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USGS2017

Improved accuracy in quantitative laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy using sub-models

Accurate quantitative analysis of diverse geologic materials is one of the primary challenges faced by the Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS)-based ChemCam instrument on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover. The SuperCam instrument on the Mars 2020 rover, as well as other LIBS instruments developed for geochemical analysis on Earth or other planets, will face the same challenge. Consequently, part of the ChemCam science team has focused on the development of improved multivariate analysis calibrations methods. Developing a single regression model capable of accurately determining the composition of very different target materials is difficult because the response of an element’s emission lines in LIBS spectra can vary with the concentration of other elements. We demonstrate a conceptually simple “sub-model” method for improving the accuracy of quantitative LIBS analysis of diverse target materials. The method is based on training several regression models on sets of targets with limited composition ranges and then “blending” these “sub-models” into a single final result. Tests of the sub-model method show improvement in test set root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) for almost all cases. The sub-model method, using partial least squares regression (PLS), is being used as part of the current ChemCam quantitative calibration, but the sub-model method is applicable to any multivariate regression method and may yield similar improvements.

Spectrochimica Acta Part B: Atomic Spectroscopy↗

USGS2000

Geologic studies in Alaska by the U.S. Geological Survey, 1997

The eight papers that follow continue the series of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports on investigations in the geologic sciences in Alaska. The series presents new and sometimes preliminary findings that are of interest to earth scientists in academia, government, and industry; to land and resource managers; and to the general public. Reports presented in Geologic Studies in Alaska cover a broad spectrum of topics from all parts of the State (fig. 1), which serves to emphasize the diversity of USGS efforts to meet the Nation's needs for earth-science information in Alaska. The papers in this volume are organized under the topics Resources, Geologic Framework, and Environment and Climate. Such an organization is intended to reflect the scope and objectives of USGS programs currently active in Alaska. Resource papers include one that presents detailed observations from a Mississippian Zn-Pb-Cu-Ag occurrence in the Brooks Range (Werdon). Mineralogic, chemical, and isotopic data provide the basis for a proposed relationship between this vein-breccia deposit and the shale-hosted massive sulfide deposit type, which includes the active Red Dog mine in the western Brooks Range. Also included under the topic of Resources is a paper that presents geochemical and isotopic data from the Greens Creek and Woewodski Island volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits in southeastern Alaska (Newberry and Brew). The depositional environment and sedimentological setting of Tertiary coal beds in the Matanuska and Susitna Valleys is the focus of a third paper under the topic of Resources (Flores and others). Geologic Framework studies provide background information that is the scientific basis for present and future studies of the environment, mineral and energy resources, paleoclimate, and hazards in Alaska. One paper presents the results of sedimentologic and paleontologic comparisons of lower Paleozoic, deep-water-facies rock units in central Alaska (Dumoulin and others). The authors show which of these units are likely to correlate with one another, suggest likely source regions, and provide a structural restoration of units that have been fragmented by large fault motions. A second framework paper provides a map, rock descriptions, and chemical compositions of volcanic rocks in a newly recognized, geologically young volcanic center in the Aleutian volcanic arc (Hildreth and others). A third paper presents an interesting summary of gravity changes that occurred in south-central Alaska during the great earthquake of 1964 and for the following 25 years (Barnes). Gravity changes correlate with land-elevation changes in some cases, but not in others, which means that different processes are responsible for the gravity changes.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Delineation of areas having elevated electrical conductivity, orientation and characterization of bedrock fractures, and occurrence of groundwater discharge to surface water at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Barite Hill/Nevada Goldfields Superfund site near McCormick, South Carolina

During October 2012 through March 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 4, Superfund Section, conducted borehole geophysical logging, surface geophysical surveys, and water-quality profiling in selected wells and areas to characterize or delineate the extent of elevated subsurface electrical conductivity at the EPA Barite Hill/Nevada Goldfields Superfund site near McCormick, South Carolina. Elevated electrical conductivity measured at the site may be related to native rock materials, waste rock disposal areas used in past operations, and (or) groundwater having elevated dissolved solids (primarily metals and major ions) related to waste migration. Five shallow screened wells and four open-borehole bedrock wells were logged by using a suite of borehole tools, and downhole water-quality profiles were recorded in two additional wells. Well depths ranged from about 26 to 300 feet below land surface. Surface geophysical surveys based on frequency-domain electromagnetic and distributed temperature sensing (DTS) techniques were used to identify areas of elevated electrical conductivity (Earth materials and groundwater) and potential high dissolved solids in groundwater and surface water on land and in areas along the northern unnamed tributary at the site. Results from the electromagnetic-induction logging of four selected wells near the Main Pit and one well located about 800 feet southeast of the Main Pit lake indicate that elevated electrical conductivity extends to a depth of about 110 feet below land surface. Groundwater-quality properties recorded in eight selected wells were highly variable, suggesting a broad spectrum of geochemical conditions and contaminant concentrations within the groundwater system. Ranges of field water-quality properties recorded from water-profiling of groundwater in all wells logged were as follows: pH, 3.1 to 9.2; specific conductance, 48 to 5,300 microsiemens per centimeter; dissolved oxygen, 0.2 to 4.4 milligrams per liter; and water temperature, 17.0 to 18.0 degrees Celsius. The highest specific conductance and lowest pH measurements were made in boreholes located between the Main Pit lake and the northern unnamed tributary. Conceptually, these wells may intercept elevated dissolved solids in groundwater leaking from the Main Pit lake along a flow path that discharges into the unnamed tributary to the north. Results from surface geophysical electromagnetic and fiber-optics surveys confirm areas of focused discharge of groundwater near the Main Pit lake along the northern unnamed tributary. The frequency-domain surface electromagnetic surveys also identified an area with higher levels of elevated electrical conductivity located northwest of the former Rainsford Pit area. Bedrock properties were characterized from borehole geophysical logs collected from three open-borehole bedrock wells. The mean strike azimuth of the borehole foliation data measured in bedrock well IR-1 was 221° (N. 41° E.), and the mean dip angle was 78° to the northwest. Dominant strike azimuth orientations of primary fractures measured in three boreholes were from 210° to 250° (N. 30° E. to N. 70° E.) with a mean dip of 68° northwest. Transmissivity estimates interpreted from the heat-pulse flowmeter data from bedrock well IR-1 were about 69 feet squared per day, and the radius of influence was estimated at about 640 feet.

South Carolina↗

USGS1991

Approaches to the conservation of coastal wetlands in the Western Hemisphere

Coastal wetlands rank among the most productive and ecologically valuable natural ecosystems on Earth. Unfortunately, they are also some of the most disturbed. Because they are productive and can serve as transportation arteries, coastal wetlands have long attracted human settlement. More than half of the U.S. population currently lives within 80 km of its coasts, and one estimate places 70% of all humanity in the coastal zone. Human impacts to coastal wetlands include physical alteration of hydrological processes; the introduction of toxic materials, nutrients, heat, and exotic species; and the unsustainable harvest of native species. Between 1950 and 1970, coastal wetland losses in the U.S. averaged 8 100 ha/year. In Central and South America, development pressures along the coastal zone rank among the most serious natural resource problems in the region..... Here, we (1) briefly describe coastal wetland avifauna, (2) discuss the threat of global warming on coastal wetlands, (3) use several Western Hemisphere wetlands as site-specific examples of development pressures facing these habitats, and (4) provide synopses of nongovernmental and governmental approaches to wetland conservation. Overall, we provide a socio-economic context for conservation of coastal wetlands in the Western Hemisphere. We suggest that efforts aimed at conserving sites of particular importance for their biological diversity should be pursued within a framework of wise use that addresses the broader issues of human population growth and economic development.

The Wilson Bulletin↗

USGS2019

Prediction of ice‐free conditions for a perennially ice‐covered Antarctic lake

Although perennially ice‐covered Antarctic lakes have experienced variable ice thicknesses over the past several decades, future ice thickness trends and associated aquatic biological responses under projected global warming remain unknown. Heat stored in the water column in chemically stratified Antarctic lakes that have middepth temperature maxima can significantly influence the ice thickness trends via upward heat flux to the ice/water interface. We modeled the ice thickness of the west lobe of Lake Bonney, Antarctica, based on possible future climate scenarios utilizing a 1D thermodynamic model that accounts for surface radiative fluxes as well as the heat flux associated with the temperature evolution of the water column. Model results predict that the ice cover of Lake Bonney will shift from perennial to seasonal within one to four decades, a change that will drastically influence ecosystem processes within the lake.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2016

Volcano-tectonic earthquakes: A new tool for estimating intrusive volumes and forecasting eruptions

We present data on 136 high-frequency earthquakes and swarms, termed volcano-tectonic (VT) seismicity, which preceded 111 eruptions at 83 volcanoes, plus data on VT swarms that preceded intrusions at 21 other volcanoes. We find that VT seismicity is usually the earliest reported seismic precursor for eruptions at volcanoes that have been dormant for decades or more, and precedes eruptions of all magma types from basaltic to rhyolitic and all explosivities from VEI 0 to ultraplinian VEI 6 at such previously long-dormant volcanoes. Because large eruptions occur most commonly during resumption of activity at long-dormant volcanoes, VT seismicity is an important precursor for the Earth's most dangerous eruptions. VT seismicity precedes all explosive eruptions of VEI ≥ 5 and most if not all VEI 4 eruptions in our data set. Surprisingly we find that the VT seismicity originates at distal locations on tectonic fault structures at distances of one or two to tens of kilometers laterally from the site of the eventual eruption, and rarely if ever starts beneath the eruption site itself. The distal VT swarms generally occur at depths almost equal to the horizontal distance of the swarm from the summit out to about 15 km distance, beyond which hypocenter depths level out. We summarize several important characteristics of this distal VT seismicity including: swarm-like nature, onset days to years prior to the beginning of magmatic eruptions, peaking of activity at the time of the initial eruption whether phreatic or magmatic, and large non-double couple component to focal mechanisms. Most importantly we show that the intruded magma volume can be simply estimated from the cumulative seismic moment of the VT seismicity from: Log10 V = 0.77 Log ΣMoment − 5.32, with volume, V, in cubic meters and seismic moment in Newton meters. Because the cumulative seismic moment can be approximated from the size of just the few largest events, and is quite insensitive to precise locations, the intruded magma volume can be quickly and easily estimated with few short-period seismic stations. Notable cases in which distal VT events preceded eruptions at long-dormant volcanoes include: Nevado del Ruiz (1984–1985), Pinatubo (1991), Unzen (1989–1995), Soufriere Hills (1995), Shishaldin (1989–1999), Tacana' (1985–1986), Pacaya (1980–1984), Rabaul (1994), and Cotopaxi (2001). Additional cases are recognized at frequently active volcanoes including Popocateptl (2001–2003) and Mauna Loa (1984). We present four case studies (Pinatubo, Soufriere Hills, Unzen, and Tacana') in which we demonstrate the above mentioned VT characteristics prior to eruptions. Using regional data recorded by NEIC, we recognized in near-real time that a huge distal VT swarm was occurring, deduced that a proportionately huge magmatic intrusion was taking place beneath the long dormant Sulu Range, New Britain Island, Papua New Guinea, that it was likely to lead to eruptive activity, and warned Rabaul Volcano Observatory days before a phreatic eruption occurred. This confirms the value of this technique for eruption forecasting. We also present a counter-example where we deduced that a VT swarm at Volcan Cosiguina, Nicaragua, indicated a small intrusion, insufficient to reach the surface and erupt. Finally, we discuss limitations of the method and propose a mechanism by which this distal VT seismicity is triggered by magmatic intrusion.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2016

Wetlands: Tidal

Tidal wetlands are some of the most dynamic areas of the Earth and are found at the interface between the land and sea. Salinity, regular tidal flooding, and infrequent catastrophic flooding due to storm events result in complex interactions among biotic and abiotic factors. The complexity of these interactions, along with the uncertainty of where one draws the line between tidal and nontidal, makes characterizing tidal wetlands a difficult task. The three primary types of tidal wetlands are tidal marshes, mangroves, and freshwater forested wetlands. Tidal marshes are dominated by herbaceous plants and are generally found at middle to high latitudes of both hemispheres. Mangrove forests dominate tropical coastlines around the world while tidal freshwater forests are global in distribution. All three wetland types are highly productive ecosystems, supporting abundant and diverse faunal communities. Unfortunately, these wetlands are subject to alteration and loss from both natural and anthropogenic causes.

Book chapter↗

USGS2012

Casual instrument corrections for short-period and broadband seismometers

Of all the filters applied to recordings of seismic waves, which include source, path, and site effects, the one we know most precisely is the instrument filter. Therefore, it behooves seismologists to accurately remove the effect of the instrument from raw seismograms. Applying instrument corrections allows analysis of the seismogram in terms of physical units (e.g., displacement or particle velocity of the Earth’s surface) instead of the output of the instrument (e.g., digital counts). The instrument correction can be considered the most fundamental processing step in seismology since it relates the raw data to an observable quantity of interest to seismologists. Complicating matters is the fact that, in practice, the term “instrument correction” refers to more than simply the seismometer. The instrument correction compensates for the complete recording system including the seismometer, telemetry, digitizer, and any anti‐alias filters. Knowledge of all these components is necessary to perform an accurate instrument correction. The subject of instrument corrections has been covered extensively in the literature (Seidl, 1980; Scherbaum, 1996). However, the prospect of applying instrument corrections still evokes angst among many seismologists—the authors of this paper included. There may be several reasons for this. For instance, the seminal paper by Seidl (1980) exists in a journal that is not currently available in electronic format and cannot be accessed online. Also, a standard method for applying instrument corrections involves the programs TRANSFER and EVALRESP in the Seismic Analysis Code (SAC) package (Goldstein et al. , 2003). The exact mathematical methods implemented in these codes are not thoroughly described in the documentation accompanying SAC.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2024

Getting to the surface of the problem: A dynamic rupture benchmark for shallowly dipping faults near Earth’s surface

The Statewide California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Dynamic Rupture Group workshop “Getting to the Surface of the Problem: A Dynamic Rupture Benchmark for Shallowly-Dipping Faults Near Earth’s Surface” was convened virtually, in an online meeting on November 4, 2024. 52 people participated, including two who sent pre-recorded lightning talks earlier, but were unable to join us that day due to the international time-zone difference. One-half of our participants were students or postdocs, and the group included scientists from 11 countries (USA, Canada, China, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Iceland, Japan, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland).

Final Report↗

USGS2005

The life cycle of a mineral deposit: a teacher's guide for hands-on mineral education activities

This teacher's guide defines what a mineral deposit is and how a mineral deposit is identified and measured, how the mineral resources are extracted, and how the mining site is reclaimed; how minerals and mineral resources are processed; and how we use mineral resources in our every day lives. Included are 10 activitybased learning exercises that educate students on basic geologic concepts; the processes of finding, identifying, and extracting the resources from a mineral deposit; and the uses of minerals. The guide is intended for K through 12 Earth science teachers and students and is designed to meet the National Science Content Standards as defined by the National Research Council (1996). To assist in the understanding of some of the geology and mineral terms, see the Glossary (appendix 1) and Minerals and Their Uses (appendix 2). The process of finding or exploring for a mineral deposit, extracting or mining the resource, recovering the resource, also known as beneficiation, and reclaiming the land mined can be described as the “life cycle” of a mineral deposit. The complete process is time consuming and expensive, requiring the use of modern technology and equipment, and may take many years to complete. Sometimes one entity or company completes the entire process from discovery to reclamation, but often it requires multiple groups with specialized experience working together. Mineral deposits are the source of many important commodities, such as copper and gold, used by our society, but it is important to realize that mineral deposits are a nonrenewable resource. Once mined, they are exhausted, and another source must be found. New mineral deposits are being continuously created by the Earth but may take millions of years to form. Mineral deposits differ from renewable resources, such as agricultural and timber products, which may be replenished within a few months to several years.

General Information Product↗

USGS2013

The stability of sulfate and hydrated sulfate minerals near ambient conditions and their significance in environmental and planetary sciences

Sulfate and hydrated sulfate minerals are abundant and ubiquitous on the surface of the Earth and also on other planets and their satellites. The humidity-buffer technique has been applied to study the stability of some of these minerals at 0.1 MPa in terms of temperature-relative humidity space on the basis of hydration-dehydration reversal experiments. Updated phase relations in the binary system MgSO 4 -H 2 O are presented, as an example, to show how reliable thermodynamic data for these minerals could be obtained based on these experimental results and thermodynamic principles. This approach has been applied to sulfate and hydrated sulfate minerals of other metals, including Fe (both ferrous and ferric), Zn, Ni, Co, Cd, and Cu. Metal-sulfate salts play important roles in the cycling of metals and sulfate in terrestrial systems, and the number of phases extends well beyond the simple sulfate salts that have thus far been investigated experimentally. The oxidation of sulfide minerals, particularly pyrite, is a common process that initiates the formation of efflorescent metal-sulfate minerals. Also, the overall abundance of iron-bearing sulfate salts in nature reflects the fact that the weathering of pyrite or pyrrhotite is the ultimate source for many of these phases. Many aspects of their environmental significance are reviewed, particularly in acute effects to aquatic ecosystems related to the dissolution of sulfate salts during rain storms or snow-melt events. Hydrous Mg, Ca, and Fe sulfates were identified on Mars, with wide distribution and very large quantities at many locations, on the basis of spectroscopic observations from orbital remote sensing and surface explorations by rovers. However, many of these findings do not reveal the detailed information on the degree of hydration that is essential for rigorous interpretation of the hydrologic history of Mars. Laboratory experiments on stability fields, reactions pathways, and reaction rates of hydrous sulfates likely to be found on Mars enhance our understanding of the degrees of hydration of various sulfates that should currently exist on Mars at various seasons and locations and during various atmospheric pressure and obliquity periods. Two sets of systematic experiments were described; one on hydrous Mg sulfates and the other on hydrous Fe 3+ sulfates. Also, their implications to Mars sulfates mineralogy were discussed.

Journal of Asian Earth Sciences↗

USGS1951

Geologic history of sea water: An attempt to state the problem

Paleontology and biochemistry together may yield fairly definite information, eventually, about the paleochemistry of sea water and atmosphere. Several less conclusive lines of evidence now available suggest that the composition of both sea water and atmosphere may have varied somewhat during the past; but the geologic record indicates that these variations have probably been within relatively narrow limits. A primary problem is how conditions could have remained so nearly constant for so long. It is clear, even from inadequate data on the quantities and compositions of ancient sediments, that the more volatile materials—H 2 O, CO 2 , Cl, N, and S— are much too abundant in the present atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere and in ancient sediments to be explained, like the commoner rock-forming oxides, as the products of rock weathering alone. If the earth were once entirely gaseous or molten, these “excess” volatiles may be residual from a primitive atmosphere. But if so, certain corollaries should follow about the quantity of water dissolved in the molten earth and the expected chemical effects of a highly acid, primitive ocean. These corollaries appear to be contradicted by the geologic record, and doubt is therefore cast on this hypothesis of a dense primitive atmosphere. It seems more probable that only a small fraction of the total “excess” volatiles was ever present at one time in the early atmosphere and ocean. Carbon plays a significant part in the chemistry of sea water and in the realm of living matter. The amount now buried as carbonates and organic carbon in sedimentary rocks is about 600 times as great as that in today's atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere. If only 1/100 of this buried carbon were suddenly added to the present atmosphere and ocean, many species of marine organisms would probably be exterminated. Furthermore, unless CO 2 is being added continuously to the atmosphere-ocean system from some source other than rock weathering, the present rate of its subtraction by sedimentation would, in only a few million years, cause brucite to take the place of calcite as a common marine sediment. Apparently, the geologic record shows no evidence of such simultaneous extinctions of many species nor such deposits of brucite. Evidently the amount of CO 2 in the atmosphere and ocean has remained relatively constant throughout much of the geologic past. This calls for some source of gradual and continuous supply, over and above that from rock weathering and from the metamorphism of older sedimentary rocks. A clue to this source is afforded by the relative amounts of the different “excess” volatiles. These are similar to the relative amounts of the same materials in gases escaping from volcanoes, fumaroles, and hot springs and in gases occluded in igneous rocks. Conceivably, therefore, the hydrosphere and atmosphere may have come almost entirely from such plutonic gases. During the crystallization of magmas, volatiles such as H 2 O and CO 2 accumulate in the remaining melt and are largely expelled as part of the final fractions. Volcanic eruptions and lava flows have brought volatiles to the earth's surface throughout the geologic past; but intrusive rocks are probably a much more adequate source of the constituents of the atmosphere and hydrosphere. Judged by the thermal springs of the United States, hot springs (carrying only 1 per cent or less of juvenile matter) may be the principal channels by which the “excess” volatiles have escaped from cooling magmas below. This mechanism fails to account for a continuous supply of volatiles unless it also provides for a continuous generation of new, volatile-rich magmas. Possibly such local magmas form by a continuous process of selective fusion of subcrustal rocks, to a depth of several hundred kilometers below the more mobile areas of the crust. This would imply that the volume of the ocean has grown with time. On this point, geologic evidence permits differences of interpretation; the record admittedly does not prove, but it seems consistent with, an increasing growth of the continental masses and a progressive sinking of oceanic basins. Perhaps something like the following mechanism could account for a continuous escape of volatiles to the earth's surface and a relatively uniform composition of sea water through much of geologic time: (1) selective fusion of lower-melting fractions from deep-seated, nearly anhydrous rocks beneath the unstable continental margins and geosynclines; (2) rise of these selected fractions (as granitic and hydrous magmas) and their slow crystallization nearer the surface; (3) essentially continuous isostatic readjustment between the differentiating continental masses and adjacent ocean basins; and (4) renewed erosion and sedimentation, with resulting instability of continental margins and mountainous areas and a new round of selective fusion below.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS1995

A mass proportion method for calculating melting reactions and application to melting of model upper mantle lherzolite

We present a method for calculating quantitative melting reactions in systems with multiple solid solutions that accounts for changes in the mass proportions of phases between two points at different temperatures along a melting curve. This method can be applied to any data set that defines the phase proportions along a melting curve. The method yields the net change in mass proportion of all phases for the chosen melting interval, and gives an average reaction for the melting path. Instantaneous melting reactions can be approximated closely by choosing sufficiently small melting intervals. As an application of the method, reactions for melting of model upper mantle peridotite are calculated using data from the system CaO-MgO-Al 2 O 3 -SiO 2 -Na 2 O (CMASN) over the pressure interval 0.7 – 3.5 GPa. Throughout almost this entire pressure range, melting of model lherzolite involves the crystallization of one or more solid phases, and is analogous to melting at a peritectic invariant point. In addition, we show that melting reactions for small melting intervals (< 5%) along the solidus of mantle peridotite are significantly different from those calculated for large melting intervals. For large melting intervals (> 10%), reaction stoichiometries calculated in CMASN are usually in good agreement with those available for melting of natural peridotite. The coefficients of melting reactions calculated from this method can be used in equations that describe the behavior of trace elements during melting. We compare results from near-fractional melting models using (1) melting reactions and rock modes from CMASN, and (2) constant reactions representative of those used in the literature. In modeling trace element abundances in melt, significant differences arise for some elements at low degrees of melting (< 10%). In modeling element abundances in the residue, differences increase with increase in degree of melting. Reactions calculated along the model lherzolite solidus in CMASN are the only ones available at present for small degrees of melting so we recommend them for accurate trace element modeling of natural lherzolite.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2008

Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on a simplified viscoelastic cycle model of fault interactions

We construct a viscoelastic cycle model of plate boundary deformation that includes the effect of time-dependent interseismic strain accumulation, coseismic strain release, and viscoelastic relaxation of the substrate beneath the seismogenic crust. For a given fault system, time-averaged stress changes at any point (not on a fault) are constrained to zero; that is, kinematic consistency is enforced for the fault system. The dates of last rupture, mean recurrence times, and the slip distributions of the (assumed) repeating ruptures are key inputs into the viscoelastic cycle model. This simple formulation allows construction of stress evolution at all points in the plate boundary zone for purposes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Stress evolution is combined with a Coulomb failure stress threshold at representative points on the fault segments to estimate the times of their respective future ruptures. In our PSHA we consider uncertainties in a four-dimensional parameter space: the rupture peridocities, slip distributions, time of last earthquake (for prehistoric ruptures) and Coulomb failure stress thresholds. We apply this methodology to the San Francisco Bay region using a recently determined fault chronology of area faults. Assuming single-segment rupture scenarios, we find that fature rupture probabilities of area faults in the coming decades are the highest for the southern Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and northern Calaveras faults. This conclusion is qualitatively similar to that of Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, but the probabilities derived here are significantly higher. Given that fault rupture probabilities are highly model-dependent, no single model should be used to assess to time-dependent rupture probabilities. We suggest that several models, including the present one, be used in a comprehensive PSHA methodology, as was done by Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2024

How to select an objective function using information theory

In machine learning or scientific computing, model performance is measured with an objective function. But why choose one objective over another? According to the information-theoretic paradigm, the “best” objective function is whichever minimizes information loss. To evaluate different objectives, transform them into likelihoods. The ratios of these likelihoods represent how strongly we should prefer one objective versus another, and the log of that ratio represents the relative information loss (or gain) from one objective to another. In plain terms, minimizing information loss is equivalent to minimizing uncertainty, as well as maximizing probability and general utility. We argue that this paradigm is well-suited to models that have many uses and no definite utility like the complex Earth system models used to understand the effects of climate change. Furthermore, the benefits of “maximizing information and general utility” extend beyond model accuracy to other important considerations including how efficiently the model calibrates, how well it generalizes, and how well it compresses data.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS1998

Observations on basaltic lava streams in tubes from Kilauea Volcano, island of Hawai'i

From 1986 to 1997, the Pu'u 'O'o-Kupaianaha eruption of Kilauea produced a vast pahoehoe flow field fed by lava tubes that extended 10–12 km from vents on the volcano's east rift zone to the ocean. Within a kilometer of the vent, tubes were as much as 20 m high and 10–25 m wide. On steep slopes (4–10°) a little farther away from the vent, some tubes formed by roofing over of lava channels. Lava streams were typically 1–2 m deep flowing within a tube that here was typically 5 m high and 3 m wide. On the coastal plain (<1°), tubes within inflated sheet flows were completely filled, typically 1–2 m high, and several tens of meters wide. Tubes develop as a flow's crust grows on the top, bottom, and sides of the tubes, restricting the size of the fluid core. The tubes start out with nearly elliptical cross-sectional shapes, many times wider than high. Broad, flat sheet flows evolve into elongate tumuli with an axial crack as the flanks of the original flow were progressively buried by breakouts. Temperature measurements and the presence of stalactites in active tubes confirmed that the tube walls were above the solidus and subject to melting. Sometimes, the tubes began downcutting. Progressive downcutting was frequently observed through skylights; a rate of 10 cm/d was measured at one skylight for nearly 2 months.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2010

Initial Results from a Study of Climatic Changes and the Effect on Wild Sheep Habitat in Selected Study Areas of Alaska

Climate change theorists have projected striking changes in local weather on earth due to increases in temperature. These predicted changes may cause melting glaciers and ice caps, rising sea levels, increasing desertification and other environmental changes which seem likely to affect presumed indicator species as harbingers of more significant changes. Wild sheep, even though they are one of the more successful mammalian taxa since Pleistocene times, exhibit a suite of adaptations to glacier driven environments which may be presumed to render them sensitive to environmental changes. The authors began investigation with these assumptions by comparing changes, as determined by satellite imagery, in glacier extent in our study areas in Denali National Park, Alaska, during the last 30 years. Our findings showed the extent of glacial retreat in Alaska during this time period was approximately 40-50 percent as measured by ablation zone and retreat of terminal moraines. During the first half of this 30-year period, Dall sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) populations were stable at historically recorded highs. In the early to mid-1990s, Dall sheep populations in Alaska declined from an historical estimated high of 75,000 sheep to the presently estimated 40-50,000. The declines seemed to be weather related, on the basis of the presumption that lamb survival rates are primarily weather-mediated in Alaska. Changes in local weather appear, at this point, to be correlated with oscillation in the Pacific Current in the Northern Pacific ocean. Of course, changes in local weather affect forage abundance and quality seasonally. In investigating a possible linkage of weather to seasonal forage abundance and quality, we also investigated changes in snow and ice extent and distribution, as well as increased water runoff associated with permafrost and depleted glaciers. Databases were assembled from a wide variety of remotely sensed satellite data, ground-based observations, and historical data bases relating to Dall sheep habitats in selected study areas. Alaska's sheep habitats are typified by long, narrow bands of mountainous uplifts generally arrayed west-to-east, and perpendicular to prevailing south-to-north weather-front movements. Classic Dall sheep habitat occurs on snow-shadowed slopes within these narrow mountainous habitats. On the basis of these data, we offer an explanatory hypothesis relating Dall sheep welfare to weather and climate-influenced nutrition and a monitoring scheme, which should produce data sufficient to test the robustness of this hypothesis. If correlated with population changes, the methods used in our comparative observations may provide long-term monitoring tools for wildlife managers and be applicable in other widely-dispersed wild sheep habitats. If no significant correlations emerge from our modeling exercises, the notion that wild sheep are a sufficiently sensitive species to be seen as an indicator species will have to be reexamined.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Geologic and geochemical results from boreholes drilled in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, 2007 and 2008

Between 2007 and 2008, seven Earthscope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) boreholes ranging in depth from about 200 to 800 feet deep were drilled in and adjacent to the Yellowstone caldera in Yellowstone National Park, for the purpose of installing volcano monitoring instrumentation. Five of the seven boreholes were equipped with strainmeters, downhole seismometers, and tiltmeters. Data collected during drilling included field observations of drill cuttings, stratigraphy within the boreholes, water temperature, and water and drill cuttings samples from selected depths. Six of the seven boreholes encountered rhyolite lavas and tuffs. The rhyolite lavas compose the Canyon flow, the Gardner River flow, the Gibbon River flow, the Hayden Valley flow, the Nez Perce Creek flow, and the West Thumb flow. Boreholes also penetrated a vertical sequence through the Lava Creek Tuff and the Tuff of Bluff Point. In addition, one borehole drilled through a Swan Lake Flat Basalt sequence and terminated in a rhyolite lava flow. After drilling the seven PBO boreholes, cuttings were examined and selected for preparation of grain mounts, thin sections, and geochemical analysis. Major ions and trace elements (including rare earth elements) of selected cuttings were determined by x-ray fluorescence (XRF) and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS); the ICP-MS provided more precise trace-element analysis than XRF. A preliminary interpretation of the results of geochemical analyses generally shows a correlation between borehole cuttings and previously mapped geology. The geochemical data and borehole stratigraphy presented in this report provide a foundation for future petrologic, geochemical, and geophysical studies.

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