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Fuel treatments in shrublands experiencing pinyon and juniper expansion result in trade-offs between desired vegetation and increased fire behavior

Background Native pinyon ( Pinus spp.) and juniper ( Juniperus spp.) trees are expanding into shrubland communities across the Western United States. These trees often outcompete with native sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) associated species, resulting in increased canopy fuels and reduced surface fuels. Woodland expansion often results in longer fire return intervals with potential for high severity crown fire. Fuel treatments are commonly used to prevent continued tree infilling and growth and reduce fire risk, increase ecological resilience, improve forage quality and quantity, and/or improve wildlife habitat. Treatments may present a trade-off; they restore shrub and herbaceous cover and decrease risk of canopy fire but may increase surface fuel load and surface fire potential. We measured the accumulation of surface and canopy fuels over 10 years from ten sites across the Intermountain West in the Sagebrush Steppe Treatment Evaluation Project woodland network ( www.SageSTEP.org ), which received prescribed fire or mechanical (cut and drop) tree reduction treatments. We used the field data and the Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) in the Fuel and Fire Tools (FFT) application to estimate surface and canopy fire behavior in treated and control plots in tree expansion phases I, II, and III. Results Increased herbaceous surface fuel following prescribed fire treatments increased the modeled rate of surface fire spread (ROS) 21-fold and nearly tripled flame length (FL) by year ten post-treatment across all expansion phases. In mechanical treatments, modeled ROS increased 15-fold, FL increased 3.8-fold, and reaction intensity roughly doubled in year ten post-treatment compared to pretreatment and untreated controls. Treatment effects were most pronounced at 97th percentile windspeeds, with modeled ROS up to 82 m min −1 in mechanical and 106 m min −1 in prescribed fire treatments by 10 years post-treatment compared to 5 m min −1 in untreated controls. Crown fire transmissivity risk was eliminated by both fuel treatments. Conclusions While prescribed fire and mechanical treatments in shrublands experiencing tree expansion restored understory vegetation and prevented continued juniper and pinyon infilling and growth, these fuel treatments also increased modeled surface fire behavior. Thus, management tradeoffs occur between desired future vegetation and wildfire risk after fuel treatments.

California, Nevada, Oregon, Utah

A framework for identifying and characterising coral reef “oases” against a backdrop of degradation

Human activities have led to widespread ecological decline; however, the severity of degradation is spatially heterogeneous due to some locations resisting, escaping, or rebounding from disturbances. We developed a framework for identifying oases within coral reef regions using long‐term monitoring data. We calculated standardised estimates of coral cover ( z ‐scores) to distinguish sites that deviated positively from regional means. We also used the coefficient of variation (CV) of coral cover to quantify how oases varied temporally, and to distinguish among types of oases. We estimated “coral calcification capacity” (CCC), a measure of the coral community's ability to produce calcium carbonate structures and tested for an association between this metric and z ‐scores of coral cover. We illustrated our z ‐score approach within a modelling framework by extracting z ‐scores and CVs from simulated data based on four generalized trajectories of coral cover. We then applied the approach to time‐series data from long‐term reef monitoring programmes in four focal regions in the Pacific (the main Hawaiian Islands and Mo'orea, French Polynesia) and western Atlantic (the Florida Keys and St. John, US Virgin Islands). Among the 123 sites analysed, 38 had positive z ‐scores for median coral cover and were categorised as oases. Synthesis and applications . Our framework provides ecosystem managers with a valuable tool for conservation by identifying “oases” within degraded areas. By evaluating trajectories of change in state (e.g., coral cover) among oases, our approach may help in identifying the mechanisms responsible for spatial variability in ecosystem condition. Increased mechanistic understanding can guide whether management of a particular location should emphasise protection, mitigation or restoration. Analysis of the empirical data suggest that the majority of our coral reef oases originated by either escaping or resisting disturbances, although some sites showed a high capacity for recovery, while others were candidates for restoration. Finally, our measure of reef condition (i.e., median z ‐scores of coral cover) correlated positively with coral calcification capacity suggesting that our approach identified oases that are also exceptional for one critical component of ecological function.

Florida, Hawaii

Connectivity of Mojave Desert tortoise populations—Management implications for maintaining a viable recovery network

Executive Summary The historic distribution of Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) was relatively continuous across the range, and the importance of tortoise habitat outside of designated tortoise conservation areas (TCAs) to recovery has long been recognized for its contributions to supporting gene flow between TCAs and to minimizing impacts and edge effects within TCAs. However, connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations has become a concern because of recent and proposed development of large tracts of desert tortoise habitat that cross, fragment, and surround designated conservation areas. This paper summarizes the underlying concepts and importance of connectivity for Mojave desert tortoise populations by reviewing current information on connectivity and providing information to managers for maintaining or enhancing desert tortoise population connectivity as they consider future proposals for development and management actions. Maintaining an ecological network for the Mojave desert tortoise, with a system of core habitats (TCAs) connected by linkages, is necessary to support demographically viable populations and long-term gene flow within and between TCAs. There are four points for wildlife and land-management agencies to consider when making decisions that could affect connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations (for example, in updating actions in resource management plans or amendments that could help maintain or restore functional connectivity in light of the latest information): Management of all desert tortoise habitat for persistence and connectivity . Desert tortoise populations continue to decline within most TCAs, and it is unlikely that trends are better in populations outside protected areas. Fragmentation exacerbates negative population trends by breaking large continuous populations into smaller isolated populations. Connectivity within large populations can enhance resilience to localized disturbances due to rescue by neighboring individuals. In contrast, smaller fragmented populations are resistant to rescue by their isolation and thus could suffer irreversible declines to extirpation from a variety of threats and stochastic events. Enhanced threat reduction to reverse declines within TCAs and to maintain occupied habitat in the surrounding matrix would help reduce the variability in population growth rates and improve the resilience of protected populations even while implementing efforts to improve connectivity. Each TCA has unique strengths and weaknesses regarding its ability to support minimum sustainable populations based on areal extent and its ability to support population increases based on landscape connection with adjacent populations. Considering how proposed projects (inside or outside of TCAs) affect connectivity and the ability of TCAs to support at least 5,000 adult tortoises (the numerical goal for each TCA) could help managers to maintain the resilience of TCAs to population declines. The same project, in an alternative location, could have very different impacts on local and regional populations. For example, within the habitat matrix surrounding TCAs, narrowly delineated corridors may not allow for natural population dynamics if they do not accommodate overlapping home ranges along most of their widths so that tortoises reside, grow, find mates, and produce offspring that can replace older tortoises. In addition, most habitat outside TCAs may receive more surface disturbance than habitat within TCAs. Therefore, managing the entire remaining matrix of desert tortoise habitat for permeability may be better than delineating fixed corridors. These concepts apply, especially given uncertainty about long-term condition of habitat, within and outside of TCAs under a changing climate. Ultimately, questions such as “ What are the critical linkages that need to be protected ?” could be better framed as “ How can we manage the remaining habitat matrix in ways that sustain ecological processes and habitat suitability for special status species ?” Land-management decisions made in the context of the latter question may be more conducive to maintenance of a functional ecological network. Limitations on landscape-level disturbance across habitat managed for the desert tortoise Clearly delineating habitat linkages and differentiating them from non-delineated areas by the uses that are permitted or prohibited within them by specific management guidelines can help achieve functional connectivity. Such guidelines would be most effective if they considered and accounted for all surface disturbances (for example, temporary disturbances such as fiberoptic lines or off-highway vehicle routes, right-of-ways, utility-scale solar development, urbanization) to the extent possible. A weighted framework that varies with the permanence or severity of the disturbance, and can be additive to quantify cumulative effects, could be useful (Xiong, 2020). For example, minor roads can alter tortoise movements independently of other features (Peaden and others, 2017; Hromada and others, 2020), but if the isolated dirt road is accompanied by a powerline that encourages raven predation (Xiong, 2020), then the two features together may be additive. Ignoring minor or temporary disturbance on the landscape could result in a cumulatively large impact that is not explicitly acknowledged (Goble, 2009); therefore, understanding and quantifying all surface disturbance on a given landscape is prudent. In California, the Bureau of Land Management established 0.1–1.0 percent caps on new surface-disturbance for TCAs and mapped linkages that address the issues described in number 1 of this list. Nevada, Utah, and Arizona currently do not have surface-disturbance limits. Limits comparable to those in the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) would be 0.5 percent within TCAs and 1 percent within the linkages modeled by Averill-Murray and others (2013). Limits in some areas of California within the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan, such as Ivanpah Valley, are more restrictive, at 0.1 percent. Continuity across the state line in Nevada could be achieved with comparable limits in the adjacent portion of Ivanpah Valley, as well as the Greater Trout Canyon Translocation Area and the Stump Springs Regional Augmentation Site. These more restrictive limits would help protect remaining habitat in the major interstate connectivity pathway through Ivanpah Valley and focal areas of population augmentation that provide additional population connectivity along the western flank of the Spring Mountains. In a recent study that analyzed 13 years of desert tortoise monitoring data, nearly all desert tortoise observations were at sites in which 5 percent or less of the surrounding landscape within 1 kilometer was disturbed (Carter and others, 2020a). To help maintain tortoise habitability and permeability across all other non-conservation-designated tortoise habitat, all surface disturbance could be limited to less than 5-percent development per square kilometer because the 5-percent threshold for development is the point at which tortoise occupation drops precipitously (Carter and others, 2020a). However, although individual desert tortoises were observed at development levels up to 5 percent, we do not know the fitness or reproductive characteristics of these individuals. This level of development also may not allow for long-term persistence of healthy populations that are of adequate size needed for demographic or functional connectivity; therefore, a conservative interpretation suggests that, ideally, development could be lower. Lower development levels would be particularly useful in areas within the upper 5th percentile of connectivity values modeled by Gray and others (2019). Reducing ancillary threats in places where connectivity is restricted to narrow strips of habitat, for example, narrow mountain passes or vegetated strips between solar development, could enhance the functionality of these vulnerable linkages. In such areas, maintaining multiple, redundant linkages could further enhance overall connectivity. Minimization of mortality from roads and maximization of passage under roads . Roads pose a significant threat to the long-term persistence of local tortoise populations, and roads of high traffic volume lead to severe population declines, which ultimately fragments populations farther away from the roads. Three points (a.–c.) pertain to reducing direct mortality of tortoises on the many paved roads that cross desert tortoise habitat and to maintaining a minimal level of permeability across these roads: Tortoise-exclusion fencing tied into culverts, underpasses, overpasses, or other passages below roads in desert tortoise habitat, would limit vehicular mortality of tortoises and provide opportunities for movement across the roads. Installation of shade structures on the habitat side of fences installed in areas with narrow population-depletion zones would limit overheating of tortoises that may pace the fence. Passages below highways could be maintained or retrofitted to ensure safe tortoise access, for example, by filling eroded drop-offs or modifying erosion-control features such as rip-rap to make them safer and more passable for tortoises. Wildlife management agencies could work with transportation departments to develop construction standards that are consistent with hydrologic/erosion management goals, while also incorporating a design and materials consistent with tortoise survival and passage and make the standards widely available. The process would be most effective if the status of passages was regularly monitored and built into management plans. Healthy tortoise populations along fenced highways could be supported by ensuring that land inside tortoise-exclusion fences is not so degraded that it leads to degradation of tortoise habitat outside the exclusion areas. For example, severe invasive plant infestations inside a highway exclusion could cause an increase of invasive plants outside the exclusion area and degrade habitat; therefore, invasive plants inside road rights of way could be mown or treated with herbicide to limit their spread into adjacent tortoise habitat and minimize the risk of these plants carrying wildfires into adjacent habitat. Adaptation of management based on new information . Future research will continue to build upon and refine models related to desert tortoise population connectivity and develop new ones. New models could consider landscape levels of development and be constructed such that they share common foundations to support future synthesis efforts. If model development was undertaken in partnership with entities that are responsible for management of desert tortoise habitat, it would facilitate incorporation of current and future modeling results into their land management decisions. There are specific topics that may be clarified with further evaluation: The effects of climate change on desert tortoise habitat, distribution, and population connectivity; The effects of large-scale fires, especially within repeatedly burned habitat, on desert tortoise distribution and population connectivity; The ability of solar energy facilities or similar developments to support tortoise movement and presence by leaving washes intact; leaving native vegetation intact whenever possible, or if not possible, mowing the site, allowing vegetation to re-sprout, and managing weeds; and allowing tortoises to occupy the sites; and The design and frequency of underpasses necessary to maintain functional demographic and genetic connectivity across linear features, like highways.

Arizona, California, Nevada

Control of reed canarygrass promotes wetland herb and tree seedling establishment in an upper Mississippi River Floodplain forest

Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) is recognized as a problematic invader of North American marshes, decreasing biodiversity and persisting in the face of control efforts. Less is known about its ecology or management in forested wetlands, providing an opportunity to apply information about factors critical to an invader's control in one wetland type to another. In a potted plant experiment and in the field, we documented strong competitive effects of reed canarygrass on the establishment and early growth of tree seedlings. In the field, we demonstrated the effectiveness of a novel restoration strategy, combining site scarification with late fall applications of pre-emergent herbicides. Treatments delayed reed canarygrass emergence the following spring, creating a window of opportunity for the early growth of native plants in the absence of competition from the grass. They also allowed for follow-up herbicide treatments during the growing season. We documented greater establishment of wetland herbs and tree seedlings in treated areas. Data from small exclosures suggest, however, that deer browsing can limit tree seedling height growth in floodplain restorations. Slower tree growth will delay canopy closure, potentially allowing reed canarygrass re-invasion. Thus, it may be necessary to protect tree seedlings from herbivory to assure forest regeneration.

Wisconsin

Management and environmental factors associated with simulated restoration seeding barriers in sagebrush steppe

Adverse weather conditions, particularly freezing or drought, are often associated with poor seedling establishment following restoration seeding in drylands like the Great Basin sagebrush steppe (USA). Management decisions such as planting date or seed source could improve restoration outcomes by reducing seedling exposure to weather barriers. We simulated the effects of management and environmental factors on seedling exposure to post-germination barriers for bottlebrush squirreltail ( Elymus elymoides ), Sandberg bluegrass ( Poa secunda ), and bluebunch wheatgrass ( Pseudoroegneria spicata ). We combined germination timing models with daily soil moisture and temperature estimates to calculate yearly germination favorability and post-germination freezing and drought barriers for three planting dates (Oct. 15, Nov. 15, and Mar. 15) and three seed sources or cultivars per species for 5000 sites in each of 40 yrs (water years 1980-2019). We tested the effects of site environmental variables (elevation, mean annual precipitation, heat load, and clay content) and management choices (seed source and planting date) on germination favorability and barrier occurrence (mean) and variability (coefficient of variation). Seedling exposure to barriers was strongly linked to management decisions in addition to site mean precipitation and elevation. Later fall plantings and seed sources with slower germination (lower mean germination favorability) were less likely to encounter freezing and drought barriers. These results suggest that management actions can play a role comparable to site environmental variables in reducing exposure of vulnerable seedlings to adverse weather conditions and subsequent effects on restoration outcomes.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washingto

Streamflow as a stressor: Disentangling hydrology and water quality impacts to characterize flow-ecology relationships for two stream assemblages across two southeastern landscapes

Disassociating the independent effects of flow and water quality on the ecology of flowing waters is an overarching goal in water resource science needed to improve the efficacy of watershed management. However, the interrelatedness of these gradients and their subsequent alteration due to land use change has constrained progress made on this front. The objective of this study was to use benthic macroinvertebrate and fish assemblage data to characterize flow-ecology relationships that were unchanged by water quality impacts across two southeastern landscapes in the USA to help detect ecological change driven by flow alteration. General linear latent models were used to identify taxa that were responsive to high or low flow metrics and water quality gradients. Bayesian hierarchical generalized additive models were then developed using these indicator taxa and three biological metrics to identify flow-specific relationships that were unaffected by water quality impacts. Three low flow-specific relationships were identified, illustrating how potential agricultural or urban impacts to hydrology reduced stream biological health. Importantly, flow-ecology relationships developed using indicator taxa in this study effectively captured hydrology-specific impacts while biological metrics typical of state monitoring and assessment programs did not. Therefore, developing flow-specific biological metrics is a critical step when developing management strategies targeting flow alteration. Implementing standardized frameworks such as the one characterized here can limit contradictory findings and improve streamflow enhancement and restoration project efficacy. These low flow-specific relationships will enhance managers' capacity to develop environmental flow standards, monitor their success, and better understand urban and agricultural impacts on stream assemblages.

Alabama

Transient population dynamics impede restoration and may promote ecosystem transformation after disturbance

The apparent failure of ecosystems to recover from increasingly widespread disturbance is a global concern. Despite growing focus on factors inhibiting resilience and restoration, we still know very little about how demographic and population processes influence recovery. Using inverse and forward demographic modelling of 531 post‐fire sagebrush populations across the western US, we show that demographic processes during recovery from seeds do not initially lead to population growth but rather to years of population decline, low density, and risk of extirpation after disturbance and restoration, even at sites with potential to support long‐term, stable populations. Changes in population structure, and resulting transient population dynamics, lead to a > 50% decline in population growth rate after disturbance and significant reductions in population density. Our results indicate that demographic processes influence the recovery of ecosystems from disturbance and that demographic analyses can be used by resource managers to anticipate ecological transformation risk.

Ecology Letters

Monitoring habitat restoration projects: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Pacific Region Partners for Fish and Wildlife Program and Coastal Program Protocol

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's (FWS) Pacific Region (Region 1) includes more than 158 million acres (almost 247,000 square miles) of land base in Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Hawai`i, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa, Guam, the Republic of Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of the Marshall Islands. Region 1 is ecologically diverse with landscapes that range from coral reefs, broadleaf tropical forests, and tropical savannahs in the Pacific Islands, to glacial streams and lakes, lush old-growth rainforests, inland fjords, and coastal shoreline in the Pacific Northwest, to the forested mountains, shrub-steppe desert, and native grasslands in the Inland Northwest. Similarly, the people of the different landscapes perceive, value, and manage their natural resources in ways unique to their respective regions and cultures. The Partners for Fish and Wildlife Program (Partners Program) and Coastal Program work with a variety of partners in Region 1 including individual landowners, watershed councils, land trusts, Soil and Water Conservation Districts, non-governmental organizations, Tribal governments, Native Hawaiian organizations, and local, State, and Federal agencies. The Partners Program is the FWS's vanguard for working with private landowners to voluntarily restore and conserve fish and wildlife habitat. Using non-regulatory incentives, the Partners Program engages willing partners to conserve and protect valuable fish and wildlife habitat on their property and in their communities. This is accomplished by providing the funding support and technical and planning tools needed to make on-the-ground conservation affordable, feasible, and effective. The primary goals of the Pacific Region Partners Program are to: Promote citizen and community-based stewardship efforts for fish and wildlife conservation Contribute to the recovery of at-risk species, Protect the environmental integrity of the National Wildlife Refuges, Contribute to the implementation of the State Comprehensive Wildlife Conservation Strategies, and Help achieve the objectives of the National Fish Habitat Partnerships and regionally based bird conservation plans (for example, North American Waterfowl Management Plan, U.S. Pacific Island Shorebird Conservation Plans, Intermountain West Regional Shorebird Plan, etc.). The Partners Program accomplishes these priorities by: Developing and maintaining strong partnerships, and delivering on-the-ground habitat restoration projects designed to reestablish habitat function and restore natural processes; Addressing key habitat limiting factors for declining species; Providing corridors for wildlife and decrease impediments to native fish and wildlife migration; and Enhancing native plant communities by reducing invasive species and improving native species composition. The Coastal Program is a voluntary fish and wildlife conservation program that focuses on watershed-scale, long-term collaborative resource planning and on-the-ground restoration projects in high-priority coastal areas. The Coastal Program conducts planning and restoration work on private, State, and Federal lands, and partnerships with other agencies-Native American Tribes, citizens, and organizations are emphasized. Coastal Program goals include restoring and protecting coastal habitat, providing technical and cost-sharing assistance where appropriate, supporting community-based restoration, collecting and developing information on the status of and threats to fish and wildlife, and using outreach to promote stewardship of coastal resources. The diversity of habitats and partners in Region 1 present many opportunities for conducting restoration projects. Faced with this abundance of opportunity, the Partners Program and Coastal Program must ensure that limited staffing and project dollars are allocated to benefit the highest priority resources and achieve the highest quality results for Federal trust species. In 2007, the Partners Program and Coastal Program developed a Strategic Plan to guide program operations and more efficiently conserve habitat by focusing partnership building and habitat improvement actions within 35 Partners Program Focus Areas and 9 Coastal Program Focus Areas (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2010). The Strategic Plan also contains four other goals: broaden and strengthen partnerships; improve information sharing and communications; enhance workforce; and increase accountability to ensure that program resources are used efficiently and effectively. This protocol will help achieve all goals of the Strategic Plan.

Techniques and Methods

Priority species lists to restore desert tortoise and pollinator habitats in Mojave Desert shrublands

Mojave Desert shrublands are home to unique plants and wildlife and are experiencing rapid habitat change due to unprecedented large-scale disturbances; yet, established practices to effectively restore disturbed landscapes are not well developed. A priority species list of native plant taxa was developed to guide seed collectors, commercial growers, resource managers, and restoration practitioners in support of the Bureau of Land Management's Mojave Desert Native Plant Program. We identify focal plant taxa that are important for habitats of the threatened Mojave desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ), a widely distributed herbivore in low and middle elevations, and pollinator taxa, including mostly Lepidopterans and Apoidean bees, some of whose populations are in decline. We identified 201 unique plant taxa in the diets of tortoises, and 49 taxa that provide thermal cover for tortoises with some overlapping taxa that provide both diet and cover. We discuss 134 native pollinators associated with plants used for nectaring, larval hosts, or cover and nesting materials. Detailed plant species accounts describing the status-of-knowledge for 57 plant taxonomic groups including detailed information on life history, ecology, and pollinator syndrome relevant to restoration success, methods of seed harvesting, propagation, and historical use in restoration. Our approach for developing a priority plant species list for the Mojave Desert provides a data-guided listing of species for restoration practitioners and identifies knowledge gaps for future investigation.

California, Nevada

At the edge of change: Native Phragmites persistence and nonnative arrival along the dam-regulated Colorado River

Premise The southwestern United States is at the forefront of nonnative Phragmites australis subsp. australis expansion. Native Phragmites australis subsp. americanus , likely in decline in North America, is ecologically and culturally important and of conservation interest. In the greater Grand Canyon region, the Glen Canyon Dam led to loss of habitat upstream and increases in Phragmites downstream. Recent increases correspond with changes to dam operations and the arrival of nonnative Phragmites . Determining the native status of Phragmites stands along the Colorado River and around Lake Powell can inform complex management choices and restoration planning. Methods Phragmites subspecies at 83 locations from southern Utah through northern Arizona, United States were genetically tested using real-time PCR. Genetic diversity and structure were assessed using microsatellite loci for 13 native Phragmites stands. Morphological traits of southwestern native Phragmites were compared to those of nonnative Phragmites . Results Nonnative Phragmites was identified at four of the 83 locations. Native Phragmites in the study area is genetically diverse with little regional genetic structure, but substantial genetic differentiation among sites. Southwestern native Phragmites is morphologically variable, but characteristics can be used together to distinguish it from nonnative Phragmites . Conclusions The greater Grand Canyon and Glen Canyon regions support a large, genetically diverse native Phragmites population, which is potentially threatened by nonnative Phragmites and changes to river management. Determining conditions that would lead to nonnative Phragmites invasion of desert wetlands will facilitate discussions about the risks and benefits of Phragmites management in these unique ecosystems.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah

Defining aquatic habitat zones across northern Gulf of Mexico estuarine gradients through submerged aquatic vegetation species assemblage and biomass data

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) creates highly productive habitats in coastal areas, providing support for many important species of fish and wildlife. Despite the importance and documented loss of SAV across fresh to marine habitats globally, we lack consistent baseline data on estuarine SAV resources, particularly in the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) estuaries. To understand SAV distribution in the NGOM, SAV biomass and species identity were collected at 384 sites inter-annually (June–September; 2013–2015) from Mobile Bay, Alabama, to San Antonio Bay, Texas, USA. Coastwide, SAV distribution and biomass were consistent across years, covering an estimated 87,000 ha, and supporting approximately 16 ± 1% total cover with an average biomass of 24.5 ± 1.9 g m −2 . Differences in hydrology (i.e., precipitation, freshwater input, water depth) and exposure (i.e., wave and wind energy) manifested in unique SAV assemblages and biomass distributions across the region (i.e., Coastal Mississippi-Alabama, Mississippi River Coastal Wetlands, Chenier Plain, Texas Mid-Coast) and estuarine gradient (i.e., marsh zones defined as fresh, intermediate, brackish, saline). Descriptive cluster analyses identified indicator SAV species, known as medoid observations that represented combined salinity, turbidity, and depth conditions unique to different region and marsh zone combinations. While the presence of SAV is often used as an indicator of ecological health, identifying a medoid-based SAV indicator species in aquatic habitats can be used to describe estuarine conditions in more detail and develop aquatic habitat zones. Exploration and the use of this type of field data could be developed as a means to track, manage, and define aquatic habitats across regional and estuarine gradients and further develop ecosystem-based assessment and restoration activities. Identifying aquatic zones through a representative medoid associates SAV species with locations defined by both long-term salinity and salinity variability, water depth, and exposure, which is a powerful potential tool for managers and restoration decision-makers.

Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas

Sources, fate, and transport of nitrogen and phosphorus in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: An empirical model

Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) was used to provide empirical estimates of the sources, fate, and transport of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and the mean annual TN and TP flux to the bay and in each of 80,579 nontidal tributary stream reaches. Restoration efforts in recent decades have been insufficient to meet established standards for water quality and ecological conditions in Chesapeake Bay. The bay watershed includes 166,000 square kilometers of mixed land uses, multiple nutrient sources, and variable hydrogeologic, soil, and weather conditions, and bay restoration is complicated by the multitude of nutrient sources and complex interacting factors affecting the occurrence, fate, and transport of nitrogen and phosphorus from source areas to streams and the estuary. Effective and efficient nutrient management at the regional scale in support of Chesapeake Bay restoration requires a comprehensive understanding of the sources, fate, and transport of nitrogen and phosphorus in the watershed, which is only available through regional models. The current models, Chesapeake Bay nutrient SPARROW models, version 4 (CBTN_v4 and CBTP_v4), were constructed at a finer spatial resolution than previous SPARROW models for the Chesapeake Bay watershed (versions 1, 2, and 3), and include an updated timeframe and modified sources and other explantory terms. Chesapeake Bay receives an estimated 1.32 x 10 8 kilograms (132,000 metric tons) of nitrogen and 9.74 x 10 6 kilograms (9,740 metric tons) of phosphorus annually from its watershed, mainly through its two largest tributaries, the Susquehanna and Potomac Rivers. Significant (α=0.10) sources of nutrients to streams in the watershed include fertilizer and manure applications in agricultural areas, undifferentiated urban activities, point sources, atmospheric deposition and direct fixation by crops (for nitrogen), and mineral sources (for phosphorus). Agriculture (primarily fertilizer applications and crop fixation) contributes more than half of the nitrogen delivered from the watershed to the bay; phosphorus contributions are more mixed, and fairly evenly distributed among agricultural (fertilizer and manure applications) and urban (including point) sources. Natural mineral dissolution contributes approximately 14 percent of the phosphorus flux from the watershed to the Chesapeake Bay. Empirical estimates of average yields from different source areas and of the portion of selected applications delivered to streams agree closely with previously reported values in the literature. Nutrient fate and transport through the Chesapeake Bay watershed to the bay reflect the diferent physical and chemical properties of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds. Groundwater is an important pathway for nitrogen transport (as nitrate), and TN flux is greatest in areas with greater groundwater flow and in areas of the Piedmont underlain by carbonate rocks. TN flux decreases with increasing vegetative growth (likely indicative of plant uptake) and soil available water capacity (likely indicative of reducing conditions). Phosphorus transport to streams, conversely, is greatest in areas most likely to generate overland runoff and related erosion, including those with less permeable and more erodible soils and greater precipitation. Phosphorus transport also is greater in the Coastal Plain than in other areas, possibly due to saturation of soils with historical phosphorus applications. Both nitrogen and phosphorus are lost within watershed impoundments (lakes, ponds, or reservoirs), and nitrogen is also lost significantly along flowing reaches, particularly in small streams and in larger streams in warmer areas.

Chesapeake Bay

Energy development and production in the Great Plains: Implications and restoration opportunities

Energy is an integral part of society. The major US energy sources of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas); biofuels (ethanol); and wind are concentrated in grassland ecosystems of the Great Plains. As energy demand continues to increase, mounting pressures will be placed on North American grassland systems. In this review, we present the ecological effects of energy development and production on grassland systems. We then identify opportunities to mitigate these effects during the planning, construction, and production phases by using informed methodology and improved technology. Primary effects during energy development include small- and large-scale soil disturbance and vegetation removal as small patches of grasslands are used to host oil or gas wells, wind turbine pads, associated roadways, and pipelines or through the conversion of large grassland areas to biofuel croplands. Direct habitat loss or habitat fragmentation can affect wildlife directly through increased mortality or indirectly through reduction in habitat quantity and quality. During energy production, air and water quality can be affected through regular emissions or unplanned spills. Energy development can also affect the economy and health of local communities. During planning, energy development and production effects can be reduced by carefully considering effects on grasslands during siting and even by selecting different energy source types. During construction, effects on soil and plant systems can be minimized by eliminating weed populations before disturbance, salvaging and stockpiling topsoil for future revegetation, and harvesting native local seed for postsite restoration. During energy production operations, noise and road traffic reduction plans and atmospheric monitoring will enable more informed mitigation measures. Continued research on energy development effects and mitigation measures is necessary to establish best management practices beneficial to grassland health while providing needed energy for the United States.

Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minneso

Streamflow extents and hydraulic characteristics of Meadow Valley Wash at Stuart Ranch, near Rox, Nevada

The former Stuart Ranch, now managed by the Bureau of Land Management, is transected by Meadow Valley Wash, where 4,600 feet of perennial stream and adjacent riparian vegetation provide critical habitat for several wildlife and aquatic species protected under the Endangered Species Act. The stream has been altered by prior construction of irrigation diversions, gravel mining, and removal of riparian vegetation, resulting in the loss of instream and riparian vegetation and disconnected floodplains. The stream alteration has also resulted in the loss of native species and increased non-native invasive species and changes in ecological cycles. With the goal of improving habitat extent and quality for native threatened and endangered species, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is considering establishing perennial streams through braided side channels by constructing beaver dam analogs, excavating side channel connectors, and grading an irrigation reservoir berm on the floodplain. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provided hydraulic modeling to assist the BLM in evaluating how possible restoration modifications could affect the extent of aquatic, riparian, and other habitat types. Three two-dimensional (2-D) hydraulic models were developed to simulate 2021 conditions (when most of the topographic data were collected), minor restoration modifications (one excavated side channel and a beaver dam analog), and major restoration modifications (three excavated side channels, a beaver dam analog, and an excavated and graded area to remove the irrigation reservoir) to determine streamflow-inundation extents and hydraulic characteristics (depth and velocity) for base flow and various flood (50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, and 1-percent annual exceedance probability [AEP]) scenarios. An average summer base flow of 0.92 cubic feet per second was estimated based on data from a USGS streamgage in the study area. The 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, and 1-percent AEP streamflows were estimated based on a flood-frequency analysis of data from the streamgage. The base flow and AEP floods were combined with surveyed topographic data to create a 2-D unsteady hydraulic model. The hydraulic model was used to simulate the base flow and flood-inundation extents and hydraulic characteristics under 2021 conditions and with two possible restoration modification scenarios. Under 2021 conditions, flow remains in a single channel until the most downstream end of the modeled reach, where flow then expands into slower velocity pools. During floods, streamflow begins to enter the side channels at the 50-percent flood, expands into the east floodplain at 20-percent flood, and flows in the irrigation reservoir at 4-percent flood. Compared to 2021 conditions with no terrain modification, base flow under the possible restoration modifications enters and remains in the side channels, thus increasing the likelihood of expanding riparian habitat. Additionally, during floods under the major restoration modifications, streamflow expands into the modified terrain surrounding the irrigation reservoir at 10-percent AEP, as opposed to 4-percent AEP under 2021 conditions. For all modeled streamflow scenarios, streamflow is deepest in the center of the main and side channels, as well as the downstream pooled areas. Streamflow is fastest in the narrow sections of the channels, especially in the upper 1,220 feet of the modeled reach.

Nevada

The past, present, and future of coral reef growth in the Florida Keys

Coral-reef degradation is driving global-scale reductions in reef-building capacity and the ecological, geological, and socioeconomic functions it supports. The persistence of those essential functions will depend on whether coral-reef management is able to rebalance the competing processes of reef accretion and erosion. Here, we reconstructed census-based carbonate budgets of 46 reefs throughout the Florida Keys from 1996 to 2019. We evaluated the environmental and ecological drivers of changing budget states and compared historical trends in reef-accretion potential to millennial-scale baselines of accretion from reef cores and future projections with coral restoration. We found that historically, most reefs had positive carbonate budgets, and many had reef-accretion potential comparable to the ~3 mm year −1 average accretion rate during the peak of regional reef building ~7000 years ago; however, declines in reef-building Acropora palmata and Orbicella spp. corals following a series of thermal stress events and coral disease outbreaks resulted in a shift from positive to negative budgets for most reefs in the region. By 2019, only ~15% of reefs had positive net carbonate production. Most of those reefs were in inshore, Lower Keys patch-reef habitats with low water clarity, supporting the hypothesis that environments with naturally low irradiance may provide a refugia from thermal stress. We caution that our estimated carbonate budgets are likely overly optimistic; comparison of reef-accretion potential to measured accretion from reef cores suggests that, by not accounting for the role of nonbiological physical and chemical erosion, census-based carbonate budgets may underestimate total erosion by ~1 mm year −1 (−1.15 kg CaCO 3 m −2 year −1 ). Although the present state of Florida's reefs is dire, we demonstrate that the restoration of reef-building corals has the potential to help mitigate declines in reef accretion in some locations, which could allow some key ecosystem functions to be maintained until the threat of global climate change is addressed.

Florida

Implications of multi-scale sea level and climate variability for coastal resources

While secular changes in regional sea levels and their implications for coastal zone management have been studied extensively, less attention is being paid to natural fluctuations in sea levels, whose interaction with a higher mean level could have significant impacts on low-lying areas, such as wetlands. Here, the long record of sea level at Key West, FL is studied in terms of both the secular trend and the multi-scale sea level variations. This analysis is then used to explore implications for the Everglades National Park (ENP), which is recognized internationally for its ecological significance, and is the site of the largest wetland restoration project in the world. Very shallow topographic gradients (3–6 cm per km) make the region susceptible to small changes in sea level. Observations of surface water levels from a monitoring network within ENP exhibit both the long-term trends and the interannual-to-(multi)decadal variability that are observed in the Key West record. Water levels recorded at four long-term monitoring stations within ENP exhibit increasing trends approximately equal to or larger than the long-term trend at Key West. Time- and frequency-domain analyses highlight the potential influence of climate mechanisms, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), on Key West sea levels and marsh water levels, and the potential modulation of their influence by the background state of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures. In particular, the Key West sea levels are found to be positively correlated with the NAO index, while the two series exhibit high spectral power during the transition to a cold Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The correlation between the Key West sea levels and the NINO3 Index reverses its sign in coincidence with a reversal of the AMO phase. Water levels in ENP are also influenced by precipitation and freshwater releases from the northern boundary of the Park. The analysis of both climate variability and climate change in such wetlands is needed to inform management practices in coastal wetland zones around the world.

Regional Environmental Change

Using simulated historical time series to prioritize fuel treatments on landscapes across the United States: The LANDFIRE prototype project

Canopy and surface fuels in many fire-prone forests of the United States have increased over the last 70 years as a result of modern fire exclusion policies, grazing, and other land management activities. The Healthy Forest Restoration Act and National Fire Plan establish a national commitment to reduce fire hazard and restore fire-adapted ecosystems across the USA. The primary index used to prioritize treatment areas across the nation is Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) computed as departures of current conditions from the historical fire and landscape conditions. This paper describes a process that uses an extensive set of ecological models to map FRCC from a departure statistic computed from simulated time series of historical landscape composition. This mapping process uses a data-driven, biophysical approach where georeferenced field data, biogeochemical simulation models, and spatial data libraries are integrated using spatial statistical modeling to map environmental gradients that are then used to predict vegetation and fuels characteristics over space. These characteristics are then fed into a landscape fire and succession simulation model to simulate a time series of historical landscape compositions that are then compared to the composition of current landscapes to compute departure, and the FRCC values. Intermediate products from this process are then used to create ancillary vegetation, fuels, and fire regime layers that are useful in the eventual planning and implementation of fuel and restoration treatments at local scales. The complex integration of varied ecological models at different scales is described and problems encountered during the implementation of this process in the LANDFIRE prototype project are addressed.

Ecological Modelling

Effectiveness of environmental flows for riparian restoration in arid regions: A tale of four rivers

Environmental flows have become important restoration tools on regulated rivers. However, environmental flows are often constrained by other demands within the river system and thus typically are comprised of smaller water volumes than the natural flows they are meant to replace, which can limit their functional efficacy. We review environmental flow programs aimed at restoring riparian vegetation on four arid zone rivers: the Tarim River in China; the Bill Williams River in Arizona, U.S.; the delta of the Colorado River in Mexico; and the Murrumbidgee River in southern Australia. Our goal is to determine what worked and what did not work to accomplish restoration goals. The lower Tarim River in China formerly formed a “green corridor” across the Taklamakan Desert. The riparian zone deteriorated due to diversion of surface and groundwater for irrigated agriculture. A massive restoration program began in 2000 with release of 1038 million cubic meters of water over the first three years. Groundwater levels rose but the ecological response was less than expected politically, socially and within the scientific community. However, releases continued and by 2015 portions of the original iconic Populus euphratica (Euphrates poplar) forest were reestablished. The natural flow regime of the Bill Williams River was disrupted by construction of a dam in 1968, dramatically reducing peak flows along with associated fluvial processes. As a result, the channel narrowed and riparian vegetation expanded and was comprised largely of an introduced shrub species ( Tamarix spp.). Environmental flow releases including small, managed floods and sustained base flows have been implemented since the mid 1990’s to promote establishment and maintenance of native riparian trees (cottonwoods and willows) and have been successful, although in a “downsized” portion of the valley bottom. Experience from the Bill Williams was used to help design the Minute 319 environmental flow in the delta of the Colorado River in 2014. Water was released as a short, one-time pulse during spring with the intent of starting new cohorts of cottonwood and willow. However, fluvial disturbance was limited by the relatively small magnitude pulse, low flows did not continue throughout the growing season in some reaches, native tree recruitment was low, and most of the new plants recruited were Tamarix . The inundated portion of the floodplain did respond with a temporary increase in greenness as measured by satellite vegetation indices, however. The Murrumbidgee River in Australia is a tributary in the Murray-Darling River Basin, which supports iconic red gum ( Eucalyptus camaldulensis ) forests that depend on near-yearly floods for maintenance. During the recent Millennial Drought (2000–2010) environmental flows were provided on an experimental basis to small portions of the Yanga National Forest to see how much water was needed. As with the Colorado River delta, gains in vegetation vigor as measured by satellite vegetation indices following the flows were temporary. Environmental flows in the Bill Williams were able to restore enough overbank flooding and fluvial disturbance to promote some establishment of new cohorts of trees, but on the Colorado and Murrumbidgee Rivers larger volumes of total flows released over longer periods and targeted restoration will be needed to restore the ecosystems. A measure of success in restoring the Euphrates poplar forest on the Tarim and germinating new chorts of willows on the Bill Williams has been achieved after 15–20 years of environmental flows, but the Colorado River delta and Murrumbidgee Rivers have only received one or two flows. Success in enhancing native trees in the Colorado delta has been achieved in restoration plots, but the Murrumbidgee will require large overbank flows on a continuing schedule to rejuvenate the red gum forest.

Ecological Engineering