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USGS2024

ShakeAlert® and schools: Incorporating earthquake early warning in school districts in Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington

The U.S. Geological Survey-managed ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system is the first public alerting system in the United States to provide rapid mass notification when an earthquake is detected. Although public alert delivery via mobile phones began in California in 2019 followed by Oregon and Washington in 2021, little is known about what might drive widespread implementation in at-risk institutional settings such as schools. For example, there has been limited research on how to best integrate earthquake early warning into existing emergency plans, alert systems, and drills to keep school children and personnel safe in an earthquake. To address this gap, in the spring of 2022, every school district superintendent in Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington was sent a 15-min online survey. The survey assessed superintendent knowledge of ShakeAlert, preferences for alert messaging, and perceived opportunities and barriers to incorporating the system in schools. The results showed that superintendents had low awareness of ShakeAlert but held positive perceptions of the system's potential to enable life-saving protective actions. A major barrier to adoption included the perceived financial cost of implementing and maintaining the system. There were some statistically significant differences in state responses, and future research could investigate the specific needs of each state based on school district size and composition, hazard exposure, and earthquake experience. Together these findings can help inform targeted strategies to increase ShakeAlert adoption in schools and ultimately improve the safety of school children and staff during earthquakes.

Alaska, California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2025

Modeling byproduct and coproduct mine production and mineral substitution using multidimensional supply curves: Application to the Cu-Co-Ni system and beyond

Rapid demand growth is expected for many metals used in the energy transition. Many of these metals are byproducts of other commodities. Byproduct production’s price response is tied to host mineral economics, complicating its supply dynamics. Moreover, many of these metals are used in applications where the material properties desired are difficult to substitute; effectively, limiting how quickly demand can adapt to changes in commodity price. Previous work has demonstrated the interconnectivity of jointly produced mineral commodities from the supply side, where the copper–cobalt–nickel system was used and demand was assumed independent across commodities. Studies to understand byproduct-coproduct market interconnectivity on the demand side are limited, while studies on the interconnectivity of supply and demand simultaneously are even more so. We propose a modification to the multicommodity supply curve method to enable inter-commodity effects on demand simultaneous with supply. In batteries, high cobaltprices may push consumers to transition to high-nickel chemistries, causing the nickel demand surface to decrease with nickel price but increase with cobaltprice, creating a two-dimensional demand surface. Below cross-price elasticities of 0.05, inter-commodity effects were found to be negligible, potentially permitting exclusion of these effects for many commodities. This additional demand curve complexity introduces potential computation challenges alongside the capacity to model many interrelated commodity systems such as rare earth elements, ferroalloys, country-oriented subsidies or restrictions, and bifurcated sustainable metals markets. By presenting the work done on multicommodity supply surfaces to date and potential new directions, this work aims to catalyze the next round of innovative approaches to modeling jointly produced commodities.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2024

Use of a numerical groundwater-flow model and projected climate scenarios to simulate the effects of future climate conditions on base flow for reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer and Foss Reservoir storage, western Oklahoma

To better understand the relation between climate variability and future groundwater resources in reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer and Foss Reservoir in western Oklahoma, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, used a previously published numerical groundwater-flow model and climate-model data to investigate changes in base flow and reservoir storage by evaluating three scenarios. The three projected climate scenarios were (1) a central-tendency scenario, (2) a warmer/drier scenario, and (3) a less-warm/wetter scenario. To estimate future base flow and groundwater availability in western Oklahoma, specifically in reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer, downscaled climate-model data from 231 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) projections coupled with a previously published numerical groundwater-flow model were used to compare the effects of different climate scenarios on the aquifer. Changes in base flow and groundwater-level elevations during a 30-year baseline scenario (1985–2014) and the three 30-year projected climate scenarios (2050–79) under central-tendency, warmer/drier, and less-warm/wetter climatic conditions were assessed by using the calibrated model. In the simulations, the amount of base flow and reservoir storage declined in the central-tendency and warmer/drier scenarios compared to the amount of base flow and reservoir storage under historical climatic conditions (baseline scenario). Mean annual change in reservoir storage decreased from the baseline scenario the most in the warmer/drier scenario, followed by the central-tendency scenario, but increased in the less-warm/wetter scenario compared to the baseline scenario. At the end of the simulation period (2079), the largest magnitude differences in groundwater-level elevations in all three projected climate scenarios relative to the baseline scenario occurred upstream from Foss Reservoir. Results from incorporating downscaled climate projections into localized numerical groundwater-flow models can highlight potential future changes in and implications for groundwater resources and availability.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2024

Introduction and methods of analysis for peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. Flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This chapter summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flow. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The climate data consist of monthly time series estimates of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, soil moisture storage, snow water equivalent, and runoff on a 3.1-mile by 3.1-mile grid for the conterminous United States. Statistical and graphical analyses were used to investigate potential changes in hydrology and climate. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. To examine potential causal drivers of changes, the climate data were analyzed graphically and statistically. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Mon↗
USGS2025

Metaproteomics and metagenomics reveal microbial pathways of organic matter degradation and methanogenesis in a marginally producing natural gas well

The expansion of natural gas production and utilization worldwide has led to the decline of many once-productive wells, eventually resulting in costly well-plugging and unused infrastructure. However, in areas like the Michigan basin, MI, where the majority of natural gas is biogenically produced, microbial communities could potentially be stimulated to generate additional methane, increasing gas supply and reducing the need to drill new wells. In this study, we performed metaproteomic, metagenomic, and geochemical analyses of Antrim Shale formation water from a marginally producing natural gas well to evaluate resident microbial community functions in the context of potential bioenergy production. Functional proteins involved in methanogenesis, degradation/catabolism (including organic matter degradation), biosynthesis, energy utilization, transmembrane transport, and stress response were among the most commonly identified groups. Three metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) were characterized, including Methanomicrobiaceae, Methanothrix , and Smithella . For each, the identified proteins involved in methanogenesis and the degradation of diverse organic compounds, strongly suggest their role in utilizing shale-derived organic matter. These findings provide an increased understanding of the microorganisms and their metabolisms generating natural gas in the Antrim Shale and establish a foundation for future stimulation efforts aimed at enhancing biogenic methane production in marginal gas wells.

Michigan↗
USGS2026

Family life is critical for migration and survival in a long-lived social bird

Extended parental care is common among birds and particularly well known among long-lived migratory species. Yet, factors influencing the duration of parental care are poorly understood, and empirical evidence for the functional importance of family life for offspring development is scarce. Using unique tracking and genetic data of 55 adult and juvenile migratory Bewick’s swans, among which 18 parent-offspring pairs and 13 sibling pairs, we quantify variation in family bond duration and identify the cause and consequences of their dissolution. Families generally broke up during the second half of the first northward migration of the offspring, when offspring were nearly one year old. Earlier separation occurred on the wintering grounds in response to disturbance ( n = 10 juveniles) and led to delayed migration and, critically, lower survival (40 vs. 86%). Our results provide rare empirical evidence that family bonds, as a pathway for social learning, are not just important, but vital to the migration and survival of young family-living birds.

Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology↗
USGS2026

Deaf, deafblind, and hard of hearing university student experiences with earthquake early warning in the United States: Evaluating language planning and technology access

The growing literature on deaf and hard of hearing (DHH+) populations and disasters demonstrates that emergency communication (including alerts) is not reaching global DHH + individuals with dangerous impacts for morbidity and mortality. This is the first research study in the U.S. to qualitatively explore the experiences of DHH + persons with earthquake early warning (EEW) through group-based dialogue sessions. The study investigates eight DHH + university students'past earthquake experiences, access to EEW alerts, and perceptions of ShakeAlert Ⓡ , an EEW system for detecting earthquakes and alerting residents of California, Oregon, and Washington. Findings highlight key gaps in disaster alert usability within four thematic areas: lack of messaging in participants' language(s), unclear alert messaging, deficient message delivery mechanisms for deafblind persons, and insufficient access to earthquake information and training that leads to dependence on informal information networks. Weaknesses identified in these four themes reduce DHH + trust in EEW systems and compromise the capacity of alert recipients to take swift protective action or to mentally prepare before shaking starts. The study also underscores structural factors such as insufficient linguistic representation in disaster language planning and technology design, which ignores the linguistic and sensory access needs of DHH + individuals. Building on disaster language planning frameworks, we recommend involving DHH + populations to co-develop EEW alerts. By centering DHH + perspectives, this research contributes to ongoing efforts to ensure that EEW systems reach everyone.

California↗
USGS2026

Estimating habitat availability for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) to inform reintroduction planning in the middle Snake River basin, USA

Anadromous fishes have been blocked from the middle Snake River basin since the construction of flood control, irrigation, and hydroelectric projects during the 19 th and 20 th centuries, culminating with the construction of Hells Canyon Dam (river kilometer [rkm] 398) in 1967. Seven large watersheds in the blocked area of the basin are under consideration for Pacific salmon reintroduction. The primary objective of this study was to identify and characterize potential reintroduction sites with high-quality rearing and spawning habitat for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and steelhead ( O. mykiss ) upstream of the Hells Canyon Complex in Idaho, Oregon, and Nevada, USA. We created and tested habitat models to predict rearing presence/absence, rearing abundance, and spawning presence/absence using channel morphology, hydrology, and stream temperature variables obtained from regional peer-reviewed datasets. Habitat models were trained with salmonid presence and abundance records collected in the lower Snake River basin (downstream of Hells Canyon Dam), where anadromous fish can currently access, from 1993 to 2011. Model performance was tested with set-aside data comprised of randomly selected reaches and independent environmental DNA data. An index model was created in the middle Snake River basin for each species by combining results from the habitat models. Modeling covariates differed by species and life stage and included different combinations of August stream temperature, summer flow, channel slope, and quadratic terms for temperature and slope. The habitat models predicted high versus low Chinook salmon and steelhead probability and abundance with 66% to 85% accuracy depending on species and life stage. The index models predicted a total of 2,887 km of Chinook salmon habitat and 2,434 km of steelhead habitat in the blocked area. The three basins in the blocked area with the greatest amount of predicted habitat were the Powder River, South Fork Payette River, and North Fork Payette River for Chinook salmon, and the Powder River, South Fork Boise River, and South Fork Payette River for steelhead. The modeling approach presented here is complementary to other planning efforts for Chinook salmon and steelhead reintroduction in the blocked area of the Snake River basin, and similar approaches may be useful for reintroduction planning in other systems.

Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Season and antecedent conditions impact concentration-discharge relationships for dissolved organic carbon and alkalinity in southeast Alaskan watershed

Fluvial export of dissolved carbon plays an important role in watershed-scale biogeochemistry. Predicted changes in climate are expected to impact watershed hydrologic regimes, and in turn, the sources and export of dissolved carbon from watersheds. Here, we utilize high resolution measurements of discharge and dissolved carbon concentration to examine how concentration-discharge (CQ) relationships vary seasonally and during high flow events over the main runoff season (May–October) in a temperate forested watershed in Southeast Alaska. Concentration-discharge relationships for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and alkalinity demonstrated strong seasonal patterns, with more linear relationships in May and June versus other months. Changing power law model slopes ( b values; the exponent in a power law regression between runoff and carbon yields) indicated potentially shifting watershed sources (biogenic vs. geologic) and contrasting dominant flowpaths (shallow vs. deeper groundwater) for DOC and alkalinity over the sampling period. During the largest storm event of the study, DOC and alkalinity b values shifted from an overall pattern of transport (mean b = 1.58 values >1.0 indicate transport limitation) and source limitation (mean b = 0.48, values <1.0 indicate source limitation) to chemostatic (DOC, b = 0.99; alkalinity, b = 1.019). In June through August, patterns in hysteresis index suggest that CQ relationships were altered when storms followed in close succession to each other. Together, these findings indicate that seasonal and antecedent flow conditions play a role in dissolved carbon export from forested watersheds. Understanding these dynamics, particularly during winter months, will become increasingly important as changes to hydroclimate impact riverine carbon export.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Assessing the state of hydrologic science in the Upper Klamath Basin—A comprehensive review of data, tools, and models

Water demand in the Upper Klamath Basin (UKB) from various stakeholders and ecological needs often outstrips available supply, leading to persistent management challenges. This study reviews the state of hydrologic science within the UKB as of 2025—specifically, the tools, data, and models available for assessing five key components of the water system: (1) surface water; (2) precipitation; (3) evapotranspiration; (4) groundwater; and (5) water use. The UKB water supply is critical for Native American communities, regional agriculture, and federally listed fishes and faces challenges from competing needs, climate variability, and operational/regulatory requirements. We assess existing datasets, regional and national models, and historical studies to understand the available resources and identify gaps that may hinder integrated water assessments and management. Our findings indicate areas where improvements in data collection and model precision could improve the accuracy of water-availability forecasts and support water-management practices. This review can inform near-term forecasting, assist in optimizing water-resource data collection and management strategies, and support regional water-availability assessments of the basin.

Oregon↗
USGS2026

Post-fire soil hydrologic response and recovery in northern California (USA)

Background Wildfires abruptly change landscapes by altering soil properties and vegetation cover. These changes are thought to reduce soil infiltration capacity, making landscapes susceptible to runoff and erosion. However, post-fire soil response is complex and likely varies across locations and time. Aims Here, we aim to understand regional post-fire soil response and recovery by tracking changes across different northern California (USA) lithology and vegetation types. Methods We conducted repeat in situ soil infiltration tests for 3 years post-fire at 31 burned and 10 unburned sites spanning the 2021 Dixie, 2020 LNU Lightning Complex, 2020 Walbridge and 2020 Glass fires. Key results Our two main findings are: (1) burned chaparral soils have increased hydraulic conductivity compared with unburned sites, and (2) infiltration rates return to pre-fire conditions within 3 years across most lithologies and vegetations. Conclusions Recovery might be generalizable by vegetation and lithology but differ regionally, making it important to identify meaningful hydrologic response units (HRUs). Multi-year studies with paired burned and unburned measurements can constrain the recovery timeline and provide information missed by observations solely of burned soils. Implications Understanding where, and for how long, soil remains susceptible to runoff and erosion can help prioritize areas and time periods most in need of mitigation.

California↗
USGS2025

Salinas Valley integrated hydrologic and reservoir operations models, Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties, California

The area surrounding the Salinas Valley groundwater basin in Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties of California is a highly productive agricultural area, contributes significantly to the local economy, and provides a substantial portion of vegetables and other agricultural commodities to the Nation. This region of California provides about half of the Nation’s lettuce, celery, broccoli, and spinach each year. Thus, this agricultural area provides significant volumes of agricultural products not just for California but the entire United States. Changes in population and increased agricultural development, which includes a shift toward more water-intensive crops, and climate variability, have put increasing demand on both surface water and groundwater resources in the valley. This has resulted in water management challenges in the Salinas Valley that are predominantly related to distribution of water supply throughout the basin. Where and when the water is present in the surface and subsurface does not coincide with where and when the water is needed. To deal with the distribution issue, historically water has been used conjunctively in the valley. Conjunctive use is a water management strategy that coordinates surface water and groundwater use to maximize water availability. Groundwater is used throughout the Salinas Valley to meet water demands when surface water supplies are insufficient. Availability of surface water is constrained by climate. Precipitation and streamflow vary seasonally and year to year. Although there are two reservoirs in the Salinas Valley to capture and store water during wet periods, the only conveyance of reservoir water to coastal agricultural areas is the Salinas River. Increasing demand on groundwater and surface water resources throughout the Salinas Valley has resulted in undesirable effects of unsustainable water use, such as surface water depletion, groundwater level declines, storage depletion in the principal aquifers, and seawater intrusion. To address these escalating issues, local communities, water management agencies, and groundwater sustainability agencies are evaluating how to sustainably manage both their surface water and groundwater resources. To meet water demands and reduce undesirable effects of unsustainable water use, continued conjunctive management of surface water and groundwater would ideally incorporate strategies to deal with increases in demand and a variable climate. To evaluate the challenging water management issues in the Salinas Valley, the U.S. Geological Survey, Monterey County Water Resource Agency, and the Salinas Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency developed a comprehensive suite of models that represent the Salinas Valley Hydrogeologic system called the Salinas Valley System Model. The Salinas Valley Geologic Framework was developed to characterize the subsurface using various topographic and geologic data sources, including information on hydrogeologic units, their surfaces and extents, geologic structures, lithology, and elevations from borehole data and cross sections, as well as details on faults and existing models. The Salinas Valley Watershed Model simulates the entire Salinas River watershed. Monthly surface water inflows into the integrated hydrologic model domain were simulated using the Salinas Valley Watershed Model. The historical model uses historical climate data, water and land use data, and reservoir releases to simulate agricultural operations, including landscape water demands, diversions, and reclaimed wastewater. The operational model adds an embedded reservoir operations framework to the simulation of the historical model that allows specified operational rules to simulate reservoir releases and changes in reservoir storage. The operational model assumes current reservoir operations and constant land use, which differs from historical conditions. Thus, the operational model is a hypothetical baseline model that can be used by local water managers to evaluate and quantify potential benefits of water supply projects. Together, the geologic framework, watershed, historical, and operational models form a tool that can be used to simulate irrigated agriculture and associated reservoir operations of the integrated hydrologic system of the Salinas Valley.

EarthArXiv↗