay minerals. The ratio of silica to aluminium oxides appears to increase in an upward stratigraphic direction. The coal macerals include a relatively high liptinite content (mainly sporinite) that is significantly higher than for typical Gondwana coals. Greater degrees of weathering within the floodbasin/peat mire environments associated with climatic drying towards the end of the Permian might account for both preferential sporopollenin preservation and increased silica:aluminium oxide ratios up-section. Correlation of the coal maceral components to adjacent peninsula India coals indicates the closest comparative coals of similar age and rank occur within the Godavari Basin, rather then the Mahanadi Basin, which is traditionally interpreted to have been contiguous with the Lambert Graben before Gondwanan breakup. The petrological characteristics suggest that either previous interpretations of Palaeozoic basin alignments between Antarctica and India are incorrect, or that environmental settings and post-Permian burial histories of these basins were strongly independent of their tectonic juxtaposition. A permineralized peat bed within the succession reveals that the coals predominantly comprise wood- and leaf-rich debris derived from low-diversity forest-mire communities dominated by glossopterid and noeggerathiopsid gymnosperms. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2009

An experimental study of hydromagmatic fragmentation through energetic, non-explosive magma-water mixing

In this paper we report the first experimental investigation of non-explosive hydromagmatic fragmentation during energetic mixing with water. We mix magma and water by two methods: (1) pouring a basaltic melt between two converging water sprays; and (2) jetting basaltic melt at high pressure (3??MPa) through a nozzle into a tank of stagnant water. These experiments involved shear at relative velocities of ~ 5-16??m/s and vigorous mixing for less than a second, providing sufficient time for glassy rinds to grow but insufficient time for clot interiors to cool. In resulting fragments, we examined the gross morphology, which reflects fluid deformation during mixing, and surface textures, which reflect the growth and disruption of glassy rinds. We find major differences in both fragment morphology and surface texture between experiments. Water-spray experiments produced Pele's hair, thin bubble shards, melt droplets, and angular, fracture-bound droplet pieces. Melt-jet experiments produced mostly coarse (> 1??mm diameter), wavy fluidal fragments with broken ends. Fluidal surfaces of fragments produced by water-spray experiments were generally shiny under reflected light and, in microscopic examination, smooth down to micron scale, implying no disruption of glassy rinds, except for (a) rare flaking on Pele's hair that was bent prior to solidification; or (b) cracking and alligator-skin textures on segments of melt balls that had expanded before complete cooling. In contrast, textures of fluidal surfaces on fragments produced by melt-jet experiments are dull in reflected light and, in scanning electron images, exhibit ubiquitous discontinuous skins ("rinds") that are flaked, peeled, or smeared away in stripes. Adhering to these surfaces are flakes, blocks, and blobs of detached material microns to tens of microns in diameter. In the water-spray fragments, we interpret the scarcity of disrupted surface rinds to result from lack of bending after surfaces formed. In the melt-jet fragments, the ubiquity of partially detached rinds and rind debris likely reflects repeated bending, scraping, impact, and other disruption through turbulent velocity fluctuations. When extrapolated to jets of Surtseyan scale, where velocity fluctuations reach tens of meters per second and turbulent mixing persists for tens of seconds, rind disintegration could fragment a large fraction of the erupted material.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS1998

Multi-level slug tests in highly permeable formations: 2. Hydraulic conductivity identification, method verification, and field applications

Using the developed theory and modified Springer-Gelhar (SG) model, an identification method is proposed for estimating hydraulic conductivity from multi-level slug tests. The computerized algorithm calculates hydraulic conductivity from both monotonic and oscillatory well responses obtained using a double-packer system. Field verification of the method was performed at a specially designed fully penetrating well of 0.1-m diameter with a 10-m screen in a sand and gravel alluvial aquifer (MSEA site, Shelton, Nebraska). During well installation, disturbed core samples were collected every 0.6 m using a split-spoon sampler. Vertical profiles of hydraulic conductivity were produced on the basis of grain-size analysis of the disturbed core samples. These results closely correlate with the vertical profile of horizontal hydraulic conductivity obtained by interpreting multi-level slug test responses using the modified SG model. The identification method was applied to interpret the response from 474 slug tests in 156 locations at the MSEA site. More than 60% of responses were oscillatory. The method produced a good match to experimental data for both oscillatory and monotonic responses using an automated curve matching procedure. The proposed method allowed us to drastically increase the efficiency of each well used for aquifer characterization and to process massive arrays of field data. Recommendations generalizing this experience to massive application of the proposed method are developed.Using the developed theory and modified Springer-Gelhar (SG) model, an identification method is proposed for estimating hydraulic conductivity from multi-level slug tests. The computerized algorithm calculates hydraulic conductivity from both monotonic and oscillatory well responses obtained using a double-packer system. Field verification of the method was performed at a specially designed fully penetrating well of 0.1-m diameter with a 10-m screen in a sand and gravel alluvial aquifer (MSEA site, Shelton, Nebraska). During well installation, disturbed core samples were collected every 0.6 m using a split-spoon sampler. Vertical profiles of hydraulic conductivity were produced on the basis of grain-size analysis of the disturbed core samples. These results closely correlate with the vertical profile of horizontal hydraulic conductivity obtained by interpreting multi-level slug test responses using the modified SG model. The identification method was applied to interpret the response from 474 slug tests in 156 locations at the MSEA site. More than 60% of responses were oscillatory. The method produced a good match to experimental data for both oscillatory and monotonic responses using an automated curve matching procedure. The proposed method allowed us to drastically increase the efficiency of each well used for aquifer characterization and to process massive arrays of field data. Recommendations generalizing this experience to massive application of the proposed method are developed.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2010

The North American upper mantle: Density, composition, and evolution

The upper mantle of North America has been well studied using various seismic methods. Here we investigate the density structure of the North American (NA) upper mantle based on the integrative use of the gravity field and seismic data. The basis of our study is the removal of the gravitational effect of the crust to determine the mantle gravity anomalies. The effect of the crust is removed in three steps by subtracting the gravitational contributions of (1) topography and bathymetry, (2) low-density sedimentary accumulations, and (3) the three-dimensional density structure of the crystalline crust as determined by seismic observations. Information regarding sedimentary accumulations, including thickness and density, are taken from published maps and summaries of borehole measurements of densities; the seismic structure of the crust is based on a recent compilation, with layer densities estimated from P-wave velocities. The resultant mantle gravity anomaly map shows a pronounced negative anomaly (−50 to −400 mGal) beneath western North America and the adjacent oceanic region and positive anomalies (+50 to +350 mGal) east of the NA Cordillera. This pattern reflects the well-known division of North America into the stable eastern region and the tectonically active western region. The close correlation of large-scale features of the mantle anomaly map with those of the topographic map indicates that a significant amount of the topographic uplift in western NA is due to buoyancy in the hot upper mantle, a conclusion supported by previous investigations. To separate the contributions of mantle temperature anomalies from mantle compositional anomalies, we apply an additional correction to the mantle anomaly map for the thermal structure of the uppermost mantle. The thermal model is based on the conversion of seismic shear-wave velocities to temperature and is consistent with mantle temperatures that are independently estimated from heat flow and heat production data. The thermally corrected mantle density map reveals density anomalies that are chiefly due to compositional variations. These compositional density anomalies cause gravitational anomalies that reach ~250 mGal. A pronounced negative anomaly (−50 to −200 mGal) is found over the Canadian shield, which is consistent with chemical depletion and a corresponding low density of the lithospheric mantle, also referred to as the mantle tectosphere. The strongest positive anomaly is coincident with the Gulf of Mexico and indicates a positive density anomaly in the upper mantle, possibly an eclogite layer that has caused subsidence in the Gulf. Two linear positive anomalies are also seen south of 40°N: one with a NE-SW trend in the eastern United States, roughly coincident with the Grenville-Appalachians, and a second with a NW-SE trend beneath the states of Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado. These anomalies are interpreted as being due to (1) the presence of remnants of an oceanic slab in the upper mantle beneath the Grenville-Appalachian suture and (2) mantle thickening caused by a period of shallow, flat subduction during the Laramie orogeny, respectively. Based on these geophysical results, the evolution of the NA upper mantle is depicted in a series of maps and cartoons that display the primary processes that have formed and modified the NA crust and lithospheric upper mantle.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1991

Facies development in the Lower Freeport coal bed, west-central Pennsylvania, U.S.A.

The Lower Freeport coal bed in west-central Pennsylvania is interpreted to have formed within a lacustrine-mire environment. Conditions of peat formation, caused by the changing chemical and physical environments, produced five coal facies and two mineral-rich parting facies within the coal bed. The coal bed facies are compositionally unique, having developed under varying conditions, and are manifested by megascopic, petrographic, palynologic and quality characteristics. The initial environment of the Lower Freeport peat resulted in a coal facies that is relatively high in ash yield and contains large amounts of lycopod miospores and moderate abundances of cryptotelinite, crypto-gelocollinite, inertinite and tree fern miospores. This initial Lower Freeport peat is interpreted to have been a topogenous body that was low lying, relatively nutrient rich (mesotrophic to eutrophic), and susceptible to ground water and to sediment influx from surface water. The next facies to form was a ubiquitous, clay-rich durain parting which is attributed to a general rise in the water table accompanied by widespread flooding. Following formation of the parting, peat accumulation resumed within an environment that inhibited clastic input. Development of doming in this facies restricted deposition of the upper shale parting to the margins of the mire and allowed low-ash peat to form in the interior of the mire. Because this environment was conducive to preservation of cellular tissue, this coal facies also contains large amounts of crypto-telinite. This facies development is interpreted to have been a transitional phase from topogenous, planar peat formation to slightly domed, oligotrophic (nutrient-poor) peat formation. As domed peat formation continued, fluctuations in the water table enabled oxidation of the peat surface and produced high inertinite concentrations toward the top of the coal bed. Tree ferns became an increasingly important peat contributor in the e upper facies, based on the palynoflora. This floral change is interpreted to have resulted from the peat surface becoming less wet or better drained, a condition that inhibited proliferation of lycopod trees. Accumulation of the peat continued until rising water levels formed a freshwater lake within which clays and silts were deposited. The development of the Lower Freeport peat from a planar mire through transitional phases toward domed peat formation may be an example of the type of peat formation of other upper Middle and Upper Pennsylvanian coal beds.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2024

Decoding paleomire conditions of Paleogene superhigh-organic-sulfur coals

Superhigh-organic‑sulfur (SHOS) coals (coals with organic sulfur content >4 wt%) are unique coal deposits found at a few notable locations in the world. Specific peat accumulation and preservation conditions must be met to form SHOS coals. Organic sulfur is a major constituent of such coals, and it may have various sources depending on the prevailing paleomire conditions. Understanding such paleomire conditions sheds light on the formation mechanisms of SHOS coals. This investigation decodes the paleomire conditions of the Paleogene SHOS coals from Meghalaya, India, using sulfur isotopic compositions ( δ 34 S) of organic sulfur ( δ 34 S OS ) and pyritic sulfur ( δ 34 S Py ) along with organic petrography, pyrite morphology and trace element ratios. Thirty coal samples were collected from the Jaintia Hills in the east, Khasi Hills in the middle, and Garo Hills in the west of Meghalaya. The organic sulfur content in the Garo, Khasi, and Jaintia coals varies from 1.0 to 3.3 wt%, 1.4 to 13.8 wt%, and 1.0 to 7.2 wt%, respectively. Further, after separation from pyritic sulfur and sulfate sulfur phases, the organic sulfur content ranges from 54.4 to 69.2%, 63.8 to 79.9%, and 59.3 to 73.8%, in the Garo, Khasi, and Jaintia Hills, respectively, suggesting the SHOS nature of these coal samples. The δ 34 S Py varies from −29.3 ‰ to +5.7 ‰, −21.3 ‰ to +27.3 ‰, and −12.1 ‰ to −4.3 ‰, in the Jaintia, Khasi, and Garo Hills, respectively, while the δ 34 S OS fluctuates from −4.6 ‰ to +3.7 ‰, −9.3 ‰ to +7.8 ‰, and − 9.0 ‰ to −5.0 ‰, respectively. The δ 34 S values of pyrite and organic sulfur (OS) in Jaintia coals are 34 S depleted compared to seawater sulfate (+22 ‰), leading to fractionations in the range of −51.3 ‰ to −16.3 ‰ (mean − 31.6 ‰) and − 26.6 ‰ to −18.3 ‰ (mean − 23.1 ‰) for pyritic and organic sulfur (OS), respectively. Pyrite in Khasi coals show a relatively heavier δ 34 S composition averaging at −20.5 ‰, whereas organic sulfur (OS) isotope compositions range from −31.3 ‰ to −14.2 ‰ with a mean of −22.6 ‰. Pyrite and OS in the Garo coals are depleted compared to seawater sulfate. Isotope variations in the Jaintia, Khasi, and Garo coals indicate microbial sulfate reduction (MSR) of seawater sulfate. Large isotopic fractionations between Eocene seawater sulfate and pyritic sulfur ( Δ 34 S SO4Eocene – pyrite = up to −51.3 ‰; mean − 31.6 ‰) in Jaintia coals indicate their possible formation in the water column/near the sediment-seawater interface (open system) and also hint toward dissimilatory sulfate reduction pathways that prevailed under anoxic redox conditions. However, mean values of Δ 34 S SO4Eocene – pyrite (−20.5 ‰) in the Khasi coals imply pyrite formation deeper in the sediments (more closed system) under dysoxic conditions. The dominance of OS over pyritic sulfur, framboidal pyrite, and its microcrystal size distributions in Jaintia coals may suggest syngenetic pyrite formation in open water reducing/anoxic conditions under paralic environments. Elevated Sr/Ba and U/Th values in these coals further confirm the anoxic conditions. Nevertheless, the presence of euhedral pyrite with the alleviated pyrite framboids in the Khasi coals and their complete absence in the Garo coals may suggest dysoxic-suboxic and suboxic-oxic depositional conditions, respectively. The isotopic signatures of the Garo coals suggest sulfur contribution from the parent paleobiota and MSR under a freshwater-oxic environment. Insignificant fractionations between δ 34 S Py and δ 34 S OS indicate limited iron and sulfate availability for additional sulfur cycling and disproportionation reactions, typical of oxic conditions. The absence of framboidal pyrite, elevated sulfate concentration, and mean Sr/Ba and U/Th values of 0.5 and 0.3, respectively, further suggest the freshwater peat deposition in the Garo Hills under limnotelmatic to telmatic freshwater conditions. Moreover, high inertinite content (I mmf = 9.77–33.16 vol%), possibly induced by atmospheric peat exposure, supports the interpretation of suboxic-oxic paleomire conditions in Garo Hills. Gradually decreasing mineral matter content from Jaintia (mean 13.6 vol%) to Garo coals (mean 7.4 vol%) additionally projects a transition from mesotrophic brackish to freshwater limnotelmatic environment, complementing the shift in the paleomire condition from eastern (Jaintia) to western (Garo) Meghalayan Hills.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2013

Combined ESR/U-series chronology of Acheulian hominid-bearing layers at Trinchera Galería site, Atapuerca, Spain

The Sierra de Atapuerca, northern Spain, is known from many prehistoric and palaeontological sites documenting human prehistory in Europe. Three major sites, Gran Dolina, Galería and Sima del Elefante, range in age from the oldest hominin of Western Europe dated to 1.1 to 1.3 Ma (millions of years ago) at Sima del Elefante to c.a. 0.2 Ma on the top of the Galería archaeological sequence. Recently, a chronology based on luminescence methods (Thermoluminescence [TL] and Infrared Stimulated Luminescence [IRSL]) applied to cave sediments was published for the Gran Dolina and Galería sites. The authors proposed for Galería an age of 450 ka (thousands of years ago) for the units lower GIII and GII, suggesting that the human occupation there is younger than the hominid remains of Sima de los Huesos (>530 ka) around 1 km away. In this paper, we present new results obtained by combined Electron Spin Resonance/Uranium-series (ESR/U-series) dating on 20 herbivorous teeth from different levels at the Galería site. They are in agreement with the TL results for the upper part of the stratigraphic sequence (GIV and GIIIb), in the range of between 200 and 250 ka. But for the GIIIa to GIIb levels, the TL ages become abruptly older by 200 ka while ESR ages remain relatively constant. Finally, the TL and ESR data agree in the lowest part of the section (GIIa); both fall in the range of around 350–450 ka. Our results suggest a different interpretation for the GII, GIII and GIV units of Galería and the upper part of Gran Dolina (TD10 and TD11) than obtained by TL. The ESR/U-series results are supported by a Bayesian analysis, which allows a better integration between stratigraphic information and radiometric data.

Atapuerca Mountains↗
USGS1996

Detection and monitoring of H2O and CO2 ice clouds on Mars

We have developed an observational scheme for the detection and discrimination of Mars atmospheric H 2 O and CO 2 clouds using ground-based instruments in the near infrared. We report the results of our cloud detection and characterization study using Mars near IR images obtained during the 1990 and 1993 oppositions. We focused on specific wavelengths that have the potential, based on previous laboratory studies of H 2 O and CO 2 ices, of yielding the greatest degree of cloud detectability and compositional discriminability. We have detected and mapped absorption features at some of these wavelengths in both the northern and southern polar regions of Mars. Compositional information on the nature of these absorption features was derived from comparisons with laboratory ice spectra and with a simplified radiative transfer model of a CO 2 ice cloud overlying a bright surface. Our results indicate that both H 2 O and CO 2 ices can be detected and distinguished in the polar hood clouds. The region near 3.00 μm is most useful for the detection of water ice clouds because there is a strong H 2 O ice absorption at this wavelength but only a weak CO 2 ice band. The region near 3.33 μm is most useful for the detection of CO 2 ice clouds because there is a strong, relatively narrow CO 2 ice band at this wavelength but only broad “continuum” H 2 O ice absorption. Weaker features near 2.30 μm could arise from CO 2 ice at coarse grain sizes, or surface/dust minerals. Narrow features near 2.00 μm, which could potentially be very diagnostic of CO 2 ice clouds, suffer from contamination by Mars atmospheric CO 2 absorptions and are difficult to interpret because of the rather poor knowledge of surface elevation at high latitudes. These results indicate that future ground-based, Earth-orbital, and spacecraft studies over a more extended span of the seasonal cycle should yield substantial information on the style and timing of volatile transport on Mars, as well as a more detailed understanding of the role of CO 2 condensation in the polar heat budget.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2017

Enhancing the interpretation of stated choice analysis through the application of a verbal protocol assessment

A stated choice survey was employed to evaluate the relative importance of resource, social, and management attributes by asking visitors to select preferred configurations of these attributes. A verbal protocol assessment was added to consider how respondents interpret and respond to stated choice questions applied to hikers of a popular trail at Acadia National Park. Results suggest that visitors are sensitive to changes in public access to the trail and its ecological conditions, with level of encounters least important. Verbal protocol results identified considerations made by respondents that provide insight to their evaluations of alternative recreation setting configurations. These insights help clarify issues important to visitors that stated choice results on their own do not provide.

Maine↗
USGS2008

Controls on mineralisation in the Sierra Foothills gold province, central California, USA: A GIS-based reconnaissance prospectivity analysis

The assessment of spatial relationships between the location, abundance and size of orogenic-gold deposits in the highly endowed Sierra Foothills gold province in California, via the combination of field studies and a GIS-based analysis, illustrates the power of such an approach to the characterisation of important parameters of mineral systems, and the prediction of districts likely to host economic mineralisation. Regional- to deposit-scale reconnaissance mapping suggests that deposition of gold-bearing quartz veins occurred in second- and third-order, east-over-west thrusts during regional east - west compression and right-lateral transpression. At the district-scale, significant zones of mineralisation correspond with such transpressional reactivation zones and dilational jogs that developed during the Late Jurassic - Early Cretaceous along the misaligned segments of first-order faults throughout the Sierra Nevada Foothills Metamorphic Belt. Field-based observations and interpretation of GIS data (including solid geology, structural elements, deposit locations, magnetics, gravity) also highlight the importance of structural permeability contrasts, rheological gradients, and variations in fault orientation for localising mineralisation. Although this approach confirms empirical findings and produces promising results at the province scale, enhanced geological, structural, geophysical and geochronological data density is required to generate regionally consistent, high-quality input layers that improve predictive targeting at the goldfield to deposit-scale.

Australian Journal of Earth Sciences↗
USGS2025

Leveraging high-frequency sensor data and U.S. National Water Model output to forecast turbidity in a drinking water supply basin

As high-frequency sensor networks increasingly enhance data-driven models of water quality, process-based models like the U.S. National Water Model (NWM) are generating accessible forecasts of streamflow at increasingly dense scales. There is now an opportunity to combine these products to construct actionable water quality forecasts. To that end, we couple streamflow forecasts from the NWM to a gradient-boosted decision tree algorithm (LightGBM) trained on 5+ years of high-frequency monitoring data to forecast in-stream turbidity levels in the Catskill Mountains, NY, USA. Results indicate LightGBM models are capable of relatively skillful predictions, which enable robust forecasts for 1–3 days lead times. LightGBM models offer improvements over a simplified linear model across the entire forecast horizon, and more spatially complex models are more resilient to error at shorter lead times (1–3 days). Moreover, interpretation of model features emphasizes high flows as a driver of turbidity in the region. Results suggest that interpretable, flexible, and efficient machine learning algorithms can produce capable water quality forecasts from streamflow forecasts and expand understanding of process dynamics. The use case illustrated here—to our knowledge the first NWM-based water quality forecast—underscores the potential to employ the NWM to expand national water quality forecasting capacity and can overall serve as a guide for similar efforts in basins across the country.

New York↗
USGS1997

Estimating age of sea otters with cementum layers in the first premolar

We assessed sources of variation in the use of tooth cementum layers to determine age by comparing counts in premolar tooth sections to known ages of 20 sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ). Three readers examined each sample 3 times, and the 3 readings of each sample were averaged by reader to provide the mean estimated age. The mean (SE) of known age sample was 5.2 years (1.0) and the 3 mean estimated ages were 7.0 (1.0), 5.9 (1.1) and, 4.4 (0.8). The proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 1 year were 0.25, 0.55, and 0.65 and to within ± 2 years 0.65, 0.80, and 0.70, by reader. The proportions of samples estimated with >3 years error were 0.20, 0.10, and 0.05. Errors as large as 7, 6, and 5 years were made among readers. In few instances did all readers uniformly provide either accurate (error <1 yr) or inaccurate (error >1 yr) counts. In most cases (0.85), 1 or 2 of the readers provided accurate counts. Coefficients of determination (R2) between known ages and mean estimated ages were 0.81, 0.87, and 0.87, by reader. The results of this study suggest that cementum layers within sea otter premolar teeth likely are deposited annually and can be used for age estimation. However, criteria used in interpreting layers apparently varied by reader, occasionally resulting in large errors, which were not consistent among readers. While large errors were evident for some individual otters, there were no differences between the known and estimated age-class distribution generated by each reader. Until accuracy can be improved, application of this ageing technique should be limited to sample sizes of at least 6-7 individuals within age classes of ≥ 1 year.

Alaska, California↗
USGS2001

Declining scaup populations: A retrospective analysis of long-term population and harvest survey data

We examined long-term databases concerning population status of scaup (lesser [ Aythya affinis ] and greater scaup [ A. marila ] combined) and harvest statistics of lesser scaup to identify factors potentially limiting population growth. Specifically, we explored evidence for and against the general hypotheses that scaup populations have declined in association with declining recruitment and/or female survival. We examined geographic heterogeneity in scaup demographic patterns that could yield evidence about potential limiting factors. Several biases exist in survey methodology used to estimate scaup populations and harvest statistics; however, none of these biases likely accounted for our major findings that (1) the continental scaup breeding population has declined over the last 20 years, with widespread and consistent declines within surveyed areas of the Canadian western boreal forest where most lesser scaup breed; (2) sex ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have increased (more males now relative to females); and (3) age ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have declined (fewer immatures now relative to adults), especially in the midcontinent region. We interpreted these major findings as evidence that (1) recruitment of lesser scaup has declined over the last 20 years, particularly in the Canadian western boreal forest; and (2) survival of female lesser scaup has declined relative to that of males. We found little evidence that harvest was associated with the scaup population decline. Our findings underscore the need for both improvements and changes to population survey procedures and new research to discriminate among various hypotheses explaining the recent scaup population decline.

North America↗
USGS2009

Trace-element record in zircons during exhumation from UHP conditions, North-East Greenland Caledonides

Coesite-bearing zircon formed at ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) conditions share general characteristics of eclogite-facies zircon with trace-element signatures characterized by depleted heavy rare earth elements (HREE), lack of an Eu anomaly, and low Th/ U ratios. Trace-element signatures of zircons from the Caledonian UHP terrane in North-East Greenland were used to examine the possible changes in signature with age during exhumation. Collection and interpretation of age and trace-element analyses of zircon from three samples of quartzofeldspathic gneiss and two leucocratic intrusions were guided by core vs. rim zoning patterns as imaged by cathodoluminesence. Change from igneous to eclogite-facies metamorphic trace-element signature in protolith zircon is characterized by gradual depletion of HREE, whereas newly formed metamorphic rims have flat HREE patterns and REE concentrations that are distinct from the recrystallized inherited cores. The signature associated with eclogite-facies metamorphic zircon is observed in coesite-bearing zircon formed at 358 ?? 4 Ma, metamorphic rims formed at 348 ?? 5 Ma during the initial stages of exhumation, and metamorphic rims formed at 337 ?? 5 Ma. Zircons from a garnet-bearing granite emplaced in the neck of an eclogite boudin and a leucocratic dike that cross-cuts amphibolite-facies structural fabrics have steeply sloping HREE patterns, variably developed negative Eu anomalies, and low Th/U ratios. The granite records initial decompression melting and exhumation at 347 ?? 2 Ma and later zircon rim growth at 329 ?? 5. The leucocratic dike was likely emplaced at amphibolite-facies conditions at 330 ?? 2 Ma, but records additional growth of compositionally similar zircon at 321 ??2 Ma. The difference between the trace-element signature of metamorphic zircon in the gneisses and in part coeval leucocratic intrusions indicates that the zircon signature varies as a function of lithology and context, thus enhancing its ability to aid in the interpretation of U-Pb data and track the exhumation history of UHP terranes. The differences may reflect variation in elemental availability through breakdown reactions in quartzofeldpathic gneiss vs. availability during melt production and/or crystallization. UHP rocks in North-East Greenland began exhumation by 347 ?? 2 Ma, were still at HP eclogite-facies conditions at 337 ?? 5 Ma and were at amphibolite-facies conditions by 330 ?? 2 Ma. ?? 2009 E. Schweizerbart'sche Verlagsbuchhandlung.

European Journal of Mineralogy↗