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At least 487 records · Page 27Linked to original sources

USGS2023

Landslide initiation thresholds in data-sparse regions: Application to landslide early warning criteria in Sitka, Alaska, USA

Probabilistic models to inform landslide early warning systems often rely on rainfall totals observed during past events with landslides. However, these models are generally developed for broad regions using large catalogs, with dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of landslide occurrences. This study evaluates strategies for training landslide forecasting models with a scanty record of landslide-triggering events, which is a typical limitation in remote, sparsely populated regions. We evaluate 136 statistical models trained on a precipitation dataset with five landslide-triggering precipitation events recorded near Sitka, Alaska, USA, as well as > 6000 d of non-triggering rainfall (2002–2020). We also conduct extensive statistical evaluation for three primary purposes: (1) to select the best-fitting models, (2) to evaluate performance of the preferred models, and (3) to select and evaluate warning thresholds. We use Akaike, Bayesian, and leave-one-out information criteria to compare the 136 models, which are trained on different cumulative precipitation variables at time intervals ranging from 1 h to 2 weeks, using both frequentist and Bayesian methods to estimate the daily probability and intensity of potential landslide occurrence (logistic regression and Poisson regression). We evaluate the best-fit models using leave-one-out validation as well as by testing a subset of the data. Despite this sparse landslide inventory, we find that probabilistic models can effectively distinguish days with landslides from days without slide activity. Our statistical analyses show that 3 h precipitation totals are the best predictor of elevated landslide hazard, and adding antecedent precipitation (days to weeks) did not improve model performance. This relatively short timescale of precipitation combined with the limited role of antecedent conditions likely reflects the rapid draining of porous colluvial soils on the very steep hillslopes around Sitka. Although frequentist and Bayesian inferences produce similar estimates of landslide hazard, they do have different implications for use and interpretation: frequentist models are familiar and easy to implement, but Bayesian models capture the rare-events problem more explicitly and allow for better understanding of parameter uncertainty given the available data. We use the resulting estimates of daily landslide probability to establish two decision boundaries that define three levels of warning. With these decision boundaries, the frequentist logistic regression model incorporates National Weather Service quantitative precipitation forecasts into a real-time landslide early warning “dashboard” system ( https://sitkalandslide.org/ , last access: 9 October 2023). This dashboard provides accessible and data-driven situational awareness for community members and emergency managers.

Alaska↗

USGS2003

Lithogeochemistry of Carlin-type gold mineralization in the Gold Bar district, Battle Mountain-Eureka trend, Nevada

The Gold Bar district contains five Carlin-type gold deposits and four resources for a combined gold endowment of 1.6 M oz [50 t]. The gold deposits are hosted in Devonian carbonate rocks below parautochthonous and allochthonous Paleozoic siliciclastic rocks emplaced during the Early Mississippian Antler orogeny. The district is in the Battle Mountain-Eureka trend, a long-lived structural feature that localized intrusions and ore deposits of different types and ages. The whole-rock geochemistry of four different mineralized and unmineralized Devonian carbonate rock units (two favorable and two unfavorable) were determined and interpreted in the context of the regional geology. A combination of basic statistics, R-mode factor analysis, isocon plots, and alteration diagrams were utilized to (1) identify favorable geochemical attributes of the host rocks, (2) characterize alteration and associated element enrichments and depletions, and (3) identify the mechanism of gold precipitation. This approach also led to the recognition of other types of alteration and mineralization in host rocks previously thought to be solely affected by Carlin-type mineralization. Unit 2 of the Upper Member of the Denay Formation, with the highest Al2O3, Fe2O3 and SiO2 contents and the lowest CaO content, is the most favorable host rock. Based on the high regression coefficients of data arrays on X-Y plots that project toward the origin, Al2O3 and TiO2 were immobile and K2O and Fe2O3 were relatively immobile during alteration and mineralization. Specific element associations identified by factor analysis are also prominent on isocon diagrams that compare the composition of fresh and altered equivalents of the same rock units. The most prominent associations are: Au, As, Sb, SiO2, TI, -CaO and -LOI, the main gold mineralizing event and related silicification and decalcification; Cd, Zn, Ag, P, Ni and Tl, an early base metal event; and MgO, early dolomitization. Alteration diagrams, consisting of X-Y plots of SiO2/Al2O3, K2O/Al2O3, CO2/Al2O3, that documented in classic Carlin-type gold deposits in the region, but the size of the deposits and the intensity of alteration and mineralization are less. The presence of other types of mineralization in the Gold Bar district is also common to most of the other Carlin-type districts located in major mineral belts. The approach used in this study is well suited to the interpretation of multi-element geochemical data from other study areas with superimposed alteration and mineralization. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Ore Geology Reviews↗

USGS2024

Factors contributing to pesticide contamination in riverine systems: The role of wastewater and landscape sources

Wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) discharges can be a source of organic contaminants, including pesticides, to rivers. An integrated model was developed for the Potomac River watershed (PRW) to determine the amount of accumulated wastewater percentage of streamflow (ACCWW) and calculate predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) for 14 pesticides in non-tidal National Hydrography Dataset Plus Version 2.1 stream segments. Predicted environmental concentrations were compared to measured environmental concentrations (MECs) from 32 stream sites that represented a range of ACCWW and land use to evaluate model performance and to assess possible non-WWTP loading sources. Statistical agreement between PECs and MECs was strongest for insecticides, followed by fungicides and herbicides. Principal component analysis utilizing optical fluorescence and ancillary water quality data identified wastewater and urban runoff sources. Pesticides that indicated relatively larger sources from WWTPs included dinotefuran, fipronil, carbendazim, thiabendazole, and prometon whereas imidacloprid, azoxystrobin, propiconazole, tebuconazole, and diuron were more related to urban runoff. In addition, PECs generally comprised a low proportion of MECs, which indicates possible dominant loading sources beyond WWTP discharges. Cumulative potential toxicity was higher for sites with greater ACCWW and/or located in developed areas. Imidacloprid, fipronil, and carbendazim accounted for the largest portion of predicted potential toxicity across sites. The chronic aquatic life toxicity benchmarks for freshwater invertebrates were exceeded for 82 % of the imidacloprid detections ( n = 28) and 47 % of the fipronil detections ( n = 19). These results highlight the ecological implications of pesticide contamination from WWTP discharges and also the potential legacy effects from accumulated soil and groundwater sources. Pesticide management strategies that mitigate both current and historical impacts may improve the health of aquatic ecosystems.

Potomac River watershed↗

USGS2014

A multispecies statistical age-structured model to assess predator-prey balance: application to an intensively managed Lake Michigan pelagic fish community

Using a Bayesian model fitting approach, we developed a multispecies statistical catch-at-age model to assess trade-offs between predatory demands and prey productivities, focusing on the Lake Michigan pelagic fish community. We assessed these trade-offs in terms of predation mortalities and productivities of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) and functional responses of salmonines. Our predation mortality estimates suggest that salmonine consumption has been a major driver of historical fluctuations in prey abundance, with sharp declines in alewife abundance in the 1980s and 2000s coinciding with estimated increases in predation mortalities. While Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) were food limited during periods of low alewife abundance, other salmonines appeared to maintain a (near) maximum per-predator consumption across all observed prey densities, suggesting that feedback mechanisms are unlikely to help maintain a balance between predator consumption and prey productivity in Lake Michigan. This study demonstrates that a multispecies modeling approach that combines stock assessment methods with explicit consideration of predator–prey interactions could provide the basis for tactical decision-making from a broader ecosystem perspective.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2019

An integrated statistical and deterministic hydrologic model for analyzing trace organic contaminants in commercial and high-density residential stormwater runoff

Urbanization can dramatically alter stormwater, both the quantity and quality, by engendering larger peak flows and through the introduction of contaminants into runoff. The current study builds on previous research that developed relationships between a suite of nonpoint source contaminants, known as trace organic contaminants (TOrCs), and hydrologic measurements for a series of storms (one site had 15 storms and the other had 19 storms) in Madison, WI, by creating statistical and deterministic models. Correlations and regressions were calculated between TOrC loads and hydrologic measurements for a series of storms for both a commercial site and a high-density residential site. From the regressions, it became evident that loading responses to precipitation were not the same between the two land covers for some TOrCs, indicating varying load responses for TOrCs depending on land cover. The regressions were utilized in the Source Loading and Management Model for Windows (WinSLAMM), an event-based hydrologic and water-quality model, to demonstrate that it can be used to model novel contaminants. The regressions were also used to estimate mean annual loads of TOrCs from all commercial and high-density residential areas in Madison, WI, for the watersheds to which Madison discharges its stormwater. The mean annual loads varied between grams per year to tens of thousands of grams per year depending on the TOrC and watershed. This work will ultimately allow managers to simulate the presence of, establish total maximum daily loads for, and mitigate the loads of TOrCs through stormwater best management practices.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2025

A framework tool that applies weight-of-evidence integration to the analysis of existing datasets to guide freshwater conservation

The overarching issue we address here is how to extract clear and actionable ecological and management insights from real-world field data that often do not satisfy traditional statistical assumptions. Toward this goal, we developed a general 12+6 step adaptive management framework tool. We applied this framework tool to existing biodiversity monitoring data to create a proof-of-concept result that addresses the overarching question of “ why might a specific native stream fish taxon be present or absent at specific locations? ” Our multi-step framework tool links established steps and steps that are unique to our framework through weight-of evidence (WOE) integration, an approach that combines quantitative results from multiple visualization and statistical procedures. The systematic use of all steps in our framework can provide improved conservation outcomes compared to a single analysis. Advantages accrue from our approach because our framework tool refines the overarching goal into related sub-questions, applies a specific quantitative procedure to each sub-step, combines results from all sub-questions using a WOE integration, identifies testable questions that elucidate ambiguities and gaps revealed through WOE integration, and proposes practical field methods for obtaining this clarifying information through future research and data collections. The process of considering multiple visualizations and analyses as individual pieces of a shared puzzle offers a new way to approach the use of existing data. Our team-based approach transforms the collection and analysis of existing data into a series of field tests that can guide future actions (e.g., data collection-analysis events, restoration initiatives, research). Habitat and impact regressors will vary with taxa and system, but our structured process tool has broad generality for a range of conservation issues in which freshwater systems are threatened by human impacts.

Kansas↗

USGS2017

Using groundwater age distributions to understand changes in methyl tert-butyl ether (MtBE) concentrations in ambient groundwater, northeastern United States

Temporal changes in methyl tert-butyl ether (MtBE) concentrations in groundwater were evaluated in the northeastern United States, an area of the nation with widespread low-level detections of MtBE based on a national survey of wells selected to represent ambient conditions. MtBE use in the U.S. peaked in 1999 and was largely discontinued by 2007. Six well networks, each representing specific areas and well types (monitoring or supply wells), were each sampled at 10 year intervals between 1996 and 2012. Concentrations were decreasing or unchanged in most wells as of 2012, with the exception of a small number of wells where concentrations continue to increase. Statistically significant increasing concentrations were found in one network sampled for the second time shortly after the peak of MtBE use, and decreasing concentrations were found in two networks sampled for the second time about 10 years after the peak of MtBE use. Simulated concentrations from convolutions of estimates for concentrations of MtBE in recharge water with age distributions from environmental tracer data correctly predicted the direction of MtBE concentration changes in about 65 percent of individual wells. The best matches between simulated and observed concentrations were found when simulating recharge concentrations that followed the pattern of national MtBE use. Some observations were matched better when recharge was modeled as a plume moving past the well from a spill at one point in time. Modeling and sample results showed that wells with young median ages and narrow age distributions responded more quickly to changes in the contaminant source than wells with older median ages and broad age distributions. Well depth and aquifer type affect these responses. Regardless of the timing of decontamination, all of these aquifers show high susceptibility for contamination by a highly soluble, persistent constituent.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2022

From drought to deluge: Spatiotemporal variation in migration routing, survival, travel time and floodplain use of an endangered migratory fish

We developed a novel statistical model to relate the daily survival and migration dynamics of an endangered anadromous fish to river flow and water temperature during both extreme drought and severe flooding in an intensively managed river system. Our Bayesian temporally stratified multistate mark recapture model integrates over unobserved travel times and route transitions to efficiently estimate covariate relationships and includes an adjustment for telemetry tag battery failure. We applied the model to acoustic-tagged juvenile Sacramento river winter-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and found that survival decreased with decreasing river flows and increased water temperatures. We found that fish were likely to enter at a large floodplain during flood conditions and that survival in floodplain was comparable to the mainstem Sacramento river. Our study demonstrates the response of an endangered anadromous fish population to extreme spatial and temporal variability in habitat accessibility and quality. The general model framework we introduce here can be applied to telemetry of migratory fish through systems with multiple routes to efficiently estimate spatiotemporal variation in survival, travel time, and routing.

California↗

USGS2021

Clustering supported classification of ChemCam data from Gale crater, Mars

The Chemistry and Camera (ChemCam) instrument on board the MSL rover Curiosity has collected a very large and unique dataset of in-situ spectra and images of Mars since landing in August 2012. More than 800,000 single shot LIBS (laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy) spectra measured on more than 2,500 individual targets were returned so far by ChemCam. Such a dataset is ideally suited for the application of statistical methods for the recognition of patterns that are difficult to observe by humans. In this work, we develop an approach relying on the feature extraction method non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) and the repetition of k-means clustering to classify ChemCam spectra. A strong consistency of the clustering results among the repetitions were found, which allowed us to identify six clusters representing the dominant compositions measured by ChemCam in Gale crater so far. By tracking clusters across the rover traverse from landing to sol 2756, we are able to provide a chemostratigraphic overview of Gale crater from the ChemCam perspective. Transitions between major geologic groups (such as the Bradbury and the Mt. Sharp groups) are identifiable demonstrating that they are compositionally distinct, consistent with previous work. Compositional differences between their members also appear in the results. Furthermore, a first approach in which a random forest classifier was trained and validated with the obtained cluster assignments, reveals promising results for predicting cluster memberships of new ChemCam LIBS data acquired after sol 2756.

Earth and Space Science↗

USGS2023

Long-term water-quality constituent trends in the Little Arkansas River, south-central Kansas, 1995–2021

The Equus Beds aquifer and Cheney Reservoir are primary sources for the city of Wichita’s current (2023) water supply. The Equus Beds aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) project was developed by the city of Wichita in the early 1990s to meet future water demands using the Little Arkansas River as an artificial aquifer recharge water source during above-base-flow conditions. Little Arkansas River water is removed from the river at an ASR Facility intake structure, treated using National Primary Drinking Water Regulations as a guideline, and is infiltrated into the Equus Beds aquifer through recharge basins or injected into the aquifer through recharge wells for later use. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wichita, completed this study to quantify and characterize Little Arkansas River water-quality data. Data in this report can be used to evaluate changing conditions, provide science-based information for decision making, and help meet regulatory requirements. Continuous (hourly) physicochemical properties were measured, and discrete water-quality samples were collected from three Little Arkansas River sites located along the easternmost extent of the Equus Beds aquifer during 1995 through 2021 over a range of streamflow conditions. The Little Arkansas River at Highway 50 near Halstead, Kansas, streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 07143672; hereafter referred to as the “Highway 50 site”) is located upstream from the other two sites, and the Little Arkansas River near Sedgwick, Kans., streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 07144100; hereafter referred to as the “Sedgwick site”) is located downstream from the other two sites; these two sites bracket most of the easternmost part of the Equus Beds aquifer. The Little Arkansas River upstream of ASR Facility near Sedgwick, Kans., streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 375350097262800; hereafter referred to as the “Upstream ASR site”) is located between the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites, about 14.7 river miles (mi) downstream from the Highway 50 site, about 1.7 river mi upstream from the Sedgwick site, and immediately upstream from the ASR Facility intake structure. Surrogate models for water-quality constituents of interest (including bromide, dissolved organic carbon, 2-chloro-4-isopropylamino-6-amino- s -triazine [deethylatrazine], atrazine, and metolachlor) were updated or developed using continuously measured and concomitant discrete data. These surrogate models, along with previously developed regression models, were used to compute concentrations (at the Highway 50, Sedgwick, and Upstream ASR sites) and loads (at the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites) during the study period. Federal criteria were used to evaluate water quality. Where applicable, water-quality data were compared to Federal national drinking-water regulations. Flow-normalized water-quality constituent trends were evaluated using Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) statistical models and water-quality trends were described using WRTDS bootstrap tests. Continuously computed primary ion concentrations were generally larger at the Highway 50 site compared to the Sedgwick site. During the study period, the Federal secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL) for dissolved solids was exceeded 57 percent of the time at the Highway 50 site and 38 percent of the time at the Sedgwick site. Computed bromide concentrations were larger at the Highway 50 site and exceeded the city of Wichita treatment threshold about 70, 21, and 19 percent of the time at the Highway 50, Sedgwick, and Upstream ASR sites, respectively. Chloride concentrations exceeded the Federal SMCL about 16 percent of the time at the Highway 50 site and did not exceed the SMCL at the Sedgwick site. Continuous arsenic concentrations exceeded the Federal Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) 9 to 15 percent of the time at the Sedgwick and Highway 50 sites, respectively, during the study. Atrazine concentrations exceeded the Federal MCL 10 percent of the time at the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites and 14 percent of the time at the Upstream ASR site during the study; computed glyphosate concentrations at the Sedgwick site never exceeded the MCL during the study. Little Arkansas River flow-normalized primary ion concentrations during 1995 through 2021 generally had downward trends and decreases were generally larger at the Highway 50 site compared to the Sedgwick site. Dissolved solids and chloride concentrations decreased at the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites. Bromide had no trend at the Highway 50 site and a downward trend at the Sedgwick site. Nitrate plus nitrite and total phosphorus concentrations had upward trends at the Highway 50 site but downward trends at the Sedgwick site, whereas total organic carbon had upward trends at both sites. Nitrate plus nitrite, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total organic carbon fluxes had upward trends at the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites. Suspended-sediment concentrations had an upward trend at the Highway 50 site and had no trend at the Sedgwick site. Arsenic concentrations had downward trends at the Highway 50 and Sedgwick sites. About one-quarter to one-half of the Little Arkansas River loads, including nutrients and sediment, were transported during 1 percent of the time during the study. Because streamflows are highly sensitive to climatic variation and an increase of extreme precipitation events in the Great Plains is expected, similar disproportionately large pollutant loading events may increase into the future. Continuous measurement of physicochemical properties in near-real time allowed characterization of Little Arkansas River surface water during conditions and time scales that would not have been possible otherwise and served as a complement to discrete water-quality sampling. Continuation of this water-quality monitoring will provide data to characterize changing conditions in the Little Arkansas River and possibly identify new and changing trends. Information in this report allows the city of Wichita to make informed municipal water-supply decisions using past and present water-quality conditions and trends in the watershed.

Kansas↗

USGS2013

Woody vegetation communities of tidal freshwater swamps in South Carolina, Georgia and Florida (US) with comparisons to similar systems in the US and South America

Questions What are the general tree communities found in tidal freshwater swamps along four large coastal rivers in the southeastern United States (US)? How do these communities compare to other tidal freshwater swamps in the US and South America? Locations Tidal floodplains of major rivers along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the southeastern US: Savannah, Altamaha, Suwannee and Apalachicola Rivers. Methods An extensive survey of trees and shrubs was conducted to describe the communities from a range of tidal freshwater swamps. River basins studied include micro-tidal (Gulf coast) and meso-tidal (Atlantic coast) regimes, and study areas were located both near and distant to primary channels. A total of 128 plots (100 m2 each) were inventoried, distributed evenly over the Savannah and Altamaha Rivers along the Atlantic coast, and the Suwannee and Apalachicola Rivers along the Gulf coast. Multivariate statistics helped discern communities and the significant indicator species in each. Results Four general communities were characterized and named according to the strongest individual indicator species in each: Water Tupelo (Nyssa aquatica) Community, Swamp Tupelo (Nyssa biflora) Community, Dwarf Palmetto (Sabal minor) Community and Cabbage Palm (Sabal palmetto) Community. Conclusions Descriptions of most tidal freshwater swamps in the southeastern US fit within the communities described in this study. Because studies that make inferences between environmental drivers (e.g. salinity, hydroperiod, hurricanes) and specific community types are best applied to the same communities (but perhaps different river systems), this work provides a framework by which tidal freshwater forested wetlands can be accurately compared based on their tree communities. We suggest that, within the broad range of our inventories, the four communities described identify the primary associations that should be tracked within most tidal freshwater swamps of the US. However, we identify some river basins in the US that do not fit this construct. Diversity of major tree communities in tidal freshwater swamps outside the US is generally much lower (with the notable exception of Amazonian hardwood tidal várzea), as are basal area values.

Georgia;Florida;South Carolina↗

USGS2020

Flood-frequency estimation for very low annual exceedance probabilities using historical, paleoflood, and regional information with consideration of nonstationarity

Streamflow estimates for floods with an annual exceedance probability of 0.001 or lower are needed to accurately portray risks to critical infrastructure, such as nuclear powerplants and large dams. However, extrapolating flood-frequency curves developed from at-site systematic streamflow records to very low annual exceedance probabilities (less than 0.001) results in large uncertainties in the streamflow estimates. Traditionally, methods for statistically estimating flood frequency have relied on the systematic streamflow record, which provides a time series of annual maximum flood peaks, often including some historical peaks. However, most peak-flow records are less than 100 years, and uncertainties are large when trying to extrapolate magnitudes of very low annual exceedance probability events. Other data may be available that extend the record beyond the systematic dataset. Historical data are defined as data from outside the period of systematic records but within the period of human records. Examples of historical information include flood estimates from other agencies and newspaper accounts that can be translated to flood magnitude point estimates, interval estimates, or perception thresholds (such as a statement that an 1880 flood was the largest since 1869). Paleoflood data, which may also extend the dataset, include a broad range of information about flood occurrence or magnitude from sources like sediment deposits or tree rings. Several assumptions are made in flood-frequency analysis, and an understanding of whether the data conform to these assumptions is desired. A particularly difficult assumption to evaluate for flood-frequency analysis is the underlying assumption that the flood series is stationary—the assumption that a time series of peak flow varies around a constant mean within a particular range of values (constant variance). As the hydrologic community’s understanding of natural systems and anthropogenic effects on streamflows has evolved, the community has come to understand that many surface-water systems exhibit one or more forms of nonstationarity, and thus the stationarity assumption is often violated to some degree. However, there is currently (2020) no consensus among hydrologists regarding the most appropriate flood-frequency-analysis methods for nonstationary systems, and this topic remains an active area of research. A literature review was completed to summarize the state of the science of flood frequency. The literature review highlights tools available to detect nonstationarities and identifies approaches that include external information to inform flood-frequency analysis. To demonstrate methods for initial data analysis and for incorporating historical and paleoflood information in flood-frequency analysis, five sites were selected: the Red River of the North at James Avenue Pumping Station, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada; lower reach, Rapid Creek, South Dakota; Spring Creek, South Dakota; Cherry Creek near Melvin, Colorado; and Escalante River near Escalante, Utah. The sites were chosen for the availability of published historical and paleoflood data and for their geographic diversity and unique characteristics, which highlighted issues such as autocorrelation, change points, trends, outlier peaks, or short periods of record. An initial data analysis that involved examining records for autocorrelation, change points, and trends was completed for all sites. The flood-frequency analysis completed for this study used version 7.2 of the U.S. Geological Survey PeakFQ program. Multiple analyses were done on each site documenting the change in the flood-frequency curve when additional historical or paleoflood data were added. When other flood-frequency studies were available, their results were compared to the results here. The comparisons in some cases simply show the effect of additional years of data, whereas other comparisons show results from probability distributions or fitting methods other than those used in PeakFQ. For the Red River of the North, flood-frequency analysis shows that paleoflood data appear necessary to reasonably estimate very low annual exceedance probabilities. For the analysis of the lower reach of Rapid Creek and Spring Creek, paleoflood information helped put a high outlier from the systematic period in context; however, very low annual exceedance probabilities at these sites still had extraordinarily large confidence bounds. These sites also showed that paleoflood information might be transferred from one site to another, with the caveat that this is a case where we had existing paleoflood data to test the transfer of paleoflood information—this is not the case at many sites, and transferring paleoflood information requires assumptions about the comparability of floods at the sites. The Cherry Creek analysis affirmed the result of an earlier study that showed that the generalized Pareto distribution was not a good distribution for estimating very low annual exceedance probabilities. The Escalante River analysis showed that adding paleoflood information might increase uncertainty for very low annual exceedance probabilities, compared to analysis with the systematic period of record information only, when the paleoflood peaks are of much larger magnitudes than the systematic record.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2001

Elevated carbon dioxide flux at the Dixie Valley geothermal field, Nevada; relations between surface phenomena and the geothermal reservoir

In the later part of the 1990s, a large die-off of desert shrubs occurred over an approximately 1 km2 area in the northwestern section of the Dixie Valley (DV) geothermal field. This paper reports results from accumulation-chamber measurements of soil CO2 flux from locations in the dead zone and stable isotope and chemical data on fluids from fumaroles, shallow wells, and geothermal production wells within and adjacent to the dead zone. A cumulative probability plot shows three types of flux sites within the dead zone: Locations with a normal background CO2 flux (7 g m-2 day-1); moderate flux sites displaying "excess" geothermal flux; and high flux sites near young vents and fumaroles. A maximum CO2 flux of 570 g m-2 day-1 was measured at a location adjacent to a fumarole. Using statistical methods appropriate for lognormally distributed populations of data, estimates of the geothermal flux range from 7.5 t day-1 from a 0.14-km2 site near the Stillwater Fault to 0.1 t day-1 from a 0.01 -km2 location of steaming ground on the valley floor. Anomalous CO2 flux is positively correlated with shallow temperature anomalies. The anomalous flux associated with the entire dead zone area declined about 35% over a 6-month period. The decline was most notable at a hot zone located on an alluvial fan and in the SG located on the valley floor. Gas geochemistry indicates that older established fumaroles along the Stillwater Fault and a 2-year-old vent in the lower section of the dead zone discharge a mixture of geothermal gases and air or gases from air-saturated meteoric water (ASMW). Stable isotope data indicate that steam from the smaller fumaroles is produced by ??? 100??C boiling of these mixed fluids and reservoir fluid. Steam from the Senator fumarole (SF) and from shallow wells penetrating the dead zone are probably derived by 140??C to 160??C boiling of reservoir fluid. Carbon-13 isotope data suggest that the reservoir CO2 is produced mainly by thermal decarbonation of hydrothermal calcite in veins that cut reservoir rocks. Formation of the dead zone is linked to the reservoir pressure decline caused by continuous reservoir drawdown from 1986 to present. These reservoir changes have restricted flow and induced boiling in a subsurface hydrothermal outflow plume extending from the Stillwater Fault southeast toward the DV floor. We estimate that maximum CO2 flux in the upflow zone along the Stillwater Fault in 1998 was roughly seven to eight times greater than the pre-production flux in 1986. The eventual decline in CO2 flux reflects the drying out of the outflow plume. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Chemical Geology↗

USGS2012

Geogenic sources of benzene in aquifers used for public supply, California

Statistical evaluation of two large statewide data sets from the California State Water Board's Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Program (1973 wells) and the California Department of Public Health (12417 wells) reveals that benzene occurs infrequently (1.7%) and at generally low concentrations (median detected concentration of 0.024 μg/L) in groundwater used for public supply in California. When detected, benzene is more often related to geogenic (45% of detections) than anthropogenic sources (27% of detections). Similar relations are evident for the sum of 17 hydrocarbons analyzed. Benzene occurs most frequently and at the highest concentrations in old, brackish, and reducing groundwater; the detection frequency was 13.0% in groundwater with tritium <1 pCi/L, specific conductance >1600 μS/cm, and anoxic conditions. This groundwater is typically deep (>180 m). Benzene occurs somewhat less frequently in recent, shallow, and reducing groundwater; the detection frequency was 2.6% in groundwater with tritium ≥1 pCi/L, depth <30 m, and anoxic conditions. Evidence for geogenic sources of benzene include: higher concentrations and detection frequencies with increasing well depth, groundwater age, and proximity to oil and gas fields; and higher salinity and lower chloride/iodide ratios in old groundwater with detections of benzene, consistent with interactions with oil-field brines.

California↗

USGS2003

Quantifying migratory delay: A new application of survival analysis

Statistical techniques commonly used in fish passage research fail to adequately quantify delays incurred at obstacles, or the effects of modifications to those obstacles on passage rates. Analyses of telemetry data describing these effects can be misleading, particularly when passage route of some individuals is not established (e.g., because of mortality, tag failure, passage through unmonitored or alternate routes, etc.). Here, we demonstrate how event-time analysis, better known as survival analysis, can be used to quantify passage rates for any study that allows tracking of individuals through time, even when some individuals fail to pass the route or obstacle in question. We review two of the primary methods of event-time analysis (parametric and Cox's proportional hazards regression analyses) and use them in combination with logistic regression to provide unbiased estimates of delay incurred at a hydroelectric facility, as well as insights on factors affecting both rates of passage and route selection. Passage rate increased with increased depth of a surface bypass sluice gate and, among fish that passed through the turbines, with turbine flow. The data further indicate that risk of turbine passage increased with both delay and turbine flow.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS1969

The determination of the acoustic parameters of volcanic rocks from compressional velocity measurements

A statistical analysis was made of the relationship of various acoustic parameters of volcanic rocks to compressional wave velocities for data obtained in a volcanic region in Nevada. Some additional samples, chiefly granitic rocks, were also included in the study to extend the range of parameters and the variety of siliceous rock types sampled. Laboratory acoustic measurements obtained on 62 dry core samples were grouped with similar measurements obtained from geophysical logging devices at several depth intervals in a hole from which 15 of the core samples had been obtained. The effects of lithostatic and hydrostatic load on changing the rock acoustic parameters measured in the hole were noticeable when compared with the laboratory measurements on the same core. The results of the analyses determined by grouping all of the data, however, indicate that dynamic Young's, shear and bulk modulus, shear velocity, shear and compressional characteristic impedance, as well as amplitude and energy reflection coefficients may be reliably estimated on the basis of the compressional wave velocities of the rocks investigated. Less precise estimates can be made of density based on the rock compressional velocity. The possible extension of these relationships to include many siliceous rocks is suggested.

International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining↗

USGS2021

The response of streams in the Adirondack region of New York to projected changes in sulfur and nitrogen deposition under changing climate

Modeling studies project that in the future surface waters in the northeast US will continue to recover from acidification over decades following reductions in atmospheric sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides emissions. However, these studies generally assume stationary climatic conditions over the simulation period and ignore the linkages between soil and surface water recovery from acid deposition and changing climate, despite fundamental impacts to watershed processes and comparable time scales for both phenomena. In this study, the integrated biogeochemical model PnET-BGC was applied to two montane forest watersheds in the Adirondack region of New York, USA to evaluate the recovery of surface waters from historical acidification in response to possible future changes in climate and atmospheric sulfur and nitrogen deposition. Statistically downscaled climate scenarios on average project warmer temperatures and greater precipitation for the Adirondack by the end of the century. Model simulations suggest under constant climate, acid-sensitive Buck Creek would gain 12.8 μeq L −1 of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) by 2100 from large reductions in deposition, whereas acid insensitive Archer Creek is projected to gain 7.9 μeq L −1 of ANC. However, climate change could limit those improvements in acid-base status. Under climate change, a negative offset relative to the ANC increases with no climate change are projected for both streams by 2100. In acid-insensitive Archer Creek the negative offset (−8.5 μeq L −1 ) was large enough that ANC is projected to decrease by −0.6 μeq L −1 , whereas in acid-sensitive Buck Creek, the negative offset (−0.4 μeq L −1 ) resulted in a slight decline of the projected future ANC increase to 12.4 μeq L −1 . Calculated target loads for 2150 for both sites decreased when future climate change was considered in model simulations, which suggests further reductions in acid deposition may be necessary to restore ecosystem structure and function under a changing climate.

New York↗

USGS2017

3D Pressure‐limited approach to model and estimate CO2 injection and storage capacity: saline Mount Simon Formation

To estimate the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection and storage capacity of saline formations, we used Tough2‐ECO2N simulation software to develop a pressure‐limited (dynamic) simulation approach based on applying three‐dimensional (3D) numerical simulation only on the effective injection area (A eff ) surrounding each injection well. A statistical analysis was performed to account for existing reservoir heterogeneity and property variations. The accuracy of the model simulation results (such as CO 2 plume extension and induced injection well bottomhole pressure values) were tested and verified against the data obtained from the Decatur CO 2 injection study of the Mount Simon Formation. Next, we designed a full‐field CO 2 injection pattern by populating the core sections of this formation with a series of the simulated effective injection areas such that each simulated A eff acts as a closed domain. The results of this analysis were used to estimate the optimum number and location of the required CO 2 injection wells, along with the dynamic annual CO 2 injection rate and overall pressure‐limited storage capacity of this formation. This approach enabled us to model separate CO 2 injection activities independently at different sections of the same saline formation and to model and simulate faults and natural barriers by considering them as boundary conditions for each simulated A eff without constructing full‐field models. Using this approach, a series of modeled A eff with relevant properties may be redesigned to model any other saline formation with a similar structure.

Mount Simon Formation↗