USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

1,688 records · Page 27Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Is satellite-derived bathymetry vertical accuracy dependent on satellite mission and processing method?

This research focusses on three satellite-derived bathymetry methods and optical satellite instruments: (1) a stereo photogrammetry bathymetry module (SaTSeaD) developed for the NASA Ames stereo pipeline open-source software (version 3.6.0) using stereo WorldView data; (2) physics-based radiative transfer equations (PBSDB) using Landsat data; and (3) a modified composite band-ratio method for Sentinel-2 (SatBathy) with an initial simplified calibration, followed by a more rigorous linear regression against in situ bathymetry data. All methods were tested in three different areas with different geological and environmental conditions, Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico; Key West, Florida; and Cocos Lagoon and Achang Flat Reef Preserve, Guam. It is demonstrated that all satellite derived bathymetry (SDB) methods have increased accuracy when the results are aligned with higher-accuracy ICESat-2 ATL24 track bathymetry data using the iterative closest point (ICP). SDB vertical accuracy depends more on location characteristics than the method or optical satellite instrument used. All error metrics considered (mean absolute error, median absolute deviation, and root mean square error) can be less than 5% of the maximum bathymetry depth penetration for at least one method, although not necessarily for the same method for all sites. The SDB error distribution tends to be bimodal irrespective of method, satellite instrument, alignment, site, or maximum bathymetry depth, leading to the potential ineffectiveness of traditional error metrics, such as the root mean square error. However, our analysis demonstrates that performing detrending where possible can achieve an error distribution as close to normality as possible for which error metrics are more diagnostic.

Florida↗
USGS2025

Refining the earthquake history of south-central Alaska through lake records

The Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone (AASZ) is one of the world's most seismically active plate boundaries and the source of the 1964 M w 9.2 Great Alaska earthquake–the second largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in the world. Understanding the nature and frequency of such earthquakes is necessary for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment, but instrumental and historical records that span less than 150 years are too short to allow a statistically reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence times. This calls for studies of evidence of past earthquakes, extending the earthquake catalog further back in time. Subduction-zone paleoseismology in south-central Alaska is predominantly based on coastal evidence of land-level changes and tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes and preserved in the geological record. A complementary approach is lacustrine paleoseismology, which is still a relatively young discipline in Alaska. However, globally, lake basins are well-established high-resolution and continuous recorders of paleoseismic activity along subduction zones, relying on the identification of underwater landslide deposits and turbidites generated by seismic shaking. As a result, lake basins not only register ground shaking from megathrust earthquakes, but also from intraslab and crustal earthquakes, which are typically not accompanied by significant land-level changes. In this review paper, we combine coastal and lacustrine paleoseismology approaches to refine the south-central Alaskan earthquake history by comparing the paleoseismic records from two lakes (i.e., Eklutna Lake, located in the Chugach Mountain Range, and Skilak Lake, situated on the Kenai Peninsula) with the coastal and crustal earthquake catalog in Alaska. The resulting age ranges of all known megathrust earthquakes involving the Alaskan megathrust between the Kodiak and Prince William Sound (PWS) sections are more precise and accurate for the last 1.3 kyrs BP than the previously published age ranges from coastal records. As a result, this study supports the following key conclusions: (1) The 1964 CE earthquake was an exceptionally strong and unique event in the last 2000 years, rupturing the PWS, Kenai, Barren Islands, and Kodiak sections simultaneously. (2) The high-resolution and seasonal markings of the varved lake records now disentangle for the first time closely timed earthquakes, which was not possible based on the coastal evidence alone. (3) No persistent megathrust rupture boundaries exist. So, the possibility of a full rupture of the entire eastern AASZ, from PWS to Semidi cannot be excluded. (4) The rupture pattern in the eastern AASZ reveals superimposed cycles of multi-asperity ruptures (1964 earthquake) and clustered complementary partial ruptures, or rupture cascades. (5) The PWS section hosts the largest asperity in the eastern AASZ. (6) The shaking record of megathrust earthquakes indicates a time-dependent (quasiperiodic) behavior for the study area, but the observation of complementary clusters means that the hazards will not drop to zero but instead may even increase for a neighboring section. (7) The time-independent behavior of intraplate earthquakes implies that the intraslab hazard did not decrease following the 2016 and 2018 earthquakes. This study utilizes an integrated approach for subduction zone paleoseismology as a solution for unraveling recurrence and rupture patterns in Alaska, which can be applied worldwide.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Dendroseismological investigation of redwood trees along the North Coast section of the San Andreas Fault

Sequoia sempervirens (coast redwood) tree rings have the potential to annually resolve late-Holocene earthquakes on the northern San Andreas Fault based on direct (e.g., physical damage) and indirect (e.g., co-seismic environmental change) impacts, but scarcity of suitable samples and challenges crossdating this long-lived species have limited progress. More precise dating of the pre-1906 (penultimate) earthquake can improve hazard assessment and understanding of rupture segmentation. We target old trees (maximum >815 yr) along the North Coast section of the fault (increment cores via rope-climbing, 11 living trees; plunge cuts, 23 stumps) and employ complementary disturbance detection methods including radial-growth averaging (tree- and series-level), cataloging anatomical indicators (e.g., traumatic resin ducts, TRD), and dating structural components (e.g., reiterated trunks, leans). Multi-centennial ring-width chronologies at Fort Ross (1569−2023) and Gualala (1397−2023) promote continued study with incomplete crossdating limiting utilization of some series. Growth pulses (reductions, releases) and TRD dispersed across the record reflect dynamic environments that obfuscate detection of earthquake signals. The 1906 earthquake did not leave strong signatures on most trees, and when it did, within-tree response varied from normal presentation to discoloration, TRD, and missing rings. Synchrony of indicators at both locations identified 1678−1680 (6 of 15 trees) and 1698−1700 (8 of 16 trees) as the strongest disturbances among dated rings in the time range of the penultimate earthquake, peaking at 1698 (15.7 % of possible growth and anatomical indicators), but the triggering mechanisms for these events are unknown.

California↗
USGS2025

Searching for seismic precursors - The Barry Landslide hazard clean up

The Barry Landslide, located in Barry Arm of Prince William Sound, Alaska, poses a major hazard due to its steep, unstable slopes and the potential for a massive landslide-generated tsunami. With an estimated volume of 500–700 million cubic meters, the Barry Landslide could trigger highly destructive waves. In this study, we focus on seismic signals from the Barry Landslide, which are critical for providing timely tsunami warnings. Since the summer of 2020, the region has been instrumented to monitor the landslide, but the seismic record is complicated by the presence of nearby glaciers and frequent regional earthquakes. Among these signals, we analyze a specific class of short-duration, high-frequency seismic events that exhibit strong seasonal variability, increasing in rate from late summer to mid-winter before ceasing abruptly in late winter or early spring. Our analysis suggests that the source of these signals is likely near or beneath Cascade Glacier, adjacent to the landslide, rather than within the landslide mass itself. We apply detection algorithms to construct a time history for this signal type, which we then compare with environmental factors like precipitation, temperature, and slope displacement data from ground-based radar and remote sensing. Correlations indicate that these seismic events may be driven by seasonal hydrological changes, particularly the freeze-up of subglacial water pathways. While these events are not directly linked to landslide motion, they serve as indirect markers of subsurface hydrological conditions that influence slope stability. Our findings highlight the complex interplay between glaciers, groundwater, and landslide dynamics, emphasizing the need for multi-parameter monitoring to assess evolving geohazards in the region.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Simulation of groundwater flow to evaluate hydrogeologic controls on a PFAS plume, Coakley Landfill Superfund Site, Rockingham County, New Hampshire

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), have been detected at combined concentrations above 2,000 nanograms per liter (ng/L) at groundwater seep locations near the Coakley Landfill Superfund site, in North Hampton, New Hampshire. The landfill was active from 1972 to 1985. An impermeable cap was placed on the landfill in 1998. The adjacent area to the Coakley Landfill has many water supply wells, and transport of PFAS compounds to the wells is a concern. Fracture anisotropy in the underlying bedrock aquifer complicates the understanding of PFAS transport because groundwater preferentially travels along fractures that may not align with the prevailing groundwater flow direction. In 2018, the U.S Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Geological Survey began an investigation of the groundwater flow from the Coakley Landfill site. This report describes the modification of a numerical groundwater-flow model for the local area around the Coakley Landfill and summarizes findings of the investigation. In addition, this report includes a brief description of PFOA and PFOS occurrence, a discussion of model construction, evaluation of model performance through calibration, and discussion of simulation results for two periods (before and after capping). Limitations are also discussed. Results show that simulated groundwater flow moves from the Coakley Landfill to the west and north. Advective transport modeling using particle tracking shows that groundwater from the landfill discharges primarily to streams to the west and north, and a small amount is transported to distal wells. Dilution of contaminants through advection and dispersion likely plays a role in whether PFAS compounds from the landfill will be detected above laboratory reporting levels at distal wells.

EarthArXiv↗
USGS2024

ECCOE Landsat quarterly Calibration and Validation report—Quarter 1, 2024

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Center of Excellence (ECCOE) focuses on improving the accuracy, precision, calibration, and product quality of remote-sensing data, leveraging years of multiscale optical system geometric and radiometric calibration and characterization experience. The ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team continually monitors the geometric and radiometric performance of active Landsat missions and makes calibration adjustments, as needed, to maintain data quality at the highest level. This report provides observed geometric and radiometric analysis results for Landsats 8 and 9 for quarter 1 (January–March), 2024. All data used to compile the Cal/Val analysis results presented in this report are freely available from the U.S. Geological Survey EarthExplorer website: https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov . This quarterly report is the third to include analysis results for Landsat 9, which was launched in September 2021. The inclusion of Landsat 9 analysis results was dependent on two factors: a complete reprocessing of the Landsat 9 data archive and enough time elapsing to begin formulating lifetime trends. In April 2023, all Landsat 9 image data acquired since the satellite’s launch were reprocessed to take advantage of calibration updates identified by the ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team. Additional information about the Landsat 9 reprocessing effort is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/news/upcoming-reprocessing-all-landsat-9-data . Additional information about Landsat 9 prelaunch, commissioning, and early on-orbit imaging performance is available at https://www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing/special_issues/15B4V2K92K . This quarterly report is the first to not include analysis results for Landsat 7 because Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imaging was suspended on January 19, 2024, after the satellite transitioned into full sunlight. The satellite has been drifting since early 2022 after being lowered from the nominal orbit altitude, and the transition into full sunlight is a result of the satellite operating in its extended science mission. Additional information about the imaging suspension is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/news/landsat-7-imaging-suspended . Additional information about the Landsat 7 extended science mission is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/landsat-7-extended-science-mission .

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

ECCOE Landsat quarterly Calibration and Validation report—Quarter 2, 2024

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Center of Excellence (ECCOE) focuses on improving the accuracy, precision, calibration, and product quality of remote-sensing data, leveraging years of multiscale optical system geometric and radiometric calibration and characterization experience. The ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team continually monitors the geometric and radiometric performance of active Landsat missions and makes calibration adjustments, as needed, to maintain data quality at the highest level. This report provides observed geometric and radiometric analysis results for Landsats 8 and 9 for quarter 2 (April–June) of 2024. All data used to compile the Cal/Val analysis results presented in this report are freely available from the U.S. Geological Survey EarthExplorer website: https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov . This is the fourth quarterly report to include analysis results for Landsat 9, which was launched in September 2021. The inclusion of Landsat 9 analysis results was dependent on two factors: a complete reprocessing of the Landsat 9 data archive and enough time elapsing to begin formulating lifetime trends. In April 2023, all Landsat 9 image data acquired since the satellite’s launch were reprocessed to take advantage of calibration updates identified by the ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team. Additional information about the Landsat 9 reprocessing effort is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/news/upcoming-reprocessing-all-landsat-9-data . Additional information about Landsat 9 prelaunch, commissioning, and early on-orbit imaging performance is available at https://www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing/special_issues/15B4V2K92K . This is the second quarterly report that does not include analysis results for Landsat 7 because Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imaging was suspended on January 19, 2024, after the satellite transitioned into full sunlight. The satellite has been drifting since early 2022 when it was lowered from the nominal orbit altitude, and the transition into full sunlight is a result of the satellite operating in its extended science mission. Additional information about the imaging suspension is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/news/landsat-7-imaging-suspended . Additional information about the Landsat 7 extended science mission is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/landsat-7-extended-science-mission .

Open-File Report↗
USGS1998

Design, revisions, and considerations for continued use of a ground-water-flow model of the coastal plain aquifer system in Virginia

A digital numerical model of the ground-water-flow system in the Virginia Coastal Plain was constructed as part of the Regional Aquifer System Analysis program of the U.S. Geological Survey and subsequently revised based on reinterpretations of the hydrogeologic framework. The revised model has been incorporated by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality as a means to evaluate the effects of existing and proposed ground-water withdrawals. The revised model, which is documented here, includes many design features of the original model. Principal modifications are (1) reassignment of some model layers to represent different aquifers, (2) replacement of applied recharge and the uppermost surface-water layer by constant-head cells to represent the unconfined aquifer, and (3) revision of the lateral extents and transmissivity and vertical leakance values assigned to model layers. Ground-water levels simulated by the revised model under steady-state conditions, using withdrawal rates representing the period 1978-80, generally are similar to the water levels simulated by the original model under transient conditions using the same withdrawal rates. Differences probably result largely from changes in transmissivity and vertical leakance values. T he revised model enables the continued evaluation of development of the large and complex aquifer system. Improved information on parts of some aquifers has been incorporated. Only large, regional-scale trends in ground-water water levels, flow directions, and flow rates are simulated, however, and not local trends and (or) short-term changes in water level and flow. Changing hydraulic stresses, knowledge of hydrogeologic conditions, and resource-management needs require periodic revision of the model to maintain its usefulness for the management of ground-water resources in the Virginia Coastal Plain.

Virginia↗
USGS2024

Simulated mean monthly groundwater-transported nitrogen loads in watersheds on the north shore of Long Island Sound, 1993–2022

Elevated nitrogen loads are pervasive in the Long Island Sound, an estuary that receives freshwater and nutrients from both surface-water and groundwater discharge. Surface-water nitrogen loads to the Long Island Sound are relatively well characterized, but less is known about groundwater-transported nitrogen loads. Prior work on the northern shore of Long Island Sound (Connecticut and areas of New York and Rhode Island) suggested that groundwater travel times are relatively short (median less than 2 years) and that decade-long nutrient legacies are not widespread. Because the travel times are short, groundwater flow and nutrient loads likely vary substantially between months. In the current study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Long Island Sound Study and the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, developed a set of models to better characterize spatial and temporal patterns of groundwater-transported nitrogen loading from atmospheric deposition, septic systems, and fertilizers within the study area. The models provide an estimate, with uncertainty, of groundwater-transported nitrogen loads in the study area, filling a key gap in the nitrogen budget for Long Island Sound. The models also highlight the spatial and temporal variation in nitrogen loading throughout the study area. The modeling workflow involved four models. (1) A soil-water-balance model was developed by using the Soil-Water-Balance software to simulate groundwater recharge across the study area for water years 2005 through 2022. The simulated mean monthly recharge from the soil-water-balance model was used as input into a groundwater-flow model. (2) The groundwater-flow model was developed by using the MODFLOW 6 software and data for water years 1993 through 2022 and simulates average monthly hydrologic conditions. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated by using the Iterative Ensemble Smoother method within the PEST++ software. The Iterative Ensemble Smoother method generates an ensemble of sets of parameter values, with each set producing reasonable simulated hydrologic parameter values. (3) An ensemble of MODPATH particle-tracking simulations were run to generate particle flow paths and travel times, with each simulation using a different set of the flow model parameters. (4) A nitrogen load model uses the MODPATH simulation outputs to track nitrogen from the land surface through multiple attenuation zones until it discharges into fresh or saline surface water. As with the groundwater-flow model, the nitrogen model simulated average monthly groundwater-transported nitrogen loads for water years 1993 through 2022. One novel aspect of the nitrogen load model is that the nitrogen attenuation parameters were calibrated to observed nitrogen loads. Across the ensemble of simulated nitrogen loads, the median study-area-wide monthly simulated nitrogen loads from the aquifer to Long Island Sound throughout the year ranged from 900 to 18,600 kilograms of nitrogen per day, with a median load of 5,100 kilograms of nitrogen per day. The simulated loads were based on average monthly conditions for water years 1993 through 2022. Loads were highest during the winter and early spring and lowest during the late summer. However, simulated travel times for groundwater and nitrogen loads discharged to Long Island Sound during summer were longer than travel times for groundwater and loads discharged during the winter, indicating that, on average, groundwater discharged during summer traveled along different, and longer, flow paths, than groundwater discharged during winter. This indicates that summer loads would respond more slowly to changes in nitrogen inputs at the water table than winter loads. Over the entire study area, approximately 15 percent of the simulated load is from atmospheric deposition sources, 30 to 40 percent is from fertilizer, and 50 to 60 percent is from septic systems. The final analysis of the study involved simulating the change in groundwater-transported nitrogen load in response to upgrading septic systems or reducing fertilizing inputs to areas of turf grass. Both management interventions reduced the groundwater-transported nitrogen load, and reductions were greater in areas with greater loads from septic systems or turf-grass fertilizers. The delay between management actions and substantial reductions in groundwater-transported nitrogen loads varied seasonally; loads during the late summer months remained elevated longer than the winter loads.

Connecticut, Rhode Island↗
USGS2026

Simulation of groundwater flow to evaluate hydrogeologic controls on a PFAS plume, Coakley Landfill Superfund site, Rockingham County, New Hampshire

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), have been detected at combined concentrations above 2,000 nanograms per liter (ng/L) at groundwater seep locations near the Coakley Landfill Superfund site, in North Hampton, New Hampshire. The landfill was active from 1972 to 1985. An impermeable cap was placed on the landfill in 1998. The adjacent area to the Coakley Landfill has many water supply wells, and transport of PFAS compounds to the wells is a concern. Fracture anisotropy in the underlying bedrock aquifer complicates the understanding of PFAS transport because groundwater preferentially travels along fractures that may not align with the prevailing groundwater flow direction. In 2018, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Geological Survey began an investigation of the groundwater flow from the Coakley Landfill site. This report describes the modification of a numerical groundwater-flow model for the local area around the Coakley Landfill and summarizes findings of the investigation. In addition, this report includes a brief description of PFOA and PFOS occurrence, a discussion of model construction, evaluation of model performance through calibration, and discussion of simulation results for two periods (before and after capping). Limitations are also discussed. Results show that simulated groundwater flow moves from the Coakley Landfill to the west and north. Advective transport modeling using particle tracking shows that groundwater from the landfill discharges primarily to streams to the west and north, and a small amount is transported to distal wells. Dilution of contaminants through advection and dispersion likely plays a role in whether PFAS compounds from the landfill will be detected above laboratory reporting levels at distal wells.

New Hampshire↗
USGS2025

Evidence of mineral alteration in a salt marsh subterranean estuary: Implications for carbon and trace element cycling

Subterranean estuaries (STE) in salt marshes are biogeochemically active zones where interactions between terrestrial groundwater and seawater drive complex cycling of carbon and trace elements, influenced by mineral dissolution. These systems, characterized by fine-grained organic-rich peat overlying permeable coastal aquifers, play a crucial role as a blue carbon sink, yet their geochemical dynamics remain poorly understood. We investigated dissolved trace elements, carbon, silica, and radium isotopes in a salt marsh STE (Sage Lot Pond, Waquoit Bay, MA) over seasonal and annual cycles. Our results reveal that groundwater and estuarine water circulation through marsh peat and aquifer sediments leads to enrichments of dissolved organic and inorganic carbon (DOC and DIC), Si, Ba, and Mn, with variable source/sink behavior of Fe and net removal of U. Submarine groundwater discharge dominated Ba fluxes, whereas pore water drainage from marsh peat acted as the main sink for U and source of Si. Fe cycling was variable, with terrestrial Fe largely removed as groundwater passed through the STE, consistent with Fe-sulfide and amorphous phase formation. Radium isotope ratios identified two distinct subsurface flow pathways, influenced by metal-oxide cycling and organic matter breakdown. Si production was decoupled from DIC, suggesting Si originates from mineral alteration, whereas DIC results from both mineral weathering and microbial respiration. Silicate mineral alteration, coupled with marsh pore water drainage, accounts for up to 16% of annual DIC exports (66 g C m −2 y −1 ), highlighting the importance of STEs in coastal carbon and trace element cycling, especially as marshes face environmental change.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2025

The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting Rhode Island’s economy

Introduction High-resolution elevation data are critical to applications of landscape modeling and planning, both of which have a significant effect on Rhode Island’s economy. In these and other enterprises, program managers, while aiming to strike a balance between accuracy and cost, strive to obtain the best available elevation data to help them address a range of issues. Programs focused on climate change, environmental management, transportation design and asset management, aviation navigation and safety, riverine ecosystem management, wildlife habitat characterization and management, shellfish aquaculture, and the management and mapping of forests, parks and recreation areas, soils, wetlands, and impervious surfaces are also among the critical applications that meet the State’s management needs and depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features. The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) is managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with Federal, State, Tribal, U.S. territorial, and local agencies to acquire consistent lidar coverage at quality level 2 or better to meet the many needs of the Nation and Rhode Island. The status of available and in-progress 3DEP baseline lidar data in Rhode Island is shown in figure 1. 3DEP baseline lidar data include quality level 2 or better, 1-meter or better digital elevation models, and lidar point clouds, and must meet the Lidar Base Specification version 1.2 ( https://www.usgs.gov/3dep/lidarspec ) or newer requirements. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment identified user requirements and conservatively estimated that availability of lidar data would result in at least $178,560 in new benefits annually to the State. The top 10 Rhode Island business uses for 3D elevation data, which are based on the estimated annual conservative benefits of 3DEP, are shown in table 2.

Rhode Island↗
USGS2024

Hydrologic investigations and a preliminary conceptual model of the groundwater system at North Penn Area 1 Superfund Site, Souderton, Montgomery County, Pennsylvania

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted hydrogeologic investigations, reviewed existing data, and developed a preliminary conceptual model of the groundwater system as part of technical support of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) at the North Penn Area 1 Superfund Site (hereafter, the NP1 Site) located within the Borough of Souderton in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. Field work and monitoring took place during 2012–18. The area is underlain by sedimentary formations that form a fractured-rock aquifer used for drinking water and industrial supply. The EPA placed the Site on the National Priorities List in 1989, identifying tetrachloroethylene (PCE) and trichloroethylene (TCE) as contaminants of concern. During 2012–18, the USGS conducted field activities that included drilling an 82-foot (ft)-deep monitoring well (MG 2220) in 2016, reconstructing a 208-ft-deep former industrial production well (MG 668 [Granite Knitting Mill]), and collecting borehole geophysical and video logs and water levels from those and five additional wells, which ranged in depth from about 50 to 200 ft below land surface. Continuous water levels were collected during 2014–17, and a synoptic set of water levels were measured in April 2018 in the seven wells. The borehole geophysical logs (caliper, acoustic televiewer, natural gamma, single-point resistance, vertical flow, and fluid temperature and resistivity) and borehole video logs in the seven wells were evaluated to assess potential for lithologic correlation and to identify and describe water-bearing features, which included both low- and high-angle fractures and other openings oriented along dipping bedding planes, joints, or possible faults. Borehole geophysical logs collected by USGS in 1992 in a 300-ft-deep former production well near the Site were also evaluated. Few to no distinctive features were identified on geophysical logs (natural gamma and single-point resistance) that could be used for correlation, thus limiting this approach to determining local geologic structure. Extensive fracturing in the upper 62 ft of monitoring well MG 2220 indicates that the well was likely drilled through a zone of faulting, and other evidence of faulting is present in the area near the Site. Assessment of continuous water levels showed hydraulic connections among some wells as indicated by rising or falling water levels in response to changes in pumping rates at nearby wells. A map of water levels measured in April 2018 indicates potential for groundwater flow generally toward the stream to the south and southwest of the Site, but the limited water-level data are insufficient to describe vertical groundwater gradients or lateral gradients in any detail. Review of 1999–2022 volatile organic compound (VOC) monitoring data collected by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection for five monitoring wells indicates that the highest groundwater concentrations of PCE and TCE were found in samples from extraction well MG 2201 (S-1) downgradient from, and nearest to, the previously identified Site contaminant source area, and these concentrations fluctuated through time. PCE concentrations were higher than TCE concentrations in samples from all five monitoring wells and were much higher than TCE concentrations in samples from extraction well MG 2201 (S-1). Temporally variable recharge is a possible factor affecting observed fluctuations in PCE concentrations in groundwater samples from well extraction MG 2201 (S-1), as indicated by a general inverse relation between PCE concentrations and water levels in a nearby long-term observation well. The PCE concentration of 1,830 micrograms per liter (μg/L) in a May 2018 water sample from monitoring well MG 2220 was more than four times the PCE concentration of 444 μg/L in a December 2017 sample from the nearby extraction well MG 2201 (S-1), which is open to fewer fractures. Low concentrations of VOCs were measured in surface water at two stream sites downgradient from wells with the highest groundwater VOC concentrations at the Site, indicating that discharge of contaminated groundwater to the stream is likely. Development of a conceptual model of the groundwater system was constrained by limited data. In areas with no pumping, groundwater-flow directions generally are thought to be controlled by topography and geologic structure (bedding orientation) and likely to the south and southwest of the Site, with local flow directions affected by orientations of fractures, joints, and local faults. Additional investigations that could help improve the conceptual model of the groundwater system and help delineate the extent of groundwater contamination and its transport are discussed.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2024

Perchlorate, metals, organic compounds, and lead isotopes in groundwater, surface water, shallow groundwater, and soil within and near the Middleton Municipal Airport–Morey Field (C29), Middleton, Wisconsin, 2022

The Middleton Municipal Airport–Morey Field (C29) is in the City of Middleton and adjacent to the towns of Middleton and Springfield, Wisconsin. Nearby homes in the towns rely on private drinking water wells, and residents are concerned about the potential contamination of groundwater and surface water by airport activities, including flights by small aircraft that use leaded aviation fuel and a fireworks display in July 2021. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Town of Middleton, completed a study in 2022 to characterize the occurrence and sources of perchlorate, metals (including lead), and organic compounds in samples of groundwater, surface water, shallow groundwater, and soils within and near the airport. Lead isotopes were also measured to determine sources of lead by comparing samples to environmental references. Magnitudes of concentrations from samples of water and soil collected in 2022, and their spatial patterns across site locations, indicate the fireworks display in July 2021 was a likely source of perchlorate and metals in the airport study area. The highest perchlorate concentration was measured in surface water at the southeastern corner of the airport near the fireworks launch site; the highest concentrations of fireworks-associated metals were measured in shallow groundwater near the same location. Fireworks were not the only possible source of perchlorate and metals in the airport study area because both were also detected upgradient and away from the fireworks launch site. Ratios of lead isotopes indicate that lead measured in water and soil within the airport study area was primarily sourced from background atmospheric lead deposition or Wisconsin galena lead ore. However, two groundwater samples (one upgradient and one downgradient from the airport; both with concentrations less than 1 microgram per liter) had isotopic signatures matching leaded aviation fuel sold at the airport.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2026

Regional models for postfire debris-flow likelihood and rainfall thresholds across the western United States

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) uses an empirical model developed with logistic regression (the ‘M1’ model) to rapidly assess debris-flow likelihood and to identify quantitative rainfall thresholds for debris flows after wildfire in the western United States. The M1 model was calibrated to a debris-flow inventory from southern California (United States) and has been applied throughout the western United States. Limited spatial coverage in the calibration dataset has motivated evaluation of M1 model accuracy outside the calibration region (e.g., the Sierra Nevada or the eastern Cascade Range, United States). Previous test cases showed that M1 overpredicts debris-flow likelihood and underpredicts rainfall thresholds for some locations (e.g., Arizona, northern California, Colorado, New Mexico, United States). We sought to improve the regional applicability of a debris-flow likelihood model by expanding the debris-flow inventory used for calibration, testing multiple potential models and generating an updated model framework. The updated inventory includes 3788 observations from 67 burned areas paired with short duration rainfall ratios. The updated model framework consists of a modified model structure and sets of coefficients calibrated separately to the entire updated inventory and to subsets of the inventory that intersect three Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Level 2 ecoregions (Mediterranean California, Upper Gila Mountains and Western Cordillera). Comparisons of predictions from the updated models with observed rainfall and debris-flow activity show that the updated models outperform the M1 model by ~15%–60% and improve the uniformity of predictive performance across the western United States. The updated models also reduce false positive rates relative to M1 and generate rainfall thresholds that are better aligned with relative differences in regional climatology and debris-flow activity.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗
USGS2025

A review of abrupt permafrost thaw: Definitions, usage, and a proposed conceptual framework

Purpose of Review We review how ‘abrupt thaw’ has been used in published studies, compare these definitions to abrupt processes in other Earth science disciplines, and provide a definitive framework for how abrupt thaw should be used in the context of permafrost science. Recent Findings We address several aspects of permafrost systems necessary for abrupt thaw to occur and propose a framework for classifying permafrost processes as abrupt thaw in the future. Based on a literature review and our collective expertise, we propose that abrupt thaw refers to thaw processes that lead to a substantial persistent environmental change within a few decades. Abrupt thaw typically occurs in ice-rich permafrost but may be initiated in ice-poor permafrost by external factors such as hydrologic change (i.e., increased streamflow, soil moisture fluctuations, altered groundwater recharge) or wildfire. Summary Permafrost thaw alters greenhouse gas emissions, soil and vegetation properties, and hydrologic flow, threatening infrastructure and the cultures and livelihoods of northern communities. The term ‘abrupt thaw’ has emerged in scientific discourse over the past two decades to differentiate processes that rapidly impact large depths of permafrost, such as thermokarst, from more gradual, top-down thaw processes that impact centimeters of near-surface permafrost over years to decades. However, there has been no formal definition for abrupt thaw and its use in the scientific literature has varied considerably. Our standardized definition of abrupt thaw offers a path forward to better understand drivers and patterns of abrupt thaw and its consequences for global greenhouse gas budgets, impacts to infrastructure and land-use, and Arctic policy- and decision-making.

Current Climate Change Reports↗
USGS2026

A practical decision tool for marine bird mortality assessments

Given the rise in anthropogenic, environmental, and disease events contributing to marine bird mortality, there is a critical need to improve the rigor of mortality assessments. Deficits in data collection and mortality estimation can hinder a manager’s ability to document the scale of events and assess population level impacts. Therefore, to inform decisions required during activities, such as conservation status assessments or harvest management, organizations may choose to incorporate mortality assessments into response plans. Resources, capacity, and assets to assess mortality vary across jurisdictions (federal, state, Indigenous, local, etc.), and clear guidance to support mortality assessments is often unavailable or not clearly addressed. Here, we present a decision support tool to help managers identify and evaluate survey options to assess bird mortality in a diverse array of scenarios. The objective of the decision tool is to improve data collection and availability, which will increase the ability to estimate mortality robustly, given situation-specific attributes and constraints. This decision tool is designed to guide the response when a mortality event is initially encountered and offers suggestions for assessment and reporting procedures in the absence of other guidance or to complement existing protocols. The decision tool is also meant to inform decision making for response determination and resource allocation. The tool facilitates examination of options for further assessment and monitoring, which users determine by examining questions pertaining to species prioritization, determination of mortality minimum spatial extent, and the potential magnitude of impacts on affected species. Finally, identification of appropriate survey methods that address imperfect detection when a complete census is not possible are determined by exploring location, spatial and temporal extent, and the type of species affected. Ultimately, this decision tool aims to facilitate and improve the standardization of mortality assessments, equipping managers with a practical resource to navigate the decision-making process for marine bird mortality estimation.

Ornithological Applications↗
USGS2024

Produced water geochemistry from hydraulically stimulated Niobrara Formation petroleum wells: Origin of salinity and temporal perspectives on treatment and reuse

Produced water (i.e., a mixture of returned injection fluids and geologic formation brines) represents the largest volumetric waste stream associated with petroleum production in the United States. As such, produced water has been the focus of intense study with emphasis on understanding the geologic origin of the fluids, environmental impacts of unintended or intentional release, disposal concerns, and their commodity (e.g., lithium) potential. However, produced water geochemistry from many active petroleum plays remain poorly constrained leading to knowledge gaps associated with the origin of brine salinity and parameters (e.g., radium levels) that can impact treatment, disposal, and possible reuse. Here we evaluate the major ion geochemistry, radium concentrations, and stable water isotope composition of ~120 produced water samples collected from 17 producing unconventional petroleum wells in Weld County, Colorado from the Late Cretaceous Niobrara Formation. This sample set encompasses eight produced water time series from four new wells across production days 0 to ~365 and from four established wells across production days ~1000 to ~1700. Additionally, produced water from nine other established Niobrara Formation wells were sampled at discrete time points ranging from day 458 to day 2256, as well as hydraulic fracturing input fluids. These results expand the available Niobrara Formation produced water geochemical data, previously limited to few wells sampled within the first year of production, allowing for the heterogeneity of major ions and radium to be evaluated. Furthermore, we explore the geochemical relationships between major ion ratios and stable water isotope composition to understand the origin of salinity in Niobrara Formation brines from the Denver-Julesburg Basin. These findings are discussed with perspective toward potential treatment and reuse of Niobrara produced water prior to disposal.

Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming↗