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USGS2023

Status and trends of total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations, loads, and yields in streams of Mississippi, water years 2008–18

To assess the status and trends of conditions of surface waters throughout Mississippi, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ), summarized concentrations and estimated loads, yields, trends, and spatial and temporal patterns of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) at 20 stream sites in MDEQ’s ambient water-quality monitoring network and 2 stream sites in the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment Project’s monitoring network. Comparison of streamflow at the time of water-quality sample collection to flow-duration curves for each site showed that samples were relatively evenly spread over a wide range of flows, indicating that load estimations were representative of a wide range of flows. Relation of streamflow to concentrations of TN and TP varied among sites and land use. Sites with high agriculture land use in the drainage basin tended to have a positive correlation between streamflow and concentration, suggesting influence of event-driven nonpoint-source runoff. Sites near urban (developed) areas tended to have a negative correlation between streamflow and concentration, suggesting chronic point-source influences during low-flow conditions. Sites with high forest land use and lower agriculture and urban (developed) land use showed little to no association between streamflow and concentration. Seasonal distributions of concentrations of TN and TP also corresponded closely with variations in land use. Sites near urban (developed) land had the highest concentrations in late summer and fall, sites with a high percentage of agricultural land had the highest concentrations in the spring, and sites that were primarily forested or with little developed land did not exhibit substantial changes in concentration across seasons. Eight sites had statistical likelihoods for upward trends of TN loads, and seven sites had statistical likelihoods for downward trends. Trends in TN loads at six sites were considered “about as likely as not,” meaning that a site has an equal chance of having an upward or downward trend. Trend results of mean annual flow-normalized loads of TP for the period of analysis (2008–18) showed that 16 sites had upward trends, 3 sites had downward trends, and 2 sites were considered “about as likely as not.” Results from our study were compared to results from existing regional models to assess accuracy of predictions at a local scale. Comparisons of yields predicted from 2012 regional-scale SPAtially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) to results from this study showed the 2012 SPARROW-predicted estimates varied in consistency with results from this study. The 2012 SPARROW-prediction model underestimated TN yields, more often and by a slightly larger degree, more than it overestimated TN yields. The 2012 SPARROW-predicted model tended to underestimate yields at study sites with higher yields. All four sites in the predominantly agricultural area of northwest Mississippi, locally known as the Mississippi Delta, were underestimated by 2012 SPARROW. For TP, yield comparisons at sites with lower yields were consistent, yields at sites with midrange yields tended to be overestimated by SPARROW, and yields at sites with high yields tended to be underestimated by SPARROW. TP yields at four sites in the Mississippi Delta were underestimated by the 2012 SPARROW-predicted model. Results of select sites from our study were also compared to other published load estimates from an earlier time period to evaluate possible trends. Comparison of TN yields at four sites and TP yields at three sites from the study-derived estimates to estimates made from data spanning 1993–2004 showed decreasing TN yields at all four sites and decreasing TP yields at two of three sites, with increasing yields of TP at the Yazoo River lower site. Also, a third comparison of the TN and TP yields of the Yazoo River lower site of this study to estimates made from data spanning 1996–97 showed decreasing TN yields but similar TP yields. This suggests that TN yields may have decreased over the last 20–30 years, but TP yields remain constant or are increasing.

Mississippi↗

USGS2015

Establishing a definition of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) health: A guide to research and management activities

The meaning of health for wildlife and perspectives on how to assess and measure health, are not well characterized. For wildlife at risk, such as some polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations, establishing comprehensive monitoring programs that include health status is an emerging need. Environmental changes, especially loss of sea ice habitat, have raised concern about polar bear health. Effective and consistent monitoring of polar bear health requires an unambiguous definition of health. We used the Delphi method of soliciting and interpreting expert knowledge to propose a working definition of polar bear health and to identify current concerns regarding health, challenges in measuring health, and important metrics for monitoring health. The expert opinion elicited through the exercise agreed that polar bear health is defined by characteristics and knowledge at the individual, population, and ecosystem level. The most important threats identified were in decreasing order: climate change, increased nutritional stress, chronic physiological stress, harvest management, increased exposure to contaminants, increased frequency of human interaction, diseases and parasites, and increased exposure to competitors. Fifteen metrics were identified to monitor polar bear health. Of these, indicators of body condition, disease and parasite exposure, contaminant exposure, and reproductive success were ranked as most important. We suggest that a cumulative effects approach to research and monitoring will improve the ability to assess the biological, ecological, and social determinants of polar bear health and provide measurable objectives for conservation goals and priorities and to evaluate progress.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2013

Streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality monitoring by USGS Nevada Water Science Center

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has monitored and assessed the quantity and quality of our Nation's streams and aquifers since its inception in 1879. Today, the USGS provides hydrologic information to aid in the evaluation of the availability and suitability of water for public and domestic supply, agriculture, aquatic ecosystems, mining, and energy development. Although the USGS has no responsibility for the regulation of water resources, the USGS hydrologic data complement much of the data collected by state, county, and municipal agencies, tribal nations, U.S. District Court Water Masters, and other federal agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency, which focuses on monitoring for regulatory compliance. The USGS continues its mission to provide timely and relevant water-resources data and information that are available to water-resource managers, non-profit organizations, industry, academia, and the public. Data collected by the USGS provide the science needed for informed decision-making related to resource management and restoration, assessment of flood and drought hazards, ecosystem health, and effects on water resources from land-use changes.

Nevada↗

USGS2000

Population and habitat viability assessments for Golden-cheeked Warblers and Black-capped Vireos: Usefulness to Partners in Flight Conservation Planning

Golden-cheeked Warblers and Black-capped Vireos are Neotropical migratory birds that are federally listed as endangered. Recovery plans for both species advise the use of viability modeling as a tool for setting specific recovery and management targets. Population and Habitat Viability Assessment workshops were conducted to develop population targets and conservation recommendations for these species. Results of the workshops were based on modeling demographic and environmental factors, as well as discussions of management issues, management options, and public outreach strategies. The approach is intended to be iterative, and to be tracked by research and monitoring efforts. This paper discusses the consensus-building workshop process and how the approach could be useful to Partners in Flight. Population and Habitat Viability Assessments (PHVA) were used to develop population targets and conservation recommendations for Golden-cheeked Warblers (Dendroica chrysoparia) and Black-capped Vireos (Vireo atricapillus). This paper explains what PHVAs are, discusses how they are conducted, describes the general results that are produced, and suggests how Partners in Flight (PIF) might use a similar process for bird conservation planning. Detailed results of the assessments are not discussed here; however they can be found elsewhere (U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1996a, U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1996b). PHVAs were considered for Golden-cheeked Warblers and Black-capped Vireos because they are controversial, endangered species, and the species? recovery plans list PHVAs as tools to develop recovery recommendations. The U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) realized that the data needed to perform PHVAs for these species is limited, but that various conservation efforts, such as the Balcones Canyonlands Conservation Plan and other endeavors, were proceeding without benefit of the biological summarization and guidance that a PHVA could provide.

Book chapter↗

USGS2002

Water quality monitoring of Sweetwater and Loveland reservoirs--Phase one results 1998-1999

In 1998, the U.S. Geological Survey began a study to assess the overall health of the watershed feeding the Sweetwater Reservoir in southern San Diego County, California. The study focussed on monitoring for organic chemical contamination and the effects of construction and operation of State Route 125 on water quality. Three environmental compartments (air, water, and bed sediments) are being sampled regularly for chemical contaminants, including volatile organic compounds, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, pesticides, and major and trace elements. The study is divided into two phases. Phase I sampling is designed to establish baseline conditions for target compounds in terms of detection frequency and concentration in air, water, and bed sediments. Phase II sampling will continue at the established monitoring sites during and after construction of State Route 125 to assess chemical impact on water quality in the reservoir resulting from land-use changes and development in the watershed. This report describes the study design, the sampling and analytical methods, and presents the data results for the first year of the study, September 1998 to September 1999.

California↗

USGS2021

Rapid monitoring of the abundance and spread of exotic annual grasses in the western United States using remote sensing and machine learning

Exotic annual grasses (EAG) are one of the most damaging agents of change in western North America. Despite known socio-environmental effects of EAG there remains a need to enhance monitoring capabilities for better informing conservation and management practices. Here, we integrate field observations, remote sensing and climate data with machine-learning techniques to estimate and assess patterns of historical (1985–2019; R 2 = 0.86 ± 0.05; MAE = 6.7 ± 1.4%), present (2020), and future (2025–2040) EAG abundance (30-m) across much of the western United States. Trend analysis revealed that ∼8% and 1% of the landscape experienced significant rises and declines in historical EAG cover, respectively, with hotspots of invasion generally occurring near roads and along low-to-mid elevation gradients with warmer and drier conditions. Accurate simulations of the response of EAG to changing environmental conditions, disturbances and management treatments indicate that ecosystem resistance to invasion is largely controlled by long-term EAG abundance (surrogate for seed bank), time since and frequency of wildfire, and plant community interactions. Ecological thresholds associated with enhanced probabilities of wildfire occurrence and invasion rates indicate that relatively little (10%) EAG cover is needed to heighten these risks. Climate change is expected to push 8% of the landscape across invasion thresholds by 2040, impacting 6% of existing sage-grouse habitat, and we identify where fuel breaks may be placed to reduce wildfire risks and invasion. Spatially detailed, timely, and accurate depictions of past, present, and future EAG abundance are vital for the protection of life and property and the continued stewardship of sagebrush ecosystems.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah,↗

USGS2015

Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

Oecologia↗

USGS2023

Long-term demographic analysis of the Cape Sable seaside sparrow (1992–2021)

The Cape Sable seaside sparrow (Ammospiza maritima mirabilis) is an endangered species that has experienced a population decline of more than 60% since 1981. Despite its critical population status, a statistically robust analysis of the species’ demographic rates utilizing all data has yet to be completed (Benscoter et al. 2021). Furthermore, long-term population processes in response to hydrologic and environmental conditions have not been evaluated for this species. To address these substantial gaps in knowledge, 30 years of demographic data were synthesized to assess population dynamics of this imperiled species using an integrated population model (IPM). Three demographic data types (range-wide counts, capture-mark-recapture, nest monitoring) were incorporated into a unified IPM to evaluate demographic processes and predict population trajectories. The following were calculated: (1) annual estimates of annual population size, survival, and fecundity; (2) coefficient estimates of hydrologic and environmental variables on survival and fecundity; (3) estimates of annual population growth and their correlation with demographic rates; and (4) a Bayesian population viability analysis (BPVA) that includes predicted population size, demographic rates, and extinction risks ten years into the future.

Report↗

USGS2025

Great Lakes lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) thiamine monitoring program annual report

Thiamine deficiency in lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) eggs has been linked to early life-stage mortality in the Great Lakes from the 1960s through the 1990s, potentially affecting lake trout recruitment. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Great Lakes Science Center (GLSC), Eastern Ecological Science Center (EESC), and Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC), and the State University of New York (SUNY) Brockport, in collaboration with partner agencies, initiated a cooperative monitoring program in the late 1990s to assess thiamine concentrations in lake trout eggs. In 2024, egg thiamine concentrations continued to show high variability across sampling sites. No samples with thiamine concentrations below the 4 nmol/g threshold recommended for successful reproduction were observed in Lakes Superior or Huron. In contrast, between 11% and 88% of lake trout sampled from sites in Lakes Michigan, Ontario, Champlain, and the Finger Lakes had egg thiamine concentrations below this critical threshold. Time series data revealed substantial temporal and spatial variation in mean lake trout egg thiamine concentrations across the Great Lakes region.

Finger Lakes, Great Lakes, Lake Champlain↗

USGS2025

Great Lakes lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) thiamine monitoring program annual report

Thiamine deficiency in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) eggs has been linked to early life-stage mortality in the Great Lakes from the 1960s through the 1990s, potentially affecting lake trout recruitment. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Great Lakes Science Center (GLSC), Eastern Ecological Science Center (EESC), and Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC), and the State University of New York (SUNY) Brockport, in collaboration with partner agencies, initiated a cooperative monitoring program in the late 1990s to assess thiamine concentrations in lake trout eggs. In 2024, egg thiamine concentrations continued to show high variability across sampling sites. No samples with thiamine concentrations below the 4 nmol/g threshold recommended for successful reproduction were observed in Lakes Superior or Huron. In contrast, between 11% and 88% of lake trout sampled from sites in Lakes Michigan, Ontario, Champlain, and the Finger Lakes had egg thiamine concentrations below this critical threshold. Time series data revealed substantial temporal and spatial variation in mean lake trout egg thiamine concentrations across the Great Lakes region.

Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, Ontario, Ch↗

USGS2011

Demographics and run timing of adult Lost River ( Deltistes luxatus ) and short nose ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2009

Data from a long-term capture-recapture program were used to assess the status and dynamics of populations of two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Lost River suckers ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) have been captured and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags during their spawning migrations in each year since 1995. In addition, beginning in 2005, individuals that had been previously PIT-tagged were reencountered on remote underwater antennas deployed throughout the spawning areas. Captures and remote encounters during spring 2009 were used to describe the spawning migrations in that year and also were incorporated into capture-recapture analyses of population dynamics over the last decade. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open population capture-recapture models were used to estimate annual survival probabilities, and a reverse-time analog of the CJS model was used to estimate recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations. In addition, data on the size composition of captured fish was examined for any additional evidence of recruitment. Survival and recruitment estimates were combined to estimate changes in population size over time and to determine the status of the populations through 2007. Separate analyses were conducted for each species and also for each subpopulation of Lost River suckers (LRS). One subpopulation of LRS migrates into tributaries to spawn, similar to shortnose suckers (SNS), whereas the other subpopulation spawns at upwelling areas along the eastern shoreline of the lake. In 2009, we captured and tagged 781 LRS at four shoreline areas and recaptured an additional 638 individuals that had been tagged in previous years. Across all four areas, the remote antennas detected 6,056 individual LRS during the spawning season. Spawning activity peaked in April and most individuals were encountered at Sucker Springs and Cinder Flats. In the Williamson River, we captured and tagged 3,008 LRS and 287 SNS, and recaptured 271 LRS and 81 SNS that had been tagged in previous years. Remote antennas that spanned the river downstream of the tributary spawning areas detected a total of 12,509 LRS and 5,023 SNS. Most LRS passed upstream in mid-April when water temperatures were rising and near or greater than 10°C. In contrast, peaks in upstream passage of SNS occurred in late April and early May when water temperatures were rising and near or greater than 12°C. Finally, an additional 1,569 LRS and 1,794 SNS were captured in trammel net sampling at prespawn staging areas in the northeastern portion of the lake. Of these, 209 of the LRS and 452 of the SNS had been PIT-tagged in previous years. For LRS, encounter histories showed that nearly all of the fish captured at the staging areas were members of the subpopulation that spawns in the tributaries. Capture-recapture analyses for the LRS subpopulation that spawns at the shoreline areas included encounter histories for more than 9,000 individuals, and analyses for the subpopulation that spawns in the tributaries included more than 14,000 encounter histories. With a few exceptions, the survival of males and females in both subpopulations was high (>0.9) between 1999 and 2007. Notably lower survival occurred for both sexes from the tributaries in 2000, for males from the shoreline areas in 2002, and for males from the tributaries in 2006. Recruitment of new individuals into either spawning population was trivial in all years between 2002 and 2007. Over that period, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation declined by 44–53 percent and the abundance of females declined by 25–38 percent. Similarly, the abundance of males in the tributary spawning subpopulation declined by as much as 39 percent and the abundance of females declined by as much as 33 percent. Capture-recapture analyses for SNS included encounter histories for more than 12,000 individuals. The majority of annual survival estimates between 2001 and 2007 were high (>0.8), but SNS experienced more years of low survival than either LRS subpopulation. The survival of both sexes was particularly low in both 2001 and 2004, and male survival also was somewhat low in 2002 and 2006. Similar to LRS, recruitment of new individuals into the spawning population was trivial in all years between 2001 and 2007. Over that period, the abundance of male SNS declined by 58–80 percent and the abundance of females declined by 52–73 percent. Despite relatively high survival in most years, both species have experienced substantial declines in the abundance of spawning fish because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Indeed, all populations appear to be largely comprised of fish that were present in the late 1990s and early 2000s. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains worrisome, and the situation is most dire for shortnose suckers. Survival analyses show that the two species do not necessarily experience poor survival in the same years and that poor survival on an annual scale is not predictable from fish die-offs observed in the summer and fall. Future analyses will explore the connections between annual sucker survival and environmental factors of interest, such as water quality and disease. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Oregon↗

USGS2024

Predicting Lake Huron Dreissena spp. spatial distribution patterns from environmental characteristics

Invasive dreissenid mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha and Dreissena rostriformis bugensis ) have altered Great Lakes ecosystems through a multitude of effects on benthic habitats, food web structure, and nutrient cycling. This study explores whether spatially continuous geographic data of environmental factors can be utilized to predict Dreissena spp. spatial distributions on a lake-wide scale. Categorical variables were also assessed for significant relationships with Dreissena spp. biomass. Point observations from the 2017 Lake Huron benthic survey under the Cooperative Science and Monitoring Initiative (CSMI) were utilized for in situ measurements of dreissenid presence and biomass at 119 sites across Lake Huron. Basin, bathymetric zone, and tributary influence were found to have statistically significant relationships to dreissenid biomass. A boosted regression tree (BRT) model (ROC score 0.707) was developed to spatially predict dreissenid presence probability across Lake Huron from six environmental explanatory variables: April, May, and October chlorophyll, June dissolved organic carbon, January bottom temperature, and May bottom temperature. The importance of food availability and bottom temperature illuminated relationships between dreissenid mussels and periods of benthic-pelagic mixing in the spring and fall seasons. Future models could be improved through advancements in survey technology for improved geographic characterization of mussel habitat characteristics and environmental constraints.

Lake Huron↗

USGS2003

Arsenic in Illinois ground water — Community and private supplies

Assessing the distribution of arsenic in ground water from community-water supplies, private supplies, or monitoring wells is part of the process of determining the risk of arsenic contamination of drinking water in Illinois. Lifestyle, genetic, and environmental factors make certain members of the population more susceptible to adverse health effects from repeated exposure to drinking water with high arsenic concentrations (Ryker, 2001). In addition, such factors may have geographic distribution patterns that complicate the analysis of the relation between arsenic in drinking water and health effects. For example, arsenic may not be the only constituent affecting the quality of drinking water in a region (Ryker, 2001); however, determining the extent and distribution of arsenic in ground water is a starting place to assess the potential risk for persons drinking from a community or private supply. Understanding the potential sources and pathways that mobilize arsenic in ground water is a necessary step in protecting the drinking-water supply in Illinois.

Illinios↗

USGS2004

Mute swans: Natural (?) environmental indicators

The rapid expansion of the Chesapeake Bay's population of feral mute swans (Cygnus olar), coupled with a dramatic Bay-wide decline in submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), has fueled much of the current debate surrounding the need for a management plan to protect the aquatic food resources that are critical to many species native to the Bay. Crucial to this decision process is a sound understanding of the ecological ramifications of having the year-round presence of a large, nonnative, aquatic herbivore on the Bay. Ultimately, this will require a quantitative assessment of the ecological harm currently posed by mute swans before a biologically defensible management strategy can be developed. Unfortunately, very little new information specific to the Bay's mute swan population has been gathered since Reese first studied them in the late 1960s and 1970s. While the debate over what to do about the rapidly expanding mute swan population continues, there is much that can be gained from study of this beautiful intruder. Several recent studies of the feeding habits of mute swans have shown that mutes can provide a unique barometer, or indicator, of environmental conditions. Because of their reliance on SAV as a primary food source, monitoring the density of swans utilizing a particular area can give some indication of the status of the area's grass beds. This phenomenon was clearly demonstrated during the summer of 1999 when there was a dramatic decline in the number of swans observed around the Eastern Neck NWR, a traditional population stronghold. The shift in bird use was precipitated by a rapid, large-scale collapse of the area's aquatic grass beds, possibly the result of a prolonged drought. During the winter of 2000/2001, a similar ecological assessment was conducted by comparing body weights of swans collected from Tangier Sound, an area with relatively abundant grass beds, and swans from the waters adjacent to Eastern Neck Island. Swans weights tended to reflect the conditions of their surroundings, with the Tangier Sound birds being slightly heavier at the onset of the breeding season. Interestingly, the birds at Eastern Neck showed a 1 kg decline in weight after dispersal from their wintering locations and entered the breeding season with noticeably less subcutaneous fat than the birds sampled in Tangier Sound. The fact that mute swans are nonmigratory and feed exclusively on benthic food items makes them an ideal organ-ism to monitor the degree of contamination of sediments within the Bay. In 1995, we compared the accumulation of metals by mute swans and other waterfowl and related it to metal concentrations in the sediments from the areas where the birds were collected. This study led to the development of an exposure model that more accurately assesses the risk of exposure to environmental contaminants through incidental ingestion of sediments, as opposed to the traditional assessment of contaminant accumulation through the food chain. This sediment exposure pathway was subsequently shown to be the primary route of exposure of swans to metals in risk assessments conducted at two Superfund sites.

Book chapter↗

USGS2024

Strong variation in Brook Trout trends across geology, elevation, and stream size in Shenandoah National Park

Objective Landscape context structures fish abundance and dynamics, and understanding trends in fish abundance across the landscape is often prerequisite for effective conservation. In this study, we evaluated the status and trends of Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis in Shenandoah National Park to understand how these are structured across bedrock geology, elevation, and stream size. Methods We used long-term monitoring data from 94 sites in Shenandoah National Park to evaluate trends in Brook Trout abundance over a 27-year period (1996–2022) and assess the importance of local environmental covariates using a hierarchical Bayesian N-mixture model based on depletion sampling. Focal covariates were chosen for their demonstrated importance in structuring fish populations in Shenandoah National Park and elsewhere. Bedrock geology controls sensitivity to acid deposition, watershed area is related to stream habitat features such as complexity and flow variability, and elevation creates gradients in temperature. Result Models revealed significant decreases in adult Brook Trout abundance over time (95% credible intervals < 0) for 31 of 94 sites (33%), and at least three sites exhibited apparent extirpations over the study period. Estimated Brook Trout abundance declined by 50% or more in approximately 70% of streams across the park over the study period. Sites with the warmest water temperatures exhibited the fastest declines in abundance. However, large watersheds on poorly buffered bedrock exhibited significant gains in abundance over time, suggesting some recovery from acid deposition due to improvements in air quality. Conclusion Our analysis revealed large and divergent changes in Brook Trout abundance over recent decades and suggests the importance of local water temperature and acid sensitivity as probable causal mechanisms. These results highlight the importance of considering local factors when evaluating long-term trends in stream fish populations. Results of this study can assist the development of targeted conservation actions within Shenandoah National Park and elsewhere.

Virginia↗

USGS2016

Prediction of pesticide toxicity in Midwest streams

The occurrence of pesticide mixtures is common in stream waters of the United States, and the impact of multiple compounds on aquatic organisms is not well understood. Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) models were developed to predict Pesticide Toxicity Index (PTI) values in unmonitored streams in the Midwest and are referred to as WARP-PTI models. The PTI is a tool for assessing the relative toxicity of pesticide mixtures to fish, benthic invertebrates, and cladocera in stream water. One hundred stream sites in the Midwest were sampled weekly in May through August 2013, and the highest calculated PTI for each site was used as the WARP-PTI model response variable. Watershed characteristics that represent pesticide sources and transport were used as the WARP-PTI model explanatory variables. Three WARP-PTI models—fish, benthic invertebrates, and cladocera—were developed that include watershed characteristics describing toxicity-weighted agricultural use intensity, land use, agricultural management practices, soil properties, precipitation, and hydrologic properties. The models explained between 41 and 48% of the variability in the measured PTI values. WARP-PTI model evaluation with independent data showed reasonable performance with no clear bias. The models were applied to streams in the Midwest to demonstrate extrapolation for a regional assessment to indicate vulnerable streams and to guide more intensive monitoring.

Midwest↗

USGS2025

Streamflow as a stressor: Disentangling hydrology and water quality impacts to characterize flow-ecology relationships for two stream assemblages across two southeastern landscapes

Disassociating the independent effects of flow and water quality on the ecology of flowing waters is an overarching goal in water resource science needed to improve the efficacy of watershed management. However, the interrelatedness of these gradients and their subsequent alteration due to land use change has constrained progress made on this front. The objective of this study was to use benthic macroinvertebrate and fish assemblage data to characterize flow-ecology relationships that were unchanged by water quality impacts across two southeastern landscapes in the USA to help detect ecological change driven by flow alteration. General linear latent models were used to identify taxa that were responsive to high or low flow metrics and water quality gradients. Bayesian hierarchical generalized additive models were then developed using these indicator taxa and three biological metrics to identify flow-specific relationships that were unaffected by water quality impacts. Three low flow-specific relationships were identified, illustrating how potential agricultural or urban impacts to hydrology reduced stream biological health. Importantly, flow-ecology relationships developed using indicator taxa in this study effectively captured hydrology-specific impacts while biological metrics typical of state monitoring and assessment programs did not. Therefore, developing flow-specific biological metrics is a critical step when developing management strategies targeting flow alteration. Implementing standardized frameworks such as the one characterized here can limit contradictory findings and improve streamflow enhancement and restoration project efficacy. These low flow-specific relationships will enhance managers' capacity to develop environmental flow standards, monitor their success, and better understand urban and agricultural impacts on stream assemblages.

Alabama↗

USGS2024

Spatial and temporal surveys of salmon environmental DNA (eDNA) in a Seattle urban creek

Seattle Public Utilities (SPU) has a history of conducting traditional fish surveys in urban streams of Seattle, Washington. Limited staff resources have reduced SPU's capacity to monitor fish, and environmental DNA (eDNA) was recognized as an alternative survey method that could potentially improve the efficiency and capacity of SPU-sponsored fish surveys. We performed spatiotemporal surveys of eDNA to assess occupancy and distribution of Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), Coho Salmon ( O . kisutch ), and Coastal Cutthroat Trout ( O . clarkii clarkii ) in Thornton Creek, Seattle, between October 2018 and December 2020. Peak Chinook and Coho eDNA detections occurred in October and October–November, respectively, coinciding with expected adult return time. Chinook and Coho eDNA was detected in May at the time when juveniles outmigrate through the Lake Washington basin. Coastal Cutthroat Trout eDNA was widespread and detected at high rates across seasons, reflecting their ubiquitous distribution. Results from multiscale occupancy modeling suggested that distance upstream affected site-level occupancy probabilities for adult Chinook, but not Coho. Model results also suggested that the probability of Coho and Chinook eDNA occurring in water samples was affected by survey year. Finally, model results suggested that the probability of detecting Chinook eDNA in PCR technical replicates was affected by survey year and collection day but detection of Coho eDNA was only affected by collection day. This study indicates eDNA surveys are effective for assessing distribution and occupancy of salmonids in Seattle's urban streams. Integrating eDNA surveys into urban stream monitoring programs can help alleviate the burden of limited assets facing many resource managers.

Washington↗