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Oil-shale resource investigations of the U.S. Geological Survey

The decade of the 1970's so far has been marked by a sharply increased dependence by the United States on foreign sources of energy. Although this dependence had been growing for the previous 20 years, it was made clearly visible to the American public by the Arab oil embargo of 1973. Since then, energy has remained a topic of public discussion and concern. The current imbalance between U.S. energy supply and demand and the generally recognized need to increase the domestic production of energy make it appropriate to review our present knowledge of U.S. mineral fuel resources--coal, oil, natural gas, oil shale, and uranium--which in 1975 provided 95 percent of the energy produced in the United States. These conditions also warrant a description of the research that is being done to improve our understanding of these resources, and to determine the effects on the environment of their development. This is one of four reports on the energy resource investigations being conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey to assess the Nation's coal, oil and gas, oil shale, and uranium and thorium resources. Two other reports provide information about the Geological Survey's programs for assessing the petroleum resources of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf and for identifying the environmental factors that could affect their development. The description of the Geological Survey's oil-shale investigations is presented in this report in the context of the underlying socio-economic problem of expanding the domestic production of oil and gas while maintaining acceptable environmental standards. This orientation toward a national mission characterizes each segment of the Geological Survey's energy resources and marine geology programs. Readers who want information about the individual projects that comprise the Oil-Shale Program will find it in the appendices, which also include a bibliography. It is hoped that this report will give scientists, science administrators, and policy makers, both in government and in the private sector, as well as the general public, a better understanding of the relation of oil shale resources to the Nation's requirements for energy and of the importance of a carefully planned research program of resource assessment and environmental research on this future energy commodity.

Open-File Report↗

Managing the threat of infectious disease in fisheries and aquaculture using structured decision making

Fisheries and aquaculture provide food and economic security, especially in the developing world, but both face challenges from infectious disease. Here, we consider management of disease issues from a structured decision-making perspective to examine how infectious disease can threaten seafood production and influence management decisions. For both wild fisheries and aquaculture, disease-management objectives generally aim to mitigate the severity and economic burden of outbreaks. General management strategies include manipulating host densities, reducing system connectivity, conserving or improving habitat, and implementing direct treatments or some other biological interventions. To inform decisions, mathematical models can be used to explore disease dynamics and to forecast the potential effectiveness of alternative management actions. Developing and implementing disease-management strategies also involve considering uncertainties and balancing competing stakeholder interests and risk tolerances. We conclude by outlining several steps for applying structured decision making that are broadly useful to decision makers facing issues related to disease.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

Hydrogeologic framework refinement, ground-water flow and storage, water-chemistry analyses, and water-budget components of the Yuma area, southwestern Arizona and southeastern California

The ground-water and surface-water system in the Yuma area in southwestern Arizona and southeastern California is managed intensely to meet water-delivery requirements of customers in the United States, to manage high ground-water levels in the valleys, and to maintain treaty-mandated water-quality and quantity requirements of Mexico. The following components in this report, which were identified to be useful in the development of a ground-water management model, are: (1) refinement of the hydrogeologic framework; (2) updated water-level maps, general ground-water flow patterns, and an estimate of the amount of ground water stored in the mound under Yuma Mesa; (3) review and documentation of the ground-water budget calculated by the Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Department of the Interior (Reclamation); and (4) water-chemistry characterization to identify the spatial distribution of water quality, information on sources and ages of ground water, and information about the productive-interval depths of the aquifer. A refined three-dimensional digital hydrogeologic framework model includes the following hydrogeologic units from bottom to top: (1) the effective hydrologic basement of the basin aquifer, which includes the Pliocene Bouse Formation, Tertiary volcanic and sedimentary rocks, and pre-Tertiary metamorphic and plutonic rocks; (2) undifferentiated lower units to represent the Pliocene transition zone and wedge zone; (3) coarse-gravel unit; (4) lower, middle, and upper basin fill to represent the upper, fine-grained zone between the top of the coarse-gravel unit and the land surface; and (5) clay A and clay B. Data for the refined model includes digital elevation models, borehole lithology data, geophysical data, and structural data to represent the geometry of the hydrogeologic units. The top surface of the coarse-gravel unit, defined by using borehole and geophysical data, varies similarly to terraces resulting from the down cutting of the Colorado River. Clay A is nearly the same as the previous conceptual hydrogeologic model definition (Olmsted and others, 1973), except for a minor westward extension from the city of Yuma. Clay B is extended to the southerly international boundary and increased in areal extent by about two-thirds of the original extent (Olmsted and others, 1973). The other hydrogeologic units generally are the same as in the previous conceptual hydrogeologic model. Before development, the Colorado and Gila Rivers were the sources of nearly all the ground water in the Yuma area through direct infiltration of water from river channels and annual overbank flooding. After construction of upstream reservoirs and clearing and irrigation of the floodplains, the rivers now act as drains for the ground water. Ground-water levels in most of the Yuma area are higher now than they were in predevelopment time. A general gradient of ground-water flow toward the natural discharge area south of the Yuma area still exists, but many other changes in flow are evident. Ground water in Yuma Valley once flowed away from the Colorado River, but now has a component of flow towards the river and Mexicali Valley. A ground-water mound has formed under Yuma Mesa from long-term surface-water irrigation; about 600,000 to 800,000 acre-ft of water are stored in the mound. Ground-water withdrawals adjacent to the southerly international boundary have resulted in water-level declines in that area. The reviewed and documented water budget includes the following components: (1) recharge in irrigated areas, (2) evapotranspiration by irrigated crops and phreatophytes, (3) ground-water return flow to the Colorado River, and (4) ground-water withdrawals (including those in Mexicali Valley). Recharge components were calculated by subtracting the amount of water used by crops from the amount of water delivered. Evapotranspiration rates were calculated on the basis of established methods, thus were appropriate for input to the ground-water flow model developed by the Bureau of Reclamation (William Greer, hydrologist, Bureau of Reclamation, written commun., 2005). Evapotranspiration by crops and phreatophytes were calculated by using crop coefficient methods and meteorological data. Other methods of calculating evapotranspiration rates by using combinations of satellite imagery and ground-based data could be used for higher spatial and temporal resolution. Ground-water return flow during years of low flow on the Colorado River (1972–82, 1987–92, and 1994–96) averaged 79,000 acre-ft per year. Ground-water withdrawal data for 1970–99 were similar to other estimates made by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Yuma area. New water-chemistry data were collected in 12 wells and 8 canals/drains to characterize spatial patterns in chemical constituents, determine isotopic ages of water, infer possible sources of ground water, and locate the vertical intervals of the aquifer that contribute most water to wells. Depth-dependent samples were collected at one of the wells (YM-10). A large quantity of water-quality data were compiled from Bureau of Reclamation and U.S. Geological Survey records and merged into the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System database. New samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, tritium ( 3 H), and carbon-14 ( 14 C) (along with C 13 /C 12 ratios). Light values of oxygen-18 ( 18 O) and deuterium ( 2 H, D) in well 242-2 indicate recharge from the Colorado River. Heavy water samples from wells 242-22, CADC, and Mesa del Sol indicate local recharge sources. Tritium data indicate there is young water in wells in the valleys and near the edge of Yuma Mesa, while older water is found far from the Colorado River. 14 C data indicate that water from wells near the southerly international boundary is at least several thousand years old.

Arizona, California↗

Review of the USA National Phenology Network

In January 2014, leadership from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Ecosystems Mission Area commissioned a review of the USA National Phenology Network (USA–NPN) Program. The Ecosystems Mission Area has a key stake in the USA–NPN, providing both supervision of its Director and most of the appropriated funds. The products and objectives of the program are relevant to six of the seven USGS Mission Areas as well as to at least four Department of the Interior (DOI) bureaus. A nine-person panel of reviewers, with representatives from the USGS, other Federal agencies, and academia, was convened to provide advice and recommendations to USGS leadership. Specifically, the panel was asked to assess the science utility of having a National Phenology Network; to consider USGS science mission and DOI management needs served by the USA–NPN; and to consider the utility of the USA–NPN to other Federal agency science missions or management needs (including the National Science Foundation [NSF] and university research funded by the NSF and other government agencies). This report summarizes the panel’s findings and offers five recommendations for USGS leadership: 1. Commit to stable USA–NPN funding and increase accountability. 2. Establish a Federal Steering Committee, led by the USGS, and a separate Scientific Phenology User Group. 3. Emphasize continental-scale phenology data and information. 4. Formalize volunteer engagement in phenology data collection. 5. Integrate phenology information into USGS science. The panel generally affirms the value of the USA–NPN program and finds that the program is successfully meeting the needs of its stakeholders, including the USGS. However, the USGS needs to be more engaged in the program, providing leadership and setting priorities for the future. The USA–NPN, in turn, needs to deliver more clearly defined, DOI-relevant, USGS-integrated, data product lines that have the broadest possible spatial and temporal scope to meet user needs across the United States. The panel recommends that the USA–NPN National Coordinating Office (NCO) establish an implementation plan that addresses all of the panel recommendations, with priorities, timelines, and assumptions to move the program forward successfully.

Circular↗

Hydrology of area 38, Western Region, Interior Coal Province, Iowa and Missouri

A nationwide need for information characterizing hydrologic conditions in mined and potential mine areas has become paramount with the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977. This report is designed to be useful to the mine owners, operators, and others by presenting information about the existing hydrologic conditions and by identifying sources of hydrologic information. General hydrologic information is presented using a brief text with an accompanying map, chart, graph, or other illustration for each of a series of water-resources-related topics. The summation of the topical discussions provides a description of the hydrology of the area. Coal has been mined for 130 years in Area 38, but large reserves remain. Production peaked in 1917 when Iowa produced 9 million tons and Missouri produced 6 million tons. Underground mining has been replaced by surface mining in Area 38. Not all past surface-mined lands are subject to reclamation under recently enacted reclamation laws. The surface-water monitoring network in Area 38 consists of 183 stations. Streamflow varies seasonally and from year to year. Water-quality data are available for 49 stations in the study area. Measurements of specific conductance, dissolved solids, pH, alkalinity, sulfate, iron, manganese, trace metals and other constituents are available for 36 stations operated between 1978 and 1981 expressly for the collection of water-quality data within basins containing coal mines. A cumulative impact of coal mining on the mineralization of surface water is evident from specific-conductance data for stations downstream from mining activities. Alkalinity in streams in Area 38 averaged greater than 118 milligrams per liter, providing the capability to neutralize acid-mine drainage to some extent. Sulfate concentrations in streamflow averaged 88 milligrams per liter at stations upstream from coal mines and 269 milligrams per liter at stations downstream from coal mines. Significant relationships exist between totalrecoverable-iron concentrations and suspendedsediment concentrations. Manganese concentrations are larger in streams draining mined areas. Streamflow at 5 of the 36 coal-hydrology stations in Area 38, all located downstream from coal mines, exceeded acid-mine-drainage criteria at one time or another. In Area 38 dissolved-solids concentrations in water from the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer range from 300 to 15,000 milligrams per liter; in southcentral Iowa and where the aquifer underlies the Missouri River alluvium, as in Boone County, Missouri, dissolved-solids concentrations are less than 1,000 milligrams per liter. In these areas the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer is suitable for domestic and other uses. Chemical quality of water from Quaternary aquifers generally is suitable for domestic uses and other uses, dissolved-solids concentrations averaged less than 1,000 milligrams per liter. Iron, manganese and nitrate are excessive in some instances. Chemical quality of water from Mississippian and Pennsylvanian aquifers is unsuitable for domestic use and may be unsuitable for other uses. The Pennsylvanian and Misissippian aquifers have average sulfate concentrations in excess of 1,000 milligrams per liter.

Iowa, Missouri↗

Bayesian analysis of the impact of rainfall data product on simulated slope failure for North Carolina locations

In the past decades, many different approaches have been developed in the literature to quantify the load-carrying capacity and geotechnical stability (or the Factor of Safety, F_s) of variably saturated hillslopes. Much of this work has focused on a deterministic characterization of hillslope stability. Yet, simulated F_s values are subject to considerable uncertainty due to our inability to characterize accurately the soil mantle’s properties (hydraulic, geotechnical and geomorphologic) and spatiotemporal variability of the moisture content of the hillslope interior. This is particularly true at larger spatial scales. Thus, uncertainty-incorporating analyses of physically based models of rain-induced landslides are rare in the literature. Such landslide modeling is typically conducted at the hillslope scale using gauge-based rainfall forcing data with rather poor spatiotemporal coverage. For regional landslide modeling, the specific advantages and/or disadvantages of gauge-only, radar-merged and satellite-based rainfall products are not clearly established. Here, we compare and evaluate the performance of the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability analysis (TRIGRS) model for three different rainfall products using 112 observed landslides in the period between 2004 and 2011 from the North Carolina Geological Survey database. Our study includes the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis Version 7 (TMPA V7), the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) analysis, and the reference ‘truth’ Stage IV precipitation. TRIGRS model performance was rather inferior with the use of literature values of the geotechnical parameters and soil hydraulic properties from ROSETTA using soil textural and bulk density data from SSURGO (Soil Survey Geographic database). The performance of TRIGRS improved considerably after Bayesian estimation of the parameters with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm using Stage IV precipitation data. Hereto, we use a likelihood function that combines binary slope failure information from landslide event and ‘null’ periods using multivariate frequency distribution-based metrics such as the False Discovery and False Omission Rates. Our results demonstrate that the Stage IV-inferred TRIGRS parameter distributions generalize well to TMPA and NLDAS-2 precipitation data, particularly at sites with considerably larger TMPA and NLDAS-2 rainfall amounts during landslide events than null periods. TRIGRS model performance is then rather similar for all three rainfall products. At higher elevations, however, the TMPA and NLDAS-2 precipitation volumes are insufficient and their performance with the Stage IV-derived parameter distributions indicate their inability to accurately characterize hillslope stability.

North Carolina↗

Guidelines for design and sampling for cyanobacterial toxin and taste-and-odor studies in lakes and reservoirs

Cyanobacteria and associated toxins and taste-and-odor compounds are of increasing environmental concern. However, consistent guidelines for the development of studies assessing cyanobacterial toxins and taste-and-odor compounds presently are not available. This report provides guidance for the development of scientific studies of cyanobacteria and associated by-products in lakes and reservoirs. Topics include: background information on cyanobacteria, toxins, and taste-and-odor compounds; spatial and temporal considerations that are unique to the cyanobacteria in lakes and reservoirs; common study types, objectives, and approaches for studies of cyanobacteria and associated toxins and taste-and-odor compounds; general guidelines for collecting samples; and information on sample handling, preparation, processing, and shipping.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Characteristics of some silver-, and base metal-bearing, epithermal deposits of Mexico and Peru

Introduction Lithotectonic, mineralogical, and geochemical data on two silver- and base metal-bearing deposits from Peru and two from Mexico are compiled to facilitate comparisons with other epithermal deposits. Silver and base metal-bearing deposits of Mexico and Peru constitute an important portion of the world silver production derived from shallow, vein-type deposits hosted in volcanic rocks. Although these deposits are generally similar to epithermal deposits of Nevada and Colorado in the western United States, they have some important differences. Because of this, data on the geological attributes of these deposits are very useful for developing models of ore formation that can be used in mineral exploration. The data collected for this compilation are presented in the following pages in summaries of the important characteristics of each deposit. This compilation, which shows the complexities in the geology of epithermal ore deposits in Mexico and Peru, serves as a basis for further comparisons among epithermal deposits throughout the world. The case studies provide data useful to geologists and exploration!'sts interested in developing models of ore formation to be used in exploration for mineral deposits of this type. The deposits described in this report are the Guanajuato district of Guanajuato, Mexico, the Pachuca-Real del Monte district of Hidalgo, Mexico, the Colqui district of Lima, Peru, and the Julcani district of Huancavelica, Peru. Although many characteristics of the geology and geochemistry of this type of deposit were considered, the most important criterion for choosing these deposits was that they have substantial quantities of precious- and base-metal mineralization. Additional criteria for selecting the deposits were that they be hosted primarily by calc-alkaline volcanic rocks of intermediate to silicic composition and that they be younger than Tertiary in age. Many deposits in Mexico and Peru and other parts of Central and South America were excluded because the literature describing the districts is not readily available. Furthermore, many districts have not been examined in detail or the information available is of limited geological scope. The four districts that are compiled in this report were chosen because they are described in abundant literature dating from early mining reports on the general geology and mineralogy to very recent data on detailed geochemical and mineralogical studies. They were chosen as being fairly typical, classic examples of near-surface, low-temperature vein deposits as described by Lindgren (1928) in his treatise on ore deposits (Mineral deposits, McGraw-Hill, 1049 p.). These deposits are similar in aspects of their geology and geochemistry to many of the famous, epithermal silver mining districts in Colorado and Nevada including Creede, Colorado, Tonapah, Nevada, and the Sunnyside Mine of the Eureka district, Colorado, and, in the special case of Julcani, to Summitville, Colorado, and Goldfield, Nevada. The characteristics that distinguish them include overall size, production and alteration assemblage. The information documented in each summary will be used in a forthcoming series of papers on the comparative anatomy of precious and base metal deposits in North and South America.

Guanajuato, Hidalgo. Huancavelica, Lima↗

Characterization of highly informative cross-species microsatellite panels for the Australian dugong (Dugong dugon) and Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) including five novel primers

The Australian dugong (Dugong dugon) and Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) are threatened species of aquatic mammals in the order Sirenia. Sirenian conservation and management actions would benefit from a more complete understanding of genetic diversity and population structure. Generally, species-specific microsatellite markers are employed in conservation genetic studies; however, robust markers can be difficult and costly to isolate. To increase the number of available markers, dugong and manatee microsatellite primers were evaluated for cross-species amplification. Furthermore, one manatee and four dugong novel primers are reported. After polymerase chain reaction optimization, 23 (92%) manatee primers successfully amplified dugong DNA, of which 11 (48%) were polymorphic. Of the 32 dugong primers tested, 27 (84%) yielded product in the manatee, of which 17 (63%) were polymorphic. Dugong and manatee primers were compared and the most informative markers were selected to create robust and informative marker-panels for each species. These crossspecies microsatellite marker-panels can be employed to assess other sirenian populations and can provide beneficial information for the protection and management of these unique mammals.

Molecular Ecology Resources↗

Digital mapping techniques '00, workshop proceedings - May 17-20, 2000, Lexington, Kentucky

Introduction: The Digital Mapping Techniques '00 (DMT'00) workshop was attended by 99 technical experts from 42 agencies, universities, and private companies, including representatives from 28 state geological surveys (see Appendix A). This workshop was similar in nature to the first three meetings, held in June, 1997, in Lawrence, Kansas (Soller, 1997), in May, 1998, in Champaign, Illinois (Soller, 1998a), and in May, 1999, in Madison, Wisconsin (Soller, 1999). This year's meeting was hosted by the Kentucky Geological Survey, from May 17 to 20, 2000, on the University of Kentucky campus in Lexington. As in the previous meetings, the objective was to foster informal discussion and exchange of technical information. When, based on discussions at the workshop, an attendee adopts or modifies a newly learned technique, the workshop clearly has met that objective. Evidence of learning and cooperation among participating agencies continued to be a highlight of the DMT workshops (see example in Soller, 1998b, and various papers in this volume). The meeting's general goal was to help move the state geological surveys and the USGS toward development of more cost-effective, flexible, and useful systems for digital mapping and geographic information systems (GIS) analysis. Through oral and poster presentations and special discussion sessions, emphasis was given to: 1) methods for creating and publishing map products (here, 'publishing' includes Web-based release); 2) continued development of the National Geologic Map Database; 3) progress toward building a standard geologic map data model; 4) field data-collection systems; and 5) map citation and authorship guidelines. Four representatives of the GIS hardware and software vendor community were invited to participate. The four annual DMT workshops were coordinated by the AASG/USGS Data Capture Working Group, which was formed in August, 1996, to support the Association of American State Geologists and the USGS in their effort to build a National Geologic Map Database (see Soller and Berg, this volume, and http://ncgmp.usgs.gov/ngmdbproject/standards/datacapt/). The Working Group was formed because increased production efficiencies, standardization, and quality of digital map products were needed to help the Database, and the State and Federal geological surveys, provide more high-quality digital maps to the public.

Open-File Report↗

Digital mapping techniques '99 -- workshop proceedings

The Digital Mapping Techniques '99 (DMT'99) workshop was attended by 91 technical experts from 42 agencies, universities, and private companies, including representatives from 30 state geological surveys (see Appendix A ). This workshop was similar in nature to the first two meetings, held in June, 1997, in Lawrence, Kansas (Soller, 1997), and in May, 1998, in Champaign, Illinois (Soller, 1998a). This year's meeting was hosted by the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey, from May 19 to 22, 1999, on the University of Wisconsin campus in Madison. As in the previous meetings, the objective was to foster informal discussion and exchange of technical information. When, based on discussions at the workshop, an attendee adopts or modifies a newly learned technique, the workshop clearly has met that objective. Evidence of learning and cooperation among participating agencies continued to be a highlight of the DMT workshops (see example in Soller, 1998b, and various papers in this volume). The meeting's general goal was to help move the state geological surveys and the USGS toward development of more cost-effective, flexible, and useful systems for digital mapping and geographic information systems (GIS) analysis. Through oral and poster presentations and special discussion sessions, emphasis was given to: 1) methods for creating and publishing map products (here, ìpublishingî includes Web-based release); 2) continued development of the National Geologic Map Database; and 3) progress toward building a standard geologic map data model. Especially to support the interest in map preparation and publication, five representatives of the GIS hardware and software vendor community were invited to participate. The three annual DMT workshops were coordinated by the AASG/USGS Data Capture Working Group, which was formed in August, 1996, to support the Association of American State Geologists and the USGS in their effort to build a National Geologic Map Database (see Soller and Berg, this volume, and http://ncgmp.usgs.gov/ngmdbproject/standards/datacapt/datacaptureWG.html ). The Working Group was formed because increased production efficiencies, standardization, and quality of digital map products were needed to help the Database, and the State and Federal geological surveys, provide more high-quality digital maps to the public.

Open-File Report↗

Reducing risk where tectonic plates collide—U.S. Geological Survey subduction zone science plan

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) serves the Nation by providing reliable scientific information and tools to build resilience in communities exposed to subduction zone earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. Improving the application of USGS science to successfully reduce risk from these events relies on whole community efforts, with continuing partnerships among scientists and stakeholders, including researchers from universities, other government labs and private industry, land-use planners, engineers, policy-makers, emergency managers and responders, business owners, insurance providers, the media, and the general public. Motivated by recent technological advances and increased awareness of our growing vulnerability to subduction-zone hazards, the USGS is uniquely positioned to take a major step forward in the science it conducts and products it provides, building on its tradition of using long-term monitoring and research to develop effective products for hazard mitigation. This science plan provides a blueprint both for prioritizing USGS science activities and for delineating USGS interests and potential participation in subduction zone science supported by its partners. The activities in this plan address many USGS stakeholder needs: High-fidelity tools and user-tailored information that facilitate increasingly more targeted, neighborhood-scale decisions to mitigate risks more cost-effectively and ensure post-event operability. Such tools may include maps, tables, and simulated earthquake ground-motion records conveying shaking intensity and frequency. These facilitate the prioritization of retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure; Information to guide local land-use and response planning to minimize development in likely hazardous zones (for example, databases, maps, and scenario documents to guide evacuation route planning in communities near volcanoes, along coastlines vulnerable to tsunamis, and built on landslide-prone terrain); New tools to assess the potential for cascading hazards, such as landslides, tsunamis, coastal changes, and flooding caused by earthquakes or volcanic eruptions; Geospatial models of permanent, widespread land- and sea-level changes that may occur in the immediate aftermath of great ( M ≥8.0) subduction zone earthquakes; Strong partnerships between scientists and public safety providers for effective decision making during periods of elevated hazard and risk; Accurate forecasts of far-reaching hazards (for example, ash clouds, tsunamis) to avert catastrophes and unnecessary disruptions in air and sea transportation; Aftershock forecasts to guide decisions about when and where to re-enter, repair, or rebuild buildings and infrastructure, for all types of subduction zone earthquakes.

Circular↗

A model for field toxicity tests

Toxicity tests conducted under field conditions present an interesting challenge for statistical modelling. In contrast to laboratory tests, the concentrations of potential toxicants are not held constant over the test. In addition, the number and identity of toxicants that belong in a model as explanatory factors are not known and must be determined through a model selection process. We present one model to deal with these needs. This model takes the record of mortalities to form a multinomial distribution in which parameters are modelled as products of conditional daily survival probabilities. These conditional probabilities are in turn modelled as logistic functions of the explanatory factors. The model incorporates lagged values of the explanatory factors to deal with changes in the pattern of mortalities over time. The issue of model selection and assessment is approached through the use of generalized information criteria and power divergence goodness-of-fit tests. These model selection criteria are applied in a cross-validation scheme designed to assess the ability of a model to both fit data used in estimation and predict data deleted from the estimation data set. The example presented demonstrates the need for inclusion of lagged values of the explanatory factors and suggests that penalized likelihood criteria may not provide adequate protection against overparameterized models in model selection.

Environmetrics↗

Gap analysis: Concepts, methods, and recent results

Rapid progress is being made in the conceptual, technical, and organizational requirements for generating synoptic multi-scale views of the earth's surface and its biological content. Using the spatially comprehensive data that are now available, researchers, land managers, and land-use planners can, for the first time, quantitatively place landscape units - from general categories such as 'Forests' or 'Cold-Deciduous Shrubland Formation' to more categories such as 'Picea glauca-Abies balsamea-Populus spp. Forest Alliance' - in their large-area contexts. The National Gap Analysis Program (GAP) has developed the technical and organizational capabilities necessary for the regular production and analysis of such information. This paper provides a brief overview of concepts and methods as well as some recent results from the GAP projects. Clearly, new frameworks for biogeographic information and organizational cooperation are needed if we are to have any hope of documenting the full range of species occurrences and ecological processes in ways meaningful to their management. The GAP experience provides one model for achieving these new frameworks.

Landscape Ecology↗

Surficial Geologic Map of The Loop and Druid Arch Quadrangles, Canyonlands National Park, Utah

This geologic map is a product of a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. National Park Service to provide geologic information about this part of Canyonlands National Park, Utah. This digital map database contains bedrock data from previously published data that has been modified by the author. New mapping of the surficial deposits represents the general distribution of surficial deposits of the Druid Arch and The Loop 7.5-minute quadrangles.

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map↗

Maps showing petroleum exploration intensity and production in major Cambrian to Ordovician reservoir rocks in the Anadarko Basin

The Anadarko basin is a large, deep, two-stage Paleozoic basin (Feinstein, 1981) that is petroleum rich and generally well explored. The Anadarko basin province, a geogrphic area used here mostly for the convenience of mapping and data management, is defined by political boundaries that include the Anadarko basin proper. The boundaries of the province are identical to those used by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in the 1995 National Assessment of United Stated Oil and Gas Resources. The data in this report, also identical to those used in the national assessment, are from several computerized data bases including Nehring Research Group (NRG) Associates Inc., Significant Oil and Gas Fields of the United States (1992); Petroleum Information (PI), Inc., Well History Control System (1991); and Petroleum Information (PI), Inc., Petro-ROM: Production data on CD-ROM (1993). Although generated mostly in response to the national assessment, the data presented here arc grouped differently and arc displayed and described in greater detail. In addition, the stratigraphic sequences discussed may not necessarily correlate with the "plays" of the 1995 national assessment. This report uses computer-generated maps to show drilling intensity, producing wells, major fields, and other geologic information relevant to petroleum exploration and production in the lower Paleozoic part of the Anadarko basin province as defined for the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 national petroleum assessment. Hydrocarbon accumulations must meet a minimum standard of 1 million barrels of oil (MMBO) or 6 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFG) estimated ultimate recovery to be included in this report as a major field or revoir. Mapped strata in this report include the Upper Cambrian to Lower Ordovician Arbuckle and Low Ordovician Ellenburger Groups, the Middle Ordovician Simpson Group, and the Middle to Upper Ordovician Viola Group.

Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas↗

The World Coal Quality Inventory: A status report

National and international policy makers and industry require accurate information on coal, including coal quality data, to make informed decisions regarding international import needs and export opportunities, foreign policy, technology transfer policies, foreign investment prospects, environmental and health assessments, and byproduct use and disposal issues. Unfortunately, the information needed is generally proprietary and does not exist in the public domain. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in conjunction with partners in about 60 countries, is developing a digital compilation of worldwide coal quality. The World Coal Quality Inventory (WoCQI) will contain coal quality information for samples obtained from major coal beds in countries having significant coal production, as well as from many countries producing smaller volumes of coal, with an emphasis on coals currently being burned. The information that will be incorporated includes, but is not limited to, proximate and ultimate analyses; sulfur-form data; major, minor, and trace element analysis; and semi-quantitative analyses of minerals, modes of occurrence, and petrography. The coal quality information will eventually be linked to a Geographic Information System (GIS) that shows the coal basins and sample locations along with geologic, land use, transportation, industrial, and cultural information. The WoCQI will be accessible on the USGS web page and new data added periodically. This multi-national collaboration is developing global coal quality data that contain a broad array of technologic, economic, and environmental parameters, which should help to ensure the efficient and environmentally compatible use of global coal resources in the 21st century.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

A reporting format for leaf-level gas exchange data and metadata

Leaf-level gas exchange data support the mechanistic understanding of plant fluxes of carbon and water. These fluxes inform our understanding of ecosystem function, are an important constraint on parameterization of terrestrial biosphere models, are necessary to understand the response of plants to global environmental change, and are integral to efforts to improve crop production. Collection of these data using gas analyzers can be both technically challenging and time consuming, and individual studies generally focus on a small range of species, restricted time periods, or limited geographic regions. The high value of these data is exemplified by the many publications that reuse and synthesize gas exchange data, however the lack of metadata and data reporting conventions make full and efficient use of these data difficult. Here we propose a reporting format for leaf-level gas exchange data and metadata to provide guidance to data contributors on how to store data in repositories to maximize their discoverability, facilitate their efficient reuse, and add value to individual datasets. For data users, the reporting format will better allow data repositories to optimize data search and extraction, and more readily integrate similar data into harmonized synthesis products. The reporting format specifies data table variable naming and unit conventions, as well as metadata characterizing experimental conditions and protocols. For common data types that were the focus of this initial version of the reporting format, i.e., survey measurements, dark respiration, carbon dioxide and light response curves, and parameters derived from those measurements, we took a further step of defining required additional data and metadata that would maximize the potential reuse of those data types. To aid data contributors and the development of data ingest tools by data repositories we provided a translation table comparing the outputs of common gas exchange instruments. Extensive consultation with data collectors, data users, instrument manufacturers, and data scientists was undertaken in order to ensure that the reporting format met community needs. The reporting format presented here is intended to form a foundation for future development that will incorporate additional data types and variables as gas exchange systems and measurement approaches advance in the future. The reporting format is published in the U.S. Department of Energy's ESS-DIVE data repository, with documentation and future development efforts being maintained in a version control system.

Ecological Informatics↗