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USGS2016

A satellite model of Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) breeding habitat and a simulation of potential effects of tamarisk leaf beetles ( Diorhabda spp.), southwestern United States

Executive Summary The study described in this report represents the first time that a satellite model has been used to identify potential Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) (hereinafter referred to as “flycatcher”) breeding habitat rangewide for 2013–15. Fifty-seven Landsat scenes were required to map the entire range of the flycatcher, encompassing parts of six States and more than 1 billion 30-meter pixels. Predicted flycatcher habitat was summarized in a hierarchical fashion from largest to smallest: regionwide, State, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) management unit, 7.5-minute quadrangle, and critical-habitat reach. The term “predicted habitat” is used throughout this report to distinguish areas the satellite model predicts as suitable flycatcher habitat from what may actually exist on the ground. A rangewide accuracy assessment was done with 758 territories collected in 2014, and change detection was done with yearly habitat maps to identify how and where habitat changed over time. Additionally, effects of tamarisk leaf beetles ( Diorhabda spp.) on flycatcher habitat were summarized for the lower Virgin River from 2010 to 2015, and simulations of how tamarisk leaf beetles may affect flycatcher habitat in the lower Colorado and upper Gila Rivers were done for 2015. Model results indicated that the largest areas of predicted flycatcher habitat at elevations below 1,524 meters were in New Mexico and Arizona, areas followed in descending order by California, Texas, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado. By FWS management unit, the largest area of flycatcher habitat during all 3 years were the Middle Rio Grande (New Mexico), followed by the Upper Gila (Arizona and New Mexico) and Middle Gila/San Pedro (Arizona) management units. The area of predicted flycatcher habitat varied considerably in 7.5-minute quadrangles, ranging from 0 to1,398 hectares (ha). Averaged across 3 years, the top three producing quadrangles were Paraje Well (New Mexico), San Marcial (New Mexico), and San Carlos Reservoir (Arizona). The top three FWS critical-habitat reaches in 2015 were Rio Grande-middle (9,544 ha), San Pedro River (1,779 ha), and Gila River-mid San Carlos (1,356 ha); this ranking did not change in 2013 or 2014. Change detection among years showed a large shift in predicted flycatcher habitat influenced by drought patterns, with California habitat decreasing and New Mexico habitat increasing. An accuracy assessment indicated that 88 percent of territories were correctly classified at a 40 percent probability threshold, with an exponential relationship between territory densities and five probability classes. A spatially explicit analysis indicated that beetles decreased predicted flycatcher habitat 94.2 percent from 2010 to 2015 along the lower Virgin River, with only 5.8 percent persisting. In contrast, beetle simulations indicated that 64.1 percent of habitat will persist along the lower Colorado River and 45 percent will persist along the upper Gila River. This project shows that the satellite model adequately predicts flycatcher habitat rangewide, but it lacks the ability to predict which patches will be occupied in a given year. The next logical step is the development of an occupancy model that ties the habitat predictions of the satellite model to patch occupancy so managers can better allocate their resources for survey and restoration activities. Finally, the methods presented in this report seem well suited for automated mapping applications and cloud-based resources.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: Substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts

Background Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to rising temperatures associated with climate change. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these expectations. Here, we evaluate the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically, changes in temperature and precipitation) on species’ ranges, and assess whether expected range shifts are supported by the body of empirical evidence. Methods We conducted a Systematic Review, searching online databases and search engines in English. Studies were screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract review, followed by full-text review) to evaluate whether they met a list of eligibility criteria. Data coding, extraction, and study validity assessment was completed by a team of trained reviewers and each entry was validated by at least one secondary reviewer. We used logistic regression models to assess whether the direction of shift supported common range-shift expectations (i.e., shifts to higher latitudes and elevations, and deeper depths). We also estimated the magnitude of shifts for the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (i.e., km/decade). We accounted for methodological attributes at the study level as potential sources of variation. This allowed us to answer two questions: (1) are most species shifting in the direction we expect (i.e., each observation is assessed as support/fail to support our expectation); and (2) what is the average speed of range shifts? Review findings We found that less than half of all range-shift observations (46.60%) documented shifts towards higher latitudes, higher elevations, and greater marine depths, demonstrating significant variation in the empirical evidence for general range shift expectations. For the subset of studies looking at range shift rates, we found that species demonstrated significant average shifts towards higher latitudes (average = 11.8 km/dec) and higher elevations (average = 9 m/dec), although we failed to find significant evidence for shifts to greater marine depths. We found that methodological factors in individual range-shift studies had a significant impact on the reported direction and magnitude of shifts. Finally, we identified important variation across dimensions of range shifts (e.g., greater support for latitude and elevation shifts than depth), parameters (e.g., leading edge shifts faster than trailing edge for latitude), and taxonomic groups (e.g., faster latitudinal shifts for insects than plants). Conclusions Despite growing evidence that species are shifting their ranges in response to climate change, substantial variation exists in the extent to which definitively empirical observations confirm these expectations. Even though on average, rates of shift show significant movement to higher elevations and latitudes for many taxa, most species are not shifting in expected directions. Variation across dimensions and parameters of range shifts, as well as differences across taxonomic groups and variation driven by methodological factors, should be considered when assessing overall confidence in range-shift hypotheses. In order for managers to effectively plan for species redistribution, we need to better account for and predict which species will shift and by how much. The dataset produced for this analysis can be used for future research to explore additional hypotheses to better understand species range shifts.

Journal of Environmental Evidence↗

USGS2017

Developing multi-model ensemble projections of ecologically relevant climate variables for Puerto Rico and the US Caribbean

The global increases in surface air temperature are the most widespread and direct consequence of anthropogenic climate change. However, while 21st century temperatures are projected to increase in the Caribbean, the low variability and high average temperatures suggest that impacts on ecosystems and water resources are more likely through changes to the availability, timing, and pattern of moisture. The lack of local-scale climate model information that can resolve the complex topography and small scale climate features hinders the development of robust adaptation strategies. The goal of this project was to develop a suite of local-scale climate projections using dynamic downscaling to aid the development of adaptation strategies in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). This project began by engaging the ecologists, hydrologists, and conservation biologists in the region to determine the most valuable types of information to aid research and decision making. The final product provides projections of future climate at a 2km horizontal resolution based on three global climate models and two regional climate models for a scenario with high greenhouse gas emissions. Results from the projections suggest that for Puerto Rico, annual temperature would increase between 1°C and 1.3°C by mid-century with larger temperature increases located in the interior portion of the island. Precipitation totals decrease for much of the island with island average decline between 12% and 19%, with some potentially large localized decreases exceeding 30%. The projected changes for the USVI are dominated by the surrounding ocean environment. The resulting projections will be provided to stakeholders in the region via the USGS and the CLCC.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2019

Climate change adaptation for coastal national wildlife refuges

National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) along the East Coast of the United States protect habitat for a host of wildlife species, while also offering storm surge protection, improving water quality, supporting nurseries for commercially important fish and shellfish, and providing recreation opportunities for coastal communities. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the ability of NWRs to protect our nation’s natural resources and to sustain their many beneficial services. Through this project, researchers are collaborating with managers of the North Carolina Coastal Refuges Complex, Cape Romain NWR, South Carolina, and other local interested partners to assist with their long-term planning under uncertain conditions regarding sea-level rise and other global change processes. Researchers are using a variety of state-of-the-art approaches, including formal decision science for systematically analyzing management alternatives and scenario planning methods for engaging with stakeholders to explore possible futures. These approaches are aimed at helping NWR staff develop management objectives, identify and weigh potential management actions for adaptation, and generate decision-support tools and models. Outcomes and products from these efforts will aid managers as they plan for and adapt to the complex challenges facing the NWR system as changing climate and other conditions make their work increasingly more difficult.

Final Project Memorandum↗

USGS2002

Introduction

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Alaska is one of 16 refuges in Alaska and 539 refuges nationwide within the National Wildlife Refuge System administered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. First established as the Arctic National Wildlife Range in 1960 by Public Land Order 2214, it initially had a three-fold purpose to preserve unique wildlife, wilderness, and recreation values on 8.9 million acres. In 1980, the Arctic National Wildlife Range was expanded to the southwest and renamed the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (also called the Arctic Refuge in this report) when the U.S. Congress passed the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA), Public Law 96-487 (94 Stat. 2371). This legislation also designated almost all of the original Arctic National Wildlife Range as wilderness, and it directed the Secretary of the Interior to conduct studies evaluating both the biological resources and the potential petroleum reserves of 1.5 million acres (titled the 1002 Area) on the coastal plain of the Arctic Refuge. In April 1982, the Arctic Refuge staff completed a report summarizing the then current state of knowledge on the fish, wildlife, and their habitats present on the coastal plain of the Arctic Refuge (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1982). From 1982 to 1985, field investigations of biological resources of the 1002 Area were carried out by a number of investigators, and annual reports summarized the results (Garner and Reynolds 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987). These reports and other resources were used to prepare a Department of the Interior report to Congress: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska Coastal Plain Resource Assessment - Report and Recommendation to the Congress of the United States and Final Environmental Impact Satement (Clough et al., 1987).

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon Territory↗

USGS1996

Proceedings of the ocean drilling program: New Jersey continental slope and rise

The Scientific Results volumes of the Proceedings of the Ocean Drilling Program contain specialty papers presenting the results of extensive research in various aspects of scientific ocean drilling. The authors of the papers published in this volume have enabled future investigators to gain ready access to the results of their research, and I acknowledge their contributions with thanks. Each paper submitted to a Scientific Results volume undergoes rigorous peer review by at least two specialists in the author's research field. A paper typically goes through at least one revision cycle before being accepted for publication. We seek to maintain a peer-review system comparable to those of the most highly regarded journals in the geological sciences. Each Scientific Results volume has an Editorial Review Board that is responsible for obtaining peer reviews of papers submitted to the volume. This board usually is made up of the two co-chief scientists for the cruise, the ODP staff scientist for the cruise, and one external specialist who is familiar with the geology of the area investigated. In addition, the volume has an ODP staff editor who assists with manuscripts that require English-language attention and who coordinates volume assembly. Scientific Results volumes may also contain short reports of useful data that are not ready for final interpretation. Papers of this type, which may be found together in a section in the back of the volume, are called Data Reports and include no interpretation of results. Data Report papers are read carefully by at least one specialist to make sure they are well organized, comprehensive, and discuss the techniques or procedures thoroughly. To acknowledge the contributions made by this volume's Editorial Review Board, the Board members are designated Editors of the volume and are so listed on the title page. Reviewers of manuscripts for this volume, whose efforts are so essential to the success of the publication, are listed in the front of the book, without attribution to a particular manuscript. On behalf of the Ocean Drilling Program, I extend sincere appreciation to members of the Editorial Review Boards and to the reviewers for giving their generous contribution of time and effort, which ensures that only papers of high scientific quality are published in the Proceedings .

Book↗

USGS2017

The efficacy of combined educational and site management actions in reducing off-trail hiking in an urban-proximate protected area

Park and protected area managers are tasked with protecting natural environments, a particularly daunting challenge in heavily visited urban-proximate areas where flora and fauna are already stressed by external threats. In this study, an adaptive management approach was taken to reduce extensive off-trail hiking along a popular trail through an ecologically diverse and significant area in the Chesapeake and Ohio National Historical Park near Washington DC. Substantial amounts of off-trail hiking there had created an extensive 16.1 km network of informal (visitor-created) trails on a 39 ha island in the Potomac Gorge. A research design with additive treatments integrating educational and site management actions was applied and evaluated using self-reported behavior from an on-site visitor survey and unobtrusive observations of off-trail hiking behavior at two locations along the trail. Study treatments included: 1) trailhead educational signs developed using attribution theory and injunctive-proscriptive wording, 2) symbolic “no hiking” prompter signs attached to logs placed across all informal trails, 3) placement of concealing leaf litter and small branches along initial sections of informal trails, 4) restoration work on selected trails with low fencing, and 5) contact with a trail steward to personally communicate the trailhead sign information. The final, most comprehensive treatment reduced visitor-reported intentional off-trail hiking from 70.3% to 43.0%. Direct observations documented reduction in off-trail hiking from 25.9% to 2.0%. The educational message and site management actions both contributed to the decline in off-trail travel and the two evaluation methods enhanced our ability to describe the efficacy of the different treatments in reducing off-trail travel.

Bear Island↗

USGS2009

Regression equations for estimation of annual peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas using an L-moment-based, PRESS-minimized, residual-adjusted approach

Annual peak-streamflow frequency estimates are needed for flood-plain management; for objective assessment of flood risk; for cost-effective design of dams, levees, and other flood-control structures; and for design of roads, bridges, and culverts. Annual peak-streamflow frequency represents the peak streamflow for nine recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 250, and 500 years. Common methods for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged or unmonitored watersheds are regression equations for each recurrence interval developed for one or more regions; such regional equations are the subject of this report. The method is based on analysis of annual peak-streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations (stations). Beginning in 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and in partnership with Texas Tech University, began a 3-year investigation concerning the development of regional equations to estimate annual peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas. The investigation focuses primarily on 638 stations with 8 or more years of data from undeveloped watersheds and other criteria. The general approach is explicitly limited to the use of L-moment statistics, which are used in conjunction with a technique of multi-linear regression referred to as PRESS minimization. The approach used to develop the regional equations, which was refined during the investigation, is referred to as the 'L-moment-based, PRESS-minimized, residual-adjusted approach'. For the approach, seven unique distributions are fit to the sample L-moments of the data for each of 638 stations and trimmed means of the seven results of the distributions for each recurrence interval are used to define the station specific, peak-streamflow frequency. As a first iteration of regression, nine weighted-least-squares, PRESS-minimized, multi-linear regression equations are computed using the watershed characteristics of drainage area, dimensionless main-channel slope, and mean annual precipitation. The residuals of the nine equations are spatially mapped, and residuals for the 10-year recurrence interval are selected for generalization to 1-degree latitude and longitude quadrangles. The generalized residual is referred to as the OmegaEM parameter and represents a generalized terrain and climate index that expresses peak-streamflow potential not otherwise represented in the three watershed characteristics. The OmegaEM parameter was assigned to each station, and using OmegaEM, nine additional regression equations are computed. Because of favorable diagnostics, the OmegaEM equations are expected to be generally reliable estimators of peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped and ungaged stream locations in Texas. The mean residual standard error, adjusted R-squared, and percentage reduction of PRESS by use of OmegaEM are 0.30log 10 , 0.86, and -21 percent, respectively. Inclusion of the OmegaEM parameter provides a substantial reduction in the PRESS statistic of the regression equations and removes considerable spatial dependency in regression residuals. Although the OmegaEM parameter requires interpretation on the part of analysts and the potential exists that different analysts could estimate different values for a given watershed, the authors suggest that typical uncertainty in the OmegaEM estimate might be about +or-0.10 10 . Finally, given the two ensembles of equations reported herein and those in previous reports, hydrologic design engineers and other analysts have several different methods, which represent different analytical tracks, to make comparisons of peak-streamflow frequency estimates for ungaged watersheds in the study area.

Texas↗

USGS2020

Mercury, cadmium, copper, arsenic, and selenium measurements in the feathers of adult eastern brown pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis carolinensis) and chicks in multiple breeding grounds in the northern Gulf of Mexico

The amounts of trace metals and metalloids that have been introduced into aquatic ecosystems due to anthropogenic activities have increased in recent decades. Some of these elements like mercury are easily transferred from one trophic level to another and can accumulate to toxic quantities in organisms at the top of aquatic food webs. For this reason, seabirds like the Eastern brown pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis carolinensis ) are susceptible to heavy metal and metalloid toxicity and may warrant periodic monitoring. Mercury, cadmium, copper, arsenic and selenium were measured in the feathers of adult brown pelicans and chicks in several breeding colonies (Shamrock Island, Chester Island, Marker 52 Island, North Deer Island, Raccoon Island, Felicity Island, Gaillard Island, Audubon Island, and Ten Palms Island) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Overall, most chicks and adults examined had mercury levels in feathers that were below the concentration range in which birds show symptoms of mercury toxicity. However, chicks in the Audubon Island and Ten Palms Island colonies displayed mercury levels that were 3 times higher than values observed in 5 other colonies. In addition, several adults and chicks displayed selenium concentrations that are above what is considered safe for birds. Cadmium quantities in feathers were below levels that trigger toxicity in birds. Similarly, arsenic measurements were at quantities below the average of what has been reported for birds living in contaminated sites. Finally, we identify pelican breeding colonies that may warrant monitoring due to elevated levels of contaminants.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana,Texas↗

USGS2018

Decadal changes in channel morphology of a freely meandering river—Powder River, Montana, 1975–2016

Few studies exist on the long-term geomorphic effects of floods. However, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was able to begin such a study after a 50-year recurrence interval flood in 1978 because 20 channel cross sections along a 100-kilometer reach of river were established in 1975 and 1977 as part of a study for a proposed dam on Powder River in southeastern Montana. These cross-section measurements (data for each channel cross section are available at the USGS ScienceBase website) have been repeated about 30 times during four decades (1975–2016) and provide a unique dataset for understanding long-term changes in channel morphology caused by an extreme flood and a spectrum of annual floods. Changes in channel morphology of a 100-kilometer reach of Powder River are documented in a series of narratives for each channel cross section that include a time series of photographs as a record of these changes. The primary change during the first decade (1975–85) was the rapid vertical growth of a new inset flood plain within the flood-widened channel. Changes during the second decade (1985–95) were characterized by slower growth of the flood plain, and the effects of ice-jam floods typical of a northward-flowing river. Changes during the third decade (1995–2005) showed little vertical growth of the inset flood plain, which had reached a height that limited overbank deposition. And changes during the final decade (2005–16) covered in this report showed that, because the new inset flood plain had reached a limiting height, the effects of the large annual flood of 2008 (largest flood since 1978) were relatively small compared to smaller floods in previous decades. Throughout these four decades, the riparian vegetation, which interacts with the river, has undergone a gradual but substantial change that may have lasting effects on the channel morphology.

Montana↗

USGS2026

Methods for estimating selected streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in Wyoming based on data through water year 2021

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wyoming Water Development Office, developed regional regression equations based on basin characteristics and streamflow statistics for streamgages through water year 2021 (October 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021). The regression equations allow estimates of mean annual maximum, mean annual, mean seasonal, and mean monthly streamflows; frequency statistics for the 7-day mean low flows with 2-year and 10-year recurrence intervals, 14- and 30-day mean low flows with 5-year recurrence intervals, and 60- and 1-day mean high flow with 2-year and 5-year recurrence intervals, respectively; and the 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, 2-, 4-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 25-, 30-, 50-, 60-, 70-, 75-, 80-, 90-, 95-, 98-, and 99-percent durations for annual streamflows and 0.1-, 0.5-, 10-, 15-, 20-, 25-, 30-, 40-, 50-, 60-, 70-, 75-, 80-, 85-, 90-, 95-, and 99-percent durations for monthly streamflows for most months for ungaged locations in Wyoming that are largely unaltered by diversions or upstream reservoirs. Regression equations were developed for 243 streamflow statistics. Best-subset selection was used to assess explanatory variables for respective streamflow statistics. Exploratory data analyses determined that, of the 81 basin characteristics evaluated as potential explanatory variables, characteristics such as drainage area and precipitation often produced models with the highest adjusted coefficient of determination and lowest mean squared error, as determined in the best-subset selection. To address heteroskedasticity of model residuals, model variables were regionalized using fixed-effects models; the percentages of the streamgage basins in selected ecoregions were defined as interaction terms, which represent the model slope for specific ecoregions. Most models were determined to be statistically significant for probability values less than or equal to 0.1 for one or more regional explanatory variables. The final regional regression equations defined in this report are available for use in the U.S. Geological Survey’s StreamStats web application at https://streamstats.usgs.gov/ss/ .

Colorado, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dako↗

USGS1976

Bird collections in the United States and Canada: Addenda and corrigenda

Since publication of our report on the avian collections in the United States and Canada (Banks, Clench, and Barlow 1973, Auk 90: 136- 170) several changes and additions have come to our attention. In some cases, recent curatorial work has resulted in more accurate counts to replace previous estimates. Other collections have grown markedly in the last few years. Some important private or institutional collections have been transferred to other jurisdictions. Finally, we have received a few completely new reports from collections that were unknown to us or that were unresponsive to our original requests for information.

The Auk↗

USGS2012

Computing daily mean streamflow at ungaged locations in Iowa by using the Flow Anywhere and Flow Duration Curve Transfer statistical methods

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) maintains approximately 148 real-time streamgages in Iowa for which daily mean streamflow information is available, but daily mean streamflow data commonly are needed at locations where no streamgages are present. Therefore, the USGS conducted a study as part of a larger project in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources to develop methods to estimate daily mean streamflow at locations in ungaged watersheds in Iowa by using two regression-based statistical methods. The regression equations for the statistical methods were developed from historical daily mean streamflow and basin characteristics from streamgages within the study area, which includes the entire State of Iowa and adjacent areas within a 50-mile buffer of Iowa in neighboring states. Results of this study can be used with other techniques to determine the best method for application in Iowa and can be used to produce a Web-based geographic information system tool to compute streamflow estimates automatically. The Flow Anywhere statistical method is a variation of the drainage-area-ratio method, which transfers same-day streamflow information from a reference streamgage to another location by using the daily mean streamflow at the reference streamgage and the drainage-area ratio of the two locations. The Flow Anywhere method modifies the drainage-area-ratio method in order to regionalize the equations for Iowa and determine the best reference streamgage from which to transfer same-day streamflow information to an ungaged location. Data used for the Flow Anywhere method were retrieved for 123 continuous-record streamgages located in Iowa and within a 50-mile buffer of Iowa. The final regression equations were computed by using either left-censored regression techniques with a low limit threshold set at 0.1 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) and the daily mean streamflow for the 15th day of every other month, or by using an ordinary-least-squares multiple linear regression method and the daily mean streamflow for the 15th day of every other month. The Flow Duration Curve Transfer method was used to estimate unregulated daily mean streamflow from the physical and climatic characteristics of gaged basins. For the Flow Duration Curve Transfer method, daily mean streamflow quantiles at the ungaged site were estimated with the parameter-based regression model, which results in a continuous daily flow-duration curve (the relation between exceedance probability and streamflow for each day of observed streamflow) at the ungaged site. By the use of a reference streamgage, the Flow Duration Curve Transfer is converted to a time series. Data used in the Flow Duration Curve Transfer method were retrieved for 113 continuous-record streamgages in Iowa and within a 50-mile buffer of Iowa. The final statewide regression equations for Iowa were computed by using a weighted-least-squares multiple linear regression method and were computed for the 0.01-, 0.05-, 0.10-, 0.15-, 0.20-, 0.30-, 0.40-, 0.50-, 0.60-, 0.70-, 0.80-, 0.85-, 0.90-, and 0.95-exceedance probability statistics determined from the daily mean streamflow with a reporting limit set at 0.1 ft 3 /s. The final statewide regression equation for Iowa computed by using left-censored regression techniques was computed for the 0.99-exceedance probability statistic determined from the daily mean streamflow with a low limit threshold and a reporting limit set at 0.1 ft 3 /s. For the Flow Anywhere method, results of the validation study conducted by using six streamgages show that differences between the root-mean-square error and the mean absolute error ranged from 1,016 to 138 ft 3 /s, with the larger value signifying a greater occurrence of outliers between observed and estimated streamflows. Root-mean-square-error values ranged from 1,690 to 237 ft 3 /s. Values of the percent root-mean-square error ranged from 115 percent to 26.2 percent. The logarithm (base 10) streamflow percent root-mean-square error ranged from 13.0 to 5.3 percent. Root-mean-square-error observations standard-deviation-ratio values ranged from 0.80 to 0.40. Percent-bias values ranged from 25.4 to 4.0 percent. Untransformed streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values ranged from 0.84 to 0.35. The logarithm (base 10) streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values ranged from 0.86 to 0.56. For the streamgage with the best agreement between observed and estimated streamflow, higher streamflows appear to be underestimated. For the streamgage with the worst agreement between observed and estimated streamflow, low flows appear to be overestimated whereas higher flows seem to be underestimated. Estimated cumulative streamflows for the period October 1, 2004, to September 30, 2009, are underestimated by -25.8 and -7.4 percent for the closest and poorest comparisons, respectively. For the Flow Duration Curve Transfer method, results of the validation study conducted by using the same six streamgages show that differences between the root-mean-square error and the mean absolute error ranged from 437 to 93.9 ft 3 /s, with the larger value signifying a greater occurrence of outliers between observed and estimated streamflows. Root-mean-square-error values ranged from 906 to 169 ft 3 /s. Values of the percent root-mean-square-error ranged from 67.0 to 25.6 percent. The logarithm (base 10) streamflow percent root-mean-square error ranged from 12.5 to 4.4 percent. Root-mean-square-error observations standard-deviation-ratio values ranged from 0.79 to 0.40. Percent-bias values ranged from 22.7 to 0.94 percent. Untransformed streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values ranged from 0.84 to 0.38. The logarithm (base 10) streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values ranged from 0.89 to 0.48. For the streamgage with the closest agreement between observed and estimated streamflow, there is relatively good agreement between observed and estimated streamflows. For the streamgage with the poorest agreement between observed and estimated streamflow, streamflows appear to be substantially underestimated for much of the time period. Estimated cumulative streamflow for the period October 1, 2004, to September 30, 2009, are underestimated by -9.3 and -22.7 percent for the closest and poorest comparisons, respectively.

Illinois;Iowa;Minnesota;Missouri;Nebraska;Wisconsi↗

USGS2021

Neither microcystin, nor nodularin, nor cylindrospermopsin directly interact with human toll-like receptors

Various stressors including temperature, environmental chemicals, and toxins can have profound impacts on immunity to pathogens. Increased eutrophication near rivers and lakes coupled with climate change are predicted to lead to increased algal blooms. Currently, the effects of cyanobacterial toxins on disease resistance in mammals is a largely unexplored area of research. Recent studies have suggested that freshwater cyanotoxins can elicit immunomodulation through interaction with specific components of innate immunity, thus potentially altering disease susceptibility parameters for fish, wildlife, and human health owing to the conserved nature of the vertebrate immune system. In this study, we investigated the effects of three microcystin congeners (LR, LA, and RR), nodularin-R, and cylindrospermopsin for their ability to directly interact with nine different human Toll-like receptors (TLRs)—key pathogen recognition receptors for innate immunity. Toxin concentrations were verified by LC/MS/MS prior to use. Using an established HEK293-hTLR NF-κB reporter assay, we concluded that none of the tested toxins (29–90 nM final concentration) directly interacted with human TLRs in either an agonistic or antagonistic manner. These results suggest that earlier reports of cyanotoxin-induced NF-κB responses likely occur through different surface receptors to mediate inflammation.

Chemosphere↗

USGS2012

Advanced earthquake monitoring system for U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs medical buildings–Instrumentation

In collaboration with the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), the National Strong Motion Project (NSMP; http://nsmp.wr.usgs.gov/ ) of the U.S. Geological Survey has been installing sophisticated seismic systems that will monitor the structural integrity of 28 VA hospital buildings located in seismically active regions of the conterminous United States, Alaska, and Puerto Rico during earthquake shaking. These advanced monitoring systems, which combine the use of sensitive accelerometers and real-time computer calculations, are designed to determine the structural health of each hospital building rapidly after an event, helping the VA to ensure the safety of patients and staff. This report presents the instrumentation component of this project by providing details of each hospital building, including a summary of its structural, geotechnical, and seismic hazard information, as well as instrumentation objectives and design. The structural-health monitoring component of the project, including data retrieval and processing, damage detection and localization, automated alerting system, and finally data dissemination, will be presented in a separate report.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Landfill leachate as a mirror of today's disposable society: Pharmaceuticals and other contaminants of emerging concern in final leachate from landfills in the conterminous United States

Final leachates (leachate after storage or treatment processes) from 22 landfills in 12 states were analyzed for 190 pharmaceuticals and other contaminants of emerging concern (CECs), which were detected in every sample, with the number of CECs ranging from 1 to 58 (median = 22). In total, 101 different CECs were detected in leachate samples, including 43 prescription pharmaceuticals, 22 industrial chemicals, 15 household chemicals, 12 nonprescription pharmaceuticals, 5 steroid hormones, and 4 animal/plant sterols. The most frequently detected CECs were lidocaine (91%, local anesthetic), cotinine (86%, nicotine degradate), carisoprodol (82%, muscle relaxant), bisphenol A (77%, component of plastics and thermal paper), carbamazepine (77%, anticonvulsant), and N,N-diethyltoluamide (68%, insect repellent). Concentrations of CECs spanned 7 orders of magnitude, ranging from 2.0 ng/L (estrone) to 17 200 000 ng/L (bisphenol A). Concentrations of household and industrial chemicals were the greatest (&sim;1000-1 000 000 ng/L), followed by plant/animal sterols (&sim;1000-100 000 ng/L), nonprescription pharmaceuticals (&sim;100-10 000 ng/L), prescription pharmaceuticals (&sim;10-10 000 ng/L), and steroid hormones (&sim;10-100 ng/L). The CEC concentrations in leachate from active landfills were significantly greater than those in leachate from closed, unlined landfills (p = 0.05). The CEC concentrations were significantly greater (p < 0.01) in untreated leachate compared with treated leachate. The CEC concentrations were significantly greater in leachate disposed to wastewater treatment plants from modern lined landfills than in leachate released to groundwater from closed, unlined landfills (p = 0.04). The CEC concentrations were significantly greater (p = 0.06) in the fresh leachate (leachate before storage or treatment) reported in a previous study compared with the final leachate sampled for the present study.

Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesot↗

USGS2020

2023 Coastal master plan: Model improvement plan, ICM-wetlands, vegetation, and soil

As part of the model improvement effort for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan, the wetland processes captured by the morphology and vegetation models used during previous master plans were reevaluated to assess how Integrated Compartment Model (ICM) subroutines could be improved. This process considered technical reviews, comments, and suggested improvements provided by model developers, advisory groups, and other experts during previous master plan cycles. The availability of new data and information that could be used to make model improvements was also considered. In many cases, the team considered and tested multiple options or approaches. As a result of this effort, recommended improvements are provided here. The improvements recommended to be included in the 2023 Coastal Master Plan include: adjusting marsh collapse thresholds, refining organic matter accretion calculations, developing an unstructured grid for modeling vegetation, improving flotant marsh and forested wetlands algorithms, creating and applying an updated map of existing vegetation, adjusting model code, and updating the submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) module. This report describes the team’s work through a series of 7 distinct activities to identify and test options for model improvements to ensure the updated ICM used for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan appropriately captures ecological and morphological processes observed in Coastal Louisiana. As appropriate, relevant literature and data are discussed. Test runs to evaluate how changes influence model outputs are also documented. A final list of recommended updates, taking into account consideration of all options and results from test runs, is summarized at the end of the report. A later report will describe the final ICM-LAVegMod and ICM-Morph subroutines for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan, detailing the updates that have been incorporated.

Louisiana↗

USGS2007

U.S. Geological Survey Georgia Water Science Center and City of Brunswick–Glynn County Cooperative Water Program— Summary of activities, July 2005 through June 2006

Since 1959, the U.S. Geological Survey has conducted a cooperative water resources program (CWP) with the City of Brunswick and Glynn County in the Brunswick, Georgia, area. Since the late 1950s, the salinity of ground water in the Upper Floridan aquifer near downtown Brunswick, Georgia, has been increasing, and its occurrence has been detected across an area of increasing size. Pumping of the Upper Floridan aquifer near downtown Brunswick has lowered water levels in the aquifer and resulted in an upward hydraulic gradient between the highly saline parts of the Lower Floridan aquifer and the normally fresh Upper Floridan aquifer. Saltwater likely enters the Upper Floridan aquifer through localized, vertically oriented conduits of relatively high permeability and moves laterally in response to the distribution of stresses within the aquifer. The Brunswick-Glynn County CWP for fiscal year 2006 includes the operation and maintenance of 12 continuous water-level recorders. In addition, water-level data were collected from 52 wells and water from 70 wells was analyzed for chloride concentration during June 2005. Geophysical logs were obtained from one well to assess whether the cause of elevated chloride concentration could be due to leaky well casing. A summary of the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division (GaEPD) Georgia Coastal Sound Science Initiative (CSSI) activities that directly benefit the CWP-Brunswick-Glynn County is included in this report. The GaEPD CSSI is a program of scientific and feasibility studies to support development of a final strategy to protect the Upper Floridan aquifer from saltwater contamination. These data presented in this report are needed by State and local authorities to manage water resources effectively in the coastal area of Georgia.

Georgia↗