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At least 487 records · Page 27Linked to original sources

Source characteristics of the Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 18, 1989 from global digital seismic data

Displacement, velocity and acceleration records of P and SH body waves recorded at teleseismic distances are analysed to determine the static and dynamic source parameters of the Loma Prieta, California earthquake of October 18, 1989 ( m b 6.6, M s 7.1). Three distinct bursts of energy corresponding to three subevents can be recognized in most records. The displacement waveforms indicate that the first subevent contributes negligible moment while the largest releases of moment and energy are controlled by the second and third subevents. The second and third subevents are located north and south of the initial nucleation. A fourth small subevent needed to model later features of the P waveforms suggests that slow slip continued after the major releases of energy occurred. The waveforms are fit with a fault plane solution having strike 130°, dip 65° and slip 140° for all the subevents. The focal depths of the two major subevents are 16 and 12 km, and their asperity radii are 4.0 and 6.0 km, respectively. The seismic moment, M 0 , is 2.2×10 26 dyne-cm. From spectral analysis of teleseismic velocity, the radiated energy, E s , is estimated to be 1.1×10 22 dyne-cm, implying an apparent stress of 15 bars. From the high-frequency level of the teleseismic acceleration spectrum and a rupture area of 440 km 2 , we derive a dynamic stress drop of 51 bars.

California↗

Path durations for use in the stochastic‐method simulation of ground motions

The stochastic method of ground‐motion simulation assumes that the energy in a target spectrum is spread over a duration D T . D T is generally decomposed into the duration due to source effects (D S ) and to path effects (D P ). For the most commonly used source, seismological theory directly relates D S to the source corner frequency, accounting for the magnitude scaling of D T . In contrast, D P is related to propagation effects that are more difficult to represent by analytic equations based on the physics of the process. We are primarily motivated to revisit D T because the function currently employed by many implementations of the stochastic method for active tectonic regions underpredicts observed durations, leading to an overprediction of ground motions for a given target spectrum. Further, there is some inconsistency in the literature regarding which empirical duration corresponds to D T . Thus, we begin by clarifying the relationship between empirical durations and D T as used in the first author’s implementation of the stochastic method, and then we develop a new D P relationship. The new D P function gives significantly longer durations than in the previous D P function, but the relative contribution of D P to D T still diminishes with increasing magnitude. Thus, this correction is more important for small events or subfaults of larger events modeled with the stochastic finite‐fault method.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Guide for benthic invertebrate studies in support of Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration

This guide is intended to assist with characterizing injury to freshwater benthic macroinvertebrates (BMIs) in Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration (NRDAR) cases. The contents are narrowly focused on insects, crustaceans, snails, and other invertebrate fauna that are typically considered part of BMI communities and are not intended to address studies of injury to larger benthic taxa such as freshwater mussels, crayfish, or benthic fishes or amphibians. Although some percentage of the community functions as predators, BMIs are predominantly primary consumers (for example, scrapers, shredders, and filterer/gatherer feeding groups) that play an essential role in converting carbon and nitrogen from plant tissues into animal biomass for higher-order consumers, especially in flowing waters. Aquatic contaminants can disrupt the quantity and quality of energy transferred (ecosystem function) by reducing invertebrate biomass and diversity. Additionally, the accumulation of toxic residues in invertebrate tissues may be a source of exposure leading to adverse effects in higher trophic levels. The goal of NRDAR BMI assessments is to establish direct linkages of contaminant exposure to injuries reflected by changes in community structure (for example, reduced density and taxa richness) or by effects at the individual population level (for example, survival, growth, and reproduction). BMIs are infrequently the U.S. Department of Interior (DOI)-managed resource in a NRDAR case, with managed resources more frequently including migratory birds, fish, or other insectivorous vertebrates. Therefore, it is critical to have clearly defined objectives for evaluating BMIs and an understanding of how invertebrate data relate to the quantification of injuries to the DOI-managed resource. This guide is intended to assist decisions on whether or not to proceed with BMI studies, use of existing information and data for screening purposes, and what types of studies can support a BMI-injury determination. This document is intended to provide general considerations and best practices for assessing BMIs. Relevant guidance and references are listed throughout the report as sources for specific methods and analysis.

Open-File Report↗

SSEBop evapotranspiration estimates using synthetically derived Landsat data from the continuous change detection and classification algorithm

The operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model has been utilized to generate gridded evapotranspiration data from Landsat images. These estimates are primarily driven by two sources of information: reference evapotranspiration and Landsat land surface temperature (LST) values. Hence, SSEBop is limited by the availability of Landsat data. Here, in this proof-of-concept paper, we utilize the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm to generate synthetic Landsat data, which are then used as input for SSEBop to generate evapotranspiration estimates for six target areas in the continental United States, representing forests, shrublands, and irrigated agriculture. These synthetic land cover data are then used to generate the LST data required for SSEBop evapotranspiration estimates. The synthetic LST, evaporative fractions, and evapotranspiration data from CCDC closely mirror the phenological cycles in the observed Landsat data. Across the six sites, the median correlation in seasonal LST was 0.79, and the median correlation in seasonal evapotranspiration was 0.8. The median root mean squared error (RMSE) values were 2.82 °C for LST and 0.50 mm/day for actual evapotranspiration. CCDC predictions typically underestimate the average evapotranspiration by less than 1 mm/day. The average performance of the CCDC evaporative fractions, and corresponding evapotranspiration estimates, were much better than the initial LST estimates and, therefore, promising. Future work could include bias correction to improve CCDC’s ability to accurately reproduce synthetic Landsat data during the summer, allowing for more accurate evapotranspiration estimates, and determining the ability of SSEBop to predict regional evapotranspiration at seasonal timescales based on projected land cover change from CCDC.

Remote Sensing↗

Dense array recordings in the San Bernardino Valley of landers-big bear aftershocks: Basin surface waves, Moho reflections, and three-dimensional simulations

Fourteen GEOS seismic recorders were deployed in the San Bernardino Valley to study the propagation of short-period ( T ≈ 1 to 3 sec) surface waves and Moho reflections. Three dense arrays were used to determine the direction and speed of propagation of arrivals in the seismograms. The seismograms for a shallow ( d ≈ 1 km) M 4.9 aftershock of the Big Bear earthquake exhibit a very long duration (60 sec) of sustained shaking at periods of about 2 sec. Array analysis indicates that these late arrivals are dominated by surface waves traveling in various directions across the Valley. Some energy is arriving from a direction 180° from the epicenter and was apparently reflected from the edge of the Valley opposite the source. A close-in aftershock (Δ = 25 km, depth = 7 km) displays substantial short-period surface waves at deep-soil sites. A three-dimensional (3D) finite difference simulation produces synthetic seismograms with durations similar to those of the observed records for this event, indicating the importance of S -wave to surface-wave conversion near the edge of the basin. Flat-layered models severely underpredict the duration and spectral amplification of this deep-soil site. I show an example where the coda wave amplitude ratio at 1 to 2 Hz between a deep-soil and a rock site does not equal the S -wave amplitude ratio, because of the presence of surface waves in the coda of the deep-soil site. For one of the events studied (Δ ≈ 90 km), there are sizable phases that are critically reflected from the Moho ( PmP and SmS ). At one of the rock sites, the SmS phase has a more peaked spectrum that the direct S wave.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Environmental versus genetic influences on growth rates of the corals Pocillopora eydouxi and Porites lobata (Anthozoa: Scleractinia)

Reciprocal transplant experiments of the corals Pocillopora eydouxi Milne Edwards & Haime and Porites lobata Dana were carried out for an 18-month period from September 2004 to March 2006 between two back reef pools on Ofu Island, American Samoa, to test environmental versus genetic effects on skeletal growth rates. Skeletal growth of P. eydouxi showed environmental but not genetic effects, resulting in doubling of growth in Pool 300 compared with Pool 400. There were no environmental or genetic effects on skeletal growth of P. lobata. Pool 300 had more frequent and longer durations of elevated seawater temperatures than Pool 400, characteristics likely to decrease rather than increase skeletal growth. Pool 300 also had higher nutrient levels and flow velocities than Pool 400, characteristics that may increase skeletal growth. However, higher nutrient levels would be expected to increase skeletal growth in both species, but there was no difference between the pools in P. lobata growth. P. eydouxi is much more common in high-energy environments than P. lobata; thus the higher flow velocities in Pool 300 than in Pool 400 may have positively affected skeletal growth of P. eydouxi while not having a detectable effect on P. lobata. The greater skeletal growth of P. eydouxi in Pool 300 occurred despite the presence of clade D zooxanthellae in several source colonies in Pool 300, a genotype known to result in greater heat resistance but slower skeletal growth. Increased skeletal growth rates in higher water motion may provide P. eydouxi a competitive advantage in shallow, high-energy enviromnents where competition for space is intense. ?? 2008 by University of Hawai'i Press. All rights reserved.

Pacific Science↗

Learning from real-world experience to understand renewable energy impacts to wildlife

The project team sought to use real-world data to understand adverse effects to wildlife of renewable energy production that is critical to meeting California’s climate and clean energy goals. The project had three main components. First, a systematic literature review studied 20 peer-reviewed publications and 612 reports from other nonreviewed sources from 231 wind and solar facilities in North America. Within California, 50 percent of facilities collected pre- and post-construction data, 30 percent had experimental study designs, and fewer than 7 percent estimated detection probability during habitat use surveys. Mitigation at wind power plants focused on repowering to reduce risk to soaring birds and at solar facilities emphasized wildlife deterrence and compensatory mitigation. Second, the authors developed a best-practices approach to employ environmental isotopes (for example, hydrogen obtained from animal tissue) and rescaling functions (a statistical approach to modeling the relationship between variables) to assign individual birds or bats to their place of origin. The team applied this approach to feathers from 411 individuals of 12 species killed at wind facilities and 515 individuals of 19 species killed at solar facilities. From 24 percent to 100 percent (mean +/- SD = 49 percent +/- 33 percent) and 25 percent to 100 percent (73 percent +/- 25 percent) of birds grew feathers at a location outside the collection site at wind and solar facilities, respectively. Third, the authors constructed Bayesian integrated population models (probability models) for 29 focal species affected by wind or solar energy generation in California. Species predominantly local in origin generally had lower population growth rates than did species that were predominantly nonlocal in origin. These patterns illustrate the complex linkages between behavioral ecology, vulnerability to mortality, and population-level impacts to wildlife from fatalities at renewable energy facilities. This project benefits the renewable energy sector by providing a framework and specific tools for understanding environmental impacts of renewable energy generation.

California↗

Composition and variation of noise recorded at the Yellowknife Seismic Array, 1991-2007

We analyze seismic noise recorded on the 18 short-period, vertical component seismometers of the Yellowknife Seismic Array (YKA). YKA has an aperture of 23 km and is sited on cratonic lithosphere in an area with low cultural noise. These properties make it ideal for studying natural seismic noise at periods of 1-3 s. We calculated frequency-wave number spectra in this band for over 6,000 time windows that were extracted once per day for 17 years (1991-2007). Slowness analysis reveals a rich variety of seismic phases originating from distinct source regions: R g waves from the Great Slave Lake; L g waves from the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic Oceans; and teleseismic P waves from the north Pacific and equatorial mid-Atlantic regions. The surface wave energy is generated along coastlines, while the body wave energy is generated at least in part in deep-water, pelagic regions. Surface waves tend to dominate at the longer periods and, just as in earthquake seismograms, L g is the most prominent arrival. Although the periods we study are slightly shorter than the classic double-frequency microseismic band of 4-10 s, the noise at YKA has clear seasonal behavior that is consistent with the ocean wave climate in the Northern Hemisphere. The temporal variation of most of the noise sources can be well fit using just two Fourier components: yearly and biyearly terms that combine to give a fast rise in microseismic power from mid-June through mid-October, followed by a gradual decline. The exception is the R g energy from the Great Slave Lake, which shows a sharp drop in noise power over a 2-week period in November as the lake freezes. The L g noise from the east has a small but statistically significant positive slope, perhaps implying increased ocean wave activity in the North Atlantic over the last 17 years. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Odor-conditioned rheotaxis of the sea lamprey: Modeling, analysis and validation

Mechanisms for orienting toward and locating an odor source are sought in both biology and engineering. Chemical ecology studies have demonstrated that adult female sea lamprey show rheotaxis in response to a male pheromone with dichotomous outcomes: sexually mature females locate the source of the pheromone whereas immature females swim by the source and continue moving upstream. Here we introduce a simple switching mechanism modeled after odor-conditioned rheotaxis for the sea lamprey as they search for the source of a pheromone in a one-dimensional riverine environment. In this strategy, the females move upstream only if they detect that the pheromone concentration is higher than a threshold value and drifts down (by turning off control action to save energy) otherwise. In addition, we propose various uncertainty models such as measurement noise, actuator disturbance, and a probabilistic model of a concentration field in turbulent flow. Based on the proposed model with uncertainties, a convergence analysis showed that with this simplistic switching mechanism, the lamprey converges to the source location on average in spite of all such uncertainties. Furthermore, a slightly modified model and its extensive simulation results explain the behaviors of immature female lamprey near the source location.

Bioinspiration and Biomimetics↗

A decade of curtailment studies demonstrates a consistent and effective strategy to reduce bat fatalities at wind turbines in North America

There is a rapid, global push for wind energy installation. However, large numbers of bats are killed by turbines each year, raising concerns about the impacts of wind energy expansion on bat populations. Preventing turbine blades from spinning at low wind speeds, referred to as curtailment, is a method to reduce bat fatalities, but drawing consistent inference across studies has been challenging. We compiled publicly available studies that evaluated curtailment at six wind energy facilities in North America across 10 years. We used meta-regression of 29 implemented treatments to determine fatality reduction efficacy as well as sources of variation influencing efficacy. We also estimated species-specific fatality reduction for three species that comprise most fatalities in North America: hoary bat ( Lasiurus cinereus ), eastern red bat ( Lasiurus borealis ) and silver-haired bat ( Lasionycteris noctivagans ). We found that curtailment reduced total bat fatalities by 33% with every 1.0 ms −1 increase in curtailment wind speed. Estimates of the efficacy for the three target species were similar (hoary bats: 28% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 0.4%–48%, eastern red bats: 32% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 13%–47% and silver-haired bats: 32% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 3%–53%). Across multiple facilities and years, a 5.0 ms −1 cut-in speed was estimated to reduce total bat fatalities by an average of 62% (95% CI: 54%–69%). Mortality reductions at individual facilities in any given year were estimated to fall between 33%–79% (95% prediction interval). Inter-annual differences rather than inter-site or turbine characteristics accounted for most of the variation in efficacy rates. Species-specific average mortality reduction at 5.0 ms −1 curtailment wind speed was 48% (95% CI: 24%–64%) for hoary bats, 61% (95% CI: 42%–74%) for eastern red bats and 52% (95% CI: 30%–66%) for silver-haired bats. Practical implication . curtailment reduced bat mortality at wind turbines in this North American study. Efficacy increased proportionally as curtailment speed is raised, and patterns and rates of efficacy were similar across species. This indicates that curtailment is an effective strategy to reduce bat fatalities at wind energy facilities, but exploration of further refinements could both minimize bat mortality and maximize energy production.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗

Water gun vs air gun: A comparison

The water gun is a relatively new marine seismic sound source that produces an acoustic signal by an implosive rather than explosive mechanism. A comparison of the source characteristics of two different-sized water guns with those of conventional air guns shows the the water gun signature is cleaner and much shorter than that of a comparable-sized air gun: about 60-100 milliseconds (ms) for an 80-in3. (1.31-liter (I)) water gun compared with several hundred ms for an 80-in3. (1.31-1) air gun. The source spectra of water guns are richer in high frequencies (>200 Hz) than are those of air guns, but they also have less energy than those of air guns at low frequencies. A comparison between water gun and air gun reflection profiles in both shallow (Long Island Sound)-and deep (western Bermuda Rise)-water settings suggests that the water gun offers a good compromise between very high resolution, limited penetration systems (e.g. 3.5-kHz profilers and sparkers) and the large volume air guns and tuned air gun arrays generally used where significant penetration is required. ?? 1984 D. Reidel Publishing Company.

Marine Geophysical Research↗

The impact of source time function complexity on stress drop estimates

Earthquake stress drop—a key parameter for describing the energetics of earthquake rupture—can be estimated in several different, but theoretically equivalent, ways. However, independent estimates for the same earthquakes sometimes differ significantly. We find that earthquake source complexity plays a significant role in why theoretically (for simple rupture models) equivalent methods produce different estimates. We apply time‐ and frequency‐domain methods to estimate stress drops for real earthquakes in the SCARDEC (Seismic source ChAracteristics Retrieved from DEConvolving teleseismic body waves, Vallée and Douet, 2016 ) source time function (STF) database and analyze how rupture complexity drives stress‐drop estimate discrepancies. Specifically, we identify two complexity metrics—Brune relative energy (BRE) and spectral decay—that parameterize an earthquake’s complexity relative to the standard Brune model and strongly correlate with the estimate discrepancies. We find that the observed systematic magnitude–stress‐drop trends may reflect underlying changes in STF complexity, not necessarily trends in actual stress drop. Both the decay and BRE parameters vary systematically with magnitude, but whether this magnitude–complexity relationship is real remains unresolved.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Ungulate migrations of the Western United States, volume 4

Broadly distributed across the Western United States, ungulates (hooved mammals) play an important role in ecosystem function by affecting vegetation communities and forming the prey base for large carnivores. Additionally, ungulates provide economic benefits to regional communities through tourism and hunting and hold cultural significance for many Tribal communities. Many ungulates migrate seasonally between distinct summer and winter ranges to take advantage of spatially and temporally variable food sources and avoid threats such as predators and deep snow. Increasingly, these migrations are threatened by the growing human footprint and associated subdivisions, energy development, and increased traffic volume. Efforts to study ungulate populations and conserve their migrations received support in recent years from the U.S. Department of the Interior Secretarial Order No. 3362, which provided Federal support for enhancing habitat quality for ungulates across the Western States. In response to Secretarial Order No. 3362, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) established the Corridor Mapping Team, a collaboration among USGS and participating State and Federal wildlife management agencies and numerous Tribal Nations. Together, the Corridor Mapping Team maps ungulate migrations throughout the Western United States in the USGS “Ungulate Migrations of the Western United States” report series. This report (volume 4) details migrations and seasonal ranges from 31 new herds throughout nine Western States. Additionally, this report includes updates to two herds published in previous reports. Including this report, the report series has provided the mapped migrations and seasonal ranges of 182 unique herds and has provided a map-based inventory of the documented ungulate migrations across the Western United States for biologists, managers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners. This report also discusses how the mapping efforts associated with the Corridor Mapping Team can be used to guide management and policy regarding renewable energy development and ungulate disease, specifically chronic wasting disease, in the Western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada,↗

Frequency-dependent effects of rupture for the 2004 Parkfield mainshock, results from UPSAR

The frequency-dependent effects of rupture propagation of the Parkfield, California earthquake (Sept. 28, 2004, M6) to the northwest along the San Andreas fault can be seen in acceleration records at UPSAR (USGS Parkfield Seismic Array) in at least two ways. First, we can see the effects of directivity in the acceleration traces at UPSAR, which is about 11.5 km from the epicenter. Directivity or the seismic equivalent of a Doppler shift has been documented in many cases by comparing short duration, high-amplitude pulses (P or S) in the forward direction with longer duration body waves in the backward direction. In this case we detect a change from a relatively large amplitude, coherent, high-frequency signal at the start of rupture to a low-amplitude, low-coherent, low-frequency signal at about the time the rupture front transfers from the forward azimuth to the back azimuth at about 34-36 s (time is UTC and are the seconds after day 272 and 17 hours and 15 minutes. S arrival is just after 30s) for rays leaving the fault and propagating to UPSAR. The frequency change is obvious in the band about 5 to 30 Hz, which is significantly above the corner frequency of the earthquake (about 0.11Hz). From kinematic source models, the duration of faulting is about 9.2 s and the change in frequency is during faulting as the rupture extends to the northwest. Understanding the systematic change in frequency and amplitude of seismic waves in relation to the propagation of the rupture front is important for predicting strong ground motion. Second, we can filter the acceleration records from the array to determine if the low frequency energy emerges from the same part of the fault as the high frequency signal (e.g. has the same back azimuth and apparent velocity at UPSAR) an important clue to the dynamics of rupture. Analysis of sources of strong motion (characterized by relatively high frequencies) compared to kinematic slip models (relatively low frequency) for the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake as well as Maule (Feb. 27, 2010) and Chi-Chi (Sept. 20, 1999) earthquakes show that high- and low-frequency sources do not have the same locations on the fault. In this paper we filter the accelerograms from UPSAR for the 2004 mainshock in various passbands and then re-compute the cross correlations to determine the vector slowness of the incoming waves. At Parkfield, it appears that for seismic waves with frequencies above 1 Hz there is no discernible frequency-dependent difference in source position (up to 8 Hz) based on estimates of back azimuth and apparent velocity. However at lower frequencies, sources appear to be from shallower depths and trail the high frequencies as the rupture proceeds down the fault. This result is greater than one standard deviation of an estimate of error, based on a new method of estimating error that is a measure of how broad the peak in correlation is and an estimate of the variance of the correlation values. These observations can be understood in terms of a rupture front that is more energetic and coherent near the front of rupture (radiating higher frequencies) and less coherent and less energetic (radiating in a lower frequency band) behind the initial rupture front. This result is a qualitative assessment of changes in azimuth and apparent velocity with frequency and time and does not include corrections to find the source location on the fault.

California↗

Arsenic, iron, lead, manganese, and uranium concentrations in private bedrock wells in southeastern New Hampshire, 2012-2013

Trace metals, such as arsenic, iron, lead, manganese, and uranium, in groundwater used for drinking have long been a concern because of the potential adverse effects on human health and the aesthetic or nuisance problems that some present. Moderate to high concentrations of the trace metal arsenic have been identified in drinking water from groundwater sources in southeastern New Hampshire, a rapidly growing region of the State (Montgomery and others, 2003). During the past decade (2000–10), southeastern New Hampshire, which is composed of Hillsborough, Rockingham, and Strafford Counties, has grown in population by nearly 48,700 (or 6.4 percent) to 819,100. These three counties contain 62 percent of the State’s population but encompass only about 22 percent of the land area (New Hampshire Office of Energy and Planning, 2011). According to a 2005 water-use study (Hayes and Horn, 2009), about 39 percent of the population in these three counties in southeastern New Hampshire uses private wells as sources of drinking water, and these wells are not required by the State to be routinely tested for trace metals or other contaminants. Some trace metals have associated human-health benchmarks or nonhealth guidelines that have been established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to regulate public water supplies. The EPA has established a maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 10 micrograms per liter (μg/L) for arsenic (As) and a MCL of 30 μg/L for uranium (U) because of associated health risks (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2012). Iron (Fe) and manganese (Mn) are essential for human health, but Mn at high doses may have adverse cognitive effects in children (Bouchard and others, 2011; Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, 2012); therefore, the EPA has issued a lifetime health advisory (LHA) of 300 μg/L for Mn. Recommended secondary maximum contaminant levels (SMCLs) for Fe (300 μg/L) and Mn (50 μg/L) were established primarily as nonhealth guidelines—based on aesthetic considerations, such as taste or the staining of laundry and plumbing fixtures—because these contaminants, at the SMCLs, are not considered to present risks to human health. Because lead (Pb) contamination of drinking water typically results from corrosion of plumbing materials belonging to water-system customers but still poses a risk to human health, the EPA established an action level (AL) of 15 μg/L for Pb instead of an MCL or SMCL (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2012). The 15-μg/L AL for Pb has been adopted by the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services for public water systems, and if exceeded, the public water system must inform their customers and undertake additional actions to control corrosion in the pipes of the distribution system (New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services, 2013). Unlike the quality of drinking water provided by public water suppliers, the quality of drinking water obtained from private wells in New Hampshire is not regulated; consequently, private wells are sampled only when individual well owners voluntarily choose to sample them. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the EPA New England, conducted an assessment in 2012–13 to provide private well owners and State and Federal health officials with information on the distribution of trace-metal (As, Fe, Pb, Mn, and U) concentrations in groundwater from bedrock aquifers in the three counties of southeastern New Hampshire. This fact sheet analyzes data from water samples collected by a randomly selected group of private well owners from the three-county study area and describes the major findings for trace-metal concentrations.

New Hampshire↗

Assessing local population vulnerability to wind energy development with branching process models: an application to wind energy development

Quantifying the impact of anthropogenic development on local populations is important for conservation biology and wildlife management. However, these local populations are often subject to demographic stochasticity because of their small population size. Traditional modeling efforts such as population projection matrices do not consider this source of variation whereas individual-based models, which include demographic stochasticity, are computationally intense and lack analytical tractability. One compromise between approaches is branching process models because they accommodate demographic stochasticity and are easily calculated. These models are known within some sub-fields of probability and mathematical ecology but are not often applied in conservation biology and applied ecology. We applied branching process models to quantitatively compare and prioritize species locally vulnerable to the development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, we examined species vulnerability using branching process models for four representative species: A cave bat (a long-lived, low fecundity species), a tree bat (short-lived, moderate fecundity species), a grassland songbird (a short-lived, high fecundity species), and an eagle (a long-lived, slow maturation species). Wind turbine-induced mortality has been observed for all of these species types, raising conservation concerns. We simulated different mortality rates from wind farms while calculating local extinction probabilities. The longer-lived species types (e.g., cave bats and eagles) had much more pronounced transitions from low extinction risk to high extinction risk than short-lived species types (e.g., tree bats and grassland songbirds). High-offspring-producing species types had a much greater variability in baseline risk of extinction than the lower-offspring-producing species types. Long-lived species types may appear stable until a critical level of incidental mortality occurs. After this threshold, the risk of extirpation for a local population may rapidly increase with only minimal increases in wind mortality. Conservation biologists and wildlife managers may need to consider this mortality pattern when issuing take permits and developing monitoring protocols for wind facilities. We also describe how our branching process models may be generalized across a wider range of species for a larger assessment project and then describe how our methods may be applied to other stressors in addition to wind.

Ecosphere↗

Moments, magnitudes, and radiated energies of non-volcanic tremor near Cholame, CA, from ground motion spectra at UPSAR

By averaging the spectra of events within two episodes of tremor (on Jan. 21 and 24, 2005) across the 12 stations of UPSAR, we improved the S/N sufficiently to define source spectra. Analysis of eleven impulsive events revealed attenuation-corrected spectra of displacement similar to those of earthquakes, with a low-frequency plateau, a corner frequency, and a high frequency decay proportional to f −2 . Seismic moments, M 0 , estimated from these spectra range from about 3 to 10 × 10 11 N-m or moment magnitudes in the range 1.6 to 1.9. The corner frequencies range from 2.6 to 7.2 Hz and, if interpreted in the same way as for earthquakes, indicate low stress drops that vary from 0.001 to 0.04 MPa. Seismic energies, estimated from the ground motion spectra, vary from 0.2 × 10 5 to 4.4 × 10 5 J, or apparent stresses in the range 0.002 to 0.02 MPa. The low stress parameters are consistent with a weak fault zone in the lower crust at the depth of tremor. In contrast, the same analysis on a micro-earthquake, located near Cholame (depth = 10.3 km), revealed a stress drop of 0.5 MPa and an apparent stress of 0.02 MPa. Residual spectra from ω −2 model fits to the displacement spectra of the non-volcanic tremor events show peaks near 4 Hz that are not apparent in the spectra for the microearthquake nor for the spectrum of earth noise. These spectral peaks may indicate that tremor entails more than shear failure reminiscent of mechanisms, possibly entailing fluid flow, associated with volcanic tremor or deep volcanic earthquakes.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Sustained long-period seismicity at Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska

From September 1999 through April 2004, Shishaldin Volcano, Aleutian Islands, Alaska, exhibited a continuous and extremely high level of background seismicity. This activity consisted of many hundreds to thousands of long-period (LP; 1–2 Hz) earthquakes per day, recorded by a 6-station monitoring network around Shishaldin. The LP events originate beneath the summit at shallow depths (0–3 km). Volcano tectonic events and tremor have rarely been observed in the summit region. Such a high rate of LP events with no eruption suggests that a steady state process has been occurring ever since Shishaldin last erupted in April–May 1999. Following the eruption, the only other signs of volcanic unrest have been occasional weak thermal anomalies and an omnipresent puffing volcanic plume. The LP waveforms are nearly identical for time spans of days to months, but vary over longer time scales. The observations imply that the spatially close source processes are repeating, stable and non-destructive. Event sizes vary, but the rate of occurrence remains roughly constant. The events range from magnitude ∼0.1 to 1.8, with most events having magnitudes <1.0. The observations suggest that the conduit system is open and capable of releasing a large amount of energy, approximately equivalent to at least one magnitude 1.8–2.6 earthquake per day. The rate of observed puffs (1 per minute) in the steam plume is similar to the typical seismic rates, suggesting that the LP events are directly related to degassing processes. However, the source mechanism, capable of producing one LP event about every 0.5–5 min, is still poorly understood. Shishaldin's seismicity is unusual in its sustained high rate of LP events without accompanying eruptive activity. Every indication is that the high rate of seismicity will continue without reflecting a hazardous state. Sealing of the conduit and/or change in gas flux, however, would be expected to change Shishaldin's behavior.

Alaska↗