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Bayesian adaptive survey protocols for resource management

Transparency in resource management decisions requires a proper accounting of uncertainty at multiple stages of the decision‐making process. As information becomes available, periodic review and updating of resource management protocols reduces uncertainty and improves management decisions. One of the most basic steps to mitigating anthropogenic effects on populations is determining if a population of a species occurs in an area that will be affected by human activity. Species are rarely detected with certainty, however, and falsely declaring a species absent can cause improper conservation decisions or even extirpation of populations. We propose a method to design survey protocols for imperfectly detected species that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty in the detection process, is capable of quantitatively incorporating expert opinion into the decision‐making process, allows periodic updates to the protocol, and permits resource managers to weigh the severity of consequences if the species is falsely declared absent. We developed our method using the giant gartersnake ( Thamnophis gigas ), a threatened species precinctive to the Central Valley of California, as a case study. Survey date was negatively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake, and water temperature was positively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake at a sampled location. Reporting sampling effort, timing and duration of surveys, and water temperatures would allow resource managers to evaluate the probability that the giant gartersnake occurs at sampled sites where it is not detected. This information would also allow periodic updates and quantitative evaluation of changes to the giant gartersnake survey protocol. Because it naturally allows multiple sources of information and is predicated upon the idea of updating information, Bayesian analysis is well‐suited to solving the problem of developing efficient sampling protocols for species of conservation concern.

California↗

Techniques to improve ecological interpretability of black box machine learning models

Statistical modeling of ecological data is often faced with a large number of variables as well as possible nonlinear relationships and higher-order interaction effects. Gradient boosted trees (GBT) have been successful in addressing these issues and have shown a good predictive performance in modeling nonlinear relationships, in particular in classification settings with a categorical response variable. They also tend to be robust against outliers. However, their black-box nature makes it difficult to interpret these models. We introduce several recently developed statistical tools to the environmental research community in order to advance interpretation of these black-box models. To analyze the properties of the tools, we applied gradient boosted trees to investigate biological health of streams within the contiguous USA, as measured by a benthic macroinvertebrate biotic index. Based on these data and a simulation study, we demonstrate the advantages and limitations of partial dependence plots (PDP), individual conditional expectation (ICE) curves and accumulated local effects (ALE) in their ability to identify covariate–response relationships. Additionally, interaction effects were quantified according to interaction strength (IAS) and Friedman’s H 2 "> H 2 statistic. Interpretable machine learning techniques are useful tools to open the black-box of gradient boosted trees in the environmental sciences. This finding is supported by our case study on the effect of impervious surface on the benthic condition, which agrees with previous results in the literature. Overall, the most important variables were ecoregion, bed stability, watershed area, riparian vegetation and catchment slope. These variables were also present in most identified interaction effects. In conclusion, graphical tools (PDP, ICE, ALE) enable visualization and easier interpretation of GBT but should be supported by analytical statistical measures. Future methodological research is needed to investigate the properties of interaction tests. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

Deer carcass decomposition and potential scavenger exposure to chronic wasting disease

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy afflicting the Cervidae family in North America, causing neurodegeneration and ultimately death. Although there are no reports of natural cross-species transmission of CWD to noncervids, infected deer carcasses pose a potential risk of CWD exposure for other animals. We placed 40 disease-free white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) carcasses and 10 gut piles in the CWD-affected area of Wisconsin (USA) from September to April in 2003 through 2005. We used photos from remotely operated cameras to characterize scavenger visitation and relative activity. To evaluate factors driving the rate of carcass removal (decomposition), we used KaplanMeier survival analysis and a generalized linear mixed model. We recorded 14 species of scavenging mammals (6 visiting species) and 14 species of scavenging birds (8 visiting species). Prominent scavengers included American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos), raccoons (Procyon lotor), and Virginia opossums (Didelphis virginiana). We found no evidence that deer consumed conspecific remains, although they visited gut piles more often than carcasses relative to temporal availability in the environment. Domestic dogs, cats, and cows either scavenged or visited carcass sites, which could lead to human exposure to CWD. Deer carcasses persisted for 18 days to 101 days depending on the season and year, whereas gut piles lasted for 3 days. Habitat did not influence carcass decomposition, but mammalian and avian scavenger activity and higher temperatures were positively associated with faster removal. Infected deer carcasses or gut piles can serve as potential sources of CWD prions to a variety of scavengers. In areas where surveillance for CWD exposure is practical, management agencies should consider strategies for testing primary scavengers of deer carcass material.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Causes of acidification of four streams on Laurel Hilld in southwestern Pennsylvania

Atmospheric deposition, soils developed from bedrock, a natural bog, gas wells, and a ski area were all investigated as possible sources of water quality degradation for four streams on Laurel Hill in southwestern Pennsylvania where fish kills have been reported since 1960. An intensive study of the chemistry of atmospheric deposition, soil leachate, and stream water and fish populations was conducted on these basins during 1980–1981 with emphasis on dormant season periods with runoff from snowmelt and rain. Although bedrock geology was found to control the natural buffering capacity of these streams, only acid precipitation could be linked to sharp drops in pH and increases in total Al concentrations observed during stormflows in the poorly buffered streams. Three poorly buffered streams exhibited drops to pH 4.4 to 4.5 and increases in total Al concentrations up to 1.5 mg/L during observed peak flows. Mineral soil leachate from the three major soil series on the basins during this time exhibited a low pH of 4.3 and mean total Al concentrations of 3.6 mg/L, indicating stream response during storms was closely linked to chemistry of soil leachate. Poorly buffered streams did not support reproducing populations of trout ( Salmonidae sp.) or other fishes. In contrast, one well-buffered stream (20 mg/L CaCO 3 ) exhibited drops to pH 5.5 during peak flow and supported reproducing trout and sculpin ( Cottus bairdi ) populations. The acidification of the four streams studied was attributed to atmospheric deposition.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

Monitoring suspended sediments and associated chemical constituents in urban environments: Lessons from the city of Atlanta, Georgia, USA Water Quality Monitoring Program

Background, aim, and scope The City of Atlanta, Georgia (COA) is part of the ninth largest metropolitan area in the USA and one of the fastest growing (e.g., >24% between 2000 and 2007). Since 2003, the US Geological Survey has been operating an extensive long-term water-quantity and water-quality monitoring network for the COA. The experience gained in operating this network has provided insights into the challenges as well as some solutions associated with determining urban effects on water quality, especially in terms of estimating the annual fluxes of suspended sediment, trace/major elements, and nutrients. Discussion and findings The majority (>90%) of the annual fluxes of suspended sediment and discharge (>60%) from the COA occur in conjunction with stormflow. Typically, stormflow averages ≤20% of the year. Normally, annual flux calculations employ a daily time-step; however, due to the “flashy” nature of the COA’s streams, this approach can produce substantial underestimates (from 25% to 64%). Greater accuracy requires time-steps as short as every 2 to 3 h. The annual fluxes of ≥75% of trace elements (e.g., Cu, Pb, Zn), major elements (e.g., Fe, Al), and total P occur in association with suspended sediment; in turn, ≥90% of the transport of these constituents occurs in conjunction with stormflow. With the possible exception of nitrogen, baseflow sediment-associated and both baseflow and stormflow dissolved contributions represent relatively insignificant portions of the total annual load; hence, nonpoint (diffuse) sources are the dominant contributors to the fluxes of almost all of these constituents.

Georgia↗

Microbially induced anaerobic oxidation of magnetite to maghemite in a hydrocarbon-contaminated aquifer

Iron mineral transformations occurring in hydrocarbon-contaminated sites are linked to the biodegradation of the hydrocarbons. At a hydrocarbon-contaminated site near Bemidji, Minnesota, USA, measurements of magnetic susceptibility (MS) are useful for monitoring the natural attenuation of hydrocarbons related to iron cycling. However, a transient MS, previously observed at the site, remains poorly understood and the iron mineral phases acting as reactants and products associated with this MS perturbation remain largely unknown. To address these unknowns, we acquired mineral magnetism measurements, including hysteresis loops, backfield curves, and isothermal remanent magnetizations on sediment core samples retrieved from the site and magnetite-filled mineral packets installed within the aquifer. Our data show that the core samples and magnetite packs display decreasing magnetization with time and that this loss in magnetization is accompanied by increasing bulk coercivity consistent with decreased average grain size and/or partial oxidation. Low-temperature magnetometry on all samples displayed behavior consistent with magnetite, but samples within the plume also show evidence of maghemitization. This interpretation is supported by the occurrence of shrinkage cracks on the surface of the grains imaged via scanning electron microscopy. Magnetite transformation to maghemite typically occurs under oxic conditions, here, we propose that maghemitization occurs within the anoxic portions of the plume via microbially mediated anaerobic oxidation. Mineral dissolution also occurs within the plume. Microorganisms capable of such anaerobic oxidation have been identified within other areas at the Bemidji site, but additional microbiological studies are needed to link specific anaerobic iron oxidizers with this loss of magnetization.

Minnesota↗

Limited occurrence of denitrification in four shallow aquifers in agricultural areas of the United States

The ability of natural attenuation to mitigate agricultural nitrate contamination in recharging aquifers was investigated in four important agricultural settings in the United States. The study used laboratory analyses, field measurements, and flow and transport modeling for monitoring well transects (0.5 to 2.5 km in length) in the San Joaquin watershed, California, the Elkhorn watershed, Nebraska, the Yakima watershed, Washington, and the Chester watershed, Maryland. Ground water analyses included major ion chemistry, dissolved gases, nitrogen and oxygen stable isotopes, and estimates of recharge date. Sediment analyses included potential electron donors and stable nitrogen and carbon isotopes. Within each site and among aquifer-based medians, dissolved oxygen decreases with ground water age, and excess N 2 from denitrification increases with age. Stable isotopes and excess N 2 imply minimal denitrifying activity at the Maryland and Washington sites, partial denitrification at the California site, and total denitrification across portions of the Nebraska site. At all sites, recharging electron donor concentrations are not sufficient to account for the losses of dissolved oxygen and nitrate, implying that relict, solid phase electron donors drive redox reactions. Zero-order rates of denitrification range from 0 to 0.14 μmol N L −1 d −1 , comparable to observations of other studies using the same methods. Many values reported in the literature are, however, orders of magnitude higher, which is attributed to a combination of method limitations and bias for selection of sites with rapid denitrification. In the shallow aquifers below these agricultural fields, denitrification is limited in extent and will require residence times of decades or longer to mitigate modern nitrate contamination.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

Light-toned salty soils and co-existing Si-rich species discovered by the Mars Exploration Rover Spirit in Columbia Hills

Light-toned soils were exposed, through serendipitous excavations by Spirit Rover wheels, at eight locations in the Columbia Hills. Their occurrences were grouped into four types on the basis of geomorphic settings. At three major exposures, the light-toned soils are hydrous and sulfate-rich. The spatial distributions of distinct types of salty soils vary substantially: with centimeter-scaled heterogeneities at Paso Robles, Dead Sea, Shredded, and Champagne-Penny, a well-mixed nature for light-toned soils occurring near and at the summit of Husband Hill, and relatively homogeneous distributions in the two layers at the Tyrone site. Aeolian, fumarolic, and hydrothermal fluid processes are suggested to be responsible for the deposition, transportation, and accumulation of these light-toned soils. In addition, a change in Pancam spectra of Tyrone yellowish soils was observed after being exposed to current Martian surface conditions for 175 sols. This change is interpreted to be caused by the dehydration of ferric sulfates on the basis of laboratory simulations and suggests a relative humidity gradient beneath the surface. Si-rich nodules and soils were observed near the major exposures of S-rich soils. They possess a characteristic feature in Pancam visible near-infrared (Vis-NIR) spectra that may be diagnostic of hydrated species, and this spectral feature can be used to search for additional Si-rich species. The exposures of hydrated salty soils within various geomorphic settings imply the potential existence of hydrous minerals in similar settings over a much wider area. Hydrous sulfates represent one of the candidates that may contribute the high level of water equivalent hydrogen in equatorial regions detected by the Neutron Spectrometer on Mars Odyssey.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

When best intentions are not enough - A collaboration between scientists, policymakers, and an agricultural community

Rocky Mountain National Park is a Congressionally mandated Clean Air Act Class I Area, but years of research have documented evidence of biogeochemical and ecological change caused by atmospheric deposition of nitrogen. A coalition of government agencies—National Park Service, the Environmental Protection Agency Region 8, and the State of Colorado—developed the 2007 Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan to reduce wet nitrogen deposition to the park from the baseline in 2006 by 50% by 2032. Fifty-four percent of wet nitrogen deposition is ammonium, primarily sourced from industrial cattle and dairy operations east of the park. An Agriculture Subcommittee, meeting with regulatory and management agencies and scientists since 2006, has explored voluntary options to reduce ammonia emissions. Ammonia emissions are unregulated in the U.S. Despite sustained efforts, neither ammonium deposition nor total inorganic nitrogen deposition have declined at the rate determined to reach the targeted value by 2032. In fact, ammonia is increasing over the Front Range agricultural area. Wet nitrogen deposition in 2024 was 2.81 kg N ha −1 yr −1 , 0.61 kg N ha −1 yr −1 higher than targeted in the Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan. The collaborative approach between agricultural producers, regulatory entities, and resource managers is not working, but not for lack of effort by all parties. Cattle process nitrogen inefficiently, and while management practices can somewhat reduce the proportion of ammonia emitted from feedlots, with more than one million head of cattle east of Rocky Mountain National Park, large-scale reductions are unlikely. New programs to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (46% of wet nitrogen deposition) may reduce nitrogen deposition that is changing park ecosystems. Improved integration of crop and livestock agriculture and valuation of the ecosystem services and economy of Rocky Mountain National Park alongside agricultural value are topics for further discussion. Implications : Nitrogen deposition in precipitation to Rocky Mountain National Park has changed natural ecosystems. To protect its Clean Air Act Class I status a 2007 Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan agreed upon by state and federal agencies set a goal to reduce wet nitrogen deposition to the Park by half by 2032. Industrial livestock operations are a large source of nitrogen; an Agriculture Subcommittee explored voluntary options to reduce emissions from cattle. Despite sustained efforts nitrogen deposition has not declined. Further reductions in industry and transportation emissions will be needed reduce nitrogen deposition to Rocky Mountain National Park.

Colorado↗

The impact of runoff generation mechanisms on the location of critical source areas

Identifying phosphorus (P) source areas and transport pathways is a key step in decreasing P loading to natural water systems. This study compared the effects of two modeled runoff generation processes - saturation excess and infiltration excess - on total phosphorus (TP) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations in 10 catchment streams of a Catskill mountain watershed in southeastern New York. The spatial distribution of runoff from forested land and agricultural land was generated for both runoff processes; results of both distributions were consistent with Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) theory. These spatial runoff distributions were then used to simulate stream concentrations of TP and SRP through a simple equation derived from an observed relation between P concentration and land use; empirical results indicate that TP and SRP concentrations increased with increasing percentage of agricultural land. Simulated TP and SRP stream concentrations predicted for the 10 catchments were strongly affected by the assumed runoff mechanism. The modeled TP and SRP concentrations produced by saturation excess distribution averaged 31 percent higher and 42 percent higher, respectively, than those produced by the infiltration excess distribution. Misrepresenting the primary runoff mechanism could not only produce erroneous concentrations, it could fail to correctly locate critical source areas for implementation of best management practices. Thus, identification of the primary runoff mechanism is critical in selection of appropriate models in the mitigation of nonpoint source pollution. Correct representation of runoff processes is also critical in the future development of biogeochemical transport models, especially those that address nutrient fluxes.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

Effects of hydrology, watershed size, and agricultural practices on sediment yields in two river basins in Iowa and Mississippi

The specific sediment yield (SSY) from watersheds is the result of the balance between natural, scale-dependent erosion and deposition processes, but can be greatly altered by human activities. In general, the SSY decreases along the course of a river as sediments are trapped in alluvial plains and other sinks. However, this relation between SSY and basin area can actually be an increasing one when there is a predominance of channel erosion relative to hillslope erosion. The US Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a study of suspended sediment in the Iowa River basin (IRB), Iowa, and the Yazoo River basin (YRB), Mississippi, from 2006 through 2008. Within each river basin, the SSY from four largely agricultural watersheds of various sizes (2.3 to 35,000 km 2 [0.9 to 13,513 mi 2 ]) was investigated. In the smallest watersheds, YRB sites had greater SSY compared to IRB sites due to higher rain erosivity, more erodible soils, more overland flow, and fluvial geomorphological differences. Watersheds in the YRB showed a steady decrease in SSY with increasing drainage basin area, whereas in the IRB, the maximum SSY occurred at the 30 to 500 km 2 (11.6 to 193 mi 2 ) scale. Subsurface tile drainage and limits to channel downcutting restrict the upstream migration of sediment sources in the IRB. Nevertheless, by comparing the SSY-basin size scaling relationships with estimated rates of field erosion under conservation and conventional tillage treatments reported in previous literature, we show evidence that the SSY-basin size relationship in both the IRB and YRB remain impacted by historical erosion rates that occurred prior to conservation efforts.

Iowa, Mississippi↗

Prescribed-fire effects on an aquatic community of a southwest montane grassland system

The use of prescription fire has long been recognized as a reliable management tool to suppress vegetative succession processes and to reduce fuel loading to prevent catastrophic wildfires, but very little attention has been paid to the effects on aquatic systems. A late-fall prescribed burn was implemented to characterize effects on an aquatic community within a montane grassland system in north-central New Mexico. The fire treatment was consistent with protocols of a managed burn except that the fire was allowed to burn through the riparian area to the treatment stream to replicate natural fire behavior. In addition to summer and fall preburn assessment of the treatment and reference stream, we characterized immediate postfire effects (within a week for macroinvertebrates and within 6 months for fish) and seasonal effects over a 2-year period. Responses within the treatment stream were compared with an unburned reference stream adjacent to the prescription burn. During the burn, the diel range in air temperature increased by 5°C while diel range in water temperature did not change. Carbon–nitrogen ratios did not differ between treatment and reference streams, indicating the contribution of ash from the surrounding grassland was negligible. Although total taxa and species richness of aquatic macroinvertebrates were not altered, qualitative indices revealed departure from preburn condition due to loss of sensitive taxa (mayflies [order Ephemeroptera] and stoneflies [order Plecoptera]) and an increase in tolerant taxa (midges [order Chironomidae]) following the burn. Within 1 year of the burn, these attributes returned to preburn conditions. The density and recruitment of adult Brown Trout Salmo trutta did not differ between pre- and postburn collections, nor did fish condition differ. Fire is rarely truly replicated within a given study. Although our study represents one replication, the results will inform managers about the importance in timing (seasonality) of prescription burn and anticipated effects on aquatic communities.

New Mexico↗

Diversity and abundance of wild bees in an agriculturally dominated landscape of eastern Colorado

Agricultural intensification has resulted in loss of natural and semi-natural habitats impacting several important ecosystem services. One group of organisms that has suffered greatly are the bees and hence pollination, the supporting ecosystem service they complete. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has implemented conservation practices designed to improve habitat for pollinators in agroecosystems by paying to recover environmentally sensitive agricultural land from production, and restoring them by planting native grass mixes, pollinator-friendly legumes and wildflowers. Our study, aimed at demonstrating the efficacy of this practice, measured diversity and abundance of wild bee genera in the agricultural landscape of eastern semiarid regions of Colorado, USA, where CRP practices were implemented. Over our 3-year study, we obtained a total of 16,207 bees belonging to 51 genera. We found inconsistent differences in number of bee genera and abundance of bees in CRP fields supplemented with wildflowers compared to those with conventional grass seed mix. However, we observed only a 40–80% overlap in bee genera between fields supplemented with wildflowers and those with grass seed mixes indicating that diversity was enhanced by having both habitats. With the caveat that 3 years is a very short period to see appreciable changes, our results suggest that recovering environmentally sensitive land can strengthen pollinator populations in landscapes dominated by agricultural activities. In addition, periodic evaluation and maintenance of these recovered lands will further support the efforts towards revitalization of ecosystem services in these areas.

Colorado↗

Physiological characteristics of wild Atlantic salmon post-smolts during estuarine and coastal migration

Changes were measured in some of the major physiological variables associated with seawater adaptability, growth and energetics in wild Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts and post-smolts migrating from the river and through the estuary, fjord and coastal areas in the River Orkla and the Trondheimsfjord, Norway during late May to early June. Gill Na+,K+-ATPase activity increased to levels of 12-16 ??mol ADP mg protein-1 h -1 in post-smolts caught in higher salinity zones, probably representing long-term levels of Atlantic salmon post-smolts in oceanic conditions. Muscle moisture was regulated within narrow limits (77.7-78.7%) in fish from all zones during both years, suggesting that post-smolts adapt to marine conditions without any long-term disturbance of hydro-mineral balance. Lipid and glycogen content showed a general trend towards depletion from the river, through the fjord and into the ocean. There was, however, no significant change in protein content. The present results confirm that smolts are naturally 'energy deficient' during downstream migration, and suggest that post-smolts also mobilize energy reserves during their early marine phase, while protein is allocated for somatic growth. Plasma growth hormone (GH) levels increased transiently during passage through the estuary and fjord, with lower levels observed in post-smolts caught off-shore, i.e. in fish which were feeding on marine prey and had adapted to the marine environment. These physiological changes may confer substantial selective advantages during the critical early marine phase of anadromous salmonids, and hence are adaptive for long-term survival in sea water. ?? 2003 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Journal of Fish Biology↗

Anthropogenic and geologic causes of anomalously high uranium concentrations in groundwater used for drinking water supply in the southeastern San Joaquin Valley, CA

Concentrations of uranium (U) >30 µg/L in groundwater are relatively uncommon in drinking water in the United States but can be of concern in those areas where complex interactions of aquifer materials and anthropogenic alterations of the natural flow regime mobilize uranium. High concentrations (>30 µg/L) of U in the southeastern San Joaquin Valley, California, USA, have been detected in 24 percent of 257 domestic, irrigation, and public-supply wells sampled across an approximately 110,000 km2 area. The location of high concentrations depends on the interactions of U sources from fluvial fans that originate in the Sierra Nevada to the east and seepage of irrigation water that contains high concentrations of HCO3 that leaches U from the sediments. In addition, interactions with phosphate (PO4) from fertilized irrigated fields may sequester U in the aquifer. Principal component analysis of the data demonstrates that HCO3 and ions associated with high total dissolved solids in the aquifer and the percentage of agriculture near the well sampled are associated with high U concentrations. Nitrate concentrations do not appear to control release of U to the aquifer. Age dating of the groundwater and generally increasing U concentrations of the past 25 years in resampled wells where irrigation is prevalent suggests that high U concentrations are associated with younger water, indicating that irrigation of fields over the past 100 years has significantly contributed to increasing concentrations and mobilizing U. In some places, the groundwater is supersaturated with uranyl-containing minerals, as would be expected in roll front deposits. In general, the interaction of natural geological sources high in U, the anthropogenically driven addition of HCO3 and possibly phosphate fertilizer, control the location and concentration of U in each individual fluvial fan, but the addition of nitrate in fertilizer does not appear control the location of high U. These geochemical interactions can be used to determine controls on anomalously high U in alluvial aquifers

California↗

Phreatophyte influence on reductive dechlorination in a shallow aquifer contaminated with trichloroethene (TCE)

Phytoremediation uses the natural ability of plants to degrade contaminants in groundwater. A field demonstration designed to remediate aerobic shallow groundwater contaminated with trichloroethene began in April 1996 with the planting of cottonwood trees, a short-rotation woody crop, over an approximately 0.2-ha area at the Naval Air Station, Fort Worth, Texas. The project was developed to demonstrate capture of contaminated groundwater and degradation of contaminants by phreatophytes. Analyses from samples of groundwater collected from July 1997 to June 1998 indicate that tree roots have the potential to create anaerobic conditions in the groundwater that will facilitate degradation of trichloroethene by microbially mediated reductive dechlorination. Organic matter from root exudates and decay of tree roots probably stimulate microbial activity, consuming dissolved oxygen. Dissolved oxygen concentrations, which varied across the site, were smallest near a mature cottonwood tree (about 20 years of age and 60 meters southwest of the cottonwood plantings) where degradation products of trichloroethene were measured. Oxidation of organic matter is the primary microbially mediated reaction occurring in the groundwater beneath the planted trees whereas near the mature cottonwood tree, data indicate that methanogenesis is the most probable reaction occurring. Reductive dechlorination in groundwater either is not occurring or is not a primary process away from the mature tree. Carbon-13 isotope values for trichloroethene are nearly identical at locations away from the mature tree, further confirming that dechlorination is not occurring at the site.

Texas↗

Trace element geochemistry of altered volcanic ash layers (tonsteins) in late Permian coal-bearing formations of eastern Yunnan and western Guizhou Provinces, China

Trace element compositions were determined (by instrumental neutron activation analysis; INAA) in 30 samples of synsedimentary volcanic ash-derived tonsteins and detrital claystones from coal seams within the late Permian coal-bearing formation of eastern Yunnan and western Guizhou Provinces, China. The characteristics of trace-element geochemistry in the tonsteins can be distinguished from those of detrital claystones because of the former's unique volcanic-ash origin. The detrital claystones are characterized by their relatively high content of V, Ti, Sc, Cr, Co and Ni, relatively low content of Th and U, Th/U ratio, and small negative Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu* 0.63-0.93). Overall, these trace element characteristics are consistent with a mafic source similar to the composition of basalt rocks in the erosional region on the western edge of the study area. In contrast, the tonsteins are low in V, Ti, Sc, Cr, Co and Ni contents and have a high Th/U ratio with a distinct negative Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu* normally in the range of 0.2-0.4), consistent with a silicic magmatic source. Within the group of tonsteins, those from the lower section (P2.1) of the coal-bearing formation are relatively high in Ti, Zr, Hf, Nb, Ta and rare earth elements (REE), as compared to those from the middle and upper sections (P2.2+3). In trace-element discrimination diagrams (scatter plots) of Hf-Ta, Ti-Ta, Ti-V, Hf-Sc, Lu-Hf and Lu-Th, tonsteins from the P2.1 horizon always fall in isolated distribution areas, separate from the tonsteins of the P2.2+3 horizon. These results suggest that the source materials of tonsteins from the two separate horizons were probably derived from volcanic ash falls of two distinctly different natures. Based on a comparison of the concentrations and assemblages of trace elements between various magmatic rocks, the source materials of tonsteins from P2.1 horizon were mostly composed of calc-alkalic, silica-poor volcanic ash (similar to rhyodacitic magma), whereas those from P2.+3 were apparently more siliceous and K-rich (rhyolitic magma). Thus, tonsteins from the two different horizons are characterized by unique geochemical properties, which remain constant over a wide lateral extent. Integration of trace-elemental compositions with mineralogical and textural observations makes possible the establishment of tonstein stratigraphy, thus, facilitating more precise and reliable coal-seam correlations. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.Trace element compositions were determined in 30 samples of synsedimentary volcanic ash-derived tonsteins and detrital claystones from coal seams within the late Permian coal-bearing formation of eastern Yunnan and western Guizhou Provinces, China. The characteristics of trace-element geochemistry in the tonsteins can be distinguished from those of detrital claystones because of the former's unique volcanic-ash origin. The detrital claystones are characterized by their relatively high content of V, Ti, Sc, CR, Co and Ni, relatively low content of Th and U, Th/U ratio, and small negative Eu anomaly.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

Distinguishing between regression model fits to global mean sea level reconstructions

Global mean sea level (GMSL) has been rising since the last century, posing a serious challenge for the coastal areas. A variety of regression models have been utilized for determining GMSL rise over the past one hundred years, resulting in a large spread of sea level rise rates and multidecadal variations. In this study, we develop a new nonparametric noise model that is data-dependent and considers overfitting due to regression. The noise model is used to determine whether one regression model has significantly better skill than others over the period 1900–2010. The choices of background noise and GMSL reconstruction influence whether two sea level models can be statistically distinguished. With our new nonparametric noise spectra, the differences of model skills in explaining sea level variance are significant only in 34% of model comparisons. However, stepwise trends with three inflection points are significantly more skillful than the linear, quadratic, or exponential trend for most GMSL reconstructions, suggesting the importance of multidecadal variability of sea level rise in the twentieth century. Nevertheless, stepwise trend models cannot be distinguished from models with a long-term harmonic oscillation, indicating that the shape of multidecadal variability is not conclusive. The multidecadal variability is also significant in the steric and barystatic sea level contributions and is related to both natural and anthropogenic forcings. GMSL predictions based on regression fits in the twentieth century underestimate the sea level rise rate over the period 2011–2020 because the sea level acceleration in the recent decade (2011–2020) is not well represented.

Journal of Geophysical Research- Oceans↗