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USGS1996

Simulation of water available for runoff in clearcut forest openings during rain-on-snow events in the western Cascade Range of Oregon and Washington

Rain-on-snow events are common on mountain slopes within the transient-snow zone of the Pacific Northwest. These events make more water available for runoff than does precipitation alone by melting the snowpack and by adding a small amount of condensate to the snowpack. In forest openings (such as those resulting from clearcut logging), the amount of snow that accumulates and the turbulent- energy input to the snowpack are greater than below forest stands. Both factors are believed to contribute to a greater amount of water available for runoff during rain-on-snow events in forest openings than forest stands. Because increased water available for runoff may lead to increased downstream flooding and erosion, knowledge of the amount of snowmelt that can occur during rain on snow and the processes that control snowmelt in forest openings is useful when making land-use decisions. Snow accumulation and melt were simulated for clearcut conditions only, using an enery- balance approach that accounts for the most important energy and mass exchanges between a snowpack and its environment. Meteorological measurements provided the input for the simulations. Snow accumulation and melt were not simulated in forest stands because interception of precipitation processes are too complex to simulate with a numerical model without making simplifying assumptions. Such a model, however, would need to be extensively tested against representative observations, which were not available for this study. Snowmelt simulated during three rain-on-snow events (measured in a previous study in a clearcut in the transient-snow zone of the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in Oregon) demonstrated that melt generation is most sensitive to turbulent- energy exchanges between the air and the snowpack surface. As a result, the most important climate variable that controls snowmelt is wind speed. Air temperature, however, is a significant variable also. The wind speeds were light, with a maximum of 3.3 meters per second during one event and average wind speeds for all three events ranging from 1.7 to 2.1 meters per second. For observed and estimated conditions, the average simulated snowmelt ranged from 0.2 to 0.8 millimeter liquid water per hour, and turbulent-energy exchange provided 51 percent of the energy that led to snowmelt during the largest of the three rain-on-snow events. When wind speeds were multiplied by a factor of 4, the simulated snowmelt ranged from 1.0 to 2.5 millimeters per hour. Similarly, when wind speeds were multiplied by a factor of 6, the simulated snowmelt ranged from 1.6 to 3.7 millimeters per hour. Turbulent-energy exchange provided a dominant 88 and 92 percent of the energy input to the snowpack during the largest rain-on-snow event when average wind speeds were multiplied by factors of 4 and 6, respectively. During the same event, the contribution to melt by the sum of net solar and net thermal radiation (net all-wave radiation) was roughly equal to the contribution of sensible energy carried by the precipitation itself (advective heat). Estimates of snowmelt resulting from rain on snow for climate conditions other than those observed and estimated in the simulated plot-scale data were expanded by simulating snowmelt for 24-hour presumed rain-on-snow events extracted from the reconstructed, long-term historical climate records for Cedar Lake and Snoqualmie Pass National Weather Service stations in Washington State. The selected events exceeded 75 millimeters of precipitation in 24 hours. When clearcut conditions were assumed to be identical to those at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest site and a ripe snowpack that never completely melted was assumed to be available, simulated 24-hour snowmelt ranged from 4.2 to 47.0 millimeters (0.2 to 2.0 millimeters per hour) for low wind speeds (1.5 meters per second) and from 10.3 to 178.8 millimeters (0.4 to 7.5 millimeters per hour) for high wind speeds (8.2 meters per second). The ranges in

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2016

Northern long-eared bat day-roosting and prescribed fire in the central Appalachians

The northern long-eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis Trovessart) is a cavity-roosting species that forages in cluttered upland and riparian forests throughout the oak-dominated Appalachian and Central Hardwoods regions. Common prior to white-nose syndrome, the population of this bat species has declined to functional extirpation in some regions in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, including portions of the central Appalachians. Our long-term research in the central Appalachians has shown that maternity colonies of this species form non-random assorting networks in patches of suitable trees that result from long- and short-term forest disturbance processes, and that roost loss can occur with these disturbances. Following two consecutive prescribed burns on the Fernow Experimental Forest in the central Appalachians, West Virginia, USA, in 2007 to 2008, post-fire counts of suitable black locust ( Robinia pseudoacacia L.; the most selected species for roosting) slightly decreased by 2012. Conversely, post-fire numbers of suitable maple ( Acer spp. L.), primarily red maple ( Acer rubrum L.), increased by a factor of three, thereby ameliorating black locust reduction. Maternity colony network metrics such as roost degree (use) and network density for two networks in the burned compartment were similar to the single network observed in unburned forest. However, roost clustering and degree of roost centralization was greater for the networks in the burned forest area. Accordingly, the short-term effects of prescribed fire are slightly or moderately positive in impact to day-roost habitat for the northern long-eared bat in the central Appalachians from a social dynamic perspective. Listing of northern long-eared bats as federally threatened will bring increased scrutiny of immediate fire impacts from direct take as well as indirect impacts from long-term changes to roosting and foraging habitat in stands being returned to historic fire-return conditions. Unfortunately, definitive impacts will remain speculative owing to the species’ current rarity and the paucity of forest stand data that considers tree condition or that adequately tracks snags spatially and temporally.

Appalachian Mountains↗

USGS2020

Arsenic-related oxidative stress in experimentally dosed wild great tit nestlings

Arsenic (As) is broadly distributed due to natural and anthropogenic sources, and it may cause adverse effects in birds. However, research on other elements (Pb, Hg and Cd) has been prioritized, resulting in scarce data on As exposure and related effects in wild birds. One of the mechanisms responsible for As toxicity is oxidative stress. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate if environmentally relevant As levels affected oxidative stress biomarkers in great tits ( Parus major ). This is the first field experiment studying the effects of As on oxidative stress in wild passerines. Wild great tit nestlings were orally dosed with sodium arsenite (Control: water, Low dose: 0.2 μg g −1 d −1 and High dose: 1 μg g −1 d −1 ; from day 3 to day 13 post-hatching). We intended to reach As concentrations similar to those at which passerines are exposed to at actual polluted areas. We compared the responses to the experimental manipulations (High, Low and Control groups) with those in an As/metal-exposed population breeding close to a Cu–Ni smelter in Finland (Smelter group). A set of antioxidants (tGSH, GSH:GSSG ratio, CAT, SOD, GST and GPx), and oxidative damage biomarkers (lipid peroxidation, protein carbonylation, 8-hydroxy-2′-deoxyguanosine formation in DNA, and telomere length) were explored in blood. Arsenic administration had no significant effect on most of the biomarkers measured: only the CAT activity was lower in the High As group and the GPx activity was enhanced in the Smelter group compared to the Control. Our results suggest that the dose and duration of the As exposure was not enough to induce oxidative damage in red cells of great tit nestlings. In spite of this, nestlings dosed with 1 μg g −1 d −1 of sodium arsenite showed non-significantly higher oxidative stress biomarkers than controls, suggesting that we were close to an effect level for the redox-defense system. Oxidative effects at equivalent As levels combined with other stressors cannot be dismissed.

Harjavalta↗

USGS2008

Effects of food limitation and emigration on self-thinning in experimental minnow cohorts

1. &ensp;The theory of food-regulated self-thinning (FST) for mobile animals predicts population density ( N ) to be an inverse function of mean body mass ( W ) scaled to an exponent ( b ), such that N = k W −b , where k is a constant. FST also predicts energy requirements (or energy flow) to remain constant over time (termed energetic equivalence) as losses to cohorts (e.g. emigration and mortality) are balanced by increased growth of surviving individuals. 2. &ensp;To test these predictions, we analysed the dynamics of six experimental minnow cohorts. Replicate populations of fish were held under identical conditions with a constant and limited supply of food over a 126-day period. Half of the cohorts were open to emigration, and half were closed so that fish could only be lost through starvation mortality. 3. &ensp;Patterns of self-thinning indicated non-linear changes in population density and energy flow in relation to changes in mean body mass and time, respectively. Non-linear patterns of self-thinning were probably due to a delayed growth response to changes in population density effected through mortality and/or emigration. Contrary to results of similar experiments on other fish, emigration did not have a significant influence on the pattern of self-thinning. 4. &ensp;These results may be attributed to trophic interactions within cohorts and the importance of social behaviour to cohort dynamics. Both population density and energy flow in our experimental populations appeared to cycle, with episodes of starvation and mortality alternating with food recovery and weight gain, as predicted by recent models of stepwise die-off and stunted growth in animal cohorts. 5. &ensp;Most of the support for FST in mobile animals comes from observational data on mean body mass and population density. Potentially important mechanisms, including the manner in which individuals are lost or retained in populations, are usually not investigated directly. Such tests of FST can only provide equivocal support. Detailed observational study and controlled experiments are needed to understand casual mechanisms.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2023

Do seeding and seedling planting result in similar restored plant communities?

Aims Restoration practitioners often face a tradeoff between low cost but risky seeding vs expensive but more reliable seedling planting to meet revegetation goals. Knowing under what environmental and management conditions direct seeding vs seedling planting benefit different species could improve restoration practice. Methods We compared seed emergence to planted-seedling survival among perennial herbaceous species commonly used in restoration across eight experimental restoration sites on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We used linear models to assess relationships between emergence and survival among species, and to assess the effects of site climate and seeding pre-treatments on those relationships. Results We found that among species, emergence was positively correlated with survival in the cooler sites, meaning that species with high emergence also had high survival and vice versa, but had no relationship in the hottest sites. Furthermore, pre-treatments to enhance soil moisture in seeded plots, specifically microtopography (pits) and mulch, also resulted in positive relationships between emergence and survival among species, while seeding without additional soil pre-treatments did not. Seedling planting cost 14 times as much as direct seeding alone, dropping to nine times as much when pre-treatments were combined with seeding. Conclusions Taken together, these results suggest that investments in seedling planting at hotter dryland sites, or in creating microtopography or mulching prior to seeding across sites, are likely to promote establishment success compared to simple seeding methods in degraded dryland ecosystems. These findings also identify opportunities for hybrid seeding and planting approaches that balance tradeoffs between risk and cost, respectively.

Applied Vegetation Science↗

USGS2016

Contact heterogeneities in feral swine: implications for disease management and future research

Contact rates vary widely among individuals in socially structured wildlife populations. Understanding the interplay of factors responsible for this variation is essential for planning effective disease management. Feral swine ( Sus scrofa ) are a socially structured species which pose an increasing threat to livestock and human health, and little is known about contact structure. We analyzed 11 GPS data sets from across the United States to understand the interplay of ecological and demographic factors on variation in co-location rates, a proxy for contact rates. Between-sounder contact rates strongly depended on the distance among home ranges (less contact among sounders separated by >2 km; negligible between sounders separated by >6 km), but other factors causing high clustering between groups of sounders also seemed apparent. Our results provide spatial parameters for targeted management actions, identify data gaps that could lead to improved management and provide insight on experimental design for quantitating contact rates and structure.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2001

Managing birds and controlling aircraft in the Kennedy Airport-Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge complex: The need for hard data and soft opinions

During the 1980s, the exponential growth of laughing gull ( Larus atricilla ) colonies, from 15 to about 7600 nests in 1990, in the Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge and a correlated increase in the bird-strike rate at nearby John F. Kennedy International Airport (New York City) led to a controversy between wildlife and airport managers over the elimination of the colonies. In this paper, we review data to evaluate if: (1) the colonies have increased the level of risk to the flying public; (2) on-colony population control would reduce the presence of gulls, and subsequently bird strikes, at the airport; and (3) all on-airport management alternatives have been adequately implemented. Since 1979, most (2987, 87%) of the 3444 bird strikes (number of aircraft struck) were actually bird carcasses found near runways (cause of death unknown but assumed to be bird strikes by definition). Of the 457 pilot-reported strikes (mean = 23 ± 6 aircraft/yr, N = 20 years), 78 (17%) involved laughing gulls. Since a gull-shooting program was initiated on airport property in 1991, over 50,000 adult laughing gulls have been killed and the number of reported bird strikes involving laughing gulls has declined from 6.9 ± 2.9 (1983–1990) to 2.6 ± 1.3 (1991–1998) aircraft/yr; nongull reported bird strikes, however, have more than doubled (6.4 ± 2.6, 1983–1990; 14.9 ± 5.1, 1991–1998). We found no evidence to indicate that on-colony management would yield a reduction of bird strikes at Kennedy Airport. Dietary and mark–recapture studies suggest that 60%–90% of the laughing gulls collected on-airport were either failed breeders and/or nonbreeding birds. We argue that the Jamaica Bay laughing gull colonies, the only ones in New York State, should not be managed at least until all on-airport management alternatives have been properly implemented and demonstrated to be ineffective at reducing bird strikes, including habitat alterations and increasing the capability of the bird control unit to eliminate bird flocks on-airport using nonlethal bird dispersal techniques. Because the gull-shooting program may be resulting in a nonsustainable regional population of laughing gulls (>30% decline), we also recommend that attempts be made to initiate an experimental colony elsewhere on Long Island to determine if colony relocation is a feasible management option.

New York↗

USGS2019

Towards common ground in the biodiversity–disease debate

The disease ecology community has struggled to come to consensus on whether biodiversity reduces or increases infectious disease risk, a question that directly affects policy decisions for biodiversity conservation and public health. Here, we summarize the primary points of contention regarding biodiversity–disease relationships and suggest that vector-borne, generalist wildlife and zoonotic pathogens are the types of parasites most likely to be affected by changes to biodiversity. One synthesis on this topic revealed a positive correlation between biodiversity and human disease burden across countries, but as biodiversity changed over time within these countries, this correlation became weaker and more variable. Another synthesis—a meta-analysis of generally smaller-scale experimental and field studies—revealed a negative correlation between biodiversity and infectious diseases (a dilution effect) in various host taxa. These results raise the question of whether biodiversity–disease relationships are more negative at smaller spatial scales. If so, biodiversity conservation at the appropriate scales might prevent wildlife and zoonotic diseases from increasing in prevalence or becoming problematic (general proactive approaches). Further, protecting natural areas from human incursion should reduce zoonotic disease spillover. By contrast, for some infectious diseases, managing particular species or habitats and targeted biomedical approaches (targeted reactive approaches) might outperform biodiversity conservation as a tool for disease control. Importantly, biodiversity conservation and management need to be considered alongside other disease management options. These suggested guiding principles should provide common ground that can enhance scientific and policy clarity for those interested in simultaneously improving wildlife and human health.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗

USGS2017

Detection of diazotrophy in the acetylene-fermenting anaerobe Pelobacter sp. strain SFB93

Acetylene (C2H2) is a trace constituent of the present Earth's oxidizing atmosphere, reflecting a mixture of terrestrial and marine emissions from anthropogenic, biomass-burning, and unidentified biogenic sources. Fermentation of acetylene was serendipitously discovered during C2H2 block assays of N2O reductase, and Pelobacter acetylenicus was shown to grow on C2H2 via acetylene hydratase (AH). AH is a W-containing, catabolic, low-redox-potential enzyme that, unlike nitrogenase (N2ase), is specific for acetylene. Acetylene fermentation is a rare metabolic process that is well characterized only in P. acetylenicus DSM3246 and DSM3247 and Pelobacter sp. strain SFB93. To better understand the genetic controls for AH activity, we sequenced the genomes of the three acetylene-fermenting Pelobacter strains. Genome assembly and annotation produced three novel genomes containing gene sequences for AH, with two copies being present in SFB93. In addition, gene sequences for all five compulsory genes for iron-molybdenum N2ase were also present in the three genomes, indicating the cooccurrence of two acetylene transformation pathways. Nitrogen fixation growth assays showed that DSM3426 could ferment acetylene in the absence of ammonium, but no ethylene was produced. However, SFB93 degraded acetylene and, in the absence of ammonium, produced ethylene, indicating an active N2ase. Diazotrophic growth was observed under N2 but not in experimental controls incubated under argon. SFB93 exhibits acetylene fermentation and nitrogen fixation, the only known biochemical mechanisms for acetylene transformation. Our results indicate complex interactions between N2ase and AH and suggest novel evolutionary pathways for these relic enzymes from early Earth to modern days.

Applied and Environmental Microbiology↗

USGS2023

Drought related changes in water quality surpass effects of experimental flows on trout growth downstream of Lake Powell reservoir

Flows released from reservoirs are often modified to mitigate the negative ecosystem effects of dams. We estimated the effects of two experimental flows, fall-timed floods and elimination of sub-daily variation in flows on weekends, on growth rates of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam. Experimental flow effects were compared to effects of water temperature, phosphorous concentration, solar insolation, and competition, by fitting mixed effect von Bertalanffy models to ~ 10,000 observations of growth from mark-recapture between 2012 and 2021. There was strong support for models predicting faster growth during intervals with higher solar insolation, and lower water temperature and competition for prey. Effects of phosphorus and experimental flows were small and uncertain. Drought-related increases in dam release temperatures during summer and fall were predicted to result in severe weight loss for larger trout and could eventually threaten the viability of the population and the fishery it supports. The effects of water temperature and competition on fish growth substantially exceeded the effects of controlled floods and steadier flows.

Arizona, Utah↗

USGS2011

DDT, DDD, and DDE in birds

This chapter summarizes residue levels of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), DDD, and DDE three compounds in birds that are diagnostic for or are associated with mortality and important sublethal effects and suggests improvements in design of contemporary field studies that will result in maximum usefulness in interpreting residue data. Heath et al. first documented eggshell thinning and associated lowered reproductive success of experimental birds on DDE diets. Although there were several studies of eggshell thinning of birds that were given diets containing technical DDT, most did not list residues in eggs, and DDE-not DDT-comprises most of dietary exposure of wild birds with significant eggshell thinning. Although DDE was responsible for most reproductive failure in birds, very high levels of DDT in ring-necked pheasant eggs in California may have caused reproductive problems, such as crippling and mortality of young. Residues in tissues, particularly brain, have proven to be diagnostic of lethality in animals on dietary dosages of DDT, DDD, and DDE in experiments.

Book chapter↗

USGS1983

Resistance of salmonids to Aeromonas salmonicida: Relation between agglutinins and neutralizing activities

Serum of furunculosis‐resistant rainbow trout Salmo gairdneri, when injected into brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis, increased resistance of the brook trout to virulent challenges of Aeromonas salmonicida, the furunculosis pathogen. Serum from susceptible Atlantic salmon Salmo salar did not confer passive resistance on brook trout although natural agglutinin titers in Atlantic salmon serum were equal to those in rainbow trout. Further analyses indicated that rainbow trout serum neutralized toxic components produced by A. salmonicida, but that Atlantic salmon serum did not. When 11 strains of rainbow trout were challenged with 10 9 virulent cells of A. salmonicida, a range of mortality from 0 to 83% resulted. Although no correlation was observed between the natural serum agglutinin level of a particular strain and its relative resistance to experimental pathogen challenge, an inverse relation was apparent between cytotoxic serum‐neutralization activity and resistance to furunculosis.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2015

Realized detection and capture probabilities for giant gartersnakes ( Thamnophis gigas ) using modified floating aquatic funnel traps

Executive Summary Rigorous analysis and management of animal populations requires that observers account for limitations inherent to the detection of those populations and the individuals within them. Researchers are usually unable to see every individual of a population or to even detect some entire populations. Ignoring this imperfect detectability can bias estimates of population characteristics, such as probability of occurrence, abundance, survival, recruitment, and population growth rate. Furthermore, the precision with which these population characteristics are estimated is dependent on detection probabilities (the probability that at least one individual of a species is detected during a survey, given that the species occurs where the survey is conducted) and capture probabilities (the probability that a given individual is observed or captured during a single survey); greater detection and capture probabilities result in less uncertainty about the values of population characteristics and a greater ability to evaluate the effects of variables or experimental treatments on the population characteristic(s) of interest. Detection and capture probabilities for giant gartersnakes ( Thamnophis gigas ) are very low, and successfully evaluating the effects of variables or experimental treatments on giant gartersnake populations will require greater detection and capture probabilities than those that had been achieved with standard trap designs. Previous research identified important trap modifications that can increase the probability of snakes entering traps and help prevent the escape of captured snakes. The purpose of this study was to quantify detection and capture probabilities obtained using the most successful modification to commercially available traps to date (2015), and examine the ability of realized detection and capture probabilities to achieve benchmark levels of precision in occupancy and capture-mark-recapture studies.

California↗

USGS2017

Test of a non-physical barrier consisting of light, sound, and bubble screen to block upstream movement of sea lamprey in an experimental raceway

Control of the invasive Sea Lamprey Petromyzon marinus is critical for management of commercial and recreational fisheries in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Use of physical barriers to block Sea Lampreys from spawning habitat is a major component of the control program. However, the resulting interruption of natural streamflow and blockage of nontarget species present substantial challenges. Development of an effective nonphysical barrier would aid the control of Sea Lampreys by eliminating their access to spawning locations while maintaining natural streamflow. We tested the effect of a nonphysical barrier consisting of strobe lights, low-frequency sound, and a bubble screen on the movement of Sea Lampreys in an experimental raceway designed as a two-choice maze with a single main channel fed by two identical inflow channels (one control and one blocked). Sea Lampreys were more likely to move upstream during trials when the strobe light and low-frequency sound were active compared with control trials and trials using the bubble screen alone. For those Sea Lampreys that did move upstream to the confluence of inflow channels, no combination of stimuli or any individual stimulus significantly influenced the likelihood that Sea Lampreys would enter the blocked inflow channel, enter the control channel, or return downstream.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2002

Rare earth element variations resulting from inversion of pigeonite and subsolidus reequilibration in lunar ferroan anorthosites

We present results of a secondary ion mass spectrometry study of the rare earth elements (REEs) in the minerals of two samples of lunar ferroan anorthosite, and the results are applicable to studies of REEs in all igneous rocks, no matter what their planet of origin. Our pyroxene analyses are used to determine solid-solid REE distribution coefficients (D = C REE in low-Ca pyroxene/C REE in augite) in orthopyroxene-augite pairs derived by inversion of pigeonite. Our data and predictions from crystal-chemical considerations indicate that as primary pigeonite inverts to orthopyroxene plus augite and subsolidus reequilibration proceeds, the solid-solid Ds for orthopyroxene-augite pairs progressively decrease for all REEs; the decrease is greatest for the LREEs. The REE pattern of solid-solid Ds for inversion-derived pyroxene pairs is close to a straight line for Sm-Lu and turns upward for REEs lighter than Sm; the shape of this pattern is predicted by the shapes of the REE patterns for the individual minerals. Equilibrium liquids calculated for one sample from the compositions of primary phases, using measured or experimentally determined solid-liquid Ds, have chondrite-normalized REE patterns that are very slightly enriched in LREEs. The plagioclase equilibrium liquid is overall less rich in REEs than pyroxene equilibrium liquids, and the discrepancy probably arises because the calculated plagioclase equilibrium liquid represents a liquid earlier in the fractionationsequence than the pyroxene equilibrium liquids. “Equilibrium” liquids calculated from the compositions of inversion-derived pyroxenes or orthopyroxene derived by reaction of olivine are LREE depleted (in some cases substantially) in comparison with equilibrium liquids calculated from the compositions of primary phases. These discrepancies arise because the inversion-derived and reaction-derived pyroxenes did not crystallize directly from liquid, and the use of solid-liquid Ds is inappropriate. The LREE depletion of the calculated liquids is a relic of formation of these phases from primary LREE-depleted minerals. Thus, if one attempts to calculate the compositions of equilibrium liquids from pyroxene compositions, it is important to establish that the pyroxenes are primary. In addition, our data suggest that experimental studies have underestimated solid-liquid Ds for REEs in pigeonite and that REE contents of liquids calculated using these Ds are overestimates. Our results have implications for Sm-Nd age studies. Our work shows that if pigeonite inversion and/or subsolidus reequilibration between augite and orthopyroxene occurred significantly after crystallization, and if pyroxene separates isolated for Sm-Nd studies do not have the bulk composition of the primary pyroxenes, then the Sm-Nd isochron age and ε Nd will be in error.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

USGS2013

Effects of error covariance structure on estimation of model averaging weights and predictive performance

When conducting model averaging for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty, the averaging weights are often evaluated using model selection criteria such as AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC (Akaike Information Criterion, Corrected Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Kashyap Information Criterion, respectively). However, this method often leads to an unrealistic situation in which the best model receives overwhelmingly large averaging weight (close to 100%), which cannot be justified by available data and knowledge. It was found in this study that this problem was caused by using the covariance matrix, C E , of measurement errors for estimating the negative log likelihood function common to all the model selection criteria. This problem can be resolved by using the covariance matrix, C ek , of total errors (including model errors and measurement errors) to account for the correlation between the total errors. An iterative two-stage method was developed in the context of maximum likelihood inverse modeling to iteratively infer the unknown C ek from the residuals during model calibration. The inferred C ek was then used in the evaluation of model selection criteria and model averaging weights. While this method was limited to serial data using time series techniques in this study, it can be extended to spatial data using geostatistical techniques. The method was first evaluated in a synthetic study and then applied to an experimental study, in which alternative surface complexation models were developed to simulate column experiments of uranium reactive transport. It was found that the total errors of the alternative models were temporally correlated due to the model errors. The iterative two-stage method using C ek resolved the problem that the best model receives 100% model averaging weight, and the resulting model averaging weights were supported by the calibration results and physical understanding of the alternative models. Using C ek obtained from the iterative two-stage method also improved predictive performance of the individual models and model averaging in both synthetic and experimental studies.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2024

Dryland fungi are spatially heterogeneous and resistant to global change drivers

Fungi are considered particularly important in regulating the structure and function of dryland ecosystems, yet the response of dryland fungal communities to global change remains notably understudied. Without a clear understanding of how fungi respond to global change drivers, mitigation plans—required for biodiversity and ecosystem service conservation and restoration—are impossible to develop. In this study, we asked the following: (1) How does the fungal community respond to the individual and interactive effects of physical disturbance and drought in a heterogeneous dryland landscape comprised of drought-adapted shrubs separated by adjacent open areas of soil? (2) What are the larger scale impacts of this response? We assessed fungal communities (using fungal-specific DNA metabarcoding analyses) of surface soil samples in an in situ global change experiment that included disturbance and drought in a full factorial design in the northern extent of the Chihuahuan Desert. We found that the fungal community was spatially heterogenous and remarkably resistant to disturbance and drought. We also show that dryland soils harbor high shares of facultative pathogenic and obligately pathogenic fungal taxa, with several concerning taxa reaching high relative abundances under drought. Our results suggest that the fungal community is highly influenced by microclimatic conditions associated with the presence or absence of vegetation. Moreover, our results imply that the fungal community in our experiment was already adapted to the magnitude of stress imposed by two years of experimental disturbance and drought treatments. Overall, our study shows that the fungal community is spatially heterogeneous and resistant to global change drivers and houses many fungal species known for being stress tolerant and pathogenic.

New Mexico↗

USGS2009

Composition of the seed bank in drawdown areas of navigation pool 8 of the upper Mississippi river

In an effort to enhance aquatic plant production and habitat diversity on the Upper Mississippi River (UMR), resource managers considered water level reduction as a management tool to increase the area of emergent and submersed aquatic vegetation by natural seed germination. To quantify the availability of seed, we assessed the potential seed bank of selected areas of Navigation Pool 8 of the UMR from substrate samples collected in spring 2000. We tested these samples for viable seed content under four hydrologic conditions: dry, moist, shallow flooded and submerged. Forty-seven species were identified in the seed bank, including 27 obligate wetland, 10 facultative wetland and 7 upland species. Dominant taxa within the seed bank included Sagittaria spp., Lindernia dubia, Zosterella dubia, Cyperus spp., Eragrostis spp. and Leersia oryzoides. Of the four hydrologic treatments, moist substrates had the greatest species diversity and were the most productive, yielding an average density of 1420 seedlings m -2 . Emergent and submersed aquatic species were widely distributed, each type occurring in more than 90% of the samples. Timing of seedling germination varied among species and has implications for scheduling drawdowns to promote establishment of desired species. Seed bank results were correlated with the vegetation response on substrates exposed during a reduction of water levels of Pool 8 during summer 2001. Experimentally determining the composition and viability of seed banks from drawdown areas provides information useful in predicting the types of vegetation that may develop on exposed substrates. Further, these findings provide resource managers a better understanding of the potential for achieving desired vegetation response through water level reductions.

River Research and Applications↗