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At least 505 records · Page 28Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Adaptive population divergence and directional gene flow across steep elevational gradients in a climate‐sensitive mammal

The American pika is a thermally sensitive, alpine lagomorph species. Recent climate-associated population extirpations and genetic signatures of reduced population sizes range-wide indicate the viability of this species is sensitive to climate change. To test for potential adaptive responses to climate stress, we sampled pikas along two elevational gradients (each ~470 to 1640 m) and employed three outlier detection methods, BAYESCAN, LFMM, and BAYPASS, to scan for genotype-environment associations in samples genotyped at 30,763 SNP loci. We resolved 173 loci with robust evidence of natural selection detected by either two independent analyses or replicated in both transects. A BLASTN search of these outlier loci revealed several genes associated with metabolic function and oxygen transport, indicating natural selection from thermal stress and hypoxia. We also found evidence of directional gene flow primarily downslope from large high-elevation populations and reduced gene flow at outlier loci, a pattern suggesting potential impediments to the upward elevational movement of adaptive alleles in response to contemporary climate change. Finally, we documented evidence of reduced genetic diversity associated the south-facing transect and an increase in corticosterone stress levels associated with inbreeding. This study suggests the American pika is already undergoing climate-associated natural selection at multiple genomic regions. Further analysis is needed to determine if the rate of climate adaptation in the American pika and other thermally sensitive species will be able to keep pace with rapidly changing climate conditions.

Washington↗
USGS2021

Harnessing landscape genomics to identify future climate resilient genotypes in a desert annual

Local adaptation features critically in shaping species responses to changing environments, complicating efforts to revegetate degraded areas. Rapid climate change poses an additional challenge that could reduce fitness of even locally sourced seeds in restoration. Predictive restoration strategies that apply seeds with favourable adaptations to future climate may promote long‐term resilience. Landscape genomics is increasingly used to assess spatial patterns in local adaption and may represent a cost‐efficient approach for identifying future‐adapted genotypes. To demonstrate such an approach, we genotyped 760 plants from 64 Mojave Desert populations of the desert annual Plantago ovata . Genome scans on 5,960 SNPs identified 184 potentially adaptive loci related to climate and satellite vegetation metrics. Causal modelling indicated that variation in potentially adaptive loci was not confounded by isolation by distance or isolation by habitat resistance. A generalized dissimilarity model (GDM) attributed spatial turnover in potentially adaptive loci to temperature, precipitation and NDVI amplitude, a measure of vegetation green‐up potential. By integrating a species distribution model (SDM), we find evidence that summer maximum temperature may both constrain the range of P. ovata and drive adaptive divergence in populations exposed to higher temperatures. Within the species’ current range, warm‐adapted genotypes are predicted to experience a fivefold expansion in climate niche by midcentury and could harbour key adaptations to cope with future climate. We recommend eight seed transfer zones and project each zone into its relative position in future climate. Prioritizing seed collection efforts on genotypes with expanding future habitat represents a promising strategy for restoration practitioners to address rapidly changing climates.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2010

The changing effects of Alaska’s boreal forests on the climate system

In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. In this manuscript, we examine the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in Alaska. Research generally suggests that the net effect of a warming climate is a positive regional feedback to warming. Currently, the primary positive climate feedbacks are likely related to decreases in surface albedo due to decreases in snow cover. Fewer negative feedbacks have been identified, and they may not be large enough to counterbalance the large positive feedbacks. These positive feedbacks are most pronounced at the regional scale and reduce the resilience of the boreal vegetation – climate system by amplifying the rate of regional warming. Given the recent warming in this region, the large variety of associated mechanisms that can alter terrestrial ecosystems and influence the climate system, and a reduction in the boreal forest resilience, there is a strong need to continue to quantify and evaluate the feedback pathways.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Hierarchical stochastic modeling of large river ecosystems and fish growth across spatio-temporal scales and climate models: the Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

We present a hierarchical series of spatially decreasing and temporally increasing models to evaluate the uncertainty in the atmosphere – ocean global climate model (AOGCM) and the regional climate model (RCM) relative to the uncertainty in the somatic growth of the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). For effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, cli- mate output simulated by coarse-resolution AOGCMs and RCMs must be downscaled to basins to river hydrology to population response. One needs to transfer the information from these climate simulations down to the individual scale in a way that minimizes extrapolation and can account for spatio-temporal variability in the intervening stages. The goal is a framework to determine whether, given uncertainties in the climate models and the biological response, meaningful inference can still be made. The non-linear downscaling of climate information to the river scale requires that one realistically account for spatial and temporal variability across scale. Our down- scaling procedure includes the use of fixed/calibrated hydrological flow and temperature models coupled with a stochastically parameterized sturgeon bioenergetics model. We show that, although there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with both the climate model output and the fish growth process, one can establish significant differences in fish growth distributions between models, and between future and current climates for a given model.

Missouri River basin↗
USGS2014

A design for a sustained assessment of climate forcings and feedbacks on land use land cover change

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) significantly influences the climate system. Hence, to prepare the nation for future climate change and variability, a sustained assessment of LULCC and its climatic impacts needs to be undertaken. To address this objective, not only do we need to determine contemporary trends in land use and land cover that affect, or are affected by, weather and climate but also identify sectors and regions that are most affected by weather and climate variability. Moreover, it is critical that we recognize land cover and regions that are most vulnerable to climate change and how end-use practices are adapting to climate change. This paper identifies a series of steps that need to be undertaken to address these key items. In addition, national-scale institutional capabilities are identified and discussed. Included in the discussions are challenges and opportunities for collaboration among these institutions for a sustained assessment.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗
USGS2023

Mangrove forests and climate change: Impacts and interactions

The position of mangrove forests in the dynamic intertidal zone means that they are expected to be heavily impacted by climate change. Much focus is put on mangroves and their response to sea-level rise, but this ecosystem is exposed to a much broader range of climate change stressors, including increased storminess and waves, more dynamic and unpredictable precipitation patterns, and increases in air and sea surface temperatures, particularly at their latitudinal limits. We show that individual climate change stressors can have (rarely considered) positive, as well as negative impacts on mangroves and associated ecosystem functions such as carbon sequestration. While we generally study climate change stressors individually, they are not expected to act in isolation with other climate change stressors or with anthropogenic stressors. We present a stressor interaction framework previously suggested for coral reefs, and adapt it for use in mangroves, using the recent mangrove dieback in northern Australia as a case study. We show the benefits of moving mangrove and climate change research beyond the study of single stressors and towards identifying key synergistic and antagonistic interactions between climate change stressors.

Book chapter↗
USGS2011

Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders

Background: Species distribution models are often used to characterize a species' native range climate, so as to identify sites elsewhere in the world that may be climatically similar and therefore at risk of invasion by the species. This endeavor provoked intense public controversy over recent attempts to model areas at risk of invasion by the Indian Python (Python molurus). We evaluated a number of MaxEnt models on this species to assess MaxEnt's utility for vertebrate climate matching. Methodology/Principal Findings: Overall, we found MaxEnt models to be very sensitive to modeling choices and selection of input localities and background regions. As used, MaxEnt invoked minimal protections against data dredging, multi-collinearity of explanatory axes, and overfitting. As used, MaxEnt endeavored to identify a single ideal climate, whereas different climatic considerations may determine range boundaries in different parts of the native range. MaxEnt was extremely sensitive to both the choice of background locations for the python, and to selection of presence points: inclusion of just four erroneous localities was responsible for Pyron et al.'s conclusion that no additional portions of the U.S. mainland were at risk of python invasion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt overfit the realized climate space, identifying models with about 60 parameters, about five times the number of parameters justifiable when optimized on the basis of Akaike's Information Criterion. Conclusions/Significance: When used with default settings, MaxEnt may not be an appropriate vehicle for identifying all sites at risk of colonization. Model instability and dearth of protections against overfitting, multi-collinearity, and data dredging may combine with a failure to distinguish fundamental from realized climate envelopes to produce models of limited utility. A priori identification of biologically realistic model structure, combined with computational protections against these statistical problems, may produce more robust models of invasion risk.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2015

Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii ) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

Oregon↗
USGS2016

Coupled downscaled climate models and ecophysiological metrics forecast habitat compression for an endangered estuarine fish

Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species’ persistence across spatial and temporal scales. Integrating climate change assessments into biological resource management, such as conserving endangered species, is a substantial challenge, partly due to a mismatch between global climate forecasts and local or regional conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate how outputs of global climate change models can be downscaled to the watershed scale, and then coupled with ecophysiological metrics to assess climate change effects on organisms of conservation concern. We employed models to estimate future water temperatures (2010–2099) under several climate change scenarios within the large heterogeneous San Francisco Estuary. We then assessed the warming effects on the endangered, endemic Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus , by integrating localized projected water temperatures with thermal sensitivity metrics (tolerance, spawning and maturation windows, and sublethal stress thresholds) across life stages. Lethal temperatures occurred under several scenarios, but sublethal effects resulting from chronic stressful temperatures were more common across the estuary (median >60 days above threshold for >50% locations by the end of the century). Behavioral avoidance of such stressful temperatures would make a large portion of the potential range of Delta Smelt unavailable during the summer and fall. Since Delta Smelt are not likely to migrate to other estuaries, these changes are likely to result in substantial habitat compression. Additionally, the Delta Smelt maturation window was shortened by 18–85 days, revealing cumulative effects of stressful summer and fall temperatures with early initiation of spring spawning that may negatively impact fitness. Our findings highlight the value of integrating sublethal thresholds, life history, and in situ thermal heterogeneity into global change impact assessments. As downscaled climate models are becoming widely available, we conclude that similar assessments at management-relevant scales will improve the scientific basis for resource management decisions.

California↗
USGS2019

Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units, and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories.

California↗
USGS2002

Economic and ecological impacts of abrupt climate change

M ost studies of the potential ecological and economic impacts of climate change and greenhouse warming have focused on scenarios that involve gradual climate change. Accumulating evidence from the paleosciences, however, shows that the patterns of change suggested by projections of future climate change are not representative of past climatic changes or of the transitions between different climatic regimes. In particular, many recent paleostudies indicate that current climate is much more stable than were climates in earlier periods.

Book chapter↗
USGS2008

Arctic climate change and its impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic

Arctic climate change from the Paleocene epoch to the present is reconstructed with the objective of assessing its recent and future impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic. A recurring theme in Earth's paleoclimate record is the importance of the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere in regulating global climate on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A second recurring theme in this record is the importance of freshwater export from the Arctic in regulating global- to basin-scale ocean circulation patterns and climate. Since the 1970s, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. In addition, modal shifts in the atmosphere have altered Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and the export of freshwater into the North Atlantic. The combination of these processes has resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean and the emergence of salinity anomalies that have periodically freshened waters in the North Atlantic. Since the early 1990s, changes in Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and freshwater export have been associated with two types of ecological responses in the North Atlantic. The first of these responses has been an ongoing series of biogeographic range expansions by boreal plankton, including renewal of the trans-Arctic exchanges of Pacific species with the Atlantic. The second response was a dramatic regime shift in the shelf ecosystems of the Northwest Atlantic that occurred during the early 1990s. This regime shift resulted from freshening and stratification of the shelf waters, which in turn could be linked to changes in the abundances and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher trophic-level consumer populations. It is predicted that the recently observed ecological responses to Arctic climate change in the North Atlantic will continue into the near future if current trends in sea ice, freshwater export, and surface ocean salinity continue. It is more difficult to predict ecological responses to abrupt climate change in the more distant future as tipping points in the Earth's climate system are exceeded.

Ecology↗
USGS2009

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes from three contrasting evergreen forests: The role of forest dynamics and climate

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed ?? 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results also show that the variation of annual carbon fluxes poses an important challenge in our ability to determine whether an ecosystem is a source, a sink, or is neutral in regard to CO 2 at longer timescales. In simulations where climate change negatively affected ecosystem carbon stores, there was a 20% chance of committing Type II error, even with 20 years of sequential data. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗
USGS2007

Climate variability controls on unsaturated water and chemical movement, High Plains aquifer, USA

Responses in the vadose zone and groundwater to interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal climate variability have important implications for groundwater resource sustainability, yet they are poorly documented and not well understood in most aquifers of the USA. This investigation systematically examines the role of interannual to multidecadal climate variability on groundwater levels, deep infiltration (3–23 m) events, and downward displacement (>1 m) of chloride and nitrate reservoirs in thick (15–50 m) vadose zones across the regionally extensive High Plains aquifer. Such vadose zone responses are unexpected across much of the aquifer given a priori that unsaturated total-potential profiles indicate upward water movement from the water table toward the root zone, mean annual potential evapotranspiration exceeds mean annual precipitation, and millennia-scale evapoconcentration results in substantial vadose zone chloride and nitrate reservoirs. Using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to reconstruct precipitation and groundwater level time-series components, variability was identified in all time series as partially coincident with known climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10–25 yr) and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2–6 yr). Using these lag-correlated hydrologic time series, a new method is demonstrated to estimate climate-varying unsaturated water flux. The results suggest the importance of interannual to interdecadal climate variability on water-flux estimation in thick vadose zones and provide better understanding of the climate-induced transients responsible for the observed deep infiltration and chemical-mobilization events. Based on these results, we discuss implications for climate-related sustainability of the High Plains aquifer.

Vadose Zone Journal↗
USGS2022

Integrating climate-informed planning into State Wildlife Action Plans in the north central United States

State fish and wildlife agencies are required to submit a State Wildlife Action Plan (SWAP) every 10 years to be eligible for grants through the State Wildlife Grant Program. With the next round of revisions due in 2025, the U.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center is evaluating how to best support states with further integrating climate-informed planning in their SWAPs. Here, we summarize how states in the North Central region, which includes Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, addressed adaptation planning in their 2015 SWAPs. We review climate adaptation considerations in required SWAP elements one through five, including species, habitats, threats, conservation actions, and conservation monitoring, respectively. We also include a list of potential strategies that the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center could use to support states in the North Central region with further advancing the integration of climate informed planning in ongoing and future SWAP revisions. These strategies were primarily identified during meetings in 2021 with six of seven state fish and wildlife agencies in the North Central region where we discussed their priority needs relating to climate-informed planning. Our hope is that these strategies will enhance existing efforts in the region to advance the integration of climate change in conservation planning.

Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota,↗
USGS2013

The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center annual report for 2012

Welcome to the inaugural edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) and the Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) annual report. In 2008, Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The center was formed to respond to the demands of natural resource managers for rigorous scientific information and effective tools for assessing and responding to climate change. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Va., the NCCWSC has invested more than $70 million in cutting-edge climate change research and, in response to Secretarial Order No. 3289,established and is managing eight regional Department of Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs). The mission of the NCCWSC is to provide natural resource managers with the tools and information they need to develop and execute management strategies that address the impacts of climate and other ongoing global changes on fish and wildlife and their habitats. The DOI CSCs are joint Federal-university partnerships that focus their scientific work on regional priorities identified by DOI Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as well as Federal, State, Tribal, and other resource managers. The CSCs provide access to a wide range of scientific capabilities through their network of university partners along with the USGS and other Federal agency scientists. The focus of the NCCWSC on multiregion and national priorities complements the regionally focused agendas of the CSCs.

Circular↗
USGS2009

Framework for a U.S. Geological Survey hydrologic climate-response program in Maine

It is important to monitor hydrologic systems in the United States that could change dramatically over the short term as a result of climate change. Many ecological effects of climate change can be understood only if hydrologic data networks are in place. Because of its humid, temperate climate and its substantial annual snowpack, Maine’s seasonal water cycle is sensitive to air temperature changes (Hodgkins and others, 2003). Monitoring of relevant hydrologic data would provide important baseline information against which future climate change can be measured. A series of recent investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has documented changes in several components of the water cycle, including earlier snowmelt runoff in Maine during the last 30 to 40 years (Hodgkins and others, 2003), earlier lake- and river-ice breakups (Hodgkins and others, 2002; Hodgkins and others, 2005), and a denser and thinner late-winter snowpack (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2006). Snowmelt runoff timing was measured as the date, each year, by which half of the total winter-spring streamflow passed a streamflow-gaging station. Historical snowmelt runoff timing for the Piscataquis River in central Maine is shown in figure 1 as an example. Results of climate projections input to hydrologic models indicate that hydrologic trends, such as earlier spring snowmelt runoff, are expected to continue into the future (Hayhoe and others, 2007). These trends could affect species at the southern edge of their range in Maine, such as Atlantic salmon and Canada lynx, and may also affect availability of water for human use. This fact sheet describes the framework of a hydrologic climate-response program that would improve understanding of the effects of future climate change in Maine.

Maine↗
USGS2010

Modeling Climate Change and Sturgeon Populations in the Missouri River

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC), in collaboration with researchers from the University of Missouri and Iowa State University, is conducting research to address effects of climate change on sturgeon populations (Scaphirhynchus spp.) in the Missouri River. The CERC is conducting laboratory, field, and modeling research to identify causative factors for the responses of fish populations to natural and human-induced environmental changes and using this information to understand sensitivity of sturgeon populations to potential climate change in the Missouri River drainage basin. Sturgeon response information is being used to parameterize models predicting future population trends. These models will provide a set of tools for natural resource managers to assess management strategies in the context of global climate change. This research complements and builds on the ongoing Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program (CSRP) at the CERC. The CSRP is designed to provide information critical to restoration of the Missouri River ecosystem and the endangered pallid sturgeon (S. albus). Current research is being funded by USGS through the National Climate Change Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) and the Science Support Partnership (SSP) Program that is held by the USGS and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The national mission of the NCCWSC is to improve the capacity of fish and wildlife agencies to respond to climate change and to address high-priority climate change effects on fish and wildlife. Within the national context, the NCCWSC research on the Missouri River focuses on temporal and spatial downscaling and associated uncertainty in modeling climate change effects on sturgeon species in the Missouri River. The SSP research focuses on improving survival and population estimates for pallid sturgeon population models.

Fact Sheet↗