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At least 505 records · Page 28Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Threats posed by the Fungal Kingdom to humans, wildlife, and agriculture

The Fungal Kingdom includes at least six million eukaryotic species and is remarkable with respect to its profound impact on global health, biodiversity, ecology, agriculture, manufacturing, and biomedical research. Approximately 625 fungal species have been reported to infect vertebrates, 200 of which can be human-associated, either as commensals and members of our microbiome or as pathogens that cause infectious diseases. These organisms pose a growing threat to human health with the global increase in the incidence of invasive fungal infections, prevalence of fungal allergy, and the evolution of fungal pathogens resistant to some or all current classes of antifungals. More broadly, there has been an unprecedented and worldwide emergence of fungal pathogens impacting animal and plant biodiversity. Approximately 8,000 species of fungi and Oomycetes are associated with plant disease. Indeed, across agriculture, such fungal diseases of plants include new devastating epidemics of trees and jeopardize food security worldwide by causing epidemics in staple and commodity crops that feed billions. Further, ingestion of mycotoxins contributes to ill health and causes cancer. Coordinated international research efforts, enhanced technology translation, and greater policy outreach by scientists are needed to more fully understand the biology and drivers that underlie the emergence of fungal diseases and to mitigate against their impacts. Here, we focus on poignant examples of emerging fungal threats in each of three areas: human health, wildlife biodiversity, and food security.

mBio↗
USGS2022

Complex demographic responses to contrasting climate drivers lead to divergent population trends across the range of a threatened alpine plant

Alpine plants are likely to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their restricted distributions and sensitivity to rapid environmental shifts occurring in high-elevation ecosystems. The well-studied Haleakalā silversword (‘āhinahina, Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum ) already exhibits substantial climate-associated population decline, and offers the opportunity to understand the ecological and demographic mechanisms that underlie ongoing and predicted range shifts. We use nearly four decades of demographic monitoring for this threatened Hawaiian species, in combination with other biological, ecological and climate data to explore demographic responses across its entire range. We construct and independently validate population models for two elevation zones representing the species’ lower trailing and higher stable regions. Differences in population growth rate (lambda) between trailing and stable regions were influenced most strongly by lower survival of juvenile and small adult size classes, as well as by lower recruitment and lower survival of seedlings and large adults in the trailing region. Furthermore, seed production appears to have decreased from the 1980’s to present in the trailing region, and is now significantly less than in the stable region. Lambda and several underlying vital rates were significantly associated with wetter dry season conditions in the lower trailing region, indicating water limitation. In the higher elevation stable region, in contrast, lambda and vital rates were associated with warmer air temperatures, indicating cold limitation. These contrasting demographic patterns and climate dependencies lead to a high probability of extinction over the next century in the lower region, where most plants occur, but zero probability of the same in the higher region, according to stochastic population projections. Drier future scenarios further increase the probability of extinction at low elevations. The combined results illustrate the complexity in the demographic response and future viability that can occur across the range of a single species.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2025

Ecological acclimation: A framework to integrate fast and slow responses to climate change

Ecological responses to climate change occur across vastly different time-scales, from minutes for physiological plasticity to decades or centuries for community turnover and evolutionary adaptation. Accurately predicting the range of ecosystem trajectories will require models that incorporate both fast processes that may keep pace with climate change and slower ones likely to lag behind and generate disequilibrium dynamics. However, the knowledge necessary for this integration is currently fragmented across disciplines. We develop ‘ecological acclimation’ as a unifying framework to emphasize the similarity of dynamics driven by processes operating on dramatically different time-scales and levels of biological organization. The framework focuses on ecoclimate sensitivities, measured as the change in an ecological response variable per unit of climate change. Acclimation processes acting at different time-scales cause these sensitivities to shift in magnitude and even direction over time. We highlight shifting ecoclimate sensitivities in case studies from diverse ecosystems, including terrestrial plant communities, coral reefs and soil microbiomes. Models predicting future ecosystem states inevitably make assumptions about acclimation processes; these assumptions must be explicit for users to evaluate whether a model is appropriate for a given forecast horizon. Similarly, decision frameworks that clearly account for multiple acclimation processes and their distinct time-scales will help natural resource managers plan for ecological impacts of climate change from years to many decades into the future. We outline a synthetic research programme focused on the time-scales of ecological acclimation to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasts.

Functional Ecology↗
USGS1984

Chemical and biological quality of streams at the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, Indiana, 1978-80

A variety of land uses affects water quality of streams at the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore. Discharge from storm sewers and runoff from roads contributed lead, zinc, and chlorinated hydrocarbons (chlordane, DOT, ODD, DDE, and PCB's) to all streams except Derby ditch. In addition, the Little Calumet River received ammonia from industrial discharges, and organic materials, nitrogen, phosphorus, and fecal coliform from wastewater-treatment-plant and combinedsanitary- and storm-sewer discharges. As a result, water at some sites in the lower reaches of the Little Calumet River contained dissolved-ammonium-nitrogen concentrations exceeding 0.10 milligram per liter, dissolved-oxygen concentrations less than 3.0 milligrams per liter, and fecal coliform populations exceeding 2,000 colonies per 100 milliliters. Seepage from two landfills may have caused the concentration of dissolved solids in the west Grand Calumet River lagoon to exceed that in the east lagoon. Ammonium concentrations in the west lagoon ranged from 13 to 16 milligrams per liter as nitrogen. Pesticides used in agricultural areas were the major source of DOT, ODD, DDE, and dieldrin on streambed materials. Runoff from residential areas was a major source of nitrate, organic materials, and chlordane in Derby ditch and Dunes Creek. Wetland drainage contributed significant amounts of organic materials to streams and at times increased concentrations of dissolved sulfate and iron. Dissolved-iron concentrations correlated with dissolved-organic-carbon concentrations in yellow-brown water of Kintzele and Derby ditches.

Indiana↗
USGS2023

Invasion-mediated mutualism disruption is evident across heterogeneous environmental conditions and varying invasion intensities

The impact of a biological invasion on native communities is expected to be uneven across invaded landscapes due to differences in local abiotic conditions, invader abundance, and traits and composition of the native community. One way to improve predictive ability about the impact of an invasive species given variable conditions is to exploit known mechanisms driving invasive species' success. Invasive plants frequently exhibit allelopathic traits, which can be directly toxic to plants or indirectly impact them via disruption of root symbionts, including mycorrhizal fungi. The indirect mechanism – mutualism disruption – is predicted to impact plants that rely on mycorrhizas but not affect non-mycorrhizal plant species. To assess whether invader-driven mutualism disruption explains observed changes in native plant communities, we analyzed long-term (1998–2018) plant cover data from forest plots across the state of Illinois. We evaluated native plant communities experiencing a range of abundance of invasive allelopathic garlic mustard Alliaria petiolata and varying environmental conditions. Consistent with the mutualism disruption hypothesis, we showed that as garlic mustard abundance increased over time in 0.25 m 2 sampling quadrats, the abundance of mycorrhizal plant species decreased, but non-mycorrhizal plant species did not. Over space and time, garlic mustard abundance predicted plant abundances and diversity at the quadrat level, but this relationship was not present at a larger scale when quadrats were aggregated within sites. Garlic mustard's impact on the plant community was highly localized, yet it was as important as abiotic variables for predicting local plant diversity. We showed that garlic mustard abundance was a key predictor of patterns of plant diversity across invasion intensity and environmental heterogeneity in a way that is consistent with mutualism disruption. Our work indicates that the mutualism disruption hypothesis can provide generalizable predictions of the impacts of allelopathic invasive plants that are evident at a broad spatial scale.

Ecography↗
USGS2018

Thiamine deficiency in fishes: Causes, consequences, and potential solutions

Thiamine deficiency complex (TDC) is a disorder resulting from the inability to acquire or retain thiamine (vitamin B 1 ) and has been documented in organisms in aquatic ecosystems ranging from the Baltic Sea to the Laurentian Great Lakes. The biological mechanisms leading to TDC emergence may vary among systems, but in fishes, one common outcome is high mortality among early life stages. Here, we review the causes and consequences of thiamine deficiency in fishes and identify potential solutions. First, we examine the biochemical and physiological roles of thiamine in vertebrates and find that thiamine deficiency consistently results in impaired neurological function across diverse taxa. Next, we review natural producers of thiamine, which include bacteria, fungi, and plants, and suggest that thiamine is not currently limiting for most animal species inhabiting natural aquatic environments. A survey of historic occurrences of thiamine deficiency identifies consumption of a thiamine-degrading enzyme, thiaminase, as the primary explanation for low levels of thiamine in individuals and subsequent onset of TDC. Lastly, we review conservation and management strategies for TDC mitigation ranging from evolutionary rescue to managing for a diverse forage base. As recent evidence suggests occurrences of thiamine deficiency may be increasing in frequency, increased awareness and a better mechanistic understanding of the underlying causes associated with thiamine deficiency may help prevent further population declines.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗
USGS2022

Prioritizing pharmaceutical contaminants in Great Lakes tributaries using risk-based screening techniques

In a study of 44 diverse sampling sites across 16 Great Lakes tributaries, 110 pharmaceuticals were detected of 257 monitored. The present study evaluated the ecological relevance of detected chemicals and identified heavily impacted areas to help inform resource managers and guide future investigations. Ten pharmaceuticals (caffeine, nicotine, albuterol, sulfamethoxazole, venlafaxine, acetaminophen, carbamazepine, gemfibrozil, metoprolol, and thiabendazole) were distinguished as having the greatest potential for biological effects based on comparison to screening-level benchmarks derived using information from two biological effects databases, the ECOTOX Knowledgebase and the ToxCast database. Available evidence did not suggest substantial concern for 75% of the monitored pharmaceuticals, including 147 undetected pharmaceuticals and 49 pharmaceuticals with screening-level alternative benchmarks. However, because of a lack of biological effects information, screening values were not available for 51 detected pharmaceuticals. Samples containing the greatest pharmaceutical concentrations and having the highest detection frequencies were from Lake Erie, southern Lake Michigan, and Lake Huron tributaries. Samples collected during low-flow periods had higher pharmaceutical concentrations than those collected during increased-flow periods. The wastewater-treatment plant effluent content in streams correlated positively with pharmaceutical concentrations. However, deviation from this correlation demonstrated that secondary factors, such as multiple pharmaceutical sources, were likely present at some sites. Further research could investigate high-priority pharmaceuticals as well as those for which alternative benchmarks could not be developed.

Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Wisc↗
USGS2017

Soil microbial community composition is correlated to soil carbon processing along a boreal wetland formation gradient

Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles. Microbial communities play an integral role in soil biogeochemical cycles; knowledge about microbial composition helps provide a mechanistic understanding of these ecosystem-level phenomena. Next generation sequencing approaches were used to investigate changes in microbial functional groups during ecosystem development, in response to climate change, in northern boreal wetlands. A gradient of wetlands that developed following permafrost degradation was used to characterize changes in the soil microbial communities that mediate C cycling: a bog representing an “undisturbed” system with intact permafrost, and a younger bog and an older bog that formed following the disturbance of permafrost thaw. Reference 16S rRNA databases and several diversity indices were used to assess structural differences among these communities, to assess relationships between soil microbial community composition and various environmental variables including redox potential and pH. Rates of potential CO2 and CH4 gas production were quantified to correlate sequence data with gas flux. The abundance of organic C degraders was highest in the youngest bog, suggesting higher rates of microbial processes, including potential CH4 production. In addition, alpha diversity was also highest in the youngest bog, which seemed to be related to a more neutral pH and a lower redox potential. These results could potentially be driven by increased niche differentiation in anaerobic soils. These results suggest that ecosystem structure, which was largely driven by changes in edaphic and plant community characteristics between the “undisturbed” permafrost bog and the two bogs formed following permafrost thaw, strongly influenced microbial function.

European Journal of Soil Biology↗
USGS2022

Histochemical evidence for nitrogen‐transfer Endosymbiosis in non‐photosynthetic cells of leaves and inflorescence bracts of angiosperms

We used light and confocal microscopy to visualize bacteria in leaf and bract cells of more than 30 species in 18 families of seed plants. Through histochemical analysis, we detected hormones (including ethylene and nitric oxide), superoxide, and nitrogenous chemicals (including nitric oxide and nitrate) around bacteria within plant cells. Bacteria were observed in epidermal cells, various filamentous and glandular trichomes, and other non-photosynthetic cells. Most notably, bacteria showing nitrate formation based on histochemical staining were present in glandular trichomes of some dicots (e.g., Humulus lupulus and Cannabis sativa ). Glandular trichome chemistry is hypothesized to function to scavenge oxygen around bacteria and reduce oxidative damage to intracellular bacterial cells. Experiments to assess the differential absorption of isotopic nitrogen into plants suggest the assimilation of nitrogen into actively growing tissues of plants, where bacteria are most active and carbohydrates are more available. The leaf and bract cell endosymbiosis types outlined in this paper have not been previously reported and may be important in facilitating plant growth, development, oxidative stress resistance, and nutrient absorption into plants. It is unknown whether leaf and bract cell endosymbioses are significant in increasing the nitrogen content of plants. From the experiments that we conducted, it is impossible to know whether plant trichomes evolved specifically as organs for nitrogen fixation or if, instead, trichomes are structures in which bacteria easily colonize and where some casual nitrogen transfer may occur between bacteria and plant cells. It is likely that the endosymbioses seen in leaves and bracts are less efficient than those of root nodules of legumes in similar plants. However, the presence of endosymbioses that yield nitrate in plants could confer a reduced need for soil nitrogen and constitute increased nitrogen-use efficiency, even if the actual amount of nitrogen transferred to plant cells is small. More research is needed to evaluate the importance of nitrogen transfer within leaf and bract cells of plants

Biology↗
USGS2023

Multi-omics responses in tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nestlings from the Maumee Area of Concern, Maumee River, Ohio

A multi-omics approach was utilized to identify altered biological responses and functions, and to prioritize contaminants to assess the risks of chemical mixtures in the Maumee Area of Concern (AOC), Maumee River, OH, USA. The Maumee AOC is designated by the United States Environmental Protection Agency as having significant beneficial use impairments, including degradation of fish and wildlife populations, bird or animal deformities or reproduction problems, and loss of fish and wildlife habitat. Tree swallow ( Tachycineta bicolor ) nestlings were collected at five sites along the Maumee River, which included wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and industrial land-use sites. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated dibenzo p dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs), and chlorinated pesticide concentrations were elevated in Maumee tree swallows, relative to a remote reference site, Star Lake, WI, USA. Liver tissue was utilized for non-targeted transcriptome and targeted metabolome evaluation. A significantly differentially expressed gene cluster related to a downregulation in cell growth and cell cycle regulation was identified when comparing all Maumee River sites with the reference site. There was an upregulation of lipogenesis genes, such as PPAR signaling ( HMGCS2 , SLC22A5 ), biosynthesis of unsaturated fatty acids (FASN, SCD, ELOVL2, and FADS2), and higher lipogenesis related metabolites, such as docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), and arachidonic acid (AA) at two industrial land-use sites, Ironhead and Maumee, relative to WWTP sites (Perrysburg and SideCut), and the reference site. Toledo Water, in the vicinity of the other two industrial sites and also adjacent to a WWTP, showed a mix of signals between industrial land-use and WWTP land-use. PAHs, oxychlordane, and PBDEs were determined to be the most likely causes of the differentiation in biological responses, including de novo lipogenesis and biosynthesis of unsaturated fatty acids.

Ohio↗
USGS2024

Glacier National Park bumble bee survey report 2023

Glacier National Park's grasslands provide important contributions to the character and ecology of the park. In 1999-2001, Glacier National Park (hereafter, the park) established 155 permanent vegetation monitoring plots to inventory grassland vegetation communities east of the Continental Divide. In June of 2023, the Blackfeet Nation (Amskapi Piikuni) re-introduced a herd of free roaming bison on adjacent tribal land (the linnii Initiative), and those bison may enter the park. Because grasslands are important areas for bison grazing, and because biological communities have likely changed since the initial inventories, the park’s vegetation program began revisiting grassland monitoring plots in 2018. New data will provide insights into how these grasslands, and the wildlife that depend on them, have changed over the past two decades. Data on pollinators in these grasslands, however, are limited. Bison have been shown to influence plant communities, for example, by increasing herbaceous forb diversity and drought resilience (Elson and Hartnett 2017; Ratajczak et al. 2022). These changes directly influence resources available to foraging pollinators. To provide understanding of pollinators prior to bison reintroduction, bumble bee surveying at these grassland plots began in 2020 and has continued through 2023. Target sites for 2020-2022 focused on collecting data at plots where new vegetation surveys were recently completed to match current vegetation data with the bumble bee data.

Montana↗
USGS2011

Guidelines for collecting and maintaining archives for genetic monitoring

Rapid advances in molecular genetic techniques and the statistical analysis of genetic data have revolutionized the way that populations of animals, plants and microorganisms can be monitored. Genetic monitoring is the practice of using molecular genetic markers to track changes in the abundance, diversity or distribution of populations, species or ecosystems over time, and to follow adaptive and non-adaptive genetic responses to changing external conditions. In recent years, genetic monitoring has become a valuable tool in conservation management of biological diversity and ecological analysis, helping to illuminate and define cryptic and poorly understood species and populations. Many of the detected biodiversity declines, changes in distribution and hybridization events have helped to drive changes in policy and management. Because a time series of samples is necessary to detect trends of change in genetic diversity and species composition, archiving is a critical component of genetic monitoring. Here we discuss the collection, development, maintenance, and use of archives for genetic monitoring. This includes an overview of the genetic markers that facilitate effective monitoring, describes how tissue and DNA can be stored, and provides guidelines for proper practice.

Conservation Genetics Resources↗
USGS2011

Sonoran Desert ecosystem transformation by a C 4 grass without the grass/fire cycle

Aim Biological invasions facilitate ecosystem transformation by altering the structure and function, diversity, dominance and disturbance regimes. A classic case is the grass–fire cycle in which grass invasion increases the frequency, scale and/or intensity of wildfires and promotes the continued invasion of invasive grasses. Despite wide acceptance of the grass–fire cycle, questions linger about the relative roles that interspecific plant competition and fire play in ecosystem transformations. Location Sonoran Desert Arizona Upland of the Santa Catalina Mountains, Arizona, USA. Methods We measured species cover, density and saguaro ( Carnegiea gigantea ) size structure along gradients of Pennisetum ciliare invasion at 10 unburned/ungrazed P. ciliare patches. Regression models quantified differences in diversity, cover and density with respect to P. ciliare cover, and residence time and a Fisher's exact test detected demographic changes in saguaro populations. Because P. ciliare may have initially invaded locations that were both more invasible and less diverse, we ran analyses with and without the plots in which initial infestations were located. Results Richness and diversity decreased with P. ciliare cover as did cover and density of most dominant species. Richness and diversity declined with increasing time since invasion, suggesting an ongoing transformation. The proportion of old-to-young Carnegiea gigantea was significantly lower in plots with dominant P. ciliare cover. Main conclusions Rich desert scrub (15–25 species per plot) was transformed into depauperate grassland (2–5 species per plot) within 20 years following P. ciliare invasion without changes to the fire regime. While the onset of a grass–fire cycle may drive ecosystem change in the later stages and larger scales of grass invasions of arid lands, competition by P. ciliare can drive small-scale transformations earlier in the invasion. Linking competition-induced transformation rates with spatially explicit models of spread may be necessary for predicting landscape-level impacts on ecosystem processes in advance of a grass–fire cycle.

Arizona↗
USGS2025

Arsenic accumulation in Sonora Mud Turtles (Kinosternon sonoriense) in an unusual freshwater food web

Montezuma Well is an unusual fishless, spring-fed, desert wetland in central Arizona. Water in the wetland is naturally enriched with > 100 µg/l dissolved geogenic arsenic (As) and supports a simple aquatic food web dominated by a small number of endemic invertebrate species that achieve high abundances. Previous studies of As among various environmental compartments and organisms in Montezuma Well did not include omnivorous Sonora Mud turtles ( Kinosternon sonoriense ) despite their potential importance in the As cycle by virtue of their substantial biomass and role as top predators. We measured As concentrations in water, sediment, and organisms (macrophytes, amphipods, insects, leeches, and turtles) representing a range of trophic levels in order to document the importance of turtles at the apex of the Montezuma Well food web and in the As cycle. Concentrations of As in turtles varied according to tissue type. The greatest values (up to 26.77 mg/kg dry weight) were in the scutes of 1 of our oldest turtles (31.5 yrs). These elevated concentrations may be due to the affinity of As to react with sulfur in the keratin of scutes, and therefore might reflect duration of exposure in long-lived turtles. Although As concentrations generally tend to decrease when moving up to higher trophic levels in a food web, our results were different. Relatively elevated concentrations reported in sediments by us and a previous study declined in plant samples as expected. Amphipod concentrations increased but then decreased again in 3 of their invertebrate predators. Arsenic concentrations in endemic leeches were extremely elevated with a mean value of 72.2 mg/kg. The mean concentration of As in turtles was 7.08 mg/kg across tissue types and was greater than the plants or invertebrates they eat, with the notable exception of leeches, which have been proposed to be part of their diet.

Arizona↗
USGS2005

Biological research on fire in the West

Wildland fires are a natural feature of many ecosystems, including grasslands, forests, and shrublands. How-ever, years of fire exclusion have led to accumulations of dead fuels and increases in the density of fire-intolerant species. In most western states, recent fires burning in these altered ecosystems have caused significant damage and huge economic losses to homes, busi-nesses, and communities. They also have dis-turbed forests and rangelands as well as their associated watersheds, plants, and animals. Every western state is concerned about dam-age from such catastrophic fires, and there is strong interest from all sectors in prevent-ing and reducing the resulting damage in the future. There is also interest in the use of fire as a management tool for reducing hazards and restoring damaged ecosystems and for returning fire to its natural role in wilderness ecosystems.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2014

Lianas as invasive species in North America

Liana diversity is typically low in the temperate zones; however, the influx of non-native invasive liana species in North America has increased local diversity at the expense of native habitats and species. Some of the most illustrative studies of invasive lianas in temperate North America compared the biological traits of invasive lianas with native congeners or ecological analogs. The majority of these studies focused on two species, Celastrus orbiculatus (oriental bittersweet) and Lonicera japonica (Japanese honeysuckle). Temperate zone lianas generally have higher photosynthetic rates than other early successional species and their host trees. Invasive lianas are having an increasing impact on the dynamics and trajectories of North American plant communities. They often exhibit superior growth and survival compared to their native counterparts, and in some cases, invasive lianas may directly contribute to the decline of their native correlates.

Book chapter↗
USGS2022

Representing plant diversity in land models: An evolutionary approach to make ‘Functional Types’ more functional

Plants are critical mediators of terrestrial mass and energy fluxes, and their structural and functional traits have profound impacts on local and global climate, biogeochemistry, biodiversity, and hydrology. Yet Earth System Models (ESMs), our most powerful tools for predicting the effects of humans on the coupled biosphere-atmosphere system, simplify the incredible diversity of land plants into a handful of coarse categories of ‘Plant Functional Types’ (PFTs) that often fail to capture ecological dynamics such as biome distributions. The inclusion of more realistic functional diversity is a recognized goal for ESMs, yet there is currently no consistent, widely accepted way to add diversity to models, i.e. to determine what new PFTs to add and with what data to constrain their parameters. We review approaches to representing plant diversity in ESMs and draw on recent ecological and evolutionary findings to present an evolution-based functional type approach for further disaggregating functional diversity. Specifically, the prevalence of niche conservatism, or the tendency of closely related taxa to retain similar ecological and functional attributes through evolutionary time, reveals that evolutionary relatedness is a powerful framework for summarizing functional similarities and differences among plant types. We advocate that Plant Functional Types based on dominant evolutionary lineages (‘Lineage Functional Types’) will provide an ecologically defensible, tractable, and scalable framework for representing plant diversity in next-generation ESMs, with the potential to improve parameterization, process representation, and model benchmarking. We highlight how the importance of evolutionary history for plant function can unify the work of disparate fields to improve predictive modeling of the Earth system.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2011

Understanding interaction effects of climate change and fire management on bird distributions through combined process and habitat models

Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process-based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail ( Callipepla squamata ), Loggerhead Shrike ( Lanius ludovicianus ), and Rock Wren ( Salpinctes obsoletus ), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo ( Fouquieria splendens ) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf-area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species' use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.

Chihuahuan Desert↗