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Hydrogeology and geochemistry of acid mine drainage in ground water in the vicinity of Penn Mine and Camanche Reservoir, Calaveras County, California: First-year summary

Acid drainage from the Penn Mine in Calaveras County, California, has caused contamination of ground water between Mine Run Dam and Camanche Reservoir. The Penn Mine was first developed in the 1860's primarily for copper and later produced lesser amounts of zinc, lead, silver, and gold from steeply dipping massive sulfide lenses in metamorphic rocks. Surface disposal of sulfidic waste rock and tailings from mine operations has produced acidic drainage with pH values between 2.3 and 2.7 and elevated concentrations of sulfate and metals, including copper, zinc, cadmium, iron, and aluminum. During the mine's operation and after its subsequent abandonment in the late 1950's, acid mine drainage flowed down Mine Run into the Mokelumne River. Construction of Camanche Dam in 1963 flooded part of the Mokelumne River adjacent to Penn Mine. Surface-water diversions and unlined impoundments were constructed at Penn Mine in 1979 to reduce runoff from the mine, collect contaminated surface water, and enhance evaporation. Some of the contaminated surface water infiltrates the ground water and flows toward Camanche Reservoir. Ground- water flow in the study area is controlled by the local hydraulic gradient and the hydraulic characteristics of two principal rock types, a Jurassic metavolcanic unit and the underlying Salt Spring slate. The hydraulic gradient is west from Mine Run impoundment toward Camanche Reservoir. The median hydraulic conductivity was about 10 to 50 times higher in the metavolcanic rock (0.1 foot per day) than in the slate (0.002 to 0.01 foot per day); most flow occurs in the metavolcanic rock where hydraulic conductivity is as high as 50 feet per day in two locations. The contact between the two rock units is a fault plane that strikes N20?W, dips 20?NE, and is a likely conduit for ground-water flow, based on down-hole measurements with a heatpulse flowmeter. Analyses of water samples collected during April 1992 provide a comprehensive characterization of ground water below Mine Run Dam at the Penn Mine. Specific conductance of the samples ranged from 1,810 to 18,000 microsiemens per centimeter. pH values of sampled ground water ranged from 3.7 to 7.8. Dissolved constituents in ground water ranged from less than 0.010 to 86 milligrams per liter for copper, from less than 0.010 to 240 milligrams per liter for iron, from less than 0.01 to 250 milligrams per liter for aluminum, and from 0.020 to 600 milligrams per liter for zinc. A contaminated ground-water plume appears to originate in the metavolcanic unit along the north abutment of Mine Run Dam. The plume is characterized by low pH, high concentrations of sulfate and dissolved metals, and enrichment of the heavy stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen. Dissolved iron and sulfate correlate positively, suggesting pyrite as the probable source of these elements. The concentrations of some dissolved constituents apparently are controlled by equilibrium with solid mineral phases. Poorly crystalline hydrous ferric oxide and microcrystalline gibbsite are close to saturation in ground water with pH values between 4 and 7.8 and probably control the solubility of Fe 3+ and Al 3+ , respectively. Using a range of bulk hydraulic conductivity values for the metavolcanic unit from the median value (0.1 foot per day) to the highest values (50 feet per day), together with a representative cross-sectional area (3,000 square feet) for the contaminated ground-water plume and a hydraulic gradient of 0.14 from August 1992, the following range in ground-water flow rates is estimated by Darcy's law: 42 to 21,000 cubic feet per day, or 10 5 to 5x10 7 gallons per year. Multiplying this estimated range in ground-water flow by representative metal concentrations from the contaminated plume gives the following estimates for annual metal transport to Camanche Reservoir by ground water: 86 to 42,000 pounds of copper; 310 to 150,000 pounds of zinc; and 1.5 to 750 pounds of cadmium.

California↗

Aquatic biology in Nederlo Creek, southwestern Wisconsin

This report presents the results of biologic investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources during a study of hydrology and water quality in a small drainage basin in the "Driftless Area" of southwest Wisconsin. The investigation included aquatic macrophytes, periphytic and planktonic algae, benthic invertebrates, and trout population dynamics during 1967-78. The aquatic community is diverse and reasonably stable with little indication of environmental disturbance. Aquatic macrophyte population (dominated by Ranunculus aquatilis L., Veronica catenata Penn., and Nasturtium offlcinale) varies little from spring to fall. Periphytic and planktonic algae are predominantly diatoms, with the genus Achnanthes dominating both communities. Most genera of planktonic algae originate in the periphyton, but some true planktonic algae were identified. The benthic invertebrate population is dominated by Trichoptera and is a major food source for trout and forage fish. Biotic index values calculated from benthic invertebrate data indicate that water quality is very good to excellent. The trout population is low and represents only a small part of the total fish population both in biomass and numbers. Brown trout are usually stocked annually in the spring to enhance sport fishing, but by fall most trout are wild. The major environmental factors limiting trout population seem to be insufficient cover, insufficient pool depth and volume, and small spawning areas. The wild trout population is highly dependent on spawning success the previous fall.

Wisconsin↗

Use of selected basin characteristics to estimate mean annual runoff and peak discharges for ungaged streams in drainage basins containing strippable coal resources, northwestern New Mexico

Equations in this report can be used to estimate mean annual runoff and peak discharges for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 100-year recurrence intervals for ungaged streams in drainage basins containing strippable coal resources in northwestern New Mexico. These streamflow characteristics are related to basin characteristics that were found to be significant, using regression techniques. Mean annual runoff for ephemeral streams is related to drainage area, active-channel width, main-channel slope, basin slope, and silt-clay percentage in active-channel banks. Peak discharges for ephemeral, intermittent, and perennial streams are related to drainage area, active-channel width, main-channel length, basin slope, and silt-clay percentage in active-channel banks. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Springs of California

In 1903 the United States Geological Survey began an investigation of the underground water of California, generally with financial cooperation on the part of the State. Since that year ten papers on the underground water of the State have been issued by the Survey, each representing an investigation that has been completed. The field work which is to serve as the basis for two additional papers has also been done and the reports are in preparation. Investigations have been begun in two other areas in the State and their results will eventually be assembled and published. Since a period soon after the inception of the California work those responsible for its conduct have realized the desirability of a special study of the springs, particularly those which yield mineral waters and which are utilized to a greater or less extent by citizens of the State and by tourists as recreation and health resorts. It did not become practicable to begin this work until the summer of 1908, when Mr. G. A. Waring, who had assisted in some of the earlier California studies and had investigated for the Survey certain areas in southern Oregon and Washington, was assigned to the task of collecting and assembling the necessary data. California, with an area of 158,000 square miles, is the second largest State in the Union. It exhibits wide geographic diversity, since it includes the lowest area in the United States Death Valley, 276 feet below sea level and the highest Mount Whitney, 14,501 feet above the sea; and accompanying this geographic diversity there is a corresponding range in scenic effects, climate, and vegetation. The records obtained at meteorological stations in the Salton Sink indicate a maximum temperature of 130° in the shade, the highest of record within the continental United States. It is probable that minimum temperatures on the higher peaks, like Mount Whitney and Mount Shasta, approach the minimum within our boundaries. Rainfall records in the most arid sections of the southern deserts of the State represent the extreme of aridity in the United States, with averages of less than 3 inches per annum and periods of 12 months or more with only traces of rain, whereas the precipitation in northwestern California is very heavy, an annual average of close to 100 inches being recorded at a few stations in Mendocino and Del Norte counties. The immensity of the area of the State has made the collection of the field data required for the report a task of considerable magnitude, though its diversity has added greatly to the interest of the work. In the original plan it was estimated that two years of field studies would prove sufficient. Mr. Waring succeeded in visiting the more important localities during this period, although some of his examinations were, of necessity, rather cursory. In midsummer, 1910, after the completion of the field work and the assembling of the greater portion of his data in manuscript form he was called by the Government of Brazil to take charge of general water supply investigations in the northeastern arid portion of that South American republic. The task of reviewing, editing, and supplementing in some respects, the results of his studies was thus unavoidably left to others. This task was rendered light by the systematic form in which Mr. Waring's material was left. It was a matter of regret to Mr. Waring, as it has been to those associated with him, that the financial limitations which controlled his work made it impracticable to procure the large number of new analyses which are particularly important in a paper of this type, in which waters of unusual chemical characteristics are discussed. Such analyses as are available have been assembled from all possible sources and combined with those which were prepared especially in connection with this investigation. The result, although it is in some respects unsatisfactory, furnishes a basis for a general view of the characteristics of the spring waters and serves to permit, their classification in a general way. Mr. Herman Stabler has reviewed the chemical data and rearranged and interpreted the available analyses. It is hoped that the report, setting forth as it does the results of impartial observations upon one of the important present and more important prospective resources of the State, will prove of value to its citizens as well as to its visitors, and that the assembled material will not be without interest to physicians, chemists, geologists, and teachers who may have especial need for the information contained in the volume.

California↗

Hydrogeologic framework, groundwater movement, and water budget of the Kitsap Peninsula, west-central Washington

This report presents information used to characterize the groundwater-flow system on the Kitsap Peninsula, and includes descriptions of the geology and hydrogeologic framework, groundwater recharge and discharge, groundwater levels and flow directions, seasonal groundwater-level fluctuations, interactions between aquifers and the surface‑water system, and a water budget. The Kitsap Peninsula is in the Puget Sound lowland of west-central Washington, is bounded by Puget Sound on the east and by Hood Canal on the west, and covers an area of about 575 square miles. The peninsula encompasses all of Kitsap County, the part of Mason County north of Hood Canal, and part of Pierce County west of Puget Sound. The peninsula is surrounded by saltwater and the hydrologic setting is similar to that of an island. The study area is underlain by a thick sequence of unconsolidated glacial and interglacial deposits that overlie sedimentary and volcanic bedrock units that crop out in the central part of the study area. Geologic units were grouped into 12 hydrogeologic units consisting of aquifers, confining units, and an underlying bedrock unit. A surficial hydrogeologic unit map was developed and used with well information from 2,116 drillers’ logs to construct 6 hydrogeologic sections and unit extent and thickness maps. Unconsolidated aquifers typically consist of moderately to well-sorted alluvial and glacial outwash deposits of sand, gravel, and cobbles, with minor lenses of silt and clay. These units often are discontinuous or isolated bodies and are of highly variable thickness. Unconfined conditions occur in areas where aquifer units are at land surface; however, much of the study area is mantled by glacial till, and confined aquifer conditions are common. Groundwater in the unconsolidated aquifers generally flows radially off the peninsula in the direction of Puget Sound and Hood Canal. These generalized flow patterns likely are complicated by the presence of low-permeability confining units that separate discontinuous bodies of aquifer material and act as local groundwater-flow barriers. Groundwater-level fluctuations observed during the monitoring period (2011–12) in wells completed in unconsolidated hydrogeologic units indicated seasonal variations ranging from 1 to about 20 feet. The largest fluctuation of 33 feet occurred in a well that was completed in the bedrock unit. Streamgage discharge measurements made during 2012 indicate that groundwater discharge to creeks in the area ranged from about 0.41 to 33.3 cubic feet per second. During 2012, which was an above-average year of precipitation, the groundwater system received an average of about 664,610 acre-feet of recharge from precipitation and 22,122 acre-feet of recharge from return flows. Most of this annual recharge (66 percent) discharged to streams, and only about 4 percent was withdrawn from wells. The remaining groundwater recharge (30 percent) left the groundwater system as discharge to Hood Canal and Puget Sound.

Washington↗

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for streams in the Red River of the North Basin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, 1970-2001

The Bureau of Reclamation is considering several alternatives to meet the future municipal, rural, and industrial water-supply needs in the Red River of the North (Red River) Basin, and an environmental impact statement is being prepared to evaluate the potential effects of the various alternatives on the water quality and aquatic health in the basin in relation to the historical variability of streamflow and constituent concentration. Therefore, a water-quality trend analysis was needed to determine the amount of natural water-quality variability that can be expected to occur in the basin, to determine if significant water-quality changes have occurred as a result of human activities, to explore potential causal mechanisms for water-quality changes, and to establish a baseline from which to monitor future water-quality trends. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, to analyze historical water-quality trends in two dissolved major ions, dissolved solids, three nutrients, and two dissolved trace metals for nine streamflow-gaging stations in the basin. Annual variability in streamflow in the Red River Basin was high during the trend-analysis period (1970-2001). The annual variability affects constituent concentrations in individual tributaries to the Red River and, in turn, affects constituent concentrations in the main stem of the Red River because of the relative streamflow contribution from the tributaries to the main stem. Therefore, an annual concentration anomaly, which is an estimate of the interannual variability in concentration that can be attributed to long-term variability in streamflow, was used to analyze annual streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. The concentration trend is an estimate of the long-term systematic changes in concentration that are unrelated to seasonal or long-term variability in streamflow. Concentrations that have both the seasonal and annual variability removed are called standardized concentrations. Numerous changes that could not be attributed to natural streamflow-related variability occurred in the standardized concentrations during the trend-analysis period. During various times from the late 1970's to the mid-1990's, significant increases occurred in standardized dissolved sulfate, dissolved chloride, and dissolved- solids concentrations for eight of the nine stations for which water-quality trends were analyzed. Significant increases also occurred from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's for standardized dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations for the main-stem stations. The increasing concentrations for the main-stem stations indicate the upward trends may have been caused by human activities along the main stem of the Red River. Significant trends for standardized total ammonia plus organic nitrogen concentrations occurred for most stations. The fitted trends for standardized total phosphorus concentrations for one tributary station increased from the late 1970's to the early 1980's and decreased from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's. Small but insignificant increases occurred for two main-stem stations. No trends were detected for standardized dissolved iron or dissolved manganese concentrations. However, the combination of extreme high-frequency variability, few data, and the number of censored values may have disguised the streamflow-related variability for iron. The time-series model used to detect historical concentration trends also was used to evaluate sampling designs to monitor future water-quality trends. Various sampling designs were evaluated with regard to their sensitivity to detect both annual and seasonal trends during three 4-month seasons. A reasonable overall design for detecting trends for all stations and constituents consisted of eight samples per year, with monthly sampling from April to August and bimonthly sampling from October to February.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Reserve growth in oil fields of the North Sea

The assessment of petroleum resources of the North Sea, as well as other areas of the world, requires a viable means to forecast the amount of growth of reserve estimates (reserve growth) for discovered fields and to predict the potential fully developed sizes of undiscovered fields. This study investigates the utility of North Sea oil field data to construct reserve-growth models. Oil fields of the North Sea provide an excellent dataset in which to examine the mechanisms, characteristics, rates and quantities of reserve growth because of the high level of capital investments, implementation of sophisticated technologies and careful data collection. Additionally, these field data are well reported and available publicly. Increases in successive annual estimat es of recoverable crude oil volumes indicate that oil fields in the North Sea, collectively and in each country, experience reserve growth. Specific patterns of reserve growth are observed among countries and primary producing reservoir-rock types. Since 1985, Norwegian oil fields had the greatest volume increase; Danish oil fields increased by the greatest percentage relative to 1985 estimates; and British oil fields experienced an increase in recoverable oil estimates for the first ten years since 1985, followed by a slight reduction. Fields producing primarily from clastic reservoirs account for the majority of the estimated recoverable oil and, therefore, these fields had the largest volumetric increase. Fields producing primarily from chalk (limestone) reservoirs increased by a greater percentage relative to 1985 estimates than did fields producing primarily from clastic reservoirs. Additionally, the largest oil fields had the greatest volumetric increases. Although different reserve-growth patterns are observed among oil fields located in different countries, the small number of fields in Denmark precludes construction of reserve-growth models for that country. However, differences in reserve-growth patterns among oil fields that produce from primarily clastic and primarily chalk reservoirs, in addition to a greater number of fields in each of the two categories, allow separate reserve-growth models to be constructed based on reservoir-rock type. Reserve-growth models referenced to the date of discovery and to the date of first production may be constructed from North Sea field data. Years since discovery or years since first production are used as surrogates for, or measures of, field-development effort that is applied to promote reserve growth. Better estimates of recoverable oil are made as fields are developed. Because much of the field development occurs some time later than the field discovery date, reserve-growth models referenced to the date of first production may provide a more appropriate measure of development than does date of discovery. ?? 2005 EAGE/Geological Society of London.

Petroleum Geoscience↗

Streamflow Simulations and Percolation Estimates Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for Selected Basins in North-Central Nebraska, 1940-2005

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Elkhorn, Lower Elkhorn, Upper Loup, Lower Loup, Middle Niobrara, Lower Niobrara, Lewis and Clark, and Lower Platte North Natural Resources Districts, used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate streamflow and estimate percolation in north-central Nebraska to aid development of long-term strategies for management of hydrologically connected ground and surface water. Although groundwater models adequately simulate subsurface hydrologic processes, they often are not designed to simulate the hydrologically complex processes occurring at or near the land surface. The use of watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, which are designed specifically to simulate surface and near-subsurface processes, can provide helpful insight into the effects of surface-water hydrology on the groundwater system. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated for five stream basins in the Elkhorn-Loup Groundwater Model study area in north-central Nebraska to obtain spatially variable estimates of percolation. Six watershed models were calibrated to recorded streamflow in each subbasin by modifying the adjustment parameters. The calibrated parameter sets were then used to simulate a validation period; the validation period was half of the total streamflow period of record with a minimum requirement of 10 years. If the statistical and water-balance results for the validation period were similar to those for the calibration period, a model was considered satisfactory. Statistical measures of each watershed model's performance were variable. These objective measures included the Nash-Sutcliffe measure of efficiency, the ratio of the root-mean-square error to the standard deviation of the measured data, and an estimate of bias. The model met performance criteria for the bias statistic, but failed to meet statistical adequacy criteria for the other two performance measures when evaluated at a monthly time step. A primary cause of the poor model validation results was the inability of the model to reproduce the sustained base flow and streamflow response to precipitation that was observed in the Sand Hills region. The watershed models also were evaluated based on how well they conformed to the annual mass balance (precipitation equals the sum of evapotranspiration, streamflow/runoff, and deep percolation). The model was able to adequately simulate annual values of evapotranspiration, runoff, and precipitation in comparison to reported values, which indicates the model may provide reasonable estimates of annual percolation. Mean annual percolation estimated by the model as basin averages varied within the study area from a maximum of 12.9 inches in the Loup River Basin to a minimum of 1.5 inches in the Shell Creek Basin. Percolation also varied within the studied basins; basin headwaters tended to have greater percolation rates than downstream areas. This variance in percolation rates was mainly was because of the predominance of sandy, highly permeable soils in the upstream areas of the modeled basins.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Effects of alternative instream-flow criteria and water-supply demands on ground-water development options in the Big River Area, Rhode Island

Transient numerical ground-water-flow simulation and optimization techniques were used to evaluate potential effects of instream-flow criteria and water-supply demands on ground-water development options and resultant streamflow depletions in the Big River Area, Rhode Island. The 35.7 square-mile (mi2) study area includes three river basins, the Big River Basin (30.9 mi2), the Carr River Basin (which drains to the Big River Basin and is 7.33 mi2 in area), the Mishnock River Basin (3.32 mi2), and a small area that drains directly to the Flat River Reservoir. The overall objective of the simulations was to determine the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn from the three basins when constrained by streamflow requirements at four locations in the study area and by maximum rates of withdrawal at 13 existing and hypothetical well sites. The instream-flow requirement for the outlet of each basin and the outfall of Lake Mishnock were the primary variables that limited the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn. A requirement to meet seasonal ground-water-demand patterns also limits the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn by up to about 50 percent of the total withdrawals without the demand-pattern constraint. Minimum water-supply demands from a public water supplier in the Mishnock River Basin, however, did not have a substantial effect on withdrawals in the Big River Basin. Hypothetical dry-period instream-flow requirements and the effects of artificial recharge also affected the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn. Results of simulations indicate that annual average ground-water withdrawal rates that range up to 16 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) can be withdrawn from the study area under simulated average hydrologic conditions depending on instream-flow criteria and water-supply demand patterns. Annual average withdrawals of 10 to 12 Mgal/d are possible for proposed demands of 3.4 Mgal/d in the Mishnock Basin, and for a constant annual instream-flow criterion of 0.5 cubic foot per second per square mile (ft3/s/mi2) at the four streamflow-constraint locations. An average withdrawal rate of 10 Mgal/d can meet estimates of future (2020) water-supply needs of surrounding communities in Rhode Island. This withdrawal rate represents about 13 percent of the average 2002 daily withdrawal from the Scituate Reservoir (76 Mgal/d), the State?s largest water supply. Average annual withdrawal rates of 6 to 7 Mgal/d are possible for more stringent instream-flow criteria that might be used during dry-period hydrologic conditions. Two example scenarios of dry-period instream-flow constraints were evaluated: first, a minimum instream flow of 0.1 cubic foot per second at any of the four constraint locations; and second, a minimum instream flow of 10 percent of the minimum monthly streamflow estimate for each streamflow-constraint location during the period 1961?2000. The State of Rhode Island is currently (2004) considering methods for establishing instream-flow criteria for streams within the State. Twelve alternative annual, seasonal, or monthly instream-flow criteria that have been or are being considered for application in southeastern New England were used as hypothetical constraints on maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates in management-model calculations. Maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates ranged from 5 to 16 Mgal/d under five alternative annual instream-flow criteria. Maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates ranged from 0 to 13.6 Mgal/d under seven alternative seasonal or monthly instream-flow criteria. The effect of ground-water withdrawals on seasonal variations in monthly average streamflows under each criterion also were compared. Evaluation of management-model results indicates that a single annual instream-flowcriterion may be sufficient to preserve seasonal variations in monthly average streamflows and meet water-supply demands in the Big River Area, because withdrawals from wells in the Big

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Simulation of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the middle Nueces River watershed, south Texas, 1961-2008

The U.S. Geological Survey—in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Fort Worth District; City of Corpus Christi; Guadalupe–Blanco River Authority; San Antonio River Authority; and San Antonio Water System— configured, calibrated, and tested a watershed model for a study area consisting of about 7,726 square miles of the middle Nueces River watershed in south Texas. The purpose of the model is to contribute to the understanding of watershed processes and hydrologic conditions in the middle Nueces River watershed. The model simulates streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge by using a numerical representation of physical characteristics of the landscape and meteorological and streamflow data. Model simulations of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge were performed for various periods of record depending upon available gaged data for input and comparison, starting as early as 1961. Because of the large size of the study area, the middle Nueces River watershed was divided into eight subwatersheds, and separate Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN models were developed for each subwatershed. Simulation of the overall study area involved running simulations in downstream order. Output from the model was summarized by subwatershed, point locations, stream and reservoir reaches, and the Carrizo– Wilcox aquifer outcrop area. Four long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations were used for streamflow model calibration and testing with data from 1990 to 2008. Monthly evaporation estimates from 2001 to 2008 and waterlevel data from 1961 to 2008 at Lake Corpus Christi also were used for model calibration. Additionally, evapotranspiration data for 2006–8 from a U.S. Geological Survey meteorological station in Medina County were used for calibration. Streamflow calibrations were considered poor to very good. The 2000–8 calibration results were characterized as good to very good for total flow volumes and for the volume of the highest 10 percent of daily flows. Calibration results for streamflow volumes of the lowest 50 percent of daily flows were considered poor. The daily streamflow calibration at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 08210000 Nueces River near Three Rivers, Tex., had the lowest (best) root mean square error, and U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 08194500 Nueces River near Tilden, Tex., had the highest root mean square error expressed as a percentage of the mean flow rate. The mean daily reservoir volume during 1961–2008 was 182,000 acre-feet. Simulated mean daily reservoir volume was within 9 percent of this computed volume. Selected results of the model include streamflow yields for the subwatersheds and water-balance information for the Carrizo–Wilcox aquifer outcrop area. For the entire model domain, the area-weighted mean streamflow yield from 1961 to 2008 was 1.12 inches/year. The mean annual rainfall on the outcrop area during the 1961–2008 simulation period was 21.7 inches. Of this rainfall, an annual mean of 20.1 inches (about 93 percent) was simulated as evapotranspiration, 1.2 inches (about 6 percent) was simulated as groundwater recharge, and 0.5 inches (about 2 percent) was simulated as surface runoff.

Texas↗

Flood-frequency estimation for very low annual exceedance probabilities using historical, paleoflood, and regional information with consideration of nonstationarity

Streamflow estimates for floods with an annual exceedance probability of 0.001 or lower are needed to accurately portray risks to critical infrastructure, such as nuclear powerplants and large dams. However, extrapolating flood-frequency curves developed from at-site systematic streamflow records to very low annual exceedance probabilities (less than 0.001) results in large uncertainties in the streamflow estimates. Traditionally, methods for statistically estimating flood frequency have relied on the systematic streamflow record, which provides a time series of annual maximum flood peaks, often including some historical peaks. However, most peak-flow records are less than 100 years, and uncertainties are large when trying to extrapolate magnitudes of very low annual exceedance probability events. Other data may be available that extend the record beyond the systematic dataset. Historical data are defined as data from outside the period of systematic records but within the period of human records. Examples of historical information include flood estimates from other agencies and newspaper accounts that can be translated to flood magnitude point estimates, interval estimates, or perception thresholds (such as a statement that an 1880 flood was the largest since 1869). Paleoflood data, which may also extend the dataset, include a broad range of information about flood occurrence or magnitude from sources like sediment deposits or tree rings. Several assumptions are made in flood-frequency analysis, and an understanding of whether the data conform to these assumptions is desired. A particularly difficult assumption to evaluate for flood-frequency analysis is the underlying assumption that the flood series is stationary—the assumption that a time series of peak flow varies around a constant mean within a particular range of values (constant variance). As the hydrologic community’s understanding of natural systems and anthropogenic effects on streamflows has evolved, the community has come to understand that many surface-water systems exhibit one or more forms of nonstationarity, and thus the stationarity assumption is often violated to some degree. However, there is currently (2020) no consensus among hydrologists regarding the most appropriate flood-frequency-analysis methods for nonstationary systems, and this topic remains an active area of research. A literature review was completed to summarize the state of the science of flood frequency. The literature review highlights tools available to detect nonstationarities and identifies approaches that include external information to inform flood-frequency analysis. To demonstrate methods for initial data analysis and for incorporating historical and paleoflood information in flood-frequency analysis, five sites were selected: the Red River of the North at James Avenue Pumping Station, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada; lower reach, Rapid Creek, South Dakota; Spring Creek, South Dakota; Cherry Creek near Melvin, Colorado; and Escalante River near Escalante, Utah. The sites were chosen for the availability of published historical and paleoflood data and for their geographic diversity and unique characteristics, which highlighted issues such as autocorrelation, change points, trends, outlier peaks, or short periods of record. An initial data analysis that involved examining records for autocorrelation, change points, and trends was completed for all sites. The flood-frequency analysis completed for this study used version 7.2 of the U.S. Geological Survey PeakFQ program. Multiple analyses were done on each site documenting the change in the flood-frequency curve when additional historical or paleoflood data were added. When other flood-frequency studies were available, their results were compared to the results here. The comparisons in some cases simply show the effect of additional years of data, whereas other comparisons show results from probability distributions or fitting methods other than those used in PeakFQ. For the Red River of the North, flood-frequency analysis shows that paleoflood data appear necessary to reasonably estimate very low annual exceedance probabilities. For the analysis of the lower reach of Rapid Creek and Spring Creek, paleoflood information helped put a high outlier from the systematic period in context; however, very low annual exceedance probabilities at these sites still had extraordinarily large confidence bounds. These sites also showed that paleoflood information might be transferred from one site to another, with the caveat that this is a case where we had existing paleoflood data to test the transfer of paleoflood information—this is not the case at many sites, and transferring paleoflood information requires assumptions about the comparability of floods at the sites. The Cherry Creek analysis affirmed the result of an earlier study that showed that the generalized Pareto distribution was not a good distribution for estimating very low annual exceedance probabilities. The Escalante River analysis showed that adding paleoflood information might increase uncertainty for very low annual exceedance probabilities, compared to analysis with the systematic period of record information only, when the paleoflood peaks are of much larger magnitudes than the systematic record.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Effects of urbanization on floods in the Dallas, Texas metropolitan area

The effects of urbanization on flood characteristics of streams in the Dallas metropolitan area were studied by use of a digital model of the hydrologic system. The model was calibrated by using observed rainfall and runoff data from 19 storms in six basins having various degrees of urbanization. The calibrated models were used with a 57- year rainfall record to simulate 57-year records of annual peak discharges in 14 basins. The flood-frequency characteristics were defined by fitting the simulated 57-year records to log-Pearson Type III distributions. Regional peak-discharge equations, which can be used to determine the maximum rates of discharge that could be expected to be equaled or exceeded on the average of once in 1.25, 2, 5, 10, 25, and 100 years, were derived from multiple-regression analyses. The relationships among flood frequency, drainage area, and a coefficient of impervious area are given in a nomograph. The analyses indicate that in a fully-developed residential area, the flood peaks will be 1.2 to 1.4 times those from an undeveloped area; and the annual direct runoff will be about double that from an undeveloped area. Data were not sufficient to determine the increase in runoff from a highly industrialized area where the effective imperviousness approaches 100 percent.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

A method for estimating mean and low flows of streams in national forests of Montana

Equations were developed for estimating mean annual discharge, 80-percent exceedance discharge, and 95-percent exceedance discharge for streams on national forest lands in Montana. The equations for mean annual discharge used active-channel width, drainage area and mean annual precipitation as independent variables, with active-channel width being most significant. The equations for 80-percent exceedance discharge and 95-percent exceedance discharge used only active-channel width as an independent variable. The standard error or estimate for the best equation for estimating mean annual discharge was 27 percent. The standard errors of estimate for the equations were 67 percent for estimating 80-percent exceedance discharge and 75 percent for estimating 95-percent exceedance discharge. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Helium-carbon systematics of groundwaters in the Lassen Peak Region

Carbon dioxide emissions from active subaerial volcanoes represent 20–50% of the annual global volcanic CO 2 flux (Barry et al., 2014). Passive degassing of carbon from the flanks of volcanoes, and the associated accumulation of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) within nearby groundwater, also represents a potentially important, yet poorly constrained flux of carbon to the surface (Werner et al., 2019). Here we investigate sources and sinks of DIC in groundwaters in the Lassen Peak region of California. Specifically, we report and interpret the relative abundance and isotopic composition of helium ( 3 He, 4 He) and carbon ( 12 C, 13 C, 14 C) in 37 groundwater samples, from 24 distinct wells, collected between 20 and 60 km from Lassen Peak. Measured groundwater samples have air-corrected 3 He/ 4 He values between 0.19 and 7.44 R A (where R A = air 3 He/ 4 He = 1.39 × 10 −6 ), all in excess of the radiogenic production value (~0.05 R A ), indicating pervasive mantle-derived helium additions to the groundwater system in the Lassen Peak region. Stable carbon isotope ratios of DIC (δ 13 C) vary between −12.6 and − 27.7‰ (vs. VPDB). Measured groundwater DIC/ 3 He values fall in the range of 2.2 × 10 10 to 1.1 × 10 12 . Using helium and carbon isotope data, we explore several conceptual models to estimate surface carbon contributions and to differentiate between DIC derived from soil CO 2 versus DIC derived from external (slab and mantle) carbon sources. Specifically, if we use 14 C to identify soil-derived DIC (assuming decadal-to-centennial groundwater ages and a soil CO 2 14 C activity equal to that of the atmosphere), we calculate that a hypothetical external carbon source would have an apparent δ 13 C signature between −10.3 and − 59.3‰ (vs. Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite (VPDB)) and an apparent C/ 3 He between 7.0 × 10 9 and 1.0 × 10 12 . These apparent δ 13 C and C/ 3 He values are substantially isotopically lighter than and greater than canonical MORB values, respectively. We suggest that >95% of any external (non-soil-derived) DIC in groundwater must thus be non-mantle in origin (i.e., slab derived or assimilated organic carbon). We further investigate possible sources of external DIC to groundwater using two idealized conceptual approaches: a pure (unfractionated) source mixing model (after Sano and Marty, 1995) and a scenario that invokes fractionation due to calcite precipitation. Because the former model requires carbon contributions from an organic source component with unrealistically low δ 13 C (~ − 60‰), we suggest that the second scenario is more plausible. Importantly, however, we caution that all conceptual models are dependent on assumptions about initial 14 C activity. Thus, we cannot rule out the possibility that the true fraction of non-surface-derived DIC in these samples is lower or negligible, despite the pervasive mantle-derived He isotope signatures throughout the region. Following the 14 C approach to deconvolving sources of DIC, we determine that the maximum passive carbon flux could be up to ~2.2 × 10 6 kg/yr, which is lower than previous magmatic carbon flux estimates from the Lassen region (Rose and Davisson, 1996). We find that the passive dissolved carbon flux could represent a maximum of ~4–18% of the total Lassen geothermal CO 2 degassing flux (estimated to be ~3.5 × 10 7 kg/yr Rose and Davisson, 1996; Gerlach et al., 2008), which is still more than an order of magnitude smaller than soil gas CO 2 flux estimates (7.3–11 × 10 7 kg/yr) for nearby volcanoes (Sorey et al., 1998; Gerlach et al., 1999; Evans et al., 2002; Werner et al., 2014 ). We conclude that passive dissolved carbon fluxes should be combined with geothermal fluxes and soil gas fluxes to obtain a complete picture of volcanic carbon emissions globally. Our approach highlights the utility of measuring helium isotopes in concert with the full suite of noble gas abundances, tritium, δ 13 C and 14 C, which when interpreted together can be used to better elucidate the various sources of DIC in groundwater.

California↗

Hydrologic and water-quality characteristics for Bear Creek near Silver Hill, Arkansas, and selected Buffalo River sites, 1999-2004

The purpose of this report is to describe and compare the hydrologic and water-quality characteristics of Bear Creek near Silver Hill, Arkansas, to two sites on the Buffalo River upstream from the confluence of Bear Creek, to a site on Calf Creek, a smaller tributary to the Buffalo River, to selected undeveloped sites across the Nation, and to a developed site in Arkansas. A better understanding of the hydrology and water quality of Bear Creek is of interest to many, including the National Park Service, which administers the Buffalo National River, to evaluate its effects on the hydrology and water quality of the Buffalo River. The streamflow at Bear Creek near Silver Hill varied seasonally and annually from January 1999 to March 2004. The mean annual streamflow at Bear Creek for calendar years 1999 to 2003 was 86.0 cubic feet per second. The highest annual mean streamflow occurred in 2002 (158 cubic feet per second) and the lowest annual mean streamflow occurred in 1999 (56.4 cubic feet per second). The mean annual streamflow for calendar years 1999 to 2003 at the Buffalo River near Boxley and Buffalo River near St. Joe was 102 and 881 cubic feet per second, respectively. Concentrations of nitrogen measured for Bear Creek generally were greater than concentrations measured at the two Buffalo River sites and were similar to concentrations measured at Calf Creek. Concentrations of phosphorus measured at Bear Creek generally were greater than concentrations measured at the two Buffalo River sites and were similar to concentrations measured at Calf Creek. Fecal indicator bacteria concentrations generally were greater at Bear Creek than concentrations measured at the Buffalo River and similar to concentrations at Calf Creek. Bear Creek had significantly greater suspended-sediment concentrations than the Buffalo River near Boxley and the Buffalo River near St. Joe and similar concentrations to Calf Creek. Nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, and suspended-sediment loads at Bear Creek and two Buffalo River sites varied because of differences in land use and contributing drainage area for each site. In general, the Buffalo River near St. Joe had the greatest annual loads of nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, and suspended sediment. The Buffalo River near Boxley had the least annual nutrient and suspended-sediment loads amongthe three sites. Buffalo River near Boxley had lesser annual loads than the other two sites probably because of the higher percentage of forested land in the basin and smaller contributing drainage area. Mean annual nutrient, dissolved organic carbon, and suspended- sediment yields computed for Bear Creek were greater than yields computed for both of the Buffalo River sites. Bear Creek had greater median annual nutrient yields than selected undeveloped basins across the Nation and less median annual nutrient yields than the Illinois River south of Siloam Springs, Arkansas, which is representative of a developed basin. Bear Creek had greater median annual flow-weighted nutrient concentrations than the Buffalo River near St. Joe, the Buffalo River near Boxley, and selected undeveloped sites across the Nation. Bear Creek had less median flow-weighted nutrient concentrations than the Illinois River.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Trends in base flow, total flow, and base-flow index of selected streams in and near Oklahoma through 2008

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, investigated trends in base flow, total flow, and base-flow index of selected streams in Oklahoma and evaluated possible causes for trends. Thirty-seven streamflow-gaging stations that had unregulated or moderately regulated streamflow were selected for trend analysis. Statistical evaluation of trends in annual and seasonal (winter-spring and summer-autumn) base flow, total flow, and base-flow index at 37 selected streamflow-gaging stations in Oklahoma was performed by using a Kendall's tau trend test. This trend analysis also was performed for annual and seasonal precipitation for nine climate divisions in the study area, annual peak flows, the number of days where flow was zero or less than 1 cubic foot per second (both annually and seasonally), and annual winter groundwater levels for 35 shallow wells near the analyzed stations. Precipitation-adjusted trends using LOESS regressions and Kendall's tau were computed for annual and seasonal base-flow and total-flow volumes in order to identify the presence of underlying trends in streamflow that are not associated with annual or seasonal variations in precipitation. In general, upward trends in precipitation were detected for climate divisions in north-central Oklahoma and south-central and southeastern Kansas. More climate divisions had statistically significant upward trends in total precipitation for annual water years than in winter-spring or summer-autumn water years. Significant trends in annual or seasonal base-flow volume were detected for 22 stations, 19 of which had trends that were upward in direction. Significant trends in annual or seasonal total-flow volume were detected for 14 stations, 9 of which had trends that were upward in direction. Most stations that had significant upward trends in annual or seasonal total-flow volume also had significant upward trends in base-flow volume for the same period. Precipitation adjustment changed the results (significant only or significance and direction) of significant annual or seasonal trends in unadjusted base-flow volume for 12 stations and in unadjusted total-flow volume for 13 stations. Significant trends in annual or seasonal base-flow index were detected for 25 stations, 23 of which had trends that were upward in direction. Eighteen stations that had significant upward trends in annual or seasonal base-flow index also had significant upward trends in base-flow volume and no significant downward trends in total-flow volume during the same period, which indicated that upward trends in base-flow index were likely driven by increases in base flow at these stations. Trend results were highly variable throughout the State. However, some recurring patterns in locations of stations with similar trend results were detected. In general, significant downward trends in base-flow and total-flow volumes were detected for the three stations in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Significant upward trends in annual or seasonal base-flow volume before and after precipitation adjustment were detected for 12 stations in southwestern and central Oklahoma. In eastern Oklahoma, significant upward trends in annual or seasonal base-flow volume were only detected for 4 stations, and significant upward trends in annual or seasonal total-flow volume were only detected for 1 station. After precipitation adjustment no stations in this region had significant upward trends in either parameter, one station had significant downward trends in annual base-flow volume, and one station had significant downward trends in winter-spring total-flow volume. Increases in annual and seasonal precipitation, especially during a substantial wet period (1980-2000), may be one of the factors resulting in upward trends in base-flow volume and total-flow volume at many of the stations analyzed in this report. Eleven stations with significant upward trends in precipitation-adjust

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Long lives, short futures: Freshwater turtle and tortoise imports to the United States highlight global trade and conservation challenges

Global trade of freshwater turtles and tortoises presents substantial conservation, biosecurity, and regulatory challenges, particularly for long-lived species that are already highly imperiled. While the United States has historically played a key role in supplying the international chelonian trade, investigations into its role as an importer remain limited. We used import data from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Law Enforcement Management Information System (LEMIS) between 2000 and 2022 to evaluate the trade of freshwater turtles and tortoises. Over 2.5 million individuals were imported into the United States during this period, comprising 172 species that are likely imported for the pet trade, food, and traditional medicine markets. Reported annual imports for freshwater turtles increased until approximately 2013 and decreased thereafter, whereas reported annual imports for tortoises have remained relatively constant. Two species, Chinese softshell turtles ( Pelodiscus sinensis ) and Horsfield's tortoises ( Testudo horsfieldii ) represent 62.9% of all imports. Imported species were largely classified as Vulnerable, Endangered, or Critically Endangered by the IUCN Red List, yet the conservation status of a concerning number of species ( n = 45; 26.2%) has not been evaluated. Many imports appear to be sourced from wild populations (28.3% of freshwater turtles, 71.3% of tortoises); however, captive-sourced imports increased significantly over time across both groups. Import volumes raise concerns regarding the sustainability of freshwater turtle and tortoise trade, the potential for invasive species establishment, and disease spread. Our results highlight the need for updated IUCN assessments, verification of trade records, and strengthening of biosecurity screening at U.S. ports of entry.

Biological Conservation↗

Method for Estimating Annual Atrazine Use for Counties in the Conterminous United States, 1992-2007

A method was developed to estimate annual atrazine use during 1992 to 2007 on sixteen crops and four agricultural land uses. For each year, atrazine use was estimated for all counties in the conterminous United States (except California) by combining (1) proprietary data from the Doane Marketing Research-Kynetec (DMRK) AgroTrak database on the mass of atrazine applied to agricultural crops, (2) county harvested crop acreage, by county, from the 1992, 1997, 2002, and 2007 Censuses of Agriculture, and (3) annual harvested crop acreage from National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) for non-Census years. DMRK estimates of pesticide use on individual crops were derived from surveys of major field crops and selected specialty crops in multicounty areas referred to as Crop Reporting Districts (CRD). The CRD-level atrazine-use estimates were disaggregated to obtain county-level application rates by dividing the mass (pounds) of pesticides applied to a crop by the acreage of that crop in the CRD to yield a rate per harvested acre. When atrazine-use estimates were not available for a CRD, crop, or year, an estimated rate was developed following a hierarchy of decision rules that checked first for the availability of a crop application rate from surveyed atrazine application rate(s) for adjacent CRDs for a specific year, and second, the rates from surveyed CRDs within for U.S. Department of Agriculture Farm Production Regions for a specific year or multiple years. The estimation method applied linear interpolation to estimate crop acreage for years when harvested acres for a crop and county were not reported in either the Census of Agriculture or the NASS database, but were reported by these data sources for other years for that crop and county. Data for atrazine use for the counties in California was obtained from farmers' reports of pesticide use collected and published by the California Department of Pesticide Regulation-Pesticide Use Reporting (DPR-PUR) because these data are more complete than DMRK survey data. National and state annual atrazine-use totals derived by this method were compared with other published pesticide-use estimates and were highly correlated. The method developed is designed to be applicable to other pesticides for which there are similar data; however, for some pesticides that are applied to specialty crops, fewer surveys are usually available to estimate application rates and there are a greater number of years with unreported crop acreage, potentially resulting in greater uncertainty in use

Scientific Investigations Report↗