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At least 505 records · Page 28Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Habitat-based predictions of bridle shiner ( Notropis bifrenatus ) in the northeastern U.S.

We sought to assess bridle shiner ( Notropis bifrenatus ) habitat associations at local and regional scales across southern Maine and New Hampshire. We used local habitat data at 95 Maine sites to predict occupancy with classification and regression trees (CART). We then used ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) to model the historical (1898–2008) and current (2009–2022) ranges of the species. We used the BIOMOD platform to model the association between 35 environmental variables and bridle shiner presence during both time periods and at fine (pseudo-HUC14) and coarse (HUC12) spatial scales. We then calculated the change in predicted occupied drainages to estimate the change in the species' distribution at both scales. Within a site, bridle shiners were associated with submerged aquatic vegetation, organic substrate, and watermilfoil ( Myriophyllum spp.). SDMs revealed an association with Appalachian (Hemlock-)Northern Hardwood Forest, sand substrate, and low-elevation terrain (at both spatial scales). Ensemble fine-scale SDMs suggest a substantial loss of historical bridle shiner habitat in both Maine (36% of drainages) and New Hampshire (16%), with comparable described losses (of 21% and 14%) at a coarse scale. Our local and regional models may be used to focus surveys on areas with high predicted habitat suitability or to inform habitat restoration efforts.

Maine, New Hampshire↗
USGS2009

Environmental influences on speleothem growth in southwestern Oregon during the last 380, 000 years

The growth of carbonate formations in caves (speleothems) is sensitive to changes in environmental conditions at the surface (temperature, precipitation and vegetation) and can provide useful paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental information. We use 73 230 Th dates from speleothems collected from a cave in southwestern Oregon (USA) to constrain speleothem growth for the past 380 000 years. Most speleothem growth occurred during interglacial periods, whereas little growth occurred during glacial intervals. To evaluate potential environmental controls on speleothem growth we use two new modeling approaches: i) a one-dimensional thermal advection–diffusion model to estimate cave temperatures during the last glacial cycle, and ii) a regional climate model simulation for the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years before present) that assesses a range of potential controls on speleothem growth under peak glacial conditions. The two models are mutually consistent in indicating that permafrost formation did not influence speleothem growth during glacial periods. Instead, the regional climate model simulation combined with proxy data suggest that the influence of the Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheets on atmospheric circulation induced substantial changes in water balance in the Pacific Northwest and affected speleothem growth at our location. The overall drier conditions during glacial intervals and associated periods of frozen topsoil at times of maximum surface runoff likely induced drastic changes in cave recharge and limited speleothem growth. This mechanism could have affected speleothem growth in other mid-latitude caves without requiring the presence of permafrost.

Oregon↗
USGS2025

Mapping ecological states in the upper Colorado River basin: Implications for fire management

Spatially explicit information on ecosystem dynamics that offers a mechanistic understanding of ecological processes can benefit environmental management. Broad-scale maps based on state-and-transition models provide valuable insight into transitions among ecological states resulting from specific drivers within areas sharing similar climatic and edaphic characteristics ecological sites (ES). We aimed to quantify ecological dynamics of two ES groups in the Upper Colorado River Basin from 1986 to 2022 through annual maps of ecological states and assess potential drivers of observed state change. This region comprises important sagebrush shrublands and pinyon-juniper woodlands affected by non-native annual grass invasion, wildfires, and drought-induced tree mortality. Using field-based and remote sensing data, we modeled vegetation states using random forest models and mapped the states annually from 1986 to 2022. To demonstrate the utility of the state maps for monitoring and management, we used this time series of maps to investigate the influences of fire and drought on state occurrence. Our findings revealed a statistically significant increase in states invaded by non-native annual species (Invaded state), which replaced Grassland and Shrubland states, while Shrubland states decreased significantly, transitioning to invaded and Woodland states. Invaded states had the highest likelihood of burning, followed by Woodlands. Drought was associated with increased area of Grassland and Bare states, but with decreased area of invaded and Shrubland states. These results indicate an accelerating fire cycle is potentially leading to ongoing regional environmental degradation. Despite increasing drought conditions during the study period, the invaded states continued to increase in area, indicating additional underlying mechanisms. Our reproducible, broad-scale, ecologically-driven state mapping process enhances understanding of how drought, fire, and invasion by non-native plants can transform semiarid landscapes of the western USA.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2020

Using multiple environmental proxies and hydrodynamic modeling to investigate Late Holocene climate and coastal change within a large Gulf of Mexico estuarine system (Mobile Bay, Alabama, USA)

A high degree of uncertainty exists for understanding and predicting coastal estuarine response to changing climate, land-use, and sea-level conditions, leaving geologic records as a best-proxy for constraining potential outcomes. With the majority of the world's population focused in coastal regions, understanding how local systems respond to global, regional, and even local pressures is key in developing mitigation, adaptation, and management plans. The geomorphology of Mobile Bay in southeast Alabama (USA) has evolved considerably (e.g., bayhead delta back-stepping) over the late Holocene in response to global and regional sea-level and climate change. Smaller-scale geomorphic changes (e.g., spit and beach ridge development) have also had a significant influence on the evolution of the estuary. Organic matter characteristics, inorganic sediment geochemistry, benthic microfossils, and pollen in a ~ 3500 cal yr BP sediment sequence recovered in a gravity core (20GC) from Bon Secour Bay, a small sub-bay in the southeast corner of Mobile Bay, record time-varying marine influence. Increases in marine influence during ~3500 to 2300 cal yr BP and 1930 to 1160 cal yr BP are defined as zones with high-density and pre-dominantly calcareous foraminiferal species, abundant sand (>10%) and more marine-like geochemical signatures, which contrast the low-density and pre-dominantly agglutinated foraminiferal and more terrestrially influenced estuarine muds observed in other intervals of the sedimentary record (2300–1930 and 1160–400 cal yr BP) and the modern bay. Hydrodynamic models constrained by geomorphic boundary conditions for the time ~ 3500 cal yr BP, consistent with the most prominent marine-influenced sediment, provide insight to potential coastal configuration that might have permitted such marine water intrusion into the bay. Of several scenarios evaluated, a breach in Morgan Peninsula produces tidal circulation within the basin supportive of persistent marine incursions in the bay between ~3500 to 2300 cal yr BP. The findings show that slight variations in coastal configuration can have broad-scale effects on bays and estuaries with consequences that may relate to water quality, vertebrate and invertebrate habitat, and coastal vulnerability to episodic events like (extra)tropical storms.

Alabama, Mississippi↗
USGS2013

U.S. Geological Survey ecosystems science strategy—Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Executive Summary Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policymakers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, regional, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and nonrenewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decisionmaking is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and wellbeing of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decisionmakers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decisionmakers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge, and it integrates ecosystem science and decisionmaking, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. We envision the USGS as a leader in integrating scientific information into decisionmaking processes that affect the Nation’s natural resources and human well-being. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play a pivotal role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the Bureau can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the Department of the Interior (DOI) and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and applying the results. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected components that reinforce our vision of the USGS providing science that is at the forefront of decisionmaking: Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decisionmaking about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. Support decisionmaking. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the four strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific USGS activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role in guiding sound decisionmaking during the next decade by advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Circular↗
USGS2019

Incorporating social-ecological considerations into basin-wide responses to climate change in the Colorado River Basin

During the last 50 years, construction of dams in the western United States declined. This is partly because of increasing recognition of diverse and unintended social-ecological consequences of dams. Today, resource managers are recognizing the wide array of tradeoffs and are including a more diverse group of stakeholders in decision making for individual dams. Yet decisions at the regional scale maintain a focus on a limited number of resources and objectives, leading to inefficient and inequitable outcomes. Social-ecological changes compounded by climate change challenge this management paradigm. Increasing water demands for humans and the environment and renewed interest in hydropower present opportunities for operations that include climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies while considering tradeoffs and equitable responses at the regional scale.

Colorado River Basin↗
USGS2019

Adapting a regional water-quality model for local application: A case study for Tennessee, USA

We evaluated whether SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models calibrated for two adjacent USA regions could be applied at the local scale to support management decisions for streams in Tennessee. Nutrient-source apportionment of load is important for this local-scale application and demands careful consideration of uncertainty in the calibrated coefficients. We used Gauss-Newton regression to test the published SPARROW models for constancy of coefficient estimates between calibration sites on streams within (n = 59) versus outside (n = 327) Tennessee and concluded source apportionment was unbiased for Tennessee streams. The SPARROW models were then applied without re-calibration to predict stream loads and source apportionment for Tennessee streams and to build tools for displaying model results and evaluating source-change scenarios. This approach may inform the adaptation of other regional-scale regression models for use to address water-resource management issues in smaller-scale watersheds.

Tennessee↗
USGS2021

Ecosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under different scenarios of future climate and land use change

The State of Hawai'i passed legislation to be carbon neutral by 2045, a goal that will partly depend on carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the future direction and magnitude of the land carbon sink in the Hawaiian Islands. We used the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a spatially explicit stochastic simulation model that integrates landscape change and carbon gain-loss, to assess how projected future changes in climate and land use will influence ecosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under all combinations of two radiative forcing scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) and two land use scenarios (low and high) over a 90 year timespan from 2010 to 2100. Collectively, terrestrial ecosystems of the Hawaiian Islands acted as a net carbon sink under low radiative forcing (RCP 4.5) for the entire 90 year simulation period, with low land use change further enhancing carbon sink strength. In contrast, Hawaiian terrestrial ecosystems transitioned from a net sink to a net source of CO 2 to the atmosphere under high radiative forcing (RCP 8.5), with high land use accelerating this transition and exacerbating net carbon loss. A sensitivity test of the CO 2 fertilization effect on plant productivity revealed it to be a major source of uncertainty in projections of ecosystem carbon balance, highlighting the need for greater mechanistic understanding of plant productivity responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 . Long-term model projections such as ours that incorporate the interactive effects of land use and climate change on regional ecosystem carbon balance will be critical to evaluating the potential of ecosystem-based climate mitigation strategies.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Examining the complex relations between climate and streamflow in the mid-atlantic region of the United States

We explored the complex relations between climate and streamflow in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. In 124 watersheds across this region, we quantified spatial and temporal variation in air temperature (AT), precipitation (P), and streamflow (Q) from 1981 through 2020. Upward directional trends in monthly values of AT, P, and Q indicated an increase of 0.27–1.9 degrees Celsius, 0.12–1.9 millimeters day −1 , and 0.01–7.1 cubic meters s −1 day −1 , respectively, over the 40-year period. Comparison of the first 20 years to the last 20 years of data indicated an acceleration in the trend slopes in AT, P, and Q. Changes also were observed in temporal trends in the center of volume (CV) of both P and Q, which generally occurred later in the year; the 7-day mean low flow increased, and the annual day of occurrence of the 7-day mean low flow occurred earlier in the year. Principal components analysis revealed differences in P, Q, CVP, and CVQ trends in watersheds with median elevations greater than and less than 400 meters, as well as by latitude. A seasonal analysis revealed that P increased throughout the study area in spring, summer, and fall but decreased in winter. AT, P, and Q have broadly increased across the region over the 40-year period, and the temporal, spatial, and seasonal changes in P have affected Q. Results highlight the strong couplings between climatic variability and watershed responses.

Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia↗
USGS2025

Searching for seismic precursors - The Barry Landslide hazard clean up

The Barry Landslide, located in Barry Arm of Prince William Sound, Alaska, poses a major hazard due to its steep, unstable slopes and the potential for a massive landslide-generated tsunami. With an estimated volume of 500–700 million cubic meters, the Barry Landslide could trigger highly destructive waves. In this study, we focus on seismic signals from the Barry Landslide, which are critical for providing timely tsunami warnings. Since the summer of 2020, the region has been instrumented to monitor the landslide, but the seismic record is complicated by the presence of nearby glaciers and frequent regional earthquakes. Among these signals, we analyze a specific class of short-duration, high-frequency seismic events that exhibit strong seasonal variability, increasing in rate from late summer to mid-winter before ceasing abruptly in late winter or early spring. Our analysis suggests that the source of these signals is likely near or beneath Cascade Glacier, adjacent to the landslide, rather than within the landslide mass itself. We apply detection algorithms to construct a time history for this signal type, which we then compare with environmental factors like precipitation, temperature, and slope displacement data from ground-based radar and remote sensing. Correlations indicate that these seismic events may be driven by seasonal hydrological changes, particularly the freeze-up of subglacial water pathways. While these events are not directly linked to landslide motion, they serve as indirect markers of subsurface hydrological conditions that influence slope stability. Our findings highlight the complex interplay between glaciers, groundwater, and landslide dynamics, emphasizing the need for multi-parameter monitoring to assess evolving geohazards in the region.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Evolving environmental and geometric controls on Columbia Glacier’s continued retreat

Geometry strongly controls the dynamic behavior of marine‐terminating (tidewater) glaciers, significantly influencing advance and retreat cycles independent of climate. Yet the recent, nearly ubiquitous retreat of tidewater glaciers suggests that changes in atmospheric and oceanic forcing may also drive dynamic change. To isolate the influence of geometry on tidewater glacier dynamics, we analyzed detailed observational time series from 2012 to 2016 for two tidewater glaciers with shared dynamic histories and environmental forcing: Columbia Glacier and its former tributary (Post Glacier) in southcentral Alaska. We find that although terminus retreat has driven decadal‐scale changes in dynamics of the Columbia‐Post system, environmental factors contribute to short‐term (i.e., seasonal) dynamic variability. In particular, analysis of force balance time series indicates that observed variations in speed result from seasonal changes to the subglacial hydrologic system and associated changes in basal drag. Variations in terminus position only drive noticeable speed change when the terminus retreats from regions of relatively high basal drag. In agreement with long‐term analyses of Columbia Glacier, we find that terminus geometry can perturb the timing of seasonal ice flow patterns. Specifically, our data support the idea that retreat of a glacier terminus into deeper water is accompanied by a shift in the primary control on frontal ablation. Although our analysis focuses on two Alaskan glaciers, our data suggest that changes in the relative importance of surface meltwater and buoyancy effects on submarine melting and/or calving may manifest as a shift in terminus change seasonality and offer a mechanism to identify frontal ablation controls.

Alaska↗
USGS2002

Nitrogen loss from nonpolluted South American forests mainly via dissolved organic compounds

Conceptual 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 and numerical 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 models of nitrogen cycling in temperate forests assume that nitrogen is lost from these ecosystems predominantly by way of inorganic forms, such as nitrate and ammonium ions. Of these, nitrate is thought to be particularly mobile, being responsible for nitrogen loss to deep soil and stream waters. But human activities—such as fossil fuel combustion, fertilizer production and land-use change—have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle over large regions 9 , making it difficult to separate natural aspects of nitrogen cycling from those induced by human perturbations 10 . Here we report stream chemistry data from 100 unpolluted primary forests in temperate South America. Although the sites exhibit a broad range of environmental factors that influence ecosystem nutrient cycles 11 , 12 , 13 (such as climate, parent material, time of ecosystem development, topography and biotic diversity), we observed a remarkably consistent pattern of nitrogen loss across all forests. In contrast to findings from forests in polluted regions, streamwater nitrate concentrations are exceedingly low, such that nitrate to ammonium ratios were less than unity, and dissolved organic nitrogen is responsible for the majority of nitrogen losses from these forests. We therefore suggest that organic nitrogen losses should be considered in models of forest nutrient cycling, which could help to explain observations of nutrient limitation in temperate forest ecosystems.

South America↗
USGS2020

Effects of climate and land-use changes on fish catches across lakes at a global scale

Globally, our knowledge on lake fisheries is still limited despite their importance to food security and livelihoods. Here we show that fish catches can respond either positively or negatively to climate and land-use changes, by analyzing time-series data (1970–2014) for 31 lakes across five continents. We find that effects of a climate or land-use driver (e.g., air temperature) on lake environment could be relatively consistent in directions, but consequential changes in a lake-environmental factor (e.g., water temperature) could result in either increases or decreases in fish catch in a given lake. A subsequent correlation analysis indicates that reductions in fish catch was less likely to occur in response to potential climate and land-use changes if a lake is located in a region with greater access to clean water. This finding suggests that adequate investments for water-quality protection and water-use efficiency can provide additional benefits to lake fisheries and food security.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2014

A new analysis of Mars "Special Regions": findings of the Second MEPAG Special Regions Science Analysis Group (SR-SAG2)

A committee of the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) has reviewed and updated the description of Special Regions on Mars as places where terrestrial organisms might replicate (per the COSPAR Planetary Protection Policy). This review and update was conducted by an international team (SR-SAG2) drawn from both the biological science and Mars exploration communities, focused on understanding when and where Special Regions could occur. The study applied recently available data about martian environments and about terrestrial organisms, building on a previous analysis of Mars Special Regions (2006) undertaken by a similar team. Since then, a new body of highly relevant information has been generated from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (launched in 2005) and Phoenix (2007) and data from Mars Express and the twin Mars Exploration Rovers (all 2003). Results have also been gleaned from the Mars Science Laboratory (launched in 2011). In addition to Mars data, there is a considerable body of new data regarding the known environmental limits to life on Earth—including the potential for terrestrial microbial life to survive and replicate under martian environmental conditions. The SR-SAG2 analysis has included an examination of new Mars models relevant to natural environmental variation in water activity and temperature; a review and reconsideration of the current parameters used to define Special Regions; and updated maps and descriptions of the martian environments recommended for treatment as "Uncertain" or "Special" as natural features or those potentially formed by the influence of future landed spacecraft. Significant changes in our knowledge of the capabilities of terrestrial organisms and the existence of possibly habitable martian environments have led to a new appreciation of where Mars Special Regions may be identified and protected. The SR-SAG also considered the impact of Special Regions on potential future human missions to Mars, both as locations of potential resources and as places that should not be inadvertently contaminated by human activity.

Astrobiology↗
USGS2022

Are you sleeping? Are you sleeping? Predicting invasion potential of sleeper species

Sleeper species are non-native species that are established in a region and could become invasive as climate change makes conditions more favorable for many non-native species. Before we can manage potential sleepers, we must first know their identity. We analyzed non-native, established plants in the Northeast United States (CT, MA, ME, NH, NY, RI, VT) using the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) protocol to identify species that have negative impacts on native ecological communities as well as negative impacts on agriculture, economies, or human health. Here, we highlight four potential sleeper species to watch out for. A full list of potential sleeper species and reported impacts can be found at https://doi.org/10.7275/yfss-tt69.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2018

Tropical wetlands in the Anthropocene: The critical role of wet-dry cycles

In the face of climate change and increasing human water demands for agriculture, industry, and cities, the fate of wetland ecosystems in tropical wet-dry climates is threatened. To maximize biodiversity and ecological resilience, the value of the ecosystem services provided by tropical wetlands can be incorporated into regional land use and water management decisions. Environmental planners and resource managers can work to protect both the “dry” and “wet” phases of the wet-dry hydrologic cycles. These cycles have shaped and maintained these ecosystems in the past and they can be used to maximize biodiversity and resilience in the future.

Solutions Journal↗
USGS2017

Forecasting consequences of changing sea ice availability for Pacific walruses

The accelerating rate of anthropogenic alteration and disturbance of environments has increased the need for forecasting effects of environmental change on fish and wildlife populations. Models linking projections of environmental change with behavioral responses and bioenergetic effects can provide a basis for these forecasts. There is particular interest in forecasting effects of projected reductions in sea ice availability on Pacific walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ). Declining extent of summer sea ice in the Chukchi Sea has caused Pacific walruses to increase use of coastal haulouts and decrease use of more productive offshore feeding areas. Such climate-induced changes in distribution and behavior could ultimately affect the status of the population. We developed behavioral models to relate changes in sea ice availability to adult female walrus movements and activity levels, and adapted previously developed bioenergetics models to relate those activity levels to energy requirements and the ability to meet those requirements. We then linked these models to general circulation model projections of future ice availability to forecast autumn body condition for female walruses during mid- and late-century time periods. Our results suggest that as sea ice becomes less available in the Chukchi Sea, female walruses will spend more time in the southwestern region of that sea, less time resting, and less time foraging. Median forecasted autumn body masses were 7–12% lower in future scenarios than during recent times, but posterior distributions broadly overlapped and median forecasted seasonal mass losses (15–34%) were comparable to seasonal mass losses routinely experienced by other pinnipeds. These seasonal reductions in body condition would be unlikely to result in demographic effects, but if walruses were unable to rebuild endogenous reserves while wintering in the Bering Sea, cumulative effects could have implications for reproduction and survival, ultimately affecting the status of the Pacific walrus population. Our approach provides a general framework for forecasting consequences of the broad range of environmental changes and anthropogenic disturbances that may affect bioenergetics through behavioral responses or changes in prey availability.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2016

Multi-decadal increases in dissolved organic carbon and alkalinity flux from the Mackenzie drainage basin to the Arctic Ocean

Riverine exports of organic and inorganic carbon (OC, IC) to oceans are intricately linked to processes occurring on land. Across high latitudes, thawing permafrost, alteration of hydrologic flow paths, and changes in vegetation may all affect this flux, with subsequent implications for regional and global carbon (C) budgets. Using a unique, multi-decadal dataset of continuous discharge coupled with water chemistry measurements for the Mackenzie River, we show major increases in dissolved OC (DOC) and IC (as alkalinity) fluxes since the early 1970s, for a watershed that covers 1.8 M km 2 of northwestern Canada, and provides substantial inputs of freshwater and biogeochemical constituents to the Arctic Ocean. Over a 39-year period of record, DOC flux at the Mackenzie mouth increased by 39.3% (44.5 ± 22.6 Gmol), while alkalinity flux increased by 12.5% (61.5 ± 60.1 Gmol). Isotopic analyses and substantial increases in sulfate flux indicate that increases in alkalinity are driven by accelerating sulfide oxidation, a process that liberates IC from rock and soils in the absence of CO 2 consumption. Seasonal and sub-catchment trends suggest that permafrost thaw plays an important role in the observed increases in DOC and alkalinity: sub-catchment increases for all constituents are confined to northern, permafrost-affected regions, while observed increases in autumn to winter are consistent with documented landscape-scale changes that have resulted from changing thaw dynamics. This increase in DOC and sulfide-derived alkalinity represents a substantial intensification of land-to-ocean C mobilization, at a level that is significant within the regional C budget. The change we observe, for example, is similar to current and projected future rates of CO 2 consumption by weathering in the Mackenzie basin.

Environmental Research Letters↗