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At least 523 records · Page 29Linked to original sources

Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the GDSS have demonstrated the benefits of utilizing science for policy decisions. Investment in science reduces decision-making uncertainty and reducing that uncertainty has economic value.

Boletin Geologico y Minero↗

Geomorphic effects of large debris flows and flash floods, northern Venezuela, 1999

A rare, high-magnitude storm in northern Venezuela in December 1999 triggered debris flows and flash floods, and caused one of the worst natural disasters in the recorded history of the Americas. Some 15,000 people were killed. The debris flows and floods inundated coastal communities on alluvial fans at the mouths of a coastal mountain drainage network and destroyed property estimated at more than $2 billion. Landslides were abundant and widespread on steep slopes within areas underlain by schist and gneiss from near the coast to slightly over the crest of the mountain range. Some hillsides were entirely denuded by single or coalescing failures, which formed massive debris flows in river channels flowing out onto densely populated alluvial fans at the coast. The massive amount of sediment derived from 24 watersheds along 50 km of the coast during the storm and deposited on alluvial fans and beaches has been estimated at 15 to 20 million m3. Sediment yield for the 1999 storm from the approximately 200 km2 drainage area of watersheds upstream of the alluvial fans was as much as 100,000 m3/km2. Rapid economic development in this dynamic geomorphic environment close to the capital city of Caracas, in combination with a severe rain storm, resulted in the death of approximately 5% of the population (300,000 total prior to the storm) in the northern Venezuelan state of Vargas. ?? 2006 Gebru??der Borntraeger.

Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie, Supplementband↗

USGS: Science at the intersection of land and ocean

The US Geological Survey (USGS) conducts an ongoing national assessment of coastal change hazards in order to help protect lives and support management of coastal infrastructure and resources. The research group rapidly gathers to investigate coastal changes along the Gulf Coast's sandy beaches after each hurricane to examine the magnitude and variability of impacts. This investigation helps to protect the environment and the American people by preparing maps that show the extreme coastal change. It also posts online video and still photography and LIDAR (light detection and ranging) survey data after each storm, to provide a clear picture of the devastated area. The USGS provides data to understand changing coastal vulnerabilities so that informed decisions can be made to protect disaster affected areas and its resources. Earth scientists in the USGS are learning more about coastal dynamics, determining changes, and improving the ability to forecast how coastal environments will respond to the next storm.

Sea Technology↗

El Chichón's "surprise" eruption in 1982: lessons for reducing volcano risk

During one week (28 March–4 April 1982), three powerful explosive eruptions (VEI 5) of El Chichón Volcano caused the worst volcanic disaster in Mexico's recorded history. Pyroclastic flows and surges obliterated nine villages, killing about 2,000 people, and ashfalls downwind posed socio–economic hardships for many thousands of inhabitants of the States of Chiapas and Tabasco. The unexpected and vigorous eruption of 28 caused a hasty, confused evacuation of most villagers in the area. Activity was greatly diminished the next five days, and then the most powerful and lethal eruptions occurred 3–4 April—tragically, after many evacuees were allowed by authorities to return home. Unfortunately, the eruptions came as an almost total surprise for scientists and government authorities, effectively precluding opportunities to implement timely mitigative countermeasures. During the months before eruption onset, fumarolic activity increased and inhabitants living close to the volcano felt occasional earthquakes, prompting the Chiapas government to request help from the Federal government. Both the Chiapas and Federal governmental actions were slow, and the requested assistance came after the volcano erupted. Perhaps the most important lesson learned from the disastrous outcome at El Chichón is that its decreased activity (29 March–2 April) should not have been assumed by the senior scientist on site—and the military authorities acting on his advice—to signal the end of eruption. While the 1982 eruptions caused a national tragedy, they also fostered multidisciplinary studies of eruptive phenomena, not only at El Chichón but also other explosive volcanoes in the world.

El Chicon volcano↗

Publication: Evansville hazard maps

The Evansville (Indiana) Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project was completed in February 2012. It was a collaborative effort among the U.S. Geological Survey and regional partners Purdue University; the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis; the state geologic surveys of Kentucky, Illinois, and Indiana; the Southwest Indiana Disaster Resistant Community Corporation; and the Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium state geologists.

Indiana↗

The CEOS-Land Surface Imaging Constellation Portal for GEOSS: A resource for land surface imaging system information and data access

The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites is an international group that coordinates civil space-borne observations of the Earth, and provides the space component of the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS). The CEOS Virtual Constellations concept was implemented in an effort to engage and coordinate disparate Earth observing programs of CEOS member agencies and ultimately facilitate their contribution in supplying the space-based observations required to satisfy the requirements of the GEOSS. The CEOS initially established Study Teams for four prototype constellations that included precipitation, land surface imaging, ocean surface topography, and atmospheric composition. The basic mission of the Land Surface Imaging (LSI) Constellation [1] is to promote the efficient, effective, and comprehensive collection, distribution, and application of space-acquired image data of the global land surface, especially to meet societal needs of the global population, such as those addressed by the nine Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs) of agriculture, biodiversity, climate, disasters, ecosystems, energy, health, water, and weather. The LSI Constellation Portal is the result of an effort to address important goals within the LSI Constellation mission and provide resources to assist in planning for future space missions that might further contribute to meeting those goals.

earthzine, an IEEE online publication↗

Rapid exposure and loss estimates for the May 12, 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake provided by the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system

One half-hour after the May 12th Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system distributed an automatically generated alert stating that 1.2 million people were exposed to severe-to-extreme shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII or greater). It was immediately clear that a large-scale disaster had occurred. These alerts were widely distributed and referenced by the major media outlets and used by governments, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses. The PAGER alerts and Web pages included predictive ShakeMaps showing estimates of ground shaking, maps of population density, and a list of estimated intensities at impacted cities. Manual, revised alerts were issued in the following hours that included the dimensions of the fault rupture. Within a half-day, PAGER’s estimates of the population exposed to strong shaking levels stabilized at 5.2 million people. A coordinated research effort is underway to extend PAGER’s capability to include estimates of the number of casualties. We are pursuing loss models that will allow PAGER the flexibility to use detailed inventory and engineering results in regions where these data are available while also calculating loss estimates in regions where little is known about the type and strength of the built infrastructure. Prototype PAGER fatality estimates are currently implemented and can be manually triggered. In the hours following the Wenchuan earthquake, these models predicted fatalities in the tens of thousands.

Wenchua↗

Development of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response)

The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System plays a primary alerting role for global earthquake disasters as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) response protocol. We provide an overview of the PAGER system, both of its current capabilities and our ongoing research and development. PAGER monitors the USGS’s near real-time U.S. and global earthquake origins and automatically identifies events that are of societal importance, well in advance of ground-truth or news accounts. Current PAGER notifications and Web pages estimate the population exposed to each seismic intensity level. In addition to being a useful indicator of potential impact, PAGER’s intensity/exposure display provides a new standard in the dissemination of rapid earthquake information. We are currently developing and testing a more comprehensive alert system that will include casualty estimates. This is motivated by the idea that an estimated range of possible number of deaths will aid in decisions regarding humanitarian response. Underlying the PAGER exposure and loss models are global earthquake ShakeMap shaking estimates, constrained as quickly as possible by finite-fault modeling and observed ground motions and intensities, when available. Loss modeling is being developed comprehensively with a suite of candidate models that range from fully empirical to largely analytical approaches. Which of these models is most appropriate for use in a particular earthquake depends on how much is known about local building stocks and their vulnerabilities. A first-order country-specific global building inventory has been developed, as have corresponding vulnerability functions. For calibrating PAGER loss models, we have systematically generated an Atlas of 5,000 ShakeMaps for significant global earthquakes during the last 36 years. For many of these, auxiliary earthquake source and shaking intensity data are also available. Refinements to the loss models are ongoing. Fundamental to such an alert system, we are also developing computational and communications infrastructure for rapid and robust operations and worldwide notifications. PAGER’s methodologies and datasets are being developed in an open environment to support other loss estimation efforts and provide avenues for outside collaboration and critique.

Conference Paper↗

Earthquake damage to transportation systems

Earthquakes represent one of the most destructive natural hazards known to man. A large magnitude earthquake near a populated area can affect residents over thousands of square kilometers and cause billions of dollars in property damage. Such an event can kill or injure thousands of residents and disrupt the socioeconomic environment for months, sometimes years. A serious result of a large-magnitude earthquake is the disruption of transportation systems, which limits post-disaster emergency response. Movement of emergency vehicles, such as police cars, fire trucks and ambulances, is often severely restricted. Damage to transportation systems is categorized below by cause including: ground failure, faulting, vibration damage, and tsunamis.

Report↗

Landsat imagery: a unique resource

Landsat satellites provide high-quality, multi-spectral imagery of the surface of the Earth. These moderate-resolution, remotely sensed images are not just pictures, but contain many layers of data collected at different points along the visible and invisible light spectrum. These data can be manipulated to reveal what the Earth’s surface looks like, including what types of vegetation are present or how a natural disaster has impacted an area (Fig. 1).

Report↗

The importance of biological surveys in managing public lands in the western United States

Despite previous studies, incomplete knowledge of the mammalian fauna of many national parks hinders our ability to understand the consequences of either management actions of natural disasters to such preserves. Faunal losses have occurred and can be expected to continue (Newmark 1986a, 1986b). our studies in and near Dinosaur National Monument, one of the parks studied by Newmark (1986a, 1986b), have added 11 species to the known fauna. Some species have increased with human impact; other species have either disappeared or are declining. Finally, many species, which are uncommon and poorly known, may have rather specific habitat needs.

Report↗

Recent damaging earthquakes in Japan, 2003-2008

During the last six years, from 2003-2008, Japan has been struck by three significant and damaging earthquakes: The most recent M6.6 Niigata Chuetsu Oki earthquake of July 16, 2007 off the coast of Kashiwazaki City, Japan; The M6.6 Niigata Chuetsu earthquake of October 23, 2004, located in Niigata Prefecture in the central Uonuma Hills; and the M8.0 Tokachi Oki Earthquake of September 26, 2003 effecting southeastern Hokkaido Prefecture. These earthquakes stand out among many in a very active period of seismicity in Japan. Within the upper 100 km of the crust during this period, Japan experienced 472 earthquakes of magnitude 6, or greater. Both Niigata events affected the south-central region of Tohoku Japan, and the Tokachi-Oki earthquake affected a broad region of the continental shelf and slope southeast of the Island of Hokkaido. This report is synthesized from the work of scores of Japanese and US researchers who led and participated in post-earthquake reconnaissance of these earthquakes: their noteworthy and valuable contributions are listed in an extended acknowledgements section at the end of the paper. During the Niigata Chuetsu Oki event of 2007, damage to the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant, structures, infrastructure, and ground were primarily the product of two factors: (1) high intensity motions from this moderate-sized shallow event, and (2) soft, poor performing, or liquefiable soils in the coastal region of southwestern Niigata Prefecture. Structural and geotechnical damage along the slopes of dunes was ubiquitous in the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa region. The 2004 Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake was the most significant to affect Japan since the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Forty people were killed, almost 3,000 were injured, and many hundreds of landslides destroyed entire upland villages. Landslides were of all types; some dammed streams, temporarily creating lakes threatening to overtop their new embankments and cause flash floods and mudslides. The numerous landslides resulted, in part, from heavy rain associated with Typhoon Tokage. The earthquake forced more than 100,000 people into temporary shelters, and as many as 10,000 displaced from their upland homes for several years. Total damages was estimated by Japanese authorities at US$40 billion, making this the second most costly disaster in history, after the 1995 Kobe earth-quake. The 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake was the third event of magnitude 8.0+ to strike the southeastern portion of Hokkaido in the last 50 years. The event produced tsunami run-ups along the shoreline of southern Hokkaido that reached maximum heights of 4 meters. Accelerations recorded by seismic networks of Hokkaido indicated a high intensity motion region from Hiroo area to Kushiro City, with a PGA values in the range of 0.35 to 0.6g. Despite high acceleration levels, the observed ground failure, liquefaction, structural, port, and lifeline damages were remarkably light.

Conference Paper↗

Aftershock communication during the Canterbury Earthquakes, New Zealand: Implications for response and recovery in the built environment

On 4 September 2010, a Mw7.1 earthquake occurred in Canterbury, New Zealand. Following the initial earthquake, an aftershock sequence was initiated, with the most significant aftershock being a Mw6.3 earthquake occurring on 22 February 2011. This aftershock caused severe damage to the city of Christchurch and building failures that killed 185 people. During the aftershock sequence it became evident that effective communication of aftershock information (e.g., history and forecasts) was imperative to assist with decision making during the response and recovery phases of the disaster, as well as preparedness for future aftershock events. As a consequence, a joint JCDR-USGS research project was initiated to investigate: • How aftershock information was communicated to organisations and to the public; • How people interpreted that information; • What people did in response to receiving that information; • What information people did and did not need; and • What decision-making challenges were encountered relating to aftershocks. Research was conducted by undertaking focus group meetings and interviews with a range of information providers and users, including scientists and science advisors, emergency managers and responders, engineers, communication officers, businesses, critical infrastructure operators, elected officials, and the public. The interviews and focus group meetings were recorded and transcribed, and key themes were identified. This paper focuses on the aftershock information needs for decision-making about the built environment post-earthquake, including those involved in response (e.g., for building assessment and management), recovery/reduction (e.g., the development of new building standards), and readiness (e.g. between aftershocks). The research has found that the communication of aftershock information varies with time, is contextual, and is affected by interactions among roles, by other information, and by decision objectives. A number of general and specific insights into improving the communication of aftershock information are provided.

Canterbury↗

Tsunami geology in paleoseismology

The 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku-oki disasters dramatically demonstrated the destructiveness and deadliness of tsunamis. For the assessment of future risk posed by tsunamis it is necessary to understand past tsunami events. Recent work on tsunami deposits has provided new information on paleotsunami events, including their recurrence interval and the size of the tsunamis (e.g. [187–189]). Tsunamis are observed not only on the margin of oceans but also in lakes. The majority of tsunamis are generated by earthquakes, but other events that displace water such as landslides and volcanic eruptions can also generate tsunamis. These non-earthquake tsunamis occur less frequently than earthquake tsunamis; it is, therefore, very important to find and study geologic evidence for past eruption and submarine landslide triggered tsunami events, as their rare occurrence may lead to risks being underestimated. Geologic investigations of tsunamis have historically relied on earthquake geology. Geophysicists estimate the parameters of vertical coseismic displacement that tsunami modelers use as a tsunami's initial condition. The modelers then let the simulated tsunami run ashore. This approach suffers from the relationship between the earthquake and seafloor displacement, the pertinent parameter in tsunami generation, being equivocal. In recent years, geologic investigations of tsunamis have added sedimentology and micropaleontology, which focus on identifying and interpreting depositional and erosional features of tsunamis. For example, coastal sediment may contain deposits that provide important information on past tsunami events [190, 191]. In some cases, a tsunami is recorded by a single sand layer. Elsewhere, tsunami deposits can consist of complex layers of mud, sand, and boulders, containing abundant stratigraphic evidence for sediment reworking and redeposition. These onshore sediments are geologic evidence for tsunamis and are called ‘tsunami deposits’ (Figs. 26 and 27). Tsunami deposits can be classified into two groups: modern tsunami deposits and paleotsunami deposits. A modern tsunami deposit is a deposit whose source event is known. A paleotsunami deposit is a deposit whose age is estimated and has a source that is either inferred to be a historical event or is unknown.

Report↗

Google earth mapping of damage from the Nigata-Ken-Chuetsu M6.6 earthquake of 16 July 2007

We describe the use of Google Earth during and after a large damaging earthquake thatstruck the central Japan coast on 16 July 2007 to collect and organize damage information and guide the reconnaissance activities. This software enabled greater real-time collaboration among scientists and engineers. After the field investigation, the Google Earth map is used as a final reporting product that was directly linked to the more traditional research report document. Finally, we analyze the use of the software within the context of a post-disaster reconnaissance investigation, and link it to student use of GoogleEarth in field situations

Conference Paper↗

U.S. States and Territories National Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Historical record and sources for waves – Update

The first U.S. Tsunami Hazard Assessment (Dunbar and Weaver, 2008) was prepared at the request of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP). The NTHMP is a partnership formed between federal and state agencies to reduce the impact of tsunamis through hazard assessment, warning guidance, and mitigation. The assessment was conducted in response to a 2005 joint report by the Sub-Committee on Disaster Reduction and the U.S. Group on Earth Observations entitled Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States: A Framework for Action. The first specific action called for in the Framework was to “develop standardized and coordinated tsunami hazard and risk assessments for all coastal regions of the United States and its territories.” Since the first assessment, there have been a number of very significant tsunamis, including the 2009 Samoa, 2010 Chile, and 2011 Japan tsunamis. As a result, the NTHMP requested an update of the U.S. tsunami hazard assessment.

Report↗

Geological hazards programs and research in the U.S.A

Until recently, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and major ground failures in populated regions have been viewed as natural disasters that were unpredictable and producing effects that were unavoidable. research over the past few decades has led to an increased understanding of the effects and causes of geological hazards and to a widening recognition that measures can be taken to reduce their impacts on people and structures. Thus, today, in the U.S.A and elsewhere, formal government programs have been established to study these hazrads, not only to explain and understand the phenomena themselves, but also to provide a basis for warning and mitigation strategies that will reduce losses and suffering.

Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)↗

Earthquake alarm; operating the seismograph station at the University of California, Berkeley.

An alarm bell rings at the seismographic station and at the office of the campus police. It is 3:00 on a foggy San Francisco morning. Somewhere in the world an earthquake has occurred. The police telephone the duty seismologist at home telling him that the alarm has triggered. He makes his way into the seismograph station, bathrobe and all, to locate the earthquake and determine its magnitude. In this way, many seismology graduate students have been initiated into the responsibilities of running a seismographic station. At the University of California seismographic stations, the task of locating and determining magnitudes for both local and distant earthquakes is a continuous one. Teleseisms must be located rapidly so that events that occur in the Pacific can be identified and the Pacific Tsunami Warning System alerted. For great earthquakes anywhere, there is a responsibility to notify public agencies such as the California Office of Emergency Services, the Federal Disaster Assistance Administration, the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, the California Seismic Safety Commission, and the American Red Cross. In the case of damaging local earthquakes, it is necessary to alert also the California Department of Water Resources, California Division of Mines and Geology, U.S Army Corps of Engineers, Federal Bureau of Reclamation, and the Bay Area Rapid Transit. These days, any earthquakes that are felt in northern California cause immediate inquiries from the news media and an interested public. The series of earthquakes that jolted the Livermore area from January 24 to 26 1980, is a good case in point.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗