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Ecological context for the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative

The North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NPLCC) encompasses the temperate coastal rainforest and extends from the coastal mountains to the near-shore from the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska to Bodega Bay, California. The area spans multiple agency, state, and international boundaries over more than 22 degrees of latitude, including a wide range of type and intensity of human land-use activities. Development of NPLCC goals and administrative structures will be facilitated by a shared ecological context for discussing this expansive, diverse, and complex landscape. In support of activities to organize the NPLCC, we provided conceptual models to describe the ecological structure of the NPLCC. Recognizing that the boundaries of LCCs were primarily based on Level 2 of the hierarchical ecoregional classification of Omernik (Comission for Environmental Cooperation 1997), we used nested Level 3 ecoregions to define subregions within the NPLCC. Rather than develop conceptual models for all nine constituent subregions, we opted to consider five groups: Puget-Georgia Basin Lowland and Willamette Valley, Alaska-British Columbia Coast, Alaska-British Columbia Mountains, Klamath-Olympic-Cascade Mountains, and Washington-Oregon-Northern California Coast. At the conclusion of the project, we felt that the close relationship between mountain and coastal areas support combining them to create three major subregions: Alaska-British Columbia coast and mountains, Washington-Oregon-Northern California coast and mountains, and the lowlands of the Georgia Basin and Willamette Valley. The following figures present the Omernik Level 3 ecoregions comprising the NPLCC; how the ecoregions were grouped to create conceptual models; and conceptual models for each group. The five models each consist of a table listing resources, stressors, potential climate change impacts; a landcover map; and a cartoon to summarize the table and evoke the landscape. A final figure summarizes resources, stressors, and climate change impacts that are common across the NPLCC.

Alaska;British Columbia;California;Oregon;Washingt↗

Identifying resource manager information needs for the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of 22 public-private partnerships, defined by ecoregion, that share and provide science to ensure the sustainability of land, water, wildlife and cultural resources in North America. LLCs were established by the U.S. Department of Interior (DOI) in recognition that response to climate change must be coordinated on a landscape-level basis because important resources, ecosystem processes and resource management challenges extend beyond national wildlife refuges, Bureau of Land Management lands, national parks, and even international boundaries. Therefore, DOI agencies must work with other Federal, State, Tribal (U.S. indigenous peoples), First Nation (Canadian indigenous peoples), and local governments, as well as private landowners, to develop landscape-level strategies for understanding and responding to climate change.

Alaska;British Columbia;California;Oregon;Washingt↗

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2015 annual report

This is the eighth annual report highlighting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science and decision-support activities conducted for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI). The activities address specific management needs identified by WLCI partner agencies. In 2015, USGS scientists continued 24 WLCI projects in 5 categories: (1) acquiring and analyzing resource-condition data to form a foundation for understanding and monitoring landscape conditions and projecting changes; (2) using new technologies to improve the scope and accuracy of landscape-scale monitoring and assessments, and applying them to monitor indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms that drive wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them to use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. Of the 24 projects, 21 were ongoing, including those that entered new phases or more in-depth lines of inquiry, 2 were new, and 1 was completed. A highlight of 2015 was the WLCI science conference sponsored by the USGS, Bureau of Land Management, and National Park Service in coordination with the Wyoming chapter of The Wildlife Society. Of 260 participants, 41 were USGS professionals representing 13 USGS science centers, field offices, and Cooperative Wildlife Research Units. Major themes of USGS presentations included using new technologies for developing more efficient research protocols for modeling and monitoring natural resources, researching effects of energy development and other land uses on wildlife species and habitats of concern, and modeling species distributions, population trends, habitat use, and effects of land-use changes. There was also a special session on the effectiveness of Wyoming’s Sage-Grouse Executive Order. Combined, USGS presentations provided WLCI partners with a wealth of information and conservation tools. The project completed in 2015 yielded an index of important agricultural lands in the WLCI region. The index improves upon existing measures of agricultural productivity and provides planners and managers with additional values to consider when making decisions about land use and conservation actions. The two new projects include an analysis of satellite imagery to quantify sagebrush productivity and mortality, and an evaluation of how groundwater and small streams interact in the upper Green River Basin. Initiated in response to concern among WLCI partners that large areas of sagebrush appear to have died recently, the sagebrush study objectives are to assess effects of these mortality events on overall sagebrush ecosystem productivity, evaluate the feasibility of using satellite imagery to detect patterns in sagebrush mortality over time, and identify factors driving these mortality events. The groundwater-streamflow interaction study is being conducted by hydrologists and fish ecologists to better understand how groundwater-streamflow interactions are affected by energy-resource development and how native fish communities are affected by these factors. Expected outcomes of both new projects will provide WLCI partners with additional information and decision-support tools. Highlights of ongoing science foundation activities included simulations of nine alternative build-out scenarios for oil and gas development and an associated online fact sheet that explains how the simulations were conducted, with an applied example for the Atlantic Rim. Also completed in 2015 was an update of the USGS online inventory of mineral resources data, and publication of a USGS uranium resource survey for the WLCI region. Combined, the outcomes of this work provide decisionmakers and managers with important baseline information for existing and (or) future planning and monitoring efforts. Terrestrial monitoring activities in 2015 emphasized the use of satellite data in combination with other technologies and field data to monitor, assess, and (or) forecast distribution patterns and (or) trends in sagebrush ecosystems, seasonal and migration stopover habitats used by mule deer and elk, and semi-arid aspen woodlands. Several professional papers detailing new monitoring models and results have been published. Combined, this and related work will help managers understand distribution patterns and trends among priority habitats, identify areas in need of restoration or conservation, and monitor the effectiveness of habitat-management actions. Aquatic monitoring activities entailed not only the new groundwater-streamflow interaction study already mentioned, but also continued monitoring with streamgages paired with nearby wells in the Green River Basin to assess groundwater effects on streamflow and surface water temperatures. A map that portrays groundwater levels and general direction of flow in the Green River Basin was published as well . Overall, outcomes of USGS hydrological research and monitoring will inform WLCI partners about water resources in the WLCI region and help to explain fish-community responses to energy-resource development. In 2015, USGS terrestrial wildlife ecologists continued to make crucial strides towards better understanding wildlife species responses to energy-resource development and other land-use changes. This body of research includes six taxa that require or heavily depend on sagebrush habitats: sage-grouse, pygmy rabbits, 3 songbird species, and mule deer. Native fish communities are also being evaluated. Approaches include modeling and mapping wildlife species distributions, abundances, and trends; using satellite and other technologies to track wildlife seasonal movements; conducting successive phases of research that build on the knowledge gained through prior phases to reveal the specific factors or thresholds that drive population- or individual-level responses to changes; and conducting population viability analyses. Additionally, wildlife habitat association models for pygmy rabbit and sage-grouse were combined with the oil and gas build-out scenarios to project species responses to alternative energy development scenarios. Outcomes of the wildlife response research are helping decisionmakers and managers identify specific factors that contribute to species population trends, the potential for spatial overlap between important wildlife habitats and proposed energy-resource development, locations of priority habitats for restoration and conservation, and more. Data and WLCI Web site management highlights of 2015 included not only ongoing software upgrades, but also an update of the datasets displayed in two of the online products developed for the WLCI effort: (1) a map of 15,532 oil and natural gas well pad scars and other features associated with oil and gas extraction, and (2) a map of oil and gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production, both for southwestern Wyoming. In addition, a map viewer was developed for a previously published map of coal and wind production in relation to sage-grouse distribution and core management areas in southwestern Wyoming. Combined, these maps place valuable decision-support tools in the hands of WLCI partners. The USGS coordination efforts on behalf of the WLCI in 2015 included significant work on planning and executing the WLCI science conference. They also included ongoing efforts to support Local Project Development Teams and the WLCI Coordination Team (CT) with developing conservation priorities and strategies, identifying priority areas for future conservation actions, supporting the evaluation and ranking of conservation projects, and evaluating the ways in which proposed habitat projects relate to WLCI priorities. In 2015, the USGS also assisted the WLCI CT with updating the WLCI Conservation Action Plan.

Wyoming↗

A conservation paradox in the Great Basin—Altering sagebrush landscapes with fuel breaks to reduce habitat loss from wildfire

Interactions between fire and nonnative, annual plant species (that is, “the grass/fire cycle”) represent one of the greatest threats to sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems and associated wildlife, including the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). In 2015, U.S. Department of the Interior called for a “science-based strategy to reduce the threat of large-scale rangeland fire to habitat for the greater sage-grouse and the sagebrush-steppe ecosystem.” An associated guidance document, the “Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan,” identified fuel breaks as high priority areas for scientific research. Fuel breaks are intended to reduce fire size and frequency, and potentially they can compartmentalize wildfire spatial distribution in a landscape. Fuel breaks are designed to reduce flame length, fireline intensity, and rates of fire spread in order to enhance firefighter access, improve response times, and provide safe and strategic anchor points for wildland fire-fighting activities. To accomplish these objectives, fuel breaks disrupt fuel continuity, reduce fuel accumulation, and (or) increase plants with high moisture content through the removal or modification of vegetation in strategically placed strips or blocks of land. Fuel breaks are being newly constructed, enhanced, or proposed across large areas of the Great Basin to reduce wildfire risk and to protect remaining sagebrush ecosystems (including greater sage-grouse habitat). These projects are likely to result in thousands of linear miles of fuel breaks that will have direct ecological effects across hundreds of thousands of acres through habitat loss and conversion. These projects may also affect millions of acres indirectly because of edge effects and habitat fragmentation created by networks of fuel breaks. Hence, land managers are often faced with a potentially paradoxical situation: the need to substantially alter sagebrush habitats with fuel breaks to ultimately reduce a greater threat of their destruction from wildfire. However, there is relatively little published science that directly addresses the ability of fuel breaks to influence fire behavior in dryland landscapes or that addresses the potential ecological effects of the construction and maintenance of fuel breaks on sagebrush ecosystems and associated wildlife species. This report is intended to provide an initial assessment of both the potential effectiveness of fuel breaks and their ecological costs and benefits. To provide this assessment, we examined prior studies on fuel breaks and other scientific evidence to address three crucial questions: (1) How effective are fuel breaks in reducing or slowing the spread of wildfire in arid and semi-arid shrubland ecosystems? (2) How do fuel breaks affect sagebrush plant communities? (3) What are the effects of fuel breaks on the greater sage-grouse, other sagebrush obligates, and sagebrush-associated wildlife species? We also provide an overview of recent federal policies and management directives aimed at protecting remaining sagebrush and greater sage-grouse habitat; describe the fuel conditions, fire behavior, and fire trends in the Great Basin; and suggest how scientific inquiry and management actions can improve our understanding of fuel breaks and their effects in sagebrush landscapes.

Open-File Report↗

Assessing the use of long-term lek survey data to evaluate the effect of landscape characteristics and wind facilities on sharp-tailed grouse lek dynamics in North Dakota and South Dakota

The contribution of renewable energy to meet worldwide demand continues to grow. In the United States, wind energy is one of the fastest growing renewable energy sectors. Throughout the Great Plains of the United States, wind facilities often are placed in open landscapes of high-elevation grasslands, and those same habitats support sharp-tailed grouse ( Tympanuchus phasianellus ), a resident gamebird species. To assess the feasibility of using independently derived, long-term datasets gathered in North Dakota and South Dakota to determine whether wind facilities affected lek metrics, the U.S. Geological Survey obtained six datasets and identified 37 study sites, 9 of which contained wind turbines at varying densities. The association between explanatory variables that described geographic, landscape, and climatic attributes with two primary response metrics that described lekking activity within study sites—lek density (leks per square kilometer) and mean number of males per lek—was examined. The explanatory variables included number of turbines, geographic location, elevation, land-cover attributes available from satellite-derived land-cover data, soil moisture, precipitation, and temperature. Sampling units consisted of township-sized blocks, and lek information came from roadside surveys. Low sample sizes of constructed wind facilities available at the time of analysis did not lend itself to advanced statistical techniques, such as employing a rigorous design structure or assessing accuracy on landscape, geographic, or climatic variables. Given the quality of the data, the estimates obtained for lek density and mean number of males per lek should be considered approximations; however, these estimates have value in designing future studies, such as providing estimates for power analyses to determine sufficient sample size. No strong associations were found between the included explanatory variables and response variables (when these variables were measured as described in this report for township-sized blocks). The strongest association was that lek density and mean number of males per lek increased from South Dakota to North Dakota. Owing to the highly unbalanced distribution of turbine and nonturbine study sites across the study area, the analysis with wind turbines was inconclusive. The constraints under which the analysis can be used and the limitations of the independently derived datasets in attempted applications are discussed.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

Hydrogeology and Hydrologic Landscape Regions of Nevada

In 1999, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency initiated a rule to protect ground water in areas other than source-water protection areas. These other sensitive ground water areas (OSGWAs) are aquifers that are not currently but could eventually be used as a source of drinking water. The OSGWA program specifically addresses existing wells that are used for underground injection of motor vehicle waste. If the injection well is in a ground-water protection area or an OSGWA, well owners must either close the well or apply for a permit. The Nevada Division of Environmental Protection will evaluate site-specific information and determine if the aquifer associated with a permit application is susceptible to contamination. A basic part of evaluating OSGWAs is characterizing the hydrogeology of aquifer systems including the lithology, hydrologic properties, soil permeability, and faulting, which partly control the susceptibility of ground water to contamination. Detailed studies that evaluate ground-water susceptibility are not practical in a largely unpopulated State like Nevada. However, existing and new information could be extrapolated to other areas of the State if there is an objective framework to transfer the information. The concept of hydrologic landscape regions, which identify areas with similar hydrologic characteristics, provides this framework. This report describes the hydrogeology and hydrologic landscape regions of Nevada. Consolidated rocks that form mountain ranges and unconsolidated sediments that fill the basins between the ranges are grouped into hydrogeologic units having similar lithology and assumed to have similar hydrologic properties. Consolidated rocks and unconsolidated sediments are the two major hydrogeologic units and comprise 51 and 49 percent of the State, respectively. Consolidated rocks are subdivided into 8 hydrogeologic units. In approximate order of decreasing horizontal hydraulic conductivity, consolidated-rock hydrogeologic units consist of: (1) carbonate rocks, Quaternary to Tertiary age; (2) basaltic, (3) rhyolitic, and (4) andesitic volcanic flows; (5) volcanic breccias, tuffs, and volcanic rocks older than Tertiary age; (6) intrusive and metamorphic rocks; (7) consolidated and semi-consolidated tuffaceous rocks and sediments; and (8) clastic rocks consisting of sandstone and siltstone. Unconsolidated sediments are subdivided into four hydrogeologic units on the basis of flow regime, topographic slope, and mapped stream channels. The four units are (1) alluvial slopes, (2) valley floors, (3) fluvial deposits, and (4) playas. Soil permeability was grouped into five descriptive categories ranging from very high to very low, which generally correspond to mapped geomorphic features such as playas and alluvial slopes. In general, soil permeability is low to moderate in northern, northeastern, and eastern Nevada and high to very high in western, southwestern, and southern Nevada. Within a particular basin, soil permeability decreases downslope from the bedrock contact. The type of parent rock, climate, and streamflow velocities are factors that likely cause these spatial patterns. Faults in unconsolidated sediments usually are barriers to ground-water flow. In consolidated rocks, permeability and ground-water flow is reduced in directions normal to the fault zone and increased in directions parallel to the fault zone. With time, mineral precipitation may seal fractures in consolidated rocks, reducing the permeability. However, continued movement along the fault may form new fractures, resulting in a fault alternating from a zone of preferred flow to a flow barrier during geologic time. The effect of faults on ground-water flow at a particular location is difficult to determine without a site- specific investigation. Hydrologic landscape regions were delineated by overlaying a grid of 100-foot (30-meter) cells over the State, estimating the value of five variables for each cell, an

Nevada↗

Landscape and climatic influences on actual evapotranspiration and available water using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) Model in eastern Bernalillo County, New Mexico, 2015

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bernalillo County Public Works Division, conducted a 1-year study in 2015 to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of evapotranspiration (ET) and available water within the East Mountain area in Bernalillo County, New Mexico. ET and available water vary spatiotemporally because of complex interactions among environmental factors, including vegetation characteristics, soil characteristics, topography, and climate. Precipitation data from the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) ( P ) were used in conjunction with actual ET ( ETa ) data from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model to estimate available water ( P – ETa ) at 100-meter (m) resolution in the study area. Maps, descriptive statistics, boxplots, regression analyses (continuous data), and multiple comparison tests (categorical data) were used to characterize P , ETa , and available water and their relations to topographic, soil, and vegetation datasets in the East Mountain area. Five categories of the natural land-cover type (evergreen forest, shrub, herbaceous, deciduous forest, and mixed forest) and four categories of developed land-cover type specific to residential intensity (developed open, developed low, developed medium, and developed high) were analyzed individually and in interaction with multiple elevation, tree canopy, and soil texture classes. Annual mean P in 2015 in the East Mountain area was 608 millimeters (mm), and annual mean ETa was 543 mm (89 percent of annual P in 2015), indicating that in 2015, a spatial mean of about 65 mm of water was available for runoff, soil moisture replenishment, or groundwater recharge. Monthly ETa was greatest in July and smallest in January. The intervening months did not show smooth temporal or consistent spatial changes from month to month. Months with lower ETa (January to March, October to December) also tended to have greater available water, indicating that soil moisture (water supply) and potential ET (water demand) may have been out of phase. Regression analyses showed that monthly ETa data had the highest correlation with annual ETa among the atmospheric, topographic, soil, or vegetation datasets, particularly during the early and late growing season (March, April, May, and September). In contrast, monthly P was highly variable and not as highly correlated with annual ETa . Among landscape variables, correlations with annual ETa were highest for tree canopy cover (coefficient of determination [R 2 ] = 0.46). Correlations between ETa and other landscape variables were lower (R 2 = 0.06–0.19): available soil water in the top 100 centimeters, soil bulk density of layer 1, slope, sand content of soil layer 1, soil depth, available soil water in the top 25 centimeters, leaf area index, aspect eastness, and elevation. Evergreen forest areas had the highest annual median ETa , followed by mixed forest, open residential areas, and deciduous forest. Available water typically was higher in landcover types with lower ETa : herbaceous cover, followed by deciduous forest, high-intensity developed areas, and shrub. Deciduous forest had the second highest median available water, despite having the fourth highest ETa , because deciduous forest had greater P than most other areas. Annual median ETa typically was greatest in the second highest elevation band (2,401–2,800 m above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 [NAVD 88]), and lower in the highest elevation band (2,801–3,254 m above NAVD 88), despite having greater P , likely because of decreased tree canopy cover or a shift from evergreen to deciduous trees at the highest elevations. Annual median ETa increased with tree canopy cover, regardless of landcover type. ETa correlation was higher with tree canopy than with leaf area index or normalized difference vegetation index. This result indicates that it is important to include the thermal band (from satellite multispectral data) in vegetation indices used to describe ETa , perhaps to account for the influence of energy limitation or water limitation on ET. Of all natural landcover types, finer soils had the most available water, whereas coarser soils had the least available water. Relations of soil type with P – ETa were different than with ETa , indicating ET and available water have a complex response to differences in soil type. Further modeling would be useful in determining soils’ infiltration, storage, conductivity, and plant-water availability relations to individual storms for each position in the landscape, as well as the corresponding effects of these processes on ET and available water. The best multivariate linear model for annual ETa had an R 2 value of 0.62. Monthly ETa models had R 2 values between 0.16 and 0.65. Models usually, but not always, performed best during the growing season. These results indicate that even the best multivariate linear models cannot explain a notable amount of the variability in ET. The monthly ETa models with the highest correlations (August and September) followed a July having almost twice the mean precipitation for July (1981–2010), which indicates that a soil-moisture variable is needed to more accurately model monthly ETa . Further study is needed to better characterize this system, the variables that affect ET and available water, and the partitioning of available water into runoff, soil moisture storage, and groundwater recharge.

New Mexico↗

Landscape evolution in eastern Chuckwalla Valley, Riverside County, California

This study investigates sedimentary and geomorphic processes in eastern Chuckwalla Valley, Riverside County, California, a region of arid, basin-and-range terrain where extensive solar-energy development is planned. The objectives of this study were to (1) measure local weather parameters and use them to model aeolian sediment-transport potential; (2) identify surface sedimentary characteristics in representative localities; and (3) evaluate long-term landscape evolution rates and processes by analyzing stratigraphy in combination with luminescence geochronology. The new stratigraphic and geochronologic data presented in this report demonstrate the varying local significance of aeolian, alluvial fan, lacustrine (playa), and possibly Colorado River influence over a range of time scales. The dominant sand-transport direction in eastern Chuckwalla Valley is toward the northeast, consistent with the recognized regional west-to-east wind direction. However, occasional strong wind events from the north can transport large quantities of sand southward and temporarily reshape local geomorphic features. Influence of a northwest wind direction is also locally dominant around mountain ranges and controls the modern morphology of the Palen dune field. Modeled sand fluxes are on the order of 10 5 kilograms per meter width per year at the site of weather monitoring, 5 kilometers northwest of the Mule Mountains. Aeolian dunes are locally well developed and actively migrating. Their location and activity are determined largely by sediment supply from playa surfaces and ephemeral stream channels, which also control the dunes’ spatial extent and migration potential; stream channels act as both source and sink for aeolian sediment in this environment. Excavations at five sites along a northwest-to-southeast transect reveal that playa deposits formed around 266–226 thousand years ago south of the McCoy Mountains and immediately north of the present location of Interstate 10. The playa material is overlain by late Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial fan deposits. To the southeast (south of Interstate 10, but north of the Mule Mountains), we identified rapid accumulation of alluvial sediment around the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (23–20 thousand years ago), unconformably overlain by a locally varying assemblage of recent aeolian material or Holocene alluvial fan sediment. We have used stratigraphic characteristics and luminescence ages to calculate accumulation rates for sites in eastern Chuckwalla Valley, and thereby to identify spatial variation in landscape stability over decadal and longer time scales. If future solar-energy development plans are to include natural sand-transport corridors, plans would entail retaining the ability for sand to be transported eastward from the ephemeral stream channels and playas that supply sediment to the dunes, sand sheets, and sand ramps of Chuckwalla Valley, and also to allow for southward transport during episodic strong weather events several times per year. The aeolian sediment-transport corridors are dynamic spatially and temporally, reorganizing on the basis of seasonal changes to wind drift potential. Future landscape stability also will be determined by climate-driven changes to vegetation and thereby to aeolian sediment availability. In a warmer, drier climate, aeolian sediment activity is expected to increase, owing to a decrease in stabilizing vegetation cover and more extreme rain that supplies sediment to ephemeral stream channels and playas from which it is remobilized by wind.

California↗

The thermal landscape of the Willamette River—Patterns and controls on stream temperature and implications for flow management and cold-water salmonids

Water temperature is a primary control on the health, diversity, abundance, and distribution of aquatic species, but thermal degradation resulting from anthropogenic influences on rivers is a challenge to threatened species worldwide. In the Willamette River Basin, northwestern Oregon, spring-run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and winter-run steelhead ( O. mykiss ) are formerly abundant cold-water-adapted species that are now protected under the Endangered Species Act. Among the challenges to the health of cold-water salmonids in the Willamette River Basin, disruptions in the seasonal patterns of stream temperature imposed by 13 large, multipurpose dams on tributaries to the Willamette River, as well as temperatures routinely in excess of regulatory limits in the Willamette River Basin, are contributing factors. To better understand controls on stream temperature, the sensitivity of stream temperature to flow augmentation as a management tool for suppressing high temperatures, and the implications for threatened salmonids, this study used a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) to investigate spatial and temporal patterns of stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin. This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year), and a series of flow-augmentation scenarios. Model results show that the Willamette River upstream from Willamette Falls is divisible into four characteristic “thermal reaches” with similar thermal patterns, depending on tributary input, warming rate, and the timing of thermal response. In general, the Willamette River warms downstream during spring and summer, but patterns are complex, influenced by tributary inflows, and seasonally variable. Except in cool wet years (as illustrated by 2011), modeling suggests that adversely warm conditions for spring-run Chinook salmon are extensive from June or July through August. The thermal influence of flow augmentation from dam storage on four tributaries with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams varies spatially along the Willamette River, seasonally, and in magnitude, depending on a range of factors like distance from the Willamette River, the temperature of dam outflow, and the thermal template of tributary reaches controlling stream temperature adjustment to environmental heat fluxes. Modeling suggests that targeted flow management (via augmentation from dam storage) can reduce the extent and duration of thermally stressful conditions for Chinook salmon for short periods, but modeling suggests that flow augmentation is limited in its ability to fundamentally alter the “thermal landscape” (the entire range of temperature variation in a river system over space and time) of the Willamette River. While this research provides general insights into the thermal landscape of the Willamette River and its sensitivity to flow management, additional investigation into the thermal landscape of tributaries downstream from U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams, as well as the thermal management of reservoirs, storage availability, and dam outflows, would be necessary to target specific management actions for supporting specified rearing or migration conditions for spring-run Chinook salmon and other cold-water-adapted species in the Willamette River Basin.

Oregon↗

Protocol for Landsat-Based Monitoring of Landscape Dynamics at North Coast and Cascades Network Parks

Background and Objectives As part of the National Park Service's larger goal of developing long-term monitoring programs in response to the Natural Resource Challenge of 2000, the parks of the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN) have determined that monitoring of landscape dynamics is necessary to track ecosystem health (Weber and others, 2005). Landscape dynamics refer to a broad suite of ecological, geomorphological, and anthropogenic processes occurring across broad spatial scales. The NCCN has sought protocols that would leverage remote-sensing technologies to aid in monitoring landscape dynamics.

Techniques and Methods↗

Drivers and consequences of alternative landscape futures on wildlife distributions in New England, United States

In an era of rapid climate and land transformation, it is increasingly important to understand how future changes impact natural systems. Scenario studies can offer the structure and perspective needed to understand the impacts of change and help inform management and conservation decisions. We implemented a scenario-based approach to assess how two high impact drivers of landscape change influence the distributions of managed wildlife species (n = 10) in the New England region of the northeastern United States. We used expert derived species distribution models (SDMs) and scenarios developed by the New England Landscape Futures Project (NELFP) to estimate how species distributions change under various trajectories (n = 5) of landscape change. The NELFP scenarios were built around two primary drivers – Socio-Economic Connectedness (SEC) and Natural Resource Planning and Innovation (NRPI) – and provide plausible alternatives for how the New England region may change over fifty years (2010 to 2060). Our models generally resulted in species occurrence and richness declines by 2060. The majority of species (7 of 10) experienced declines in regional occurrence for all NELFP scenarios, and one species experienced a projected increase in mean regional occurrence for all scenarios. Our results indicate that the NRPI and SEC drivers strongly influenced projected distribution changes compared to baseline projections. NRPI had a greater impact on distribution change for five species (coyote, moose, striped skunk, white-tailed deer, and wild turkey), while SEC had a greater impact on four species (American black bear, bobcat, raccoon, and red fox); one species (gray fox) was equally influenced by both NRPI and SEC. These results emphasize the importance of integrating both natural resource planning and socio-economic factors when addressing issues of distribution change and offer insights that can inform proactive management and conservation planning.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

Linear and landscape disturbances alter Mojave desert tortoise movement behavior

Introduction: Animal movements are influenced by landscape features; disturbances to the landscape can alter movements, dispersal, and ultimately connectivity among populations. Faster or longer movements adjacent to a localized disturbance or within disturbed areas could indicate reduced habitat quality whereas slower or shorter movements and reduced movements may indicate greater availability of resources. The Mojave desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) is a threatened species that is challenged by anthropogenic disturbances. Methods: We studied tortoise movements using Global Positioning System (GPS) loggers at multiple sites in the Mojave Desert of Nevada and California. Tortoises at our sites encountered localized, linear human infrastructure, including paved roads, dirt roads, and fences, as well as landscape-scale disturbances [wildfire, off highway vehicle use (OHV), livestock grazing area]. We fit two-state (moving and encamped) Hidden Markov models to GPS logger data to infer how tortoise movement behavior relates to anthropogenic and natural features. Results: We found that temporal covariates, individual-level random effects (intercepts), and sex best explained state transition probability in all sites. We compared relationships between tortoise movement and linear disturbances, which varied depending on site and context. Tortoises made longer movements within the OHV recreation area, near most dirt roads, and near a low-traffic paved road, indicating that tortoises avoid these habitat disturbances. Conversely, tortoises made shorter movements in areas of higher slope and near highways, suggesting that these features may restrict movement or provide resources that result in prolonged use (e.g., forage or drinking locations). Tortoises that encountered fences around utility-scale solar installations were more active and made longer movements near fences, indicative of pacing behavior. Discussion: These results provide insight into how different disturbances alter tortoise movement behavior and modify tortoise habitat use, providing information that can be used to manage tortoise habitat.

California, Nevada↗

Shaping land use change and ecosystem restoration in a water-stressed agricultural landscape to achieve multiple benefits

Irrigated agriculture has grown rapidly over the last 50 years, helping food production keep pace with population growth, but also leading to significant habitat and biodiversity loss globally. Now, in some regions, land degradation and overtaxed water resources mean historical production levels may need to be reduced. We demonstrate how analytically supported planning for habitat restoration in stressed agricultural landscapes can recover biodiversity and create co-benefits during transitions to sustainability. We apply our approach in California's San Joaquin Valley where groundwater regulations are driving significant land use change. We link agricultural-economic and land use change models to generate plausible landscapes with different cropping patterns, including temporary fallowing and permanent retirement. We find that a large fraction of the reduced cultivation is met through temporary fallowing, but still estimate over 86,000 hectares of permanent retirement. We then apply systematic conservation planning to identify optimized restoration solutions that secure at least 10,000 hectares of high quality habitat for each of five representative endangered species, accounting for spatially varying opportunity costs specific to each plausible future landscape. The analyses identified consolidated areas common to all land use scenarios where restoration could be targeted to enhance habitat by utilizing land likely to be retired anyway, and by shifting some retirement from regions with low habitat value to regions with high habitat value. We also show potential co-benefits of retirement (derived from avoided nitrogen loadings and soil carbon sequestration), though these require careful consideration of additionality. Our approach provides a generalizable means to inform multi-benefit adaptation planning in response to agricultural stressors.

California↗

Fine-resolution repeat topographic surveying of dryland landscapes using UAS-based structure-from-motion photogrammetry: Assessing accuracy and precision against traditional ground-based erosion measurements

Structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry from unmanned aerial system (UAS) imagery is an emerging tool for repeat topographic surveying of dryland erosion. These methods are particularly appealing due to the ability to cover large landscapes compared to field methods and at reduced costs and finer spatial resolution compared to airborne laser scanning. Accuracy and precision of high-resolution digital terrain models (DTMs) derived from UAS imagery have been explored in many studies, typically by comparing image coordinates to surveyed check points or LiDAR datasets. In addition to traditional check points, this study compared 5 cm resolution DTMs derived from fixed-wing UAS imagery with a traditional ground-based method of measuring soil surface change called erosion bridges. We assessed accuracy by comparing the elevation values between DTMs and erosion bridges along thirty topographic transects each 6.1 m long. Comparisons occurred at two points in time (June 2014, February 2015) which enabled us to assess vertical accuracy with 3314 data points and vertical precision (i.e., repeatability) with 1657 data points. We found strong vertical agreement (accuracy) between the methods (RMSE 2.9 and 3.2 cm in June 2014 and February 2015, respectively) and high vertical precision for the DTMs (RMSE 2.8 cm). Our results from comparing SfM-generated DTMs to check points, and strong agreement with erosion bridge measurements suggests repeat UAS imagery and SfM processing could replace erosion bridges for a more synoptic landscape assessment of shifting soil surfaces for some studies. However, while collecting the UAS imagery and generating the SfM DTMs for this study was faster than collecting erosion bridge measurements, technical challenges related to the need for ground control networks and image processing requirements must be addressed before this technique could be applied effectively to large landscapes.

Remote Sensing↗

A hydrologic landscapes perspective on groundwater connectivity of depressional wetlands

Research into processes governing the hydrologic connectivity of depressional wetlands has advanced rapidly in recent years. Nevertheless, a need persists for broadly applicable, non-site-specific guidance to facilitate further research. Here, we explicitly use the hydrologic landscapes theoretical framework to develop broadly applicable conceptual knowledge of depressional-wetland hydrologic connectivity. We used a numerical model to simulate the groundwater flow through five generic hydrologic landscapes. Next, we inserted depressional wetlands into the generic landscapes and repeated the modeling exercise. The results strongly characterize groundwater connectivity from uplands to lowlands as being predominantly indirect. Groundwater flowed from uplands and most of it was discharged to the surface at a concave-upward break in slope, possibly continuing as surface water to lowlands. Additionally, we found that groundwater connectivity of the depressional wetlands was primarily determined by the slope of the adjacent water table. However, we identified certain arrangements of landforms that caused the water table to fall sharply and not follow the surface contour. Finally, we synthesize our findings and provide guidance to practitioners and resource managers regarding the management significance of indirect groundwater discharge and the effect of depressional wetland groundwater connectivity on pond permanence and connectivity.

Water↗

Integrating landscape simulation models with economic and decision tools for invasive species control

In managing invasive species, land managers and policy makers need information to help allocate scarce resources as efficiently and effectively as possible. Decisions regarding treatment methods, locations, effort, and timing can be informed by the integration of landscape simulation models with economic tools. State and transition simulation models align with conceptual models of ecosystem change often used by practitioners and have been used to characterize the potential consequences of invasions. Outputs of these simulations are typically summarized to describe landscape changes (e.g., infested area), which may provide sufficient information for mangers to make informed decisions. However, it is sometimes helpful or necessary to go a step further to consider the social and economic values associated with treating (or not treating) invasions. Here, we describe when and how to integrate state and transition simulation models with economic and decision tools to aid in the control of emerging and established populations of invasive species. The paper provides an overview of three types of questions that can be addressed: 1) how big is the problem? 2) which management strategy is most appropriate? and 3) what are key sources of uncertainty? For each question, we describe aspects that can be addressed by landscape simulation models alone, and outstanding questions that can be evaluated by integrating economic and decision tools. Through a series of example applications from the literature, we reinforce how the integration of these tools, and the interdisciplinary perspective such an integration requires, can increase relevance and utility of modeling efforts for resource managers and decision makers.

Management of Biological Invasions↗

Benefits and limitations of using decision analytic tools to assess uncertainty and prioritize Landscape Conservation Cooperative information needs

The Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of partnerships throughout North America that are tasked with integrating science and management to support more effective delivery of conservation at a landscape scale. In order to achieve this integration, some LCCs have adopted the approach of providing their partners with better scientific information in an effort to facilitate more effective and coordinated conservation decisions. Taking this approach has led many LCCs to begin funding research to provide the information for improved decision making. To ensure that funding goes to research projects with the highest likelihood of leading to more integrated broad scale conservation, some LCCs have also developed approaches for prioritizing which information needs will be of most benefit to their partnerships. We describe two case studies in which decision analytic tools were used to quantitatively assess the relative importance of information for decisions made by partners in the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC. The results of the case studies point toward a few valuable lessons in terms of using these tools with LCCs. Decision analytic tools tend to help shift focus away from research oriented discussions and toward discussions about how information is used in making better decisions. However, many technical experts do not have enough knowledge about decision making contexts to fully inform the latter type of discussion. When assessed in the right decision context, however, decision analyses can point out where uncertainties actually affect optimal decisions and where they do not. This helps technical experts understand that not all research is valuable in improving decision making. But perhaps most importantly, our results suggest that decision analytic tools may be more useful for LCCs as way of developing integrated objectives for coordinating partner decisions across the landscape, rather than simply ranking research priorities.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

Impacts of convective storms on runoff, erosion, and carbon export in a continuous permafrost landscape

Permafrost holds more than twice the amount of carbon currently in the atmosphere, but this large carbon reservoir is vulnerable to thaw and erosion under a rapidly changing Arctic climate. Convective storms are becoming increasingly common during Arctic summers and can amplify runoff and erosion. These extreme events, in concert with active layer deepening, may accelerate carbon loss from the Arctic landscape. However, we lack measurements of carbon fluxes during these events. Rivers are sensitive to physical, chemical, and hydrological perturbations, and thus are excellent systems for studying landscape responses to thunderstorms. We present observations from the Canning River, Alaska, which drains the northern Brooks Range and flows across a continuous permafrost landscape to the Beaufort Sea. During summer 2022 and 2023 field campaigns, we opportunistically monitored river discharge, sediment, and organic carbon fluxes during several thunderstorms. During one notable storm, river discharge nearly doubled from ~130 m3/s to ~240 m3/s, suspended sediment flux increased 70-fold, and the particulate organic carbon (POC) flux increased 90-fold relative to non-storm conditions. Taken together, the river exported ~16 metric tons of POC over one hour of this sustained event, not including the additional flux of woody debris. Furthermore, the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) flux nearly doubled. Although these thunderstorm-driven fluxes are short-lived (hours to days), they play an outsized role in exporting organic carbon from Arctic rivers. Understanding how these extreme events impact river water, sediment, and carbon dynamics will help predict how Arctic climate change will modify the global carbon cycle.

Alaska↗