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USGS2026

Disease, drought, and warming: A triple threat to a declining high-elevation amphibian

Managing species in an uncertain future is a reality for natural resource decision makers. Climate change is expected to exacerbate threats such as habitat loss and disease, and cause phenological mismatches, but there is uncertainty in the magnitude of these effects. Amphibians are among the most threatened taxa on earth, and most species in North America are uniquely tied to water availability for breeding, larval development, thermal refugia, and food availability. Changes in water availability and temperature may result in phenological mismatches with one or more of these processes. Thus, quantifying the dependency of amphibians to water on the landscape is critical to understanding how species may respond, as well as understanding the interplay with other threats, such as disease. We developed a dynamic co-occurrence occupancy model to explore the effects of climate change on the breeding occurrence of boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas ) and the amphibian chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis , Bd) in the southern Rocky Mountains (SRM). We derived novel covariates to test hypotheses related to multi-generational impacts of climate on the dynamics of both boreal toad breeding and Bd. We report estimates of current (2001–2019) and future (2055–2069) occupancy under a range of plausible climate scenarios. The probability of boreal toad breeding occurrence at a site in the SRM declined > 40% from 2001 to 2019, and further declines are likely under future scenarios, particularly as active season length increases. To help integrate this information into management, we developed a web-based decision support tool to summarize predicted future hydrological and occupancy conditions.

Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming↗

USGS2006

Report of the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Modeling Workshop, Pacific Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA, March 22-23, 2005

A U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology (CMG) Modeling Workshop was held to discuss the general topic of coastal modeling, defined broadly to include circulation, waves, sediment transport, water quality, ecology, sediment diagenesis, morphology change, and coastal evolution, on scales ranging from seconds and a few centimeters (individual ripples) to centuries (coastal evolution) and thousands of kilometers (tsunami propagation). The workshop was convened at the suggestion of CMG Program Management to improve communication among modelers and model users, assess modeling-related activities being conducted at the three centers (Florida Integrated Science Center, FISC; Pacific Marine Science Center; PMSC; and Woods Hole Science Center; WHSC), and develop goals, strategies, and plans for future modeling activities. The workshop represents a step toward developing a five-year strategic plan, and was timed to provide input for the FY06 prospectus. The workshop was held at the USGS Pacific Marine Science Center in Santa Cruz on March 22-23, 2005.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Balancing future renewable energy infrastructure siting and associated habitat loss for migrating whooping cranes

The expansion of human infrastructure has contributed to novel risks and disturbance regimes in most ecosystems, leading to considerable uncertainty about how species will respond to altered landscapes. A recent assessment revealed that whooping cranes ( Grus americana ), an endangered migratory waterbird species, avoid wind-energy infrastructure during migration. However, uncertainties regarding collective impacts of other types of human infrastructure, such as power lines on migration, variable drought conditions, and continued construction of wind energy infrastructure may compromise ongoing recovery efforts for whooping cranes. Droughts are increasing in frequency and severity throughout the whooping crane migration corridor, and the impacts of drought on stopover habitat use are largely unknown. Moreover, decision-based analyses are increasingly advocated to guide recovery planning for endangered species, yet applications remain rare. Using GPS locations from 57 whooping cranes from 2010 through 2016 in the United States Great Plains, we assessed habitat selection and avoidance of potential disturbances during migration relative to drought conditions, and we used these results in an optimization analysis to select potential sites for new wind energy developments that minimize relative habitat loss for whooping cranes and maximize wind energy potential. Drought occurrence and severity varied spatially and temporally across the migration corridor during our study period. Whooping cranes rarely used areas <5 km from human settlements and wind energy infrastructure under both drought and non-drought conditions, and <2 km from power lines during non-drought conditions, with the lowest likelihood of use near wind energy infrastructure. Whooping cranes differed in their selection of wetland and cropland land cover types depending on drought or non-drought conditions. We identified scenarios for wind energy expansion across the migration corridor and in select states, which are robust to uncertain drought conditions, where future loss of highly selected stopover habitats could be minimized under a common strategy. Our approach was to estimate functional habitat loss while integrating current disturbances, potential future disturbances, and uncertainty in drought conditions. Therefore, dynamic models describing potential costs associated with risk-averse behaviors resulting from future developments can inform proactive conservation before population impacts occur.

Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dak↗

USGS2008

Evolution of Devonian carbonate-shelf margin, Nevada

The north-trending, 550-km-long Nevada segment of the Devonian carbonate-shelf margin, which fringed western North America, evidences the complex interaction of paleotectonics, eustasy, biotic changes, and bolide impact-related influences. Margin reconstruction is complicated by mid-Paleozoic to Paleogene compressional tectonics and younger extensional and strike-slip faulting. Reports published during the past three decades identify 12 important events that influenced development of shelf-margin settings; in chronological order, these are: (1) Early Devonian inheritance of Silurian stable shelf inargin, (2) formation of Early to early Middle 'Devonian shelf-margin basins, (3) propradation of later Middle Devonian shelf margin, (4) late Middle Devonian Taghanic ondap and continuing long-term Frasnian transgression, (5) initiation of latest Middle Devonian to early Frasnian proto-Antler orogenic forebulge, (6) mid-Frasnian Alamo Impact, (7) accelerated development of proto-Antler forebulge and backbulge Pilot basin, (8) global late Frasnian sentichatovae sea-level rise, (9) end-Frasnian sea-level fluctuations and ensuing mass extinction, (10) long-term Famennian regression and continept-wide erosion, (11) late Famennian emergence: of Ahtler orogenic highlands, and (12) end-Devonian eustatic sea-level fall. Although of considerable value for understanding facies relationships and geometries, existing standard carbonate platform-margin models developed for passive settings else-where do not adequately describe the diverse depositional and, structural settings along the Nevada Devonian platform margin. Recent structural and geochemical studies suggest that the Early to Middle Devonian-shelf-margin basins may have been fault-bound and controlled by inherited Precambrian structure. Subsequently, the migrating latest Middle to Late Devonian Antler orogenic forebulge exerted a dominant control on shelf-margin position, morphology, and sedimentation.

Nevada↗

USGS2025

Topographic, climatic, and age controls on the reworking of volcanic debris avalanche deposits

Volcanic debris avalanches have deposited as much as 1000 km 3 of largely unconsolidated material on landscapes and remodeled existing drainage networks. The landscape disturbances created by these events pose severe, cascading downstream sedimentation hazards that can require long-term societal management, as demonstrated by decades of observations and ongoing interventions after the deposition of the 1980 debris avalanche of Mount St. Helens (United States). There, post-emplacement sediment yields caused by deposit erosion remain several times above estimated background yield and lakes impounded by the deposit still pose threats of downstream flooding. Despite the length and quality of measurements of the geomorphic evolution and consequent sediment release at Mount St. Helens, the long-term trajectory of drainage network evolution across, and the associated sediment release from, large volcanic debris avalanches remains uncertain. Observations and modeling at Mount St. Helens, however, indicate channel instability can persist many decades and may persist for centuries to millennia. We examined potential influences on the erosion and preservation of volcanic debris avalanche deposits (VDADs) by mapping valley networks developed on 89 VDADs selected from volcanic arcs across the world and spanning a variety of topographic settings and climate regimes. Using the best available topographic data (1 m lidar to 30 m radar-derived data depending on location) and aerial imagery, we estimated the areas of deposits that have been reworked relative to initial deposit footprints as a proxy for post-emplacement erosion. We found that a primary influence on reworking is the topographic confinement of the VDAD: confined, valley-filling deposits are systematically more reworked than unconfined deposits. There is no apparent relationship between deposit age and reworking for valley-filling deposits, indicating that drainage networks on deposits in confined topographic settings like at Mount St. Helens reform rapidly after emplacement. In contrast, our data indicate that the reworking of unconfined deposits has a monotonic positive relationship with age. This observation agrees with a conceptual model of channel formation at Mount Taranaki (New Zealand), which posits that an unconfined VDAD created a topographic high that initially (e.g., 2–8 ky for the Pungarehu formation at Taranaki) diverted erosion to the deposit margins. We found only a weak to moderate relationship between reworking and modern precipitation regimes, which may reflect differences between modern and paleo-precipitation conditions at many of our study sites. We also found no correlation between the size (surface area or volume) of deposits and the degree of reworking. The work presented here implies that downstream cascading sediment hazards from landscape-resetting processes like VDADs (such as thick, extensive pyroclastic flow deposits) depend on the relief and organization of the surrounding landscape.

Washington↗

USGS2022

Quantifying large-scale surface change using SAR amplitude images: Crater morphology changes during the 2019-2020 Shishaldin Volcano eruption

Morphological processes often induce meter-scale elevation changes. When a volcano erupts, tracking such processes provides insights into the style and evolution of eruptive activity and related hazards. Compared to optical remote-sensing products, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observes surface change during inclement weather and at night. Differential SAR interferometry estimates phase change between SAR acquisitions and is commonly applied to quantify deformation. However, large deformation or other coherence loss can limit its use. We develop a new approach applicable when repeated digital elevation models (DEMs) cannot be otherwise retrieved. Assuming an isotropic radar cross-section, we estimate meter-scale vertical morphological change directly from SAR amplitude images via an optimization method that utilizes a high-quality DEM. We verify our implementation through simulation of a collapse feature that we modulate onto topography. We simulate radar effects and recover the simulated collapse. To validate our method, we estimate elevation changes from TerraSAR-X stripmap images for the 2011–2012 eruption of Mount Cleveland. Our results reproduce those from two previous studies; one that used the same dataset, and another based on thermal satellite data. By applying this method to the 2019–2020 eruption of Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska, we generate elevation change time series from dozens of co-registered TerraSAR-X high-resolution spotlight images. Our results quantify previously unresolved cone growth in November 2019, collapses associated with explosions in December–January, and further changes in crater elevations into spring 2020. This method can be used to track meter-scale morphology changes for ongoing eruptions with low latency as SAR imagery becomes available.

Alaska↗

USGS2007

Using SHRIMP zircon dating to unravel tectonothermal events in arc environments. The early Palaeozoic arc of NW Iberia revisited

Dating of zircon cores and rims from granulites developed in a shear zone provides insights into the complex relationship between magmatism and metamorphism in the deep roots of arc environments. The granulites belong to the uppermost allochthonous terrane of the NW Iberian Massif, which forms part of a Cambro-Ordovician magmatic arc developed in the peri-Gondwanan realm. The obtained zircon ages confirm that voluminous calc-alkaline magmatism peaked around 500Ma and was shortly followed by granulite facies metamorphism accompanied by deformation at c. 480Ma, giving a time framework for crustal heating, regional metamorphism, deformation and partial melting, the main processes that control the tectonothermal evolution of arc systems. Traces of this arc can be discontinuously followed in different massifs throughout the European Variscan Belt, and we propose that the uppermost allochthonous units of the NW Iberian Massif, together with the related terranes in Europe, constitute an independent and coherent terrane that drifted away from northern Gondwana prior to the Variscan collisional orogenesis.

Terra Nova↗

USGS2009

Channel, floodplain, and wetland responses to floods and overbank sedimentation, 1846-2006, Halfway Creek Marsh, Upper Mississippi Valley, Wisconsin

Conversion of upland forest and prairie vegetation to agricultural land uses, following Euro-American settlement in the Upper Mississippi River System, led to accelerated runoff and soil erosion that subsequently transformed channels, floodplains, and wetlands on bottomlands. Halfway Creek Marsh, at the junction of Halfway Creek and the Mississippi River on Wisconsin's western border, is representative of such historical transformation. This marsh became the focus of a 2005-2006 investigation by scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Wisconsin- Madison, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, who used an understanding of the historical transformation to help managers identify possible restoration alternatives for Halfway Creek Marsh. Field-scale topographic surveys and sediment cores provided data for reconstructing patterns and rates of historical overbank sedimentation in the marsh. Information culled from historical maps, aerial photographs, General Land Offi ce Survey notes, and other historical documents helped establish the timing of anthropogenic disturbances and document changes in channel patterns. Major human disturbances, in addition to agricultural land uses, included railroad and road building, construction of artifi cial levees, drainage alterations, and repeated dam failures associated with large floods. A volume of approximately 1,400,000 m 3 , involving up to 2 m of sandy historical overbank deposition, is stored through the upper and lower marshes and along the adjacent margins of Halfway Creek and its principal tributary, Sand Lake Coulee. The estimated overbank sedimentation rate for the entire marsh is ??3,000 m 3 yr- 1 for the recent period 1994-2006. In spite of reduced surface runoff and soil erosion in recent years, this recent sedimentation rate still exceeds by ??4 times the early settlement (1846-1885) rate of 700 m 3 yr- 1 , when anthropogenic acceleration of upland surface runoff and soil erosion was beginning. The highest rate of historical bottomland sedimentation occurred from 1919 to 1936, when the estimated overbank sedimentation rate was 20,400 m 3 yr- 1 . This rate exceeded by nearly 30 times the 1846-1886 rate. Artifi cial levees were constructed along the upper reach of Halfway Creek in the marsh during the early twentieth century to restrict fl ooding on the adjacent bottomlands. Anomalously high overbank sedimentation rates subsequently occurred on the fl oodplain between the levees, which also facilitated more effi cient transport of sediment into the lower marsh bottomland. Although overbank sedimentation rates dropped after 1936, corresponding to the widespread adoption of soil-conservation and agricultural best-management practices, the continuation of anomalously high overbank sedimentation between the levees led to increased bank heights and development of a relatively deep channel. The deep cross-section morphology is commonly mistaken as evidence of channel incision; however, this morphology actually resulted from excessive overbank sedimentation. The historical metamorphosis of the Halfway Creek channel and riparian wetlands underscores the importance of understanding the long-term history of channel and fl oodplain evolution when restoration of channels and riparian wetlands are under consideration. Sedimentation patterns and channel morphology for Halfway Creek Marsh probably are representative of other anthropogenically altered riparian wetlands in the Upper Mississippi River System and similar landscapes elsewhere.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗

USGS2003

Preliminary publications book 2 from project on mineral resources, metallogenesis, and tectonics of northeast Asia

This is the Web version of a CD-ROM publication. This report consists of summary major compilations and syntheses accomplished in the six-year project through April 2003 for the study on the Mineral Resources, Metallogenesis, and Tectonics of Northeast Asia (Eastern and Southern Siberia, Mongolia, Northeastern China, South Korea, and Japan). The major scientific goals and benefits of the project are to: (1) provide a comprehensive international data base on the mineral resources of the region that is the first, extensive knowledge available in English; (2) provide major new interpretations of the origin and crustal evolution of mineralizing systems and their host rocks, thereby enabling enhanced, broad-scale tectonic reconstructions and interpretations; and (3) promote trade and scientific and technical exchanges between the North America and Northeast Asia. Data from the project are providing sound scientific data and interpretations for commercial firms, governmental agencies, universities, and individuals that are developing new ventures and studies in the project area, and for land-use planning studies that deal with both mineral potential issues. Northeast Asia has vast potential for known and undiscovered mineral deposits; however, little information existed in English in the West until publication of products from this project. Consequently, data and interpretations from the project are providing basic knowledge for major scientific, commercial, national, and international endeavors by other interested individuals and groups.

Siberia↗

USGS2020

A global shape model for Saturn's moon Enceladus from a dense photogrammetric control network

A planetary bodys global shape provides both insight into its geologic evolution, and a key element of any Planetary Spatial Data Infrastructure (PSDI). NASAs Cassini mission to Saturn acquired more than 600 moderate- to high-resolution images (< 500 m/pixel) of the small, geologically active moon Enceladus. The moons internal global ocean and intriguing geology mark it as a candidate for future exploration and motivates the development of a PSDI. Recently, Bland et al. (2018) provided two foundational elements of this PSDI: geodetic control and orthoimages. To provide the third foundational data set we generate a new shape model for Enceladus from Cassini images and a dense photogrammetric control network (nearly 1 million tie points) using the United States Geological Surveys Integrated Software for Imagers and Spectrometers (ISIS) and the Ames Stereo Pipeline (ASP). The new shape model is near-global in extent and gridded to 2.2 km/pixel, ~50 times better resolution than previous global models. Our calculated triaxial shape, rotation rate, and pole orientation for Enceladus is consistent with current IAU values to within the error; however, we determined a new prime meridian offset (Wo) of 7.063o. We calculate Enceladus long-wavelength topography by subtracting the best-fit triaxial ellipsoid from our shape model. The result is comparable to previous global models but can resolve topographic features as small as 5-7 km across in certain areas. To evaluate the spatially varying quality of the model we calculate the point density (variable from 5 to more than 50 per pixel), normalized median absolute deviation of the points within each pixel (typically less than 100 m), and the minimum expected vertical precision of each point (ranging from 2 km to 29 m).

Conference Paper↗

USGS2010

Organic-matter production and preservation and evolution of anoxia in the Holocene Black Sea

Dating of sediments collected in gravity cores during Leg 1 of the 1988 R/V Knorr expedition to the Black Sea suggests that the onset of water-column anoxia at ∼7.5 ka was virtually synchronous across the basin over a depth range of ∼200–2250 m. A finely laminated, organic carbon (OC) rich sapropel (unit II) was produced as a result of this anoxia. The trigger for increased OC production and development of anoxia was the spillover of saline waters through the Bosporus that probably began at ∼9.0 ka and peaked between ∼7.0 and 5.5 ka. This spillover enhanced vertical mixing and nutrient cycling and caused a short-term (2–3 kyr) burst in surface-water productivity during the early part of unit II deposition. Continued incursion of saline waters enhanced vertical stability and inhibited mixing of nutrients into surface waters, thus limiting primary production and decreasing the OC flux to sediments beginning ∼5.5 ka. Concentration, accumulation rate, and degree of preservation of organic matter all decreased in the upper part of unit II as a result of decreasing productivity, but anoxia persisted throughout most of the water column. The end of unit II sapropel deposition was synchronous across the Black Sea as the result of the first blooms of the coccolith Emiliania huxleyi , which presumably marked an increase in surface-water salinity above 11 and the beginning of unit I deposition. The high coccolith-carbonate fluxes that occurred during deposition of unit I diluted the OC concentration in the sediments, but OC accumulation rates are about the same as those in upper part of unit II.

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology↗

USGS2015

Determining habitat quality for species that demonstrate dynamic habitat selection

Determining habitat quality for wildlife populations requires relating a species' habitat to its survival and reproduction. Within a season, species occurrence and density can be disconnected from measures of habitat quality when resources are highly seasonal, unpredictable over time, and patchy. Here we establish an explicit link among dynamic selection of changing resources, spatio-temporal species distributions, and fitness for predictive abundance and occurrence models that are used for short-term water management and long-term restoration planning. We used the wading bird distribution and evaluation models (WADEM) that estimate (1) daily changes in selection across resource gradients, (2) landscape abundance of flocks and individuals, (3) conspecific foraging aggregation, and (4) resource unit occurrence (at fixed 400 m cells) to quantify habitat quality and its consequences on reproduction for wetland indicator species. We linked maximum annual numbers of nests detected across the study area and nesting success of Great Egrets (Ardea alba), White Ibises (Eudocimus albus), and Wood Storks (Mycteria americana) over a 20-year period to estimated daily dynamics of food resources produced by WADEM over a 7490 km2 area. For all species, increases in predicted species abundance in March and high abundance in April were strongly linked to breeding responses. Great Egret nesting effort and success were higher when birds also showed greater conspecific foraging aggregation. Synthesis and applications: This study provides the first empirical evidence that dynamic habitat selection processes and distributions of wading birds over environmental gradients are linked with reproductive measures over periods of decades. Further, predictor variables at a variety of temporal (daily-multiannual) resolutions and spatial (400 m to regional) scales effectively explained variation in ecological processes that change habitat quality. The process used here allows managers to develop short- and long-term conservation strategies that (1) consider flexible behavioral patterns and (2) are robust to environmental variation over time.

Florida↗

USGS2022

A call to action: Standardizing white-tailed deer harvest data in the Midwestern United States and implications for quantitative analysis and disease management

Recreational hunting has been the dominant game management and conservation mechanism in the United States for the past century. However, there are numerous modern-day issues that reduce the viability and efficacy of hunting-based management, such as fewer hunters, overabundant wildlife populations, limited access, and emerging infectious diseases in wildlife. Quantifying the drivers of recreational harvest by hunters could inform potential management actions to address these issues, but this is seldom comprehensively accomplished because data collection practices limit some analytical applications (e.g., differing spatial scales of harvest regulations and harvest data). Additionally, managing large-scale issues, such as infectious diseases, requires collaborations across management agencies, which is challenging or impossible if data are not standardized. Here we discuss modern issues with the prevailing wildlife management framework in the United States from an analytical point of view with a case study of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) in the Midwest. We have four aims: (1) describe the interrelated processes that comprise hunting and suggest improvements to current data collections systems, (2) summarize data collection systems employed by state wildlife management agencies in the Midwestern United States and discuss potential for large-scale data standardization, (3) assess how aims 1 and 2 influence managing infectious diseases in hunted wildlife, and (4) suggest actionable steps to help guide data collection standards and management practices. To achieve these goals, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources disseminated a questionnaire to state wildlife agencies (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin), and we report and compare their harvest management structures, data collection practices, and responses to chronic wasting disease. We hope our “call to action” encourages re-evaluation, coordination, and improvement of harvest and management data collection practices with the goal of improving the analytical potential of these data. A deeper understanding of the strengths and deficiencies of our current management systems in relation to harvest and management data collection methods could benefit the future development of comprehensive and collaborative management and research initiatives (e.g., adaptive management) for wildlife and their diseases.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minne↗

USGS1996

The Eocene Big Timber stock, south-central Montana: Development of extensive compositional variation in an arc-related intrusion by side-wall crystallization and cumulate glomerocryst remixing

The Eocene Big Timber stock in the Crazy Mountains of south-central Montana is an elliptical, 8 by 13 km, compositionally and texturally diverse composite intrusion with a well-developed radial dike swarm. A sharp intrusive contact separates its two phases: the core of the intrusion is fine-grained quartz monzodiorite, and the volumetrically dominant remainder is composed of medium-grained diorite and gabbro. Differentiation-related major oxide variation within the stock is extensive and spatially nonsystematic. However, abundances of most trace elements were not strongly influenced by differentiation; late zircon and apatite fractionation caused moderate heavy and slight light rare earth element abundance depletions, respectively. Mineral compositions and assemblages indicate crystallization between ≈950 and 700 °C at a pressure of ≈0.8 kbar (3 km). Mixing models indicate that fractionation of varying amounts of plagioclase, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, magnesio-hastingsite, hornblende, biotite, titanite, apatite, and magnetite (the stock's principal constituents, with quartz and potassium feldspar) and remixing of these minerals and residual liquids controlled compositional evolution in the reservoir. Crystals apparently nucleated at the reservoir wall while residual silicate liquid was displaced inward and remixed. Some crystals were plucked from the solidification front, as indicated by glomerocrysts present throughout the stock, and also remixed with residual liquid. Solidification of the reservoir represented by the stock involved heat loss to enclosing wall rock, side-wall crystallization, and subsequent, variably effective, crystal-liquid remixing. This process is an important variant of conventionally invoked models pertaining to solidification of intrusions and explains extensive, relatively nonsystematic compositional variation. The genesis of compositional evolution in other intrusions characterized by extensive, spatially nonsystematic variation may result from the important process documented herein. Compositional and geologic relationships are consistent with magma genesis related to subduction and magmatic-arc processes inboard from the western edge of the early Cenozoic North American plate. Arc magmatism in south-central Montana during Eocene time is consistent with models pertaining to early Cenozoic southward sweep and westward retreat of magmatism. Magmatism represented by the Big Timber stock provides significant new support for steepening subduction, westward retreat of the subduction hinge line, and development of an asthenospheric mantle wedge that fueled renewed magmatism beneath the western edge of the North American continent following early Cenozoic shallow subduction.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS2007

Potential for shoreline changes due to sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic region

Sea-level rise over the next century is expected to contribute significantly to physical changes along open-ocean shorelines. Predicting the form and magnitude of coastal changes is important for understanding the impacts to humans and the environment. Presently, the ability to predict coastal changes is limited by the scientific understanding of the many variables and processes involved in coastal change, and the lack of consensus regarding the validity of existing conceptual, analytical, or numerical models. In order to assess potential future coastal changes in the mid-Atlantic U.S. for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), a workshop was convened by the U.S. Geological Survey. Assessments of future coastal change were made by a committee of coastal scientists with extensive professional experience in the mid-Atlantic region. Thirteen scientists convened for a two-day meeting to exchange information and develop a consensus opinion on potential future coastal changes for the mid-Atlantic coast in response to sea-level rise. Using criteria defined in past work, the mid-Atlantic coast was divided into four geomorphic compartments: spits, headlands, wave-dominated barriers, and mixed-energy barriers. A range of potential coastal responses was identified for each compartment based on four sea-level rise scenarios. The four scenarios were based on the assumptions that: a) the long-term sea-level rise rate observed over the 20th century would persist over the 21st century, b) the 20th century rate would increase by 2 mm/yr, c) the 20th century rate would increase by 7 mm/yr, or d) sea-level would rise by 2 m over the next few hundred years. Potential responses to these sea-level rise scenarios depend on the landforms that occur within a region and include increased likelihood for erosion and shoreline retreat for all coastal types, increased likelihood for erosion, overwash and inlet breaching for barrier islands, as well as the possibility of a threshold state (e.g., dramatic change in barrier evolution, such as segmentation or disintegration) for some barrier island systems. The likelihood of the potential coastal responses is expressed using standard terminology employed in climate change assessments (e.g., as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and CCSP). This assessment was based on the coastal geomorphology in its present condition and does not consider any coastal protection that might be undertaken in the future. The committee recognized that a variety of erosion mitigation measures have been implemented along developed portions of the coast and these are very likely to be applied in the future. It was also acknowledged that economics, political will, and other factors can drive decisions to implement these measures, and that such decisions cannot be predicted with confidence. The results of this assessment are depicted graphically on maps of the study area.

Mid-Atlantic Coast↗

USGS2014

Modeling erosion of ice-rich permafrost bluffs along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast

The Arctic climate is changing, inducing accelerating retreat of ice-rich permafrost coastal bluﬀs. Along Alaska’s Beaufort Sea coast, erosion rates have increased roughly threefold from 6.8 to 19 m yr −1 since 1955 while the sea ice-free season has increased roughly twofold from 45 to 100 days since 1979. We develop a numerical model of bluﬀ retreat to assess the relative roles of the length of sea ice-free season, sea level, water temperature, nearshore waveﬁeld, and permafrost temperature in controlling erosion rates in this setting. The model captures the processes of erosion observed in short-term monitoring experiments along the Beaufort Sea coast, including evolution of melt notches, topple of ice wedge-bounded blocks, and degradation of these blocks. Model results agree with time-lapse imagery of bluﬀ evolution and time series of ocean-based instrumentation. Erosion is highly episodic with 40% of erosion is accomplished during less than 5% of the sea ice-free season. Among the formulations of the submarine erosion rate we assessed, we advocate those that employ both water temperature and nearshore waveﬁeld. As high water levels are a prerequisite for erosion, any future changes that increase the frequency with which water levels exceed the base of the bluﬀs will increase rates of coastal erosion. The certain increases in sea level and potential changes in storminess will both contribute to this eﬀect. As water temperature also inﬂuences erosion rates, any further expansion of the sea ice-free season into the midsummer period of greatest insolation is likely to result in an additional increase in coastal retreat rates.

Alaska↗

USGS2001

Monitoring of biological diversity in space and time

Monitoring programmes are being used increasingly to assess spatial and temporal trends of biological diversity, with an emphasis on evaluating the efficiency of management policies. Recent reviews of the existing programmes, with a focus on their design in particular, have highlighted the main weaknesses: the lack of well-articulated objectives and the neglect of different sources of error in the estimation of biological diversity. We review recent developments in methods and designs that aim to integrate sources of error to provide unbiased estimates of change in biological diversity and to suggest the potential causes.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2026

Ductile and brittle Rio Grande Rift deformation in Oligocene granite records a two-stage rift history in southern Colorado

The timing and nature of early deformation in the Rio Grande Rift remains poorly constrained. We present evidence for the earliest structural signature of rift extension in the Sangre de Cristo Range, southern Colorado, based on new geologic mapping, structural analysis, rock magnetic data, and thermochronology. These analyses focus on the ~30.0 Ma granite of Chokecherry Canyon, which hosts discrete low-angle mylonitic shear zones and a distributed, gently SW-dipping protomylonitic fabric. Incremental stretching axes, stretching lineations, and Kmax magnetic lineations plunge gently WSW. Quartz microstructures and crystallographic orientations indicate dominantly coaxial strain in the protomylonite and general shear in the discrete shear zones. Quartz c-axis opening-angle thermometry suggests deformation at ~420–540°C. Thermal modeling of ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar K-feldspar data indicates rapid post magmatic cooling below the brittle–plastic transition, supporting shear-zone formation immediately after emplacement. Slow cooling from ~20–13 Ma was followed by renewed rapid cooling at ~13 Ma, interpreted as the onset of extensional exhumation along the Sangre de Cristo Fault System. These results show that extension in the northern Rio Grande Rift was active by ~30 Ma, earlier than previously recognized. We propose a two-stage model for northern Rio Grande Rift evolution: Stage I (30–23 Ma) records ENE–WSW extension localized in low-angle mylonitic shear zones associated with mid-crustal intrusions; Stage II (≤18 Ma) reflects brittle high-angle normal faulting, focused exhumation, and rift narrowing. Stage I magmatism and deformation along the western range front likely established crustal weaknesses that guided later fault development.

Colorado↗