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USGS2023

An integral projection model for gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) utilizing density-dependent age-0 survival

Gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) is a common freshwater fish species found throughout the central and eastern portions of North America. Within these regions, gizzard shad play several critical roles in the freshwater community such as serving as prey for other fish species and translocating nutrients from substrates into the water column. Because of this, it is important to understand gizzard shad population dynamics. Here, we introduce an integral projection model (IPM) for gizzard shad that incorporates empirical information from sources including Long Term Resource Monitoring (LTRM) upper Mississippi River restoration data. IPMs are a generalization of stage-based, matrix population models that have been used to describe a wide range of organisms, and as such are a natural choice for gizzard shad because many aspects of their life cycle have been studied. We tested model outputs against empirical patterns reported for gizzard shad from a different location along the Illinois River (La Grange Reach). Results of our work indicate that our model could serve as an important tool for predicting patterns within gizzard shad populations.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2014

Methane hydrates in nature - Current knowledge and challenges

Recognizing the importance of methane hydrate research and the need for a coordinated effort, the United States Congress enacted the Methane Hydrate Research and Development Act of 2000. At the same time, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in Japan launched a research program to develop plans for a methane hydrate exploratory drilling project in the Nankai Trough. India, China, the Republic of Korea, and other nations also have established large methane hydrate research and development programs. Government-funded scientific research drilling expeditions and production test studies have provided a wealth of information on the occurrence of methane hydrates in nature. Numerous studies have shown that the amount of gas stored as methane hydrates in the world may exceed the volume of known organic carbon sources. However, methane hydrates represent both a scientific and technical challenge, and much remains to be learned about their characteristics and occurrence in nature. Methane hydrate research in recent years has mostly focused on: (1) documenting the geologic parameters that control the occurrence and stability of methane hydrates in nature, (2) assessing the volume of natural gas stored within various methane hydrate accumulations, (3) analyzing the production response and characteristics of methane hydrates, (4) identifying and predicting natural and induced environmental and climate impacts of natural methane hydrates, (5) analyzing the methane hydrate role as a geohazard, (6) establishing the means to detect and characterize methane hydrate accumulations using geologic and geophysical data, and (7) establishing the thermodynamic phase equilibrium properties of methane hydrates as a function of temperature, pressure, and gas composition. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Consortium for Ocean Leadership (COL) combined their efforts in 2012 to assess the contributions that scientific drilling has made and could continue to make to advance our understanding of methane hydrates in nature. COL assembled a Methane Hydrate Project Science Team with members from academia, industry, and government. This Science Team worked with COL and DOE to develop and host the Methane Hydrate Community Workshop, which surveyed a substantial cross section of the methane hydrate research community for input on the most important research developments in our understanding of methane hydrates in nature and their potential role as an energy resource, a geohazard, and/or as an agent of global climate change. Our understanding of how methane hydrates occur in nature is still growing and evolving, and it is known with certainty that field, laboratory, and modeling studies have contributed greatly to our understanding of hydrates in nature and will continue to be a critical source of the information needed to advance our understanding of methane hydrates.

Journal of Chemical and Engineering Data↗

USGS2017

Visitor spending effects: assessing and showcasing America's investment in national parks

This paper provides an overview of the evolution, future, and global applicability of the U.S. National Park Service's (NPS) visitor spending effects framework and discusses the methods used to effectively communicate the economic return on investment in America's national parks. The 417 parks represent many of America's most iconic destinations: in 2016, they received a record 331 million visits. Competing federal budgetary demands necessitate that, in addition to meeting their mission to preserve unimpaired natural and cultural resources for the enjoyment of the people, parks also assess and showcase their contributions to the economic vitality of their regions and the nation. Key approaches explained include the original Money Generation Model (MGM) from 1990, MGM2 used from 2001, and the visitor spending effects model which replaced MGM2 in 2012. Detailed discussion explains the NPS's visitor use statistics system, the formal program for collecting, compiling, and reporting visitor use data. The NPS is now establishing a formal socioeconomic monitoring (SEM) program to provide a standard visitor survey instrument and a long-term, systematic sampling design for in-park visitor surveys. The pilot SEM survey is discussed, along with the need for international standardization of research methods.

Journal of Sustainable Tourism↗

USGS2009

SPARROW MODELING - Enhancing Understanding of the Nation's Water Quality

The information provided here is intended to assist water-resources managers with interpretation of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) SPARROW model and its products. SPARROW models can be used to explain spatial patterns in monitored stream-water quality in relation to human activities and natural processes as defined by detailed geospatial information. Previous SPARROW applications have identified the sources and transport of nutrients in the Mississippi River basin, Chesapeake Bay watershed, and other major drainages of the United States. New SPARROW models with improved accuracy and interpretability are now being developed by the USGS National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program for six major regions of the conterminous United States. These new SPARROW models are based on updated geospatial data and stream-monitoring records from local, State, and other federal agencies.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2015

Future wave and wind projections for United States and United-States-affiliated Pacific Islands

Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Spatially and temporally varying waves dominate coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of the islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through the year 2100 using wind parameter outputs from four atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5, for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Wind fields from the global climate models were used to drive a global WAVEWATCH-III wave model and generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific for the years 1976–2005 (historical), 2026–2045 (mid-century projection), and 2085–2100 (end-of-century projection). Although the results show some spatial heterogeneity, overall the December-February extreme significant wave heights, defined as the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave height time-series data modeled within a specific period, increase from present to mid-century and then decrease toward the end of the century; June-August extreme wave heights increase throughout the century within the Central region of the study area; and September-November wave heights decrease strongly throughout the 21st century, displaying the largest and most widespread decreases of any season. Peak wave periods increase east of the International Date Line during the December-February and June-August seasons under RCP4.5. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, wave periods decrease west of the International Date Line during December-February but increase in the eastern half of the study area. Otherwise, wave periods decrease throughout the study area during other seasons. Extreme wave directions in equatorial Micronesia during June-August undergo an approximate 30° clockwise rotation from primarily west to northwest. September-November RCP4.5 extreme mean wave directions rotate counterclockwise by approximately 30 to 45° in equatorial Micronesia; September-November RCP8.5 extreme mean wave directions within equatorial Micronesia rotate clockwise by approximately 20 to 30°. Extreme wind speeds decreased within both scenarios, with the largest decreases occurring in the September-November season. Extreme wind directions under RCP4.5 rotated clockwise by more than 60° in equatorial Micronesia during the September-November season and by approximately 30° during June-August. RCP8.5 extreme wind directions rotated counterclockwise during September-November within the same region by 30 to 50° and clockwise by 30 to 40° at one island. The spatial patterns and trends are similar between the two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with the magnitude and extent of the trends generally greater for the higher (RCP8.5) scenario.

Micronesia, Pacific Ocean↗

USGS1996

A spatial decision support system for coastal management: A research project at the National Wetlands Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey

Environmental resource managers and scientists are being challenged in developing strategies to manage complex coastal systems. From an ecological perspective, there are myriad dynamic, interrelated natural and human-induced processes that affect the health and stability of coastal systems. However, the problems associated with managing coastal resources usually transcend purely ecological factors when one considers societal needs and expectations from these resources. For example, at least nine Federal, State, and local government agencies, often with widely varying responsibilities or interests, are charged with managing environmental resources and/or regulating human activities within Louisiana's coastal systems; that number may be higher in other coastal areas of the United States. In many coastal systems, a declining resource base and environmental quality combined with an expanding human population exert increased demands on those systems. This results in a number of conflicting resource management and environmental impact assessment issues. The issues include determining the most cost-effective strategies for restoring degraded natural systems, local and regional planning for future urban and commercial development in or near sensitive coastal habitats, predicting impacts from acute and chronic pollutant discharges (oil spills, fecal coliform contamination) as well as from natural hazard damages to coastal systems, and optimal partitioning of coastal resources among competing user groups (e.g., commercial and recreational fishermen). Solving such complex environmental resource management problems often involves a multidisciplinary approach, requires computerized analytical modeling abilities to manipulate large quantities of spatial-temporal data according to a defined set of objectives or constraints, and needs a mechanism to provide quick responses for dynamic resource and environmental issues. For this, a GIS-based multifunctional Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) is being developed at the National Wetlands Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey (formerly the Southern Science Center of the US. Fish and Wildlife Service/National Biological Service).

Louisiana↗

USGS2016

Volcanic aquifers of Hawai‘i—Hydrogeology, water budgets, and conceptual models

Hawai‘i’s aquifers have limited capacity to store fresh groundwater because each island is small and surrounded by saltwater. Saltwater also underlies much of the fresh groundwater. Fresh groundwater resources are, therefore, particularly vulnerable to human activity, short-term climate cycles, and long-term climate change. Availability of fresh groundwater for human use is constrained by the degree to which the impacts of withdrawal—such as lowering of the water table, saltwater intrusion, and reduction in the natural discharge to springs, streams, wetlands, and submarine seeps—are deemed acceptable. This report describes the hydrogeologic framework, groundwater budgets (inflows and outflows), conceptual models of groundwater occurrence and movement, and the factors limiting groundwater availability for the largest and most populated of the Hawaiian Islands—Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island. The bulk of each of Hawai‘i’s islands is built of many thin lava flows erupted from shield volcanoes; the great piles of lava flows form highly permeable aquifers. In some areas, low-permeability dikes cutting across the lava flows, or low-permeability ash and soil horizons interlayered with the lava flows, can substantially alter groundwater flow. On some islands, sedimentary rocks form thick semiconfining coastal-plain deposits, locally known as caprock, that impede natural groundwater discharge to the ocean. In some regions, thick lava flows that ponded in preexisting depressions form aquifers that are much less permeable than aquifers formed by thin lava flows. Fresh groundwater inflow to Hawai‘i’s aquifers comes from recharge. For predevelopment conditions (1870), estimates of groundwater recharge from this study are 871, 675, 1,279, and 5,291 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island, respectively. Estimates of recharge for recent conditions (2010 land cover and 1978–2007 rainfall for Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui; 2008 land cover and 1916–1983 rainfall for Hawai‘i Island) are 875, 660, 1,308, and 6,595 Mgal/d for Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island, respectively. Recent recharge values differ from predevelopment recharge values by only a few percent for all islands except Hawai‘i Island, where changes in forest cover affected recharge. Spatial distribution of recharge mimics the orographic rainfall pattern—recharge is high on windward slopes and mountain peaks below the top of the trade-wind inversion. Human activity such as irrigation also contributes to recharge in some areas. Outflows from Hawai‘i’s aquifers include withdrawals from wells and natural groundwater discharge to springs, streams, wetlands, and submarine seeps. Under predevelopment conditions, groundwater withdrawal is assumed to be negligible and natural groundwater discharge probably was equal, or close, to recharge. Under recent conditions (2000–2010), groundwater withdrawal averaged 19, 209, 104, and 103 Mgal/d on Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island, respectively. If recent withdrawal and recharge rates are maintained until steady state is achieved, natural groundwater discharge will be reduced by an amount equal to the withdrawal rate. Total recent withdrawal for the four islands is only about 5 percent of total recharge, but about half of the withdrawal comes from O‘ahu, whereas O‘ahu receives only 7 percent of the total recharge. Effects of high withdrawals on O‘ahu cannot be mitigated by the lower withdrawals on other islands because no freshwater flows between islands. Even within an island, high withdrawals from one area cannot be completely mitigated by recharge in another area. Water-level, saltwater/freshwater-transition-zone, spring, and stream base-flow data indicate an overall reduction in storage for most areas where groundwater has been developed. Groundwater occurrence and movement in Hawai‘i’s volcanic aquifers can be described in terms of four conceptual models: (1) fresh groundwater lenses in high-permeability lava-flow aquifers, (2) aquifers with groundwater impounded by dikes, (3) thickly saturated low-permeability aquifers, and (4) perched aquifers. In Hawai‘i, most fresh groundwater withdrawn for human use comes from freshwater lenses in the dike-free high-permeability lava-flow aquifers where the principal limiting factor to groundwater availability is saltwater intrusion, but impacts of reduced natural groundwater discharge may also limit availability. Dike-impounded groundwater is common near the center of Hawaiian shield volcanoes, where water moves and is stored in permeable lava flows between the dikes; groundwater availability in these aquifers is primarily limited by storage depletion and reduction of flow to adjacent aquifers and natural groundwater discharge. Thickly saturated low-permeability aquifers have been identified on Kaua‘i and Maui; groundwater availability is primarily limited by streamflow depletion and water-table decline. Perched groundwater is postulated to exist in some areas of Hawai‘i, but store much less water than other modes ofgroundwater occurrence. Limits on groundwater availability in perched aquifers include the potential of reducing inflow to other groundwater settings and reducing natural discharge and stream seepage. Some groundwater bodies in Hawai‘i are enigmatic; consequences of groundwater development in these bodies and their relation to groundwater availability are not completely understood.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2025

Peak streamflow trends in Montana and northern Wyoming and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Frequency analysis on annual peak streamflow (hereinafter, peak flow) is essential to water-resources management applications, including critical structure design (for example, bridges and culverts) and floodplain mapping. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the distributional properties (the mean, variance, or skew) change either gradually (monotonic trend) or abruptly (shift, step change or change point) through time. Not incorporating or accounting for observed nonstationarity into peak-flow frequency analysis might result in a poor representation of the true probability of large floods and thus misrepresent the actual flood risks to life and property. This report summarizes how hydroclimatic variability might affect the temporal and spatial distributions of peak-flow data in the State of Montana (and northern Wyoming) and is part of a larger study to document peak-flow nonstationarity and hydroclimatic changes across a nine-State region consisting of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flows. This study was completed in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. The purpose of this report is to characterize temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity in peak flows and hydroclimatology in Montana and northern Wyoming. In this evaluation, peak-flow, daily streamflow, and model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties that might indicate changing climatic and environmental conditions. This report includes background information on the study area, the history of U.S. Geological Survey peak-flow data collection and frequency analysis in Montana, and the review of research relating to hydroclimatic variability and change in Montana. This study might help provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in peak-flow frequency updates that commonly are completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with other agencies throughout the Nation. The analytical structure of this study includes analyses of monotonic trends and change points in numerous hydroclimatic variables in assigned 30-, 50-, 75-, and 100-year analysis periods. For Montana and part of Wyoming, the 30-, 50-, 75, and 100-year analyses included 157, 70, 48, and 12 streamgages, respectively. For those streamgages, nonstationarities were analyzed in the following variables: (1) climatic variables, including annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) temperature and precipitation; (2) daily streamflow variables, including the annual center of volume duration, annual center of volume median, and peaks over threshold with a mean of four events per year; and (3) annual peak-flow variables, including peak-flow timing and magnitude. A likelihood approach was used to express statistical confidence and assign the nonstationarity results as likely upward or downward (highest statistical confidence), somewhat likely upward or downward (less statistical confidence), or about as likely as not (little statistical confidence; hereinafter, neutral). For the nonstationarity analyses of the climatic, daily streamflow, and peak-flow variables, the results are presented in detail and discussed with respect to statewide patterns and geographic variability. For each of the 30-, 50-, and 75-year analyses, peak-flow change-point and monotonic trend analyses were compiled for streamgages classified with likely downward or likely upward trends. For those streamgages, the associated basin characteristics and nonstationarity results for peak-flow timing, daily streamflow, and climatic variables were investigated and statistically compared to discern associations among other variables that might contribute to the peak-flow nonstationarity results. The 50- and 75-year peak-flow nonstationarities identified in this study are mostly downward, in association with mostly upward temperature and potential evapotranspiration:precipitation monotonic trends. For the 50-, 75-, and 100-year analyses, the peak-flow change points are predominantly downward and are concentrated in the 1970s and 1980s, which indicates general consistency among the longer trend periods. These findings are in association with substantial research documenting globally rising temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that might be largely attributed to anthropogenic activities. Anthropogenic effects might represent long-term (on the order of several decades to more than a century) climate changes that might happen within highly variable natural climate fluctuations. Several paleo studies in the north-central United States have indicated that hydroclimatic extremes (that is, low- and high-streamflow conditions) before European settlement have been outside of extremes since the 1900s. Depending on the interactions of anthropogenic effects and natural climate variability, extreme high-streamflow conditions might occur in the future, even in the presence of long-term downward peak-flow trends.

Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS1998

A demonstration of the instream flow incremental methodology, Shenandoah River, Virginia

Current and projected demands on the water resources of the Shenandoah River have increased concerns for the potential effect of these demands on the natural integrity of the Shenandoah River system. The Instream Flow Incremental Method (IFIM) process attempts to integrate concepts of water-supply planning, analytical hydraulic engineering models, and empirically derived habitat versus flow functions to address water-use and instream-flow issues and questions concerning life-stage specific effects on selected species and the general well being of aquatic biological populations. The demonstration project also sets the stage for the identification and compilation of the major instream-flow issues in the Shenandoah River Basin, development of the required multidisciplinary technical team to conduct more detailed studies, and development of basin specific habitat and flow requirements for fish species, species assemblages, and various water uses in the Shenandoah River Basin. This report presents the results of an IFIM demonstration project, conducted on the main stem Shenandoah River in Virginia, during 1996 and 1997, using the Physical Habitat Simulation System (PHABSIM) model. Output from PHABSIM is used to address the general flow requirements for water supply and recreation and habitat for selected life stages of several fish species. The model output is only a small part of the information necessary for effective decision making and management of river resources. The information by itself is usually insufficient for formulation of recommendations regarding instream-flow requirements. Additional information, for example, can be obtained by analysis of habitat time-series data, habitat duration data, and habitat bottlenecks. Alternative-flow analysis and habitat-duration curves are presented.

Virginia↗

USGS2014

The 3D Elevation Program: summary for Missouri

Elevation data are essential to a broad range of applications, including forest resources management, wildlife and habitat management, national security, recreation, and many others. For the State of Missouri, elevation data are critical for agriculture and precision farming; natural resources conservation; flood risk management; homeland security, law enforcement, and disaster response; infrastructure and construction management; water supply and quality; and other business uses. Today, high-density light detection and ranging (lidar) data are the primary sources for deriving elevation models and other datasets. Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies work in partnership to (1) replace data that are older and of lower quality and (2) provide coverage where publicly accessible data do not exist. A joint goal of State and Federal partners is to acquire consistent, statewide coverage to support existing and emerging applications enabled by lidar data. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment evaluated multiple elevation data acquisition options to determine the optimal data quality and data replacement cycle relative to cost to meet the identified requirements of the user community. The evaluation demonstrated that lidar acquisition at quality level 2 for the conterminous United States and quality level 5 ifsar data for Alaska with a 6- to 10-year acquisition cycle provided the highest benefit/cost ratios. The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) initiative selected an 8-year acquisition cycle for the respective quality levels. 3DEP, managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Office of Management and Budget Circular A–16 lead agency for terrestrial elevation data, responds to the growing need for high-quality topographic data and a wide range of other 3D representations of the Nation’s natural and constructed features.

Missouri↗

USGS2023

Estimating phosphorus retention capacity of flow-through wetlands

A Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach is introduced to pool data properly from multiple flow-through wetlands to estimate wetland-specific long-term phosphorus retention capacity. By pooling data from multiple wetlands, we overcome the difficulties in estimating the effectiveness of using constructed and natural wetlands for nutrient reduction. The Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach reduces estimation uncertainty by shrinking wetland-specific estimates towards the overall average of the same quantity from multiple wetlands, facilitating information sharing across sites, thereby reducing the demand on sample sizes from individual wetlands and avoiding several common pitfalls of using large data (i.e., from multiple systems) induced by Simpson's paradox. In this paper, we develop a sequential updating framework to alleviate the computational burden of compiling and modeling data from multiple wetlands. We then demonstrate the sequential updating process to estimate retention capacity of a suite of wetlands in Ohio, USA. A total of four wetlands, representing both natural and constructed wetlands, were used. The estimated total phosphorus retention capacities range less than 0.01 to well over 1 ton per year per system. As wetland restoration initiatives expand around the Laurentian Great Lakes and nationally, this model serves as an important initial step in developing tools to meet nutrient reduction goals and standards. Extending this work, we have developed a publicly accessible on-line open computation platform that can help natural resource specialists better plan for wetland efficacy in the future.

Ecological Engineering↗

USGS2016

Spatially explicit rangeland erosion monitoring using high-resolution digital aerial imagery

Nearly all of the ecosystem services supported by rangelands, including production of livestock forage, carbon sequestration, and provisioning of clean water, are negatively impacted by soil erosion. Accordingly, monitoring the severity, spatial extent, and rate of soil erosion is essential for long-term sustainable management. Traditional field-based methods of monitoring erosion (sediment traps, erosion pins, and bridges) can be labor intensive and therefore are generally limited in spatial intensity and/or extent. There is a growing effort to monitor natural resources at broad scales, which is driving the need for new soil erosion monitoring tools. One remote-sensing technique that can be used to monitor soil movement is a time series of digital elevation models (DEMs) created using aerial photogrammetry methods. By geographically coregistering the DEMs and subtracting one surface from the other, an estimate of soil elevation change can be created. Such analysis enables spatially explicit quantification and visualization of net soil movement including erosion, deposition, and redistribution. We constructed DEMs (12-cm ground sampling distance) on the basis of aerial photography immediately before and 1 year after a vegetation removal treatment on a 31-ha Piñon-Juniper woodland in southeastern Utah to evaluate the use of aerial photography in detecting soil surface change. On average, we were able to detect surface elevation change of ± 8−9cm and greater, which was sufficient for the large amount of soil movement exhibited on the study area. Detecting more subtle soil erosion could be achieved using the same technique with higher-resolution imagery from lower-flying aircraft such as unmanned aerial vehicles. DEM differencing and process-focused field methods provided complementary information and a more complete assessment of soil loss and movement than any single technique alone. Photogrammetric DEM differencing could be used as a technique to quantitatively monitor surface change over time relative to management activities.

Utah↗

USGS2000

Monitoring air quality in mountains: Designing an effective network

A quantitatively robust yet parsimonious air-quality monitoring network in mountainous regions requires special attention to relevant spatial and temporal scales of measurement and inference. The design of monitoring networks should focus on the objectives required by public agencies, namely: 1) determine if some threshold has been exceeded (e.g., for regulatory purposes), and 2) identify spatial patterns and temporal trends (e.g., to protect natural resources). A short-term, multi-scale assessment to quantify spatial variability in air quality is a valuable asset in designing a network, in conjunction with an evaluation of existing data and simulation-model output. A recent assessment in Washington state (USA) quantified spatial variability in tropospheric ozone distribution ranging from a single watershed to the western third of the state. Spatial and temporal coherence in ozone exposure modified by predictable elevational relationships (∼ 1.3 ppbv ozone per 100 m elevation gain) extends from urban areas to the crest of the Cascade Range. This suggests that a sparse network of permanent analyzers is sufficient at all spatial scales, with the option of periodic intensive measurements to validate network design. It is imperative that agencies cooperate in the design of monitoring networks in mountainous regions to optimize data collection and financial efficiencies.

Washington↗

USGS2002

Statistical characteristics of xenoliths in the Antioch kimberlite pipe, Marshall County, northeastern Kansas

Geometrical characteristics of xenoliths in the Antioch kimberlite pipe have been considered in statistical terms. A method of conversion of 2D intersections to 3D dimensions was used. It has been shown that the Rosin-Rammler distribution of mass leads to the Weibull distribution of sizes, whereas a fractal distribution of sizes can be expressed as the Pareto distribution. Lognormal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions have been tested as model distributions. The Pareto distribution could be the most appropriate model for the distribution of xenoliths. This conclusion is in agreement with the general concept that the xenoliths formed as a result of an underground explosion without additional breakage occurring during magma transport. The final distribution may be shifted from the initial model as a result of processes of redistribution and sorting of xenoliths in liquid-crystalline flows.

Kansas↗

USGS2009

Helicopter Electromagnetic and Magnetic Geophysical Survey Data for Portions of the North Platte River and Lodgepole Creek, Nebraska, June 2008

This report is a release of digital data from a helicopter electromagnetic and magnetic survey that was conducted during June 2008 in areas of western Nebraska as part of a joint hydrologic study by the North Platte Natural Resource District, South Platte Natural Resource District, and U.S. Geological Survey. The objective of the contracted survey, conducted by Fugro Airborne, Ltd., was to improve the understanding of the relationship between surface water and groundwater systems critical to developing groundwater models used in management programs for water resources. The survey covered 1,375 line km (854 line mi). A unique aspect of this survey is the flight line layout. One set of flight lines were flown paralleling each side of the east-west trending North Platte River and Lodgepole Creek. The survey also included widely separated (10 km) perpendicular north-south lines. The success of this survey design depended on a well understood regional hydrogeologic framework and model developed by the Cooperative Hydrologic Study of the Platte River Basin. Resistivity variations along lines could be related to this framework. In addition to these lines, more traditional surveys consisting of parallel flight lines separated by about 270 m were carried out for one block in each of the drainages. These surveys helped to establish the spatial variations of the resistivity of hydrostratigraphic units. The electromagnetic equipment consisted of six different coil-pair orientations that measured resistivity at separated frequencies from about 400 Hz to about 140,000 Hz. The electromagnetic data along flight lines were converted to electrical resistivity. The resulting line data were converted to geo-referenced grids and maps which are included with this report. In addition to the electromagnetic data, total field magnetic data and digital elevation data were collected. Data released in this report consist of data along flight lines, digital grids, and digital maps of the apparent resistivity and total magnetic field. The depth range of the subsurface investigation for the electromagnetic survey (estimated as deep as 60 m) is comparable to the depth of shallow aquifers. The geophysical data and hydrologic information from U.S. Geological Survey and cooperator studies are being used by resource managers to develop groundwater resource plans for the area. In addition, data will be used to refine hydrologic models in western Nebraska.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2017

Lizard activity and abundance greater in burned habitat of a xeric montane forest

Restoring the natural or historical state of ecosystems is a common objective among resource managers, but determining whether desired system responses to management actions are occurring is often protracted and challenging. For wildlife, the integration of mechanistic habitat modeling with population monitoring may provide expedited measures of management effectiveness and improve understanding of how management actions succeed or fail to recover populations. Southern Appalachia is a region of high biodiversity that has undergone dramatic change as a result of human activities such as historic logging, exotic invasions, and alteration of disturbance regimes—including reduction in application of fire. Contemporary efforts to restore fire-maintained ecosystems within southern Appalachian forests require tools to assess the effects of fire management practices on individual animal fitness and relate them to corresponding influences on species abundance. Using automated sensing equipment, we investigated the effects of burned forests on reptile habitat suitability within the western portion of Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee. Specifically, we used microclimate measurements to model northern fence lizard Sceloporus undulatus hyacinthinus diurnal activity budgets in unburned and variable burn age (3–27-y) forest stands. We estimated northern fence lizard occurrence and abundance along transects through burned and unburned forests. Burned forest stands had microclimates that resulted in longer modeled daily activity periods under most conditions during summer. S. undulatus abundance was 4.75 times greater on burned stands compared to paired unburned stands, although the relationship between burn age and abundance was not well determined. Results suggest the more open habitat structure of burned areas within these xeric pine–oak forests may benefit S. undulatus .

Tennesee↗

USGS2007

Prediction of resource volumes at untested locations using simple local prediction models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

Natural Resources Research↗

USGS2021

Assessment of water availability in the Osage Nation using an integrated hydrologic-flow model

The Osage Nation of northeastern Oklahoma, conterminous with Osage County, covers about 2,900 square miles. The area is primarily rural with 62 percent of the land being native prairie grass, and much of the area is used for cattle ranching and extraction of petroleum and natural gas. Protection of water rights are important to the Osage Nation because of its reliance on cattle ranching and the potential for impairment of water quality by petroleum extraction. Additionally, the potential for future population increases, demands for water from neighboring areas such as the Tulsa metropolitan area, and expansion of petroleum and natural-gas extraction on water resources of this area further the need for the Osage Nation to better understand its water availability. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Osage Nation, completed a hydrologic investigation to assess the status and availability of surface-water and groundwater resources in the Osage Nation. A transient integrated hydrologic-flow model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey fully integrated hydrologic-flow model called the MODFLOW One-Water Hydrologic Model. The integrated hydrologic-flow model, called the Osage Nation Integrated Hydrologic Model (ONIHM), was constructed and uses an orthogonal grid of 276 rows and 289 columns, and each grid cell measures 1,312.34 feet (ft; 400 meters) per side, with eight variably thick vertical layers that represented the alluvial and bedrock aquifers within the study area, including the alluvial aquifer, the Vamoosa-Ada aquifer, and the minor Pennsylvanian bedrock aquifers, and the confining units. Landscape and groundwater-flow processes were simulated for two periods: (1) the 1950–2014 period from January 1950 through September 2014 and (2) the forecast period from October 2014 through December 2099. The 1950–2014 period ONIHM simulated past conditions using measured or estimated inputs, and the forecast-period ONIHM simulated three separate potential forecast conditions under constant dry, average, or wet climate conditions using calibrated input values from the 1950–2014 period ONIHM. The 1950–2014 period ONIHM was calibrated by linking the Parameter Estimation software (PEST) with the MODFLOW One-Water Hydrologic Model. PEST uses statistical parameter estimation techniques to identify the best set of parameter values to minimize the difference between measured or estimated calibration targets and their simulated equivalent values (residuals). Tikhonov regularization and singular-value decomposition-assist features of PEST were used during the calibration process. The 1950–2014 period ONIHM was calibrated to 713 measured groundwater levels at 195 wells; 95,636 estimated monthly mean groundwater levels at 124 wells; 5,307 measured streamflows at 13 streamgages; and 8,679 simulated mean monthly streamflows at 10 streamgages extracted from a surface-water model by adjusting 231 parameters. The estimated groundwater-level observations and streamflows were included as observations to improve the spatial and temporal density of observation targets during calibration. The best set of parameter values obtained during the calibration process of the 1950–2014 model was then used as the input parameter values for the forecast model simulations. A comparison of the calibration targets to their corresponding simulated values indicated that the model adequately reproduced streamflows and groundwater levels for some streamgages and wells and underestimated streamflows and groundwater levels at other locations. Measured and simulated streamflows correlated adequately with a coefficient of determination of 0.938, as did water levels with a coefficient of determination of 0.795. The 1950–2014 period ONIHM underestimated certain groundwater levels and streamflows, but generally measured or estimated calibration targets correlated well with simulated equivalents, which indicated that the model can adequately simulate the response of the hydrologic system to stresses in the 1950–2014 and forecast periods. In the 1950–2014 period ONIHM, the calibrated mean horizontal hydraulic conductivity for layer 1 alluvial aquifer was 30.7 feet per day, and the seven lower layers had a calibrated mean horizontal hydraulic conductivity of less than 3.3 feet per day. The mean calibrated groundwater-level residual was 16.6 ft, and the mean calibrated streamflow residual of the Arkansas River at Ralston, Oklahoma, streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 07152500) was within 6 percent (373 cubic feet per second) of mean measured streamflow for the 1950–2014 period ONIHM. The ONIHM simulated landscape fluxes of precipitation; groundwater applied by irrigation wells; evapotranspiration from precipitation, groundwater, and irrigation; runoff from precipitation; and deep percolation from precipitation. The largest loss of water from the landscape was evapotranspiration from precipitation with a calibrated mean annual outflow of 32 inches (in.): mean annual precipitation was about 36 in. Calibrated mean annual runoff and deep percolation (recharge to the water table) rates were 4.7 inches per year (in/yr) and 0.70 in/yr, respectively, for the 1950–2014 period ONIHM. The calibrated 1950–2014 period ONIHM groundwater fluxes included net farm net recharge (calculated as the difference between the inflow of recharge to the water table and the outflow of evapotranspiration from the water table such that negative values indicate that evapotranspiration from the water table was greater than deep percolation [recharge to the water table] and vice versa). Net farm net recharge was the largest flux from the groundwater system with a mean annual net outflow of 153.4 cubic feet per second. Stream leakage was the largest flux to the groundwater system with a mean annual net inflow of 152.5 cubic feet per second, indicating that, on average, the groundwater/surface-water interaction was a “losing” system where stream water leaked into the subsurface and recharged the water table. Simulated monthly trends demonstrated that net stream leakage was the largest inflow to the groundwater-flow system for 10 of the 12 months; for the other 2 months (January and March), farm net recharge (January) and net storage (March) were the largest inflow to the groundwater-flow system. A saline groundwater interface map was created for the study and compared to the water levels from the final stress period of the 1950–2014 model to identify the presence of fresh/marginal groundwater throughout the study area. Fresh/marginal groundwater was characterized as groundwater with less than 1,500 milligrams per liter of total dissolved solids. Fresh/marginal groundwater thickness ranged from 0 to 438.2 ft within the study area. The thickest regions of fresh/marginal groundwater were in the eastern part of the study area near Sand Creek, Bird Creek, and Hominy Creek and in the Arkansas River alluvial aquifer in the region downstream from the Arkansas River at Ralston, Okla. Like the 1950–2014 model, forecast model results for the landscape indicated that transpiration from precipitation was the largest flux out of the landscape for all three forecasts, constituting 77, 73, and 58 percent of precipitation for the dry, average, and wet forecasts, respectively. The dry and average forecast landscape fluxes demonstrated similar trends and magnitudes, whereas the wet forecast landscape fluxes indicated the largest changes compared to the average forecast fluxes. Most notably, runoff increased from a mean of 1.1 and 1.6 in/yr for the dry and average forecasts, respectively, to 10 in/yr for the wet forecast. Similar changes occurred for the other wet forecast landscape fluxes. The calibrated 1950–2014 period ONIHM simulated three forecasts to assess the effects of potential climatic changes on the hydrologic system from October 2014 to December 2099. The three forecasts simulated theoretical dry, average, and wet conditions using precipitation and potential evapotranspiration datasets from selected years in the calibrated 1950–2014 period ONIHM. Annual precipitation amounts were 26.89, 35.47, and 50.73 in. for the dry, average, and wet forecasts, respectively. Groundwater-flow component forecast results indicated that stream leakage is always a net inflow to the groundwater-flow system for dry, average, and wet conditions, meaning the study area stream network is always predominantly a “losing” regime where stream water infiltrates into the underlying aquifer. Storage was only a net outflow from the groundwater-flow system and indicated a replenishment to groundwater storage that resulted in an increase in groundwater levels only during the wet forecast. Further, these gains in groundwater storage for the wet forecast occurred only during February through June. Mean fresh/marginal groundwater saturated thicknesses were 125 and 126 ft for the dry and average forecast conditions, respectively, and wet forecast average thickness was 145 ft and ranged from 0 to 443 ft. The spatial extents of fresh/marginal groundwater at the end of the dry, average, and wet forecast model periods (December 2099) did not change substantially from the end of the 1950–2014 model period (September 2014).

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