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Results for “Ecology Movement”

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At least 487 records · Page 27Linked to original sources

USGS2008

A hierarchical model for spatial capture-recapture data

Estimating density is a fundamental objective of many animal population studies. Application of methods for estimating population size from ostensibly closed populations is widespread, but ineffective for estimating absolute density because most populations are subject to short-term movements or so-called temporary emigration. This phenomenon invalidates the resulting estimates because the effective sample area is unknown. A number of methods involving the adjustment of estimates based on heuristic considerations are in widespread use. In this paper, a hierarchical model of spatially indexed capture recapture data is proposed for sampling based on area searches of spatial sample units subject to uniform sampling intensity. The hierarchical model contains explicit models for the distribution of individuals and their movements, in addition to an observation model that is conditional on the location of individuals during sampling. Bayesian analysis of the hierarchical model is achieved by the use of data augmentation, which allows for a straightforward implementation in the freely available software WinBUGS. We present results of a simulation study that was carried out to evaluate the operating characteristics of the Bayesian estimator under variable densities and movement patterns of individuals. An application of the model is presented for survey data on the flat-tailed horned lizard (Phrynosoma mcallii) in Arizona, USA.

Ecology↗

USGS2022

Can we avert an Amazon tipping point? The economic and environmental costs

The Amazon biome is being pushed by unsustainable economic drivers towards an ecological tipping point where restoration to its previous state may no longer be possible. This degradation is the result of self-reinforcing interactions between deforestation, climate change and fire. We assess the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts and trade-offs of scenarios representing movement towards an Amazon tipping point and strategies to avert one using the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform linked with spatial land use-land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEM + ESM). Our approach provides the first approximation of the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of a tipping point, and evidence to build the economic case for strategies to avert it. For the five Amazon focal countries, namely, Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Bolivia and Ecuador, we find that a tipping point would create economic losses of US$256.6 billion in cumulative gross domestic product by 2050. Policies that would contribute to averting a tipping point, including strongly reducing deforestation, investing in intensifying agriculture in cleared lands, climate-adapted agriculture and improving fire management, would generate approximately US$339.3 billion in additional wealth and a return on investment of US$29.5 billion. Quantifying the costs, benefits and trade-offs of policies to avert a tipping point in a transparent and replicable manner can support the design of regional development strategies for the Amazon biome, build the business case for action and catalyze global cooperation and financing to enable policy implementation.

Amazon↗

USGS2024

Ecology of an insular snake assemblage in coastal Maine

Wildlife populations at the peripheries of their distributions or on isolated islands often display divergent and poorly understood morphological or life-history characteristics compared to core populations. We used a capture–mark–recapture dataset collected over a 19-year period to characterize a northern, insular snake assemblage in coastal Maine. We captured 611 individual snakes of 4 species ( Thamnophis sirtalis [Common Gartersnake; n = 221 individuals], Diadophis punctatus [Ring-necked Snake; n = 258 individuals], Storeria occipitomaculata [Red-bellied Snake; n = 81 individuals], and Opheodrys vernalis [Smooth Greensnake; n = 51 individuals]) and recorded 104 recaptures. We provide some of the first data on growth, reproduction, and movement for these species in northern New England, expanding our understanding of insular and northern snake populations. Specifically, we found that Common Gartersnakes fed primarily on earthworms and amphibians and grew rapidly, in accordance with mainland populations, but exhibited smaller size at maturity and average litter sizes. We captured an unusually large number of Ring-necked Snakes, which are uncommon elsewhere in Maine, and recorded an apparently localized nesting area for this species, as well as relatively long-distance (230–300 m) dispersal away from that location. In our population, female Ring-necked Snakes mature in their third year, and this species exhibits weak sexual size dimorphism (SSD). We found the ecology of Red-bellied Snakes at our study site to be similar to other populations, with individuals feeding on slugs, and females maturing in their second year; however, our population exhibited the strongest pattern of (female-biased) SSD. Smooth Greensnakes were restricted to the most extensive old-field habitat within our study site and fed on a variety of arthropods. We confirmed communal nesting and short incubation period for this species and provide among the first data on growth and longevity (at least 7 years) of this relatively understudied species.

Maine↗

USGS2016

Encounters with Pinyon-Juniper influence riskier movements in Greater Sage-Grouse across the Great Basin

Fine-scale spatiotemporal studies can better identify relationships between individual survival and habitat fragmentation so that mechanistic interpretations can be made at the population level. Recent advances in Global Positioning System (GPS) technology and statistical models capable of deconstructing high-frequency location data have facilitated interpretation of animal movement within a behaviorally mechanistic framework. Habitat fragmentation due to singleleaf pinyon (Pinus monophylla; hereafter pinyon) and Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma; hereafter juniper) encroachment into sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) communities is a commonly implicated perturbation that can adversely influence greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse) demographic rates. Using an extensive GPS data set (233 birds and 282,954 locations) across 12 study sites within the Great Basin, we conducted a behavioral change point analysis and subsequently constructed Brownian bridge movement models from each behaviorally homogenous section. We found a positive relationship between modeled movement rate and probability of encountering pinyon-juniper with significant variation among age classes. The probability of encountering pinyon-juniper among adults was two and three times greater than that of yearlings and juveniles, respectively. However, the movement rate in response to the probability of encountering pinyon-juniper trees was 1.5 times greater for juveniles. We then assessed the risk of mortality associated with an interaction between movement rate and the probability of encountering pinyon-juniper using shared frailty models. During pinyon-juniper encounters, on average, juvenile, yearling, and adult birds experienced a 10.4%, 0.2%, and 0.3% reduction in annual survival probabilities. Populations that used pinyon-juniper habitats with a frequency ≥ 3.8 times the overall mean experienced decreases in annual survival probabilities of 71.1%, 0.9%, and 0.9%. This analytical framework identifies a likely behavioral mechanism behind how pinyon-juniper encroachment decreases habitat suitability for sage-grouse, whereby encountering pinyon-juniper stimulates faster yet riskier movements that may make sage-grouse more vulnerable to visually acute predators.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

USGS2018

Movers and stayers: Novel assemblages in changing environments

How species will respond to ongoing climate and other change is of increasing concern. Most attention is given to how species move or are moved, but many species stay. Understanding the dynamics of new species combinations is essential for successful conservation in a changing climate. Increased attention to species movement in response to environmental change highlights the need to consider changes in species distributions and altered biological assemblages. Such changes are well known from paleoecological studies, but have accelerated with ongoing pervasive human influence. In addition to species that move, some species will stay put, leading to an array of novel interactions. Species show a variety of responses that can allow movement or persistence. Conservation and restoration actions have traditionally focused on maintaining or returning species in particular places, but increasingly also include interventions that facilitate movement. Approaches are required that incorporate the fluidity of biotic assemblages into the goals set and interventions deployed.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2019

Satellite tracking of gulls and genomic characterization of fecal bacteria reveals environmentally mediated acquisition and dispersal of antimicrobial resistant Escherichia coli on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

Gulls (Larus spp.) have frequently been reported to carry Escherichia coli exhibiting antimicrobial resistance (AMR E. coli); however, the pathways governing the acquisition and dispersal of such bacteria are not well-described. We equipped 17 landfill-foraging gulls with satellite transmitters and collected gull fecal samples longitudinally from four locations on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska to assess: 1) gull attendance and transitions between sites, 2) spatiotemporal prevalence of fecally-shed AMR E. coli, and 3) genomic relatedness of AMR E. coli isolates among sites. We also sampled Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) harvested as part of personal-use dipnet fisheries at two sites to assess potential contamination with AMR E. coli. Among our study sites, marked gulls most commonly occupied the lower Kenai River (61% of site locations) followed by the Soldotna landfill (11%), lower Kasilof River (5%), and upper Kenai River (<1%). Gulls primarily moved between the Soldotna landfill and the lower Kenai River (94% of transitions among sites), which were also the two locations with the highest prevalence of AMR E. coli. There was relatively high spatial and temporal variability in AMR E. coli prevalence in gull feces and there was no evidence of contamination on salmon harvested in personal-use fisheries. We identified E. coli sequence types and AMR genes of clinical importance, with some isolates possessing genes associated with resistance to as many as eight antibiotic classes. Our findings suggest that gulls acquire AMR E. coli at habitats with anthropogenic inputs and subsequent movements may represent pathways through which AMR is dispersed.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Long‐term effects of low‐drop grade control structures on channel evolution in the Yazoo River Basin

Channel incision is a widespread problem, especially in river basins that have an extensive history of channel alterations. Because channel incision causes large ecological and economic consequences, the prevention of continued migration of headcuts, defined as a steep change in stream gradient over a short reach, has been the focus of many stream engineering projects. Low-drop grade control structures (GCS) are a type of structure installed to halt the upstream movement of a headcut and were widely installed in the rivers and streams of the Yazoo River Basin in northern Mississippi. The goal of this study was to evaluate the long-term effects of these structures 30+ years post installation. To assess GCS effects on channel morphology, stream cross-section surveys were used to calculate Bank Height Ratio, Width-to-Depth Ratio, and Entrenchment Ratio, while point estimates made along each transect were used to calculate the average sediment size distribution for each of 30 sites. Analyses revealed that the GCS were successful in checking channel incision moving headward in the streams: sites upstream of the GCS were less incised and had greater accumulations of fine substrates compared to sites downstream and sites on streams lacking erosion control structures. Given the widespread use of GCS, these results can inform efforts aimed at managing channel incision.

Mississippi↗

USGS2025

The effects of carnivory and herbivory on the energy balance of Arctic grizzly bears

Omnivores often face tradeoffs between selecting for spatially dispersed energy-dense vertebrate prey versus densely distributed herbivorous resources that have limited energetic value per unit intake. Arctic grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) are large omnivores within a resource-limited ecosystem that are known to exhibit smaller body masses and occur at lower densities than grizzly bears in other regions of North America. We evaluated the energy balance of Arctic grizzly bears during a portion of the fall hyperphagic period in two ecologically differing regions on Alaska’s northern Arctic coast by monitoring mass change, food intake, activity, and energy expenditure of 12 individuals over 17–22 days. Bears in coastal areas were more carnivorous than bears in the foothills that were predominantly herbivorous and frugivorous. Carnivory was associated with greater movement, body fat, and energy expenditure and two of four carnivorous bears lost mass. Overall, the mean body fat of the bears in this study was 34% lower than other grizzly bear populations in North America in the fall. Furthermore, the bears in this study exhibited relatively small changes in body mass (x̄ = 3%, range =−2 to 11%) that were 60% lower than other grizzly bear populations which typically gain substantial mass in the fall in preparation for denning. Our results, while representing a snapshot from a small number of bears during the fall hyperphagic period, are consistent with previous studies and indicate limited availability of energy-dense food resources during this time for grizzly bears in this region of the Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

The Impacts of flow alterations to crayfishes in Southeastern Oklahoma, with an emphasis on the mena crayfish (orconectes menae)

Human activities can alter the environment to the point that it is unsuitable to the native species resulting in a loss of biodiversity. Ecologists understand the importance of biodiversity and the conservation of vulnerable species. Species that are narrowly endemic are considered to be particularly vulnerable because they often use specific habitats that are highly susceptible to human disturbance. The basic components of species conservation are 1) delineation of the spatial distribution of the species, 2) understanding how the species interacts with its environment, and 3) employing management strategies based on the ecology of the species. In this study, we investigated several crayfish species endemic to the Ouachita Mountains in Oklahoma and Arkansas. We established the spatial distributions (i.e., range) of the crayfish using Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling. We then investigated crayfish habitat use with quantitative sampling and a paired movement study. Finally, we evaluated the ability of crayfish to burrow under different environmental conditions in a controlled laboratory setting. Crayfish distribution at the landscape scale was largely driven by climate, geology and elevation. In general, the endemic crayfish in this study occurred above 300-m elevation where the geology was dominated by sandstone and shale, and rainfall totals were the highest compared to the rest of the study region. Our quantitative data indicated crayfish did not select for specific habitat types at the reach scale; however, crayfish appeared to continue to use shallow and dry habitat even as the streams dried. Movement by passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagged crayfish was highly variable but crayfish tended to burrow in response to drought rather than migrate to wet habitat. Controlled laboratory experiments revealed smaller substrate size (pebble) restricted crayfish burrowing more than larger substrates (cobble). We also found excess fine sediment restricted crayfish burrowing regardless of dominant substrate size. Our results suggest climate change and sedimentation resulting from land-use practices, combined with increased water withdrawals have the potential to alter crayfish distributions and affect persistence of some crayfish populations.

Report↗

USGS2021

Assessing the robustness of time-to-event models for estimating unmarked wildlife abundance using remote cameras

Recently developed methods, including time-to-event and space-to-event models, estimate the abundance of unmarked populations from encounter rates with camera trap arrays, addressing a gap in noninvasive wildlife monitoring. However, estimating abundance from encounter rates relies on assumptions that can be difficult to meet in the field, including random movement, population closure, and an accurate estimate of movement speed. Understanding how these models respond to violation of these assumptions will assist in making them more applicable in real-world settings. We used simulated walk models to test the effects of violating the assumptions of the time-to-event model under four scenarios: (1) incorrectly estimating movement speed, (2) violating closure, (3) individuals moving within simplified territories (i.e., movement restricted to partially overlapping circles), (4) and individuals clustering in preferred habitat. The time-to-event model was robust to closure violations, territoriality, and clustering when cameras were placed randomly. However, the model failed to estimate abundance accurately when movement speed was incorrectly estimated or cameras were placed nonrandomly with respect to habitat. We show that the time-to-event model can provide unbiased estimates of abundance when some assumptions that are commonly violated in wildlife studies are not met. Having a robust method for estimating the abundance of unmarked populations with remote cameras will allow practitioners to monitor a more diverse array of populations noninvasively. With the time-to-event model, placing cameras randomly with respect to animal movement and accurately estimating movement speed allows unbiased estimation of abundance. The model is robust to violating the other assumptions we tested.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2022

Stochastic agent-based model for predicting turbine-scale raptor movements during updraft-subsidized directional flights

Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has highlighted the need to better understand turbine-caused avian mortality. The risk to golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) is of particular concern due to their small population size and conservation status. Golden eagles subsidize their flight in part by soaring in orographic updrafts, which can place them in conflict with wind turbines utilizing the same low-altitude wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors in varying atmospheric conditions can therefore be relevant to predicting and mitigating their risk of collision. We present a predictive movement model that simulates individual paths of golden eagles during directional flight (such as migration) that is subsidized by orographic updraft. We modeled eagles in a 50 km by 50 km study area in Wyoming containing three wind power plants with documented golden eagle collisions with turbines. The movement model is applicable to any region where ground elevation is known at turbine scale ( < "> < 50 m) and wind conditions are known at facility scale ( < "> < 3 km). For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates movements of thousands of orographic soaring eagles to produce a density map quantifying the relative probability of eagle presence. We validated the simulated tracks with GPS telemetry data showing four directional tracks made by golden eagles transiting through the area in 2019 and 2020. For each eagle track, validation was performed using the ratio of the model-simulated eagle presence likelihood with uniform eagle presence and the presence computed using directed random-walk movements. We found that the predictive performance of the model was significantly better (likelihood ratio > "> > 1) for low-altitude movements than high-altitude movements that can involve thermal-soaring. We employed the model to produce seasonal presence maps for migrating golden eagles. We found significant turbine-level variations in eagle presence between northerly and southerly migration routes through the study area. Overall, the proposed model offers a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool to assist wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers, and industry consultants in estimating the potential for conflict between soaring birds and wind turbines, thereby reducing the need for site-specific data on golden eagle movements.

Wyoming↗

USGS2003

Modeling white sturgeon movement in a reservoir: The effect of water quality and sturgeon density

We developed a movement model to examine the distribution and survival of white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) in a reservoir subject to large spatial and temporal variation in dissolved oxygen and temperature. Temperature and dissolved oxygen were simulated by a CE-QUAL-W2 model of Brownlee Reservoir, Idaho for a typical wet, normal, and dry hydrologic year. We compared current water quality conditions to scenarios with reduced nutrient inputs to the reservoir. White sturgeon habitat quality was modeled as a function of temperature, dissolved oxygen and, in some cases, suitability for foraging and depth. We assigned a quality index to each cell along the bottom of the reservoir. The model simulated two aspects of daily movement. Advective movement simulated the tendency for animals to move toward areas with high habitat quality, and diffusion simulated density dependent movement away from areas with high sturgeon density in areas with non-lethal habitat conditions. Mortality resulted when sturgeon were unable to leave areas with lethal temperature or dissolved oxygen conditions. Water quality was highest in winter and early spring and lowest in mid to late summer. Limiting nutrient inputs reduced the area of Brownlee Reservoir with lethal conditions for sturgeon and raised the average habitat suitability throughout the reservoir. Without movement, simulated white sturgeon survival ranged between 45 and 89%. Allowing movement raised the predicted survival of sturgeon under all conditions to above 90% as sturgeon avoided areas with low habitat quality. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2012

Gene flow and pathogen transmission among bobcats (Lynx rufus) in a fragmented urban landscape

Urbanization can result in the fragmentation of once contiguous natural landscapes into a patchy habitat interspersed within a growing urban matrix. Animals living in fragmented landscapes often have reduced movement among habitat patches because of avoidance of intervening human development, which potentially leads to both reduced gene flow and pathogen transmission between patches. Mammalian carnivores with large home ranges, such as bobcats (Lynx rufus), may be particularly sensitive to habitat fragmentation. We performed genetic analyses on bobcats and their directly transmitted viral pathogen, feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV), to investigate the effects of urbanization on bobcat movement. We predicted that urban development, including major freeways, would limit bobcat movement and result in genetically structured host and pathogen populations. We analysed molecular markers from 106 bobcats and 19 FIV isolates from seropositive animals in urban southern California. Our findings indicate that reduced gene flow between two primary habitat patches has resulted in genetically distinct bobcat subpopulations separated by urban development including a major highway. However, the distribution of genetic diversity among FIV isolates determined through phylogenetic analyses indicates that pathogen genotypes are less spatially structured--exhibiting a more even distribution between habitat fragments. We conclude that the types of movement and contact sufficient for disease transmission occur with enough frequency to preclude structuring among the viral population, but that the bobcat population is structured owing to low levels of effective bobcat migration resulting in gene flow. We illustrate the utility in using multiple molecular markers that differentially detect movement and gene flow between subpopulations when assessing connectivity.

California↗

USGS2019

The future of recreational fisheries: Advances in science, monitoring, management, and practice

Recreational fisheries (RF) are complex social-ecological systems that play an important role in aquatic environments while generating significant social and economic benefits around the world. The nature of RF is diverse and rapidly evolving, including the participants, their priorities and behaviors, and the related ecological impacts and social and economic benefits. RF can lead to negative ecological impacts, particularly through overexploitation of fish populations and spread of non-native species and genotypes through stocking. Hence, careful management and monitoring of RF is essential to sustain these ecologically and socioeconomically important resources. This special issue on recreational fisheries contains diverse research, syntheses, and perspectives that highlight the advances being made in RF research, monitoring, management, and practice, which we summarize here. Co-management actions are rising, often involving diverse interest groups including government and non-government organizations; applying collaborative management practices can help balance social and economic benefits with conservation targets. Technological and methodological advances are improving the ability to monitor biological, social, and economic dynamics of RF, which underpin the ability to maximize RF benefits through management actions. To ensure RF sustainability, much research focuses on the ecological aspects of RF, as well as the development of management and angling practices that reduce negative impacts on fish populations. For example, angler behavior can be influenced to conform to conservation-minded angling practices through regulations, but is often best accomplished through growing bottom-up social change movements. Anglers can also play an important role in fisheries monitoring and conservation, including providing data on fish abundance and assemblages (i.e., citizen science). The increasing impacts that growing human populations are having on the global environment are threatening many of the natural resources and ecosystem services they provide, including valuable RF. However, with careful development of research initiatives, monitoring and management, sustainable RF can generate positive outcomes for both society and natural ecosystems and help solve allocation conflicts with commercial fisheries and conservation.

Fisheries Research↗

USGS2024

Snow avalanches are a primary climate-linked driver of mountain ungulate populations

Snow is a major, climate-sensitive feature of the Earth’s surface and catalyst of fundamentally important ecosystem processes. Understanding how snow influences sentinel species in rapidly changing mountain ecosystems is particularly critical. Whereas effects of snow on food availability, energy expenditure, and predation are well documented, we report how avalanches exert major impacts on an ecologically significant mountain ungulate - the coastal Alaskan mountain goat ( Oreamnos americanus ). Using long-term GPS data and field observations across four populations (421 individuals over 17 years), we show that avalanches caused 23−65% of all mortality, depending on area. Deaths varied seasonally and were directly linked to spatial movement patterns and avalanche terrain use. Population-level avalanche mortality, 61% of which comprised reproductively important prime-aged individuals, averaged 8% annually and exceeded 22% when avalanche conditions were severe. Our findings reveal a widespread but previously undescribed pathway by which snow can elicit major population-level impacts and shape demographic characteristics of slow-growing populations of mountain-adapted animals.

Alaska↗

USGS2002

Distribution and movements of female northern pintails radiotagged in San Joaquin Valley, California

To improve understanding of northern pintail (Anas acuta) distribution in central California (CCA), we radiotagged 191 Hatch-Year (HY) and 228 After-Hatch-Year (AHY) female northern pintails during late August-early October, 1991-1993, in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and studied their movements through March each year. Nearly all (94.3%) wintered in CCA, but 5.7% went to southern California, Mexico, or unknown areas; all that went south left before hunting season. Of the 395 radiotagged pintails that wintered in CCA, 83% flew from the SJV north to other CCA areas (i.e., Sacramento Valley [SACV], Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta [Delta], Suisun Marsh, San Francisco Bay) during September-January; most went during December. Movements coincid- ed with start of hunting seasons and were related to pintail age, mass, capture location, study year, and weather. Among pintails with less than average mass, AHY individuals tended to leave the SJV earlier than HY individuals. Weekly distribution was similar among capture locations and years but a greater percentage of pintails radiotagged in Tulare Basin (south part of SJV) were known to have (10.3% vs. 0.9%) or probably (13.8% vs. 4.6%) wintered south of CCA than pintails radiotagged in northern SJV areas (i.e., Grassland Ecological Area [EA] and Mendota Wildlife Area [WA]). Also, a greater percentage of SJV pintails went to other CCA areas before hunting season in the drought year of 1991-1992 than later years (10% vs. 3-5%). The percent of radiotagged pintails from Grass- land EA known to have gone south of CCA also was greater during 1991-1992 than later years (2% vs. 0%), but both the known (19% vs. 4%) and probable (23% vs. 12%) percent from Tulare Basin that went south was greatest during 1993-1994, when availability of flooded fields there was lowest. The probability of pintails leaving the SJV was 57% (95% CI = 8-127%) greater on days with than without rain, and more movements per bird out of SJV occurred in years with more rain and fog but fewer days with southerly winds. Movements by pintails and changes in pintail distributions, direct recovery distributions, and harvest rates suggest the disproportionate decline of pin- tails in Tulare Basin was due to a lower percentage of pintails moving there in fall and a greater percentage or ear- lier movements north and south out of Tulare Basin. With fewer in Tulare Basin to replace Grasslands EA pintails going north in December, pintail abundance in the northern SJV declined during late winter. Changes in move- ment patterns correspond to habitat loss in Tulare Basin and increased habitats in SACV and western mainland Mexico. Habitat improvements, especially in Tulare Basin, that increase food, sanctuary, and winter survival would probably help restore pintails throughout the SJV.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2016

How will predicted land-use change affect waterfowl spring stopover ecology? Inferences from an individual-based model

Habitat loss, habitat fragmentation, overexploitation and climate change pose familiar and new challenges to conserving natural populations throughout the world. One approach conservation planners may use to evaluate the effects of these challenges on wildlife populations is scenario planning. We developed an individual-based model to evaluate the effects of future land use and land cover changes on spring-migrating dabbling ducks in North America. We assessed the effects of three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) on dabbling duck stopover duration, movement distances and mortality. We specifically focused on migration stopover duration because previous research has demonstrated that individuals arriving earlier on the nesting grounds exhibit increased reproductive fitness. Compared to present conditions, all three scenarios increased stopover duration and movement distances of agent ducks. Although all three scenarios presented migrating ducks with increased amounts of wetland habitat, scenarios also contained substantially less cropland, which decreased overall carrying capacity of the study area. Synthesis and applications . Land-use change may increase waterfowl spring migration stopover duration in the midcontinent region of North America due to reduced landscape energetic carrying capacity. Climate change will alter spatial patterns of crop distributions with corn and rice production areas shifting to different regions. Thus, conservation planners will have to address population-level energetic implications of shifting agricultural food resources and increased uncertainty in yearly precipitation patterns within the next 50 years.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2025

Increased mortality rates caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in a migratory raptor

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) has caused extensive mortalities in wild birds with a disproportionate impact on raptors since 2021. The population-level impact of HPAIV can be informed by telemetry studies that track large samples of initially healthy, wild birds. We leveraged movement data from 71 rough-legged hawks ( Buteo lagopus ) across all major North American migratory bird flyways concurrent with the 2022–2023 HPAIV outbreak and identified a total of 29 mortalities, of which 11 were confirmed, and an additional ~9 were estimated to have been caused by HPAIV. We estimated a 28% HPAIV cause-specific mortality rate among rough-legged hawks during a single year concurrent with the HPAIV outbreak in North America. Additionally, the overall mortality rate during the HPAIV outbreak (47%) was significantly higher than baseline annual mortality rates (3%–17%) suggesting that HPAIV-caused deaths were additive above baseline mortality levels. HPAIV mortalities were concentrated within the Central and Atlantic flyways during prebreeding migration and peaked in April 2022 when large-scale HPAIV mortalities were reported in other wild birds throughout North America. HPAIV exposure was most likely caused by scavenging or preying on infected waterfowl, as rough-legged hawks are known to opportunistically scavenge during the nonbreeding season. We utilized movement data to identify a continental-scale HPAIV cause-specific mortality event in rough-legged hawks that has the potential to exacerbate ongoing population declines. Our study highlights the usefulness of monitoring movement data to pinpoint sources of mortality that can help better understand the drivers of population change, even if studies are focused on other research questions.

Ecology and Evolution↗