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Results for “Ecological Modelling”

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At least 505 records · Page 28Linked to original sources
USGS2009

Ecosystem effects of environmental flows: Modelling and experimental floods in a dryland river

Successful environmental flow prescriptions require an accurate understanding of the linkages among flow events, geomorphic processes and biotic responses. We describe models and results from experimental flow releases associated with an environmental flow program on the Bill Williams River (BWR), Arizona, in arid to semiarid western U.S.A. Two general approaches for improving knowledge and predictions of ecological responses to environmental flows are: (1) coupling physical system models to ecological responses and (2) clarifying empirical relationships between flow and ecological responses through implementation and monitoring of experimental flow releases. We modelled the BWR physical system using: (1) a reservoir operations model to simulate reservoir releases and reservoir water levels and estimate flow through the river system under a range of scenarios, (2) one- and two-dimensional river hydraulics models to estimate stage-discharge relationships at the whole-river and local scales, respectively, and (3) a groundwater model to estimate surface- and groundwater interactions in a large, alluvial valley on the BWR where surface flow is frequently absent. An example of a coupled, hydrology-ecology model is the Ecosystems Function Model, which we used to link a one-dimensional hydraulic model with riparian tree seedling establishment requirements to produce spatially explicit predictions of seedling recruitment locations in a Geographic Information System. We also quantified the effects of small experimental floods on the differential mortality of native and exotic riparian trees, on beaver dam integrity and distribution, and on the dynamics of differentially flow-adapted benthic macroinvertebrate groups. Results of model applications and experimental flow releases are contributing to adaptive flow management on the BWR and to the development of regional environmental flow standards. General themes that emerged from our work include the importance of response thresholds, which are commonly driven by geomorphic thresholds or mediated by geomorphic processes, and the importance of spatial and temporal variation in the effects of flows on ecosystems, which can result from factors such as longitudinal complexity and ecohydrological feedbacks. ?? Published 2009.

Freshwater Biology↗
USGS2014

Ecological site-based assessments of wind and water erosion: informing accelerated soil erosion management in rangelands

Accelerated soil erosion occurs when anthropogenic processes modify soil, vegetation or climatic conditions causing erosion rates at a location to exceed their natural variability. Identifying where and when accelerated erosion occurs is a critical first step toward its effective management. Here we explore how erosion assessments structured in the context of ecological sites (a land classification based on soils, landscape setting and ecological potential) and their vegetation states (plant assemblages that may change due to management) can inform systems for reducing accelerated soil erosion in rangelands. We evaluated aeolian horizontal sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA, using monitoring data and rangeland-specific wind and water erosion models. Across the ecological sites, plots in shrub-encroached and shrub-dominated vegetation states were consistently susceptible to aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion. Both processes were found to be highly variable for grassland and grass-succulent states across the ecological sites at the plot scale (0.25 Ha). We identify vegetation thresholds that define cover levels below which rapid (exponential) increases in aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion occur across the ecological sites and vegetation states. Aeolian sediment flux and fluvial erosion in the study area can be effectively controlled when bare ground cover is <20% of a site or the cover of canopy interspaces >100 cm in length is less than ~35%. Land use and management activities that alter cover levels such that they cross thresholds, and/or drive vegetation state changes, may increase the susceptibility of areas to erosion. Land use impacts that are constrained within the range of natural variability should not result in accelerated soil erosion. Evaluating land condition against the erosion thresholds identified here will enable identification of areas susceptible to accelerated soil erosion and the development of practical management solutions.

New Mexico↗
USGS2012

Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramaticallylower than previously predicted

The ecology of mosquito vectors and malaria parasites affect the incidence, seasonal transmission and geographical range of malaria. Most malaria models to date assume constant or linear responses of mosquito and parasite life-history traits to temperature, predicting optimal transmission at 31 °C. These models are at odds with field observations of transmission dating back nearly a century. We build a model with more realistic ecological assumptions about the thermal physiology of insects. Our model, which includes empirically derived nonlinear thermal responses, predicts optimal malaria transmission at 25 °C (6 °C lower than previous models). Moreover, the model predicts that transmission decreases dramatically at temperatures > 28 °C, altering predictions about how climate change will affect malaria. A large data set on malaria transmission risk in Africa validates both the 25 °C optimum and the decline above 28 °C. Using these more accurate nonlinear thermal-response models will aid in understanding the effects of current and future temperature regimes on disease transmission.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2024

Hydrodynamic model of the Colorado River, Glen Canyon Dam to Lees Ferry in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Arizona

The U.S. Geological Survey constructed a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model that was applied to a 15.8-mile tailwater reach of the Colorado River in Glen Canyon that begins 0.25 mile downstream from Glen Canyon Dam and extends to Lees Ferry in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Arizona. The model used the Flow and Sediment Transport with Morphological Evolution of Channels (FaSTMECH) solver in the International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) modeling interface. The model grid was developed from a full channel digital elevation model derived by combining bathymetric and topographic data collected from March 2013 to February 2016. The model was used to predict water-surface elevations, depths, depth-averaged flow velocities, and bed shear stresses for discharges ranging from 1,000 to 70,000 cubic feet per second. Modeled water-surface elevations matched well with measured values at cross sections throughout the reach, with a mean absolute error of 0.14 meter over the range of typical discharge releases from Glen Canyon Dam. The mean error on discharge, a measure of how well the model solution converged, averaged 0.6 percent and did not exceed 2 percent over the range of discharges modeled. These results indicate that model predictions of hydraulic parameters are reasonably accurate and suitable for use for a variety of purposes, such as ecological and geomorphic modeling.

Arizona↗
USGS2005

Climate patterns as predictors of amphibians species richness and indicators of potential stress

Amphibians occupy a range of habitats throughout the world, but species richness is greatest in regions with moist, warm climates. We modeled the statistical relations of anuran and urodele species richness with mean annual climate for the conterminous United States, and compared the strength of these relations at national and regional levels. Model variables were calculated for county and subcounty mapping units, and included 40-year (1960-1999) annual mean and mean annual climate statistics, mapping unit average elevation, mapping unit land area, and estimates of anuran and urodele species richness. Climate data were derived from more than 7,500 first-order and cooperative meteorological stations and were interpolated to the mapping units using multiple linear regression models. Anuran and urodele species richness were calculated from the United States Geological Survey's Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) National Atlas for Amphibian Distributions. The national multivariate linear regression (MLR) model of anuran species richness had an adjusted coefficient of determination (R2) value of 0.64 and the national MLR model for urodele species richness had an R2 value of 0.45. Stratifying the United States by coarse-resolution ecological regions provided models for anUrans that ranged in R2 values from 0.15 to 0.78. Regional models for urodeles had R2 values. ranging from 0.27 to 0.74. In general, regional models for anurans were more strongly influenced by temperature variables, whereas precipitation variables had a larger influence on urodele models.

Alytes↗
USGS2002

Ecological effects on streams from forest fertilization: Literature review and conceptual framework for future study in the western Cascades

Fertilization of forests with urea-nitrogen has been studied numerous times for its effects on water quality. Stream nitrogen concentrations following fertilization are typically elevated during winter, including peaks in the tens-of-thousands of parts per billion range, with summer concentrations often returning to background or near-background levels. Despite these increases, water-quality criteria for nitrogen have rarely been exceeded. However, such criteria are targeted at fish toxicity or human health and are not relevant to concentrations that could cause ecological disturbances. Studies of the responses of stream biota to fertilization have been rare and have targeted either immediate, toxicity-based responses or used methods insensitive to ongoing ecological processes. This report reviews water-quality studies following forest fertilizations, emphasizing Cascade streams in the Pacific Northwest and documented biological responses in those streams. A conceptual model predicting potential ecological response to fertilization, which includes effects on algal growth and primary production, is presented. In this model, applied fertilizer nitrogen reaching streams is mostly exported during winter. However, some nitrogen retained in soils or stream and riparian areas may become available to aquatic biota during spring and summer. Biological responses may be minimal in small streams nearest to application because of light limitation, but may be elevated downstream where light is sufficient to allow algal growth. Ultimately, algal response could be greatest in downstream reaches, although ambient nutrient concentrations remain low due to uptake and benthic nutrient recycling. Ground-water flow paths and hyporheic processing could be critical in determining the fate of applied nitrogen. A framework is provided for testing this response in the Little River watershed, a tributary to the North Umpqua River, Oregon, at basic and intensive levels of investigation.

Oregon↗
USGS2019

The rise of an apex predator following deglaciation

Aim Sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) are an apex predator of the nearshore marine community and nearly went extinct at the turn of the 20th century. Reintroductions and legal protection allowed sea otters to re‐colonize much of their former range. Our objective was to chronicle the colonization of this apex predator in Glacier Bay, Alaska, to help understand the mechanisms that governed their successful colonization. Location Glacier Bay is a tidewater glacier fjord in southeastern Alaska that was entirely covered by glaciers in the mid‐18th century. Since then, it has endured the fastest tidewater glacier retreat in recorded history. Methods We collected and analysed several data sets, spanning 20 years, to document the spatio‐temporal dynamics of an apex predator expanding into an area where they were formerly absent. We used novel quantitative tools to model the occupancy, abundance and colonization dynamics of sea otters, while accounting for uncertainty in the data collection process, the ecological process and model parameters. Results Twenty years after sea otters were first observed colonizing Glacier Bay, they became one of the most abundant and widely distributed marine mammal. The population grew exponentially at a rate of 20% per year. They colonized Glacier Bay at a maximum rate of 6 km per year, with faster colonization rates occurring early in the colonization process. During colonization, sea otters selected shallow areas, close to shore, with a steep bottom slope, and a relatively simple shoreline complexity index. Main conclusions The growth and expansion of sea otters in Glacier Bay demonstrate how legal protection and translocation of apex predators can facilitate their successful establishment into a community in which they were formerly absent. The success of sea otters was, in part, a consequence of habitat that was left largely unperturbed by humans for the past 250 years. Further, sea otters and other marine predators, whose distribution is limited by ice, have the potential to expand in distribution and abundance, reshaping future marine communities in the wake of deglaciation and global loss of sea ice.

Alaska↗
USGS2007

Linking occurrence and fitness to persistence: Habitat-based approach for endangered Greater Sage-Grouse

Detailed empirical models predicting both species occurrence and fitness across a landscape are necessary to understand processes related to population persistence. Failure to consider both occurrence and fitness may result in incorrect assessments of habitat importance leading to inappropriate management strategies. We took a two-stage approach to identifying critical nesting and brood-rearing habitat for the endangered Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Alberta at a landscape scale. First, we used logistic regression to develop spatial models predicting the relative probability of use (occurrence) for Sage-Grouse nests and broods. Secondly, we used Cox proportional hazards survival models to identify the most risky habitats across the landscape. We combined these two approaches to identify Sage-Grouse habitats that pose minimal risk of failure (source habitats) and attractive sink habitats that pose increased risk (ecological traps). Our models showed that Sage-Grouse select for heterogeneous patches of moderate sagebrush cover (quadratic relationship) and avoid anthropogenic edge habitat for nesting. Nests were more successful in heterogeneous habitats, but nest success was independent of anthropogenic features. Similarly, broods selected heterogeneous high-productivity habitats with sagebrush while avoiding human developments, cultivated cropland, and high densities of oil wells. Chick mortalities tended to occur in proximity to oil and gas developments and along riparian habitats. For nests and broods, respectively, approximately 10% and 5% of the study area was considered source habitat, whereas 19% and 15% of habitat was attractive sink habitat. Limited source habitats appear to be the main reason for poor nest success (39%) and low chick survival (12%). Our habitat models identify areas of protection priority and areas that require immediate management attention to enhance recruitment to secure the viability of this population. This novel approach to habitat-based population viability modeling has merit for many species of concern. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2025

Supporting dryland restoration success with applied ecological forecasting of seeding outcomes

Introduction Ecological restoration is increasingly used to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services. In drylands of the western United States (US), post-disturbance restoration often involves seeding treatments to promote the recovery of native plant communities. Spatial and temporal variability in environmental conditions influences plant establishment and contributes to low restoration success in certain locations and years. Objectives Here, we discuss how forecasts for plant establishment can be developed and delivered to help land managers anticipate the impacts of near-term (months to years) environmental conditions on restoration. Methods We developed an ecological forecast system that predicts the outcome of restoration seeding by integrating weather forecasts, an ecosystem water balance model, and plant establishment models. Results In this article, we focus on a conceptual approach to developing, delivering, and applying ecological forecasts for restoration. We illustrate the potential of this approach by adapting existing ecological models to build an initial version of a decision support tool that delivers a species-specific ecological forecast for big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) establishment. Integrating ecological forecasts into plans for restoration seeding presents opportunities to anticipate and account for environmental variability. Conclusions Finally, we discuss how connecting research, forecast delivery, and management can maximize the impact of ecological forecasts on restoration success.

Idaho, Nevada↗
USGS2016

Using structural equation modeling to link human activities to wetland ecological integrity

The integrity of wetlands is of global concern. A common approach to evaluating ecological integrity involves bioassessment procedures that quantify the degree to which communities deviate from historical norms. While helpful, bioassessment provides little information about how altered conditions connect to community response. More detailed information is needed for conservation and restoration. We have illustrated an approach to addressing this challenge using structural equation modeling (SEM) and long-term monitoring data from Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP). Wetlands in RMNP are threatened by a complex history of anthropogenic disturbance including direct alteration of hydrologic regimes; elimination of elk, wolves, and grizzly bears; reintroduction of elk (absent their primary predators); and the extirpation of beaver. More recently, nonnative moose were introduced to the region and have expanded into the park. Bioassessment suggests that up to half of the park's wetlands are not in reference condition. We developed and evaluated a general hypothesis about how human alterations influence wetland integrity and then develop a specific model using RMNP wetlands. Bioassessment revealed three bioindicators that appear to be highly sensitive to human disturbance (HD): (1) conservatism, (2) degree of invasion, and (3) cover of native forbs. SEM analyses suggest several ways human activities have impacted wetland integrity and the landscape of RMNP. First, degradation is highest where the combined effects of all types of direct HD have been the greatest (i.e., there is a general, overall effect). Second, specific HDs appear to create a “mixed-bag” of complex indirect effects, including reduced invasion and increased conservatism, but also reduced native forb cover. Some of these effects are associated with alterations to hydrologic regimes, while others are associated with altered shrub production. Third, landscape features created by historical beaver activity continue to influence wetland integrity years after beavers have abandoned sites via persistent landforms and reduced biomass of tall shrubs. Our model provides a system-level perspective on wetland integrity and provides a context for future evaluations and investigations. It also suggests scientifically supported natural resource management strategies that can assist in the National Park Service mission of maintaining or, when indicated, restoring ecological integrity “unimpaired for future generations.”

Colorado↗
USGS2010

Trait-based approaches in the analysis of stream fish communities

Species traits are used to study the functional organization of fish communities for a range of reasons, from simply reducing data dimensionality to providing mechanistic explanations for observed variation in communities. Ecological and life history traits have been used to understand the basic ecology of fishes and predict (1) species and community responses to habitat and climate alteration, and (2) species extinction, species invasion, and community homogenization. Many approaches in this arena have been developed during the past three decades, but they often have not been integrated with related ecological concepts or subdisciplines, which has led to confusion in terminology. We review 102 studies of species traits and then summarize patterns in traits being used and questions being addressed with trait-based approaches. Overall, studies of fish–habitat relationships that apply habitat templates and hierarchical filters dominate our sample; the most frequently used traits are related to feeding. We define and show the relationships among key terms such as fundamental and realized niches; functional traits, performance, and fitness; tactic, trait-state, syndromes, and strategies; and guilds and functional groups. We propose accelerating research to (1) quantify trait plasticity, (2) identify traits useful for testing ecological hypotheses, (3) model habitat and biotic interactions in communities while explicitly accounting for phylogenetic relationships, (4) explore how traits control community assembly, and (5) document the importance of traits in fish– community responses to anthropogenic change and in delivering ecosystem services. Further synthesis of these topics is still needed to develop concepts, models, and principles that can unify the disparate approaches taken in trait-based analysis of fish communities, link fish community ecology to general community ecology, and inform sustainable management of ecosystems.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1993

Integration of environmental simulation models with satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies: case studies

Environmental modelers are testing and evaluating a prototype land cover characteristics database for the conterminous United States developed by the EROS Data Center of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies. This database was developed from multi temporal, 1-kilometer advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for 1990 and various ancillary data sets such as elevation, ecological regions, and selected climatic normals. Several case studies using this database were analyzed to illustrate the integration of satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies with land-atmosphere interactions models at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The case studies are representative of contemporary environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management, and environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management and environmental risk assessment. The case studies feature land surface parameterizations for atmospheric mesoscale and global climate models; biogenic-hydrocarbons emissions models; distributed parameter watershed and other hydrological models; and various ecological models such as ecosystem, dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, ecotone variability, and equilibrium vegetation models. The case studies demonstrate the important of multi temporal AVHRR data to develop to develop and maintain a flexible, near-realtime land cover characteristics database. Moreover, such a flexible database is needed to derive various vegetation classification schemes, to aggregate data for nested models, to develop remote sensing algorithms, and to provide data on dynamic landscape characteristics. The case studies illustrate how such a database supports research on spatial heterogeneity, land use, sensitivity analysis, and scaling issues involving regional extrapolations and parameterizations of dynamic land processes within simulation models.

Pecora 12 Symposium↗
USGS2011

Modelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China

Global concerns over the emergence of zoonotic pandemics emphasize the need for high-resolution population distribution mapping and spatial modelling. Ongoing efforts to model disease risk in China have been hindered by a lack of available species level distribution maps for poultry. The goal of this study was to develop 1 km resolution population density models for China's chickens, ducks, and geese. We used an information theoretic approach to predict poultry densities based on statistical relationships between poultry census data and high-resolution agro-ecological predictor variables. Model predictions were validated by comparing goodness of fit measures (root mean square error and correlation coefficient) for observed and predicted values for 1/4 of the sample data which were not used for model training. Final output included mean and coefficient of variation maps for each species. We tested the quality of models produced using three predictor datasets and 4 regional stratification methods. For predictor variables, a combination of traditional predictors for livestock mapping and land use predictors produced the best goodness of fit scores. Comparison of regional stratifications indicated that for chickens and ducks, a stratification based on livestock production systems produced the best results; for geese, an agro-ecological stratification produced best results. However, for all species, each method of regional stratification produced significantly better goodness of fit scores than the global model. Here we provide descriptive methods, analytical comparisons, and model output for China's first high resolution, species level poultry distribution maps. Output will be made available to the scientific and public community for use in a wide range of applications from epidemiological studies to livestock policy and management initiatives.

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment↗
USGS2007

Predicting wetland plant community responses to proposed water-level-regulation plans for Lake Ontario: GIS-based modeling

Integrated, GIS-based, wetland predictive models were constructed to assist in predicting the responses of wetland plant communities to proposed new water-level regulation plans for Lake Ontario. The modeling exercise consisted of four major components: 1) building individual site wetland geometric models; 2) constructing generalized wetland geometric models representing specific types of wetlands (rectangle model for drowned river mouth wetlands, half ring model for open embayment wetlands, half ellipse model for protected embayment wetlands, and ellipse model for barrier beach wetlands); 3) assigning wetland plant profiles to the generalized wetland geometric models that identify associations between past flooding / dewatering events and the regulated water-level changes of a proposed water-level-regulation plan; and 4) predicting relevant proportions of wetland plant communities and the time durations during which they would be affected under proposed regulation plans. Based on this conceptual foundation, the predictive models were constructed using bathymetric and topographic wetland models and technical procedures operating on the platform of ArcGIS. An example of the model processes and outputs for the drowned river mouth wetland model using a test regulation plan illustrates the four components and, when compared against other test regulation plans, provided results that met ecological expectations. The model results were also compared to independent data collected by photointerpretation. Although data collections were not directly comparable, the predicted extent of meadow marsh in years in which photographs were taken was significantly correlated with extent of mapped meadow marsh in all but barrier beach wetlands. The predictive model for wetland plant communities provided valuable input into International Joint Commission deliberations on new regulation plans and was also incorporated into faunal predictive models used for that purpose.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2016

Improving the effectiveness of ecological site descriptions: General state-and-transition models and the Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool (EDIT)

State-and-transition models (STMs) are useful tools for management, but they can be difficult to use and have limited content. STMs created for groups of related ecological sites could simplify and improve their utility. The amount of information linked to models can be increased using tables that communicate management interpretations and important within-group variability. We created a new web-based information system (the Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool) to house STMs, associated tabular information, and other ecological site data and descriptors. Fewer, more informative, better organized, and easily accessible STMs should increase the accessibility of science information.

Rangelands↗
USGS2016

Applications of genetic data to improve management and conservation of river fishes and their habitats

Environmental variation and landscape features affect ecological processes in fluvial systems; however, assessing effects at management-relevant temporal and spatial scales is challenging. Genetic data can be used with landscape models and traditional ecological assessment data to identify biodiversity hotspots, predict ecosystem responses to anthropogenic effects, and detect impairments to underlying processes. We show that by combining taxonomic, demographic, and genetic data of species in complex riverscapes, managers can better understand the spatial and temporal scales over which environmental processes and disturbance influence biodiversity. We describe how population genetic models using empirical or simulated genetic data quantify effects of environmental processes affecting species diversity and distribution. Our summary shows that aquatic assessment initiatives that use standardized data sets to direct management actions can benefit from integration of genetic data to improve the predictability of disturbance–response relationships of river fishes and their habitats over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales.

Fisheries↗
USGS2013

Spatial capture-recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity

Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on “ecological distance,” i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture–recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture–recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

Ecology↗
USGS2017

Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus virological and genetic surveillance 2000–2012

Surveillance records of the acute RNA pathogen of Pacific salmonid fish infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus are combined for the first time to enable landscape-level ecological analyses and modeling. The study area is the freshwater ecosystems of the large Columbia River watershed in the U.S. states of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, as well as coastal rivers in Washington and Oregon. The study period is 2000–2012, and records were contributed by all five resource management agencies that operate conservation hatcheries in the study area. Additional records from wild fish were collected from the National Wild Fish Health Survey, operated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Survey. After curation and normalization, the data set consists of 6766 records, representing 1146 sample sites and 15 different fish hosts. The virus was found in an average of 12.4% of records, and of these 66.2% also have viral genetic analysis available. This data set is used to conduct univariate ecological and epidemiological analyses and develop a novel hierarchical landscape transmission model for an aquatic pathogen.

Ecology↗