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At least 523 records · Page 29Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Biodiversity in a changing climate: a synthesis of current and projected trends in the US

This paper provides a synthesis of the recent literature describing how global biodiversity is being affected by climate change and is projected to respond in the future. Current studies reinforce earlier findings of major climate-change-related impacts on biological systems and document new, more subtle after-effects. For example, many species are shifting their distributions and phenologies at faster rates than were recorded just a few years ago; however, responses are not uniform across species. Shifts have been idiosyncratic and in some cases counterintuitive, promoting new community compositions and altering biotic interactions. Although genetic diversity enhances species' potential to respond to variable conditions, climate change may outpace intrinsic adaptive capacities and increase the relative vulnerabilities of many organisms. Developing effective adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation will not only require flexible decision-making and management approaches that account for uncertainties in climate projections and ecological responses but will also necessitate coordinated monitoring efforts.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2015

Why are freshwater fish so threatened?

The huge diversity of freshwater fishes is concentrated into an area of habitat that covers only about 1% of the Earth's surface, and much of this limited area has already been extensively impacted and intensively managed to meet human needs (Dudgeon et al ., 2006). As outlined in Chapter 1, the number and proportions of threatened species tend to rise wherever fish diversity coincides with dense human populations, intensive resource use and development pressure. Of particular concern is the substantial proportion of the global diversity of freshwater fishes concentrated within the Mekong and Amazon Basins and west-central Africa (Berra, 2001; Abell et al ., 2008; Dudgeon, 2011; Chapter 1) with extensive exploitation of water resources planned to accelerate in future years (Dudgeon, 2011; Chapter 1). If current trends continue, and the social, political and economic models that have been used to develop industrialised regions of the world over the past two centuries prevail, then the future of a significant proportion of global diversity of freshwater fish species is clearly uncertain. Understanding why so many freshwater fish species are threatened requires some understanding of their biology, diversity, distribution, biogeography and ecology, but also some appreciation of the social, economic and political forces that are causing humans to destroy the natural ecosystems upon which we all ultimately depend. To begin to understand the diversity of freshwater fishes, we first need to consider the processes that generated and continue to sustain the diversity of species we see today. Based on an understanding of how freshwater fish diversity is generated and sustained, we consider how vulnerable or resilient various freshwater fishes are to the range of anthropogenic impacts that impinge on freshwater ecosystems. Finally, we discuss how social, political and economic drivers influence human impacts on natural systems, and the changes needed to current models of development that can lead to a sustainable future for humans and the diverse range of freshwater fish species with which we share our planet. The aim of this chapter is to provide an overview of the key issues and threats driving the declines in freshwater fish diversity identified in Chapter 1; subsequent chapters provide more detail on the key issues and address our options for developing a sustainable future for freshwater fishes.

Book chapter↗
USGS2019

Transient population dynamics impede restoration and may promote ecosystem transformation after disturbance

The apparent failure of ecosystems to recover from increasingly widespread disturbance is a global concern. Despite growing focus on factors inhibiting resilience and restoration, we still know very little about how demographic and population processes influence recovery. Using inverse and forward demographic modelling of 531 post‐fire sagebrush populations across the western US, we show that demographic processes during recovery from seeds do not initially lead to population growth but rather to years of population decline, low density, and risk of extirpation after disturbance and restoration, even at sites with potential to support long‐term, stable populations. Changes in population structure, and resulting transient population dynamics, lead to a > 50% decline in population growth rate after disturbance and significant reductions in population density. Our results indicate that demographic processes influence the recovery of ecosystems from disturbance and that demographic analyses can be used by resource managers to anticipate ecological transformation risk.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2023

Simulation of future streamflow and irrigation demand based on climate and urban growth projections in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, North Carolina and South Carolina, 2055–65

Water resources in the coastal region of North Carolina and South Carolina (Coastal Carolinas) are currently under stress from competing ecological and societal needs. Projected changes in climate and population are expected to place even more stress on water resources in the region. The Coastal Carolinas Focus Area Study was initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey Water Availability and Use Science Program’s National Water Census to investigate these stressors and their effects on water resources for the Coastal Carolinas. As part of that study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to investigate future streamflow and irrigation demand under six scenarios for the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, which flow through the Coastal Carolinas and into the Atlantic Ocean. For each river basin, historical (2000 through 2014) Soil and Water Assessment Tool models were minimally calibrated, and future (2055 through 2065) scenario models were developed based on three alternative global climate models, two alternative urban growth projections, and water-use projections that correspond to each global climate model and urban growth projection pair. The river basins were delineated into 2,928 and 5,678 subbasins for the Cape Fear and Pee Dee, respectively, each approximately 2.6 square miles (mi 2 ) in size. The best available water-use and wastewater discharge data were used for historical model calibration. The models simulated monthly mean streamflow with median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.53 (n = 36) and 0.61 (n = 33) in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, respectively. Average percent bias was −4.8 percent for the Cape Fear River Basin and −1.2 percent for the Pee Dee River Basin. Catchments for streamgages chosen for model calibration that were small (less than 100 mi 2 ) to medium (100–1,000 mi 2 ) in area tended to perform better than larger catchments (greater than 1,000 mi 2 ). Historical models were used to develop future model scenarios by replacing historical weather, land-use, and water-use input datasets with projected datasets. One small, gaged catchment was selected to illustrate how the models can be used to evaluate the relative differences in simulated streamflow resulting from alternative global climate models and urban growth projections. For the selected catchment, future climate projections had a much greater influence on simulated streamflow than urban growth projections. Simulated cumulative monthly mean streamflow results for this catchment differed by 26 percent under alternative global climate models and differed by 2.4 percent under alternative urban growth projections. Irrigation demand was modeled for subbasins with cropland. Simulated differences in irrigation demand were more pronounced and widespread across the model domain under the alternative future climate scenarios compared to alternative urban growth scenarios. The calibrated and future scenario models have the capability to run on a daily time step and simulate streamflow and irrigation demand for thousands of small subbasins in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins. The models and underlying datasets enable future analyses for large and small areas within the basins.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗
USGS2023

A global ecological signal of extinction risk in marine ray-finned fishes (class Actinopterygii)

Many marine fish species are experiencing population declines, but their extinction risk profiles are largely understudied in comparison to their terrestrial vertebrate counterparts. Selective extinction of marine fish species may result in rapid alteration of the structure and function of ocean ecosystems. In this study, we compiled an ecological trait dataset for 8,185 species of marine ray-finned fishes (class Actinopterygii) from FishBase and used phylogenetic generalized linear models to examine which ecological traits are associated with increased extinction risk, based on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List. We also assessed which threat types may be driving these species toward greater extinction risk and whether threatened species face a greater average number of threat types than non-threatened species. We found that larger body size and/or fishes with life histories involving movement between marine, brackish, and freshwater environments are associated with elevated extinction risk. Commercial harvesting threatens the greatest number of species, followed by pollution, development, and then climate change. We also found that threatened species, on average, face a significantly greater number of threat types than non-threatened species. These results can be used by resource managers to help address the heightened extinction risk patterns we found.

Cambridge Prisms: Extinction↗
USGS2017

Lessons from the Tōhoku tsunami: A model for island avifauna conservation prioritization

Earthquake-generated tsunamis threaten coastal areas and low-lying islands with sudden flooding. Although human hazards and infrastructure damage have been well documented for tsunamis in recent decades, the effects on wildlife communities rarely have been quantified. We describe a tsunami that hit the world's largest remaining tropical seabird rookery and estimate the effects of sudden flooding on 23 bird species nesting on Pacific islands more than 3,800 km from the epicenter. We used global positioning systems, tide gauge data, and satellite imagery to quantify characteristics of the Tōhoku earthquake-generated tsunami (11 March 2011) and its inundation extent across four Hawaiian Islands. We estimated short-term effects of sudden flooding to bird communities using spatially explicit data from Midway Atoll and Laysan Island, Hawai'i. We describe variation in species vulnerability based on breeding phenology, nesting habitat, and life history traits. The tsunami inundated 21%–100% of each island's area at Midway Atoll and Laysan Island. Procellariformes (albatrosses and petrels) chick and egg losses exceeded 258,500 at Midway Atoll while albatross chick losses at Laysan Island exceeded 21,400. The tsunami struck at night and during the peak of nesting for 14 colonial seabird species. Strongly philopatric Procellariformes were vulnerable to the tsunami. Nonmigratory, endemic, endangered Laysan Teal ( Anas laysanensis ) were sensitive to ecosystem effects such as habitat changes and carcass-initiated epizootics of avian botulism, and its populations declined approximately 40% on both atolls post-tsunami. Catastrophic flooding of Pacific islands occurs periodically not only from tsunamis, but also from storm surge and rainfall; with sea-level rise, the frequency of sudden flooding events will likely increase. As invasive predators occupy habitat on higher elevation Hawaiian Islands and globally important avian populations are concentrated on low-lying islands, additional conservation strategies may be warranted to increase resilience of island biodiversity encountering tsunamis and rising sea levels.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2016

Global assessment of schistosomiasis control over the past century shows targeting the snail intermediate host works best

Background Despite control efforts, human schistosomiasis remains prevalent throughout Africa, Asia, and South America. The global schistosomiasis burden has changed little since the new anthelmintic drug, praziquantel, promised widespread control. Methodology We evaluated large-scale schistosomiasis control attempts over the past century and across the globe by identifying factors that predict control program success: snail control (e.g., molluscicides or biological control), mass drug administrations (MDA) with praziquantel, or a combined strategy using both. For data, we compiled historical information on control tactics and their quantitative outcomes for all 83 countries and territories in which: (i) schistosomiasis was allegedly endemic during the 20 th century, and (ii) schistosomiasis remains endemic, or (iii) schistosomiasis has been "eliminated," or is "no longer endemic," or transmission has been interrupted. Principal Findings Widespread snail control reduced prevalence by 92 ± 5% (N = 19) vs. 37 ± 7% (N = 29) for programs using little or no snail control. In addition, ecological, economic, and political factors contributed to schistosomiasis elimination. For instance, snail control was most common and widespread in wealthier countries and when control began earlier in the 20 th century. Conclusions/Significance Snail control has been the most effective way to reduce schistosomiasis prevalence. Despite evidence that snail control leads to long-term disease reduction and elimination, most current schistosomiasis control efforts emphasize MDA using praziquantel over snail control. Combining drug-based control programs with affordable snail control seems the best strategy for eliminating schistosomiasis.

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases↗
USGS2018

International meeting on sarcoptic mange in wildlife, June 2018, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA

Sarcoptic mange is a globally distributed disease caused by the burrowing mite Sarcoptes scabiei , which also causes scabies in humans. A wide and increasing number of wild mammal species are reported to be susceptible to mange; however, the impacts of the disease in wildlife populations, mechanisms involved in its eco-epidemiological dynamics, and risks to public and ecosystem health are still unclear. Major gaps exist concerning S. scabiei host specificity and the mechanisms involved in the different presentations of the disease, which change between individuals and species. Immunological responses to the mite may have a relevant role explaining these different susceptibilities, as these affect the clinical signs, and consequently, the severity of the disease. Recently, some studies have suggested sarcoptic mange as an emerging threat for wildlife, based on several outbreaks with increased severity, geographical expansions, and novel wild hosts affected. Disease ecology experts convened for the “International Meeting on Sarcoptic Mange in Wildlife” on 4–5 June 2018, hosted by the Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Virginia, USA. The meeting had a structure of (i) pre-workshop review; (ii) presentation and discussions; and (iii) identification of priority research questions to understand sarcoptic mange in wildlife. The workgroup concluded that research priorities should be on determining the variation in modes of transmission for S. scabiei in wildlife, factors associated with the variation of disease severity among species, and long-terms effects of the mange in wildlife populations. In this note we summarize the main discussions and research gaps identified by the experts.

Parasites & Vectors↗
USGS2011

Impacts of past climate and sea level change on Everglades wetlands: placing a century of anthropogenic change into a late-Holocene context

We synthesize existing evidence on the ecological history of the Florida Everglades since its inception ~7 ka (calibrated kiloannum) and evaluate the relative impacts of sea level rise, climate variability, and human alteration of Everglades hydrology on wetland plant communities. Initial freshwater peat accumulation began between 6 and 7 ka on the platform underlying modern Florida Bay when sea level was ~6.2 m below its current position. By 5 ka, sawgrass and waterlily peats covered the area bounded by Lake Okeechobee to the north and the Florida Keys to the south. Slower rates of relative sea level rise ~3 ka stabilized the south Florida coastline and initiated transitions from freshwater to mangrove peats near the coast. Hydrologic changes in freshwater marshes also are indicated ~3 ka. During the last ~2 ka, the Everglades wetland was affected by a series of hydrologic fluctuations related to regional to global-scale fluctuations in climate and sea level. Pollen evidence indicates that regional-scale droughts lasting two to four centuries occurred ~1 ka and ~0.4 ka, altering wetland community composition and triggering development of characteristic Everglades habitats such as sawgrass ridges and tree islands. Intercalation of mangrove peats with estuarine muds ~1 ka indicates a temporary slowing or stillstand of sea level. Although sustained droughts and Holocene sea level rise played large roles in structuring the greater Everglades ecosystem, twentieth century reductions in freshwater flow, compartmentalization of the wetland, and accelerated rates of sea level rise had unprecedented impacts on oxidation and subsidence of organic soils, changes/loss of key Everglades habitats, and altered distribution of coastal vegetation.

Florida↗
USGS2019

Global ecological predictors of the soil priming effect

Identifying the global drivers of soil priming is essential to understanding C cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We conducted a survey of soils across 86 globally-distributed locations, spanning a wide range of climates, biotic communities, and soil conditions, and evaluated the apparent soil priming effect using 13 C-glucose labeling. Here we show that the magnitude of the positive apparent priming effect (increase in CO 2 release through accelerated microbial biomass turnover) was negatively associated with SOC content and microbial respiration rates. Our statistical modeling suggests that apparent priming effects tend to be negative in more mesic sites associated with higher SOC contents. In contrast, a single-input of labile C causes positive apparent priming effects in more arid locations with low SOC contents. Our results provide solid evidence that SOC content plays a critical role in regulating apparent priming effects, with important implications for the improvement of C cycling models under global change scenarios.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2025

Assessing the effect of coral reef restoration location on coastal flood hazard along the San Juan Coastline, Puerto Rico

Coastal resilience has become a pressing global issue due to the growing vulnerability of coastlines to the effects of climate change. Nature-based solutions have emerged as a promising approach to coastal protection to not only enhance coastal resilience, but also restore critical ecosystems. Coral reef restoration has the potential to provide ecosystem services benefits; however, there are still key uncertainties in linking restoration design to reductions in coastal flood hazard under current and future climate conditions. In this study, we applied one-dimensional and two-dimensional numerical coastal engineering models, calibrated and validated using field data, to evaluate the effectiveness of coral restoration scenarios on coastal waves, water levels, and flooding along the coast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, U.S.A. Model results indicate a small reduction in maximum water levels under the proposed restoration scenarios. This underscores the importance of these endeavors, not only for ecological preservation but also for preventing further reef deterioration. Such preservation is essential for mitigating the increased coastal risks anticipated in the future. Results from this study provide information to guide policymakers and coastal managers in making informed decisions on viable restoration project design options. By systematically evaluating how restoration location impacts coastal flood hazards, communities can develop and implement proactive strategies to mitigate flood-related risk. In addition, by restoring coral reefs, communities can contribute to environmental preservation while ensuring sustainable development and protection of coastal environments.

Puerto Rico, San Juan coastline↗
USGS2020

Conservation genomics in a changing arctic

Although logistically challenging to study, the Arctic is a bellwether for global change and is becoming a model for questions pertinent to the persistence of biodiversity. Disruption of Arctic ecosystems is accelerating, with impacts ranging from mixing of biotic communities to individual behavioral responses. Understanding these changes is crucial for conservation and sustainable economic development. Genomic approaches are providing transformative insights into biotic responses to environmental change, but have seen limited application in the Arctic due to a series of limitations. To meet the promise of genome analyses, we urge rigorous development of biorepositories from high latitudes to provide essential libraries to improve the conservation, monitoring, and management of Arctic ecosystems through genomic approaches.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2011

Biological dimensions of tern management-a case study of the least tern in Sonora, Mexico, and a comparative analysis of reproductive investment in terns

Least terns (Sternula antillarum) are threatened by rapid human development on the northern coast of Sonora, Mexico. Terns are bellwethers for changes along the world's coastlines, as their coastal breeding habitat is vulnerable to flooding and development. We conducted targeted ground and aerial surveys for least tern colonies along 160 kilometers of coast, and document our findings on colony sizes at nine sites over 3 years in the first portion of this report. Like many taxa, terns lay larger clutches at higher latitudes. In the second portion of this report, we evaluate least tern breeding lifespan, food availability, and nest predation as potential ecological reasons behind this differing clutch-size pattern. After correcting for phylogenetic relationships, we found that food availability, not breeding lifespan or nest predation rate, was related to reproductive investment across 46 species and populations of terns. We conclude that coastal development may have a greater impact on nesting terns in tropical regions as compared to temperate breeding locations, because global oceanic patterns of decreased food availability reduce reproductive investment in the tropics.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Simulating past and future fire impacts on Mediterranean ecosystems

Worldwide, large wildfires are becoming increasingly common, leading to economic damages and threatening ecosystems and human health. Under future climate change, more frequent fire disturbance may push ecosystems into non-forested alternative stable states. Fire-prone ecosystems such as those in the Mediterranean Basin are expected to be particularly vulnerable, but the position of tipping points is unclear. We compare long-term palaeoecological data from Sardinia with output from a process-based dynamic vegetation model to investigate the mechanisms controlling the complex interactions between fire, climate, and vegetation in the past and the future. Our results show that past vegetation changes from Erica -shrublands to mixed evergreen-broadleaved Quercus ilex -dominated forests were driven by a climate-induced fire regime shift. By simulating vegetation dynamics under varying fire regimes, we could reproduce Holocene vegetation trajectories and mechanistically identify tipping points. Without an immediate reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, we simulate future expansion of fire-prone Mediterranean maquis and increasing fire occurrence. Similarly, high anthropogenic ignition frequencies and plantations of non-native, highly flammable trees could induce a shift to fire-adapted Erica shrublands. However, our simulations indicate that if global warming can be kept below 2°C, Quercus ilex forests will be able to persist and effectively reduce fire occurrences and impacts, making them a valuable restoration target in Mediterranean ecosystems. Synthesis . By combining long-term records of ecosystem change with a dynamic vegetation model, we show that past climate-driven fire regime shifts were the main driver of vegetation change, creating alternative stable states that persisted over centuries. Projected future climate change exceeding Holocene variability leads to pronounced vegetation changes and increased fire risks in our simulations, requiring new fire management strategies to maintain current ecosystem services.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2026

Documentation of giant floater (Pyganodon grandis) glochidia attached to larval lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Native freshwater mussels (family Unionidae) are in decline globally, including in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Glochidia, the parasitic larvae of unionid mussels, typically attach to sub-adult and adult fishes. Attachment of glochidia to larval fishes is more rare, and a lack of documentation exists on glochidial attachment on fish in the Great Lakes in general. We document the attachment of four glochidia to three larval lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ) in shallow waters of Lake Superior, and we genetically identified the glochidia as giant floater ( Pyganodon grandis ). We only observed glochidia at 3% of all sites sampled on ∼0.02% of all fish (∼15,000) collected across lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron. Although glochidial encystment on larval lake whitefish may be rare, it may also be difficult to detect with conventional sampling methods. Regardless, the association could have important implications for the ecology and conservation of both unionids and coregonines in the ever-changing Great Lakes.

Michigan, Ontario, Wisconsin↗
USGS2016

A synthetic review of notoedres species mites and mange

Notoedric mange, caused by obligately parasitic sarcoptiform Notoedres mites, is associated with potentially fatal dermatitis with secondary systemic disease in small mammals, felids and procyonids among others, as well as an occasional zoonosis. We describe clinical spectra in non-chiropteran hosts, review risk factors and summarize ecological and epidemiological studies. The genus is disproportionately represented on rodents. Disease in felids and procyonids ranges from very mild to death. Knowledge of the geographical distribution of the mites is highly inadequate, with focal hot spots known for Notoedres cati in domestic cats and bobcats. Predisposing genetic and immunological factors are not known, except that co-infection with other parasites and anticoagulant rodenticide toxicoses may contribute to severe disease. Treatment of individual animals is typically successful with macrocytic lactones such as selamectin, but herd or wildlife population treatment has not been undertaken. Transmission requires close contact and typically is within a host species. Notoedric mange can kill half all individuals in a population and regulate host population below non-diseased density for decades, consistent with frequency-dependent transmission or spillover from other hosts. Epidemics are increasingly identified in various hosts, suggesting global change in suitable environmental conditions or increased reporting bias.

Parasitology↗
USGS2020

Machine learning identifies a strong association between warming and reduced primary productivity in an oligotrophic ocean gyre

Phytoplankton play key roles in the oceans by regulating global biogeochemical cycles and production in marine food webs. Global warming is thought to affect phytoplankton production both directly, by impacting their photosynthetic metabolism, and indirectly by modifying the physical environment in which they grow. In this respect, the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) in the Sargasso Sea (North Atlantic gyre) provides a unique opportunity to explore effects of warming on phytoplankton production across the vast oligotrophic ocean regions because it is one of the few multidecadal records of measured net primary productivity (NPP). We analysed the time series of phytoplankton primary productivity at BATS site using machine learning techniques (ML) to show that increased water temperature over a 27-year period (1990–2016), and the consequent weakening of vertical mixing in the upper ocean, induced a negative feedback on phytoplankton productivity by reducing the availability of essential resources, nitrogen and light. The unbalanced availability of these resources with warming, coupled with ecological changes at the community level, is expected to intensify the oligotrophic state of open-ocean regions that are far from land-based nutrient sources.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS1996

Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions: A case study at 6000 years B.P.

Previous climate model simulations have shown that the configuration of the Earth's orbit during the early to mid-Holocene (approximately 10–5 kyr) can account for the generally warmer-than-present conditions experienced by the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. New simulations for 6 kyr with two atmospheric/mixed-layer ocean models (Community Climate Model, version 1, CCMl, and Global ENvironmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems, version 2, GENESIS 2) are presented here and compared with results from two previous simulations with GENESIS 1 that were obtained with and without the albedo feedback due to climate-induced poleward expansion of the boreal forest. The climate model results are summarized in the form of potential vegetation maps obtained with the global BIOME model, which facilitates visual comparisons both among models and with pollen and plant macrofossil data recording shifts of the forest-tundra boundary. A preliminary synthesis shows that the forest limit was shifted 100–200 km north in most sectors. Both CCMl and GENESIS 2 produced a shift of this magnitude. GENESIS 1 however produced too small a shift, except when the boreal forest albedo feedback was included. The feedback in this case was estimated to have amplified forest expansion by approximately 50%. The forest limit changes also show meridional patterns (greatest expansion in central Siberia and little or none in Alaska and Labrador) which have yet to be reproduced by models. Further progress in understanding of the processes involved in the response of climate and vegetation to orbital forcing will require both the deployment of coupled atmosphere-biosphere-ocean models and the development of more comprehensive observational data sets.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗