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At least 505 records · Page 28Linked to original sources
USGS2004

New constraints on the active tectonic deformation of the Aegean

Site velocities from six separate Global Positioning System (GPS) networks comprising 374 stations have been referred to a single common Eurasia-fixed reference frame to map the velocity distribution over the entire Aegean. We use the GPS velocity field to identify deforming regions, rigid elements, and potential microplate boundaries, and build upon previous work by others to initially specify rigid elements in central Greece, the South Aegean, Anatolia, and the Sea of Marmara. We apply an iterative approach, tentatively defining microplate boundaries, determining best fit rigid rotations, examining misfit patterns, and revising the boundaries to achieve a better match between model and data. Short-term seismic cycle effects are minor contaminants of the data that we remove when necessary to isolate the long-term kinematics. We find that present day Aegean deformation is due to the relative motions of four microplates and straining in several isolated zones internal to them. The RMS misfit of model to data is about 2-sigma, very good when compared to the typical match between coseismic fault models and GPS data. The simplicity of the microplate description of the deformation and its good fit to the GPS data are surprising and were not anticipated by previous work, which had suggested either many rigid elements or broad deforming zones that comprise much of the Aegean region. The isolated deforming zones are also unexpected and cannot be explained by the kinematics of the microplate motions. Strain rates within internally deforming zones are extensional and range from 30 to 50 nanostrain/year (nstrain/year, 10-9/year), 1 to 2 orders of magnitude lower than rates observed across the major microplate boundaries. Lower strain rates may exist elsewhere withi the microplates but are only resolved in Anatolia, where extension of 13 ?? 4 nstrain/ year is required by the data. Our results suggest that despite the detailed complexity of active continental deformation revealed by seismicity, active faulting, fault geomorphology, and earthquake fault plane solutions, continental tectonics, at least in the Aegean, is to first order very similar to global plate tectonics and obeys the same simple kinematic rules. Although the widespread distribution of Aegean seismicity and active faulting might suggest a rather spatially homogeneous seismic hazard, the focusing of deformation near microplate boundaries implies the highest hazard is comparably localized.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2004

Crustal deformation measurements in Guerrero, Mexico

GPS measurements of crustal deformation in Guerrero, southern Mexico, include surveys collected between 1992 and 2001 as well as continuous GPS measurements at a few sites. These geodetic observations are used to calculate interseismic deformation rates and assess the presence and possible location of transient deformation during the period encompassing 1992.25 to 2001.75. The data are used to examine transient deformation in 1998 previously described from data at a single site by Lowry et al. [2001]. Survey measurements and continuous data from a site near Popocate??petl volcano confirm the 1998 transient, and survey data also suggest another transient occurred following the 14 September 1995 (Mw = 7.3) Copala earthquake. All of the available GPS position estimates have been inverted for a combined model of slip during each event plus the steady state slip on the plate interface. Modeling of the steady state deformation rates confirms that the Guerrero seismic gap is partially frictionally locked at depths shallower than about 25 km and accumulating strain that may eventually be released in a great earthquake. The data also suggest that there is frictional coupling to much greater (>40 km) depths, which releases more frequently in aseismic slip events. The locations and sizes of the transient events are only partially constrained by the available data. However, the transient models which best fit the GPS coordinate time series suggest that aseismic slip was centered downdip of the seismogenic portion of the plate-bounding thrust in both events, and the moment release had equivalent magnitudes Mw = 7.1 + 1.3/-1.0 in 1995-1996 and 7.1 + 0.4/-0.1 in 1998. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2004

New insights on stress rotations from a forward regional model of the San Andreas fault system near its Big Bend in southern California

Understanding the stress field surrounding and driving active fault systems is an important component of mechanistic seismic hazard assessment. We develop and present results from a time-forward three-dimensional (3-D) model of the San Andreas fault system near its Big Bend in southern California. The model boundary conditions are assessed by comparing model and observed tectonic regimes. The model of earthquake generation along two fault segments is used to target measurable properties (e.g., stress orientations, heat flow) that may allow inferences on the stress state on the faults. It is a quasi-static model, where GPS-constrained tectonic loading drives faults modeled as mostly sealed viscoelastic bodies embedded in an elastic half-space subjected to compaction and shear creep. A transpressive tectonic regime develops southwest of the model bend as a result of the tectonic loading and migrates toward the bend because of fault slip. The strength of the model faults is assessed on the basis of stress orientations, stress drop, and overpressures, showing a departure in the behavior of 3-D finite faults compared to models of 1-D or homogeneous infinite faults. At a smaller scale, stress transfers from fault slip transiently induce significant perturbations in the local stress tensors (where the slip profile is very heterogeneous). These stress rotations disappear when subsequent model earthquakes smooth the slip profile. Maps of maximum absolute shear stress emphasize both that (1) future models should include a more continuous representation of the faults and (2) that hydrostatically pressured intact rock is very difficult to break when no material weakness is considered. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2004

Precise relocation of earthquakes following the 15 June 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo (Philippines)

The 15 June 1991 climactic eruption of Mount Pinatubo (Philippines) was followed by intense seismicity that remained at a high level for several months. We located 10,839 events recorded between 1 July and mid-December 1991. In contrast to the preeruptive seismicity which was focused in two groups below the summit area, posteruptive events were widely distributed below and around the volcano. The classification of the events indicates the presence of several large multiplets, and the application of relative relocation techniques to the similar events by calculating high-precision delays between traces outlines a number of clear seismogenic structures. We used different methods to confirm the validity of our results; these tests indicate that reliable features can be detected with a small monitoring network. While the main cluster of activity can be attributed to an intrusive process starting from below the 15 June crater, the volcanic origin of the seismic activity in the other areas is more difficult to establish. Away from the summit, relocations define streaks or planes which are oriented predominantly southwest-northeast, with in several cases the presence of northwest-southeast conjugate structures. Most of the composite focal mechanisms that we could determine indicate predominantly strike-slip, right-lateral faulting. Our results indicate that most of the seismicity that occurred after the 15 June eruption is related to the east-west regional compressional stress field related to the subduction. We suggest that the regional stress field induces seismicity along new or preexisting faults in the medium surrounding the volcano where the stress field was locally disturbed by the volcanic eruption.

Mount Pinatubo↗
USGS2005

Estimating hydrodynamic roughness in a wave-dominated environment with a high-resolution acoustic Doppler profiler

Hydrodynamic roughness is a critical parameter for characterizing bottom drag in boundary layers, and it varies both spatially and temporally due to variation in grain size, bedforms, and saltating sediment. In this paper we investigate temporal variability in hydrodynamic roughness using velocity profiles in the bottom boundary layer measured with a high-resolution acoustic Doppler profiler (PCADP). The data were collected on the ebb-tidal delta off Grays Harbor, Washington, in a mean water depth of 9 m. Significant wave height ranged from 0.5 to 3 m. Bottom roughness has rarely been determined from hydrodynamic measurements under conditions such as these, where energetic waves and medium-to-fine sand produce small bedforms. Friction velocity due to current u*c and apparent bottom roughness z0a were determined from the PCADP burst mean velocity profiles using the law of the wall. Bottom roughness kB was estimated by applying the Grant-Madsen model for wave-current interaction iteratively until the model u*c converged with values determined from the data. The resulting kB values ranged over 3 orders of magnitude (10-1 to 10-4 m) and varied inversely with wave orbital diameter. This range of kB influences predicted bottom shear stress considerably, suggesting that the use of time-varying bottom roughness could significantly improve the accuracy of sediment transport models. Bedform height was estimated from kB and is consistent with both ripple heights predicted by empirical models and bedforms in sonar images collected during the experiment. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2004

Suspended sediment and hydrodynamics above mildly sloped long wave ripples

We investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of suspended sediment and the associated hydrodynamics over mildly sloped long wave ripples on the inner shelf. These bedforms had wavelengths of approximately 1 m and heights of approximately 5 cm, in a mean water depth of 4 m. The vertical and temporal structures of the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) are consistent with the entrainment of sediment on the offshore flank of the ripple, and rapid vertical mixing at the time of flow reversal, followed by advection onshore by the onshore fluid motion. This work confirms that the mechanism for sediment suspension above low-amplitude, long wave ripples is similar to the vortex formation process expected over steeper vortex ripples. Numerical simulations of the flow using the Dune2d model indicate that a separated rotational flow structure is generated at the flank of the ripple on the seaward side of the ripple crest, near the time of flow reversal. The simulations indicate that only one vortex is formed during each wave period, in agreement with the field observations. This asymmetry is due mainly to the presence of an offshore mean near-bed current of approximately 6 to 8 cm/s. The SSC is calculated by the model and compared to the field observations. A hydraulic bed roughness of 10 to 15 median grain diameters ( d 50 ) was used in order to match the model prediction to the observed SSC approximately 1 cm above the seabed (cab). However, the modeled SSC and turbulent kinetic energy were significantly lower than the field observations at elevations exceeding approximately 2 cab.

North Carolina↗
USGS2004

Effects of wave shape on sheet flow sediment transport

A two-phase model is implemented to study the effects of wave shape on the transport of coarse-grained sediment in the sheet flow regime. The model is based on balance equations for the average mass, momentum, and fluctuation energy for both the fluid and sediment phases. Model simulations indicate that the responses of the sheet flow, such as the velocity profiles, the instantaneous bed shear stress, the sediment flux, and the total amount of the mobilized sediment, cannot be fully parameterized by quasi-steady free-stream velocity and may be correlated with the magnitude of local horizontal pressure gradient (or free-stream acceleration). A net sediment flux in the direction of wave advance is obtained for both skewed and saw-tooth wave shapes typical of shoaled and breaking waves. The model further suggests that at critical values of the horizontal pressure gradient, there is a failure event within the bed that mobilizes more sediment into the mobile sheet and enhances the sediment flux. Preliminary attempts to parameterize the total bed shear stress and the total sediment flux appear promising. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2004

Wave run-up on a high-energy dissipative beach

Because of highly dissipative conditions and strong alongshore gradients in foreshore beach morphology, wave run-up data collected along the central Oregon coast during February 1996 stand in contrast to run-up data currently available in the literature. During a single data run lasting approximately 90 min, the significant vertical run-up elevation varied by a factor of 2 along the 1.6 km study site, ranging from 26 to 61% of the offshore significant wave height, and was found to be linearly dependent on the local foreshore beach slope that varied by a factor of 5. Run-up motions on this high-energy dissipative beach were dominated by infragravity (low frequency) energy with peak periods of approximately 230 s. Incident band energy levels were 2.5 to 3 orders of magnitude lower than the low-frequency spectral peaks and typically 96% of the run-up variance was in the infragravity band. A broad region of the run-up spectra exhibited an f-4 roll off, typical of saturation, extending to frequencies lower than observed in previous studies. The run-up spectra were dependent on beach slope with spectra for steeper foreshore slopes shifted toward higher frequencies than spectra for shallower foreshore slopes. At infragravity frequencies, run-up motions were coherent over alongshore length scales in excess of 1 km, significantly greater than decorrelation length scales on moderate to reflective beaches. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2004

Effects of the fungicides mancozeb and chlorothalonil on fluxes of CO2, N2O, and CH4 in a fertilized Colorado grassland soil

[1] Management of agricultural soil plays an important role in present and future atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and methane (CH 4 ). Pesticides are used as management tools in crop production, but little is known about their effects on soil‐atmosphere exchange of CO 2 , N 2 O, and CH 4 . Field studies described in this paper determined the effect of two commonly used fungicides, mancozeb and chlorothalonil, on trace gas exchange. Separate experimental plots, 1 m 2 , were established in nitrogen fertilized no‐tilled native grassland and tilled soils with and without fungicide application. Two studies were conducted. The first study was initiated in June 1999 and lasted for 1 year with monthly flux measurements from tilled and no‐till soils. The second study commenced in August 2001 with twelve weekly measurements from tilled soils only. From both studies mancozeb suppressed emissions of CO 2 and N 2 O in the tilled soil by an average of 28% and 47%, respectively. This suppression corresponded with efficacy periods of 14–29 and 56–77 days, respectively. From the no‐till soils mancozeb decreased CO 2 and N 2 O emissions by 33% and 80% for periods of 29 and 94 days, respectively. Mancozeb inhibited CH 4 consumption in the first study by 46% and 71% in the tilled and no‐till soil for periods of 8 and 29 days, respectively, but had no effect in the second study. From both studies chlorothalonil initially suppressed CO 2 and N 2 O emissions and enhanced CH 4 uptake in the tilled soil by an average of 37%, 40%, and 115%, respectively. These effects corresponded with efficacy periods of 14–29, 21–56, and 1–14 days, respectively. In the no‐till soil chlorothalonil inhibited CO 2 and N 2 O emissions and enhanced CH 4 uptake by 29%, 48%, and 86% for periods of 29, 56, and 56 days, respectively. Following the initial period of suppression, chlorothalonil subsequently enhanced N 2 O emissions in the tilled soil by an average of 51% and in the no‐till soil by 81% before returning to near background levels. The beginning of increased N 2 O emissions from the chlorothalonil‐amended plots corresponded with a maximum soil concentration of the chlorothalonil degradate, 4‐hydroxy‐2, 5, 6‐trichloroisophthalonitrile. The site specific global warming potential (GWP) resulting from the fluxes of CO 2 , N 2 O, and CH 4 from all soils was determined to decrease by an average 26% and 21% as a result of a single application of mancozeb or chlorothalonil, respectively. The decrease in CO 2 emissions in the fungicide‐amended plots potentially could result in the conservation of as much as 1200 and 2400 kg C ha −1 yr −1 organic carbon in the tilled and no‐till plots, respectively. Therefore it is feasible that application of certain fungicides to agricultural soil might lead to enhanced soil carbon sequestration and thus have additional positive effects on atmospheric CO 2 concentrations.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗
USGS2004

Effects of the herbicides prosulfuron and metolachlor on fluxes of CO2,N2O, and CH4 in a fertilized Colorado grassland soil

The effect that pesticides have on trace gas production and consumption in agricultural soils is often overlooked. Independent field and laboratory experiments were used to measure the effects that the commonly used herbicides prosulfuron and metolachlor have on trace gas fluxes (CO 2 , N 2 O, and CH 4 ) from fertilized soil of the Colorado shortgrass steppe. Separate sample plots (1 m 2 ) on tilled and no-till soil at the sites included the following treatments: 1) a control without fertilizer or herbicide, 2) a fertilized (NH 4 NO 3 equivalent to 244 kg ha −1 ) control without herbicide, 3) and fertilized plots amended with an herbicide (prosulfuron equivalent to 0.46 kg ha −1 57% by weight active ingredient or metolachlor equivalent to 5.7 L ha −1 , 82.4% by weight active ingredient). During an initial study of one year duration, measurement of gas exchange revealed that prosulfuron-amendment stimulated N 2 O emissions and CH 4 consumption by as much as 1600% and 1300% during a single measurement, respectively. During a second set of flux measurements beginning in August 2001, more frequent weekly measurements were made during a twelve week period. From this second study an increased N 2 O efflux and CH 4 uptake occurred after a 7-week lag period that persisted for about 5 weeks. These changes in gas flux amounted to an overall increase of 41% and 30% for N 2 O emission and CH 4 consumption, respectively. The co-occurrence of stimulated N 2 O and CH 4 fluxes suggests a similar cause that is related to prosulfuron degradation. Evidence suggested that prosulfuron degradation stimulated microbial activity responsible for trace gas flux. Ultimately, prosulfuron-amendment led to an ∼50% reduction in the global warming potential from N 2 O and CH 4 fluxes at this field site, which is equivalent to a reduction of the global warming potential of 0.18 mols CO 2 m −2 d −1 from these gases. Metolachlor application did not significantly affect the trace gas fluxes measured. These results demonstrate the potential impact that pesticides have on trace gas fluxes from agricultural soils, which could mean that the effects of other agricultural practices have been over or under estimated.

Colorado↗
USGS2004

Frequency and initiation of debris flows in Grand Canyon, Arizona

Debris flows from 740 tributaries transport sediment into the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona, creating rapids that control its longitudinal profile. Debris flows mostly occur when runoff triggers failures in colluvium by a process termed “the fire hose effect.” Debris flows originate from a limited number of geologic strata, almost exclusively shales or other clay‐rich, fine‐grained formations. Observations from 1984 through 2003 provide a 20 year record of all debris flows that reached the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, and repeat photography provides a 100 year record of debris flows from 147 tributaries. Observed frequencies are 5.1 events/year from 1984 to 2003, and historic frequencies are 5.0 events/year from 1890 to 1983. Logistic regression is used to model historic frequencies based on drainage basin parameters observed to control debris flow initiation and transport. From 5 to 7 of the 16 parameters evaluated are statistically significant, including drainage area, basin relief, and the height of and gradient below debris flow source areas, variables which reflect transport distance and potential energy. The aspect of the river channel, which at least partially reflects storm movement within the canyon, is also significant. Model results are used to calculate the probability of debris flow occurrence at the river over a century for all 740 tributaries. Owing to the variability of underlying geomorphic controls, the distribution of this probability is not uniform among tributaries of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon.

Arizona↗
USGS2004

Granular avalanches across irregular three-dimensional terrain: 2. Experimental tests

Scaling considerations indicate that miniature experiments can be used to test models of granular avalanches in which the effects of intergranular fluid and cohesion are negligible. To test predictions of a granular avalanche model described in a companion paper, we performed bench top experiments involving avalanches of dry sand across irregular basal topography that mimicked the complexity of natural terrain. The experiments employed a novel method of laser-assisted cartography to map the three-dimensional morphology of rapidly moving avalanches, thereby providing high-resolution data for comparison with model output. Model input consisted of two material properties (angles of internal and basal Coulomb friction of the sand), which were measured in independent tests, and of initial and boundary conditions that characterized the geometry of the experimental apparatus. Experimental results demonstrate that the model accurately predicts not only the gross behavior but also many details of avalanche motion, from initiation to deposition. We attribute this accuracy to a mathematical and computational formulation that conserves mass and momentum in three-dimensional physical space and satisfies the Coulomb equation in three-dimensional stress space. Our results support the hypothesis that a Coulomb proportionality between shear and normal stresses applies in moderately rapid granular flows and that complicated constitutive postulates are unnecessary if momentum conservation is strictly enforced in continuum avalanche models. Furthermore, predictions of our Coulomb continuum model contrast with those of a Coulomb point mass model, illustrating the importance of multidimensional modeling and model testing.

Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface↗
USGS2004

Granular avalanches across irregular three-dimensional terrain: 1. Theory and computation

To establish a theoretical basis for predicting and interpreting the behavior of rapid mass movements on Earth's surface, we develop and test a new computational model for gravity-driven motion of granular avalanches across irregular, three-dimensional (3-D) terrain. The principles embodied in the model are simple and few: continuum mass and momentum conservation and intergranular stress generation governed by Coulomb friction. However, significant challenges result from the necessity of satisfying these principles when deforming avalanches interact with steep and highly variable 3-D terrain. We address these challenges in four ways. (1) We formulate depth-averaged governing equations that are referenced to a rectangular Cartesian coordinate system (with z vertical) and that account explicitly for the effect of nonzero vertical accelerations on depth-averaged mass and momentum fluxes and stress states. (2) We compute fluxes of mass and momentum across vertical cell boundaries using a high-resolution finite volume method and Roe-type Riemann solver. Our algorithm incorporates flux difference splitting, an entropy correction for the flux, and eigenvector decomposition to embed the effects of driving and resisting forces in Riemann solutions. (3) We use a finite element method and avalanche displacements predicted by Riemann solutions to compute Coulomb stresses conjugate to the displacements in 3-D stress space. (4) We test the model output against analytical solutions, a sand cone conceptual experiment, and (in a companion paper) data from detailed laboratory experiments. Model results illustrate a complex interplay of basal traction and internal stress, and they successfully predict not only the gross behavior but also many details of avalanche motion from initiation to deposition.

Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface↗
USGS2004

A physical model for strain accumulation in the San Francisco Bay region: Stress evolution since 1838

Understanding of the behavior of plate boundary zones has progressed to the point where reasonably comprehensive physical models can predict their evolution. The San Andreas fault system in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) is dominated by a few major faults whose behavior over about one earthquake cycle is fairly well understood. By combining the past history of large ruptures on SFBR faults with a recently proposed physical model of strain accumulation in the SFBR, we derive the evolution of regional stress from 1838 until the present. This effort depends on (1) an existing compilation of the source properties of historic and contemporary SFBR earthquakes based on documented shaking, geodetic data, and seismic data (Bakun, 1999) and (2) a few key parameters of a simple regional viscoelastic coupling model constrained by recent GPS data (Pollitz and Nyst, 2004). Although uncertainties abound in the location, magnitude, and fault geometries of historic ruptures and the physical model relies on gross simplifications, the resulting stress evolution model is sufficiently detailed to provide a useful window into the past stress history. In the framework of Coulomb failure stress, we find that virtually all M ??? 5.8 earthquakes prior to 1906 and M ??? 5.5 earthquakes after 1906 are consistent with stress triggering from previous earthquakes. These events systematically lie in zones of predicted stress concentration elevated 5-10 bars above the regional average. The SFBR is predicted to have emerged from the 1906 "shadow" in about 1980, consistent with the acceleration in regional seismicity at that time. The stress evolution model may be a reliable indicator of the most likely areas to experience M ??? 5.5 shocks in the future.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2004

Stress interaction between subduction earthquakes and forearc strike-slip faults: Modeling and application to the northern Caribbean plate boundary

Strike-slip faults in the forearc region of a subduction zone often present significant seismic hazard because of their proximity to population centers. We explore the interaction between thrust events on the subduction interface and strike-slip faults within the forearc region using three-dimensional models of static Coulomb stress change. Model results reveal that subduction earthquakes with slip vectors subparallel to the trench axis enhance the Coulomb stress on strike-slip faults adjacent to the trench but reduce the stress on faults farther back in the forearc region. In contrast, subduction events with slip vectors perpendicular to the trench axis enhance the Coulomb stress on strike-slip faults farther back in the forearc, while reducing the stress adjacent to the trench. A significant contribution to Coulomb stress increase on strike-slip faults in the back region of the forearc comes from "unclamping" of the fault, i.e., reduction in normal stress due to thrust motion on the subduction interface. We argue that although Coulomb stress changes from individual subduction earthquakes are ephemeral, their cumulative effects on the pattern of lithosphere deformation in the forearc region are significant. We use the Coulomb stress models to explain the contrasting deformation pattern between two adjacent segments of the Caribbean subduction zone. Subduction earthquakes with slip vectors nearly perpendicular to the Caribbean trench axis is dominant in the Hispaniola segment, where the strike-slip faults are more than 60 km inland from the trench. In contrast, subduction slip motion is nearly parallel to the Caribbean trench axis along the Puerto Rico segment, where the strike-slip fault is less than 15 km from the trench. This observed jump from a strike-slip fault close to the trench axis in the Puerto Rico segment to the inland faults in Hispaniola is explained by different distributions of Coulomb stress in the forearc region of the two segments, as a result of the change from the nearly trench parallel slip on the Puerto Rico subduction interface to the more perpendicular subduction slip beneath Hispaniola. The observations and modeling suggest that subduction-induced strike-slip seismic hazard to Puerto Rico may be smaller than previously assumed but the hazard to Hispaniola remains high. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2005

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar study of Okmok volcano, Alaska, 1992-2003: Magma supply dynamics and postemplacement lava flow deformation

Okmok volcano, located in the central Aleutian arc, Alaska, is a dominantly basaltic complex topped with a 10-km-wide caldera that formed circa 2.05 ka. Okmok erupted several times during the 20th century, most recently in 1997; eruptions in 1945, 1958, and 1997 produced lava flows within the caldera. We used 80 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images (interferograms) to study transient deformation of the volcano before, during, and after the 1997 eruption. Point source models suggest that a magma reservoir at a depth of 3.2 km below sea level, located beneath the center of the caldera and about 5 km northeast of the 1997 vent, is responsible for observed volcano-wide deformation. The preeruption uplift rate decreased from about 10 cm yr −1 during 1992–1993 to 2 ∼ 3 cm yr −1 during 1993–1995 and then to about −1 ∼ −2 cm yr −1 during 1995–1996. The posteruption inflation rate generally decreased with time during 1997–2001, but increased significantly during 2001–2003. By the summer of 2003, 30 ∼ 60% of the magma volume lost from the reservoir in the 1997 eruption had been replenished. Interferograms for periods before the 1997 eruption indicate consistent subsidence of the surface of the 1958 lava flows, most likely due to thermal contraction. Interferograms for periods after the eruption suggest at least four distinct deformation processes: (1) volcano-wide inflation due to replenishment of the shallow magma reservoir, (2) subsidence of the 1997 lava flows, most likely due to thermal contraction, (3) deformation of the 1958 lava flows due to loading by the 1997 flows, and (4) continuing subsidence of 1958 lava flows buried beneath 1997 flows. Our results provide insights into the postemplacement behavior of lava flows and have cautionary implications for the interpretation of inflation patterns at active volcanoes.

Alaska↗
USGS2004

Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius

We describe an event tree scheme to quantitatively estimate both long- and short-term volcanic hazard. The procedure is based on a Bayesian approach that produces a probability estimation of any possible event in which we are interested and can make use of all available information including theoretical models, historical and geological data, and monitoring observations. The main steps in the procedure are (1) to estimate an a priori probability distribution based upon theoretical knowledge, (2) to modify that using past data, and (3) to modify it further using current monitoring data. The scheme allows epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties to be dealt with in a formal way, through estimation of probability distributions at each node of the event tree. We then describe an application of the method to the case of Mount Vesuvius. Although the primary intent of the example is to illustrate the methodology, one result of this application merits special mention. The present emergency response plan for Mount Vesuvius is referenced to a maximum expected event (MEE), the largest out of all the possible eruptions within the next few decades. Our calculation suggest that there is a nonnegligible (1-20%) chance that the next eruption could be larger than that stipulated in the present MEE. The methodology allows all assumptions and thresholds to be clearly identified and provides a rational means for their revision if new data or information are obtained. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Mount Vesuvius↗