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USGS2020

Isotopic and geochemical assessment of the sensitivity of groundwater resources of Guam, Mariana Islands, to intra- and inter-annual variations in hydroclimate

Assessing the sensitivity of groundwater systems to hydroclimate variability is critical to sustainable management of the water resources of Guam, US territory. We assess spatial and temporal variability of isotopic and geochemical compositions of vadose and phreatic groundwater sampled from cave drip sites and production wells, respectively, to better understand the vulnerability of the freshwater lens on Guam to variability in hydroclimate. We independently evaluate the existing conceptual model of the Northern Guam Lens Aquifer that is largely based on physical, as opposed to geochemical, observations. Sampling was conducted from 2008 to 2015, over which rainfall gradually increased. Major ion geochemistry and Sr isotope values of groundwater show varying influence from soil, limestone bedrock, and seawater. Geochemical modeling that can explain spatial variability in groundwater Na+ and Mg2+ concentrations and Sr/Ca and 87Sr/86 Sr values indicates that groundwater compositions are dominantly controlled by mixing of freshwater with seawater and water-rock interaction. Differences between amount-weighted annual average precipitation δ18 O values and groundwater δ18 O values indicate a recharge bias toward the wet season, consistent with other tropical carbonate island aquifer settings. Intra- and inter-annual variations in Na+ concentrations and δ18 O values in groundwater reflect sensitivity of recharge to seasonal variations in rainfall amount and changes in annual rainfall amounts. Our results indicate the influence of multiple modes of recharge on groundwater compositions and spatial variability in the sensitivity of groundwater to seawater mixing. This sensitivity of the freshwater lens points to the vulnerability of groundwater resources to changes in recharge associated with climate, land-use change, and increases in population.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2022

Demographic and environmental correlates of home ranges and long-distance movements of Mohave ground squirrels

Space use by mammals can differ among age-classes, sexes, or seasons, and these processes are recognized as adaptive behavioral strategies. Semi-fossorial ground squirrels, in particular, have shown age- and sex-specific patterns in their aboveground movement behaviors. We studied space use of Mohave ground squirrels ( Xerospermophilus mohavensis ) at the Freeman Gulch study site in the central region of their range in the Mojave Desert, California. We documented the timing of their full annual cycle, investigated correlates of size of home ranges of adults and distance of long-distance movements by juveniles, and evaluated whether juvenile body masses and movements were related to interannual climatic variation. Adult males emerged from burrows and entered hibernation sooner than did adult females. Home ranges were larger for males ( ⁠ x ¯ "> x ¯ x¯ ± SD = 0.50 ± 0.40 km 2 ) than females (0.05 ± 0.03 km 2 ), especially during the mating season. Maximum distances moved by juveniles did not differ significantly between males (1.6 ± 2.3 km) and females (1.0 ± 1.8 km), and both sexes were equally likely to travel long distances from natal sites. The longest-distance movement we documented was 7.7 km by a juvenile male. Juveniles born in a year of low vegetation productivity gained significantly less mass (97 ± 7 g) and traveled shorter distances than those born in a year of higher vegetation productivity (177 ± 20 g). Our findings were similar to those documented in the Coso Range study site in the northern region of the geographic range of the species, indicating that movement patterns are similar range-wide. Mohave ground squirrels responded strongly to climate variation, and global climate change will likely result in a northward shift in suitable habitats. Informed conservation planning, therefore, will be essential for this rare, declining species.

California↗

USGS2020

The influence of climate variability on the accuracy of NHD perennial and non-perennial stream classifications

National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) stream permanence classifications (SPC; perennial, intermittent, and ephemeral) are widely used for data visualization and applied science, and have implications for resource policy and management. NHD SPC were assigned using a combination of topographic field surveys and interviews with local residents. However, previous studies indicate that non‐NHD, in situ streamflow observations (NNO) frequently disagree with NHD SPC. We hypothesized that differences in annual climate conditions between map creation years and the years NNO were collected contributed to disagreement between NNO and NHD SPC. We compared NHD SPC to 10,055 NNO (classified as “wet” or “dry”) collected in the Pacific Northwest between 1977 and 2015. Annual climate conditions were described with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Stream order was added as a covariate to account for different effects along the stream network. NHD SPC agreed with 80.5% of NNO. “Dry” NNO were five times more likely to disagree with NHD than “wet” NNO ( p < 0.0001). Disagreement was greatest on first‐order streams. When NHD SPC were collected during a wetter period than NNO the probability of disagreement increased by a factor of 1.17 ( p < 0.0001) per unit difference in PDSI. The influence of climate on disagreements between NNO and NHD SPC provides support for the continued development of dynamic models representing SPC as opposed to static NHD classifications.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2014

Small crater modification on Meridiani Planum and implications for erosion rates and climate change on Mars

A morphometric and morphologic catalog of ~100 small craters imaged by the Opportunity rover over the 33.5 km traverse between Eagle and Endeavour craters on Meridiani Planum shows craters in six stages of degradation that range from fresh and blocky to eroded and shallow depressions ringed by planed off rim blocks. The age of each morphologic class from <50–200 ka to ~20 Ma has been determined from the size-frequency distribution of craters in the catalog, the retention age of small craters on Meridiani Planum, and the age of the latest phase of ripple migration. The rate of degradation of the craters has been determined from crater depth, rim height, and ejecta removal over the class age. These rates show a rapid decrease from ~1 m/Myr for craters < 1 Ma to ~ <0.1 m/Myr for craters 10–20 Ma, which can be explained by topographic diffusion with modeled diffusivities of ~10 −6  m 2 /yr. In contrast to these relatively fast, short-term erosion rates, previously estimated average erosion rates on Mars over ~100 Myr and 3 Gyr timescales from the Amazonian and Hesperian are of order < 0.01 m/Myr, which is 3–4 orders of magnitude slower than typical terrestrial rates. Erosion rates during the Middle-Late Noachian averaged over ~250 Myr, and ~700 Myr intervals are around 1 m/Myr, comparable to slow terrestrial erosion rates calculated over similar timescales. This argues for a wet climate before ~3 Ga in which liquid water was the erosional agent, followed by a dry environment dominated by slow eolian erosion.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2016

An empirical assessment of which inland floods can be managed

Riverine flooding is a significant global issue. Although it is well documented that the influence of landscape structure on floods decreases as flood size increases, studies that define a threshold flood-return period, above which landscape features such as topography, land cover and impoundments can curtail floods, are lacking. Further, the relative influences of natural versus built features on floods is poorly understood. Assumptions about the types of floods that can be managed have considerable implications for the cost-effectiveness of decisions to invest in transforming land cover (e.g., reforestation) and in constructing structures (e.g., storm-water ponds) to control floods. This study defines parameters of floods for which changes in landscape structure can have an impact. We compare nine flood-return periods across 31 watersheds with widely varying topography and land cover in the southeastern United States, using long-term hydrologic records (≥20 years). We also assess the effects of built flow-regulating features (best management practices and artificial water bodies) on selected flood metrics across urban watersheds. We show that landscape features affect magnitude and duration of only those floods with return periods ≤10 years, which suggests that larger floods cannot be managed effectively by manipulating landscape structure. Overall, urban watersheds exhibited larger (270 m 3 /s) but quicker (0.41 days) floods than non-urban watersheds (50 m 3 /s and 1.5 days). However, urban watersheds with more flow-regulating features had lower flood magnitudes (154 m 3 /s), but similar flood durations (0.55 days), compared to urban watersheds with fewer flow-regulating features (360 m 3 /s and 0.23 days). Our analysis provides insight into the magnitude, duration and count of floods that can be curtailed by landscape structure and its management. Our findings are relevant to other areas with similar climate, topography, and land use, and can help ensure that investments in flood management are made wisely after considering the limitations of landscape features to regulate floods.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2015

Groundwater recharge assessment at local and episodic scale in a soil mantled perched karst aquifer in southern Italy

Groundwater recharge assessment of karst aquifers, at various spatial and temporal scales, is a major scientific topic of current importance, since these aquifers play an essential role for both socio-economic development and fluvial ecosystems. In this study, groundwater recharge was estimated at local and episodic scales in a representative perched karst aquifer in a region of southern Italy with a Mediterranean climate. The research utilized measurements of precipitation, air temperature, soil water content, and water-table depth, obtained in 2008 at the Acqua della Madonna test area (Terminio Mount karst aquifer, Campania region). At this location the aquifer is overlain by ash-fall pyroclastic soils. The Episodic Master Recession (EMR) method, an improved version of the Water Table Fluctuation (WTF) method, was applied to estimate the amount of recharge generated episodically by individual rainfall events. The method also quantifies the amount of precipitation generating each recharge episode, thus permitting calculation of the Recharge to the Precipitation Ratio (RPR) on a storm-by-storm basis. Depending on the seasonally varying air temperature, evapotranspiration, and precipitation patterns, calculated values of RPR varied between 35% and 97% among the individual episodes. A multiple linear correlation of the RPR with both the average intensity of recharging rainfall events and the antecedent soil water content was calculated. Given the relatively easy measurability of precipitation and soil water content, such an empirical model would have great hydrogeological and practical utility. It would facilitate short-term forecasting of recharge in karst aquifers of the Mediterranean region and other aquifers with similar hydrogeological characteristics. By establishing relationships between the RPR and climate-dependent variables such as average storm intensity, it would facilitate prediction of climate-change effects on groundwater recharge. The EMR methodology could further be applied to other aquifers for evaluating the relationship of recharge to various hydrometeorological and hydrogeological processes.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2023

Modeling groundwater-level responses to multiple stresses using transfer-function models and wavelet analysis in a coastal aquifer system

In coastal aquifers, dynamic stresses such as climate forcings, groundwater withdrawals, and ocean tidal fluctuations cause nonlinear responses to groundwater levels. Such responses to the stresses impact groundwater resources and related flooding and infrastructure risks at multiple scales. We used time-series models such as transfer-function models and wavelet analysis to quantify the relative contribution of these stresses to groundwater-level fluctuation in wells from the unconfined and confined aquifers in an Atlantic coastal aquifer. Climate forcings, such as precipitation and temperature, explained most of the groundwater-level variation for wells in the unconfined aquifer, whereas groundwater withdrawals were the dominant driver of groundwater levels for wells in the confined aquifer. The impact of groundwater withdrawals also was detected in several wells in the unconfined aquifer. Although the influence of ocean tides on groundwater levels commonly is observed in coastal aquifers, we found that daily groundwater withdrawals can obscure the semi-diurnal coherence signal of the two series. The magnitude of groundwater-level fluctuation that could be explained solely by tides was minor compared to that explained by climate or withdrawal stresses. Transfer-function modeling showed seasonal withdrawals from wells in confined aquifers had a significant, yet heterogeneous influence on groundwater levels in coastal aquifers, which highlights climate and withdrawals as key compounding stresses in coastal hydrology. This study demonstrates the value of time-series approaches to advance characterization of groundwater systems in areas with limited hydrogeologic parameter information.

Virginia↗

USGS2024

Evaluating seawater intrusion forecast uncertainty under climate change in the Pajaro Valley, California

Climate change and climate variability impacts such as rising sea levels have the potential to exacerbate seawater intrusion and the strain on coastal freshwater resources in already stressed groundwater basins such as those in the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin, California. Regional hydrologic models are often coupled with climate projections to forecast future hydrologic conditions and inform adaptive resources management strategies. However, there is high uncertainty in the future projections of water resources due to uncertainties from downscaling global general circulation models (GCMs) to local scale climate change projections, future land use changes, and the inherent uncertainty of developed hydrologic models. Future climate projections and the magnitude of their influence on modeled hydrologic drivers are highly variable. Therefore, to develop a forecast model, an ensemble of different projections can be used to capture a wider range of basin responses and the associated uncertainties in the modeled forecasts. Understanding the reliability and uncertainty of forecasts is important for developing climate adaptation strategies such as developing protective thresholds, particularly at the basin scale where the impacts are felt, and adaptation is implemented. To demonstrate this, an uncertainty analysis of groundwater level and seawater intrusion forecasts for the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin was performed using an ensemble of three future climate projections with the Pajaro Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (PVIHM) and the first-order second moment (FOSM) method. FOSM uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasts across a multi-GCM climate ensemble provides an upper and lower bound of potential impacts of climate change on sustainability targets related to mitigating seawater intrusion. The groundwater level forecasts’ narrow range of variability can help policymakers in adaptation planning by constraining possible outcomes to a focused range for risk-management decisions. However, less than one-third of groundwater level forecasts met the current protection thresholds to prevent chronic lowering of groundwater. Therefore, sustainability targets may need to be reassessed. Relative to groundwater level changes, the seawater intrusion forecasts had larger uncertainty due to the GCM climate projections and the simulated hydrologic response that were compounded by the propagation of scaling and bias from the GCMs and model simplifications in simulating the coastal boundary.

California↗

USGS2003

Carbon dynamics and land-use choices: building a regional-scale multidisciplinary model

Policy enabling tropical forests to approach their potential contribution to global-climate-change mitigation requires forecasts of land use and carbon storage on a large scale over long periods. In this paper, we present an integrated modeling methodology that addresses these needs. We model the dynamics of the human land-use system and of C pools contained in each ecosystem, as well as their interactions. The model is national scale, and is currently applied in a preliminary way to Costa Rica using data spanning a period of over 50 years. It combines an ecological process model, parameterized using field and other data, with an economic model, estimated using historical data to ensure a close link to actual behavior. These two models are linked so that ecological conditions affect land-use choices and vice versa. The integrated model predicts land use and its consequences for C storage for policy scenarios. These predictions can be used to create baselines, reward sequestration, and estimate the value in both environmental and economic terms of including C sequestration in tropical forests as part of the efforts to mitigate global climate change. The model can also be used to assess the benefits from costly activities to increase accuracy and thus reduce errors and their societal costs.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2002

Using satellite telemetry to define spatial population structure in polar bears in the Norwegian and western Russian Arctic

1. Animal populations, defined by geographical areas within a species’ distribution where population dynamics are largely regulated by births and deaths rather than by migration from surrounding areas, may be the correct unit for wildlife management. However, in heterogeneous landscapes varying habitat quality may yield subpopulations with distinct patterns in resource use and demography significant to the dynamics of populations. 2. To define the spatial population structure of polar bears Ursus maritimus in the Norwegian and western Russian Arctic, and to assess the existence of a shared population between the two countries, we analysed satellite telemetry data obtained from 105 female polar bears over 12 years. 3. Using both cluster analyses and home-range estimation methods, we identified five population units inhabiting areas with different sea-ice characteristics and prey availability. 4. The continuous distribution of polar bear positions indicated that the different subpopulations formed one continuous polar bear population in the Norwegian and western Russian Arctic. Hence, Norway and Russia have a shared management responsibility. 5. The spatial population structure identified will provide a guide for evaluating geographical patterns in polar bear ecology, the dynamics of polar bear–seal relationships and the effects of habitat alteration due to climate change. The work illustrates the importance of defining population borders and subpopulation structure in understanding the dynamics and management of larger animals.

Arctic↗

USGS2007

Molecular ecology of the big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus): Genetic and natural history variation in a hybrid zone

Several geographically distinct mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages of the big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus) have been documented in North America. Individuals from 2 of these lineages, an eastern and a western form, co-occur within maternity colonies in Colorado. The discovery of 2 divergent mtDNA lineages in sympatry prompted a set of questions regarding possible biological differences between haplotypes. We captured big brown bats at maternity roosts in Colorado and recorded data on body size, pelage color, litter size, roosting and overwintering behaviors, and local distributions. Wing biopsies were collected for genetic analysis. The ND2 region of the mtDNA molecule was used to determine lineage of the bats. In addition, nuclear DNA (nDNA) intron 1 of the ??-globin gene was used to determine if mtDNA lineages are hybridizing. Eastern and western mtDNA lineages differed by 10.3% sequence divergence and examination of genetic data suggests recent population expansion for both lineages. Differences in distribution occur along the Colorado Front Range, with an increasing proportion of western haplotypes farther south. Results from nDNA analyses demonstrated hybridization between the 2 lineages. Additionally, no outstanding distinctiveness was found between the mtDNA lineages in natural history characters examined. We speculate that historical climate changes separated this species into isolated eastern and western populations, and that secondary contact with subsequent interbreeding was facilitated by European settlement. ?? 2007 American Society of Mammalogists.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2019

Phosphorus and the Chesapeake Bay: Lingering issues and emerging concerns for agriculture

Hennig Brandt's discovery of phosphorus (P) occurred during the early European colonization of the Chesapeake Bay region. Today, P, an essential nutrient on land and water alike, is one of the principal threats to the health of the bay. Despite widespread implementation of best management practices across the Chesapeake Bay watershed following the implementation in 2010 of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) to improve the health of the bay, P load reductions across the bay's 166,000‐km 2 watershed have been uneven, and dissolved P loads have increased in a number of the bay's tributaries. As the midpoint of the 15‐yr TMDL process has now passed, some of the more stubborn sources of P must now be tackled. For nonpoint agricultural sources, strategies that not only address particulate P but also mitigate dissolved P losses are essential. Lingering concerns include legacy P stored in soils and reservoir sediments, mitigation of P in artificial drainage and stormwater from hotspots and converted farmland, manure management and animal heavy use areas, and critical source areas of P in agricultural landscapes. While opportunities exist to curtail transport of all forms of P, greater attention is required toward adapting P management to new hydrologic regimes and transport pathways imposed by climate change.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2011

Role of climate and invasive species in structuring trout distributions in the interior Columbia River Basin, USA

Recent and projected climate warming trends have prompted interest in impacts on coldwater fishes. We examined the role of climate (temperature and flow regime) relative to geomorphology and land use in determining the observed distributions of three trout species in the interior Columbia River Basin, USA. We considered two native species, cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii ) and bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ), as well as nonnative brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ). We also examined the response of the native species to the presence of brook trout. Analyses were conducted using multilevel logistic regression applied to a geographically broad database of 4165 fish surveys. The results indicated that bull trout distributions were strongly related to climatic factors, and more weakly related to the presence of brook trout and geomorphic variables. Cutthroat trout distributions were weakly related to climate but strongly related to the presence of brook trout. Brook trout distributions were related to both climate and geomorphic variables, including proximity to unconfined valley bottoms. We conclude that brook trout and bull trout are likely to be adversely affected by climate warming, whereas cutthroat trout may be less sensitive. The results illustrate the importance of considering species interactions and flow regime alongside temperature in understanding climate effects on fish.

Columbia River Basin↗

USGS2018

Groundwater modeling

The state of the science and practice in groundwater modeling brings to mind highly sophisticated computer models that are running in parallel on many multi-processor machines. These models are expected to incorporate many different processes of both saturated and unsaturated groundwater flow and transport and possibly the media to which it connects, like surface waters and the atmosphere. We are increasingly aware we cannot study groundwater flow in isolation if we are to make useful predictions of, for instance, the impacts of climate change on the groundwater regime. We have come a long way. Today we are no longer limited to equations for flow toward a well, perhaps near an infinitely long straight canal (method of images), to sandbox models in the laboratory, or to simple steady state models of flow in a single aquifer. We now have computer models that solve groundwater flow and transport in multi-aquifer settings under transient conditions and with a user-friendly graphical user interface that allows widespread use. Additionally, multi-media models are now leaving the research environment and becoming available to mainstream consultants. So in that sense the science of groundwater modeling has matured. The practice of groundwater modeling, however, has also matured. We have come to realize that model output, being a necessary simplification of an unknowably complex natural world, has inherent limitations. That is, a model of reality is not reality itself. There is uncertainty associated with all facets of our model—parameterization, aquifer geometry and discretization, boundary conditions, and future hydrologic drivers such as future pumping regimes and climates. Today a model is now more appropriately seen as a tool that provides a quantitative framework to make supportable forecasts rather than an oracle that gives us all the answers. In this chapter we set out to briefly review the state of the science and practice in modeling. In doing so, we augment existing assessments from the journal Groundwater (e.g., Hunt and Zheng 2012; Langevin and Panday 2012; Molz 2017a,b; White 2017), specifically in terms of modeling approach. An effective modeling approach is critical. If a modeler does not decompose the societal problem correctly, the model will not be fit-for-purpose, no matter how sophisticated the code’s capabilities. Moreover, capabilities of codes will be ever improving; good modeling practices have a timelessness that is more robust. How best to decompose the problem and provide models that are accepted? We lay out here some approaches for today’s applied groundwater modeling. Specifically, we suggest: (1) a step-wise modeling process; (2) including a two-dimensional areal model within this process; (3) keeping abreast of industry standards; and (4) ways to increase acceptance of the models we produce.

Book chapter↗

USGS2015

Soil surface organic layers in Arctic Alaska: spatial distribution, rates of formation, and microclimatic effects

Organic layers of living and dead vegetation cover the ground surface in many permafrost landscapes and play important roles in ecosystem processes. These soil surface organic layers (SSOLs) store large amounts of carbon and buffer the underlying permafrost and its contained carbon from changes in aboveground climate. Understanding the dynamics of SSOLs is a prerequisite for predicting how permafrost and carbon stocks will respond to warming climate. Here we ask three questions about SSOLs in a representative area of the Arctic Foothills region of northern Alaska: (1) What environmental factors control the thickness of SSOLs and the carbon they store? (2) How long do SSOLs take to develop on newly stabilized point bars? (3) How do SSOLs affect temperature in the underlying ground? Results show that SSOL thickness and distribution correlate with elevation, drainage area, vegetation productivity, and incoming solar radiation. A multiple regression model based on these correlations can simulate spatial distribution of SSOLs and estimate the organic carbon stored there. SSOLs develop within a few decades after a new, sandy, geomorphic surface stabilizes but require 500–700 years to reach steady state thickness. Mature SSOLs lower the growing season temperature and mean annual temperature of the underlying mineral soil by 8 and 3°C, respectively. We suggest that the proximate effects of warming climate on permafrost landscapes now covered by SSOLs will occur indirectly via climate's effects on the frequency, extent, and severity of disturbances like fires and landslides that disrupt the SSOLs and interfere with their protection of the underlying permafrost.

Alaska↗

USGS1999

The evolutionary history of steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) along the US Pacific Coast: Developing a conservation strategy using genetic diversity

Changes in genetic variation across a species range may indicate patterns of population structure resulting from past ecological and demographic events that are otherwise difficult to infer and thus provide insight into evolutionary development. Genetic data is used, drawn from 11 microsatellite loci amplified from anadromous steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) sampled throughout its range in the eastern Pacific Ocean, to explore population structure at the southern edge in California. Steelhead populations in this region represent less than 10% of their reported historic abundance and survive in very small populations found in fragmented habitats. Genetic data derived from three independent molecular systems (allozymes, mtDNA, and microsatellites) have shown that the southernmost populations are characterized by a relatively high genetic diversity. Two hypothetical models supporting genetic population substructure such as observed were considered: (1) range expansion with founder-flush effects and subsequent population decline; (2) a second Pleistocene radiation from the Gulf of California. Using genetic and climatic data, a second Pleistocene refugium contributing to a southern ecotone seems more feasible. These data support strong conservation measures based on genetic diversity be developed to ensure the survival of this uniquely diverse gene pool.

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗

USGS2024

Will there be water? Climate change, housing needs, and future water demand in California

Climate change in California is expected to alter future water availability, impacting water supplies needed to support future housing growth and agriculture demand. In groundwater-dependent regions like California's Central Coast, new land-use related water demand and decreasing recharge is already stressing depleted groundwater basins. We developed a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model that integrates climate, land-use change, water demand, and groundwater gain-loss to examine the impact of future climate and land use change on groundwater balance and water demand in five counties along the Central Coast from 2010 to 2060. The model incorporated downscaled groundwater recharge projections based on a Warm/Wet and a Hot/Dry climate future from a spatially explicit hydrological process-based model. Two urbanization projections from a parcel-based, regional urban growth model representing 1) recent historical and 2) state-mandated housing growth projections were used as alternative spatial targets for future urban growth. Agricultural projections were based on recent historical trends from remote sensing data. Annual projected changes in groundwater balance were calculated as the difference between land-use related water demand, based on historical estimates, and climate-driven recharge plus agriculture return flows. Results indicate that future changes in climate-driven groundwater recharge, coupled with cumulative increases in agricultural water demand, result in overall declines in future groundwater balance, with a Hot/Dry future resulting in cumulative groundwater decline in all but Santa Cruz County. Cumulative declines by 2060 are especially prominent in San Luis Obispo (−2.9 to −5.1 Bm 3 ) and Monterey counties (−6.5 to −8.7 Bm 3 ), despite limited changes in agricultural water demand over the model period. These two counties show declining groundwater reserves in a Warm/Wet future as well, while San Benito and Santa Barbara County barely reach equilibrium. These results suggest future groundwater supplies may not be able to keep pace with regional demand and declining climate-driven recharge, resulting in a potential reduction in water security in the region. However, our county-scale projections showed new housing and associated water demand does not conflict with California's groundwater sustainability goals. Rather, future climate coupled with increasing agricultural groundwater demand may reduce water security in some counties, potentially limiting available groundwater supplies for new housing.

California↗

USGS2025

Adapting visitor use management under a changing climate across the U.S. National Park System

Research shows that climate change is already affecting both resources and visitors in U.S. National Parks. We sought to better understand if and how park staff across the National Park Service are adapting to climatic changes that affect visitor use, as well as barriers and challenges to adaptation and information needs. We conducted semi-structured qualitative interviews with 63 staff from 31 representative national park units across the United States. We qualitatively coded interviews for themes using deductive and inductive coding approaches. Results indicate that park staff are already taking action to adapt to changes that are affecting visitor use, including efforts to increase resiliency of infrastructure and to support the health and safety of visitors (e.g., increased communication, preventative search and rescue, changes to programming). Common barriers and challenges include institutional factors (such as funding, staffing capacity, and shifting priorities), uncertainty about future conditions, and difficulties with prioritizing climate adaptation. Data, tool, and information needs varied, but commonly included social science data such as visitor surveys, and tools to help synthesize and standardize information and help translate science into action. These results provide insights into current actions park staff are taking to adapt to climate change and what resources may be helpful in the future to lower the challenges and barriers to adaptation.

Journal of Environmental Management↗